METODO CONGRUENCIAL MULTIPLICATIVO

Xo= a x Xn-1 (mod m)

Xo 17
a 11
m 23

Xn
n valor (mod m) Residuo #aleatorio
0 17
1 187 3 0.1304
2 33 10 0.4348
3 110 18 0.7826
4 198 14 0.6087
5 154 16 0.6957
6 176 15 0.6522
7 165 4 0.1739
8 44 21 0.9130
9 231 1 0.0435
10 11 11 0.4783
11 121 6 0.2609
12 66 20 0.8696
13 220 13 0.5652
14 143 5 0.2174
15 55 9 0.3913
16 99 7 0.3043
17 77 8 0.3478
18 88 19 0.8261
19 209 2 0.0870
20 22 22 0.9565
21 242 12 0.5217
22 132 17 0.7391
23 187 3 0.1304
METODO CONGRUENCIAL MIXTO
Xn = a * Xn-1 + C (mod m)

Xo 41
a 33
c 13
m 73

n Valor (mod m) Residuo #Aleatorio

0 41
1 1366 52 0.7123
2 1729 50 0.6849
3 1663 57 0.7808
4 1894 69 0.9452
5 2290 27 0.3699
6 904 28 0.3836
7 937 61 0.8356
8 2026 55 0.7534
9 1828 3 0.0411
10 112 39 0.5342
11 1300 59 0.8082
12 1960 62 0.8493
13 2059 15 0.2055
14 508 70 0.9589
15 2323 60 0.8219
16 1993 22 0.3014
17 739 9 0.1233
18 310 18 0.2466
19 607 23 0.3151
20 772 42 0.5753
21 1399 12 0.1644
22 409 44 0.6027
23 1465 5 0.0685
24 178 32 0.4384
25 1069 47 0.6438
26 1564 31 0.4247
27 1036 14 0.1918
28 475 37 0.5068
29 1234 66 0.9041
30 2191 1 0.0137
31 46 46 0.6301
32 1531 71 0.9726
33 2356 20 0.2740
34 673 16 0.2192
35 541 30 0.4110
36 1003 54 0.7397
37 1795 43 0.5890
38 1432 45 0.6164
39 1498 38 0.5205
40 1267 26 0.3562
41 871 68 0.9315
42 2257 67 0.9178
43 2224 34 0.4658
44 1135 40 0.5479
45 1333 19 0.2603
46 640 56 0.7671
47 1861 36 0.4932
48 1201 33 0.4521
49 1102 7 0.0959
50 244 25 0.3425
51 838 35 0.4795
52 1168 0 0.0000
53 13 13 0.1781
54 442 4 0.0548
55 145 72 0.9863
56 2389 53 0.7260
57 1762 10 0.1370
58 343 51 0.6986
59 1696 17 0.2329
60 574 63 0.8630
61 2092 48 0.6575
62 1597 64 0.8767
63 2125 8 0.1096
64 277 58 0.7945
65 1927 29 0.3973
66 970 21 0.2877
67 706 49 0.6712
68 1630 24 0.3288
69 805 2 0.0274
70 79 6 0.0822
71 211 65 0.8904
72 2158 41 0.5616
73 1366 52 0.7123
GENERACION DE VARIABLES ALEATORIAS

VARIABLES ALEATORIAS UNIFORMES

# aleatorio VARIABLE minimo a 7
1 0.89278193 9.678 maximo b 10
2 0.14639759 7.439
3 0.84537983 9.536
4 0.13721629 7.412
5 0.00631908 7.019
6 0.36097618 8.083
7 0.53823201 8.615
8 0.62909706 8.887
9 0.9711375 9.913
10 0.5504159 8.651
11 0.72485295 9.175
12 0.09574943 7.287
13 0.12273097 7.368
14 0.75373309 9.261
15 0.12831596 7.385
16 0.09062588 7.272
17 0.03186359 7.096
18 0.55632735 8.669
19 0.76240637 9.287
20 0.82767353 9.483
21 0.60589887 8.818
22 0.42066507 8.262
23 0.82119357 9.464
24 0.35455451 8.064
25 0.33904418 8.017
26 0.7486055 9.246
27 0.18553513 7.557
28 0.57712787 8.731
29 0.07508447 7.225
30 0.50334899 8.510
31 0.95109869 9.853
32 0.2855457 7.857
33 0.7054892 9.116
34 0.37722956 8.132
35 0.31948388 7.958
36 0.7268923 9.181
37 0.21977761 7.659
38 0.17339467 7.520
39 0.74296839 9.229
40 0.54977478 8.649
41 0.06150233 7.185
42 0.68543257 9.056
43 0.47783779 8.434
44 0.79835741 9.395
45 0.91268551 9.738
46 0.65200071 8.956
47 0.26927575 7.808
48 0.30454962 7.914
49 0.84396714 9.532
50 0.02887731 7.087
promedio 8.433
minimo 7.019
maximo 9.913
GENERACION DE VARIABLES ALEATORIOS

VARIABLES ALEATORIAS EXPONENCIALES

MEDIA 8
#aleatorio variable
1 0.62119534 3.80887746
2 0.52157415 5.20723069
3 0.74626154 2.34143319
4 0.75850331 2.2112649
5 0.35611765 8.25995305
6 0.72124098 2.61425575
7 0.13328487 16.1221324
8 0.12417192 16.6887058
9 0.45837355 6.2405666
10 0.88443936 0.98241057
11 0.19062758 13.2594689
12 0.76866697 2.10477978
13 0.49195891 5.67488073
14 0.69960806 2.85788014
15 0.16734769 14.3014532
16 0.34628184 8.4840181
17 0.7455161 2.34942842
18 0.58737976 4.25666968
19 0.63824074 3.5923179
20 0.09884423 18.5136809
21 0.19858188 12.9324301
22 0.37385557 7.8710858
23 0.14024147 15.7151164
24 0.55170556 4.75792621
25 0.58297817 4.31684425
26 0.59673692 4.13023152
27 0.21581055 12.2668347
28 0.33764102 8.68617611
29 0.92506564 0.62312469
30 0.10991758 17.6641958
31 0.90803248 0.77180106
32 0.63942675 3.57746562
33 0.49880712 5.5642863
34 0.60206759 4.05908455
35 0.33639664 8.71571471
36 0.835537 1.43744514
37 0.29856183 9.6702259
38 0.31282743 9.29682857
39 0.93188219 0.564391
40 0.41295884 7.0752588
41 0.43054459 6.7416351
42 0.78368862 1.94994809
43 0.07885445 20.3212121
44 0.71585176 2.67425741
45 0.35075593 8.38131713
46 0.76979096 2.0930903
47 0.52806007 5.10836183
48 0.15117087 15.114756
49 0.51132445 5.36600763
50 0.8556631 1.24702839
PROMEDIO 6.97130979
GENERACION DE VARIABLES ALEATORIAS

VARIABLES ALEATORIAS NORMALES

MEDIA 8
DESV. ES 1

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
VARIABLE
1 0.322 0.243 0.335 0.982 0.876 0.754 0.650 0.797 0.802 0.091
2 0.182 0.626 0.232 0.662 0.900 0.323 0.896 0.728 0.500 0.342
3 0.773 0.576 0.461 0.537 0.664 0.649 0.992 0.361 0.923 0.736
4 0.663 0.397 0.839 0.239 0.934 0.005 0.810 0.236 0.084 0.670
5 0.143 0.466 0.248 0.260 0.581 0.354 0.922 0.858 0.048 0.071
6 0.051 0.398 0.706 0.000 0.204 0.604 0.933 0.389 0.840 0.097
7 0.479 0.208 0.132 0.033 0.703 0.091 0.739 0.169 0.786 0.695
8 0.528 0.871 0.429 0.169 0.316 0.544 0.668 0.377 0.508 0.600
9 0.356 0.651 0.096 0.476 0.160 0.056 0.083 0.943 0.330 0.182
10 0.720 0.469 0.223 0.108 0.803 0.155 0.951 0.525 0.719 0.454
11 0.319 0.245 0.245 0.753 0.059 0.174 0.910 0.766 0.803 0.755
12 0.513 0.986 0.605 0.200 0.888 0.569 0.416 0.790 0.362 0.013
13 0.712 0.010 0.356 0.922 0.271 0.378 0.639 0.022 0.823 0.211
14 0.786 0.811 0.133 0.696 0.157 0.475 0.453 0.626 0.694 0.252
15 0.237 0.549 0.545 0.826 0.906 0.964 0.582 0.377 0.616 0.407
16 0.840 0.719 0.113 0.553 0.160 0.216 0.414 0.397 0.737 0.509
17 0.703 0.376 0.674 0.390 0.590 0.064 0.865 0.275 0.445 0.073
18 0.395 0.607 0.594 0.106 0.914 0.913 0.151 0.262 0.773 0.264
19 0.327 0.640 0.881 0.676 0.898 0.624 0.884 0.793 0.724 0.356
20 0.535 0.231 0.487 0.450 0.882 0.543 0.380 0.678 0.627 0.240
21 0.317 0.872 0.721 0.148 0.987 0.614 0.722 0.161 0.158 0.663
22 0.148 0.031 0.228 0.711 0.116 0.767 0.788 0.911 0.865 0.633
23 0.549 0.427 0.802 0.516 0.165 0.926 0.636 0.353 0.060 0.993
24 0.620 0.011 0.155 0.833 0.285 0.198 0.455 0.078 0.260 0.798
25 0.255 0.614 0.284 0.910 0.434 0.507 0.071 0.332 0.909 0.669
26 0.617 0.491 0.555 0.393 0.316 0.492 0.697 0.286 0.107 0.769
27 0.185 0.409 0.107 0.206 0.572 0.937 0.826 0.767 0.785 0.952
28 0.783 0.467 0.857 0.285 0.538 0.223 0.218 0.580 0.553 0.934
29 0.418 0.328 0.181 0.644 0.478 0.288 0.041 0.529 0.233 0.364
30 0.406 0.142 0.688 0.246 0.879 0.684 0.904 0.929 0.948 0.919
31 0.490 0.545 0.501 0.436 0.288 0.314 0.679 0.516 0.276 0.722
32 0.659 0.945 0.066 0.270 0.336 0.256 0.951 0.915 0.044 0.885
33 0.760 0.162 0.452 0.345 0.278 0.795 0.746 0.062 0.456 0.785
34 0.984 0.298 0.547 0.280 0.149 0.281 0.873 0.221 0.097 0.700
35 0.887 0.910 0.035 0.335 0.135 0.588 0.612 0.733 0.610 0.265
36 0.268 0.694 0.156 0.379 0.655 0.641 0.624 0.949 0.379 0.178
37 0.488 0.942 0.324 0.479 0.737 0.432 0.406 0.383 0.592 0.061
38 0.294 0.887 0.867 0.282 0.881 0.694 0.040 0.549 0.956 0.195
39 0.210 0.691 0.831 0.682 0.280 0.586 0.740 0.708 0.711 0.568
40 0.199 0.244 0.092 0.717 0.878 0.045 0.334 0.826 0.450 0.444
41 0.714 0.013 0.226 0.484 0.735 0.824 0.083 0.196 0.148 0.579
42 0.788 0.860 0.770 0.557 0.265 0.287 0.837 0.799 0.754 0.751
43 0.087 0.633 0.440 0.552 0.623 0.476 0.288 0.757 0.952 0.905
44 0.597 0.621 0.518 0.811 0.429 0.611 0.485 0.757 0.384 0.633
45 0.823 0.283 0.572 0.767 0.808 0.579 0.201 0.676 0.092 0.800
46 0.880 0.989 0.446 0.730 0.534 0.996 0.627 0.986 0.743 0.979
47 0.770 0.247 0.456 0.017 0.417 0.681 0.806 0.555 0.205 0.602
48 0.523 0.754 0.349 0.474 0.531 0.884 0.100 0.974 0.069 0.809
49 0.484 0.841 0.400 0.513 0.948 0.161 0.394 0.678 0.792 0.911
50 0.282 0.875 0.094 0.886 0.742 0.774 0.185 0.773 0.946 0.864
R11 R12 VARIABLE
SUMA NORMAL
0.860 0.418 7.130 9.130
0.277 0.783 6.451 8.451
0.857 0.467 7.996 9.996
0.736 0.157 5.770 7.770
0.513 0.690 5.154 7.154
0.396 0.739 5.358 7.358
0.445 0.229 4.710 6.710
0.841 0.163 6.014 8.014
0.802 0.748 4.883 6.883
0.749 0.466 6.342 8.342
0.519 0.704 6.250 8.250
0.636 0.323 6.301 8.301
0.627 0.489 5.459 7.459
0.303 0.051 5.438 7.438
0.676 0.289 6.974 8.974
0.397 0.979 6.035 8.035
0.788 0.104 5.348 7.348
0.795 0.460 6.234 8.234
0.308 0.481 7.592 9.592
0.694 0.354 6.102 8.102
0.052 0.499 5.916 7.916
0.890 0.847 6.936 8.936
0.390 0.113 5.931 7.931
0.954 0.061 4.709 6.709
0.439 0.711 6.136 8.136
0.323 0.776 5.822 7.822
0.079 0.937 6.762 8.762
0.371 0.170 5.979 7.979
0.853 0.100 4.457 6.457
0.180 0.273 7.198 9.198
0.595 0.332 5.694 7.694
0.277 0.949 6.553 8.553
0.877 0.391 6.110 8.110
0.377 0.400 5.208 7.208
0.939 0.093 6.143 8.143
0.358 0.166 5.448 7.448
0.393 0.336 5.572 7.572
0.709 0.290 6.644 8.644
0.793 0.495 7.297 9.297
0.365 0.606 5.203 7.203
0.437 0.092 4.532 6.532
0.903 0.201 7.772 9.772
0.800 0.314 6.827 8.827
0.673 0.525 7.044 9.044
0.727 0.423 6.753 8.753
0.841 0.781 9.535 11.535
0.943 0.460 6.159 8.159
0.321 0.315 6.102 8.102
0.432 0.879 7.433 9.433
0.874 0.248 7.542 9.542

MEDIA 8.219
DESV.EST 0.98865558
LLEGADA DE AUTOS A UN LAVADO

MEDIA 20

V.A. EXPONENCIAL
ALEATORIO TIEMPO ENTRE LLEGADAS TIEMPO DE LLEGADA
1 0.4948 14.07 14.07
2 0.6554 8.45 22.52
3 0.1652 36.01 58.53
4 0.8482 3.29 61.82
5 0.3739 19.67 81.50
6 0.8518 3.21 84.70
7 0.9062 1.97 86.67
8 0.5571 11.70 98.38
9 0.9898 0.20 98.58
10 0.5993 10.24 108.82
11 0.1681 35.66 144.48
12 0.4284 16.96 161.44
13 0.1969 32.50 193.94
14 0.3314 22.09 216.02
15 0.6115 9.84 225.86
16 0.1141 43.41 269.27
17 0.7961 4.56 273.83
18 0.5816 10.84 284.67
19 0.5142 13.30 297.97
20 0.6423 8.85 306.83
21 0.7034 7.04 313.86
22 0.4710 15.06 328.92
23 0.0122 88.11 417.03
24 0.4951 14.06 431.09
25 0.7164 6.67 437.76
26 0.4360 16.60 454.36
27 0.7426 5.95 460.32
28 0.9153 1.77 462.09
29 0.4590 15.57 477.66
30 0.4561 15.70 493.36
31 0.0837 49.60 542.96
32 0.3231 22.59 565.55
33 0.9151 1.77 567.33
34 0.9840 0.32 567.65
35 0.6804 7.70 575.35
36 0.2704 26.15 601.51
37 0.4440 16.24 617.75
38 0.4646 15.33 633.08
39 0.4304 16.86 649.94
40 0.1622 36.38 686.32
41 0.4099 17.84 704.16
42 0.8071 4.29 708.45
43 0.2589 27.02 735.47
44 0.2259 29.75 765.23
45 0.7555 5.61 770.83
46 0.8054 4.33 775.16
47 0.2778 25.61 800.78
48 0.9404 1.23 802.00
49 0.9143 1.79 803.80
50 0.1702 35.41 839.21
SIMULAR LA TEMPERATURA DE UN HORNO

UNIFORME
MINIMO 150
MAXIMO 180

V.A. UNIFORME V.A. UNIFORME

DIA ALEATORIO TEMPERATURA HORNO TEMPERATURA HORNO
1 0.6895 170.69 177
2 0.5410 166.23 162
3 0.6437 169.31 177
4 0.3553 160.66 154
5 0.7518 172.56 179
6 0.2783 158.35 177
7 0.8657 175.97 168
8 0.4186 162.56 156
9 0.3495 160.49 153
10 0.8933 176.80 180
11 0.7813 173.44 152
12 0.6157 168.47 174
13 0.0446 151.34 166
14 0.4057 162.17 171
15 0.3870 161.61 156
16 0.7780 173.34 153
17 0.3207 159.62 176
18 0.9829 179.49 163
19 0.3239 159.72 173
20 0.9223 177.67 158
21 0.5350 166.05 178
22 0.6750 170.25 162
23 0.6696 170.09 179
24 0.4033 162.10 155
25 0.9109 177.33 161
26 0.2397 157.19 153
27 0.0966 152.90 178
28 0.2763 158.29 154
29 0.1194 153.58 175
30 0.2954 158.86 158
31 0.0520 151.56 179
32 0.0208 150.62 159
33 0.5858 167.57 170
34 0.3555 160.66 159
35 0.4277 162.83 158
36 0.0014 150.04 178
37 0.9832 179.50 170
38 0.6612 169.83 167
39 0.8587 175.76 161
40 0.6583 169.75 169
41 0.3702 161.11 151
42 0.8208 174.62 165
43 0.0618 151.85 180
44 0.2209 156.63 180
45 0.7883 173.65 174
46 0.0722 152.17 163
47 0.9646 178.94 173
48 0.9496 178.49 154
49 0.4087 162.26 164
50 0.4227 162.68 152
MEDIA 165.15 166.08
VARIABLES ALEATORIAS NORMALES

MEDIA 20
DESV.EST. 0.8

VARIABLE V.A NORMAL

1 20.52
2 19.63
3 20.00
4 21.16
5 20.99
6 20.15
7 18.78
8 19.97
9 18.76
10 21.35
11 21.38
12 20.78
13 21.60
14 21.27
15 20.50
16 20.51
17 20.00
18 20.88
19 17.85
20 20.07
21 19.39
22 20.89
23 19.34
24 19.47
25 20.88
26 19.24
27 18.97
28 21.68
29 18.82
30 20.23
31 17.80
32 20.01
33 19.20
34 19.85
35 18.53
36 21.06
37 20.53
38 21.47
39 19.23
40 20.07
41 18.80
42 20.24
43 20.52
44 20.07
45 21.81
46 21.47
47 19.26
48 18.72
49 21.92
50 20.19
SIMULACION MONTECARLO

LANZAMIENTO DE DADO LEGAL

NUMERO FRECUENCIA PROBABILIDAD PROBABILIDAD LIMITE LIMITE

EVENTO ACUMULADA INFERIOR SUPERIOR
1 1 0.1667 0.1667 0 0.1667
2 1 0.1667 0.3333 0.1667 0.3333
3 1 0.1667 0.5000 0.3333 0.5000
4 1 0.1667 0.6667 0.5000 0.6667
5 1 0.1667 0.8333 0.6667 0.8333
6 1 0.1667 1.0000 0.8333 1.0000
6 1.0000
VALOR ESPERADO 3.5000

FUNCION DE DENSIDAD FUNCIONDE DENSIDAD ACUMULADA

0.1800 f(X)
0.1600 1.2000

0.1400 1.0000
0.1200 0.8000
0.1000
0.6000
0.0800
0.4000
0.0600
0.2000
0.0400
0.0000
0.0200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EVENTO ri LANZAMIENTO DADO NUMERO PROMEDIO

1 0.6472 4 4
2 0.2760 2 3.0000
3 0.8886 6 4.0000
4 0.3874 3 3.7500
5 0.7234 5 4.0000
6 0.5344 4 4.0000
7 0.2997 2 3.7143
8 0.2414 2 3.5000
 9 0.3393 3 3.4444
10 0.3370 3 3.4000
11 0.4110 3 3.3636
12 0.3070 2 3.2500
13 0.7386 5 3.3846
14 0.5696 4 3.4286
15 0.8104 5 3.5333
16 0.2121 2 3.4375
17 0.2952 2 3.3529
18 0.5535 4 3.3889
19 0.9608 6 3.5263
20 0.1076 1 3.4000
21 0.8427 6 3.5238
22 0.1952 2 3.4545
23 0.6156 4 3.4783
24 0.9155 6 3.5833
25 0.9962 6 3.6800
26 0.5012 4 3.6923
27 0.3594 3 3.6667
28 0.2315 2 3.6071
29 0.3900 3 3.5862
30 0.6928 5 3.6333
31 0.7432 5 3.6774
32 0.7883 5 3.7188
33 0.8518 6 3.7879
34 0.2744 2 3.7353
35 0.2066 2 3.6857
36 0.7164 5 3.7222
37 0.7736 5 3.7568
38 0.2688 2 3.7105
39 0.6584 4 3.7179
40 0.2073 2 3.6750
41 0.0194 1 3.6098
42 0.5648 4 3.6190
43 0.7667 5 3.6512
44 0.4953 3 3.6364
45 0.6720 5 3.6667
46 0.7072 5 3.6957
47 0.3847 3 3.6809
48 0.0286 1 3.6250
49 0.6695 5 3.6531
50 0.7804 5 3.6800
51 0.6460 4 3.6863
52 0.4435 3 3.6731
53 0.0843 1 3.6226
54 0.6896 5 3.6481
55 0.1695 2 3.6182
56 0.1597 1 3.5714
57 0.8284 5 3.5965
58 0.5117 4 3.6034
59 0.1559 1 3.5593
60 0.0357 1 3.5167
61 0.9415 6 3.5574
62 0.8850 6 3.5968
63 0.1559 1 3.5556
64 0.6420 4 3.5625
65 0.4053 3 3.5538
66 0.2233 2 3.5303
67 0.3368 3 3.5224
68 0.6299 4 3.5294
69 0.4687 3 3.5217
70 0.4824 3 3.5143
71 0.6716 5 3.5352
72 0.1546 1 3.5000
73 0.6502 4 3.5068
74 0.9443 6 3.5405
75 0.3558 3 3.5333
76 0.8537 6 3.5658
77 0.0277 1 3.5325
78 0.7917 5 3.5513
79 0.0160 1 3.5190
80 0.9079 6 3.5500
81 0.7928 5 3.5679
82 0.5815 4 3.5732
83 0.3033 2 3.5542
84 0.2469 2 3.5357
85 0.4050 3 3.5294
86 0.1014 1 3.5000
87 0.7405 5 3.5172
88 0.8271 5 3.5341
89 0.7924 5 3.5506
90 0.7415 5 3.5667
91 0.2074 2 3.5495
92 0.7088 5 3.5652
93 0.0885 1 3.5376
94 0.3212 2 3.5213
95 0.8989 6 3.5474
96 0.8214 5 3.5625
97 0.4983 3 3.5567
98 0.7553 5 3.5714
 99 0.8395 6 3.5960
100 0.5785 4 3.6000
101 0.8417 6 3.6238
102 0.2206 2 3.6078
103 0.2265 2 3.5922
104 0.5071 4 3.5962
105 0.7358 5 3.6095
106 0.3344 3 3.6038
107 0.7907 5 3.6168
108 0.2955 2 3.6019
109 0.3869 3 3.5963
110 0.2616 2 3.5818
111 0.5024 4 3.5856
112 0.0588 1 3.5625
113 0.5923 4 3.5664
114 0.9147 6 3.5877
115 0.8603 6 3.6087
116 0.9137 6 3.6293
117 0.8155 5 3.6410
118 0.4654 3 3.6356
119 0.4398 3 3.6303
120 0.7464 5 3.6417
121 0.1356 1 3.6198
122 0.9862 6 3.6393
123 0.7616 5 3.6504
124 0.6107 4 3.6532
125 0.9998 6 3.6720
126 0.8001 5 3.6825
127 0.9209 6 3.7008
128 0.0099 1 3.6797
129 0.8703 6 3.6977
130 0.3032 2 3.6846
131 0.6566 4 3.6870
132 0.1248 1 3.6667
133 0.8810 6 3.6842
134 0.3818 3 3.6791
135 0.3380 3 3.6741
136 0.8930 6 3.6912
137 0.6474 4 3.6934
138 0.9566 6 3.7101
139 0.7966 5 3.7194
140 0.4078 3 3.7143
141 0.0856 1 3.6950
142 0.1400 1 3.6761
143 0.0327 1 3.6573
144 0.6662 4 3.6597
145 0.2185 2 3.6483
146 0.0085 1 3.6301
147 0.1756 2 3.6190
148 0.7289 5 3.6284
149 0.3802 3 3.6242
150 0.5170 4 3.6267
151 0.2225 2 3.6159
152 0.3918 3 3.6118
153 0.0417 1 3.5948
154 0.3499 3 3.5909
155 0.5104 4 3.5935
156 0.2870 2 3.5833
157 0.5059 4 3.5860
158 0.8439 6 3.6013
159 0.9101 6 3.6164
160 0.3850 3 3.6125
161 0.7461 5 3.6211
162 0.5258 4 3.6235
163 0.3795 3 3.6196
164 0.7416 5 3.6280
165 0.3976 3 3.6242
166 0.3604 3 3.6205
167 0.1245 1 3.6048
168 0.6107 4 3.6071
169 0.3840 3 3.6036
170 0.1939 2 3.5941
171 0.0929 1 3.5789
172 0.3389 3 3.5756
173 0.5422 4 3.5780
174 0.9832 6 3.5920
175 0.7943 5 3.6000
176 0.5050 4 3.6023
177 0.9872 6 3.6158
178 0.8818 6 3.6292
179 0.7128 5 3.6369
180 0.2196 2 3.6278
181 0.6068 4 3.6298
182 0.4795 3 3.6264
183 0.8739 6 3.6393
184 0.2822 2 3.6304
185 0.1806 2 3.6216 4.5
186 0.3945 3 3.6183 4
187 0.7569 5 3.6257 3.5
188 0.6436 4 3.6277
3
2.5
2
1.5
 4.5
4
3.5
3
189 0.3352 3 3.6243
2.5
190 0.5897 4 3.6263
191 0.3425 3 3.6230 2
192 0.0934 1 3.6094 1.5
193 0.0679 1 3.5959 1
194 0.4030 3 3.5928
0.5
195 0.1134 1 3.5795
0
196 0.6319 4 3.5816 0 50 1
197 0.8599 6 3.5939
198 0.4333 3 3.5909
199 0.9274 6 3.6030
200 0.6186 4 3.6050
ENSIDAD ACUMULADA
f(X)

3 4 5 6 7
 Chart Title
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
SIMULACION MONTECARLO

DEMANDA DE PRODUCTOS

DEMANDA FRECUENCIA PROBABILIDAD PROBABILIDAD LIMITE LIMITE

EVENTO ACUMULADA INFERIOR SUPERIOR
60 20 0.1923 0.1923 0 0.1923
65 24 0.2308 0.4231 0.1923 0.4231
70 16 0.1538 0.5769 0.4231 0.5769
75 28 0.2692 0.8462 0.5769 0.8462
80 10 0.0962 0.9423 0.8462 0.9423
85 6 0.0577 1.0000 0.9423 1.0000
104 1.0000
VALOR ESPERADO 70.0962

FUNCION DE DENSIDAD FUNCIONDE DENSIDAD

LADA f(X)
0.3000
1.2000
0.2500 1.0000

0.2000 0.8000

0.6000
0.1500
0.4000
0.1000 0.2000

0.0500 0.0000
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

0.0000
60 62.5 65 67.5 70 72.5 75 77.5 80 82.5 85

SEMANA ri LANZAMIENTO DADO NUMERO PROMEDIO

1 0.4993 70 70
2 0.6206 75 72.5000
3 0.9022 80 75.0000
4 0.5455 70 73.7500
5 0.8758 80 75.0000
6 0.3785 65 73.3333
7 0.3939 65 72.1429
8 0.3556 65 71.2500
 9 0.2768 65 70.5556
10 0.9471 85 72.0000
11 0.9080 80 72.7273
12 0.2243 65 72.0833
13 0.5838 75 72.3077
14 0.4221 65 71.7857
15 0.5364 70 71.6667
16 0.5034 70 71.5625
17 0.0530 60 70.8824
18 0.3521 65 70.5556
19 0.4186 65 70.2632
20 0.0845 60 69.7500
21 0.3969 65 69.5238
22 0.6272 75 69.7727
23 0.6013 75 70.0000
24 0.3024 65 69.7917
25 0.0618 60 69.4000
26 0.1666 60 69.0385
27 0.5679 70 69.0741
28 0.9136 80 69.4643
29 0.1758 60 69.1379
30 0.5301 70 69.1667
31 0.1617 60 68.8710
32 0.8906 80 69.2188
33 0.4071 65 69.0909
34 0.6529 75 69.2647
35 0.1090 60 69.0000
36 0.8000 75 69.1667
37 0.6969 75 69.3243
38 0.5905 75 69.4737
39 0.4350 70 69.4872
40 0.3907 65 69.3750
41 0.1383 60 69.1463
42 0.2618 65 69.0476
43 0.0380 60 68.8372
44 0.5913 75 68.9773
45 0.4087 65 68.8889
46 0.7553 75 69.0217
47 0.5497 70 69.0426
48 0.2113 65 68.9583
49 0.2797 65 68.8776
50 0.1259 60 68.7000
51 0.3836 65 68.6275
52 0.4692 70 68.6538
53 0.5425 70 68.6792
54 0.5109 70 68.7037
55 0.0393 60 68.5455
56 0.9050 80 68.7500
57 0.2102 65 68.6842
58 0.6124 75 68.7931
59 0.9274 80 68.9831
60 0.7995 75 69.0833
61 0.9452 85 69.3443
62 0.1479 60 69.1935
63 0.4808 70 69.2063
64 0.7642 75 69.2969
65 0.9732 85 69.5385
66 0.0760 60 69.3939
67 0.8394 75 69.4776
68 0.1857 60 69.3382
69 0.6772 75 69.4203
70 0.9261 80 69.5714
71 0.7555 75 69.6479
72 0.9989 85 69.8611
73 0.4654 70 69.8630
74 0.9878 85 70.0676
75 0.7742 75 70.1333
76 0.1071 60 70.0000
77 0.4385 70 70.0000
78 0.2022 65 69.9359
79 0.1181 60 69.8101
80 0.0640 60 69.6875
81 0.7514 75 69.7531
82 0.2078 65 69.6951
83 0.5683 70 69.6988
84 0.6782 75 69.7619
85 0.6560 75 69.8235
86 0.1461 60 69.7093
87 0.1579 60 69.5977
88 0.5361 70 69.6023
89 0.5210 70 69.6067
90 0.6308 75 69.6667
91 0.9878 85 69.8352
92 0.6668 75 69.8913
93 0.6540 75 69.9462
94 0.7396 75 70.0000
95 0.8471 80 70.1053
96 0.9726 85 70.2604
97 0.8346 75 70.3093
98 0.5085 70 70.3061
 99 0.9945 85 70.4545
100 0.6870 75 70.5000
101 0.9473 85 70.6436
102 0.2034 65 70.5882
103 0.7434 75 70.6311
104 0.1853 60 70.5288
105 0.7266 75 70.5714
106 0.9512 85 70.7075
107 0.7420 75 70.7477
108 0.6219 75 70.7870
109 0.4228 65 70.7339
110 0.0605 60 70.6364
111 0.4654 70 70.6306
112 0.0110 60 70.5357
113 0.6358 75 70.5752
114 0.5412 70 70.5702
115 0.3273 65 70.5217
116 0.3261 65 70.4741
117 0.3502 65 70.4274
118 0.2459 65 70.3814
119 0.6422 75 70.4202
120 0.2834 65 70.3750
121 0.0579 60 70.2893
122 0.4774 70 70.2869
123 0.4639 70 70.2846
124 0.2026 65 70.2419
125 0.3313 65 70.2000
126 0.0379 60 70.1190
127 0.0873 60 70.0394
128 0.5626 70 70.0391
129 0.9685 85 70.1550
130 0.7671 75 70.1923
131 0.9849 85 70.3053
132 0.4913 70 70.3030
133 0.8869 80 70.3759
134 0.0316 60 70.2985
135 0.5928 75 70.3333
136 0.5908 75 70.3676
137 0.3285 65 70.3285
138 0.6510 75 70.3623
139 0.2000 65 70.3237
140 0.0871 60 70.2500
141 0.7677 75 70.2837
142 0.1509 60 70.2113
143 0.9851 85 70.3147
144 0.6016 75 70.3472
145 0.0081 60 70.2759
146 0.6321 75 70.3082
147 0.0572 60 70.2381
148 0.2415 65 70.2027
149 0.1644 60 70.1342
150 0.2372 65 70.1000
151 0.5996 75 70.1325
152 0.5056 70 70.1316
153 0.0667 60 70.0654
154 0.9099 80 70.1299
155 0.5524 70 70.1290
156 0.3516 65 70.0962
157 0.3010 65 70.0637
158 0.6871 75 70.0949
159 0.3743 65 70.0629
160 0.0752 60 70.0000
161 0.5633 70 70.0000
162 0.4105 65 69.9691
163 0.3804 65 69.9387
164 0.5557 70 69.9390
165 0.8661 80 70.0000
166 0.7562 75 70.0301
167 0.7892 75 70.0599
168 0.6401 75 70.0893
169 0.3868 65 70.0592
170 0.2690 65 70.0294
171 0.2032 65 70.0000
172 0.4145 65 69.9709
173 0.4723 70 69.9711
174 0.3217 65 69.9425
175 0.7456 75 69.9714
176 0.7192 75 70.0000
177 0.1142 60 69.9435
178 0.0067 60 69.8876
179 0.4753 70 69.8883
180 0.0525 60 69.8333
181 0.8604 80 69.8895
182 0.2166 65 69.8626
183 0.0302 60 69.8087
184 0.4383 70 69.8098
185 0.5131 70 69.8108 76
186 0.8422 75 69.8387
187 0.2902 65 69.8128 74

188 0.3449 65 69.7872

72

70

68
 76

74

72
189 0.5137 70 69.7884
190 0.4821 70 69.7895 70
191 0.1648 60 69.7382
192 0.5343 70 69.7396 68
193 0.5529 70 69.7409
194 0.4736 70 69.7423 66
195 0.3835 65 69.7179
64
196 0.5536 70 69.7194 0 50 1
197 0.2461 65 69.6954
198 0.4490 70 69.6970
199 0.6551 75 69.7236
200 0.8310 75 69.7500
 FUNCIONDE DENSIDAD ACUMU-
LADA f(X)
00

00

00

00

00

00

00
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
 Chart Title
76

74

72

70

68
76

74

72

70

68

66

64
0 50 100 150 200 250
SIMULACION MONTECARLO

DEMANDA DE LLANTAS

DEMANDA FRECUENCIA PROBABILIDAD PROBABILIDAD LIMITE LIMITE

EVENTO ACUMULADA INFERIOR SUPERIOR
0 2 0.0147 0.0147 0 0.0147
1 53 0.3897 0.4044 0.0147 0.4044
2 49 0.3603 0.7647 0.4044 0.7647
3 7 0.0515 0.8162 0.7647 0.8162
4 25 0.1838 1.0000 0.8162 1.0000
0 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
136 1.0000
VALOR ESPERADO 2.0000

FUNCION DE DENSIDAD FUNCIONDE DENSIDAD

LADA f(X)
0.4500
1.2000
0.4000
1.0000
0.3500

0.3000 0.8000

0.2500 0.6000

0.2000 0.4000
0.1500 0.2000
0.1000
0.0000
0 1 2 3
0.0500

0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5

SEMANA ri LANZAMIENTO DADO NUMERO PROMEDIO

1 0.7962 3 3
2 0.9731 4 3.5000
3 0.2777 1 2.6667
4 0.9443 4 3.0000
5 0.6123 2 2.8000
6 0.8724 4 3.0000
7 0.1266 1 2.7143
8 0.1373 1 2.5000
 9 0.0142 0 2.2222
10 0.1660 1 2.1000
11 0.5131 2 2.0909
12 0.4816 2 2.0833
13 0.3545 1 2.0000
14 0.0194 1 1.9286
15 0.5464 2 1.9333
16 0.2560 1 1.8750
17 0.4038 1 1.8235
18 0.8513 4 1.9444
19 0.2490 1 1.8947
20 0.5078 2 1.9000
21 0.4011 1 1.8571
22 0.2660 1 1.8182
23 0.8478 4 1.9130
24 0.6564 2 1.9167
25 0.6082 2 1.9200
26 0.1182 1 1.8846
27 0.5199 2 1.8889
28 0.8480 4 1.9643
29 0.0774 1 1.9310
30 0.4163 2 1.9333
31 0.3996 1 1.9032
32 0.4074 2 1.9063
33 0.3498 1 1.8788
34 0.5411 2 1.8824
35 0.3063 1 1.8571
36 0.9223 4 1.9167
37 0.8349 4 1.9730
38 0.5317 2 1.9737
39 0.5981 2 1.9744
40 0.0161 1 1.9500
41 0.6319 2 1.9512
42 0.4440 2 1.9524
43 0.4956 2 1.9535
44 0.8553 4 2.0000
45 0.5848 2 2.0000
46 0.7740 3 2.0217
47 0.2106 1 2.0000
48 0.7646 2 2.0000
49 0.8972 4 2.0408
50 0.6064 2 2.0400
51 0.9417 4 2.0784
52 0.3400 1 2.0577
53 0.7988 3 2.0755
54 0.7346 2 2.0741
55 0.9943 4 2.1091
56 0.0088 0 2.0714
57 0.9163 4 2.1053
58 0.0810 1 2.0862
59 0.3763 1 2.0678
60 0.4757 2 2.0667
61 0.5311 2 2.0656
62 0.1662 1 2.0484
63 0.1860 1 2.0317
64 0.6202 2 2.0313
65 0.5311 2 2.0308
66 0.1503 1 2.0152
67 0.1681 1 2.0000
68 0.9817 4 2.0294
69 0.4477 2 2.0290
70 0.4953 2 2.0286
71 0.9024 4 2.0563
72 0.7746 3 2.0694
73 0.6360 2 2.0685
74 0.5615 2 2.0676
75 0.2038 1 2.0533
76 0.5760 2 2.0526
77 0.4532 2 2.0519
78 0.5626 2 2.0513
79 0.5435 2 2.0506
80 0.7735 3 2.0625
81 0.9958 4 2.0864
82 0.6942 2 2.0854
83 0.6017 2 2.0843
84 0.6870 2 2.0833
85 0.4908 2 2.0824
86 0.4854 2 2.0814
87 0.1489 1 2.0690
88 0.0712 1 2.0568
89 0.1045 1 2.0449
90 0.9524 4 2.0667
91 0.9072 4 2.0879
92 0.9893 4 2.1087
93 0.7797 3 2.1183
94 0.8453 4 2.1383
95 0.8877 4 2.1579
96 0.9135 4 2.1771
97 0.8282 4 2.1959
98 0.5402 2 2.1939
 99 0.5923 2 2.1919
100 0.9627 4 2.2100
101 0.5209 2 2.2079
102 0.0157 1 2.1961
103 0.2865 1 2.1845
104 0.0402 1 2.1731
105 0.3018 1 2.1619
106 0.5989 2 2.1604
107 0.8886 4 2.1776
108 0.2684 1 2.1667
109 0.4840 2 2.1651
110 0.5667 2 2.1636
111 0.1063 1 2.1532
112 0.8284 4 2.1696
113 0.4138 2 2.1681
114 0.6975 2 2.1667
115 0.3429 1 2.1565
116 0.2967 1 2.1466
117 0.9865 4 2.1624
118 0.7878 3 2.1695
119 0.4295 2 2.1681
120 0.4153 2 2.1667
121 0.6728 2 2.1653
122 0.8115 3 2.1721
123 0.0634 1 2.1626
124 0.3503 1 2.1532
125 0.7104 2 2.1520
126 0.9151 4 2.1667
127 0.6985 2 2.1654
128 0.0658 1 2.1563
129 0.0671 1 2.1473
130 0.0172 1 2.1385
131 0.0461 1 2.1298
132 0.9008 4 2.1439
133 0.8382 4 2.1579
134 0.4395 2 2.1567
135 0.8102 3 2.1630
136 0.4529 2 2.1618
137 0.3361 1 2.1533
138 0.1654 1 2.1449
139 0.3134 1 2.1367
140 0.6072 2 2.1357
141 0.4864 2 2.1348
142 0.6355 2 2.1338
143 0.9521 4 2.1469
144 0.2824 1 2.1389
145 0.9281 4 2.1517
146 0.8031 3 2.1575
147 0.6724 2 2.1565
148 0.9582 4 2.1689
149 0.4990 2 2.1678
150 0.8588 4 2.1800
151 0.6692 2 2.1788
152 0.5779 2 2.1776
153 0.2525 1 2.1699
154 0.0037 0 2.1558
155 0.9426 4 2.1677
156 0.6757 2 2.1667
157 0.1494 1 2.1592
158 0.5342 2 2.1582
159 0.6129 2 2.1572
160 0.5539 2 2.1563
161 0.1531 1 2.1491
162 0.5959 2 2.1481
163 0.6209 2 2.1472
164 0.1539 1 2.1402
165 0.5474 2 2.1394
166 0.1290 1 2.1325
167 0.9731 4 2.1437
168 0.5906 2 2.1429
169 0.2172 1 2.1361
170 0.8559 4 2.1471
171 0.6509 2 2.1462
172 0.7476 2 2.1453
173 0.5574 2 2.1445
174 0.0775 1 2.1379
175 0.8785 4 2.1486
176 0.4378 2 2.1477
177 0.8730 4 2.1582
178 0.8066 3 2.1629
179 0.0442 1 2.1564
180 0.1688 1 2.1500
181 0.9167 4 2.1602
182 0.6539 2 2.1593
183 0.8657 4 2.1694
184 0.5265 2 2.1685
185 0.9399 4 2.1784 4
186 0.8786 4 2.1882 3.5
187 0.9299 4 2.1979
3
188 0.8207 4 2.2074
2.5

1.5
 4

3.5

189 0.7911 3 2.2116 2.5

190 0.0424 1 2.2053 2
191 0.2820 1 2.1990
1.5
192 0.2396 1 2.1927
193 0.4870 2 2.1917 1
194 0.4749 2 2.1907 0.5
195 0.0775 1 2.1846
0
196 0.0113 0 2.1735 0 50 1
197 0.9706 4 2.1827
198 0.4515 2 2.1818
199 0.0142 0 2.1709
200 0.0109 0 2.1600
 FUNCIONDE DENSIDAD ACUMU-
LADA f(X)
00

00

00

00

00

00

00
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Chart Title
4

3.5

2.5

1.5
 4

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
0 50 100 150 200 250