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Sheet 4 Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule

This document contains examples and problems related to conditional probability and Bayes' rule. There are 12 problems presented over topics like finding conditional probabilities, determining if events are dependent or independent, and calculating probabilities of events occurring given prior probabilities.

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45 views3 pages

Sheet 4 Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule

This document contains examples and problems related to conditional probability and Bayes' rule. There are 12 problems presented over topics like finding conditional probabilities, determining if events are dependent or independent, and calculating probabilities of events occurring given prior probabilities.

Uploaded by

abdelazeemhassan492
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Egyptian Academy for Engineering Statistics

& Advanced Technology Affiliated Course code: BAS 151


to Ministry of Military Production

Sheet 4
Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule

1. Let A and B are two events such that P(A|B) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.25 and P(A) = 0.2.
Find (i) P(B|A). (ii) P(A∩B). (iii) P(A∪B). (Tutorial)

2. For two events 𝐴 and 𝐵, let P(A|B) = 0.4, P(B|A) = 0.25 and P(A∩B) = 0.12.
(i) Calculate the value of 𝑃(𝐵).
(ii) Give a reason why 𝐴 and 𝐵 are dependent.
(iii) Calculate the value of P(A∩Bc). (Assignment)

3. Let A and B be two events such that P(A∪B) = 2/3, P(Ac∩B) = 1/6 and P(A∩Bc) = 1/3.
(i) Find P(𝐴|𝐵)
(ii) Check the independence of 𝐴 and 𝐵. (Tutorial)

4. Ninety percent of flights depart on time. Eighty percent of flights arrive on time. Seventy-five
percent off lights depart on time and arrive on time. What is the probability that
(i) A flight will arrive on time if it departed on time.
(ii) A flight will depart on time if it arrived on time.
(iii) A flight will arrive on time if it didn't depart on time.
(iv) Are the events departing on time and arriving on time independent? (Tutorial)

5. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing
cards. Find the probability that the event A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that the
first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event
that the third card is greater than3 but less than 7.

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6. A problem in statistics is given to five students. Their chances of solving it are 1/2,1/3,1/4,1/4
and 1/5. What is the probability that the problem will be solved? (Tutorial)

7. A computer program is tested by 5 independent tests. If there is an error, these tests will
discover it with probabilities 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5, respectively. Suppose that the program
contains an error. What is the probability that it will be found
(i) By at least one test?
(ii) By at least two tests?
(iii) By all five tests? (ANS: 0.8488, 0.4774, 0.0012)

8. Consider the following events for a family with children: A = {children of both sexes}, B = {at
most one boy}.
(i) Show that A and B are independent events if a family has three children.
(ii) Show that A and B are dependent events if a family has only two children. (Assignment)

9. A computer maker receives parts from three suppliers, S1, S2, and S3. Fifty percent come from
S1, twenty percent from S2, and thirty percent from S3. Among all the parts supplied by S1, 5%
are defective. For S2 and S3, the portion of defective parts is 3% and 6%, respectively.
(i) What portion of all the parts is defective?
(ii) A customer complains that a certain part in her recently purchased computer is defective.
What is the probability that it was supplied by S1? (Assignment)

10. A factor has four machines; the numbers of pieces produced per day by these are 1000, 1200,
1800 and 2000 respectively. The first machine produces on the average 1% defective prices,
the second 0.5%, the third 0.5% and the fourth 1%. If a piece selected at random is defective,
what is the probability that it is produced by the fourth machine? (Tutorial)

11. An insurance company insured 2000 motorcycle drivers, 4000 car drivers, and 6000 truck
drivers. The probability of an accident is 0.01, 0.03, and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured
persons has an accident. What is the probability that he is a motorcycle driver? (ANS: 0.019)

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12. Suppose the following three boxes are given: Box A contains 3 red and 5 white marbles. Box
B contains 2 red and 1 white marbles. Box C contains 2 red and 3 white marbles. A box is
selected at random, and marble is randomly drawn from the box. If the marble is red, find the
probability that it came from the box A. (ANS: 0.26)

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