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Simple Simulation Example

This document provides examples of simulations of inventory systems, newspaper sales, project activity networks, and queueing systems using spreadsheet models. It includes: 1) A periodic review inventory system with probabilistic demand and lead times simulated to estimate ending inventory levels and shortage days. 2) A newspaper seller simulation that evaluates policies of papers to purchase based on probabilistic demand distributions for different day types. 3) A project activity network simulation using probabilistic activity durations to estimate project completion time statistics over 100 trials. 4) An extension of the previous project simulation to include a probabilistic activity that may or may not be required after one node. 5) A request to simulate examples of single-channel and

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Hendry Toga
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267 views

Simple Simulation Example

This document provides examples of simulations of inventory systems, newspaper sales, project activity networks, and queueing systems using spreadsheet models. It includes: 1) A periodic review inventory system with probabilistic demand and lead times simulated to estimate ending inventory levels and shortage days. 2) A newspaper seller simulation that evaluates policies of papers to purchase based on probabilistic demand distributions for different day types. 3) A project activity network simulation using probabilistic activity durations to estimate project completion time statistics over 100 trials. 4) An extension of the previous project simulation to include a probabilistic activity that may or may not be required after one node. 5) A request to simulate examples of single-channel and

Uploaded by

Hendry Toga
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simple Simulation Example

Industrial Engineering ITENAS 2008

1. Simple (S, p) Inventory System


Single-item periodic review inventory system. Maximum inventory level S = 11 units. Review period p = 5 days, inventory is evaluated every at the end of the review day. Shortage is permitted, backorder condition applies. (Order quantity) = (Maximum inventory level) (Ending inventory) + (Shortage quantity) Daily-demand probabilistic. Lead-time probabilistic, lead time of 1 day means that the order from the supplier arrives at the second morning after.

Simple (S, p) Inventory System

Probabilistic lead time and daily demand data:


Daily Demand Lead Time (days) 1 2 3 0 Probability 0.6 0.3 0.1 1 2 3 4 Probability 0.1 0.25 0.35 0.21 0.09

Simple (S, p) Inventory System


Simulate the system to estimate average ending units in inventory and percentage of number of days when a shortage condition occurs!!! Assume at the beginning of the simulation, inventory is 11 units, and no-order outstanding.

MS Excel screenshot for (S,p) Inventory Simulation

2. Newspaper seller problem


The paper seller buys the papers for 33 cents each and sells them for 50 cents each. Papers not sold at the end of the day are sold as scrap for 5 cents each. Papers can be purchased in bundles of 10. There are three types of newsdays: good, fair, and poor, with probabilities of 0.35, 0.45, and 0.20, respectively

Newspaper seller problem


The distribution of papers demanded on each of these type of newsday is:
Demand Probability Distribution

Demand 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Good 0.03 0.05 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.07

Fair 0.10 0.18 0.40 0.20 0.08 0.04 0.00

Poor 0.44 0.22 0.16 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.00

Newspaper seller problem


Profit for the newspaper seller is: Profit = [(revenue from sales) (cost of newspapers) (lost profit from excess demand) + (salvage from sale of scrap papers)] Evaluate some policies of the number of papers the seller should purchase everyday, by using spreadsheet simulation! (Test the purchase of 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 units of papers!)

MS Excel screenshot for Newspaper Seller Simulation

3. Project Activity Network Simulation


A project has an activity network as follow. Time duration to perform each activity is probabilistic, assumed to be in Uniform distribution with parameters as stated by the picture.

1
A: U(2,4)

C: U(2,6)

B: U(3,6)

D: U(2,5)

E: U(1,4)

F: U(5,13)

Project Activity Network Simulation


Use spreadsheet simulation, with 100 trials to estimate the time to finish the project. Present the result statistic: mean (average), minimum, maximum, and sample standard deviation.

MS Excel screenshot for Project Activity Network Simulation

4. Project With Probabilistic Occuring Activity


Suppose the project on Example 3 (Project Activity Network), is extended to include an activity that may or may not be required. After Node 3, there is probabilistic situation, that with probability 0.2 project should perform Activity G before Acitivity E, and with probability 0.8 project can directly perform Acitivity E, as shown in the network as follow:

Project With Probabilistic Occuring Activity


C: U(2,6)

1
A: U(2,4) D: U(2,5)

G: U(2,7) (P=0.2)

B: U(3,6)

E: U(1,4)

3
(P=0.8) Direct F: U(5,13)

3x

Modify the simulation of project activity network to include this probabilistic occuring acitivity!

5. Simple Queueing System Simulation


Please read Section 2.1 from book of Discrete-Event System Simulation (Banks, Carson II, Nelson, & Nicol), 4th ed., about Simulation of Queueing System. Create spreadsheet simulation of Example 2.1 (Single-Channel Queue) and Example 2.2 (AbleBaker Call Center Problem [two-channel queue])

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