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 CHAPTER 12

12.1
i 1 /n i/( n + 1 ) m e d ia n ( i- .3 ) /( n + .4 )
1 0 .2 0 .1 6 6 6 6 7 0 .1 2 9 0 .1 2 9 6 2 9 6
2 0 .4 0 .3 3 3 3 3 3 0 .3 1 3 0 .3 1 4 8 1 4 8
3 0 .6 0 .5 0 .5 0 .5
4 0 .8 0 .6 6 6 6 6 7 0 .6 8 6 0 .6 8 5 1 8 5 2
5 1 0 .8 3 3 3 3 3 0 .8 7 0 .8 7 0 3 7 0 4

0 .8
i/n
0 .6 i/( n + 1 )
0 .4 m e d ia n
( i- .3 ) /( n + .4 )

m
0 .2

0
12 243 318 502 771

o
.c
12.2
EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATION
FOR UNGROUPED DATA - complete or singly censored

TIME RELIABILITY
0 1
CUM PROB (CDF)
0 ie
DENSITY (PDF)
1.971609E-03
HAZARD RATE
1.971609E-03

h
31.7 .9375 .0625 .0011121 1.18624E-03
87.9 .875 .125 3.472231E-02 3.968264E-02

c
89.7 .8125 .1875 4.310345E-03 5.30504E-03
104.2 .75 .25 8.116879E-03 .0108225

e
111.9 .6875 .3125 3.396739E-03 4.940711E-03
130.3 .625 .375 4.166667E-02 6.666667E-02

T
131.8 .5625 .4375 2.297794E-03 4.084968E-03
159 .5 .5 4.464305E-02 .0892861

e
160.4 .4375 .5625 5.482452E-03 1.253132E-02
171.8 .375 .625 3.676477E-02 9.803939E-02

c
173.5 .3125 .6875 1.157409E-02 3.703708E-02
178.9 .25 .75 7.62194E-03 3.048776E-02

A
187.1 .1875 .8125 1.096491E-03 5.847953E-03
244.1 .125 .875 3.238342E-04 2.590674E-03
437.1 .0625 .9375

MTTF= 159.96 VARIANCE= 8498.385 STD DEV= 92.18668

 ±t s 9219
. .
9219
MTTF α / 2 , n −1 : 159.96 ± t .025,14 : 159.96 ± 2145
. → 108.90,21102
.
n 15 15

12-1
12.3
GROUPED DATA CALCULATIONS
UPPER BOUND NO. SURV RELIABILITY DENSITY HAZARD RATE

0.0000 300.0000 1.0000 0.0500 0.0500

1.0000 285.0000 0.9500 0.0667 0.0702
2.0000 265.0000 0.8833 0.0600 0.0679
3.0000 247.0000 0.8233 0.0900 0.1093
4.0000 220.0000 0.7333 0.1167 0.1591
5.0000 185.0000 0.6167 0.1033 0.1676
6.0000 154.0000 0.5133 0.1500 0.2922
7.0000 109.0000 0.3633 0.1433 0.3945
8.0000 66.0000 0.2200 0.2200 1.0000
9.0000 0.0000 0.0000

COMPUTED MTTF= 5.603333

COMPUTED STANDARD DEVIATION= 2.454788
The failure rate is IFR which is most likely due to wearout.

12.4
a) EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS - ungrouped multiply censored data
adjusted rank method m
o
I TIME RANK INCR ADJ RANK RELIABILITY
1 5 1 1 .9435484

.c
2 12 1 2 .8629032
3 15 +
4 22 1.1 3.1 .7741936

ie
5 27 1.1 4.2 .6854839
6 35 +
7 49 1.257143 5.457143 .5841014

h
8 71 +
9 73 1.508571 6.965714 .4624424

c
10 81 1.508571 8.474286 .3407834
11 112 +

e
12 117 2.262857 10.73714 .158295

T
MULTIPLY CENSORED RELIABILITIES
product limit method

e
I TIME FACTOR RELIABILITY
1 5 .9230769 .9230769

c
2 12 .9166667 .8461539
3 15 + 1

A
4 22 .9 .7615384
5 27 .8888889 .6769231
6 35 + 1
7 49 .8571429 .5802198
8 71 + 1
9 73 .8 .4641759
10 81 .75 .3481319
11 112 + 1
12 117 .5 .1740659

12-2
Click to access Free Study
Material for your Course »
b) There are three non-failed units at time 117 when the 8 failure occurs and the test is presumed to
have ended. These three units can be considered censored at 117 so their times are 117+, 117+, and
117+.
MULTIPLY CENSORED RELIABILITIES
product limit method

I TIME FACTOR RELIABILITY

1 5 .9375 .9375
2 12 .9333333 .875
3 15 + 1
4 22 .9230769 .8076923
5 27 .9166667 .7403846
6 35 + 1
7 49 .9 .6663461
8 71 + 1
9 73 .875 .5830529
10 81 .8571429 .4997596
11 112 + 1
12 117 .8 .3998077
13 117 + 1

m
14 117 + 1
15 117 + 1

o
EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS - ungrouped multiply censored data

.c
adjusted rank method

I TIME RANK INCR ADJ RANK RELIABILITY

ie
1 5 1 1 .9545454
2 12 1 2 .8896104
3 15 +

h
4 22 1.076923 3.076923 .8196803
5 27 1.076923 4.153846 .7497503

c
6 35 +
7 49 1.184615 5.338462 .6728271

e
8 71 +
9 73 1.332692 6.671154 .5862887

T
10 81 1.332692 8.003846 .4997503
11 112 +

e
12 117 1.599231 9.603077 .3959041
13 117 +

c
14 117 +
15 117 +

12-3
12.5 LIFE TABLE

INTVL FAILURE WITHDRAW RISK ADJ-RISK P-DIE P-SURVIVE RELIABILITY

1.000 5.000 15.000 500.000 492.500 0.010 0.990 0.990

2.000 6.000 26.000 480.000 467.000 0.013 0.987 0.977
3.000 12.000 14.000 448.000 441.000 0.027 0.973 0.951
4.000 20.000 23.000 422.000 410.500 0.049 0.951 0.904
5.000 18.000 27.000 379.000 365.500 0.049 0.951 0.860
6.000 25.000 32.000 334.000 318.000 0.079 0.921 0.792
7.000 27.000 46.000 277.000 254.000 0.106 0.894 0.708
8.000 33.000 38.000 204.000 185.000 0.178 0.822 0.582
9.000 31.000 34.000 133.000 116.000 0.267 0.733 0.426
10.000 38.000 30.000 68.000 53.000 0.717 0.283 0.121

Reliability over a 5-year period if engines overhauled every 2 years:

2
b g
R(5) = R( 2 ) ⋅ R( 2 ) ⋅ R(1) = .977 .99 =.945

12.6 R( t0 ) = 1 − r / n → R( 200) = 1 − 2 / 30 =.9333

a)
F1 = Fα / 2, 2 n − 2 r + 2, 2 r = F.05,58, 4 = 5.69 and
m
F2 = Fα / 2, 2 r + 2, 2 n −2 r = F.05, 6,56 = 2.25

o
1 1 F1 F1
RL = = =.8058 and Ru = = =.9880
r +1 3 r 2
1+ F2 1 + 2.25 F1 + 5.69 +

.c
n−r 28 n − r +1 29
b)
1 1
F2 = Fα / 2, 2 r + 2, 2 n−2 r = F.10, 6,56 = 187 → RL = = =.8331

ie
.
r +1 3
1+ F2 1 + 187
.
n−r 28

12.7
LIFE TABLE h
INTVL FAILURE WITHDRAW RISK ADJ-RISK P-DIE
1.000 5.000 2.000 100.00 99.000 0.051
c P-SURVIVE
0.949
RELIABILITY
0.949
2.000
3.000
8.000
12.000
4.000
2.000
93.000
81.000
91.000
80.000
0.088
0.150
e 0.912
0.850
0.866
0.736
4.000
5.000
18.000
24.000
10.000
12.000
67.000
39.000
62.000
33.000
0.290
0.727
T 0.710
0.273
0.522
0.142

e
Probability a patient will survive at least 5 years: 0.142

12.8 GROUPED DATA CALCULATIONSc

UPPER BOUND

0.0000
A NO. SURV

44.0000
RELIABILITY

1.0000
CUM PROB(CDF)

0.0000
DENSITY

0.0007
HAZARD RATE

0.0007
100.0000 41.0000 0.9318 0.0682 0.0011 0.0012
200.0000 36.0000 0.8182 0.1818 0.0018 0.0022
300.0000 28.0000 0.6364 0.3636 0.0023 0.0036
400.0000 18.0000 0.4091 0.5909 0.0027 0.0067
500.0000 6.0000 0.1364 0.8636
The hazard rate is increasing. The MTTF cannot be calculated as the data is incomplete (all 44 units did
not fail).

12-4
12.9
EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS - UNGROUPED MULTIPLY CENSORED DATA

product limit method rank adjustment Kaplan Meier method

TIME RELIABILITY RELIABILITY RELIABILITY
8 .9230769 .9435484 .9166667
12 .8461539 .8629032 .8333334
13 +
15 + 1
18 .7521368 .7643369 .7291667
24 + 1
25 .6446887 .6516897 .6076389
27 .5372406 .5390425 .4861111
29 + 1
30 .4029304 .3982335 .3240741
33 .2686203 .2574245 .162037
37 .1343102 .1166155 0

m
The reliability at the end of 2-year warranty as calculated by the 3 methods: .752, .764, & .729.

o
12.10
EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS - UNGROUPED MULTIPLY CENSORED DATA

.c
MULTIPLY CENSORED RELIABILITIES
product limit method

ie
I TIME FACTOR RELIABILITY
1 10 .9615384 .9615384
2 15 + 1

h
3 33 .9583333 .9214743
4 36 .9565217 .8814102

c
5 42 .9545454 .8413461
6 42 + 1

e
7 50 + 1
8 55 .9473684 .7970648

T
9 59 .9444444 .7527834
10 61 .9411765 .708502

e
11 62 .9375 .6642206
12 65 .9333333 .6199393

c
13 68 .9285714 .5756579
14 71 .9230769 .5313765
15-25 72 + 1

A
Estimate of reliability based on Equation12-18: .5314

12.11 R( t0 ) = 1 − r / n → R( 2000) = 1 − 15 / 500 =.97; F2 = Fα / 2, 2 r + 2, 2 n − 2 r = F.05,32,970 = 146

.
1 1
RL = = =.954 Therefore, the product specification is being met.
r +1 16
1+ F2 1 + 146
.
n−r 485

12-5
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Material for your Course »
12.12 EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS
FOR UNGROUPED DATA - complete or singly censored

TIME RELIABILITY CUM PROB (CDF) DENSITY (PDF) HAZARD RATE

0 1 0 3.55366E-04 3.55366E-04
134 .952381 4.761904E-02 5.537098E-04 5.813953E-04
220 .9047619 9.523809E-02 1.536098E-03 1.697793E-03
251 .8571429 .1428571 1.360544E-03 1.587302E-03
286 .8095238 .1904762 6.027727E-04 7.446017E-04
365 .7619048 .2380952 4.761904E-04 .000625
465 .7142857 .2857143 6.105006E-04 8.547009E-04
543 .6666667 .3333333 2.278423E-04 3.417635E-04
752 .6190476 .3809524 5.952381E-04 9.615385E-04
832 .5714286 .4285714 5.952381E-04 1.041667E-03
912 .5238096 .4761904

Probability an alternator fails during warranty period: 1-.762=.238.

Estimated number of failed alternators at end of warranty period: 5000(.238)=1190.

12.13 EMPIRICAL RELIABILITY CALCULATIONS

FOR UNGROUPED DATA - singly censored
m
o
Design A:

.c
TIME RELIABILITY CUM PROB (CDF) DENSITY (PDF) HAZARD RATE

0 1 0 1.420455E-03 1.420455E-03
44 .9375 .0625 1.893939E-03

ie
2.020202E-03
77 .875 .125 4.432624E-04 5.065856E-04
218 .8125 .1875 1.893939E-03 2.331002E-03
251 .75 .25 9.469697E-04 1.262626E-03
317 .6875 .3125 9.920635E-04 1.443001E-03

h
380 .625 .375 1.077586E-03 1.724138E-03
438 .5625 .4375 2.076412E-04 3.691399E-04

c
739 .5 .5 3.289474E-03 6.578947E-03
758 .4375 .5625 1.7507E-04 4.001601E-04
1115 .375 .625

Design B:
e
TIME RELIABILITY
T
CUM PROB (CDF) DENSITY (PDF) HAZARD RATE

0
32
1
.9375
e 0
.0625
1.953125E-03
2.016129E-03
1.953125E-03
2.150538E-03

c
63 .875 .125 4.222973E-04 4.826255E-04
211 .8125 .1875 1.689189E-03 2.079002E-03

A
248 .75 .25 7.911393E-04 1.054852E-03
327 .6875 .3125 8.116883E-04 1.180638E-03
404 .625 .375 8.680556E-04 1.388889E-03
476 .5625 .4375 1.558604E-04 2.770851E-04
877 .5 .5 2.403846E-03 4.807692E-03
903 .4375 .5625 1.218324E-04 2.78474E-04
1416 .375 .625

Design B provides the best long term reliability - there is a .375 probability of surviving 1416 thousand
cycles versus 1115 thousand cycles for design A. Design A has slightly better short term reliability -
there is a .8125 probability of surviving 218 thousand cycles versus 211 thousand cycles for design A.
However, the median time to failure for design A is 739 thousand cycles vs 877 thousand cycles for
design B. Select design B!

12-6
12.14
EMPIRICAL CALCULATIONS
FOR UNGROUPED DATA - complete or singly censored

TIME 1-H(T) H(t)-CUM PROB (CDF) DENSITY (PDF) HAZARD RATE

0 1 0 1.190476E-02 1.190476E-02
4 .952381 4.761904E-02 .1190476 .125
4.4 .9047619 9.523809E-02 .4761909 .5263163
4.5 .8571429 .1428571 9.523809E-02 .1111111
5 .8095238 .1904762 .4761909 .5882359
5.1 .7619048 .2380952 .1190476 .15625
5.5 .7142857 .2857143 .2380954 .3333336
5.7 .6666667 .3333333 .4761886 .714283
5.8 .6190476 .3809524 .2380954 .3846157
6 .5714286 .4285714 9.523809E-02 .1666667
6.5 .5238096 .4761904 9.523815E-02 .1818182
7 .4761905 .5238096 9.523809E-02 .2
7.5 .4285714 .5714285 .2380954 .5555561
7.7 .3809524 .6190476 .15873 .4166664

m
8 .3333333 .6666666 9.523809E-02 .2857143
8.5 .2857143 .7142857 .1190478 .4166671

o
8.9 .2380952 .7619048 4.329003E-02 .1818181
10 .1904762 .8095238 .2380954 1.250001

.c
10.2 .1428571 .8571429 3.663003E-02 .2564102
11.5 .0952381 .9047619 1.904762E-02 .2
14 4.761905E-02 .952381

ie
MTTF= 7.2899 VARIANCE= 6.876747 STD DEV= 2.622355
 ±t s 2.622 2.622
MTTR ; 7.2899 ± t .025,19 ; 7.2899 ± 2.093 → 6.063,8.517

h
α / 2 , n −1
n 20 20
Goal of MTTR = 4 hours not being met and only 80.95% of repairs completed in 10 hours.
12.15
c
GROUPED DATA CALCULATIONS

UPPER BND NO. SURV 1-H(t)

e CDF DENSITY HAZARD RATE

0.0000 40.0000
T
1.0000 0 0.1750 0.1750

e
1.0000 33.0000 0.8250 .175 0.1250 0.1515
2.0000 28.0000 0.7000 .3 0.1750 0.2500

c
3.0000 21.0000 0.5250 .475 0.1500 0.2857
4.0000 15.0000 0.3750 .625 0.2000 0.5333
5.0000 7.0000 0.1750 .825 0.0750 0.4286

A
6.0000 4.0000 0.1000 .9 0.0750 0.7500
7.0000 1.0000 0.0250 .975 0.0250 1.0000
8.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1
COMPUTED MTTF= 3.225
COMPUTED STANDARD DEVIATION= 1.93633

The MTTR is 3.225 hours.

The probability of the production line being down for more than 6 hours is .1.

12-7
 12.16 Treating the heating failure times as censored times, the product limit estimator is found:

MULTIPLY CENSORED RELIABILITIES

product limit method

I TIME FACTOR RELIABILITY

1 190 + 1
2 250 .8888889 .8888889
3 432 + 1
4 673 + 1
5 780 .8333333 .7407407
6 891 .8 .5925926
7 922 .75 .4444444
8 1020 .6666667 .2962963
9 1500 + 1

Kaplan Meier method

I TIME RELIABILITY

m
1 190 +
2 250 .875

o
3 432 +
4 673 +
5 780 .7

.c
6 891 .525
7 922 .35
8 1020 .175

ie
9 1500 +

From either estimate, R(500) < .88 and the suppliers claim is not supported.

12.17
h
c
TIME CUM PROB – H(t)(mean plotting position)
5.3 9.090906E-02

e
6.5 .1818182
7.8 .2727273
8.2 .3636364

T
10.4 .4545454
12.6 .5454545

e
13.2 .6363636
15.3 .7272727
18.4 .8181818

c
20.1 .9090909
MTTF= 11.78 VARIANCE= 25.39512 STD DEV= 5.039357
Goal is not supported. Ninety percent of the repairs are completed in approximately 20 hr.

year
A
95% CI: 8.174 hr < MTTR < 15.386 hr

12.18 Life Table

failure censor risk adj-risk p-die p-survive rel
1.000 5.000 6.000 150.000 147.000 0.034 0.966 0.966
2.000 10.000 4.000 139.000 137.000 0.073 0.927 0.895
3.000 16.000 8.000 125.000 121.000 0.132 0.868 0.777
4.000 20.000 4.000 101.000 99.000 0.202 0.798 0.620
5.000 30.000 10.000 77.000 72.000 0.417 0.583 0.362 = survival prob

12.19 (a) From the 4 percent and 96 percent ranked distributions, a 92 percent confidence interval on the
cumulative probability of the 3rd failure time is given by: .052 < F(50) < .3772. (b) 7 < t(29%) < 192.

12-8
That is, there a 92 percent confidence that approximately 29 percent of the failures will occur between
time 7 and time 192.

12.20 The following table is computed n = 6. Consistent results are obtained for the middle observations.

(i-.3)/(n+0.4) (i-.05)/n i/(n+1)

0 0 0 0
1 0.1094 0.0833 0.143
2 0.2656 0.2500 0.286
3 0.4219 0.4167 0.429
4 0.5781 0.5833 0.571
5 0.7344 0.7500 0.714
6 0.8906 0.9167 0.857

m
o
.c
ie
h
c
e
T
e
c
A

12-9
12.21 n = 70. Reliability with all failure modes: R(t) = RA(t) RB(t) RC(t)

Failure Failure Failure Failure (n+1-i)/

i time Mode mode A mode B mode C (n+2-i) RA(t) RB(t) RC(t) R(t)
0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1
1 1 A 1 -1 -1 0.9859 0.986 1.000 1.000 0.986
2 3 A 3 -3 -3 0.9857 0.972 1.000 1.000 0.972
3 23 A 23 -23 -23 0.9855 0.958 1.000 1.000 0.958
4 38 A 38 -38 -38 0.9853 0.944 1.000 1.000 0.944
5 66 C -66 -66 66 0.9851 0.944 1.000 0.985 0.930
6 95 B -95 95 -95 0.9848 0.944 0.985 0.985 0.915
7 100 C -100 -100 100 0.9846 0.944 0.985 0.970 0.901
8 130 C -130 -130 130 0.9844 0.944 0.985 0.955 0.887
9 136 A 136 -136 -136 0.9841 0.929 0.985 0.955 0.873
10 138 A 138 -138 -138 0.9839 0.914 0.985 0.955 0.859

About 10 percent will fail with the first 10,000 hours. Eliminating failure mode A, the probability of
failing under warranty is now 0.045.

m
o
.c
Failure Failure Failure Failure (n+1-i)/
i time Mode mode A mode B mode C (n+2-i) RA(t) RB(t) RC(t) R(t)
0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1

ie
1 1 A 1 -1 -1 0.9859 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 3 A 3 -3 -3 0.9857 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000
3 23 A 23 -23 -23 0.9855 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000

h
4 38 A 38 -38 -38 0.9853 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000
5 66 C -66 -66 66 0.9851 1.0 1.000 0.985 0.985

c
6 95 B -95 95 -95 0.9848 1.0 0.985 0.985 0.970
7 100 C -100 -100 100 0.9846 1.0 0.985 0.970 0.955

e
8 130 C -130 -130 130 0.9844 1.0 0.985 0.955 0.940
9 136 A 136 -136 -136 0.9841 1.0 0.985 0.955 0.940

T
10 138 A 138 -138 -138 0.9839 1.0 0.985 0.955 0.940

e
c
A

12-10
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