probability+ [213 marks]

Jae Hee plays a game involving a biased six-sided die.

The faces of the die are labelled −3, −1, 0, 1, 2 and 5.
The score for the game, X, is the number which lands face up after the die is
rolled.
The following table shows the probability distribution for X.

1a. Find the exact value of p. [1 mark]

Jae Hee plays the game once.

1b. Calculate the expected score. [2 marks]

1c. Jae Hee plays the game twice and adds the two scores together. [3 marks]
Find the probability Jae Hee has a total score of −3.

Mr Burke teaches a mathematics class with 15 students. In this class there are 6
female students and 9 male students.
Each day Mr Burke randomly chooses one student to answer a homework
question.

2a. Find the probability that on any given day Mr Burke chooses a female [1 mark]
student to answer a question.
 In the first month, Mr Burke will teach his class 20 times.

2b. Find the probability he will choose a female student 8 times. [2 marks]

2c. Find the probability he will choose a male student at most 9 times. [3 marks]
 Mr Burke teaches a mathematics class with 15 students. In this class there are 6
female students and 9 male students.
Each day Mr Burke randomly chooses one student to answer a homework
question.
In the first month, Mr Burke will teach his class 20 times.

3a. Find the probability he will choose a female student 8 times. [2 marks]
3b. The Head of Year, Mrs Smith, decides to select a student at random from [4 marks]
the year group to read the notices in assembly. There are 80 students in
total in the year group. Mrs Smith calculates the probability of picking a male
student 8 times in the first 20 assemblies is 0.153357 correct to 6 decimal places.
Find the number of male students in the year group.
 The diagram below shows part of the screen from a weather forecasting website
showing the data for town A. The percentages on the bottom row represent the
likelihood of some rain during the hour leading up to the time given. For example
there is a 69% chance (a probability of 0. 69) of rain falling on any point in town A
between 0900 and 1000.

Paula works at a building site in the area covered by this page of the website from
0900 to 1700. She has lunch from 1300 to 1400.

4a. Write down the probability it rains during Paula’s lunch break. [1 mark]

In the following parts you may assume all probabilities are independent.
Paula needs to work outside between 1000 and 1300.

4b. Find the probability it will rain in each of the three hours Paula is working [2 marks]
outside.
 Paula will also spend her lunchtime outside.

4c. Find the probability it will not rain while Paula is outside. [2 marks]

4d. Find the probability it will rain at least once while Paula is outside. [2 marks]

9 1 9
 A disc is divided into 9 sectors, number 1 to 9. The angles at the centre of each of
the sectors un form an arithmetic sequence, with u1 being the largest angle.

5a. 9 [1 mark]
Σ
Write down the value of i=1ui .

It is given that u9 = 13 u1 .

5b. Find the value of u1 . [4 marks]

5c. A game is played in which the arrow attached to the centre of the disc is [2 marks]
spun and the sector in which the arrow stops is noted. If the arrow stops
in sector 1 the player wins 10 points, otherwise they lose 2 points.
Let X be the number of points won
Find E(X).

The weights of apples on a tree can be modelled by a normal distribution with a

mean of 85 grams and a standard deviation of 7. 5 grams.

6a. Find the probability that an apple from the tree has a weight greater [2 marks]
than 90 grams.

2 A B
 A sample of apples are taken from 2 trees, A and B, in different parts of the
orchard.
The data is shown in the table below.

The owner of the orchard wants to know whether the mean weight of the apples
from tree A(μA ) is greater than the mean weight of the apples from tree B(μB )
so sets up the following test:
H0 : μA = μB and H1 : μA > μB

6b. Find the p-value for the owner’s test. [2 marks]

6c. The test is performed at the 5% significance level. [2 marks]

State the conclusion of the test, giving a reason for your answer.
 The diagram below shows part of the screen from a weather forecasting website
showing the data for town A. The percentages on the bottom row represent the
likelihood of some rain during the hour leading up to the time given. For example
there is a 69% chance (a probability of 0. 69) of rain falling on any point in town A
between 0900 and 1000.

Paula works at a building site in the area covered by this page of the website from
0900 to 1700. She has lunch from 1300 to 1400.

7a. Write down the probability it rains during Paula’s lunch break. [1 mark]

In the following parts you may assume all probabilities are independent.
Paula needs to work outside between 1000 and 1300 and will also spend her
lunchtime outside.

7b. Find the probability it will not rain while Paula is outside. [2 marks]
7c. Find the probability it will rain at least once while Paula is outside. [2 marks]

7d. Given it rains at least once while Paula is outside find the probability that[3 marks]
it rains during her lunch hour.
 A dice manufacturer claims that for a novelty die he produces the probability of
scoring the numbers 1 to 5 are all equal, and the probability of a 6 is two times
the probability of scoring any of the other numbers.

8a. Find the probability of scoring a six when rolling the novelty die. [3 marks]

8b. Find the probability of scoring more than 2 sixes when this die is rolled 5 [4 marks]
times.

350
 To test the manufacture’s claim one of the novelty dice is rolled 350 times and the
numbers scored on the die are shown in the table below.

8c. Find the expected frequency for each of the numbers if the [2 marks]
manufacturer’s claim is true.

A χ2 goodness of fit test is to be used with a 5% significance level.

8d. Write down the null and alternative hypotheses. [2 marks]

8e. State the degrees of freedom for the test. [1 mark]

8f. Determine the conclusion of the test, clearly justifying your answer. [4 marks]
 Dana has collected some data regarding the heights h (metres) of waves against
a pier at 50 randomly chosen times in a single day. This data is shown in the table
below.

She wishes to perform a χ 2 -test at the 5% significance level to see if the height of
waves could be modelled by a normal distribution. Her null hypothesis is
H0 : The data can be modelled by a normal distribution.
From the table she calculates the mean of the heights in her sample to be
0. 828 m and the standard deviation of the heights sn to be 0. 257 m.

9a. Use the given value of sn to find the value of sn−1 . [2 marks]
 She calculates the expected values for each interval under this null hypothesis,
and some of these values are shown in the table below.

9b. Find the value of a and the value of b , giving your answers correct to [3 marks]
one decimal place.

9c. Find the value of the χ 2 test statistic (χ2calc ) for this test. [2 marks]
9d. Determine the degrees of freedom for Dana’s test. [2 marks]

9e. It is given that the critical value for this test is 9. 49. [2 marks]
State the conclusion of the test in context. Use your answer to part (c) to
justify your conclusion.
 The masses in kilograms of melons produced by a farm can be modelled by a
normal distribution with a mean of 2. 6 kg and a standard deviation of 0. 5 kg .

10a. Find the probability that a melon selected at random will have a mass [2 marks]
greater than 3. 0 kg .

Find the probability that two melons picked at random and independently of each
other will

10b. both have a mass greater than 3. 0 kg. [2 marks]

6. 0 kg
10c. have a total mass greater than 6. 0 kg. [2 marks]

One year due to favourable weather conditions it is thought that the mean mass
of the melons has increased.
The owner of the farm decides to take a random sample of 16 melons to test this
hypothesis at the 5% significance level, assuming the standard deviation of the
masses of the melons has not changed.

10d. Write down the null and alternative hypotheses for the test. [1 mark]
10e. Find the critical region for this test. [4 marks]

Unknown to the farmer the favourable weather conditions have led to all the
melons having 10% greater mass than the model described above.

10f. Find the mean and standard deviation of the mass of the melons for this [3 marks]
year.
10g. Find the probability of a Type II error in the owner’s test. [2 marks]

An estate manager is responsible for stocking a small lake with fish. He begins by
introducing 1000 fish into the lake and monitors their population growth to
determine the likely carrying capacity of the lake.
After one year an accurate assessment of the number of fish in the lake is taken
and it is found to be 1200.
Let N be the number of fish t years after the fish have been introduced to the
lake.
Initially it is assumed that the rate of increase of N will be constant.

11a. Use this model to predict the number of fish in the lake when t = 8. [2 marks]

=8
 When t = 8 the estate manager again decides to estimate the number of fish in
the lake. To do this he first catches 300 fish and marks them, so they can be
recognized if caught again. These fish are then released back into the lake. A few
days later he catches another 300 fish, releasing each fish after it has been
checked, and finds 45 of them are marked.

11b. Assuming the proportion of marked fish in the second sample is equal [2 marks]
to the proportion of marked fish in the lake, show that the estate manager will
estimate there are now 2000 fish in the lake.

Let X be the number of marked fish caught in the second sample, where X is
considered to be distributed as B(n, p). Assume the number of fish in the lake is
2000.

11c. Write down the value of n and the value of p. [2 marks]

11d. State an assumption that is being made for X to be considered as [1 mark]
following a binomial distribution.

The estate manager decides that he needs bounds for the total number of fish in
the lake.

11e. Show that an estimate for Var(X) is 38. 25. [2 marks]

11f. Hence show that the variance of the proportion of marked fish in the [2 marks]
X
sample, Var( 300 ), is 0. 000425.
 The estate manager feels confident that the proportion of marked fish in the lake
will be within 1. 5 standard deviations of the proportion of marked fish in the
sample and decides these will form the upper and lower bounds of his estimate.

11g. Taking the value for the variance given in (d) (ii) as a good [2 marks]
approximation for the true variance, find the upper and lower bounds
for the proportion of marked fish in the lake.

11h. Hence find upper and lower bounds for the number of fish in the lake [2 marks]
when t = 8.
11i. Given this result, comment on the validity of the linear model used in [2 marks]
part (a).
 The estate manager now believes the population of fish will follow the logistic
L
model N(t)= −kt where L is the carrying capacity and C, k > 0.
1+Ce
The estate manager would like to know if the population of fish in the lake will
eventually reach 5000.

11j. Assuming a carrying capacity of 5000 use the given values of N(0) and [5 marks]
N(1) to calculate the parameters C and k.

(8)
11k. Use these parameters to calculate the value of N(8) predicted by this [2 marks]
model.

11l. Comment on the likelihood of the fish population reaching 5000. [2 marks]

In an effort to study the level of intelligence of students entering college, a

psychologist collected data from 4000 students who were given a standard test.
The predictive norms for this particular test were computed from a very large
population of scores having a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard
deviation of 10. The psychologist wishes to determine whether the 4000 test
scores he obtained also came from a normal distribution with mean 100 and
standard deviation 10. He prepared the following table (expected frequencies are
rounded to the nearest integer):

12a. Copy and complete the table, showing how you arrived at your answers.[5 marks]
12b. Test the hypothesis at the 5% level of significance. [6 marks]

13. Six coins are tossed simultaneously 320 times, with the following results. [9 marks]
At the 5% level of significance, test the hypothesis that all the coins are fair.
 Eggs at a farm are sold in boxes of six. Each egg is either brown or white. The
owner believes that the number of brown eggs in a box can be modelled by a
binomial distribution. He examines 100 boxes and obtains the following data.

14a. Calculate the mean number of brown eggs in a box. [1 mark]

14b. Hence estimate p, the probability that a randomly chosen egg is brown. [1 mark]

2
14c. By calculating an appropriate χ 2 statistic, test, at the 5% significance [8 marks]
level, whether or not the binomial distribution gives a good fit to these data.
 Roy is a member of a motorsport club and regularly drives around the Port
Campbell racetrack.
The times he takes to complete a lap are normally distributed with mean 59
seconds and standard deviation 3 seconds.

15a. Find the probability that Roy completes a lap in less than 55 seconds. [2 marks]

20 8. 6
 Roy will complete a 20 lap race. It is expected that 8. 6 of the laps will take more
than t seconds.

15b. Find the value of t. [3 marks]

 Taizo plays a game where he throws one ball at two bottles that are sitting on a
table. The probability of knocking over bottles, in any given game, is shown in the
following table.

16a. Taizo plays two games that are independent of each other. Find the [4 marks]
probability that Taizo knocks over a total of two bottles.

4
 In any given game, Taizo will win k points if he knocks over two bottles, win 4
points if he knocks over one bottle and lose 8 points if no bottles are knocked
over.

16b. Find the value of k such that the game is fair. [3 marks]

Elsie, a librarian, wants to investigate the length of time, T minutes, that people
spent in her library on a particular day.

17a. State whether the variable T is discrete or continuous. [1 mark]

160
 Elsie’s data for 160 people who visited the library on that particular day is shown
in the following table.

17b. Find the value of k. [2 marks]

17c. Write down the modal class. [1 mark]

17d. Write down the mid-interval value for this class. [1 mark]
17e. Use Elsie’s data to calculate an estimate of the mean time that people [2 marks]
spent in the library.

17f. Using the table, write down the maximum possible number of people who [1 mark]
spent 35 minutes or less in the library on that day.

Elsie assumes her data to be representative of future visitors to the library.

17g. Find the probability a visitor spends at least 60 minutes in the library. [2 marks]

160
 The following box and whisker diagram shows the times, in minutes, that the 160
visitors spent in the library.

17h. Write down the median time spent in the library. [1 mark]

17i. Find the interquartile range. [2 marks]

17j. Hence show that the longest time that a person spent in the library is [3 marks]
not an outlier.

Elsie believes the box and whisker diagram indicates that the times spent in the
library are not normally distributed.

17k. Identify one feature of the box and whisker diagram which might support [1 mark]
Elsie’s belief.

68%
 At Mirabooka Primary School, a survey found that 68% of students have a dog and
36% of students have a cat. 14% of students have both a dog and a cat.
This information can be represented in the following Venn diagram, where m , n, p
and q represent the percentage of students within each region.

Find the value of

18a. m . [1 mark]

18b. n. [1 mark]

18c. p. [1 mark]
18d. q. [1 mark]

18e. Find the percentage of students who have a dog or a cat or both. [1 mark]

Find the probability that a randomly chosen student

18f. has a dog but does not have a cat. [1 mark]

18g. has a dog given that they do not have a cat. [2 marks]
 Each year, one student is chosen randomly to be the school captain of Mirabooka
Primary School.
Tim is using a binomial distribution to make predictions about how many of the
next 10 school captains will own a dog. He assumes that the percentages found in
the survey will remain constant for future years and that the events “being a
school captain” and “having a dog” are independent.

Use Tim’s model to find the probability that in the next 10 years

18h. 5 school captains have a dog. [2 marks]

18i. more than 3 school captains have a dog. [2 marks]

9
18j. exactly 9 school captains in succession have a dog. [3 marks]

John randomly chooses 10 students from the survey.

18k. State why John should not use the binomial distribution to find the [1 mark]
probability that 5 of these students have a dog.

Karl has three brown socks and four black socks in his drawer. He takes two socks
at random from the drawer.

19a. Complete the tree diagram. [1 mark]

19b. Find the probability that Karl takes two socks of the same colour. [2 marks]

19c. Given that Karl has two socks of the same colour find the probability [3 marks]
that he has two brown socks.

500 g
 A factory produces bags of sugar with a labelled weight of 500 g. The weights of
the bags are normally distributed with a mean of 500 g and a standard deviation
of 3 g.

20a. Write down the percentage of bags that weigh more than 500 g. [1 mark]

A bag that weighs less than 495 g is rejected by the factory for being
underweight.

20b. Find the probability that a randomly chosen bag is rejected for being [2 marks]
underweight.
20c. A bag that weighs more than k grams is rejected by the factory for [3 marks]
being overweight. The factory rejects 2% of bags for being overweight.
Find the value of k.

163 g
 The masses of Fuji apples are normally distributed with a mean of 163 g and a
standard deviation of 6. 83 g.
When Fuji apples are picked, they are classified as small, medium, large or extra
large depending on their mass. Large apples have a mass of between 172 g and
183 g.

21a. Determine the probability that a Fuji apple selected at random will be a [2 marks]
large apple.

68%
 Approximately 68% of Fuji apples have a mass within the medium-sized category,
which is between k and 172 g.

21b. Find the value of k. [3 marks]

A group of 130 applicants applied for admission into either the Arts programme or
the Sciences programme at a university. The outcomes of their applications are
shown in the following table.

22a. Find the probability that a randomly chosen applicant from this group [1 mark]
was accepted by the university.
 An applicant is chosen at random from this group. It is found that they were
accepted into the programme of their choice.

22b. Find the probability that the applicant applied for the Arts programme. [2 marks]

22c. Two different applicants are chosen at random from the original group. [3 marks]
Find the probability that both applicants applied to the Arts programme.

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