L1 RVs-1
L1 RVs-1
𝑝𝑥 (𝑥) ≤ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
𝑝𝑥 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.05
𝑝𝑥 2 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 0.20
𝑝𝑥 3 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 0.65
𝑝𝑥 4 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 = 0.10
Note: the random variable (with an uncertain value) is denoted by a capital letter, whereas a specific value or realization of the variable is denoted
by a lower case letter.
Basic Functions
o The cumulative distribution function (CDF): 𝐹𝑥 (𝑥) is the total sum
(or integral) of all probability functions (continuous and discrete)
corresponding to a value less than or equal to 𝑥.
𝑝𝑥 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.05
𝑝𝑥 2 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 0.20 𝐹𝑥 𝑥 = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥)
𝑝𝑥 3 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 0.65
𝑝𝑥 4 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 = 0.10
0 ≤ 𝐹𝑥 𝑥 ≤ 1
3. If 𝑥1 < 𝑥2 , then 𝐹𝑥 𝑥1 ≤ 𝐹𝑥 𝑥2 ,
4. then 𝐹𝑥 −∞ = 0.
5. then 𝐹𝑥 +∞ = 1.
6. For continuous random variables,
𝑃 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏 ≤ 𝐹𝑥 𝑏 − 𝐹𝑥 𝑎 = න 𝑓𝑥 𝜉 𝑑𝜉
𝑎
𝜇𝑥 = න 𝑥 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
−∞
𝜇𝑥 = 𝑥𝑖 𝑝𝑥 𝑥𝑖
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖
Parameters of a Random Variable
Basic Parameters
The expected value of 𝑋 is commonly denoted by E 𝑋 and is equal to the mean
value of the variable as previously defined.
𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇𝑥
The nth moment of 𝑋 is defined for continuous random variables as
+∞
𝐸 𝑋 𝑛 = න 𝑥 𝑛 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
−∞
𝐸 𝑋 𝑛 = 𝑥𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑥 𝑥𝑖
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖
Parameters of a Random Variable
Basic Parameters
The variance of 𝑋 is commonly denoted as by 𝜎𝑥2 , is defined as the expected value of
𝑋 − 𝜇𝑥 2 and is equal to.
+∞
𝜎𝑥2 = න 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥 2 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
−∞
for a continuous RV and
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥 2𝑝
𝑥 𝑥𝑖
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑥 2𝑝
𝑥 𝑥𝑖
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖
1 2
1 − ( x)
f (x) = exp 2 - x
2
Φ(𝑧) = 𝐹𝑧 (𝑧)
Standard Normal Random Variable
o CDF of N(0,1)
o The value of the standard normal variate at a cumulative
probability p would be denoted as.
s p = F −1 ( p)
Φ𝑍 = 1 − Φ −𝑍
Standard Normal Random Variable
o Let X be a random variable. The standard form of X, denoted by Z, is
defined as
𝑋 − 𝜇𝑋
𝑍=
𝜎𝑋
𝑥−𝜇𝑥
𝐹𝑋 𝑋 = 𝜙 = 𝐹𝑍 𝑧
𝜎𝑋
1 𝑥−𝜇𝑋 1 1300−1500 1
d) 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 = 𝜙 = 𝜙 −1
𝑥−𝜇𝑥 𝜎𝑋 𝜎𝑋 200 200 200
a) 𝐹𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 1 1 −1 𝑧 2 1
𝜎𝑥
𝑓𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 −1 = 𝑒 2 = 0.242 = 0.00121
1300 − 1500 200 2𝜋 200
𝐹𝑥 1300 = 𝜙 = 𝜙(−1)
200
From Appendix B, 𝜙 −1 = 0.159
1 𝑥−𝜇𝑋 1 1500−1500 1
e) 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 = 𝜙 = 𝜙 0
𝜎𝑋 𝜎𝑋 200 200 200
𝑥−𝜇𝑥
b) 𝐹𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 1 1 −1 𝑧 2 1
𝜎𝑥 𝑓𝑥 𝑥 = 𝜙 0 = 𝑒 2 = 0.399 = 0.00199
1900 − 1500 200 2𝜋 200
𝐹𝑥 1900 = 𝜙 = 𝜙(+2)
200
From Appendix B, 𝜙 2 = 1 − 𝜙 −2
𝜙 2 = 1 − 0.0228 = 0.977
Lognormal Random Variable
o Lognormal distribution
1 1 ln x − l
2
f (x) = exp −
(z x ) 2 2 z
x0
𝜎𝑥 30 ln 𝑥 − 𝜇ln 𝑥
𝑉𝑥 = = = 0.12 𝐹𝑥 (200) = 𝜙
𝜇𝑥 250 𝜎ln 𝑥
ln 200 − 5.51
2 2 𝐹𝑥 200 = 𝜙 = 𝜙(−1.77)
𝜎ln 𝑥 = ln 𝑉𝑥 + 1 = 0.0143 0.1196
𝐹𝑥 200 = 0.0384
𝜎ln 𝑥 = 0.1196
1 ln 𝑥 − 𝜇ln 𝑥
1 2 𝑓𝑥 (200) = 𝜙
𝜇ln 𝑥 = ln 𝜇𝑥 − 𝜎ln 𝑥 𝑥𝜎ln 𝑥 𝜎ln 𝑥
2 1
𝜇ln 𝑥 = ln 250 − 0.5 0.0143 = 5.51 𝑓𝑥 200 = 𝜙 −1.77
200 0.1196
0.0833
𝑓𝑥 200 = = 0.00348
23.92
Gamma Distribution
o Gamma distribution
𝜆 𝜆𝑥 𝑘−1 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥
𝑓𝑋 𝑥 = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 > 0
Γ 𝑘
2 1
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑢2 Γ 1 − − Γ2 1 − 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑘 > 2
𝑘 𝑘
2 1 2 1
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑤 − 𝑢 2
Γ 1+ − Γ2 1 + 𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑢 − 𝜀 2
Γ 1+ − Γ2 1 +
𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘
Probability Distribution Models
o Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)
distribution
1
−
𝜉 𝜉
𝐺 (𝑥 ) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 1 − (𝑥 − 𝜇)
𝜎
a) c)
1 1
𝜏= = = 0.47 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑘𝑒 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑠
𝑣 2.14
or
b)
𝑃 𝑁 ≥1 = 1−𝑃 𝑁 =0
3
2.14 1
𝑃 𝑁 = 3 𝑖𝑛 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 𝑒− 2.14 1
3!
therefore,
0
𝑃 𝑁 = 3 𝑖𝑛 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 0.192 2.14 1
𝑃 𝑁 ≥1 = 1− 𝑒− 2.14 1
0!
− 2.14 1
𝑃 𝑁 ≥1 = 1−𝑒
𝑃 𝑁 ≥ 1 = 0.88
Other Probability Distribution Models
o Bernoulli Sequence and the Binomial Distribution
o Geometric Distribution
o Negative Binomial Distribution
o Poisson Process and the Poisson Distribution
o Exponential Distribution
o Geometric Distribution
o Gamma Distribution
o Hypergeometric Distribution
o Beta Distribution
Common Distributions and Their Parameters
Distribution PDF or PMF Parameters Relations to moments
𝑎+𝑏
𝜇𝑥 =
1 2
Uniform 𝑓(𝑥 ) = ; 𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏 a,b
𝑏−𝑎 2
1
𝜎𝑥 = (𝑏 − 𝑎 )2
12
1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2 𝜇𝑥 = 𝜇
( )
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − ;
Gaussian 2𝜋𝜎 2 𝜎 m ,s
(Normal) 𝜎𝑥2 = 𝜎 2
−∞ ≤ 𝑥 ≤ +∞
1
1 1 𝑙𝑛𝑥 − 𝜆 2 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝜆 + 𝜁 2
2
Lognormal 𝑓(𝑥 ) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −
2 𝜁
; l,z
𝜁𝑥 2𝜋 2
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝜇𝑥2 𝑒 𝜁 − 1 39/71
Common Distributions and Their Parameters
Distribution PDF or PMF Parameters Relations to moments
𝑛 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑛𝑝
Binomial 𝑓(𝑥 ) = (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 ; p
𝑘
𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
𝑥 = 0,1,2, ⋯ 𝑛
0.5772
Gumbel 𝑓(𝑥 ) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝑒 −(𝑥−𝑢 ) 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑢 +
𝛼
(Type I u,a
2
largest) 𝜋
𝜎𝑥2 = 2
6𝛼
1
𝜇𝑥 = 𝜀 + (𝑥 − 𝜀 )Γ 1 +
Weibull 𝑘 𝑥−𝜀 𝑘−1 𝑥−𝜀 𝑘 𝑘
−
(Type III ( )
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 𝑤 −𝜀 ;
k,w 2
𝑤−𝜀 𝑤−𝜀 2 2
𝜎𝑥 = (𝑤 − 𝜀 ) Γ 1 +
smallest) 𝑘
𝑥≥𝜀
1
−Γ 2 1 +
𝑘
40/71
Probability Papers
o Consider a normal random variable 𝑥 with mean value 𝜇𝑥 and
standard deviation 𝜎𝑥 .
o The transformation is such that each point on the original CDF can
only move vertically up or down.
o All CDFs are non-decreasing functions of the random variable and thus has
an “S-shape”. The basic idea is to re-define the vertical scale so that the
CDF will plot as a straight line.