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    Python For Spatial Analysis

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    ojas
    This document analyzes population projection methods for the city of Ahmedabad, India using Python. It explores arithmetic, geometric, and incremental projection methods applied to ward-level population data from 1991, 2001, and 2011. Maps of projected populations for 2021 and 2031 show consistent dense areas in the north and south. The conclusion is that arithmetic projection would best suit Ahmedabad's growth pattern based on its development over the years.

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    Python For Spatial Analysis

    Uploaded by

    ojas
    5 views29 pages
    This document analyzes population projection methods for the city of Ahmedabad, India using Python. It explores arithmetic, geometric, and incremental projection methods applied to ward-level population data from 1991, 2001, and 2011. Maps of projected populations for 2021 and 2031 show consistent dense areas in the north and south. The conclusion is that arithmetic projection would best suit Ahmedabad's growth pattern based on its development over the years.

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    Python for Spatial Analysis

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    This document analyzes population projection methods for the city of Ahmedabad, India using Python. It explores arithmetic, geometric, and incremental projection methods applied to ward-level population data from 1991, 2001, and 2011. Maps of projected populations for 2021 and 2031 show consistent dense areas in the north and south. The conclusion is that arithmetic projection would best suit Ahmedabad's growth pattern based on its development over the years.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    5 views29 pages

    Python For Spatial Analysis

    Uploaded by

    ojas
    This document analyzes population projection methods for the city of Ahmedabad, India using Python. It explores arithmetic, geometric, and incremental projection methods applied to ward-level population data from 1991, 2001, and 2011. Maps of projected populations for 2021 and 2031 show consistent dense areas in the north and south. The conclusion is that arithmetic projection would best suit Ahmedabad's growth pattern based on its development over the years.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 29

    PYTHON PROGRAMMING FOR Elective End-Term Assignment

    SPATIAL ANALYTICS (GE4620) Shivang K Vyas (PUP22324)


    4th Semester
    Master’s in Urban Planning
    LARGER CONTEXT
    AHMEDABAD
    Area 1866 sq.km
    Population: 80.9Lakhs
    1st India’s World Heritage VADODARA
    Area 704 sq.km
    0 km Population: 17 Lakhs

    115 km

    3rd Forbes’s list of fast-growing cities BHARUCH


    ANKLESHWAR
    Area : 635 sq.km
    BHAVNAGA Population : 6.43
    R Lakhs

    JALGAON
    SURAT

    20% Country’s Industrial output Area : 1091 sq.km


    Population : 48
    Lakhs
    269 km
    Legend
    NAVSARI
    DMIC
    1st International Financial Services NASHIK

    City AURANGABAD
    Centre (GIFT City) Boundary VAPI SHIRDI

    MUMBAI
    Area : 603 sq.km
    Ahmedabad Population : 12.5 million

    5th GDP Rank | $80 Billion GDP 530 km


    STUDY AREA
    GIFT CITY

    Number of Wards & Villages


    AMC: 57
    AUDA: 166

    Population(Census)
    AMC: 62 lakhs
    AUDA: 72 lakhs

    SANAND

    With an extent of 1866 sq.km., Ahmedabad is still growing in terms of


    area and population. The Development Plans and micro level TP Schemes are
    in constant scrutiny to assess incoming and outgoing population and their needs.
    JETALPUR
    Thematic aim is to understand Urban Growth in a city.
    But how?
    SUPPORTING LITERATURE
    A. “Case Study: Comparative Analysis of Population Forecasting Methods for Mumbai
    Suburban District by Sahil Yogesh Rohira”
    • Importance of forecasting population highlighted to also
    understand water supply, sewage needs, etc.
    • 4 methods: Arithmetic, Geometric, Incremental,
    Decreased Rate of Growth studied.
    • Factors affecting the growth discussed.
    • Error calculation done to address method fallacies.
    SUPPORTING LITERATURE
    B. “Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future Mega City: Case Study of Ahmedabad by Lehner,
    V. Kraus and K. Steinnocher”
    • Importance of Ahmedabad in terms of growing industrial
    and commercial spaces
    • Analyzing population change via extrapolation.
    • The idea of a ‘Mega City’
    SUPPORTING LITERATURE
    C. “A spatio-temporal assessment and prediction of Ahmedabad’s urban growth between
    1990-2030 by Shobhit C., K. Shukla, E. Rajasekar and N. Bhatt”
    • Analysing urban growth trends in the city
    • Uses LANDSAT images for spatio-temporal evaluation
    • Spatial space occupancy in Ahmedabad over 40 yrs.
    Great literature, but again: How?
    QUESTIONS FOR RESOLVE, PYTHON FOR SOLVE!

    1. How does a city expand in retrospect of population projections?

    2. Factors affecting growth of a city?

    3. Understand the 3 prime methods – Arithmetic, Geometric and Incremental and

    produce desired outputs.

    4. Where is Ahmedabad growing spatially looking at population numbers?


    Let’s get to it then!
    How does the data look like?
    DATASETS USED – WARD-WISE AMC POPULATION
    1991 2001

    2011
    EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS

    Spread with outliers

    Positive skewed distribution Spread with narrow range


    2011 POPULATION MAPPING

    Dense population seen towards southern areas.


    The real deal
    Projection Methods
    ARITHMETIC PROJECTION (AP)

    The final table after AP is applied to the


    population, added as AP21 and AP31.
    ARITHMETIC PROJECTION (AP)

    More denser areas in the central part of the city


    ARITHMETIC PROJECTION (AP)

    Next 10 years changes are reflected numerically as seen in the plot.


    GEOMETRIC PROJECTION (GP)

    The final table after GP is applied to the


    population, added as GP21 and GP31.
    GEOMETRIC PROJECTION (GP)

    Similar visual as AP31 but drastic number changes


    GEOMETRIC PROJECTION (GP)

    Numbers getting higher for a dynamic histogram


    INCREMENTAL INCREASE PROJECTION (IP)

    The final table after IP is applied to the


    population, added as IP21 and IP31.
    INCREMENTAL INCREASE PROJECTION (IP)

    Big changes in visual, indicating non-uniform growth numbers


    INCREMENTAL INCREASE PROJECTION (IP)

    Numbers getting unknowingly higher showing discrepancy in the method


    So what’s good for Ahmedabad?
    CONCLUSION
    1. From the above analysis, there is a pattern variation in the maps. The histogram shifts towards the centre

    by the time we analyse the incremental method.

    2. There are constant bold spots seen towards the north – south areas of Ahmedabad, giving a slight hint of

    spatial growth there.

    3. The way Ahmedabad is seen developing over the years, an Arithmetic Projection would be a good way to

    do a population forecasting for this city.

    4. As for the other 2 methods, the numbers somewhat do not make sense at certain instances.
    LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE SCOPE

    1. One limitation is the clarity in data acquiring.

    2. Naming the places in the raster image would be another limitation, which would help in

    locating.

    3. As for future, this study can be converted on different scales such as for small townships.

    4. The numbers can be helpful to understand another projection method based on

    employment generation.
    THANK YOU

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