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11 views8 pages

Stats Presentation

Uploaded by

suleymanovanrgiz4
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and

Statistics

Basics of
Probability
Presented by:
Baylarzada Matanat
Business Informatics 732.23E
What is Probability?

Probability can be defined as the ratio of


the number of favorable outcomes to the
total number of outcomes of an event.
For an experiment having 'n' number of
outcomes, the number of favorable
outcomes can be denoted by x. The
probability is classified into two types:
Theoretical probability
Experimental probability

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Theorical Probability
Theoretical probability predicts the probability of occurrence of
an event by assuming that all events are equally likely to occur.

Normal Distribution Formula


In order to be considered a normal distribution, a data set (when
graphed) must follow a bell-shaped symmetrical curve centered around
the mean.

x is the variable 𝜇 is the mean 𝜎 is the standard deviation

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Examples
What will be the probability density The letters of the word "MATHEMATICS"
function of normal distribution for the are placed in a bag. What is the probability
data; x=3, μ=4 and σ=2? of drawing the letter "T" from the bag?
Experimental Probability
Each possible outcome is uncertain and the set of all the possible
outcomes is called the sample space.
P(E) = Number of times an event occurs/Total
number of times the experiment is conducted
Example
The following table shows the recording of the outcomes on throwing a
6-sided die 100 times.Find the experimental probability of: a) Rolling a
four; b) Rolling a number less than four; c) Rolling a 2 or 5

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Conditional Probability
and Bayes' Theorem
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring
given that another event has already occurred.
∣
𝑃(𝐴 𝐵) represents the probability of event 𝐴 occurring given
that event 𝐵 has occurred

Bayes’ Theorem

∣
P(A B) is the posterior probability: the probability of event 𝐴
occurring given that 𝐵 is true.
∣
𝑃(𝐵 𝐴) is the likelihood: the probability of event 𝐵 occurring given
that 𝐴 is true.
𝑃(𝐴) is the prior probability: the initial probability of event 𝐴.
𝑃(𝐵) is the marginal likelihood: the total probability of event 𝐵
occurring.
Examples
A medical test for a disease with
99% sensitivity and 95% specificity, P(D ∣A)=0.01
and 1% disease prevalence

P(A)=0.60 P(D’ ∣A)=0.99


Machine

∣
P(D B)=0.02

P(B)=0.40

∣
P(D’ B)=0.98

Decision Tree Example Using Excel


A student is deciding whether to prepare for an exam or not. If the student prepares,
there's a higher chance of passing. The decision tree will help determine the expected
outcomes based on different scenarios.
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Examples
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