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BS Practicl

The document contains sales data from 2000 to 2005 as well as forecasted sales data from 2006 to 2020. It performs linear regression analysis to forecast future sales and provides confidence bounds for the forecasts. Scatter plots and linear trend lines are shown for the original data and forecast.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
49 views43 pages

BS Practicl

The document contains sales data from 2000 to 2005 as well as forecasted sales data from 2006 to 2020. It performs linear regression analysis to forecast future sales and provides confidence bounds for the forecasts. Scatter plots and linear trend lines are shown for the original data and forecast.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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90 Ques score

56 50
92 60
79 50
83 60
96 80
56 50
60 80
80 40
77 Mean 76.9 20
Median 79.5
Mode 56 56
Standard D 14.81328
Variance 219.4333
Quartiles 64.25 79.5
q2 79.5
q3 88.25
percentile 57.4
64.25
Sales
30
60
40
50
60
30
70
50
60

correlation 0.32941429769753
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
coefficient of correlation Multiple R 0.32941429769753
coefficient of determination R Square 0.10851377952756
Adjusted R Square -0.01884139482565
Standard Error 14.2747426934824
Observations 9

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 173.622047244 173.6220472
Residual 7 1426.37795276 203.768279
Total 8 1600

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat


Intercept 36.496062992126 15.383757962 2.372376313
X 0.24803149606299 0.2687031051 0.923068961

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals


1 48.8976377952756 -18.897637795
2 51.3779527559055 8.62204724409
3 48.8976377952756 -8.8976377953
4 51.3779527559055 -1.3779527559
5 56.3385826771654 3.66141732283
6 48.8976377952756 -18.897637795
7 56.3385826771654 13.6614173228
8 46.4173228346457 3.58267716535
9 41.4566929133858 18.5433070866

75 given in question as X 55.0984251968504 Y=a+bx

X on Y Correlation 0.32941429769753
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.32941429769753
R Square 0.10851377952756
Adjusted R Square -0.01884139482565
Standard Error 18.9584968595773
Observations 9

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 306.25 306.25
Residual 7 2515.97222222 359.4246032
Total 8 2822.22222222

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat


Intercept 32.5694444444444 24.5262514355 1.327942206
Sales 0.4375 0.47396242149 0.923068961

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted score Residuals


1 45.6944444444444 4.30555555556
2 58.8194444444444 1.18055555556
3 50.0694444444444 -0.0694444444
4 54.4444444444444 5.55555555556
5 58.8194444444444 21.1805555556
6 45.6944444444444 4.30555555556
7 63.1944444444444 16.8055555556
8 54.4444444444444 -14.444444444
9 58.8194444444444 -38.819444444
X Line Fit Plot
80
60
40
Axis Title
20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
X

F Significance F
0.852056307 0.386682391

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


0.049433159 0.1192558345 72.87287015 0.1192558345 72.87287015
0.386682391 -0.387350383 0.883413375 -0.387350383 0.8834133749
Sales Line Fit Plot
100

50 score
score

Predicted score
0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Sales

F Significance F
0.852056307 0.386682391

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


0.225859794 -25.4259245 90.56481339 -25.4259245 90.56481339
0.386682391 -0.683243036 1.558243036 -0.683243036 1.5582430362
X Line Fit Plot

Y
Predicted Y

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
X
X Y
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500
2005 2800
X Y Forecast(Y) Lower Confidence Bound(Y) Upper Confidence Bound(Y)
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
8000
2003 2300
2004 2500
2005 2800 2800 2800.00 2800.00 7000
2006 3071.2049085 2901.69 3250.81
2007 3331.2049085 3155.20 3532.28
6000
2008 3591.2049085 3399.26 3779.82
2009 3851.2049085 3679.85 4026.19
2010 4111.2049085 3936.83 4301.76 5000
2011 4371.2049085 4200.10 4540.20
2012 4631.2049085 4451.44 4805.32
4000
2013 4891.2049085 4701.66 5063.88
2014 5151.2049085 4964.27 5336.19
2015 5411.2049085 5228.91 5593.80 3000
2016 5671.2049085 5485.43 5850.99
2017 5931.2049085 5753.27 6106.71
2000
2018 6191.2049085 6022.67 6365.81
2019 6451.2049085 6264.15 6617.42
2020 6711.2049085 6525.21 6896.54 1000

0
2000 2
8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Y Forecast(Y) Lower Confidence Bound(Y) Upper Confidence Bound(Y)


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Upper Confidence Bound(Y)


score Sales
50 30
60 60
50 40
60 50
80 60
50 30
80 70
40 50
20 60

Correlation 0.329414

Regression

6 48.89764 -18.89764
7 56.33858 13.66142
8 46.41732 3.582677
9 41.45669 18.54331
score Sales
50 30
60 60
50 40
60 50
80 60
50 30
80 70
40 50
20 60

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.731092
R Square 0.534496
Adjusted R 0.456912
Standard E 10.74273
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 795.063 795.063 6.88926 0.039336
Residual 6 692.437 115.4062
Total 7 1487.5

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 5.798319 16.79916 0.345155 0.741756 -35.30774 46.90438 -35.30774
score 0.731092 0.278539 2.62474 0.039336 0.049532 1.412653 0.049532

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Sales
Residuals
1 42.35294 -12.35294
2 49.66387 10.33613
3 42.35294 -2.352941
4 49.66387 0.336134
5 64.28571 -4.285714
6 42.35294 -12.35294
7 64.28571 5.714286
8 35.04202 14.95798
score Line Fit Plot
80
60
40 Sales
Sales

Predicted Sales
20
0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
score

Upper 95.0%
46.90438
1.412653
Marks Students
75 24
45 50
89 30
90 20
48 15

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.344266
R Square 0.118519
Adjusted R-0.175308
Standard E 14.71366
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 87.32493 87.32493 0.403364 0.570486
Residual 3 649.4751 216.4917
Total 4 736.8

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 42.70494 24.37335 1.752117 0.178045 -34.86192 120.2718
Marks -0.214769 0.33816 -0.635109 0.570486 -1.290945 0.861408

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Students
Residuals
1 26.5973 -2.597296
2 33.04035 16.95965
3 23.59053 6.409465
4 23.37577 -3.375766
5 32.39605 -17.39605

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.344266
R Square 0.118519
Adjusted R-0.175308
Standard E 23.58544
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 224.3805 224.3805 0.403364 0.570486
Residual 3 1668.819 556.2732
Total 4 1893.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 84.74131 26.35787 3.215029 0.048769 0.858798 168.6238
Students -0.551846 0.868899 -0.635109 0.570486 -3.31707 2.213378

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Marks
Residuals
1 71.49701 3.502986
2 57.14902 -12.14902
3 68.18594 20.81406
4 73.7044 16.2956
5 76.46363 -28.46363
Marks Line Fit Plot
60
40
Students

Students
20 Predicted Students
0
Students Lin
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
80
Marks

Marks
40

0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Students
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-34.86192 120.2718
-1.290945 0.861408

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.344266
R Square 0.118519
Adjusted R-0.175308
Standard E 23.58544
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 224.3805 224.3805 0.403364
Residual 3 1668.819 556.2732
Total 4 1893.2
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 84.74131 26.35787 3.215029 0.048769
Students -0.551846 0.868899 -0.635109 0.570486

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% Observation
Predicted Marks
Residuals
0.858798 168.6238 1 71.49701 3.502986
-3.31707 2.213378 2 57.14902 -12.14902
3 68.18594 20.81406
4 73.7044 16.2956
5 76.46363 -28.46363
Students Line Fit Plot
100
80
Students Line Fit Plot Marks
60 Marks
40 Predicted Marks
80 20
0
Marks 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Marks

40 Predicted Marks
Students
0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Students

Significance F
0.570486
Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.858798 168.6238 0.858798 168.6238
-3.31707 2.213378 -3.31707 2.213378
t

Marks
redicted Marks
X Y
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500
X Y Forecast(Y) Lower Confidence Bound(Y) Upper Confidence Bound(Y)
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500 2500 2500.00 2500.00
2005 2845.1041544 2726.83 2967.57
2006 2940.2137767 2825.55 3065.93
2007 3285.323399 3164.60 3407.89
2008 3380.4330214 3251.11 3501.99
2009 3725.5426437 3591.47 3863.62
2010 3820.6522661 3678.30 3968.62
2011 4165.7618884 4022.65 4310.10
2012 4260.8715107 4127.18 4410.23
2013 4605.9811331 4438.46 4769.08
2014 4701.0907554 4545.27 4859.39
2015 5046.2003778 4858.79 5220.72
2016 5141.3100001 4951.82 5339.81
2017 5486.4196224 5285.22 5674.44
2018 5581.5292448 5378.51 5802.59
2019 5926.6388671 5694.25 6151.49
2020 6021.7484895 5797.57 6262.27
7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Y Forecast(Y) Lower Confidence Bound(Y) Upper Confiden
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
nce Bound(Y) Upper Confidence Bound(Y)
score Sales
50 30
60 60
50 40 SUMMARY OUTPUT
60 50
80 60 Regression Statistics
50 30 Multiple R 0.329414
80 70 R Square 0.108514
40 50 Adjusted R-0.018841
20 60 Standard E 14.27474
Observatio 9

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 173.622 173.622
Residual 7 1426.378 203.7683
Total 8 1600

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 36.49606 15.38376 2.372376
score 0.248031 0.268703 0.923069

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Sales
Residuals
1 48.89764 -18.89764
2 51.37795 8.622047
3 48.89764 -8.897638
4 51.37795 -1.377953
5 56.33858 3.661417
6 48.89764 -18.89764
7 56.33858 13.66142
8 46.41732 3.582677
9 41.45669 18.54331
score Line Fit Plot
80
60
40 Sales

Sales
Predicted Sales
20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
score
F Significance F
0.852056 0.386682

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
0.049433 0.119256 72.87287 0.119256 72.87287
0.386682 -0.38735 0.883413 -0.38735 0.883413

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.329414
R Square 0.108514
Adjusted R-0.018841
Standard E 18.9585
Observatio 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 306.25 306.25 0.852056
Residual 7 2515.972 359.4246
Total 8 2822.222

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 32.56944 24.52625 1.327942 0.22586
Sales 0.4375 0.473962 0.923069 0.386682

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted score
Residuals
1 45.69444 4.305556
2 58.81944 1.180556
3 50.06944 -0.069444
4 54.44444 5.555556
5 58.81944 21.18056
6 45.69444 4.305556
7 63.19444 16.80556
8 54.44444 -14.44444
9 58.81944 -38.81944
t Plot
Sales Line Fit Plot
100
Sales
Predicted Sales score
50
score

Predicted score
80 90 0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Sales

Significance F
0.386682

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
-25.42592 90.56481 -25.42592 90.56481
-0.683243 1.558243 -0.683243 1.558243
Year Value
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500
Timeline Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300 7000
2004 2500 2500 2500.00 2500.00
2005 2845.1042 2723.00 2964.18
2006 2940.2138 2812.23 3051.13 6000

2007 3285.3234 3165.10 3408.52


2008 3380.433 3265.33 3511.08
5000
2009 3725.5426 3589.63 3853.33
2010 3820.6523 3691.47 3955.33
2011 4165.7619 4018.90 4311.58
4000
2012 4260.8715 4110.01 4406.28
2013 4605.9811 4441.07 4774.63
2014 4701.0908 4540.81 4870.59 3000
2015 5046.2004 4854.59 5213.86
2016 5141.31 4956.92 5327.10
2017 5486.4196 5275.38 5678.61 2000
2018 5581.5292 5373.75 5795.89
2019 5926.6389 5694.91 6151.87
2020 6021.7485 5772.43 6244.16 1000

0
2000 2001
7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound


2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Upper Confidence Bound


score Sales
50 30
60 60
50 40
60 50
80 60
50 30
80 70 SUMMARY OUTPUT
40 50
20 60 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.329414
R Square 0.108514
Adjusted R-0.018841
Standard E 14.27474
Observatio 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 173.622 173.622 0.852056 0.386682
Residual 7 1426.378 203.7683
Total 8 1600

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 36.49606 15.38376 2.372376 0.049433 0.119256
score 0.248031 0.268703 0.923069 0.386682 -0.38735

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Sales
Residuals
1 48.89764 -18.89764
2 51.37795 8.622047
3 48.89764 -8.897638
4 51.37795 -1.377953
5 56.33858 3.661417
6 48.89764 -18.89764
7 56.33858 13.66142
8 46.41732 3.582677
9 41.45669 18.54331
score Line Fit Plot
80
60
40 Sales
Sales

Predicted Sales
20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
score
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
72.87287 0.119256 72.87287
0.883413 -0.38735 0.883413
Timeline Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500 2500 2500.00 2500.00
2005 2845.1041544 2716.04 2950.42
2006 2940.2137767 2818.65 3064.38
2007 3285.323399 3169.76 3411.33
2008 3380.4330214 3247.48 3511.26
2009 3725.5426437 3594.96 3851.68
2010 3820.6522661 3682.14 3968.50
2011 4165.7618884 4034.93 4304.93
2012 4260.8715107 4097.59 4425.75
2013 4605.9811331 4442.20 4765.30
2014 4701.0907554 4544.40 4877.38
2015 5046.2003778 4863.00 5235.45
2016 5141.3100001 4949.24 5339.93
2017 5486.4196224 5265.13 5676.86
2018 5581.5292448 5343.41 5783.80
2019 5926.6388671 5710.76 6150.09
2020 6021.7484895 5796.47 6262.47

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20

Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound


Time Series
Year Value
2000 1500
2001 2000
2002 2100
2003 2300
2004 2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Upper Confidence Bound


score Sales
50 30 90
60 60 56
50 40 92
60 50 79
80 60 83
50 30 96
80 70 56
40 50 60
20 60 80
77

Mean 76.9
Median 79.5
Mode 56
Standard Deviation 14.81328232815
Variance 219.4333333333
Quartiles: Q1 64.25
Q2 79.5
Q3 88.25
Percentile 64.25
Correlation 0.329414297698

Regression CASE 1:
Sales Independent
Score Dependent Sales Line Fit Plot
SUMMARY OUTPUT 100
80 score
Regression Statistics 60 Predicted score
score

Multiple R 0.329414297698 40
20
R Square 0.108513779528 0
Adjusted R Square -0.01884139483 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Standard Error 18.95849685958 Sales
Observations 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 306.25 306.25 0.852056307 0.386682391
Residual 7 2515.97222222 359.4246032
Total 8 2822.22222222

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 32.56944444444 24.5262514355 1.327942206 0.225859794 -25.4259245
Sales 0.4375 0.47396242149 0.923068961 0.386682391 -0.683243036
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted score Residuals


1 45.69444444444 4.30555555556
2 58.81944444444 1.18055555556
3 50.06944444444 -0.0694444444
4 54.44444444444 5.55555555556
5 58.81944444444 21.1805555556
6 45.69444444444 4.30555555556
7 63.19444444444 16.8055555556
8 54.44444444444 -14.444444444
9 58.81944444444 -38.819444444

CASE 2:
Sales Dependent
Score Independent score Line Fit Plot
80
SUMMARY OUTPUT
60
40 Sales
Sales

Regression Statistics 20 Predicted Sales


Multiple R 0.329414297698 0
R Square 0.108513779528 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Adjusted R Square -0.01884139483 score
Standard Error 14.27474269348
Observations 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 173.622047244 173.6220472 0.852056307 0.386682391
Residual 7 1426.37795276 203.768279
Total 8 1600

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 36.49606299213 15.383757962 2.372376313 0.049433159 0.1192558345
score 0.248031496063 0.2687031051 0.923068961 0.386682391 -0.387350383

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals


1 48.89763779528 -18.897637795
2 51.37795275591 8.62204724409
3 48.89763779528 -8.8976377953
4 51.37795275591 -1.3779527559
5 56.33858267717 3.66141732283
6 48.89763779528 -18.897637795
7 56.33858267717 13.6614173228
8 46.41732283465 3.58267716535
9 41.45669291339 18.5433070866
ot

score
Predicted score

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


90.56481339 -25.4259245 90.56481339
1.558243036 -0.683243036 1.5582430362
e Fit Plot

Sales
Predicted Sales

70 80 90

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


72.87287015 0.1192558345 72.87287015
0.883413375 -0.387350383 0.8834133749

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