Mitigating The Transmission of COVID-19 in The Philippines: A Six Sigma Approach
Mitigating The Transmission of COVID-19 in The Philippines: A Six Sigma Approach
Hazel A. Caparas
Industrial Engineering Department
Bulacan State University
City of Malolos, Bulacan, Philippines, 3000
[email protected]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly paralyzed the movement and everyday activities of many countries.
In the Philippines, the first local transmission of coronavirus began last March 2020 and there has been a
continuous increase in the number of positive cases. The study focuses on analyzing and identifying
contributing factors on mitigating the transmission of COVID-19 in the country. Different drivers in
achieving the critical need were identified such as the efficiency of contact tracing, isolation of possible
carrier of the virus, rate of performed test to determine the individuals’ positive on having the disease, the
rate of patients’ recovery, and the effectiveness of implementing community quarantine and social
distancing. The study used Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC) Framework in
analyzing and providing improvements on the current situation of COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
Keywords
DMAIC, Six Sigma, COVID-19, Disease Transmission, and Critical to Satisfaction.
1. Introduction
Coronavirus disease also known as COVID-19 is caused by new strain of coronavirus originally identified to begin in
Wuhan, China on December 2019 (Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Philippines, 2020). It is a highly
transmittable disease that causes patients to experience common symptoms such as fever, tiredness, and dry cough.
There are also cases in which the disease gives aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat and even
diarrhea to infected individuals (World Health Organization, 2020). Older people and those groups having an impaired
immune system are considered to be greatly vulnerable of being infected by COVID-19.
The first imported case of COVID-19 in the Philippines has been recorded on January 30, 2020 and a total of three
(3) confirmed positive cases between the January and February, 2020. On March 7, 2020, the first local transmission
has been confirmed in which there were seven (7) reported cases tested positive for COVID-19. Since then, the
country’s national and local health agencies increased and widen its contact tracing activities to identify possible
carrier of coronavirus disease. During this early stage of COVID-19 in the Philippines, there was only one testing
center for COVID-19 test with a capacity of only 300 tests per day (Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Situation Report
1 Philippines 9 March 2020, 2020). On March 16, 2020, the entire Luzon has been placed under Enhanced Community
Quarantine (ECQ) which was initially effective until April 12, 2020. Enhanced community quarantine imposes
restrictions on movements of people, stoppage on public transportation and closure of non-essential establishments.
Due to increase in number of positive cases and reported fatality, the said ECQ has been extended until April 30, 2020.
Six Sigma methodology provides a systematic way of analyzing and providing solutions to problems. It uses tools and
techniques in analyzing data to clearly define and evaluate each component of a system and step of a process. One
target of this methodology is to continuously improve a system and processes in order to achieve stable and predictable
outcome (Six Sigma Daily, 2020). The most common and effective framework of Six Sigma methodology is the
DMAIC approach. This framework involved phases such as Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control stages.
The study aims to have an in-depth and systematic understanding on the current state of COVID-19 pandemic in the
Philippines by utilizing DMAIC approach and various Six Sigma tools and techniques. It intends to analyze different
contributing factors to mitigate the transmission of coronavirus disease in the country. Moreover, results of data-
analysis target to provide recommendations to further improve the present programs and action plans currently
implemented in the country.
2. Define Phase
2.1 Problem Statement
Generally, there is an increasing trend in number of new positive COVID-19 cases in the Philippines as of April 2020.
The highest number of new positive cases as of April 14, 2020 was recorded on March 31, 2020 with 538 confirmed
COVID-19 cases. At present, the latest number of confirmed positive cases is at least 6,000 and there are 446 cases
of deaths. The highest portion of confirmed positive cases and fatalities is identified in Metro Manila (COVID-19
Tracker Philippines, 2020). The effectiveness of identifying the possible carrier of coronavirus disease is very critical
and is done through contact tracing. Based on World Health Organization, there are three (3) main procedures in
carrying out the contact tracing of individuals who are most likely positive for COVID-19. These procedures include
contact identification, contact listing and contact follow-up. The identified individuals are then categorized as Person
Under Investigation (PUI) and Person Under Monitoring (PUM) and are required to follow strict home quarantine.
Contact identification procedure is performed by interviewing the person’s activities and possible contact to other
person. One important factor of stemming the transmission of COVID-19 is by intensifying and improving the current
state of contact tracing since the procedure merely relies on the response of the person being asked and not on the
actual records of activities and whereabouts. In terms of isolation of persons under monitoring and investigations, the
primary health agency imposes strict home quarantine due to lack of sufficient isolation facilities. One study explains
that there is insufficiency in the number of critical care beds in the country to accommodate the estimated cases of
8,800 to 19,000 critical COVID-19 patients. The same study also determined that the country is far from the WHO
standard ratio of 10 doctors for every 10,000 individual since the Philippines only has 3.7 doctors for every 10,000
people (Estimating Local Healthcare Capacity to Deal with COVID-19 Case Surge: Analysis and Recommendations,
2020). Another factor that influences the transmission of COVID-19 in the Philippines is the capacity of testing
laboratories to perform COVID-19 test. As of April 22, 2020, the country has a rate of 0.556 performed tests per 1,000
people which is very much lower as compared to other Asian countries like South Korea with 11.221 tests per 1,000
people and Singapore with 10.065 tests per 1,000 people (Total Test per Thousand since 100th case, 2020). A backlog
in COVID-19 testing impedes the efficiency of the country in performing its COVID-19 testing and also a contributing
factor in proactively containing the spread of the disease. This bottleneck involves a total of 103,230 tests as of April
14, 2020 which evidently indicates the urgent need on increasing the capacity of the country’s testing kits, testing
laboratories and number of medical personnel capable of performing the test (COVID-19 Tracker Philippines, 2020).
On the other hand, as of April 23, 2020 the recovery rate of patients infected of COVID-19 in the Philippines is at
60.79% which is lower than the global recovery rate of at least 79%. The prompt response of the country to impede
the local transmission of coronavirus disease is to implement Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) particularly
on the entire Luzon. According to the Department of Health of the Philippines, the implementation of Luzon-wide
ECQ effectively decreases by half the expanding number of COVID-19 positive cases (Ornedo, 2020). However, the
country is having difficulty in achieving the full execution of this protocol due to some people consistently violating
orders. Based on the report of the Philippine National Police (PNP), as of April 21, 2020 there are 136, 517 recorded
violators of on-going enhanced community quarantine for the past 35 days (Bajo, 2020). This condition could
negatively affect the goal of ECQ in stemming the transmission of COVID-19 in the country.
The containment process starts from identification of PUI based from the classification from the Department of Health
(DOH). As long as a person has travel history abroad and exposure to a person with confirmed case whether
symptomatic or asymptomatic, a person is considered PUI. After identifying PUIs, they are subjected for quarantine
for 14 days either quarantine at home or barangay isolation units. All PUIs will be tested to confirm if they have
COVID-19 but the vulnerable people will be prioritized first due to limited testing resources like testing kits, qualified
testing facilities and laboratories, and specialists. Vulnerable people are composed of elderly persons, pregnant
women, and persons with preexisting conditions (i.e., pneumonia, diabetes). Testing is conducted twice which is once
per week to check the presence of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) in the throat and in the lungs through mucus from the
nose. The result is released around 24 to 48 hours depending on the testing laboratory. Once results are negative, that
person will be removed from the list of being PUI. If otherwise and the person is asymptomatic, that person is subjected
for home isolation or quarantine in a barangay isolation unit and if symptomatic, that person is subjected for hospital
admission. In the hospital, the patient is monitored if SARS-CoV-2 virus is still present on that person. The testing is
same as before the hospital admission. If the result is both negative for two (2) tests and the person has no observed
symptoms, that person will now be discharged but still under home isolation, otherwise, the patient will still be in the
hospital for recuperation. The process map is shown in Figure 2.
3. Measure Phase
3.1 Measurement System Analysis (MSA)
MSA is conducted to show accuracy and precision of acquired data but due to certain limitation in terms of
accessibility, this will not be presented as the typical Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R&R) Study and
Attribute Agreement Analysis for continuous and discrete data, respectively. This is because the data source about
COVID-19 is mainly from government agencies such as the Department of Health (DOH) and no other institutions
are generating and keeping COVID-19 related reports and records. The government collated these data all over the
country with the help of its local agencies. For the data collected, a metric classification is made for the critical to
satisfaction requirements identifying the measure type whether response variable or predictor variable and the data
type whether continuous or discrete. (Table 1)
The factors considered in this classification are those related to the number of cases such as the testing capacity, bed
capacity, and recovery rate. They represent the drivers for the need of mitigating COVID-19 transmission in the
Philippines. Contact tracing parameters are not included in this classification because of its dependency to the testing
capacity for the prevailing policy is that contact tracing will be done after identifying a PUI to be a confirmed positive
case. On the other hand, effectiveness of ECQ and social distancing measure is not included in the list of factors due
to limited data availability but will be included in the analysis to show if it has effect on the number of COVID-19
cases in the Philippines.
the Department of Health, contact tracing will commence after identifying confirmed cases. It can be observed that
the bed capacity can accommodate admitted confirmed positive patients based on the mean actual value of the acquired
data. It can be inferred that there is no existing problem in the number of beds for isolation of COVID-19 patients.
But since the number of cases is continuing to exist, target is still placed on the bed capacity as a preparation for the
future state in the number of COVID-19 patients admitted. In addition, recovery rate is continuously increasing which
is good but still a target is indicated to lessen chances of spreading the virus through reduction of active confirmed
positive cases.
4. Analyze Phase
4.1 Key Source of Variation
To identify the key sources of variation of the number of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, it is
necessary to check and describe the data gathered. Before conducting any inferential statistics, it is better to consider
assumptions and conditions for each appropriate test. Since there are identified factors as predictor variables and a
response variable, regression analysis was conducted. But before proceeding with this analysis, the data must be
normally distributed. Normality test was done to determine the data gathered per variable are normally distributed
shown in Table 4. Based on the results, the data are all normally distributed, they are fit for a regression analysis.
Table 3. Regression Analysis on Identifying Factors Affecting the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Philippines
Table 3. Normality Test of the Identified Factors Affecting the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Philippines
Mean
Median
Testing capacity 0.927 Normal 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000
95% Confidence Interval for Mean
63341 80771
95% Confidence Interval for Median
60598 83869
95% Confidence Interval for StDev
9717 23289
Mean
Median
Bed capacity 0.925 Normal 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
95% Confidence Interval for Mean
1369.3 2242.2
95% Confidence Interval for Median
1213.0 2234.7
95% Confidence Interval for StDev
486.6 1166.3
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
30 40 50 60 70
After satisfying the normality and independency assumption, regression analysis was conducted. Poisson regression
is used to identify relationship of discrete response variable with discrete predictor variables. The results in Table 3
shows that all identified factors namely testing capacity (Test_Cap), bed capacity (Beds), and recovery rate
(Recoveries) are significantly related with the response variable of COVID-19 cases (Case). The identified factors are
not enough to significantly explain the variability of the response variable of COVID-19 cases because of low
Deviance R-squared (18.16%) and Deviance R-squared adjusted (16.54%) values and Akaike information criterion
(AIC) (244.23) value is high. There are still other factors that are not considered but significantly related to the
COVID-19 cases. No multicollinearity (dependency among factors) exists in the variables due to low variance
inflation factor (VIF).
Figure 4. Persons under Investigation Based on Testing Capacity and Backlog Tests
Since the factors run in regression analysis were not sufficient, other factors seemingly related to the number of
COVID-19 cases were also analyzed. Based from the health department data, testing capacity is too low compared to
the number of backlog tests (Figure 4) meaning many PUI are waiting for the test results. Based on some reports, there
are PUI who already passed away but results are still hanging wherein some of these PUI were confirmed positive. In
that note, contact tracing was not efficiently done and it imposed a risk to increase more PUI because some people
were unaware that they might be exposed to these persons and they were not isolated.
As additional consideration, effectiveness of ECQ and social distancing measure was also analyzed. Based on the time
series plot of 3 ECQ quarters particularly in Luzon area with highest number of COVID-19 cases, it can be observed
that the range of COVID-19 cases were reduced per quarter (Figure 5). As ECQ was extended, variability was being
reduced showing that controls were done effective. But still, the number of COVID-19 cases are 100 and up. To show
that there is an improvement in the number of COVID-19 cases per ECQ quarter, one-way ANOVA as conducted.
Based on the results on Table 5, there is no significant difference between the 3 ECQ quarters which means no
significant improvement can be shown.
Table 5. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) on the Number of Cases Each Quarter of ECQ
Table 6. Why-Why Analysis for the Identified Factors Related to the Increase of COVID-19 Cases in the Philippines
Identified factors
affecting the transmission Why Why Why
of COVID-19
Limited qualified It takes time for Limited personnel of health
testing facilities testing facilities to be department to conduct
accredited accreditation
Limited testing kits Delayed purchase of The health department prioritized
Low testing capacity testing kits the treatment of confirmed
positive cases
Limited specialists to Specialists are not The health department prioritized
conduct testing sourced out specialists for the treatment of
confirmed positive cases
Contact tracing is Conducted after Policy imposed by the health
Poor contact tracing dependent on test identifying confirmed department
results positive cases
Many people in places Ineffective control of Policy is not strictly
Ineffective ECQ and
with most number of people implemented
social distancing measure
cases still go out
Based on the results of why-why analysis in Table 6, there are 6 root causes identified for the identified factors
affecting transmission of COVID-19. These factors are low testing capacity, poor contact tracing and ineffective ECQ
and social distancing measure. The root causes are mainly due to limited personnel and in problem and deficiency
with imposed policies.
5. Improve Phase
5.1 Recommendation
For the Improve Phase, recommendations were presented for each identified root cause. Ease level, cost basis, and
impact level were indicated in prioritizing solutions. Cost and benefit analysis in monetary values are not presented in
Table 7 due to limited access to actual costs and gains. As an alternative, subjective rating was made to weigh which
solutions are more impactful, easy, and highly probable to be funded especially by the government. Since contact
tracing is highly dependent on the testing rate and ECQ policies will be improved if all PUI are tested, it is better to
solve first the problem in COVID-19 testing. The solutions with regards to testing rely on adding more resources such
as personnel for the accreditation of testing facilities, specialists for testing, and testing kits. If given enough
prioritization, the solutions can be done and may reflect significant improvement in the number of COVID-19 cases
in the Philippines. It is also recommended to perform mass testing particularly in high-risk community or those areas
with high number of COVID-19 positive cases. Local government units (LGU) may allot resources to perform mass
testing on their respective areas. LGU may evaluate the allocation of available resources and determine if providing
free testing is feasible.
Another recommendation is providing aid in contact tracing procedure. The current procedure involves asking the
person activities and whereabouts. It might be helpful to persons doing the contact tracing to have physical records
regarding the activities in order to identify possible carriers of coronavirus disease. Thus, it is recommended that the
residents going to market or other establishments should log first their contact information and destination on their
respective local district or village checkpoints. Also, surveillance cameras positioned on every street might be a good
source of information for contact tracing. In addition, public market and private establishments may require their
customers to record first their contact information before entry. Another recommendation is for every member of
households to have an initiative in recording their daily activities, whereabouts and people they have contact with
while the country is still affected by local transmission of COVID-19. In order to achieve a higher level of effectiveness
of these recommendations, it is recommended to strictly isolate person under investigation and monitoring in
community centralized isolation facility.
Lastly, enhanced community quarantine violators add to difficulty achieving the critical need of mitigating the
transmission of COVID-19 in the country. At present, different localities implement their own reprimands for ECQ
violators. It is recommended to strictly implement ECQ and curfew hours since this can considerably affect the
transmission of COVID-19 particularly in high-risk areas. Strict and effective checkpoints are already in position.
Thus, ECQ and curfew hour’s violators may be given reprimands by participating programs beneficial to the
community.
6. Control Phase
For the recommendations to be placed into reality, implementation plan was made. (Table 8) This plan shows how
will the recommendations will be done and other details needed for them to happen. In addition to that, constant
monitoring must be done regularly to track whether there is an improvement happening through applying these
recommendations. Better to track daily number of cases and daily changes of other parameters instead of just looking
at the cumulative figures of the reports for COVID-19.
results are not COVID-19 cases government units before wherein PUI must be facilities are
released and like Luzon (LGU) ECQ ends properly monitored and cared assigned and
strictly assigning (May 15) of; Deployment of enough provided
limitations for soldiers and policemen to
people who will control people from
go outside for crowding in different areas
their needs with most number of
COVID-19 cases
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Biographies
Jeremy Laurence M. Bañez is an Industrial Engineer who is currently an Instructor of Industrial Engineering
Department in Bulacan State University, City of Malolos, Bulacan, Philippines. He is now taking up Master of Science
in Industrial Engineering major in Operations Research in University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City,
Philippines. He used to work as an Area Leader in a waste treatment facility. He is recognized as a Certified Industrial
Engineer by the Philippine Institute of Industrial Engineers (PIIE) and an Associate ASEAN Engineer endorsed by
the Philippine Technological Council (PTC). He is also a Certified Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belter. He has published
a journal regarding ergonomics and an article related to evolution of lean. His research interests include Ergonomics,
Simulation, Optimization, and Lean Six Sigma. He is also interested in conducting feasibility studies. Moreover, he
is interested in field areas of environment, agriculture, and energy.
Hazel Caparas is an ASEAN Engineer and a graduate of Master of Science in Industrial Engineering with
specialization in Human Factors and Ergonomics at University of the Philippines – Diliman on June 2017. She
received Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering in Bulacan State University on 2010. She conducted various
studies focusing on Process Improvements and Human Factors and Ergonomics. She also acquired solid experience
in operations management as an Operations Analyst in a food manufacturing company for four years. Caparas is
currently a College Instructor in a State University handling Industrial Engineering courses such as Human Factors
and Ergonomics, Occupational Safety and Health and Facilities Planning and Design.
Ivy Mar Ramos is an ASEAN Engineer and a Professional Industrial Engineer. He earned Master of Business
Administration degree in Bulacan State University. He conducted various studies focusing on Process Improvements,
Operations Management and Methods Engineering. He also acquired solid experience in Strategic Process
Management and Quality Assurance. Ramos is currently a Director of Internal Quality Audit and an Associate
Professor in a State University handling Industrial Engineering courses such as Methods Engineering, Engineering
Economy, Marketing and Strategic Project Management.