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11 PERT Analysis

The document discusses Project Time Management and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT is a probabilistic technique that uses three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) for each activity to determine expected activity times and variability. This allows calculating the probability of a project completing by a given date. PERT was developed for complex projects with uncertain durations like research and development.

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26 views24 pages

11 PERT Analysis

The document discusses Project Time Management and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT is a probabilistic technique that uses three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) for each activity to determine expected activity times and variability. This allows calculating the probability of a project completing by a given date. PERT was developed for complex projects with uncertain durations like research and development.

Uploaded by

Noorladeen
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Project Time Management

Program Evaluation and


Review Technique
(PERT)
PERT
 It is essentially the same type of planning tool as CPM.
 It is seldom used in construction planning except in
long-term, highly complex projects.
 It is most successfully used in non-repetitive business
or manufacturing operations.
 Estimating duration of non-repetitive operations can’t
be guided by past experience.
 It introduces the concept of variability in estimating
durations of non-repetitive operations.
 Since individual activity durations differ, then there
will be some variability in the entire project duration.
PERT
 PERT and CPM are similar in their basic approach,
they do differ in the way activity times are estimated.
 For each PERT activity three times (optimistic,
pessimistic and most likely times) are combined to
determine the expected activity completion time and
its variance. Thus, PERT is a probabilistic technique: it
allows us to find the probability of the entire project
being completed by any given date.
 CPM, on the other hand, is called a deterministic
approach.
PERT

 PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and


control of the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on
completing the program in the shortest possible time. In addition
PERT had the ability to cope with uncertain activity completion
times (e.g. for a particular activity the most likely completion
time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3 weeks and
8 weeks).
 In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence
relationships using activity-on-arrow network construction
 Multiple time estimates
 Probabilistic activity times
 It is used in : Project management - for non-repetitive jobs
(research and development work), where the time and cost
estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses
probabilistic time estimates.
CPM and PERT
CPM PERT
1 Uses network, calculate float or slack,
identify critical path and activities, Same as CPM
guides to monitor and controlling
project
2 Uses one value of activity time Requires 3 estimates of activity time
Calculates mean and variance of time

3 Used where times can be estimated Used where times cannot be estimated
with confidence, familiar activities with confidence.
Unfamiliar or new activities

4 Minimizing cost is more important Meeting time target or estimating


percent completion is more important

5 Example: construction projects, Example: Involving new activities or


building one off machines, ships, etc products, research and development
etc
PERT

a = Optimistic time (the minimum time to do the job)


b = Pessimistic time (the maximum time to do the job)
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
PERT
TUTORIALS

Activity IP a m b
A: Prepare initial design - 1 3 5
B: Identify new potential clients - 4 5 12
C: Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 3 10
D: Prepare final design A 1 8 9
E: Obtain planning permission D 1 2 3
F: Obtain finance from bank E 1 3 5
G: Select contractor D 2 4 6
H: Construction G, F 10 17 18
I: Finalize tenant contracts B, C, E 6 13 14
J: Tenants move in I, H 1 2 3

What is the probability of completing the project in 36 weeks?


TUTORIALS

Activity a m b
A 10 22 22
B 20 20 20
C 4 10 16
D 2 14 32
E 8 8 20
F 8 14 20
G 4 4 4
H 2 12 16
I 6 16 38
J 2 8 14

Determine the schedule time for a probability of completion of 100%.


MTCC5007: CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT 1

End of Lecture

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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