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ISB ITPM Assignment 7.2 Anmol Srivastava

The document discusses an AON diagram and calculations for a project. The estimated completion time is 40 weeks under normal conditions. The probability the project could be completed within a 35 week deadline is calculated to be 3.1%.

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8 views3 pages

ISB ITPM Assignment 7.2 Anmol Srivastava

The document discusses an AON diagram and calculations for a project. The estimated completion time is 40 weeks under normal conditions. The probability the project could be completed within a 35 week deadline is calculated to be 3.1%.

Uploaded by

srivastavaanmol09
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Please find the AON Diagram of the Tasks with the Forward and Backward Pass along with

the Slack calculation:


Please Note – Tasks A, C, D, E, F, J and K are the critical tasks with 0 slack.

1. What is the estimated completion time of this project under normal conditions?

According to the above diagram and calculations the estimated time of this project completion is 40 weeks under normal conditions.

 Calculated Expected Time using formula – Expected time = (Most optimistic time + 4 * Most likely time + Most pessimistic time) / 6

Note: I have rounded off the decimal values for whole days

2. What is the probability that the project could be completed within the deadline of 35 weeks (normal conditions)?
To calculate the probability of the project to be completed in 35 weeks, we need to calculate the variance of the Critical Activities which are A, C, D,
E, F, J, K as the variance of the project is the sum of the variances of the activities that are on the critical path, and the critical path includes the
activities which have zero slack.

Calculated Variance using formula - Variance = (Most pessimistic time – Most optimistic time)^2 / 36

TASK SLACK (critical task) VARIANCE of the Project


A 0 0.111111111
C 0 0.444444444
D 0 2.777777778
E 0 0.25
F 0 0.111111111
J 0 3.361111111
K 0 0.111111111
Total – 7.16

The NORMDIST formula in Excel should be used to compute the probability that the project can be completed in 35 weeks. The NORMDIST formula
in the context of project management has four parameters:
Parameter 1 – The deadline, in this case 35 weeks.
Parameter 2 – The expected completion time for the project 40 Weeks
Parameter 3 – The standard deviation of the project: this is the square root of the variance of the project √7.16 = 2.67
Parameter 4 – The value for this is 1, which will give a cumulative probability

The Probability of this project to be completed within 35 weeks:


=NORMDIST (35, 40, 2.67, 1) = 0.031

So the probability would be 3.1%

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