probability+ [213 marks]

Jae Hee plays a game involving a biased six-sided die.

The faces of the die are labelled −3, −1, 0, 1, 2 and 5.
The score for the game, X, is the number which lands face up after the die is
rolled.
The following table shows the probability distribution for X.

1a. Find the exact value of p. [1 mark]

Markscheme
4 2
( )
18 9
A1
[1 mark]
 Jae Hee plays the game once.

1b. Calculate the expected score. [2 marks]

Markscheme
1 4 3 7
−3 × 18
+ (−1) × 18
+0× 18
+…+5× 18
(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for their correct substitution into the formula for expected
value.
= 1.83 ( 33
18
, 1.83333 …) A1
[2 marks]
1c. Jae Hee plays the game twice and adds the two scores together. [3 marks]
Find the probability Jae Hee has a total score of −3.

Markscheme
1 3
2× 18
× 18
(M1)(M1)
1 3
Note: Award (M1) for 18 × 18
, award (M1) for multiplying their product by 2.
1
= ( 6 , 0.0185185 … , 1.85%
54 324
) A1
[3 marks]

Mr Burke teaches a mathematics class with 15 students. In this class there are 6
female students and 9 male students.
Each day Mr Burke randomly chooses one student to answer a homework
question.

2a. Find the probability that on any given day Mr Burke chooses a female [1 mark]
student to answer a question.
 Markscheme
6
15
(0.4, 25 ) A1
[1 mark]

In the first month, Mr Burke will teach his class 20 times.

2b. Find the probability he will choose a female student 8 times. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(X = 8) (M1)
Note: Award (M1) for evidence of recognizing binomial probability. eg P(X =
6
8), X ∼ B(20, 15 ).
0.180 (0.179705…) A1
[2 marks]
2c. Find the probability he will choose a male student at most 9 times. [3 marks]

Markscheme
9
P(male) = 15 (0.6) A1
P(X ≤ 9) = 0.128 (0.127521…) (M1)A1
Note: Award (M1) for evidence of correct approach eg, P(X ≤ 9).
[3 marks]
 Mr Burke teaches a mathematics class with 15 students. In this class there are 6
female students and 9 male students.
Each day Mr Burke randomly chooses one student to answer a homework
question.
In the first month, Mr Burke will teach his class 20 times.

3a. Find the probability he will choose a female student 8 times. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(X = 8) (M1)
Note: Award (M1) for evidence of recognizing binomial probability. eg, P(X =
6
8), X ∼ B(20, 15 ).
= 0.180 (0.179705…) A1
[2 marks]
3b. The Head of Year, Mrs Smith, decides to select a student at random from [4 marks]
the year group to read the notices in assembly. There are 80 students in
total in the year group. Mrs Smith calculates the probability of picking a male
student 8 times in the first 20 assemblies is 0.153357 correct to 6 decimal places.
Find the number of male students in the year group.

Markscheme
let x be the number of male students
x
recognize that probability of selecting a male is equal to 80 (A1)
12
(set up equation 20 C8 ( 80
x ) ( 80−x )
8
80
=) 0.153357 (M1)

number of male students = 37 (M1)A1

Note: Award (M1)A0 for 27.
[4 marks]
 The diagram below shows part of the screen from a weather forecasting website
showing the data for town A. The percentages on the bottom row represent the
likelihood of some rain during the hour leading up to the time given. For example
there is a 69% chance (a probability of 0. 69) of rain falling on any point in town A
between 0900 and 1000.

Paula works at a building site in the area covered by this page of the website from
0900 to 1700. She has lunch from 1300 to 1400.

4a. Write down the probability it rains during Paula’s lunch break. [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.
0. 27 A1
[1 mark]
 In the following parts you may assume all probabilities are independent.
Paula needs to work outside between 1000 and 1300.

4b. Find the probability it will rain in each of the three hours Paula is working [2 marks]
outside.

Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.
0. 78 × 0. 72 × 0. 48 (M1)
= 0. 270(0. 269568) A1
[2 marks]

Paula will also spend her lunchtime outside.

4c. Find the probability it will not rain while Paula is outside. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.
0. 22 × 0. 28 × 0. 52 × 0. 73 (M1)
= 0. 0234(0. 02338336) A1
[2 marks]

4d. Find the probability it will rain at least once while Paula is outside. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.
1 − 0. 02338336 (M1)
= 0. 977(0. 976616 …) A1
[2 marks]

9 1 9
 A disc is divided into 9 sectors, number 1 to 9. The angles at the centre of each of
the sectors un form an arithmetic sequence, with u1 being the largest angle.

5a. 9 [1 mark]
Σ
Write down the value of i=1ui .

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
360° A1
[1 mark]

1
 It is given that u9 = 13 u1 .

5b. Find the value of u1 . [4 marks]

Markscheme
EITHER
360 = 92 (u1 + u9 ) M1
360 = 92 (u1 + 13 u1 )= 6u1 M1A1
OR
360 = 92 (2u1 + 8d) M1
u9 = 13 u1 = u1 + 8d ⇒ u1 = −12d M1
Substitute this value 360 = 92 (2u1 − 8 × u1 9
12 )(= 2 × 43 u1 = 6u1 ) A1
THEN
u1 = 60° A1
[4 marks]
5c. A game is played in which the arrow attached to the centre of the disc is [2 marks]
spun and the sector in which the arrow stops is noted. If the arrow stops
in sector 1 the player wins 10 points, otherwise they lose 2 points.
Let X be the number of points won
Find E(X).

Markscheme
60 300
E(X) = 10 × 360
−2× 360
= 0 M1A1
[2 marks]

The weights of apples on a tree can be modelled by a normal distribution with a

mean of 85 grams and a standard deviation of 7. 5 grams.

6a. Find the probability that an apple from the tree has a weight greater [2 marks]
than 90 grams.
 Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
Let the weight of an apple be X
P(X > 90)= 0. 252(0. 252492 …) (M1)A1
[2 marks]

A sample of apples are taken from 2 trees, A and B, in different parts of the
orchard.
The data is shown in the table below.

The owner of the orchard wants to know whether the mean weight of the apples
from tree A(μA ) is greater than the mean weight of the apples from tree B(μB )
so sets up the following test:
H0 : μA = μB and H1 : μA > μB

6b. Find the p-value for the owner’s test. [2 marks]

 Markscheme
p-value = 0. 0189(0. 018947 …) (M1)A1
[2 marks]

6c. The test is performed at the 5% significance level. [2 marks]

State the conclusion of the test, giving a reason for your answer.

Markscheme
0. 0189 < 0. 05 R1
Sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis (that the weights of apples
from the two trees are equal) A1
[2 marks]
 The diagram below shows part of the screen from a weather forecasting website
showing the data for town A. The percentages on the bottom row represent the
likelihood of some rain during the hour leading up to the time given. For example
there is a 69% chance (a probability of 0. 69) of rain falling on any point in town A
between 0900 and 1000.

Paula works at a building site in the area covered by this page of the website from
0900 to 1700. She has lunch from 1300 to 1400.

7a. Write down the probability it rains during Paula’s lunch break. [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.

0. 27 A1

[1 mark]
 In the following parts you may assume all probabilities are independent.
Paula needs to work outside between 1000 and 1300 and will also spend her
lunchtime outside.

7b. Find the probability it will not rain while Paula is outside. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.

0. 22 × 0. 28 × 0. 52 × 0. 73 (M1)
= 0. 0234 (0. 02338336) A1

[2 marks]

7c. Find the probability it will rain at least once while Paula is outside. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.

1 − 0. 02338336 (M1)
= 0. 977 (0. 97661664) A1

[2 marks]

7d. Given it rains at least once while Paula is outside find the probability that[3 marks]
it rains during her lunch hour.

Markscheme
Note: Accept probabilities written as percentages throughout.

P ( r ains during lunch )

P(rains during lunch rains at least once )= P ( rains at least once )
M1A1

0.27
0.97661664
= 0. 276 (0. 276464) A1

[3 marks]
 A dice manufacturer claims that for a novelty die he produces the probability of
scoring the numbers 1 to 5 are all equal, and the probability of a 6 is two times
the probability of scoring any of the other numbers.

8a. Find the probability of scoring a six when rolling the novelty die. [3 marks]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
Let the probability of scoring 1, … , 5 be p ,
1
5p + 2p = 1 ⇒ p = 7
(M1)(A1)
2
Probability of 6 = 7
A1

[3 marks]

2 5
8b. Find the probability of scoring more than 2 sixes when this die is rolled 5 [4 marks]
times.

Markscheme
Let the number of sixes be X
2
X~B(5, 7
) (M1)

P(X > 2)= P(X ≥ 3) or P(X > 2)= 1 − P(X ≤ 2) (M1)

= 0. 145 (0. 144701 …) (M1)A1

[4 marks]

350
 To test the manufacture’s claim one of the novelty dice is rolled 350 times and the
numbers scored on the die are shown in the table below.

8c. Find the expected frequency for each of the numbers if the [2 marks]
manufacturer’s claim is true.

Markscheme
Expected frequency is 350 × p or 350 × 2p (M1)

A1

[2 marks]

2
 A χ2 goodness of fit test is to be used with a 5% significance level.

8d. Write down the null and alternative hypotheses. [2 marks]

Markscheme
H0 : The manufacture’s claim is correct A1
H1 : The manufacturer’s claim is not correct A1

[2 marks]

8e. State the degrees of freedom for the test. [1 mark]

Markscheme
Degrees of freedom = 5 A1

[1 mark]
8f. Determine the conclusion of the test, clearly justifying your answer. [4 marks]

Markscheme
p-value = 0. 0984 (0. 0984037 …) (M1)A1
0. 0984 > 0. 05 R1
Hence insufficient evidence to reject the manufacture’s claim. A1

[4 marks]
 Dana has collected some data regarding the heights h (metres) of waves against
a pier at 50 randomly chosen times in a single day. This data is shown in the table
below.

She wishes to perform a χ 2 -test at the 5% significance level to see if the height of
waves could be modelled by a normal distribution. Her null hypothesis is
H0 : The data can be modelled by a normal distribution.
From the table she calculates the mean of the heights in her sample to be
0. 828 m and the standard deviation of the heights sn to be 0. 257 m.

9a. Use the given value of sn to find the value of sn−1 . [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.

sn−1 = √ 50
49
× 0. 257 (M1)

Note: M1 is for the use of the correct formula

= 0. 260 A1

[2 marks]
 She calculates the expected values for each interval under this null hypothesis,
and some of these values are shown in the table below.

9b. Find the value of a and the value of b , giving your answers correct to [3 marks]
one decimal place.

Markscheme
Using x̄ = 0. 828 and sn−1 = 0. 260 (M1)
a = 7. 3, b = 7. 6 A1A1

[3 marks]

2 2
9c. Find the value of the χ 2 test statistic (χ2calc ) for this test. [2 marks]

Markscheme

χ2calc = 3. 35 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

9d. Determine the degrees of freedom for Dana’s test. [2 marks]

 Markscheme
Combining columns with expected values less than 5 leaves 7 cells (M1)
7−1−2= 4 A1

[2 marks]

9e. It is given that the critical value for this test is 9. 49. [2 marks]
State the conclusion of the test in context. Use your answer to part (c) to
justify your conclusion.

Markscheme
3. 35 < 9. 49 R1
hence insufficient evidence to reject H0 that the heights of the waves are
normally distributed. A1

Note: The A1 can be awarded independently of the R1.

[2 marks]
 The masses in kilograms of melons produced by a farm can be modelled by a
normal distribution with a mean of 2. 6 kg and a standard deviation of 0. 5 kg .

10a. Find the probability that a melon selected at random will have a mass [2 marks]
greater than 3. 0 kg .

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
Let
X represent the mass of a melon
P(X > 3. 0)= 0. 212 (0. 2118 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]
 Find the probability that two melons picked at random and independently of each
other will

10b. both have a mass greater than 3. 0 kg. [2 marks]

Markscheme
0. 2118 … × 0. 2118 … (M1)
= 0. 0449 (0. 04488 …) A1

[2 marks]

10c. have a total mass greater than 6. 0 kg. [2 marks]

 Markscheme
LetT represent the total mass
E(T )= 5. 2 A1

Var(T )= 0. 52 + 0. 52 = 0. 5 (M1)A1
T ~N(5. 2, 0. 5)
P(T > 6. 0)= 0. 129 (0. 1289 …) A1

[4 marks]

One year due to favourable weather conditions it is thought that the mean mass
of the melons has increased.
The owner of the farm decides to take a random sample of 16 melons to test this
hypothesis at the 5% significance level, assuming the standard deviation of the
masses of the melons has not changed.

10d. Write down the null and alternative hypotheses for the test. [1 mark]

Markscheme
Letμ be the mean mass of the melons produced by the farm.
H0 : μ = 2. 6 kg, H1 : μ > 2. 6 kg only A1

Note: AcceptH0 : The mean mass of melons produced by the farm is equal to
2. 6 kg
H1 : The mean mass of melons produced by the farm is greater than 2. 6 kg
Note: Award A0 if 2. 6 kg does not appear in the hypothesis.

[1 mark]
10e. Find the critical region for this test. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Under ¯¯¯~N(2. 6,
H0 X 0.52
16
) A1

¯¯¯ > a)= 0. 05

P(X (M1)

a = 2. 81 (2. 805606 …) (A1)

¯¯¯ > 2. 81
Critical region is X A1

[4 marks]
 Unknown to the farmer the favourable weather conditions have led to all the
melons having 10% greater mass than the model described above.

10f. Find the mean and standard deviation of the mass of the melons for this [3 marks]
year.

Markscheme
LetW represent the new mass of the melons
E(W )= 1. 1 × 2. 6 = 2. 86 A1
Standard deviation of W = 1. 1 × 0. 5 (M1)
= 0. 55 A1

Note: award M1A0 for Var(W )= 1. 12 × 0. 52 = 0. 3025

[3 marks]
10g. Find the probability of a Type II error in the owner’s test. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(Type II error) =
¯¯¯ < 2. 81 μ = 2. 86, σ =
P(X 0.55
4
) (M1)

= 0. 346 (0. 346204 …) A1

Note: Accept 0. 358 from use of the three‐figure answer to part (d)

[2 marks]
 An estate manager is responsible for stocking a small lake with fish. He begins by
introducing 1000 fish into the lake and monitors their population growth to
determine the likely carrying capacity of the lake.
After one year an accurate assessment of the number of fish in the lake is taken
and it is found to be 1200.
Let N be the number of fish t years after the fish have been introduced to the
lake.
Initially it is assumed that the rate of increase of N will be constant.

11a. Use this model to predict the number of fish in the lake when t = 8. [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior
examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new
MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to
formal exam papers.
N(8)= 1000 + 200 × 8 M1
= 2600 A1

[2 marks]

=8
 When t = 8 the estate manager again decides to estimate the number of fish in
the lake. To do this he first catches 300 fish and marks them, so they can be
recognized if caught again. These fish are then released back into the lake. A few
days later he catches another 300 fish, releasing each fish after it has been
checked, and finds 45 of them are marked.

11b. Assuming the proportion of marked fish in the second sample is equal [2 marks]
to the proportion of marked fish in the lake, show that the estate
manager will estimate there are now 2000 fish in the lake.

Markscheme
45 300
300
= N
M1A1
N = 2000 AG

[2 marks]
 Let X be the number of marked fish caught in the second sample, where X is
considered to be distributed as B(n, p). Assume the number of fish in the lake is
2000.

11c. Write down the value of n and the value of p. [2 marks]

Markscheme
300
n = 300, p = 2000
= 0. 15 A1A1

[2 marks]

11d. State an assumption that is being made for X to be considered as [1 mark]

following a binomial distribution.

Markscheme
Any valid reason for example: R1
Marked fish are randomly distributed, so p constant.
Each fish caught is independent of previous fish caught

[1 mark]
 The estate manager decides that he needs bounds for the total number of fish in
the lake.

11e. Show that an estimate for Var(X) is 38. 25. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Var(X) = np(1 − p) M1
300 1700
= 300 × 2000
× 2000
A1
= 38. 25 AG

[2 marks]

11f. Hence show that the variance of the proportion of marked fish in the [2 marks]
X
sample, Var( 300 ), is 0. 000425.
 Markscheme
X Var(X )
Var( 300 )= M1A1
3002
= 0. 000425 AG

[2 marks]

The estate manager feels confident that the proportion of marked fish in the lake
will be within 1. 5 standard deviations of the proportion of marked fish in the
sample and decides these will form the upper and lower bounds of his estimate.

11g. Taking the value for the variance given in (d) (ii) as a good [2 marks]
approximation for the true variance, find the upper and lower bounds
for the proportion of marked fish in the lake.

Markscheme
0. 15 ± 1. 5√0. 000425 (M1)
0. 181 and 0. 119 A1

[2 marks]
11h. Hence find upper and lower bounds for the number of fish in the lake [2 marks]
when t = 8.

Markscheme
300 300
N
= 0. 181 … , N
= 0. 119 … M1
Lower bound 1658 upper bound 2519 A1

[2 marks]

11i. Given this result, comment on the validity of the linear model used in [2 marks]
part (a).
 Markscheme
Linear model prediction falls outside this range so unlikely to be a good model
R1A1

[2 marks]

The estate manager now believes the population of fish will follow the logistic
L
model N(t)= −kt where L is the carrying capacity and C, k > 0.
1+Ce
The estate manager would like to know if the population of fish in the lake will
eventually reach 5000.

11j. Assuming a carrying capacity of 5000 use the given values of N(0) and [5 marks]
N(1) to calculate the parameters C and k.
 Markscheme
5000
1000 = 1+C
M1

C=4 A1
5000
1200 = 1+4e −k
M1
3800
e−k = 4×1200
(M1)

k = − ln(0. 7916 …)= 0. 2336 … A1

[5 marks]

11k. Use these parameters to calculate the value of N(8) predicted by this [2 marks]
model.

Markscheme
5000
N(8)= 1+4e −0.2336×8
= 3090 M1A1

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 3000.

[2 marks]

5000
11l. Comment on the likelihood of the fish population reaching 5000. [2 marks]

Markscheme
This is much higher than the calculated upper bound for N(8) so the rate of
growth of the fish is unlikely to be sufficient to reach a carrying capacity of
5000. M1R1

[2 marks]

In an effort to study the level of intelligence of students entering college, a

psychologist collected data from 4000 students who were given a standard test.
The predictive norms for this particular test were computed from a very large
population of scores having a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard
deviation of 10. The psychologist wishes to determine whether the 4000 test
scores he obtained also came from a normal distribution with mean 100 and
standard deviation 10. He prepared the following table (expected frequencies are
rounded to the nearest integer):

12a. Copy and complete the table, showing how you arrived at your answers.[5 marks]
Markscheme
To calculate expected frequencies, we multiply 4000 by the probability of each
cell:

p (80.5 ⩽ X ⩽ 90.5) = p ( 80.5−100

10
⩽Z⩽ 90.5−100
10
) (M1)

= p (−19.5 ⩽ Z ⩽ −0.95)
= 0.1711 − 0.0256
= 0.1455
Therefore, the expected frequency = 4000 × 0.1455 (M1)
≈ 582 (A1)
Similarly: p (90.5 ⩽ X ⩽ 100.5) = 0.5199 − 0.1711
= 0.3488
Frequency = 4000 × 0.3488
≈ 1396 (A1)
And p (100.5 ⩽ X ⩽ 110.5) = 0.8531 − 0.5199
= 0.3332
Frequency = 4000 × 0.3332
≈ 1333 (A1)
[5 marks]
12b. Test the hypothesis at the 5% level of significance. [6 marks]
 Markscheme
To test the goodness of fit of the normal distribution, we use the χ 2
distribution. Since the last cell has an expected frequency less than 5, it is
combined with the cell preceding it. There are therefore 7 – 1 = 6 degrees of
freedom. (C1)
(20−6)2 (90−96)2 (575−582)2 (1282−1396)2 (1450−1333)2 (499−507)2 (84−
χ2 = 6
+ 96
+ 582
+ 1396
+ 1333
+ 507
+ 80
(M1)
= 53.03 (A1)
H0: Distribution is Normal with μ = 100 and σ = 10.
H1: Distribution is not Normal with μ = 100 and σ = 10. (M1)
χ2(0.95, 6) = 14.07
Since χ 2 = 53.0 > χ2critical = 14.07, we reject H0 (A1)
Or use of p-value
Therefore, we have enough evidence to suggest that the normal distribution
with mean 100 and standard deviation 10 does not fit the data well.
(R1)
Note: If a candidate has not combined the last 2 cells, award (C0)(M1)(A0)
(M1)(A1)(R1) (or as appropriate).
[6 marks]

13. Six coins are tossed simultaneously 320 times, with the following results. [9 marks]

At the 5% level of significance, test the hypothesis that all the coins are fair.
 Markscheme
Let H0 be the hypothesis that all coins are fair, (C1)
and let H1 be the hypothesis that not all coins are fair. (C1)
Let T be the number of tails obtained, T is binomially distributed.
(M1)

(A3)

Notes: Award (A2) if one entry on the third row is incorrect. Award (A1) if
two entries on the third row are incorrect. Award (A0) if three or more entries
on the third row are incorrect.
(5−5)2 (40−30)2 (86−75)2 (89−100)2 (67−75)2 (29−30)2 (4−5)2
χ2calc = 5
+ 30
+ 75
+ 100
+ 75
+ 30
+ 5
= 7.24 (A1)
Also χ 20.05, 6 = 12.592 (A1)
Since 7.24 < 12.592, H0 cannot be rejected. (R1)
[9 marks]

Eggs at a farm are sold in boxes of six. Each egg is either brown or white. The
owner believes that the number of brown eggs in a box can be modelled by a
binomial distribution. He examines 100 boxes and obtains the following data.

14a. Calculate the mean number of brown eggs in a box. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
Note: Candidates may obtain slightly different numerical answers depending
on the calculator and approach used. Use discretion in marking.
1×29+…+6×1
Mean = 100
= 1.98 (A1)
[1 mark]

14b. Hence estimate p, the probability that a randomly chosen egg is brown. [1 mark]

Markscheme
Note: Candidates may obtain slightly different numerical answers depending
on the calculator and approach used. Use discretion in marking.
1.98
p̂ = 6
= 0.33 (A1)
[1 mark]

2
14c. By calculating an appropriate χ 2 statistic, test, at the 5% significance [8 marks]
level, whether or not the binomial distribution gives a good fit to these data.
Markscheme
Note: Candidates may obtain slightly different numerical answers depending
on the calculator and approach used. Use discretion in marking.
The calculated values are

f0 fe (f0 − fe )2
10 9.046 0.910
29 26.732 5.14 (M1)
31 32.917 3.675 (A1)
18 21.617 13.083 (A1)
12 9.688 5.345 (A1)
Note: Award (M1) for the attempt to calculate expected values, (A1) for
2
correct expected values, (A1) for correct (f0 − fe ) values, (A1) for
combining cells.
0.910 5.345
χ2 = 9.046
+…+ 9.688
= 1.56 (A1)
OR
χ2 = 1.56 (G5)
Degrees of freedom = 3; Critical value = 7.815
(or p-value = 0.668 (or 0.669)) (A1)(A1)
We conclude that the binomial distribution does provide a good fit. (R1)
[8 marks]
 Roy is a member of a motorsport club and regularly drives around the Port
Campbell racetrack.
The times he takes to complete a lap are normally distributed with mean 59
seconds and standard deviation 3 seconds.

15a. Find the probability that Roy completes a lap in less than 55 seconds. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(T < 55) (M1)
0. 0912 (0. 0912112 …) A1

Note: Award M1 for a correct calculator notation such as

normal cdf(0, 55, 59, 3) or normal cdf(−199 , 55, 59, 3).

[2 marks]

20 8. 6
 Roy will complete a 20 lap race. It is expected that 8. 6 of the laps will take more
than t seconds.

15b. Find the value of t. [3 marks]

Markscheme
correct use of expected value
8. 6 = 20 × p OR (p =) 0. 43 seen (M1)

EITHER
correct probability statement
P(T > t)= 0. 43 OR P (T < t)= 0. 57 (M1)

OR
t indicated on sketch to communicate correct area (M1)

THEN
(t =) 59. 5 (seconds) (59. 5291 …) A1

[3 marks]
 Taizo plays a game where he throws one ball at two bottles that are sitting on a
table. The probability of knocking over bottles, in any given game, is shown in the
following table.

16a. Taizo plays two games that are independent of each other. Find the [4 marks]
probability that Taizo knocks over a total of two bottles.

Markscheme
0. 5 × 0. 1 + 0. 4 × 0. 4 + 0. 1 × 0. 5 (M1)(M1)(M1)

Note: Award M1 for 0. 5 × 0. 1 or 0. 1 × 0. 5, M1 for 0. 4 × 0. 4, M1 for

adding three correct products.

0. 26 A1

[4 marks]

4
 In any given game, Taizo will win k points if he knocks over two bottles, win 4
points if he knocks over one bottle and lose 8 points if no bottles are knocked
over.

16b. Find the value of k such that the game is fair. [3 marks]

Markscheme
0 = −8 × 0. 5 + 4 × 0. 4 + 0. 1k (M1)(M1)

Note: Award M1 for correct substitution into the formula for expected value,
award M1 for the expected value formula equated to zero.

(k =) 24 (points) A1

[3 marks]

Elsie, a librarian, wants to investigate the length of time, T minutes, that people
spent in her library on a particular day.

17a. State whether the variable T is discrete or continuous. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
continuous A1

[1 mark]

Elsie’s data for 160 people who visited the library on that particular day is shown
in the following table.

17b. Find the value of k. [2 marks]

Markscheme
160 − 50 − 62 − 14 − 8 (M1)
(k =) 26 A1

[2 marks]

17c. Write down the modal class. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
20 ≤ T < 40 A1

[1 mark]

17d. Write down the mid-interval value for this class. [1 mark]

Markscheme
30 A1

[1 mark]

17e. Use Elsie’s data to calculate an estimate of the mean time that people [2 marks]
spent in the library.
 Markscheme
33. 5 minutes A2

Note: FT from their value of k and their mid-interval value. Follow through
from part (c)(ii) but only if mid-interval value lies in their interval.

[2 marks]

17f. Using the table, write down the maximum possible number of people who [1 mark]
spent 35 minutes or less in the library on that day.

Markscheme
112 A1

[1 mark]

Elsie assumes her data to be representative of future visitors to the library.

17g. Find the probability a visitor spends at least 60 minutes in the library. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
22 11
160
[0. 138, 0. 1375, 13. 75%, 80
] A1A1

Note: Award A1 for correct numerator, A1 for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

The following box and whisker diagram shows the times, in minutes, that the 160
visitors spent in the library.

17h. Write down the median time spent in the library. [1 mark]

Markscheme
26 minutes A1

[1 mark]
17i. Find the interquartile range. [2 marks]

Markscheme
50 − 16 (M1)

Note: Award M1 for both correct quartiles seen.

34 minutes A1

[2 marks]

17j. Hence show that the longest time that a person spent in the library is [3 marks]
not an outlier.
 Markscheme
correct substitution into outlier formula (M1)
50 + 1. 5 × 34
= 101 A1
92 < 101 OR highest value on diagram < 101 R1
not an outlier AG

Note: Award R1 for their correct comparison. Follow through from their part
(h). Award R0 if their conclusion is “it is an outlier”, this contradicts Elsie’s
belief.

[3 marks]

Elsie believes the box and whisker diagram indicates that the times spent in the
library are not normally distributed.

17k. Identify one feature of the box and whisker diagram which might support [1 mark]
Elsie’s belief.

Markscheme
EITHER
the diagram is not symmetric or equivalent
e.g the median is not in the center of the box or
the lengths of the whiskers are (very) different or (positive or right) skew

OR
the mean and median are (very) different; A1

[1 mark]

68%
 At Mirabooka Primary School, a survey found that 68% of students have a dog and
36% of students have a cat. 14% of students have both a dog and a cat.
This information can be represented in the following Venn diagram, where m , n, p
and q represent the percentage of students within each region.

Find the value of

18a. m . [1 mark]

Markscheme
(m =) 54% A1

Note: Based on their n, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does
not contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the
total is 100% .

[1 mark]

18b. n. [1 mark]
 Markscheme
(n =) 14% A1

Note: Based on their n, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does
not contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the
total is 100% .

[1 mark]

18c. p. [1 mark]

Markscheme
(p =) 22% A1

Note: Based on their n, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does
not contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the
total is 100% .

[1 mark]

18d. q. [1 mark]
 Markscheme
(q =) 10% A1

Note: Based on their n, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does
not contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the
total is 100% .

[1 mark]

18e. Find the percentage of students who have a dog or a cat or both. [1 mark]

Markscheme
90 (%) A1

Note: Award A0 for a decimal answer.

[1 mark]

Find the probability that a randomly chosen student

18f. has a dog but does not have a cat. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
54 27
0. 54 ( 100 , 50
, 54%) A1

[1 mark]

18g. has a dog given that they do not have a cat. [2 marks]

Markscheme
54 27
64
(0. 844, 32
, 84. 4%, 0. 84375) A1A1

Note: Award A1 for a correct denominator ( 0. 64 or 64 seen), A1 for the

correct final answer.

[2 marks]
 Each year, one student is chosen randomly to be the school captain of Mirabooka
Primary School.
Tim is using a binomial distribution to make predictions about how many of the
next 10 school captains will own a dog. He assumes that the percentages found in
the survey will remain constant for future years and that the events “being a
school captain” and “having a dog” are independent.

Use Tim’s model to find the probability that in the next 10 years

18h. 5 school captains have a dog. [2 marks]

Markscheme
recognizing Binomial distribution with correct parameters (M1)
X~B(10, 0. 68)
(P(X = 5)=) 0. 123 (0. 122940 … , 12. 3%) A1

[2 marks]

3
18i. more than 3 school captains have a dog. [2 marks]

Markscheme
1 − P(X ≤ 3) OR P(X ≥ 4) OR P(4 ≤ X ≤ 10) (M1)
0. 984 (0. 984497 … , 98. 4%) A1

[2 marks]

18j. exactly 9 school captains in succession have a dog. [3 marks]

 Markscheme
(0. 68)9 × 0. 32 (M1)
recognition of two possible cases (M1)

2 ×((0. 68)9 × 0. 32)

0. 0199 (0. 0198957 … , 1. 99%) A1

[3 marks]

John randomly chooses 10 students from the survey.

18k. State why John should not use the binomial distribution to find the [1 mark]
probability that 5 of these students have a dog.

Markscheme
EITHER
the probability is not constant A1
OR
the events are not independent A1
OR
the events should be modelled by the hypergeometric distribution instead
A1

[1 mark]
 Karl has three brown socks and four black socks in his drawer. He takes two socks
at random from the drawer.

19a. Complete the tree diagram. [1 mark]

Markscheme

A1

Note: Award A1 for both missing probabilities correct.

[1 mark]
19b. Find the probability that Karl takes two socks of the same colour. [2 marks]

Markscheme
multiplying along branches and then adding outcomes (M1)
3 24
7
× 67
× 36
+
18
= 42
(= 37 ≈ 0. 429 (42. 9%)) A1

[2 marks]

19c. Given that Karl has two socks of the same colour find the probability [3 marks]
that he has two brown socks.
 Markscheme
use of conditional probability formula M1
( 37 × 26 )
A1
( 37 )

6
= 18
(= 13 ) ( 252
756
, 0. 333, 33. 3%) A1

[3 marks]

A factory produces bags of sugar with a labelled weight of 500 g. The weights of
the bags are normally distributed with a mean of 500 g and a standard deviation
of 3 g.

20a. Write down the percentage of bags that weigh more than 500 g. [1 mark]

Markscheme
50% A1

Note: Do not accept 0. 5 or 12 .

[1 mark]

495 g
 A bag that weighs less than 495 g is rejected by the factory for being
underweight.

20b. Find the probability that a randomly chosen bag is rejected for being [2 marks]
underweight.

Markscheme
0. 0478 (0. 0477903 … , 4. 78%) A2

[2 marks]
20c. A bag that weighs more than k grams is rejected by the factory for [3 marks]
being overweight. The factory rejects 2% of bags for being overweight.
Find the value of k.

Markscheme
P(X < k)= 0. 98 OR P(X > k)= 0. 02 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a sketch with correct region identified.

506 g (506. 161 …) A2

[3 marks]

163 g
 The masses of Fuji apples are normally distributed with a mean of 163 g and a
standard deviation of 6. 83 g.
When Fuji apples are picked, they are classified as small, medium, large or extra
large depending on their mass. Large apples have a mass of between 172 g and
183 g.

21a. Determine the probability that a Fuji apple selected at random will be a [2 marks]
large apple.
 Markscheme
sketch of normal curve with shaded region to the right of the mean and
correct values (M1)

0. 0921 (0. 0920950 …) A1

[2 marks]

Approximately 68% of Fuji apples have a mass within the medium-sized category,
which is between k and 172 g.

21b. Find the value of k. [3 marks]

Markscheme
EITHER
(P(x < 172))
0. 906200 … (A1)

(0. 906200 … − 0. 68)

0. 226200 … (A1)

OR
(P(163 < x < 172))
0. 406200 … (A1)

0. 5 −(0. 68 − 0. 406200 …) OR 0. 5 +(0. 68 − 0. 406200 …)

0. 226200 … OR 0. 773799 … (A1)

OR

(A1)(A1)

Note: Award A1 for a normal distribution curve with a vertical line on each
side of the mean and a correct probability of either 0. 406 or 0. 274 or 0. 906
shown, A1 for a probability of 0. 226 seen.

THEN
(k =) 158 g (157. 867 … g) A1

[3 marks]

130
 A group of 130 applicants applied for admission into either the Arts programme or
the Sciences programme at a university. The outcomes of their applications are
shown in the following table.

22a. Find the probability that a randomly chosen applicant from this group [1 mark]
was accepted by the university.

Markscheme
( 17+25
130
=) 42
130
( 21
65
, 0. 323076 …) A1

[1 mark]

An applicant is chosen at random from this group. It is found that they were
accepted into the programme of their choice.

22b. Find the probability that the applicant applied for the Arts programme. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
( 17+25
17
=) 17
42
(0. 404761 …) A1A1

Note: Award A1 for correct numerator and A1 for correct denominator.

17/130
Award A1A0 for working of if followed by an incorrect answer.
their answer to (a)

[2 marks]

22c. Two different applicants are chosen at random from the original group. [3 marks]
Find the probability that both applicants applied to the Arts programme.
 Markscheme
41 40
130
× 129
A1M1

Note: Award A1 for two correct fractions seen, M1 for multiplying their
fractions.

1640 164
= 16770
≈ 0. 0978 (0. 0977936 … , 1677
) A1

[3 marks]

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