Fmars-05-00337 Aula 27 Nov

ORIGINAL RESEARCH
published: 04 October 2018

doi: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00337
Ocean Solutions to Address Climate

Change and Its Effects on Marine
Ecosystems
Jean-Pierre Gattuso 1,2,3* , Alexandre K. Magnan 2,4 , Laurent Bopp 5,6 ,
William W. L. Cheung 7 , Carlos M. Duarte 8,9 , Jochen Hinkel 10,11 , Elizabeth Mcleod 12 ,
Fiorenza Micheli 13 , Andreas Oschlies 14 , Phillip Williamson 15,16 , Raphaël Billé 17 ,
Vasiliki I. Chalastani 1,6 , Ruth D. Gates 18 , Jean-Olivier Irisson 1 , Jack J. Middelburg 19 ,
Hans-Otto Pörtner 20 and Greg H. Rau 21
1
Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France, 2 Institute
for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, Paris, France, 3 Monegasque Association on Ocean
Acidification, Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, Monaco, Monaco, 4 UMR LIENSs 7266, Université de La Rochelle –
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, La Rochelle, France, 5 CNRS/ENS/UPMC/École Polytechnique, Laboratoire
de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France, 6 Département de Géosciences, École Normale
Supérieure, Paris, France, 7 Nippon Foundation – UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute
Edited by: for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 8 King Abdullah University
Peng Xiu, of Science and Technology, Red Sea Research Center, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, 9 Arctic Research Centre, Department
South China Sea Institute of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark, 10 Adaptation and Social Learning, Global Climate Forum e.V., Berlin,
of Oceanology (CAS), China Germany, 11 Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis
of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, 12 The Nature Conservancy, Austin, TX,
Reviewed by:
United States, 13 Center for Ocean Solutions, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States,
Anthony J. Richardson, 14
GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, 15 Natural Environment Research Council, Swindon,
The University of Queensland,
United Kingdom, 16 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, 17 The Pacific
Australia
Community (SPC), Noumea, New Caledonia, 18 Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii at Mânoa, Honolulu,
Roger Cropp,
HI, United States, 19 Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands, 20 Alfred Wegener Institute
Griffith University, Australia
for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany, 21 Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz,
*Correspondence: Santa Cruz, CA, United States
Jean-Pierre Gattuso
[email protected]
The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5–2◦ C compared
Specialty section: to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious
This article was submitted to
Global Change and the Future Ocean,
mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities
a section of the journal for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and
Frontiers in Marine Science ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and
Received: 27 June 2018 local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development
Accepted: 03 September 2018
Published: 04 October 2018 and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We
Citation: show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for
Gattuso J-P, Magnan AK, Bopp L, a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by
Cheung WWL, Duarte CM, Hinkel J,
Mcleod E, Micheli F, Oschlies A,
combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up
Williamson P, Billé R, Chalastani VI, immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political
Gates RD, Irisson J-O, Middelburg JJ, consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms,
Pörtner H-O and Rau GH (2018)
Ocean Solutions to Address Climate (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of
Change and Its Effects on Marine poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.
Ecosystems. Front. Mar. Sci. 5:337.
doi: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00337 Keywords: climate change, ocean acidification, ocean solutions, global, local, governance
Frontiers in Marine Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 October 2018 | Volume 5 | Article 337

Gattuso et al. Ocean Solutions
INTRODUCTION reduce the magnitude and rate of ocean warming, ocean

acidification, and sea-level rise, as well as their impacts
The ocean provides most of the life-supporting environment on marine ecosystems and ecosystem services. They could
on the planet. It hosts a large portion of biodiversity, also play a significant role in helping to reduce global
plays a major role in climate regulation, sustains a vibrant warming and its impacts on the non-ocean surface of the
economy and contributes to food security worldwide. Severe planet – and on human society. However, there may be
impacts on key marine ecosystems and ecosystem services are associated risks to ocean life and people, and there is a
projected in response to the future increase in global mean lack of guidance for prioritizing ocean-based interventions
temperature and concurrent ocean acidification, deoxygenation, since there has been relatively little research, development and
and sea-level rise (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Pörtner deployment in this field. Important issues include determining
et al., 2014; Gattuso et al., 2015). These impacts scale to the effectiveness of a given approach in countering changes in
CO2 emissions: they will be considerably worse with a high climate drivers and/or impacts, possible spatial and temporal
emissions scenario than with a scenario that limits the scales of deployment, associated positive and negative climate,
temperature increase to 2◦ C relative to pre-industrial levels environmental, economic, and societal impacts (Russell et al.,
(Bopp et al., 2013). Current emission reduction pledges under 2012), and hence the implications for ethics, equity, and
the 2015 Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) are, however, governance (Preston, 2013; Burns et al., 2016; Williamson and
insufficient to keep global temperature below +2◦ C in 2100 Bodle, 2016).
relative to pre-industrial level (Rogelj et al., 2016) and to To fill this gap, we assess the potential of 13 categories
reach targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development of ocean-based measures or schemes to reduce climate-related
Goals. Increased ambition, with additional actions, is therefore drivers globally and/or locally (<∼100 km2 ), as well as to
required. reduce adverse impacts on selected, important and sensitive
Further reductions in atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions marine ecosystems and ecosystem services. The three drivers
are achievable through: (1) a shift from fossil fuels to renewable considered are ocean warming, ocean acidification and sea-
energy; (2) improved energy efficiency; (3) carbon capture and level rise, although others such as hypoxia, extreme events,
storage (CCS) at the point of CO2 generation; and (4) the and changes in storminess and precipitation can also be
protection and enhancement of natural carbon sinks (Griscom important. We focus on four ecosystems and habitats (warm-
et al., 2017; Rockström et al., 2017). The risk of failing to meet water coral reefs, mangroves and salt-marshes, seagrass beds,
climate targets via emissions reduction has increased interest and Arctic biota) and four ecosystem services (finfish fisheries,
in solar radiation management (National Research Council, fish aquaculture, coastal protection, and bivalve fisheries and
2015b) and carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere aquaculture), which are particularly vulnerable to climate
(National Research Council, 2015a; Williamson, 2016; Hansen impacts and are critical for livelihoods and food security. The
et al., 2017). For example, the implementation of bioenergy potential of each ocean-based measure is assessed in terms of
with carbon capture and storage is a major component of a the following eight environmental, technological, social, and
roadmap to reduce global emissions from ∼40 Gt CO2 year−1 economic criteria: (1) potential effectiveness to increase net
in 2020 to ∼5 Gt CO2 year−1 by 2050 (Rockström et al., carbon uptake and moderate ocean warming, ocean acidification,
2017). Such an ambitious roadmap, however, poses significant and sea level rise; (2) technological readiness; (3) lead time
political, economic, and environmental challenges because of the until full potential effectiveness; (4) duration of benefits; (5)
land, water, and nutrient requirements to produce the biomass co-benefits; (6) disbenefits; (7) cost effectiveness; and (8)
(potentially in competition with existing ecosystems, land use, governability from an international perspective. This expert
and food production), the cost and feasibility of carbon capture assessment is based on an extensive literature review and is
and storage, and the fact that such systems have yet to be supported by Supplementary Materials (SM) that provide details
proven effective at the required scales (Anderson and Peters, on the terminology, assessment methods, results, and supporting
2016; Smith et al., 2016; Boysen et al., 2017). Additionally, and literature.
even under a successful mitigation scenario, impacts are expected
at the local scale, hence the need for enhanced adaptation
measures.
CLIMATE-RELATED SENSITIVITY OF
To date, policy responses to climate change and its impacts
have largely focussed on land-based actions (Field and Mach, OCEAN ECOSYSTEM AND ECOSYSTEM
2017) while relatively little attention has been paid to ocean- SERVICES
based potential (Rau et al., 2012; Billé et al., 2013), despite
the recent launch of the Ocean Pathway initiative by the Key Ecosystems Investigated
Presidency of the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) Ecosystems have different sensitivities to ocean warming, ocean
of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate acidification and sea-level rise (Figure 1A and section “SM3.3”
Change (UNFCCC). The ocean already removes about 25% of the Supplementary Materials). Interactions between drivers
of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Le Quéré et al., 2018) can be complex: additive, synergistic, or antagonistic (Crain
and has the potential to remove and store much more et al., 2008). There are big gaps in multiple-drivers research
(Rau, 2014). Thus, ocean-based actions could significantly (Crain et al., 2008; Riebesell and Gattuso, 2015) but experimental

sensitive to ocean acidification include calcifiers such as

bivalves and planktonic pteropods that are key links in
ocean food webs (Comeau et al., 2010; Duarte et al.,
2012).
Mangroves and saltmarshes are highly sensitive to sea-level
rise (Kirwan and Megonigal, 2013; Lovelock et al., 2015),
particularly where coastal development and steep topography
block landward migration and insufficient sediment is delivered
to support accretion. A preliminary global modeling effort
suggests that a 50 cm sea-level rise by 2100 would result
in a loss of 46 to 59% of global coastal wetlands (up to
78% loss under 110 cm rise), but losses are sensitive to
FIGURE 1 | Sensitivity of key ecosystems (A) and ecosystem services (B) to
assumptions about human coastal development and may be
key climate-related drivers. The scores of this expert assessment and their
justification are provided in section “SM3.3” of the Supplementary reduced if additional tidal hydrodynamic feedbacks are included
Materials. (Spencer et al., 2016). Warming and acidification are not
projected to have significant direct effects on mangroves and
saltmarshes, but may have positive or negative effects at local
scales due to changes in species composition, phenology,
strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers productivity, and latitudinal range of distribution (Ward et al.,
of global ocean change have become available (Boyd et al., 2016).
2018). Temperate seagrass ecosystems are sensitive to ocean
Of the four ecosystems or habitats considered here, coral warming. For example, the thermal regime of the Mediterranean
reefs and Arctic biota are the most imminently threatened and Sea already exceeds the upper thermal limit of the endemic
will be affected to a greater degree sooner than others, with Posidonia oceanica in some areas (Marbà and Duarte,
high risk that key functions will be lost globally, as identified 2010; Jordà et al., 2012). Seagrass and fleshy algae may
in the 5th assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental expand in Arctic regions with warming and loss of ice
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., cover (Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2014). Some may
2014; Pörtner et al., 2014). Coral reefs are very sensitive to benefit from carbonate chemistry changes associated with
ocean warming and acidification (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; ocean acidification as their photosynthesis is CO2 -limited
Gattuso et al., 2014; Hughes et al., 2017a). They have suffered (Raven and Beardall, 2014) but sensitive calcifiers growing
extensive losses in the past three decades due to high sea surface in the meadows are negatively impacted (Martin et al.,
temperature combined with local stressors such as overfishing, 2008).
destructive fishing, coastal development, and pollution. All
projections indicate that the thermal conditions driving major
losses will increase in frequency and exceed thresholds for Key Ecosystem Services Investigated
the majority of reefs by 2050 (Gattuso et al., 2014; Pörtner The ecosystem services considered in this study are all highly
et al., 2014). Over the 21st century under the high emissions sensitive to ocean warming (Weatherdon et al., 2016; Figure 1B
Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario (van and section “SM3.3” of the Supplementary Materials). Global
Vuuren et al., 2011), 99% of the world’s coral reefs are expected potential fisheries catches and species turnover, for instance,
to experience annual severe bleaching due to thermal stress are projected to decrease by about 3 Mt and increase by 10%,
(van Hooidonk et al., 2016). The thermal sensitivity of coral respectively, for every 1◦ C of global surface warming (Cheung
reefs is compounded by ocean acidification (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2016). These patterns are similar for finfish and shellfish
et al., 2014), which diminishes coral growth and calcification aquaculture, as ∼90% of current finfish and shellfish mariculture
(Albright et al., 2018) and can lead to increased bioerosion production is from open-water farming where environmental
and vulnerability to storm damage (Andersson and Gledhill, conditions closely match those in the nearby ocean (Callaway
2013). et al., 2012). Shellfish fisheries and mariculture, in particular,
Arctic biota are also highly sensitive to climate change, are threatened by the combined effects of warming (Mackenzie
particularly ice-associated biota that are rapidly declining et al., 2014), ocean acidification (Barton et al., 2012; Gazeau
in Arctic summers (Wassmann et al., 2010; Pörtner et al., et al., 2013) and deoxygenation (Gobler et al., 2014). Despite
2014; Kohlbach et al., 2017). Within the Arctic, ecosystem possible genetic adaptation over generations (Thomsen et al.,
responses vary greatly depending on ambient variability, 2017), impacts on shellfish are expected to be high to very high
degree of warming, and nutrient advection (Hunt et al., when CO2 concentrations exceed those projected for 2100 in
2016). Warming and freshening may also impact ecosystem the low to moderate RCP2.6 and 4.5 CO2 emissions scenarios
production by differentially increasing respiration rates and (Gattuso et al., 2015; Cooley et al., 2016). In addition, finfish
reducing nutrient supply (Duarte et al., 2012) as well as mariculture often focuses on high trophic level species that are
enhancing the degree of ocean acidification due to freshening dependent on wild capture fisheries for feed (Troell et al., 2014)
(Pörtner et al., 2014). Arctic organisms that seem particularly and some operations still largely rely on wild captured fish fry and

juveniles (Diana, 2009). Thus, mariculture is likely to be subject proposed or demonstrated in the laboratory (Eisaman et al., 2012;
to similar climatic stresses as fish stocks in the wild. Willauer et al., 2014; Koweek et al., 2016), as well as marine-
The sensitivity of coastal protection, notably wave attenuation based interventions that increase uptake and reduce emissions of
and shoreline stabilization, to climate-related drivers differs other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and N2 O (e.g., Poffenbarger
for each ecosystem considered (Spalding et al., 2014). The et al., 2011; Stolaroff et al., 2012). Research and testing of new,
cumulative impacts of increasing sea-surface temperature, ocean unconventional methods of ocean and climate management are
acidification, and non-climatic stressors such as land-based in their infancy, and additional methods are likely to emerge.
pollution reduce reefs’ ability to keep pace with sea-level rise Whereas some of the solutions assessed here are still at a
(Yates et al., 2017). The consequences of sea-level rise on very-early or experimental stage, others have been implemented
biologically structured coastal ecosystems raise concerns as these and refined over many decades, though not always specifically
habitats are estimated to currently reduce wave height by 30 to designed to address climate change impacts. The global
90% (in order of highest to lowest wave reduction: coral reefs, implementation of renewable energy, vegetation, eliminating
saltmarshes, mangroves, and seagrasses) (Fonseca and Cahalan, overexploitation, and protection exhibit a sharp acceleration in
1992; Duarte et al., 2013; Ferrario et al., 2014; Narayan et al., the past two decades (Figure 3). For example, global cumulative
2016). Historical global losses in coastal ecosystems [30 to 50% for offshore wind potential has grown 3-fold in less than 5 years to
mangroves since the 1940s, 29% for seagrass since 1879, 25% for reach 15,000 MW in 2016 (Global Wind Energy Council, 2016).
saltmarshes since the 1800s (Waycott et al., 2009; Mcleod et al., MPAs now cover more than 3% of the global ocean (Boonzaier
2011)] and degradation of coral reefs [30–75% since prehuman and Pauly, 2016), 7% of the overexploited fish stocks have been
times (Pandolfi et al., 2003)] have already reduced their potential rebuilt (Kleisner et al., 2013) and the global area of avoided loss
to provide ecosystem services. Projections suggest that 90% of of mangroves has been estimated at 40,000 km2 (Hamilton and
coral reefs worldwide could be lost if warming exceeds 1.5◦ C Casey, 2016).
(Frieler et al., 2013).
POTENTIAL TO REDUCE KEY OCEAN

OCEAN-BASED SOLUTIONS DRIVERS
Four types of actions to reduce the scale and impacts of climate
change are considered (Figure 2): (1) reduction of atmospheric Effectiveness of the Measures and
greenhouse gas concentrations, (2) solar radiation management, Duration of Their Effects
(3) protection of biota and ecosystems, and (4) manipulation To estimate effectiveness, we first assess the potential of each
of biological and ecological adaptation. The actions in the first measure –assumed here to be implemented at its maximum
two categories (referred to as global actions hereafter, although physical capacity– to bridge the gap between the high-emissions
some forms of solar radiation management could be local) trajectory (RCP8.5, our baseline scenario) and a stringent
aim to either reduce the main cause of climate change at emission-reduction scenario (RCP2.6) expected to keep mean
the global scale (primarily the increase in atmospheric CO2 global temperature increase below 2◦ C by 2100 (van Vuuren
concentration) or to counteract warming through increasing et al., 2011) (see section “SM2” of the Supplementary Materials).
albedo in the atmosphere or at the Earth’s surface, thereby The differences between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 in the year 2100
increasing the proportion of solar radiation that is reflected back are estimated to be ∼1,400 Pg C for avoided emissions; ∼2◦ C
to space. The actions in the other two categories (referred to for reduced sea surface warming; ∼0.25 pH units for avoided sea
as local actions hereafter) aim to reduce the risk of climate surface acidification; and a reduction in sea-level rise of between
change impacts locally, either by reducing the locally experienced 0.26 and 1.1 m (Jones et al., 2013; DeConto and Pollard, 2016).
drivers (site-specific acidification and warming, and relative sea- The effectiveness of the global measures is assessed in terms of
level rise) and/or reducing the sensitivity of organisms and maximum possible effectiveness to reduce ocean warming, ocean
ecosystems to these drivers (Bates et al., 2017; Cheung et al., acidification, and sea-level rise (Figure 4A), and duration of the
2017). Vegetation and alkalinization (see Box 1 and section “SM1” effect (Figure 4B). This maximum effectiveness is theoretical and
of the Supplementary Materials for descriptions) are evaluated almost certainly not achievable but provides the full potential
for both global and local aims as they can be deployed globally of each approach. Two of the global solutions, renewable energy
to reduce changes in climate-related drivers and impacts, as well and alkalinization, stand out as having the highest theoretical
as locally to reduce the sensitivity of marine ecosystems and potential for addressing all drivers (Figure 4A). This is obvious
services to specific drivers such as relative sea-level rise and ocean for renewable energy because of the enormous energy potential of
acidification. tides, waves, ocean currents, and thermal stratification, estimated
Other ocean-based measures have been proposed but little at up to 7,400 EJ year−1 (Rogner et al., 2000; Lewis et al., 2011)
research has been conducted on their potential. They include and well exceeding future human energy needs. Any replacement
large-scale seaweed aquaculture for supplementing cattle feed to of fossil fuels by marine renewables results in permanently
reduce methane emissions and counteract acidification locally avoided greenhouse gas emissions.
(Machado et al., 2016; Duarte, 2017). Abiotic methods of A similarly large and permanent intervention could be
removing or stripping CO2 from seawater have also been provided by large-scale alkalinization, by which CO2 is consumed

FIGURE 2 | Potential ocean solutions. Four main groups are considered: addressing the causes of climate change (i.e., reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions or increasing the long-term removal of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2 ), solar radiation management, protection of biota and ecosystems (habitats,
species, resources, etc.), and manipulation of biological and ecological adaptation.
and stored either as dissolved bicarbonate and carbonate ions in the Earth’s radiation balance (Crook et al., 2016; Garciadiego
or as precipitated calcium carbonate, neutralizing ocean acidity. Ortega and Evans, 2018). However, the duration of the effect is
However, the feasibility and benefits of doing this must be only as long as the albedo stays high, likely to be days to months
weighed against the financial costs and environmental impacts for ocean foams (Figure 4B) and, as SRM in general, it does
of mining or producing vast quantities of alkaline material, not limit ocean acidification as atmospheric CO2 concentration
distributed at global scales, and the potential biotic impacts of remains elevated (Tjiputra et al., 2016). Similar considerations
the trace elements or contaminants that alkalinity might contain apply to marine cloud brightening, although modeling studies
(Renforth and Henderson, 2017). indicate more limited effectiveness (Kravitz et al., 2013; Stjern
Land-ocean hybrid methods greatly expand the mitigation et al., 2017).
potential offered by either land-based or ocean-based approaches Other potential solutions face physical and/or biogeochemical
individually. For example, the use of marine biomass for limitations (Figure 4A). A global deployment of iron fertilization
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) fuel for 100 years could sequester a maximum of ∼70 Pg C (ref.
eliminates limitations on terrestrial fuel capacity posed by Aumont and Bopp, 2006) because other nutrient or light
competition for land, water, and nutrients. In turn, conversion limitations occur when marine algae are iron-replete (Oschlies
of CO2 from land-based biomass energy to ocean alkalinity and et al., 2010). Some measures demonstrate limited potential for
subsequent storage in the ocean greatly expands CO2 storage reducing warming, acidification and sea-level rise at global scales,
capacity and beneficial use (via countering ocean acidification) such as vegetation for instance. Even with very high carbon
relative to more conventional CCS approaches. However, a storage and avoided net emissions, the vegetation measure is
comprehensive understanding of the full range of options, and constrained by the limited global area of potentially vegetated
their costs, benefits and tradeoffs requires further research (Rau, habitats, although with some scope to artificially expand that
2014). area; e.g., via seaweed aquaculture (Duarte et al., 2017; Hawken,
Albedo enhancement also has a very large potential 2017).
effectiveness in moderating warming (Figure 4A), as a relatively Local measures have a relatively low effectiveness to reduce
small enhancement of the albedo of the dark ocean surface by less warming, acidification, and sea-level rise at the global scale
than 0.05 could compensate the entire GHG-driven perturbation (Figure 4A). However, some have a high to very high effectiveness

BOX 1 | Ocean-based solutions. Measures that address the causes of global climate change either reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or increase
their long-term removal from the atmosphere. Five measures are considered in this group, including negative emissions technologies (see Minx et al., 2018) which
are critical for achieving the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015). (1) Ocean-based renewable energy (hereafter renewable energy)
comprises the production of energy using offshore wind turbines and harvesting of energy from tides, waves, ocean currents, and thermal stratification (Pelc and
Fujita, 2002). (2) The restoration and conservation of coastal vegetation (hereafter vegetation), primarily saltmarshes, mangroves and seagrasses (also referred to as
“blue carbon ecosystems”), seeks to enhance their carbon sink capacity and avoid emissions from their existing large carbon stocks if degraded or destroyed
(Mcleod et al., 2011; Herr and Landis, 2016). This measure is considered not only in terms of global implementation – i.e., assuming theoretical worldwide
conservation and restoration of all such habitats that have been degraded or lost due to human activities – but also local implementation, providing local mitigation
and adaptation benefits in addition to other co-benefits. (3) Fertilization involves the artificial increase in the ocean’s primary production and, hence, carbon uptake
by phytoplankton in the open ocean, to be achieved primarily by adding soluble iron to surface waters where it is currently lacking, mostly in mid-ocean gyres and
the Southern Ocean (Aumont and Bopp, 2006). (4) Alkalinization describes the addition of a variety of alkaline substances that consume CO2 and/or neutralize
acidity (Rau, 2011; Renforth and Henderson, 2017), primarily achieved by raising the concentration of carbonate or hydroxide ions in surface waters, and thereby
shifting the associated chemical equilibria in seawater to increase the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 . The feasibility and effectiveness of adding alkalinity are
considered at both global and local scales. In either case the alkalinity would be derived from land-based mineral or synthetic chemical sources or from locally
available marine material (e.g., waste shells). The alkalinity would then require transport to and distribution within the marine environment. (5) Land-ocean hybrid
methods include the use of the ocean and its sediments to store biomass, CO2 or alkalinity derived from terrestrial sources. Examples are crop residue storage on
the seafloor (Strand and Benford, 2009), marine storage of CO2 from land-based bio-energy or from direct air capture of CO2 (Sanz-Pérez et al., 2016) and
conversion of such CO2 to alkaline forms for ocean storage (Rau, 2011). Hybrid methods also include techniques involving marine-to-land transfers, such as using
marine biomass to fuel biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) on land or using such biomass to form biochar as a soil amendment.
Another area of action to counter global and ocean warming (but which does not directly address the greenhouse gas cause) is solar radiation management
(SRM, also known as sunlight reflection methods). Several schemes were described, including stratospheric aerosol injection (National Research Council, 2015b).
Two ocean-based schemes are considered here. (6) Marine cloud brightening (hereafter cloud brightening) involves the large-scale aerial spraying of seawater or
other substances into the lower atmosphere to increase the amount of sunlight clouds reflect back into space (Latham et al., 2012; Kravitz et al., 2013). Sub-global
implementation could also be considered (Latham et al., 2013). (7) Increased surface ocean albedo (hereafter albedo enhancement) is here considered to be
achieved by long-lived ocean micro-bubbles or foams, produced either by commercial shipping (Crook et al., 2016) or by vessels dedicated to that task.
Four measures relate to the protection of biota and ecosystems. (8) Reducing pollution refers to decreasing release of anthropogenic, harmful substances.
Pollution can exacerbate hypoxia and ocean acidification especially in coastal waters (Cai et al., 2011) while increasing the sensitivity of marine organisms and
ecosystems to climate-related drivers (Alava et al., 2017). (9) Restoring hydrological regimes (restoring hydrology) relates to the maintenance and restoration of
marine hydrological conditions, primarily in coastal waters, including both the tidal and riverine delivery of water and sediments, to alleviate local changes in
climate-related drivers (Howard et al., 2017). (10) Eliminating overexploitation includes ensuring the harvest and extraction of living resources are within
biologically safe limits for sustainable use by humans and to maintain ecosystem function and, in the case of non-living resources (e.g., sand and minerals), in levels
that avoid irreversible ecological impacts. For example, in over-exploited ecosystems, pelagic species that are smaller and faster turnover generally increase in
dominance (Cheung et al., 2007). Abundance of these pelagic species tends to track environmental conditions more closely than large demersal fishes (Winemiller,
2005), the latter are often depleted in over-exploited systems (Cheung et al., 2007). Thus, fisheries with increased dominance of pelagic species are generally more
sensitive to changes in environmental conditions from climate change (Planque et al., 2010). Although species with higher turnover rates may theoretically have more
capacity to adapt evolutionarily to environmental changes (Jones and Cheung, 2018), the scope and rate of such adaptive response for most fishes are unclear
(Munday et al., 2013). Also, over-exploited fish stocks with largely reduced abundance may also have reduced genetic diversity and variability, and consequently the
population will have a reduced scope for adaptation under climate change. (11) The protection of habitats and ecosystems (protection) refers to the conservation of
habitats and ecosystems, primarily through marine protected areas (MPAs). For example, increased abundance of marine species is expected to enhance
productivity of the surrounding areas which can help buffer against climate impacts and increase resilience (Roberts et al., 2017).
In the category “manipulation of biological and ecological adaptation” of organisms and ecosystems to the changing ocean conditions, two measures are
assessed. (12) Assisted evolution involves large-scale genetic modification, captive breeding and release of organisms with enhanced stress tolerance (van Oppen
et al., 2015). (13) Relocation and reef restoration involves not only the restoration of degraded coral and oyster reefs (e.g., van Oppen et al., 2017), but also their
enhancement and active relocation, with the potential creation of new habitats and use of more resilient species or strains. Note that restoration and protection of
vegetated coastal habitats (seagrasses, mangroves, and saltmarshes) is considered in the vegetation measure.
to moderate local ocean acidification (pollution reduction and hybrids methods such as conversion of CO2 to ocean alkalinity
alkalinization) and relative sea-level rise (vegetation, protection, or marine BECCS generally have long duration of the effect. In
restoring hydrology, as well as relocation and reef restoration). contrast, the effect of albedo enhancement and cloud brightening
The duration of the effects varies greatly between the different is short-lived (days to weeks). The loss of most benefits following
methods (Figure 4B). It is close to permanent for renewables as abrupt termination is a characteristic of all SRM schemes (Jones
long as the infrastructure is maintained. The effects of protection et al., 2013). It is projected to increase both ocean and land
are also considered permanent as long as MPAs are enforced, temperature velocities to unprecedented speeds (Trisos et al.,
although future climate change will decrease their ability to 2018).
provide climate mitigation and adaptation benefits (Bruno et al.,
2018). The effects of vegetation can be close to permanent as
long as these ecosystems are maintained or increased in the face Technical Feasibility and Cost
of natural and anthropogenic pressures. In contrast, the effects Effectiveness
of fertilization have a finite duration. Once iron fertilization is Technical feasibility is evaluated by considering current
stopped, a large portion of the additional ocean carbon uptake technological readiness (ranging from schemes at the concept
will outgas back to the atmosphere on decadal to centennial stage to schemes already deployed) and for lead time until
time scales (Aumont and Bopp, 2006). By capturing and storing full potential effectiveness, i.e., the time needed to reach full
CO2 for long time periods or permanently, alkalinization and implementation (ranging from days to decades; see section

FIGURE 3 | Contemporary history of the global implementation of some ocean solutions. (A) Recent changes in the global cumulative offshore wind potential
(European Wind Energy Association, 2011; Global Wind Energy Council, 2016), global cumulative surface of ocean iron fertilization experiment patches (Yoon et al.,
2016), global area of avoided loss of mangroves (Valiela et al., 2001; Hamilton and Casey, 2016), rebuilding of fish stocks (Kleisner et al., 2013) (in % of total fish
stocks), and global cumulative surface of MPAs (Boonzaier and Pauly, 2016) (in % of the global ocean surface). (B) Future progress needed to reach full
implementation of targets for all measures above, i.e., 300 EJ year−1 for offshore wind, all ocean high nutrient and low chlorophyll areas for iron fertilization, 10 and
30% of the global ocean for MPAs (Convention for Biological Diversity, 2010; O’Leary et al., 2017), all overexploited and collapsed fish stocks in the process of
rebuilding (in 2014, 46% of the total fish stock was overexploited or collapsed) (Cheung et al., 2017), and pre-disturbance extent of mangroves (Valiela et al., 2001).
(C) Launch date of some major international conventions or protocols providing governance frameworks for the solutions described in panel (A). For example,
initially dealing with marine pollution, the London Convention and the London Protocol also prohibit ocean iron fertilization (except for research purposes).
“SM2” of the Supplementary Materials). Two local measures The cost effectiveness of the global and local solutions is
have the highest technical feasibility (Figure 4B): protection assessed, in US$ per tonne of CO2 emissions reduced and in
and restoring hydrology. Vegetation (both global and local) and US$ per hectare of surface area of implementation, respectively
renewable energy also have a high technical feasibility, closely (Figure 4E and section “SM3.5” of the Supplementary
followed by eliminating overexploitation, reducing pollution Materials). The costs considered here are best estimates from
and relocation and reef restoration. Five global schemes have the literature for the direct monetary costs of implementation.
the lowest technical feasibility: fertilization, cloud brightening, The non-monetary costs of implementation are considered
alkalinization, albedo enhancement, and hybrid methods. through assessing co-benefits, disbenefits, and governability, as
The local measure assisted evolution also scores very low discussed below. Since cost effectiveness is a relative metric,
on this criterion. These low scores generally reflect lack of it does not reflect the effectiveness of a measure to reduce
testing and deployment at scale, thus they also possess high changes in the drivers. For instance, cloud brightening is cost-
uncertainty. effective despite having a moderate maximum effectiveness to

FIGURE 4 | Assessment of ocean-based measures to address key ocean drivers. Scores 1 to 5: very low, low, moderate (thicker circle), high, and very high.
Confidence levels of the potential effectiveness to moderate ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise are shown in panel (A) (1∗ to 5∗ ; very low, low,
moderate, high, very high; see section “SM2.1” of the Supplementary Materials). Details on the assessment can be found in section “SM3” of the
Supplementary Materials.
moderate ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise example, conserving mangroves to avoid further CO2 emissions
(Figures 2, 4A). Restoration of vegetation to increase CO2 is considerably cheaper than restoring mangroves to enhance
capture has a very low cost effectiveness but conservation of CO2 uptake [4–10 vs. 240 US$/t CO2 (Siikamaki et al., 2012;
vegetation to avoid further emissions is very cost-effective. For Bayraktarov et al., 2016)]. Cloud brightening, protection, and

renewable energy have the highest cost efficiency while albedo tradeoff in climate policy: global measures are more effective than
enhancement, vegetation and relocation and reef restoration have local ones in addressing the climate problem, but they are in
the lowest. Note that cost effectiveness generally increases over general more difficult to implement due to challenges in global
time and with increasing scale of implementation, due to learning governance.
and economies of scale, and that there is uncertainty in many
of these estimates (see section “SM3.5” of the Supplementary
Materials) as reflected in the low levels of confidence. This POTENTIAL TO REDUCE IMPACTS ON
generally is a consequence of lack of economic data from ECOSYSTEMS
testing/deployment of many of these methods at relevant
scales. Reducing the climate-related impacts depends on two attributes,
the effectiveness to reduce exposure to warming, acidification,
Global Governability and sea-level rise (Figure 4A; sections “SM3.1 and SM3.2” of the
Governance is the “effort to craft order, thereby to mitigate conflict, Supplementary Materials) and the sensitivity of ecosystems to
and realize mutual gains” (Williamson, 2000) amongst actors changes in these drivers (Figure 1; section “SM3.3”). Differences
from public, private, and civil society sectors. Here, we assess in these attributes lead to different reduction of impacts
the governability of global and local ocean measures in terms both among drivers and ecosystems (Figure 5). For example,
of the potential capability of the international community to renewable energy consistently scores very high in its combined
implement them, managing associated conflicts and harnessing effectiveness to reduce the impacts because it reduces exposure
mutual benefits (see section “SM2.9” of the Supplementary to all three drivers. In contrast, relocation and reef restoration is
Materials). We focus on the international dimension of decision one of the less effective measures in reducing impacts because,
and action to reflect the global scope of the study, despite the despite the fact that restoration can reduce relative sea-level
fact that we recognize that global and local measures do not rise, it does not necessarily reduce exposure to ocean warming
face the same constrains for implementation – e.g., bi- or multi- and acidification in situ unless the relocation involves species or
lateral diplomatic issues for the former (e.g., Smit, 2014; Cinner habitat transfers to localities that are cooler and/or have higher
et al., 2016; Rabitz, 2016) and local institutional and population pH. Another example is albedo enhancement, the effectiveness of
reluctance challenges for the latter (e.g., Cinner et al., 2016). which is very high to reduce the impacts of warming, high for sea-
On that basis, the governability of a scheme increases level rise and very low for acidification. Thus aside from solutions
with its effectiveness (Ostrom, 2007), the predictability of like massive and rapid deployment of marine renewable energy,
its effects (Hagedorn, 2008; Ostrom, 2009), its co-benefits, multiple and in some cases non-traditional solutions targeting
the absence of disbenefits together with the presence of different drivers may be needed, the combination of which will
national-level net benefits, the presence of enabling institutions be ecosystem-specific. For example, solutions that target warming
and the absence of constraining institutions, and higher and acidification are more important to reduce the impacts on
normative consensus amongst relevant actors (Abbott and coral reefs and Arctic biota, whereas solutions that are most
Snidal, 1998; Barrett, 2005). Global governability is likely to effective to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise will be more
be much higher when there are national-level net benefits relevant for mangroves and saltmarshes.
(i.e., national benefits outweigh the negative environmental While the most effective measures to reduce exposure to
impacts and national costs of implementation), since single all three drivers are the global ones (Figure 4A), they do
nation states may then implement measures without having not generally reduce the sensitivity of the ecosystems to
to rely on international cooperation (Kaul et al., 1999). This climate-related drivers. In contrast, local solutions have low
is the case for protection, vegetation as well as for relocation or moderate effectiveness to reduce changes in climate-related
and reef restoration (Figure 4E and section “SM3.6” of drivers. They aim to moderate impacts primarily through
the Supplementary Materials). Conversely, ocean-based SRM reducing non-climatic drivers that affect the health and resilience
measures (cloud brightening and albedo enhancement), while of coastal ecosystems and marine environments such as pollution,
being more effective in addressing drivers globally, are considered overexploitation, overfishing, and coastal development (Halpern
to have low governability because their implementation generally et al., 2015). Thus, local solutions have a high level of co-
involves international cooperation to solve the free-riding benefits and generally induce a low level of disbenefits since
dilemma with regard to global public goods (Pasztor et al., many have a long history of successfully mitigating non-
2017). Thus nations are likely to be reluctant to unilaterally climate stressors – the value of which is considered in this
take on extra costs that may reduce their own economic study as co-benefits (Figure 5). The most effective measures
competitiveness (Preston, 2013; Rabitz, 2016; Williamson and across all ecosystems (high to very high effectivenesses to
Bodle, 2016). Additionally, SRM measures entail potentially reduce the impacts of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and
significant disbenefits and high uncertainties (Figures 4D, sea-level rise; Figure 4C) are renewable energy, alkalinization,
5; sections “SM3.4 and SM3.4.3” of the Supplementary hybrid methods, vegetation (local) and albedo enhancement, with
Materials), which further reduce their present governability. renewable energy showing the greatest combined effectiveness.
Renewable energy is in an intermediate position: renewables are Protection, restoring hydrology, and eliminating overexploitation
becoming more economically competitive compared with fossil- also score relatively high to reduce impacts on seagrass habitats,
fuel based energy, thereby providing national-level incentives to mangroves and saltmarshes (Figure 5). Relocation and reef
implementation. Taken together, the scores exhibit a fundamental restoration and cloud brightening consistently have the lowest

FIGURE 5 | Contribution of ocean-based solutions to reduce the impacts of key ocean drivers on key ecosystems (A–D) and ecosystem services (E–H). The
combined potential effectiveness represents the average potential effectiveness to reduce the impacts of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise (see
section “SM3” of the Supplementary Materials). Scores 1 to 5: very low, low, moderate (thicker circle), high, and very high.

combined potential effectiveness; however, if reef restoration impacting fisheries and aquaculture production, and the coastal
were considered separately from relocation, it would score higher protection value of coastal habitats. Furthermore, alkalinization
(especially with regard to reducing local relative sea-level rise). is only moderately effective in reducing the impacts of sea-
The potential to reduce the impacts of non-climatic level rise, which is the primary driver affecting mangroves and
drivers is a key attribute of local measures because it saltmarshes. A similar conclusion applies to most of the global
increases the resilience of ecosystems to climate change measures, notably cloud brightening and albedo enhancement,
(O’Leary et al., 2017). For example, protection and eliminating where large-scale deployment may risk high levels of disbenefits.
overexploitation can support high reproductive outputs and In contrast, although our assessment suggests that large-scale
juvenile recruitment following climate-related mass mortalities, renewable energy may lead to some local collateral damages on
allowing for population recovery from extreme events (Micheli ecosystem services when these systems are deployed in coastal
et al., 2012; Roberts et al., 2017). Moreover, these measures ecosystems, these impacts may be largely moderated through
produce co-benefits, such as spillover benefits of MPAs to careful planning and consultation (Pelc and Fujita, 2002). In
adjacent areas supporting shellfish fisheries and aquaculture, and contrast, minimal damage is anticipated for deep-water floating
few, if any disbenefits, especially for coral reefs and vegetated systems currently being tested.
marine habitats (Roberts et al., 2017). Some MPAs are more Measures that are most effective to reduce climate-related
affected by coral bleaching than fished areas because they harbor drivers locally (e.g., relative sea-level rise) often also have
more thermally sensitive corals (Graham et al., 2008) but there the dual benefit of minimizing the impacts from non-
is a strong case that protected coral reefs recover better (Cinner climatic drivers affecting coastal and marine ecosystems and
et al., 2013). environments (e.g., pollution, overexploitation, overfishing, and
Whilst local solutions can decrease the total (climate- and coastal development). As a result, the most effective local-
non-climate related) impacts and improve ecosystems’ resilience, scale interventions to maintain healthy conditions for fin
they cannot eliminate all of the climate-related component of fisheries, fish and bivalve aquaculture, and coastal protection
impacts. For example, water quality and fishing pressure had are eliminating overexploitation, restoring hydrology, reducing
minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching of 2016 (Hughes pollution, vegetation, and protection (Figure 5). Modeling
et al., 2017b). Furthermore, and despite local protections, the studies indeed suggest that the increase in stock abundance
changes associated with a high CO2 emission scenario will result and productivity by effective management of fisheries and
in further habitat and species losses throughout low-latitude and conservation of fish stocks (Costello et al., 2016) is likely
tropical MPAs, for example through the effects of warming on to compensate losses from climate change (Cheung et al.,
habitat-forming species such as corals, thereby reducing their 2017). It was shown that sustainable mangrove management
beneficial roles (Bruno et al., 2018). interventions support surface elevation gains, thus limiting
Despite the fact that most solutions implemented at local relative sea-level rise (Sasmito et al., 2016). More generally,
scales have a limited effectiveness to reduce the impacts of protection and vegetation enable mangroves, saltmarshes, coral
warming, acidification, and sea-level rise globally, they all have reefs, and seagrass to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise on
some beneficial effects, which could help in countering global coastal communities through wave attenuation and shoreline
climate impact if scaled beyond their current implementation. stabilization. Maintaining the health of ecosystems that provide
For example, seaweeds and seagrasses can reduce ocean coastal protection also has significant additional co-benefits to
acidification locally (e.g., Unsworth et al., 2012; Mcleod et al., local human communities (e.g., carbon sequestration, water
2013) and can potentially buffer adjacent coral populations by filtering, tourism, food security, recreation; Barbier et al., 2011;
off-setting decreases in seawater pH (Camp et al., 2016). Weatherdon et al., 2016), in addition to supporting their
resilience to climate impacts (Carilli et al., 2009). It is not
surprising then that many countries are actively including marine
POTENTIAL TO REDUCE IMPACTS ON ecosystems in their national climate plans as shown by the
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Nationally Determined Contributions submitted under the Paris
Agreement (Gallo et al., 2017).
Sensitive ecosystem services are also expected to benefit from
the implementation of measures that have the highest potential
effectiveness in addressing climate drivers globally, such as PATHWAYS TO IMPLEMENTATION
renewable energy and alkalinization (Figure 4A). Our assessment,
however, suggests that these measures may also lead to significant Clusters of Potential Solutions and
disbenefits (Figures 5B–E, sections “SM3.4 and SM3.4.3” of Tradeoffs
the Supplementary Materials). For instance, the addition of A principal components analysis (see section “SM4” of the
non-carbonate alkaline minerals may perturb biogeochemical Supplementary Materials) was used to reduce the eight
processes though the release of mineral constituents such as dimensions of our assessment dataset defined by the scoring
cadmium, nickel, chromium, iron, and silicon (Hartmann et al., criteria to two latent dimensions that explain most of the
2013). This may alter the pattern of primary and secondary variance in the assessment data. Three clusters of schemes emerge
production, and increase contaminant accumulation along the (Figure 6). The first one includes alkalinization at the global scale,
food chain (Russell et al., 2012; Alava et al., 2017), possibly hybrid methods, albedo enhancement, and cloud brightening,

local scale and fertilization, which have low to moderate scores

across most criteria assessed.
Ocean Governance Challenges

Measures which are the most technically feasible also have
the highest global governability (Figure 4). They comprise
protection, eliminating overexploitation, reducing pollution,
vegetation, relocation and reef restoration, and renewable
energy. Except for the latter, all these measures are local. Their
governability is high to very high except for restoring hydrology
and assisted evolution (moderate or low). Global measures such
as albedo enhancement, fertilization, hybrid methods, cloud
brightening, and alkalinization have a lower overall technical
feasibility, partly due to lack of testing and experience, together
with moderate to low governability. Yet none of these schemes
do much to reduce or moderate the impacts of the climate-
related drivers considered in this study (ocean warming, ocean
acidification and sea-level rise).
Such conclusions highlight the need for multiple-scale and
multiple-stakeholder initiatives, hence calling for improved
international governance mechanisms to ensure coherency in
ocean-based climate action. These governance challenges are,
FIGURE 6 | Principal components analysis (PCA) of the attributes of however, constrained by controversies on the potential solutions,
ocean-based solutions. (A) Correlations among criteria, some being averaged which scientific investigations and policy engagement can help
across ecosystems and ecosystem services. When two arrows point in the overcome. Controversies are mostly in the “addressing the causes
same direction, the criteria are correlated: the scores of most solutions are
of climate change” and “solar radiation management” areas of
similar for these two criteria (e.g., both warming-related criteria, co-benefits,
and readiness). When they point in opposite directions, criteria are action (Figure 2). They include: the moral hazard dilemma, i.e.,
anti-correlated (e.g., moderate warming and global governability). When they that development and deployment of alternative solutions might
are perpendicular, criteria are uncorrelated (e.g., acidification-related criteria decrease effort on emission reductions (Preston, 2013; McLaren,
and readiness). (B) Positions of solutions in the PCA. Solutions on the right 2016); the risk of premature lock-in of suboptimal solutions and
have high scores in the criteria that point to the right and low scores in the
attributes that point to the left; a similar reasoning can be made for any
path dependencies (Burns et al., 2016; Reynolds et al., 2016);
direction in this space. Solutions are clustered into three groups, through and concerns regarding controllability and transnational effects
hierarchical clustering based on their position in the PCA space, and colored (Williamson and Bodle, 2016). Ethical issues are also important,
accordingly. The first two principal components explain 65% of the variance in relating to informed consent and potential adverse impacts on
the attributes of ocean-based solutions. Attributes or solutions that are not countries unable to deploy such measures (Svoboda, 2012; Suarez
well represented in this space are shown in smaller font (representativity or
“Repr.” varies between 0 and 1). See section “SM5” of the Supplementary
and van Aalst, 2017; Rahman et al., 2018); and vested interests,
Materials for details on the PCA approach, and sections “SM3 and SM4” for as production and deployment of innovative measures could be
additional information on the assessment. a highly profitable market (Preston, 2013). Controversies related
to the “protection of biota and ecosystems” and “manipulation
to enhance biological and ecological adaptation” areas of action
which show high potential effectiveness to reduce warming mostly arise from conflicts relating to local, national and global-
and acidification, and their impacts. However, there has been scale interests, and the balance between short-term and long-
relatively little research, testing and application on such solutions, term benefits and disbenefits (Cooley et al., 2016; Cormier-Salem
and they generally score low for technological readiness, and Panfili, 2016). Such trade-offs between “winners” and “losers”
co-benefits, lack of disbenefits, and global governability. In highlight the influence of social norms and values that may
contrast, the second cluster includes almost all local measures differ greatly between different stakeholders (Hopkins et al., 2016;
(protection, reducing pollution, vegetation at the local scale, Lubchenco et al., 2016). Testing the veracity of such perceptions
eliminating overexploitation, restoring hydrology and relocation via further research and demonstration of novel measures at
and restoration), and is characterized by low effectiveness to relevant scales will clarify governance issues.
reduce warming and its impacts, and moderate effectiveness to
reduce ocean acidification and relative sea-level rise and their The Way Forward
impacts. These measures are, however, technologically ready, The global implementation or testing of renewable energy,
have significant co-benefits, few disbenefits and can also help fertilization, vegetation, eliminating overexploitation, and
to reduce the impacts of non-climatic drivers. Renewable energy protection has accelerated sharply in the past two decades
stands apart as it exhibits both high potential effectiveness and (Figure 3). In particular, several local measures (vegetation,
technology readiness, thus ranging in between clusters 1 and 2. protection, and eliminating overexploitation) may achieve their
The third cluster includes assisted evolution, alkalinization at the full potential in a few decades at their current rate of deployment.

Nevertheless, the scale of deployment for most solutions rather than only the climate-related effectiveness or cost
remains far below what would be necessary to effectively address effectiveness.
climate change drivers and impacts (Figure 4B). Delivering Second, ocean-based measures with relatively high global
the full potential of global measures such as renewable energy, effectiveness (such as albedo enhancement) have significant
alkalinization, and hybrid methods requires orders-of-magnitude adverse side effects on key marine ecosystems and services.
increases in their research, testing, and deployment. Such action In contrast, local measures rank higher in terms of global
is considered urgent on the basis of the climatic threats to governability, co-benefits and lack of disbenefits, and have a
ocean sustainability (Gattuso et al., 2015), and since there are moderate ability to reduce climate-related impacts, only offering
decadal lag times until full maximum effectiveness of all the local opportunities for mitigation. The emerging picture is that
global measures considered here (Figure 4B and section “SM3.1” actions in addition to local and more conventional marine
of the Supplementary Materials). In the meantime, there will management are needed to increase chances of avoiding or
likely be significant increases in climate-related impacts on ocean countering climate impacts. It is unlikely that a single measure
ecosystems and services, which will reduce ecosystems’ ability to will be able to meet a pathway consistent with the Paris
provide local solutions (Albright et al., 2016; Cheung et al., 2016; Agreement. The introduction of multiple measures, including
Cinner et al., 2016), thereby decreasing leeway for action (Gattuso land-based ones, would require deployment of each of them
et al., 2015). at decreased scales relative to single-measure deployments, and
It is clear that the familiar and conventional marine would also reduce the risk of side effects (see also Minx et al.,
management strategies cannot fully counter climate change and 2018).
its impacts. Accelerating research and deployment of other Third, some measures that offer greater effectiveness in
potential solutions will, however, challenge the capacity of countering climate and its impacts (e.g., alkalinization, cloud
science, policy, and decision-making in evaluating and deploying brightening, albedo enhancement, and assisted evolution)
solutions. Defining road maps to drastically enhance action faces currently exhibit too many uncertainties to be recommended
major constraints relating to the large uncertainties in key non- for large-scale deployment until more research is conducted.
climatic variables. Thus socioeconomic conditions may flip the However, measures with demonstrated potential effectiveness,
balance between fossil fuel markets and renewables, potentially co-benefits and with no or few disbenefits (renewable energy
catalyzing a rapid acceleration of the deployment of marine as well as other local solutions except assisted evolution) are
renewables, but not necessarily with adequate consideration of no-regret measures that can be widely deployed immediately,
local disbenefits. There is also a need to consider a broader range as other potential solutions are explored. The high merits of
of measures than those assessed here, many of which are still in renewable energy is consistent with the conventional policy
their infancy and unfamiliar to marine management (e.g., large- approach that the best way to avoid climate impacts (on the
scale seaweed aquaculture, or abiotic methods of removing or marine environment, as well as elsewhere) is to eliminate the
stripping CO2 from seawater). This calls for the development of primary driver, excess atmospheric CO2 concentration, by
policies and funding to foster and promote research into new or drastically reducing CO2 emissions (Gattuso et al., 2015).
emerging ocean and climate management options. Fourth, climate change intervention at multiple scales requires
that multiple and diverse actors are involved, hence calling for
coordination across scales. Interestingly, besides being central to
OUTLOOK decisions on global measures, our assessment suggests that the
international community can also play an indirect supporting
Current pledges under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to role to the implementation of local solutions. The international
hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2◦ C community must therefore accelerate diplomatic and political
above pre-industrial levels, calling for a dramatic increase in efforts, especially within institutions such as the UNFCCC
global mitigation effort. However, even with a full and timely and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, to improve
implementation of the Agreement, major impacts on sensitive existing arrangements or find new ones, and develop facilitative
marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and Arctic biota are mechanisms for global to local action.
expected, requiring additional, ambitious and rapid actions to Fifth, since there are controversies and uncertainties on
address climate-related drivers locally, minimize their impacts, many of the measures we considered, a better scientific
and increase resilience. To support efforts to address the ocean’s understanding of solution benefits, disbenefits, costs, and suitable
potential contribution to these mitigation and adaptation goals, governance arrangements is needed to inform policy and
our assessment highlights five evidence-based key messages. decision making. For example, 41% of the scores have low
First, each measure has tradeoffs. For example, alkalinization to very low levels of confidence (see section “SM3.4” of the
scores high in global mitigation potential, but low in Supplementary Materials). A major area of research thus relies
technological readiness or global governability. In contrast, in better determining potential effectiveness, cost-effectiveness,
measures implemented locally such as protection and reducing and desirability under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
pollution have strong co-benefits and high governability, but Furthermore, given the social challenges involved in all potential
have a much lower effectiveness to moderate changes in climate- solutions, social science research is needed for understanding
related drivers. Decisions favoring any measure must therefore factors that hinder or promote effective and fair governance
consider multiple criteria, including effectiveness, feasibility, of ocean-based solutions (Magnan et al., 2016). In turn, this
co-benefits, disbenefits, governability, and cost effectiveness, will allow a balanced consideration of new, unconventional

ideas (e.g., regional cloud brightening to reduce pressures the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre of the
on coral reefs, advanced hybrid technologies, or innovative International Atomic Energy Agency, the Veolia Foundation, and
governance solutions for reconciling social conflicts associated the French Facility for Global Environment. AKM thanks the
to measures). This is a prerequisite for providing decision- and French Government for its support under the “Investissements
policy-makers with robust information, for example through the d’avenir” programme, managed by the French National Research
various products of the sixth assessment cycle of the IPCC. As Agency (ANR-10-LABX-14-01). RB was supported by the
new knowledge and insights become available, it is key that RESCCUE project funded by the French Development Agency
scientists effectively engage with the general public and decision and the French Global Environment Facility (AFD CZZ 2205 01
makers, especially discussing the potential, feasibility, tradeoffs W and FFEM CZZ 1667 01 H). WWLC acknowledges funding
and social preferences of specific measures, and the consequences support from the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program.
of failing to deploy solutions on time. This will notably help to CMD participation was partly supported by King Abdullah
increase mutual understanding and serve to reduce confusion University of Science and Technology (KAUST) through baseline
and misinformation regarding the realized and future impacts of funding. JH was partly supported by the European Union’s
climate change on the ocean (Gelcich et al., 2014). Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant
agreement number 642018 (GREEN-WIN project) and by the
grant SEASCAPE from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
CONCLUSION (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)-1889
“Regional Sea Level Change and Society” (SeaLevel). EM was
Both the marine policy and science communities need to supported by the Nature Conservancy and the International
recognize the uncertainties and limitations of currently available Climate Initiative (IKI) funded by the German Federal Ministry
climate and ocean management options; support the immediate for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear
development of the most promising ones, e.g., renewable energy Safety. FM was partly supported by the US NSF (DEB-
and local actions that can be scaled up; and acknowledge 1212124 and OCE-1736830) and JJM by the Netherlands Earth
that new or emerging measures that are not part of current System Science Center. The contents in this manuscript are
marine management practice might, through further research solely the opinions of the authors and do not constitute a
and testing, prove cost-effective as well as environmentally and statement of policy, decision, or position on behalf of the Pacific
socially acceptable. Community.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
J-PG, AKM, LB, WWLC, CMD, JH, EM, FM, AO, PW, RB,
VIC, RDG, JJM, H-OP, and GHR designed and carried out the We thank M. Khamla (CNRS) and S. Ghani (King Abdullah
research. All co-authors conducted the analyses and wrote the University of Science and Technology) for help with artwork.
paper.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
FUNDING
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found
This is a product of “The Oceans Solutions Initiative”, an expert online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.
group supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, 2018.00337/full#supplementary-material
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH

published: 04 October 2018

Ocean Solutions to Address Climate

Frontiers in Marine Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 October 2018 | Volume 5 | Article 337

INTRODUCTION reduce the magnitude and rate of ocean warming, ocean

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sensitive to ocean acidification include calcifiers such as

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POTENTIAL TO REDUCE KEY OCEAN

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local scale and fertilization, which have low to moderate scores

Ocean Governance Challenges

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