20-03-2023

Probability
(Part 1)

Basics Concepts
Equation

Biostatistics & Research Methodology

B Pharm 8th Sem | M. Pharm. | PhD

Probability
Probability means possibility or Chance to happen
It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a random event
P = 0 to 1
Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favorable outcomes
-----------------------------------------------------
Total Number of outcomes
P(E) = A/S
P(Head) = 1 (head)/2= ½ = 0.5
p+q=1
P- Probability of Success
q – Probability of Failure

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Probability
Example 2- calculate the probability head, if Two coin are tossed
H T x H T= HH, HT, TH, TT ----------- (S)n = 4 Possibility
P (0 head) = ¼ = 0.25
P(1 heads) = ½ = 0.5
P (2 heads) = ¼ = 0.25
P(head) = ¾ = 0.75
Example 3. A First aid box contains 10 tab of paracetamol and 20 tab of aspirin,
what is the probability of paracetamol to picked from box?
P (pcm) = 10/30 = 1/3 = 0.33

Probability
P(E) = n(A)/S
Example 4. A First aid box contains 10 tab of paracetamol and 20 tab of aspirin,
1. what is the probability of paracetamol to picked from box in first event?
P (pcm) = 10/30 = 1/3 = 0.33
2. . what is the probability of aspirin to picked from box in second event
P = 20 /30-1 = 20/29

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Probability
Theoretical: It is Theoretical listing of outcomes and probabilities
(Obtained from Mathematical model)
E.x.- Toss (probability of Head)- P = n(A)/n(S)
1/2
p + q = 1, (p = ½ and q = 1-1/2 = ½)
Experimental: An empirical Listing of outcomes and their observed
relative frequency

Probability
Subjective listing of outcomes associated with their subjective or contrived
probabilities representing the degree of conviction of the decision maker

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Probability
Distribution
(Part 2)

Binomial Disribution

Biostatistics & Research Methodology

B Pharm 8th Sem | M. Pharm. | PhD

Probability Distribution
Binomial
Distribution
Probability Distribution

Binomial Negative
Distribution
Multinomial
Distribution
Poisson
Distribution
Normal
Distribution
Hypergeometric
Distribution

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Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that
describe only two possible results (Fail of Success) in a fixed number of
independent trials or experiments, where each trial has only two
possible outcomes and the probability of success remains constant
throughout all trials.
For example, flipping a coin is a binomial experiment since there are
only two possible outcomes (heads or tails) and the probability of
getting heads (success) is always 0.5.

Binomial Distribution
A single outcome (Success or Fail) test is also called a Bernoulli trial or
Bernoulli experiments. And series of experiments is called Bernoulli
process
Some important properties of the binomial distribution include:
Mean, μ = np
Variance, σ2 = npq
Standard Deviation σ= √(npq)
As the number of trials increases, the binomial distribution
approaches a normal distribution.

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Binomial Distribution
Example: roll the coin 3 time, so possible combinations: 0 heads – 1/8
HT x HT x HT 1 heads – 3/8

(HH HT TH TT) x HT 2 heads – 3/8

3 heads- 1/8
HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT

P(r) = nCr x q(n-r) x pr

nC = n!/ r! x (n-r)!
r

P(r) = probability of defined r success in n trial

(probability in binomial distribution)
p = probability of success in single trail
q = probability of failure in single trial (q = 1-p)
n = no. of trial
r = no. of success in n trial

Binomial Distribution
Example 1: roll the coin 3 time, so find out the possibilities of P(r) = nCr x q(n-r) x pr
nC = n!/ r! x (n-r)
a) exactly 1 heads r

b) at least 2 heads:

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Binomial Distribution
Example 1: roll the coin 3 time, so find out the possibilities of P(r) = nCr x q(n-r) x pr
nC = n!/ r! x (n-r)
a) exactly 1 heads r

b) at least 2 heads:

Probability
Distribution
(Part 3)

Poisson’s Distribution

Biostatistics & Research Methodology

B Pharm 8th Sem | M. Pharm. | PhD

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Poisson Distribution
In Statistics, a Poisson distribution is a probability distribution that is used to show how
many times an event is likely to occur over a specific period.
In other words, it is a count distribution.
A state has 1000 pharma companies and average 1 factory has closed during 1
year. If their will be 2000 pharma companies then what will be the probability of 5
company will be closed.

e = 2.7183
m = np
r = expected success in n trial
n = no. of trials

Poisson Distribution
Example: 10% tablet will be defective produced by dry granulation method. Find out
the probability that in a 20 tablet chosen at random, exactly 6 will be defective by
using Poisson distribution

e = 2.7183
m = np
r = expected success in n trial
n = no. of trials

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Poisson Distribution
Example: A state has 1000 pharma companies and average 1 factory has closed
during 1 year. If their will be 2000 pharma companies then what will be the
probability of 5 company will be closed.

e = 2.7183
m = np
r = expected success in n trial
n = no. of trials

Probability
Distribution
(Part 4)

Normal Distribution

Biostatistics & Research Methodology

B Pharm 8th Sem | M. Pharm. | PhD

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Normal Distribution
The Normal distribution curve is Bell Shaped
It is also called Gaussian distribution
Symmetrical
Central Tendency located at the center of graph
a normal distribution with a mean 0 and standard
deviation of 1 is called the standard normal
-2σ -1σ X +1σ +2σ
distribution
Mean = Mode = Median
Two Tails of the distribution extended indefinitely but
never touch the X axis

Normal Distribution
The % distribution of area under
standard normal curve is broadly as
follow:
±1σ – 68.27%
±2σ – 95.44%
±3σ – 99.73%
This is observed by Z score
+2σ +1σ X -1σ -2σ
𝑋 − 𝑋ത
𝑍=
𝜎

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Normal Distribution
This is observed by Z score

𝑋 − 𝑋ത
𝑍=
𝜎
Z<0 , data < mean or Z>0 , data > mean.
Z = 0, data = mean
Z = 1, represents an element or data, which is 1 -2σ -1σ X +1σ +2σ
standard deviation greater than the mean; a z-
score equal to 2 signifies 2 standard deviations
greater than the mean; etc

Normal Distribution
Q. Avg % of the class (n =100) is 55% with variance
of 16%, calculate the probability that how many
students have > 60%

𝑋 − 𝑋ത
𝑍=
𝜎

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Normal Distribution

Normal Distribution
Q. Avg Weight of the College (n = 500) is 65 kg
with variance of 2, calculate the probability that
how many students have < 60 kg

𝑋 − 𝑋ത
𝑍=
𝜎

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