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CIE AS Maths: Probability & Your notes

Statistics 1
2.1 Basic Probability
Contents
2.1.1 Calculating Probabilities & Events
2.1.2 Venn Diagrams
2.1.3 Tree Diagrams

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2.1.1 Calculating Probabilities & Events

Your notes
Probability Basics
What do I need to know about probability for AS and A level Mathematics?
The language used in probability can be confusing so here are some definitions of commonly
misunderstood terms
An experiment is a repeatable activity that has a result that can be observed or recorded; it is what
is happening in a question
An outcome is the result of an experiment
All possible outcomes can be shown in a sample space – this may be a list or a table and is
particularly useful when it is difficult to envisage all possible outcomes in your head
e.g. The sample space below is for two fair four-sided spinners whose outcomes are the
product of the sides showing when spun.

An event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes; it is what we are interested in happening

Do note how this could be more than one outcome
e.g. For the spinners above,
the event “the product is -2” has one outcome but
the event “the product is negative” has 6 outcomes
Terminology - be careful with the words 'not', 'and' and 'or'
A and B means both the events A and B happen at the same time
A and B is formally written as A ∩ B (∩ is called intersection)
A or B means event A happens, or event B happens, or both happen
A or B is formally written as A ∪ B (∪ is called union)
not A means the event A does not happen
not A is formally written as A' (pronounced "A prime")
Notation – the way probabilities are written is formal and consistent at A-level
P (A ) = 0 . 6 “the probability of event A happening is 0.6”

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P (A ') = 0 . 4 “the probability of event A not happening equals 0.4”

⎯⎯⎯
(This is sometimes written as P (A ) ) Your notes
P (X ≤ 4) = 0 . 4 “the probability of being less than four is 0.4”
How do I solve A level probability questions?
Recall basic results of probability
number of ways to get " success "
P( " success " ) =
total number of outcomes
It is important to understand that the above only applies if all outcomes are equally likely
P(A ') = 1 − P(A )
The probability of “ not A ” is the complement of the probability of “A”
One of the easiest results in probability to understand,
one of the hardest results to spot!
Be aware of whether you are using theoretical probabilities or probabilities based on the results of
several experiments (relative frequency). You may have to compare the two and make a judgement as
to whether there is bias in the experiment.
e.g. The outcomes from rolling a fair dice have theoretical probabilities but the outcomes from a
football match would be based on previous results between the two teams
For probabilities based on relative frequency, a large number of experiments usually provides a better
estimate of the probability of an event happening
Frequencies or probabilities may have to be read from basic statistical diagrams such as bar charts,
box-and-whisker diagrams, stem and leaf diagrams, etc

Worked example
A fair, five-sided spinner has its sides labelled 2, 5, 8, 10 and 11.
Find, from one spin, the probability that the spinner shows
(i) 8
(ii) a prime number
(iii) an odd prime number
(iv) a number other than 5.

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Your notes

Exam Tip
Most probability questions are in context so can be long and wordy; go back and re-read the
question, several times, whenever you need to
Try to get immersed in the context of the question to help understand a problem

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Independent & Mutually Exclusive Events

What are independent events? Your notes
Independent events do not affect each other
For two independent events, the probability of one event happening is unaffected by the outcome of
the other event
e.g. The events “rolling a 6 on a dice” and “flipping heads on a coin” are independent
the outcome “rolling a 6” does not affect the probability of the outcome “heads” (and vice
versa)
For two independent events, A and B
P(A AND B ) = P(A ) × P(B )

1 1 1
e.g. P( " 6 on a dice " AND " heads on a coin " ) = × =
6 2 12
Independent events could refer to events from different experiments
What are mutually exclusive events?
Mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously
P(A AND B ) = P(A ∩ B ) = 0
For two mutually exclusive events, the outcome of one event means the other event cannot occur
e.g. The events “rolling a 5 on a die” and “rolling a 6 on a die” are mutually exclusive
For two mutually exclusive events, A and B
P(A OR B ) = P (A ∪ B ) = P(A ) + P(B )
1 1 2 ⎛1⎞
e.g. P( " 6 on a dice " OR " heads on a coin " ) = + = = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
6 6 6 ⎝3⎠
Mutually exclusive events generally refer to events from the same (single trial of an) experiment
Mutually exclusive events cannot be independent; the outcome of one event means the probability of
the other event is zero
How do I solve problems involving independent and mutually exclusive events?
Make sure you know the statistical terms – independent and mutually exclusive
Remember
independence is AND(∩) and is ×
mutual exclusivity is OR (∪) and is +
Solving problems will require interpreting the information given and the application of the appropriate
formula
Information may be explained in words or by diagram(s)
(including Venn diagrams – see Revision Note Venn Diagrams)

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Showing or determining whether two events are independent or mutually exclusive are also common
To do this you would show the relevant formula is true
Your notes
Worked example
(a) Two events, Q and R are such that P(Q ) = 0 . 8 and P(Q and R ) = 0 . 1 .
Given that Q and R are independent, find P( R )

(b) Two events, S and T are such that P( S ) = 2P(T ) .

Given that S and T are mutually exclusive and that P( S and T ) = 0 . 6 find P( S ) and P(T ) .

(c) A fair five-sided spinner has sides labelled 2, 3, 5, 7, 11.

Find the probability that the spinner lands on a number greater than 5.

(a) Two events, Q and R are such that P(Q ) = 0 . 8 and P(Q and R ) = 0 . 1 .
Given that Q and R are independent, find P( R )

(b) Two events, S and T are such that P( S ) = 2P(T ) .

Given that S and T are mutually exclusive and that P( S or T ) = 0 . 6 find P( S ) and P(T ) .

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Your notes

(c) A fair five-sided spinner has sides labelled 2, 3, 5, 7, 11.

Find the probability that the spinner lands on a number greater than 5.

Exam Tip
Try to rephrase questions in your head in terms of AND and/or OR !
e.g. A fair six-sided die is rolled and a fair coin is flipped.
“Find the probability of obtaining a prime number with heads.”
would be
“Find the probability of rolling a 2 OR a 3 OR a 5 AND heads.”

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2.1.2 Venn Diagrams

Your notes
Venn Diagrams
What is a Venn diagram?
A Venn diagram is a way to illustrate events and are particularly useful when outcomes overlap
Venn diagrams are mostly used for 2 or 3 events
A Venn diagram consists of a box (rectangle) and a bubble (circle/ellipse) for each event
Bubbles may or may not overlap
Bubble(s) is not a technical term, but we like it!
The box represents all outcomes
It is often referred to as the Universal Set and is commonly labelled with the symbols ℰ (Kunstler
script font uppercase letter E)S , U or ξ (Greek lowercase letter Xi)
There is no standardised symbol for this purpose
Bubbles are labelled with their event name (A, B, etc)
The numbers inside a Venn diagram (there should be one in each region) will represent either a
frequency or a probability
In the case of probabilities being shown, all values should total 1

What do the different regions and bubbles overlapping mean on a Venn diagram?
This will depend on how many events there are and how the outcomes overlap
Venn diagrams show ‘AND’ and ‘OR’ statements easily

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Your notes

Worked example
40 people were surveyed regarding which games consoles they owned.

8 people said they owned a Playstation 5 ( P ) and an Xbox Series X (X ).

5 people said they owned neither of these consoles.

Of those people that owned only one games console, twice as many owned an Xbox Series X as a
Playstation 5.
One of the 40 people is chosen at random. Find the probability that this person
(i) owns both consoles,
(ii) owns exactly one console,
(iii) doesn’t own a Playstation 5.

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Your notes

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Exam Tip
Your notes
The rectangle in a Venn diagram is a key part of the diagram
it represents all possible outcomes of the experiment
the bubbles merely represent the events we are particularly interested in
there is usually a few possibilities that fall outside of these events so this would be the section
outside the bubbles but inside the rectangle
A quick ‘mini-Venn’ diagram shading the parts required to answer the question can be useful
rather than always drawing a full Venn diagram with all its values

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2.1.3 Tree Diagrams

Your notes
Tree Diagrams
What is a tree diagram?
A tree diagram is used to
show the (combined) outcomes of more than one event that happen one after the other
help calculate probabilities when AND and/or OR’s are involved
Tree diagrams are mostly used when there are only two mutually exclusive outcomes of interest
e.g. “Rolling a 6 on a die” and “Not rolling a 6 on a die”
More than three outcomes per event can be shown on a tree diagram but they soon become difficult to
draw and so lose their effectiveness
Tree diagrams are very helpful when probabilities for a second event change depending on the first
event
How do I draw and label a tree diagram?

In the second experiment, P(B) may be different on the top set of branches than the bottom set
this is because the top set of branches follow on from event A but the bottom set of branches
follow on from event “ not A ”
e.g. This is most commonly seen in drawing one item at random, not replacing it, then drawing
another
Sometimes a second branch may not be needed following a first event

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e.g. In aiming to pass a test (experiment) the event fail on the first attempt would require a
second attempt but the event pass on the first attempt would not
Your notes

How do I solve probability problems involving tree diagrams?

Interpret questions in terms of AND and/or OR (See 1 Basic Probability)
Draw, or complete a given, tree diagram
Determine any missing probabilities; often using 1 − P(A ) and considering
if probabilities change depending on the outcome from the 1st experiment
Write down the (final) outcome of the combined events and work out their probabilities – these are
AND statements
P(A AND B ) = P(A ) × P(B ) (“Multiply along branches”)
Do not simplify fractions yet – it’ll be easier to calculate with them later
you can of course use your calculator
If more than one (final) outcome is required to answer a question then add their probabilities – these
are OR statements
P(AB OR " not A " " not B " ) = P(AB ) + P( " not A " " not B " ) (“Add outcomes”)
This applies since all the (final) outcomes are mutually exclusive
Note that AB , " not A " " not B " are implied AND statements (for example AB means A and B)
When you are confident with tree diagrams you can just pull out the (final) outcome(s) you need to
answer a question rather than routinely list all of them

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Worked example
Your notes
A contestant on a game show has three attempts to hit a target in a shooting game.
They have a maximum of three attempts to hit the target in order to win the star prize – a speedboat. If
they do not hit the target within three attempts, they do not win anything.
The probability of them hitting the target first time is 0.2. With each successive attempt the
probability of them failing to hit the target is halved.
Find the probability that a contestant wins the star prize of a speedboat.

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Your notes

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Exam Tip
Your notes
It can be tricky to get a tree diagram looking neat and clear first attempt – it can be worth drawing
a rough one first, especially if there are more than two outcomes or more than two events; do
keep an eye on the exam clock though!
Always worth another mention – tree diagrams make particularly frequent use of the result

Tree diagrams have built-in checks

the probabilities for each pair of branches should add up to 1
the probabilities for each outcome of combined events should add up to 1

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