Problem :

Two cities 1 and 2 are connected by route A, and route B connects cities 2 and 3 as shown in the
figure. Let is denote the eastbound lanes as A1 and B1, and the westbound lanes as A2 and B2.

Suppose the probability is 95% that one of the two lanes in route A will NOT require major
resurfacing of the pavement for at least 2 years; the corresponding probability for a lane in route B is
only 85%.

a. Determine the probability that route A will require major resurfacing in the next 2 years. Do
the same for route B. Assume that if one lane of the route needs major resurfacing, the
chance that the other lane of the same route will also need resurfacing is 3 times its original
probability.
Answer:
P(Route A will require major surfacing) = 0.0925
P(Route B will require major surfacing) = 0.2325

b. Assuming that the needs for resurfacing in routes A and B are statistically independent,
what is the probability that the road between cities 1 and 3 will require major resurfacing in
two years?

Answer: P(route between cities 1 and 3 will require major resurfacing) = 0.302

Problem:

A country is subject to natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, and tornadoes. Suppose
earthquakes occur according to a Poisson process with a mean rate of 1 in 10 yr; tornado
occurrences are also Poisson distributed with a mean rate of 0.3 per year. There can be either one
or no flood each year; hence the occurrence of a flood each year follows a Bernoulli sequence, and
the mean return period of floods is 5 yr. Assume floods, earthquakes, and tornadoes can occur
independently.
A. If no hazards occur in a given year, it is referred to as a “good” year. What is the probability of
a “good” year?
B. What is the probability that 2 of the next 5 years will be good years?
C. What is the probability of only one incidence of natural hazard in a given year?
Answer:
A. 0.536
B. 0.287
C. 0.349
Problem:

The probability of a successful optical alignment in the assembly of an optical data storage product
is 0.8. Assume the trials are independent.
(a) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires exactly four trials?
(b) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at most four trials?
(c) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at least four trials?

Answer: (a) 0.0064 (b) 0.9984 (c) 0.008

Problem:

The thickness of a conductive coating in micrometers has a density function of 600x-2 for 100 m < x
< 120 m.

(a) Determine the mean and variance of the coating thickness.

Problem:

An article under review for Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health titled “Linking Particulate Matter
(PM10) and Childhood Asthma in Central Phoenix” used PM 10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm in
diameter) air quality data measured hourly from sensors in Phoenix, Arizona. The 24-hour (daily)
mean PM10 for a centrally located sensor was 50.9 g/m3 with a standard deviation of 25.0. Assume
that the daily mean of PM10 is normally distributed.

(a) What is the probability of a daily mean of PM10 greater than 100 g/m3?
(b) What is the probability of a daily mean of PM10 less than 25 g/m3?
(c) What daily mean of PM10 value is exceeded with probability 5%?

Answer: (a) 0.0248 (b) 0.1501 (c) 92.0213

Problem:

A high-volume printer produces minor print-quality errors on a test pattern of 1000 pages of text
according to a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.4 per page.
(a) Why are the number of errors on each page independent random variables?
(b) What is the mean number of pages with errors (one or more)?
(c) Approximate the probability that more than 350 pages contain errors (one or more).
Problem:

Hits to a high-volume Web site are assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of 10,000
per day. Approximate each of the following:
(a) The probability of more than 20,000 hits in a day
(b) The probability of less than 9900 hits in a day
(c) The value such that the probability that the number of hits in a day exceeds the value is 0.01
(d) Approximate the expected number of days in a year (365 days) that exceed 10,200 hits.

(e) Approximate the probability that over a year (365 days) more than 15 days each have more than
10,200 hits.

Answer:

a. 0
b. 0.156
c. 13300
d. 8.3 days/year
e. 0.0052

Problem:

The time between arrivals of taxis at a busy intersection is exponentially distributed with a mean of
10 minutes.
(a) What is the probability that you wait longer than one hour for a taxi?
(b) Suppose that you have already been waiting for one hour for a taxi. What is the probability that
one arrives within the next 10 minutes?
(c) Determine x such that the probability that you wait more than x minutes is 0.10.
(d) Determine x such that the probability that you wait less than x minutes is 0.90.
(e) Determine x such that the probability that you wait less than x minutes is 0.50.

Answer:

a. 0.0025
b. 0.6321
c. 23.03
d. 23.03
e. 6.93

Problem:
Calls to a telephone system follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of five calls per minute.
(a) What is the name applied to the distribution and parameter values of the time until the tenth
call?
(b) What is the mean time until the tenth call?
(c) What is the mean time between the ninth and tenth calls?
(d) What is the probability that exactly four calls occur within one minute?
(e) If 10 separate one-minute intervals are chosen, what is the probability that all intervals contain
more than two calls?

Answer:
(a) not provided
(b) 2
(c) 0.2 minute
(d) 0.1755
(e) 0.2643

Problem:

As a student drives to school, he encounters a traffic signal. This traffic signal stays green for 35
seconds, yellow for 5 seconds, and red for 60 seconds. Assume that the student goes to school
each weekday between 8:00 and 8:30 a.m. Let X1 be the number of times he encounters a green
light, X2 be the number of times he encounters a yellow light, and X3 be the number of times he
encounters a red light. If the student went to school for 20 days in the month of April, what is the
probability that the student passed by the traffic signal with 10 times green, 5 times yellow, and 5
times red?
Answer: