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Venn Diagrams & Conditional Probability

The document discusses Venn diagrams and their uses in probability. It provides examples of calculating probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements of events. Conditional probabilities are also covered, including the formulas and examples of calculating P(A|B) for both dependent and independent events.

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whereis33jr
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37 views6 pages

Venn Diagrams & Conditional Probability

The document discusses Venn diagrams and their uses in probability. It provides examples of calculating probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements of events. Conditional probabilities are also covered, including the formulas and examples of calculating P(A|B) for both dependent and independent events.

Uploaded by

whereis33jr
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Revision of 2 sets Venn Diagrams

Types of Venn Diagram


Disjoint Subset intersecting

2 sets shading

Intersection union A complement

A Only B Only union of A and B complement

Union of A complement and set B complement of the intersection complement of the union
Example:
U = {1, …, 15}
A = {5, 10 15}
B = { 1, 2, 5, 10}
A n B = {5, 10}
A’ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14}
B’ = {3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
A’ U B’ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12,13, 14, 15} = (A n B)’

Question 1

Solutions
a. 𝑛(𝐼) = 25 + 16 = 41
b. 𝑛(𝐿) = 16 + 30 = 46
c. 𝑛(𝐼 ∩ 𝐿) = 16
d. 𝑛(𝐼 ′ ∩ 𝐿′ ) = 𝑛(𝐼 ∪ 𝐿)′ = 9
e. 𝑛(𝐼 ∩ 𝐿′ ) = 25

IN GENERAL

+ + =
Recall
• If two events A and B are independent, then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Example:
Determine if events A and B are independent

P(A) x P(B) = 2/25 P(A) x P(B) = 2/20


P(A n B) = 2/25 P(A n B) = 1/25
A and B are independent A and B dependent

• If two events A and B are non-mutually exclusive, then


𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Example:
A and B are two independent events with P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.3.
a) Calculate the:
i. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
ii. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ′ ) A only
iii. 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′) B only
iv. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) Union
v. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ complement of union
vi. 𝑃(𝑆) Universal set

b) Draw a Venn diagram to represent the probabilities

Solution:
i. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
= 0.2 × 0.3
= 0.06
′)
ii. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.2 − 0.06
= 0.14

iii. 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′)


𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.3 − 0.06
= 0.24
iv. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.2 + 0.3 − 0.06
= 0.44

OR

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′)


= 0.14 + 0.06 + 0.24
= 0.44

v. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 1 − 0.44
= 0.56

vi. 𝑃(𝑆)
𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ′ ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′ ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′
= 0.14 + 0.06 + 0.24 + 0.44
=1

OR

𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′


= 0.44 + 0.56
=1

b) Venn Diagram U
A B

0.14 0.06
0.24

0.56
Conditional Probability
• If events A and B are dependent, then the conditional probability A given B is
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

Example

Solution:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 92 + 57 + 36 + 25
𝑛(𝑠) = 210 𝑛(𝐶 ) = 36 + 25 = 61
𝑛(𝐷) = 57 + 36 = 93 𝑛(𝐷 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 36
𝑛(𝐷 ∪𝐶)′ 𝑛(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷)
a. 𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐶)’ = b. 𝑃(𝐶|𝐷) =
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛(𝐷)
36
92 =
= 93
210
12
= 105
41 =
31

36
210
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) 93 36 12
Using the formula, we get: 𝑃(𝐶|𝐷) = = = 93 = 31
𝑃(𝐷) 210
• If events A and B are independent, then the conditional probability A given B is
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴)×𝑃(𝐵)
=
𝑃(𝐵)

= 𝑃(𝐴)

Example
A and B are two independent events with P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.3.
Calculate:
i. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
ii. 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

Solution:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
i. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = ii. 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐴)


= =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
0.2 × 0.3 0.3 × 0.2
= =
0.3 0.2
= 0.2 = 0.3

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