Continuous Probability

Distributions
Chapter 7

1
Learning Objectives

LO7-1 Describe the uniform probability distribution and use it to calculate

probabilities
LO7-2 Describe the characteristics of a normal probability distribution
LO7-3 Describe the standard normal probability distribution and use it to
calculate probabilities
LO7-4 Approximate the binomial probability distribution using the standard
normal probability distribution to calculate probabilities
LO7-5 Describe the exponential probability distribution and use it to calculate
probabilities
7-2
Uniform Distribution

The uniform distribution characteristics

• It is rectangular in shape
• The mean and the median are equal
• It is completely described by its minimum value a and its maximum value b

7-3
Uniform Distribution Formulas

The mean and standard deviation of a uniform distribution are computed as follows

The following equation describes the region from a to b

7-4
Uniform Distribution Example

Southwest Arizona State University provides bus service to students while they are on campus. A bus arrives
at the North Main Street and College Drive stop every 30 minutes between 6 a.m. and 11 p.m. during
weekdays. Students arrive at the bus stop at random times. The time that a student waits is uniformly
distributed from 0 to 30 minutes.

7-5
Uniform Distribution Example
The area of the uniform distribution is found by multiplying height *base
1
Area = (30-0) = 1.00
30−0
a+b 0+30
The mean is μ= = = 15
2 2
b−a 2 30−0 2
The standard deviation is σ= = = 8.66
12 12

7-6
Uniform Distribution Example

To find the probability that a student will wait more than 25 minutes, find the area between 25 and 30 minutes.
1
P(25 < wait time < 30) = (height)(base) = (5) = .1667
(30−0)

7-7
Uniform Distribution Example

To find the probability that a student will wait between 10 and 20 minutes, find the area between 10 and 20 minutes.
P(10 < wait time < 20) = (height)(base) = (10) = .3333
1
(30−0)

7-8
Normal Probability Distribution

The normal probability distribution is a continuous distribution with the following

characteristics
• It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the distribution
• The distribution is symmetric
• It is asymptotic, meaning the curve approaches but never touches the X-axis
• It is completely described by its mean and standard deviation
There is a family of normal probability distributions
• Another normal probability distribution is created when either the mean or the standard deviation
changes
7-9
The Normal Curve

7-10
Family of Normal Probability Distributions

Equal Means and Different Standard Deviations

Different Means and Standard Deviations

Different Means and Equal Standard Deviations

7-11
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The standard normal probability distribution is a particular normal distribution

• It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1
z VALUE The signed distance between a selected value, designated x, and the mean, μ, divided
by the standard deviation, σ.

Any normal probability distribution can be converted to the standard normal probability
distribution with the following formula

7-12
Areas Under the Normal Curve

Here is a portion of the “z” Table

7-13
Standard Normal Probability Example
In recent years a new type of taxi service has evolved in more than 300 cities world-wide, where the customer is
connected directly with a driver via a smartphone. It uses the Uber mobile app, which allows customers with a
smartphone to submit a trip request which is then routed to a Uber driver who picks up the customer and takes the
customer to the desired location. No cash is involved, the payment for the transaction is handled via a digital
payment. Suppose the weekly income of Uber drivers follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of
$1,000 and a standard deviation of $100.

What is the z-value of income for a What is the z-value of income for a driver
driver who earns $1,100? who earns $900?
x−μ $1,100−$1,000 x−μ $900−$1,000
Z= = = 1.00 Z= = = -1.00
σ $100 σ $100

Regardless of whether z is +1or -1, the area under the curve is .3413
7-14
The Empirical Rule

To verify the Empirical Rule:

z of 1.00 = .3413 so .3413 * 2 = .6826 or about 68%
z of 2.00 = .4772 so .4772 * 2 = .9544 or about 95%
z of 3.00 = .4987 so .4987 * 2 = .9974 or about 99.7%
7-15
The Empirical Rule Example

As part of its quality assurance program, the Autolite Battery Company conducts tests on battery life. For a
particular D-cell alkaline battery, the mean life is 19 hours. The useful life of the battery follows a normal distribution
with a standard deviation of 1.2 hours.

1. About 68% of the batteries failed between what two values?

μ ±1 standard deviation; 19 ± 1(1.2) hours;
About 68% of batteries will fail between 17.8 and 20.2 hours.
2. About 95% of the batteries failed between what two values?
μ ±2 standard deviations; 19 ± 2(1.2) hours;
About 95% of batteries will fail between 16.6 and 21.4 hours.
3. Virtually all of the batteries failed between what two values?
μ ±3 standard deviations; 19 ± 3(1.2) hours;
Practically all of the batteries will fail between 15.4 and 22.6 hours.
7-16
Finding Areas under the Normal Curve

What is the z-value of income for a driver

who earns $1,100?

x−μ $1,100−$1,000
Z= = = 1.00
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($1,000 < weekly income < $1,100) = .3413
P(weekly income < $1,100) = .3413 + .5000 =.8413
7-17
Finding Areas under the Normal Curve

What is the z-value of income for a driver

who earns $790?

x−μ $790−$1,000
Z= = = -2.10
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($790 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4821
P(weekly income < $790) = .5000 - .4821 = .0179
7-18
Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve
What is the z-value of income for a driver who earns $840?

x−μ $840−$1,000
Z= = = -1.60
σ $100
What is the z-value of income for a driver who earns $1,200?

x−μ $1200−$1,000
Z= = = 2.00
σ $100
Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:
P($840 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4452
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,200) = .4772
P($840 < weekly income < $1,200) = .4452 + .4772 = .9224
7-19
Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve

What is the z-value of income for a driver

who earns $1,250?

x−μ $1,250−$1,000
Z= = = 2.50
σ $100

What is the z-value of income for a driver Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:
who earns $1,150? P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,250) = .4938
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,150) = .4332
x−μ $1,150−$1,000
Z= = = 1.50 P($1,150 < weekly income < $1,250) = .4938 - .4332 = .0606
σ $100

7-20
Finding a Value for x Using z
Layton Tire and Rubber Company wishes to set a minimum mileage guarantee on its new MX100 tire. Tests reveal the
mean mileage is 67,900 with a standard deviation of 2,050 miles and that the distribution follows the normal
distribution. Let x represent the minimum guaranteed mileage and use the formula for z to solve so that no more than
4% of tires need to be replaced.

x − μ x −67,900
z= = and from the table we find z = -1.75
σ 2,050
x −67,900
so -1.75 = = therefore, x = 64,312 miles
2,050 7-21
Approximate a Binomial Distribution

The normal probability distribution can approximate a binomial distribution under certain conditions
• nπ and n(1-π) must both be at least 5
• n is the number of observations
• π is the probability of a success
The four conditions for a binomial probability distribution are
• There are only two possible outcomes
• π (pi) remains the same from trial to trial
• The trials are independent
• The distribution results from a count of the number of successes in a fixed number of trials

7-22
Approximate a Binomial Distribution

Notice how the distribution approximates the shape of a normal distribution as n becomes larger

7-23
Approximate a Binomial Distribution

CONTINUITY CORRECTION FACTOR The value .5 subtracted or added, depending on the question,
to a selected value when a discrete probability distribution is
approximated by a continuous probability distribution.

7-24
How to Apply the Correction Factor

Only four cases may arise

• For the probability at least x occur, use the area above (x - 0.5) >=X

• For the probability that more than x occurs, use the area above (x + 0.5) >X
• For the probability that x or fewer occur, use the area below (x + 0.5) =<X
• For the probability that fewer than x occur, use the area below (x - 0.5) <X

7-25
Correction Factor Example
Suppose the management of the Santoni Pizza Restaurant found that 70% of its new customers return for
another meal. For a week in which 80 new customers dined at Santoni’s, what is the probability that 60 or more
will return for another meal?

μ=nπ = (80)(0.70) = 56
σ2=nπ 1−π = 80 (0.70) 1−.70 =16.8

σ= 16.8 = 4.10

=
x−μ 59.5 −56
z= = 0.85
σ 4.10

P(customers > 59.5) = 0.5000 - 0.3023 = 0.1977

7-26
Exponential Probability Distribution

• The exponential probability distribution describes times between events in a sequence

• The actions occur independently at a constant rate per unit of time or length
• It is non-negative, is positively skewed, declines steadily to the right, and is asymptotic

Examples of situations using the exponential distributions

• The service time for customers at the information desk at Dallas Public Library
• The time until the next phone call arrives in a customer service center

7-27
The Family of Exponential Distributions

There is not just one, exponential distribution, but a family of them λ, lambda, is the rate parameter
The lower the rate parameter, the “less skewed” the shape of the distribution

7-28
Exponential Distribution Formulas
This formula describes the exponential distribution
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION P(x) = λe-λx (7-6)
The area under the curve is given by this formula
FINDING A PROBABILITY
USING THE P(Arrival time < x) = 1 - e-λx (7−7)
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Both the mean and the standard deviation are
1 1
μ= and σ =
λ λ
7-29
Exponential Distribution Example

Orders for prescriptions arrive at a pharmacy website according to an exponential probability distribution at
a mean of one every 20 seconds.
Find the probability the next order arrives in less than 5 seconds.

1
−20(5)
P(Arrival time < 5) = 1 - 𝑒
= 1 - 𝑒 −0.25
= 1 - .7788 = .2212

7-30
Exponential Distribution Example

Orders for prescriptions arrive at a pharmacy website according to an exponential probability distribution at
a mean of one every 20 seconds.
Find the probability the next order arrives in more than 40 seconds.

1
−20(40)
P(Arrival time > 40) = 𝑒 = 0.1353

7-31