AP Macroeconomics Ultimate Guide Notes - Knowt
AP Macroeconomics Ultimate Guide Notes - Knowt
Trade-Offs
Since we have scarce resources, individuals, firms, and governments are faced with trade-
offs.
Some examples of trade-offs for individuals are choosing between housing
arrangements, transportation options, grocery store items, etc.
For firms, the trade-offs are often centered on which good or service can be
provided, how much should be produced, and how to go about producing those
goods and services.
The government is faced with issues that are likely to have an immediate impact on
the lives of local citizens.
1.2 Opportunity Cost and the Production Possibilities Curve
(PPC)
Production Possibilities Curve
To examine production and opportunity cost, economists find it useful to create a
simplified model of an individual, or a nation, that can choose to allocate its scarce
resources between the production of two goods or services.
Realistically, PPC curves are not straight lines and tend to be concave-shaped.
The reason for this concave shape is that certain resources are more compatible with the
production of a specific good/service.
Thus, when they are used up forcefully, they are less productive-hence the higher
opportunity cost arises.
A generalized view of the production possibility curve:
The slope of the curve measures the opportunity cost of the good on the x-axis.
The inverse of the slope measures the opportunity cost of the good on the y-axis.
Constant Opportunity Cost v/s Increasing Opportunity Cost
The production possibilities curve can illustrate two types of opportunity costs:
Increasing opportunity costs:
We must weigh the benefits and costs of our choices.
Opportunity cost is the cost of the next best alternative that we must give up
pursuing a certain action.
For instance, if we have $10 and we choose to buy coffee for $2, the opportunity
cost is the pastry we could have purchased instead.
The opportunity cost increases with every decision we make, as we give up more
alternatives. This is called increasing opportunity cost.
It's crucial to consider the opportunity cost of each decision to make the most
efficient use of our resources and maximize our benefits.
Decreasing opportunity costs:
To decrease opportunity costs, increase efficiency by using fewer resources to
achieve the same output.
Prioritize important goals and allocate resources towards them to minimize the
opportunity cost of not pursuing other goals.
Increase flexibility by adapting quickly to changing circumstances and being open to
new ideas.
The graph for decreasing opportunity curve is not possible in real life.
Efficiency
Productive efficiency - When the economy is producing the maximum output for a given
level of technology and resources. All points on the production frontier are productively
efficient.
Allocative efficiency - The economy is producing the optimal mix of goods and services.
Optimal - The combination of goods and services that provides the most net
benefit to society.
Market failure - When a market fails to produce the allocative efficient quantity.
Growth
Economic growth - The ability to produce a larger total output over time. Can occur if one
or all of these happen:
An increase in the number of resources.
An increase in the quality of existing resources.
Technological advancements in production.
Economic contraction - It is when a country's economy shrinks due to factors such as
reduced spending by consumers, businesses, or the government.
Economic contractions are a normal part of the business cycle and can lead to long-
term growth if managed correctly.
1.3 Comparative Advantage and Trade
Comparative Advantage and Specialization
Absolute advantage -
The absolute advantage is producing goods/services more efficiently, using fewer
inputs.
Let’s say a bakery and a pizza parlor both produce pizza crusts and pastries.
This graph presents the number of pastries and crusts each shop can produce. Since the
bakery can produce more pastries than the pizza parlor, the bakery has an absolute
advantage in pastry production.
Comparative advantage -
In macroeconomics, this principle is the basis for showing how nations can gain
from free trade%%.%% Using the same example as before, we can say that the
bakery has a comparative advantage since it can produce pastries at a lower
opportunity cost. In the same way, the pizza parlor has a comparative advantage
in pizza crusts.
They describe the way that individuals, nations, and societies can acquire more
goods at a lower cost.
There are two types of problems:
Output problems:
To determine the absolute advantage, you are simply looking for which
country can produce a higher amount of goods or services.
To determine you have to calculate per unit opportunity cost using the
formula give up/gain (the amount of good you are giving up divided by the
amount of good you are gaining). Once you have calculated per unit
opportunity cost, the country with the lowest one has a comparative
advantage.
If the two countries can both make the same amount of the good, then we say
neither country has an absolute advantage.
Countries export what they have a comparative advantage in and import
what they don't have a comparative advantage in.
Input problems:
To determine absolute advantage, you are looking for the country that uses
the least number of resources (i.e., the lower number).
To determine comparative advantage, you have to calculate the per unit
opportunity cost using the formula gain/give up. Once you have calculated
the per unit opportunity cost the country with the lowest one has a
comparative advantage.
If the two countries can both make one unit of the good with the same
number of resources, then we say neither country has an absolute advantage.
Countries export what they have a comparative advantage in and import
what they don't have a comparative advantage in.
Terms of trade:
It deals with the country’s export prices to income prices and determines the relative price
between the nation’s exports and imports.
1.4 Demand
Law of demand - Holding all else equal, when the price of good rises, consumers
decrease the quantity demanded of that good.
All else equal - To predict how a change in one variable affects a second, we hold all other
variables constant. This is also referred to as the ceteris paribus assumption.
Change in Quantity Demanded vs. Change in Demand
Change in the quantity demanded only occurs due to change in price-movement along the
curve.
If product A would become expensive (P2 to P1), the quantity demanded would fall (D2
toD1)
Changes in demand are when the entire curve would shift upwards or downwards.
These are the determinants of demand which are variables causing consumers to buy
more or less of a product, irrespective of the price.
Determinants of Demand
The INSECT Acronym:
I = Income:
Goods are usually categorized into 2 types, inferior and normal.
Demand tends to decline (shift downwards) for inferior goods with an
increase in consumer income.
Demand for normal goods increases (shifts upwards) with an increase in
consumer income.
N = Number of Buyers/Consumers
The bigger the market for a product, the more likely the demand curve would
shift upwards.
S = Substitutes
2 goods would be considered substitutes if an increase in the price of one
good cause an increase in demand for the other good.
E = Expectations of Future Price
Consumer expectation plays a major role in the determination of the price.
C = Complements
These goods are purchased separately but used together.
T = Tastes and Preferences
This is the consumer’s taste for a product at any point.
Summing up:
Demand increases:
I = increase
N = increase
S = increase
E = increase
C = decrease
T = increase
Demand decreases:
I = decrease
N = decrease
S = decrease
E = decrease
C = increase
T = decrease
1.5 Supply
Supply is the different quantities of goods and services that are willing to produce at various
price levels.
Law of supply -
Rising prices give greater opportunities for suppliers to earn a profit.
When the price level increases, the quantity of a good, supplied increases.
When the price level decreases, the quantity of a good, supplied decreases.
Quantity Supplied v/s Supply
Quantity supplied is the amount of a good or service that is produced at a particular price
level.
The quantity supplied is one point on the curve.
Demand is the entire line with all of the points that make it up.
The change occurs along the supply curve.
Consider the price of $8 where the demand is 100 and the corresponding supply is 350.
This surplus is what creates market disequilibrium.
Changes in Equilibrium (solving demand and supply-related questions)
1. Is it supply, demand, or both?
2. Is it an increase (shift to the right) or a decrease (shift to the left)?
Supply increases towards the right and decreases towards the left.
Demand increases towards the right (moves upwards) and decreases towards the left
(moves downwards).
When supply is constant and only demand increases, equilibrium price, and quantity
increase.
When supply is constant and only demand decreases, equilibrium price and quantity
decrease.
When demand is constant and only supply increases, equilibrium price, and quantity
decrease.
When demand is constant and only supply decreases, equilibrium price and quantity
increase.
Key concepts:
Market shortage: shortage (Excess demand) - Also known as excess demand, a
shortage exists at a market price when the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity
supplied. The price rises to eliminate a shortage.
Market surplus: Surplus (Excess supply) - Also known as excess supply, a surplus exists
at a market price when the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. The price
falls to eliminate a surplus.
Changes in equilibrium:
Increase in demand:
eq (price) = increases
eq (quantity) = increases
Decrease in demand:
eq (price) = decreases
eq (quantity) = decreases
Increase in supply:
eq (price) = decreases
eq (quantity) = increases
Decrease in supply:
eq (price) = increases
eq (quantity) = decreases
Now, let’s dive into the components of the circular flow diagram.
Consumers:
Consumers are the people who buy the goods/services in an economy.
So, technically everyone is a consumer.
Consumers send money to the product market by buying goods.
They also interact with the factor market in which they provide labor and receive wages or
income.
Firms:
Producers in the economy.
Firm is any business that produces goods and supplies them to the product market and
then receives the payment for those goods.
Firms receive factors of production from the factor market and then pay them with wages.
Product Market
The market where firms sell goods and services.
A sweet exchange of goods and services for money between firms and households.
Plays a crucial role in the economy.
The interaction between demand and supply in the product market determines:
Prices of goods and services
The number of goods and services that are exchanged.
Factor Market
The market where factors of production such as labor, capital, and land are bought and
sold.
These factors are used by firms to produce goods and services, which are then sold to
households in the goods market.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross domestic product (GDP) - The market value of the final goods and services
produced within a nation in a given period.
Aggregate spending (GDP) - The sum of all spending from four sectors of the economy.
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M).
Consumer spending (C) - Spending done by customers.
Investment spending (I) - Investment is defined as current spending to increase
output or productivity later.
Three general types of investment are included in GDP:
New capital machinery purchased by firms.
New construction for firms or consumers.
The market value of the change in unsold inventories.
Government spending (G) - Purchases made by the government for final goods
and services and investments in infrastructure.
Net exports (X– M) - Exports → X, Imports → M
K.I.S.S.: Keep It Simple, Silly
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M) = Aggregate Spending = Aggregate Income (Y) = Sum of all
value added
National Income Concepts
Aggregate income (AI) - The sum of all income—Wages + Rent + Interest + Profit—earned
by suppliers of resources in the economy. With some accounting adjustments, aggregate
spending equals aggregate income and also equals the sum of the value added.
Value-added approach - A third approach to calculating GDP that considers all stages of
production of a final good and the value that was added to the final good along the way.
What is not included in GDP?
Illegal Activities:
transactions concerning illegal activities like drug trafficking, gambling, etc.
Unpaid work:
Volunteering and caregiving are not included in GDP.
not a market transaction.
Transfer payments:
not represent the production of goods and services.
like social security benefits or unemployment insurance.
Intermediate goods:
the goods used in the process but not counted for final consumption.
Depreciation:
wear and tear on capital goods, such as machines or buildings is not included.
2.2 Limitations of GDP
Uses of GDP in Economics
1. Measuring Economic Growth
GDP is used to measure the economic growth of a country. It provides a way to compare
the economic performance of different countries over time.
A higher GDP indicates that the economy is growing, while a lower GDP indicates that the
economy is contracting.
2. Comparing Living Standards
GDP per capita is used to compare the living standards of different countries.
It measures the average income per person in a country.
Countries with higher GDP per capita generally have higher living standards.
3. Assessing Business Cycles
GDP is used to assess the business cycles of a country. Business cycles refer to the
fluctuations in economic activity over time.
GDP can be used to identify periods of economic expansion and contraction.
4. Formulating Economic Policies
GDP is used to formulate economic policies. Governments use GDP data to make decisions
about fiscal and monetary policies.
For example, if GDP is growing too slowly, the government may implement policies to
stimulate economic growth.
5. Attracting Foreign Investment
GDP is used to attract foreign investment.
Countries with higher GDPs are generally seen as more attractive to foreign investors.
This is because a higher GDP indicates a more stable and prosperous economy.
Limitations of GDP
There are 4 main areas of limitation of GDP:
Acronym: P-I-E-S
1. Population
When populations are different from country to country but produce a similar amount of
products.
This gives an inaccurate picture of GDP.
2. Inequality
It’s a limit in measuring the standard of living.
Two countries with the same GDP but unequal distribution of income among all.
3. Environment
It’s a limit to measure the health of the economy.
4. Shadow economy
It involves the items which are not counted in GDP.
Shadow economy is the black market.
2.3 Unemployment
Employed - A person is employed if they have worked for pay at least one hour per week.
Unemployed - A person is unemployed if they are not currently working but are actively
seeking work.
Measuring the Unemployment Rate
Labor force - The sum of all individuals 16 years and older who are either currently
employed (E) or unemployed (U). LF = E + U.
Out of the labor force - A person is classified as out of the labor force if they have chosen
to not seek employment.
Labor force participation - The ratio of the size of the labor force to the size of the
population 16 years and older. LFPR = (LF/Pop)*100.
Unemployment rate - The percentage of the labor force that falls into the unemployed
category. Sometimes called the jobless rate. UR = 100 × U/LF.
Discouraged workers - Citizens who have been without work for so long that they
become tired of looking for work and drop out of the labor force. Because these citizens
are not counted in the ranks of the unemployed, the reported unemployment rate is
understated.
Types of Unemployment
Frictional unemployment - A type of unemployment that occurs when someone new
enters the labor market or switches jobs. This is a relatively harmless form of
unemployment and is not expected to last long.
Seasonal unemployment - A type of unemployment that is periodic, predictable, and
follows the calendar. Workers and employers alike anticipate these changes in employment
and plan accordingly, thus the damage is minimal.
Structural unemployment - A type of unemployment that is the result of fundamental,
underlying changes in the economy such that some job skills are no longer in demand.
Cyclical unemployment - A type of unemployment that rises and falls within the business
cycle. This form of unemployment is felt economy-wide, which makes it the focus of
macroeconomic policy.
Full Employment
Full employment - Exists when the economy is experiencing no cyclical unemployment.
The natural rate of unemployment - The unemployment rate associated with full
employment, somewhere between 4 to 6 percent in the United States.
2.4 Prices Indices and Inflation
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer price index (CPI) - The price index that measures the average price level of
the items in the base year market basket. This is the main measure of consumer inflation.
Deflation: the general decrease in prices.
Inflation: the general increase in prices.
Disinflation: a decrease in the rate of inflation.
Inflation rate: the percentage change in aggregate price level across an entire economy in
a year.
Market basket - A collection of goods and services used to represent what is consumed
in the economy.
Inflation
Inflation - The percentage change in the CPI from one period to the next.
The annual rate of inflation on goods consumed by the typical consumer - The
percentage change in the CPI from one year to the next.
Ex. → In January 2000, the CPI was 169.30, and one year later in January 2001, it
had risen to 175.60. We need to calculate the percentage change in the CPI to
calculate inflation. Inflation = (175.60 — 169.30)/169.30 = .037 or 3.7%
Difference between CPI and GDP Deflator
The CPI is based on a market basket of goods bought by consumers, including the ones
produced abroad. It’s a measure of inflation of only consumer goods.
Consumer Inflation rate = 100 x (CPI new - CPI old)/ CPI old
The GDP deflator includes all items that make up domestic products. It includes more
than just consumer goods, so it’s a broader measure of inflation.
Nominal and Real Income
Nominal income - Today’s income is measured in today’s dollars. These are dollars
unadjusted by inflation.
Real income - Today’s income is measured in base year dollars. These inflation-adjusted
dollars can be compared from year to year to determine whether purchasing power has
increased or decreased.
Real income this year = (Nominal income this year)/CPI this year (in hundredths)
Ex. →In 2014 Kelsey’s nominal income was $40,000, and it increases to $41,000 in 2015.
Curious about her purchasing power, she looks up the CPI in 2014 and finds that at the end
of that year, it was 234.8; at the end of 2015, it was 236.5. This is compared to the base
year value of 100 in 1984.
Real income 2015 = $40,000/2.348 = $17,036
Real income 2016 = $41,000/2.365 = $17,336
Difficulties with CPI
Consumer substitute - As the price of goods begins to rise, we know that consumers
seek substitutes. This substitution might make the base year market basket a poor
representation of the current consumption pattern.
Goods evolve - The emergence of new products (smartphones) and the extinction of
others (manual typewriters) is understood by firms and consumers, but the market basket
must reflect this or it risks becoming irrelevant.
Quality differences - Some price increases are the result of improvements in quality.
Prices that increase because the product is fundamentally better are not an indication of
overall inflation. Since the BLS can’t tell the difference between quality improvements and
actual inflation, the CPI can be overstated.
2.5 Costs of Inflation
Expected Inflation
When inflation is predictable, people can plan accordingly. The bank adds an inflation
factor on the real rate of interest to create a nominal rate of interest that savers receive
and borrowers pay.
Nominal interest rate = Real interest rate + Expected inflation
The real rate of interest - The percentage increase in purchasing power that a borrower
pays a lender.
Unexpected inflation
Some people gain and others lose since there’s no time to plan.
Rapid unexpected inflation usually hurts employees if real wages are falling, as
well as fixed-income recipients, savers, and lenders.
Rapid unexpected inflation usually helps firms if real wages are falling, as well as
borrowers. It might also increase the value of some assets like real estate or other
properties.
Costs of Inflation
Menu costs:
It results from firms having to change prices.
As inflation occurs, the price just skyrocketed and is placed in like a menu as a
result.
Shoe-leather costs:
It refers to the time and effort that people end up spending to counterattack the
effects of inflation.
Loss of purchasing power:
It occurs because inflation causes the value of the individual dollar to decrease over
time.
Wealth distribution:
It involves the real value of wealth being transferred from one group to another.
2.6 Real v/s Nominal GDP
Real and Nominal GDP
Nominal GDP - The value of current production at the current prices. Valuing 2015
production with 2015 prices creates nominal GDP in 2015. Also known as current-dollar
GDP or money GDP.
Real GDP - The value of current production but using prices from a fixed point in time.
Valuing 2015 production at 2014 prices creates real GDP in 2015 and allows us to compare
it back to 2014. Also known as constant-dollar or real GDP.
To deflate the nominal GDP or adjust it for inflation, this division should be made:
Real GDP = 100 X (Nominal GDP)/(Price index)
Real GDP = (Nominal GDP)/(Price index; in hundreds)
Base year - The year that serves as a reference point for constructing a price index and
comparing real values over time
Price index - A measure of the average level of prices in a market basket for a given year,
when compared to the prices in a reference (or base) year. You can interpret the price
index as the current price level as a percentage of the level in the base year.
Latte price index (LPI) example → Suppose GDP is made up of just one product,
cups of latte. We need a price index to calculate real GDP. Using 2012 as the base
year, a latte index is created and used to adjust nominal GDP to real GDP for this
good.
LPI in year t = 100 x (Price of latte in year t)/ (Price of a latte in base year)
Using Percentages
% ∆ real GDP = % ∆ nominal GDP - % ∆ price index
If nominal GDP increased by 5 percent and the price index increased by 1 percent, we
could say that real GDP increased by approximately 4 percent.
The GDP Deflator
GDP price deflator - The price index that measures the average price level of the goods
and services that make up GDP.
2.7 Business Cycles
The business cycle - The periodic rise and fall in 4 phases present in economic activity.
Can be measured by changes in real GDP.
Expansion - A period where real GDP is growing.
Peak - The top of a business cycle where an expansion has ended.
Contraction - A period where real GDP is falling.
Recession - Unofficially defined as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP.
Depression - A prolonged, deep contraction in the business cycle.
Trough - The bottom of the cycle where a contraction has stopped.
Changes in AD
Since AD is the sum of the four components of domestic spending [C, I, G, (X — M)], if any
of these components increases, holding the price level constant, AD increases, which
increases real GDP. This is seen as a shift to the right of AD.
If any of these components decreases, holding the price level constant, AD decreases,
which decreases real GDP. This is seen as a shift to the left of AD.
If you want to stimulate real GDP and lower unemployment, you need to boost any or all
of the components of AD.
If you feel AD must slow down, you need to rein in the components of AD.
Components of AD
Consumer Spending (C) - If you put more money in the pockets of households, it is
expected that they consume a great deal of it and save the rest. Consumers also increase
their consumption if they are optimistic about the future.
Investment Spending (I) - Firms increase investment if they believe the investment will be
profitable. This expected return on the investment is increased if investors are optimistic
about future profitability or if the necessary borrowing can be done at a low rate of interest.
Government Spending (G) - The government injects money into the economy by
spending more on goods and services, by reducing taxes, or by increasing transfer
payments.
Government spending on goods and services is a direct increase in AD.
Lowering taxes and increasing transfer payments increase AD through consumer
spending by increasing disposable income.
Net Exports ( X - M) - When sales to foreign consumers are high and purchases from
foreign producers are low, the net exports increase.
Foreign incomes - Exports increase with strong foreign economies. When foreign
consumers have more disposable income, this increases the AD in the United States
because those consumers spend some of that income on U.S.-made goods.
Consumer tastes - If American blue jeans become more popular in France,
American AD increases. If French wines become more preferred by American
consumers, AD in France increases.
Exchange rates - Imports decrease when the exchange rate between the dollar and
foreign currency falls. This makes foreign goods to be more expensive causing
consumers to buy fewer foreign-produced items.
3.2 Spending and Tax Multipliers
Multipliers
Multiplier effect—The idea that an initial change in spending will set off a spending chain
that is magnified in the economy.
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)—How much people consume rather than save
when there is a change in income. This can also be explained as the portion of each new
dollar of disposable income that consumers will spend rather than save.
Marginal propensity to save (MPS)—How much people save rather than consume when
there is a change in income. This can also be explained as the portion of each new dollar
of disposable income that consumers will save rather than spend.
MPC and MPS
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) is calculated by dividing the change in
consumption by dividing the change in disposable income.
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) is calculated by dividing the change in savings by
dividing the change in disposable income.
MPC + MPS = 1
Spending Multiplier
The spending multiplier, or fiscal multiplier, is an economic measure of the effect that a
change in government spending and investment has on the Gross Domestic Product of a
country. In other words, it measures how GDP increases or decreases when the
government increases or decreases spending in the economy.
Example: Matthew is an economist in the Federal Reserve, and he has been tasked with
figuring out the ideal stimulus would be to increase GDP by $5,000,000. He reasons that in
order to do that, he needs to figure out how much of their income consumers spend, and
how much they save. Through looking at the market and statistical data, he sees that
consumers are saving 35% of their after-tax income while spending 65% of it.
Using the spending multiplier formula (1 / MPS), he calculates that the Federal
Reserve needs to inject (5,000,000 / 2.86) = $1,748,251.75 into the economy based
on the current MPS.
Why does the government only have to spend $1.7M to increase GDP by $5M? This
is because of the multiplier effect. One group of consumers consumes 65% of its
new money on goods produced by another consumer. This consumer now has new
money and consumes 65% of it on goods produced by someone else and so on.
Thus, consumers immediately consume 65 percent of this increase ($1.7M x .65).
This $1.1M of consumption then triggers another line of consumption where these
consumers consumer 65% of their earnings ( .65 x .65 x $1.7M). This goes on and
on resulting in a multiple of 2.86.
The Spending Multiplier is largely related to how much consumers save, so if they
save only 20% of their income and spend the rest, then whatever stimulus the Fed
provides is magnified by 5 (1 / (0.2) = 5). This is the reason governments encourage
spending during recessions. It can stimulate the economy and increase the flow of
money.
Tax Multiplier
The tax multiplier is used to determine the maximum change in spending when the
government either increases or decreases taxes.
The tax multiplier is basically the opposite of spending multipliers. It talks about how much
people will not spend if taxes increase. If our net worth decreases because of taxes, it's
natural for people to cut back on spending right?
The formula for this multiplier is -MPC/MPS. The tax multiplier will always be less
than the spending multiplier. When spending occurs, we know that all of this money
will be multiplied in the economy. But, when taxes are increased or decreased, not
all the money received goes back into the economy. For example, if the government
decreases taxes which gives individuals more disposable income, there is no
guarantee they are going to spend all of the additional income.
Let's look at how we calculate this. If the MPC is 0.8 and the government imposes a
$50 increase in taxes, what is the tax multiplier and what happened to the GDP?
tax multiplier = -MPC/MPS
tax multiplier = -0.8/0.2
tax multiplier = -4
GDP change: -4 * $50 = -$200
One fun thing about tax multipliers is the fact that tax multipliers are smaller than spending
multipliers. This is because spending multipliers have an immediate impact on the
economy, but tax multipliers first have to go through someone's income before having an
impact on the economy.
3.3 Short-Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS)
Aggregate supply (AS)
The relationship between the aggregated price level of all domestic output and the level of
domestic output produced.
Short-Run Aggregate supply (SRAS)
The positive relationship between the level of domestic output produced and the
aggregate price level of that output.
Macroeconomic Short Run
In the macroeconomic short-run period, the prices of goods and services are changing
in their respective markets, but input prices have not been adjusted to those product
market changes. In the short run, the SRAS curve is typically drawn as upward sloping.
In stage 1, the economy is in a recession with low production meaning they are many
unemployed resources.
In stage 2, real GDP increases and approaches full employment, available resources are
harder to find and input costs begin to rise. If the price level for output rises faster than the
rising costs, producers have a profit incentive to increase production.
In stage 3, the AS curve is almost vertical, meaning that the economy is growing and
approaching the nation’s productive capacity where firms cannot find unemployed units.
GDPu - Low production
GDPf - Full employment
GDPc - Nation’s productive capacity
Changes in AS
In the short run, AS fluctuates without affecting the level of full employment.
Short-Run Shifts
The most common factor that affects short-run AS → An economy-wide change in
input (or factor) prices.
Input prices - If input prices fall economy-wide, the short-run AS curve increases
without changing the level of full employment.
Tax policy - Some taxes are aimed at producers rather than consumers. If these
“supply-side taxes” are lowered, short-run AS shifts to the right.
Deregulation - When the regulation of industries restricts their ability to produce,
the short-run AS likely increases.
Political or environmental phenomena - For a nation as large as the United States,
wars and natural disasters can decrease the short-run AS without permanently
decreasing the level of full employment. For a smaller nation or a large nation hit by
an epic disaster, this could be a permanent decrease in the ability to produce.
3.4 Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS)
Long-Run Aggregate supply (LRAS)
It is defined as the number of goods and services that an economy is capable of producing
with the full employment of resources.
Macroeconomic Long Run
In the macroeconomic long run, the input prices have enough time to fully adjust to
market forces. Here all product and input markets are balanced, and the economy is at full
employment (GDPf).
The Classical school of economics asserts that the economy always gravitates toward
full employment, so a cornerstone of classical macroeconomics is a vertical AS curve.
Long-Run Shifts
Availability of resources - A larger labor force, a larger stock of capital, or more widely
available natural resources can increase the level of full employment.
Technology and productivity - Better technology raises the productivity of both capital
and labor. A more highly trained or educated populace increases the productivity of the
labor force.
Policy incentives - If the policy provides large incentives to quickly find a job, full-
employment real GDP rises. If the government gives tax incentives to invest in capital or
technology, GDPf rises.
Ex. → Since the 1990s, the U.S. economy has seen dramatic increases in technology
and investment in capital stock. This period produced a significant increase in the
real GDP at full employment.
When the LRAS curve shifts to the right, it indicates economic growth.
3.5 Equilibrium in Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply (AD-
AS) Model
Equilibrium Real GDP and Price Level
Macroeconomic equilibrium - Occurs when the quantity of real output demanded is
equal to the quantity of real output supplied. Graphically this is at the intersection of AD
and SRAS. Equilibrium can exist at, above, or below full employment.
In this picture, the inflationary gap is the difference between GDPi and GDPf, or the
amount that real GDP must fall to reach GDPf.
3.6 Changes in the AD-AS Model in the Short Run
GDP Determinants
Consumer spending
Investment spending
Government spending
Net exports (exports-imports)
Supply Shocks
Supply shocks - An economy-wide phenomenon that affects the costs of firms and the
position of the SRAS curve, either positively or negatively. The shifts in SRAS are caused
by these.
Positive supply shocks might be the result of higher productivity or lower energy prices.
Negative supply shocks usually occur when economy-wide input prices suddenly
increase. Ex. → The Gulf War of 1990 to 1991.
3.7 Long-Run Self-Adjustment
Adjustment to a Recessionary Gap
Based on this graph, the economy is currently operating at full employment. If consumers
and firms begin to lose confidence in the labor market and overall economy, AD shifts to
the left.
In the short run, this causes a recessionary gap as real GDP falls to GDPr meaning
that unemployment rises and aggregate price levels fall from PL1 to PL2.
NOTE - One of the hallmarks of a recession is a decreased demand for many
factors of production.
This recessionary gap fixes itself since the prices of the products will decrease,
causing a gradual rightward shift of the SRAS curve to SRAS2. The curve shifts
to the right until the gap is closed and the economy is back at GDPf.
Adjustment to an Inflationary Gap
When the AD curve increases, an inflationary gap happens to cause an increase in real
GDP to GDPi (lower unemployment rate) and an increase in the aggregate price level to
PL2.
When this happens, there’s stronger demand for labor and all of the other factors
of production causing factor prices to rise. As the factor prices rise, the SRAS
curve shifts to the left to SRAS2 eventually eliminating the inflationary gap, but at
a higher aggregate price level of PL3.
3.8 Fiscal Policy
Expansionary Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy - Deliberate changes in government spending and net tax collection affect
economic output, unemployment, and the price level. Fiscal policy is typically designed to
manipulate AD to “fix” the economy.
Expansionary fiscal policy - Real GDP is low and unemploymentis high when the
economy suffers a recession. In the AD and AS model, there’s a recessionary equilibrium
located below full ememployment
If the government increases the spending or lowers net taxes, the AD curve increases. If
taxes are lowered, the multiplier is smaller so to have the same increase in real GDP, the
amount of taxes cut has to be larger than an increase in government spending.
To resume, expansionary fiscal policy is the increases in government spending or lower
net taxes meant to shift AD to the right.
Contractionary Fiscal Policy
Contractionary fiscal policy - When the economy operates beyond full employment,
inflation becomes a problem, so the government might need to contract the economy. This
inflationary equilibrium is beyond full employment. It can be done by decreasing
government spending or increasing net taxes, opposite to expansionary fiscal policy.
Both of these options causes the AD to shift to the left with the purpose of decreasing real
GDP and decreasing inflation.
Money demand - The demand for money is the sum of money demanded
transactions and money demanded as an asset. It is inversely related to the nominal
interest rate.
Shifters of the Demand for Money Curve
Price Level
Real GDP
Transaction Costs
The Supply of Money
The monetary base of a nation is determined by the country’s central bank (FED).
Money supply is independent of the nominal interest rate.
The Federal Reserve has three general tools of monetary policy that they control:
Engaging in open market operations
Changing the discount rate
Changing the required reserve ratio
Money Market Equilibrium
The money market is the interaction among institutions through which money is supplied
to individuals, firms, and other institutions that demand money.
Money market equilibrium occurs at the interest rate at which the quantity of money
demanded is equal to the quantity of money supplied.
Let's look at the various ways that the money market equilibrium change through four
different examples.
Example 1:
Example 2:
Example 3:
Example 4:
Investment Demand
It is the desired quantity of investment spending by firms across the economy on physical
capital and other resources for the pe productivity/profitability.
There is an inverse relation between the nominal interest rate and the quantity of
investment demanded.
In the graph below, the Federal Reserve increases the money supply. This action will lower
the nominal interest rate, and in turn, cause the quantity of investment demanded to
increase.
In the graph below, the Federal Reserve decreases the money supply. This action will raise
the nominal interest rate, and in turn, cause the quantity of investment demanded to
decrease.
The possibility of deflation at extremely high unemployment rates means that the Philips
curve may continue to fall below the x-axis.
Shifts in AD
Demand-pull inflation - This inflation is the result of stronger consumption from all
sectors of AD as it continues to increase in the upward-sloping range of SRAS.
If AD increases from AD0 to AD1 in the nearly horizontal range of SRAS, the price level
may only slightly increase, while real GDP significantly increases and the
unemployment rate falls.
If AD continues to increase to AD2 in the upward-sloping range of SRAS, the price level
begins to rise and inflation is felt in the economy.
If AD increases much beyond full employment to AD3, inflation is quite significant and
real GDP experiences minimal increases.
If nominal input prices fall, the SRAS curve shifts to the right.
Stagflation (Cost-push inflation) - A situation in the macroeconomy when inflation and
the unemployment rate are both increasing. This is most likely the cause of falling SRAS
while AD stays constant.
An increase in SRAS is the best possible macroeconomic situation. A decrease is one of
the worst.
A decrease creates inflation, lowers real GDP, and increases the unemployment
rate.
The Long-Run Phillips Curve
The AS model assumes that the long-run AS curve is vertical and at full employment. This
causes the Philips curve to be vertical at the natural rate of employment.
Seen in the graph above, AD1 shifts to the right to AD2, increasing both price and real
GDP. This is also known as the inflationary gap, and it is corrected through long-run
adjustment and contractionary fiscal or monetary policies.
Cost-Push Inflation
It is caused when production is decreased.
Anything which disturbs production and decreases supply is to be cost-push inflation.
With this type of inflation, supply shortages happen, leading to AS1 (short-run in this case)
shifting to the left to AS2. This drives the price level to increase but the real GDP to
decrease. This is a bad example of inflation because it's a little harder to fix.
Wage-Price Spiral
A self-perpetuating spiral where demand rises and supply goes down.
Demand-pull and Cost-push are working together, which is the worst case with inflation.
Everything is now at higher prices, which will lead to more inflation, then higher prices of
everything, then higher demand for wages, then higher production costs, and it keeps
going on.
As seen in the graph, we have a double shifter. AD is shifting to the right, while SRAS is
shifting to the left. As a result, real GDP is unchanged, but we still have an increase in the
price level.
Inflation due to Changes in the Money Supply
Inflation can happen due to changes in monetary supply.
Every time they increase or decrease the money supply, the price level can be
indirectly affected.
MS, meaning money supply, was increased by the Fed. Consequently, the interest
rate and quantity of money increased. This indirectly leads to an increase in price,
thus inflation.
Theory of Monetary Equality
A change in the money supply does not affect the economy.
Only the dollar values are changed and nothing else.
The theory of monetary neutrality is a nice way of saying money doesn’t matter.
The quantity theory of money - A theory that asserts that the quantity of money
determines the price level and that the growth rate of money determines the rate of
inflation.
It predicts that any increase in the money supply only causes an increase in the price level.
Equation of exchange - A way to view the quantity theory of money. The equation says
that nominal GDP (P × Q) is equal to the quantity of money (M) multiplied by the number of
times each dollar is spent in a year (V). MV = PQ.
The velocity of money - The average number of times that a dollar is spent in a year. V =
PQ/M.
Ex. → If in a given year the money supply is $100 and nominal GDP is $1,000, each
dollar must be spent 10 times; V = 10.
If the money supply (M) increases, the increase must be reflected in the other variables. To
accommodate an increase, the velocity of money must fall, the price level must rise, or the
economy’s output of goods and services must increase.
Economists believe that the quantity of output produced in a given year is a function of
technology and the supply of resources. Therefore, the increased money supply is going to
only create inflation.
5.4 Deficits and the National Debt
Key Vocabulary
Fiscal Stimulus—The use of expansionary fiscal policy, including an increase in government
spending, a decrease in personal taxes, or an increase in income transfers.
Fiscal Restraint—The use of contractionary fiscal policy, including a decrease in
government spending, an increase in personal taxes, or a decrease in income transfers.
Government Revenue—The total income gained by the government at all levels, through
tax policies, including income taxes, excise taxes, and regulatory taxes.
Government Expenditures—The total spending payments made by the government at all
levels, including discretionary and non-discretionary purchases.
Budget Surplus—The condition that exists when government revenues exceed government
expenditures. This occurs when tax revenues are more than government purchases plus
transfer payments in a given year.
Budget Deficit—The condition that exists when government expenditures exceed
government revenues. This occurs when tax revenues are less than government purchases
plus transfer payments in a given year.
National Debt—The accumulation of deficits over multiple years.
US National Debt
The US government’s debt is immense.
As of 2023, the debt is a huge $31 trillion!
Lower income taxes create disposable income for households, increasing both
consumption and savings from households and the profitability of investment for firms.
This allows for an increase in the productive capacity of the country because more
capital stock is accumulated. As well, this increases the long-run AS curve. Tax
incentives to increase savings and investment are likely to increase AD.
Demand for the U.S. dollar increases and the dollar appreciates relative to the euro if:
European taste for American-made goods is stronger.
European relative incomes are rising, increasing demand for U.S. goods.
The U.S. relative price level is falling, making U.S. goods relatively less expensive.
Speculators are betting on the dollar to rise in value.
The U.S. relative interest rate is higher, making the United States a relatively more
attractive place for financial investments.
6.4 Effect of Changes in Policies & Economic Conditions on the
Foreign Exchange Market
Change in Demand or Supply in Currency
There are four determinants that can change Four determinants canOREX Market.
Foreign tastes
Trade prices
Income levels
Real interest rates
Fiscal Policy Impact on Exchange Rates
When the government practices an expansionary fiscal policy (increase in spending or
decrease in taxes), there is an effect on the exchange rate for that country's currency.
If the government increases spending or decreases taxes, aggregate demand will
increase, GDP increase, and price increase.
When the government practices a contractionary fiscal policy (decreases spending or
increases taxes), there is an effect on the exchange rate of that country's currency
If the government decreases spending or increases taxes, aggregate demand will
decrease, GDP decrease, and price decrease.
Tariffs
Revenue tariff - An excise tax levied on goods not produced in the domestic market.
Ex. →The United States does not produce bananas. If a revenue tariff were levied on
bananas, it would not be a serious impediment to trade, and it would raise a little
revenue for the government.
Protective tariff - An excise tax levied on a good that is produced in the domestic market
so that it may be protected from foreign competition.
Ex. → Assume the domestic steel price is $100 per ton and the equilibrium quantity
of domestic steel is 10 million tons. Since other nations could produce it at a lower
cost, in the competitive world market, the price is $80 per ton. At that price, the
United States would demand 12 million tons but only produce eight million tons and
so four million tons are imported. If the steel industry is successful in getting a
protective tariff passed through Congress, the world price rises by $10, increasing
the quantity of domestic steel supplied and reducing the amount of steel imported
from four million to two million tons.
A higher price and lower consumption reduce the area of consumer surplus and
create deadweight loss.
NOTE - It is very important to label the axes correctly. If the market is for the dollar, the x-
axis should be labeled “Quantity of dollars.” The label on the y-axis depends on how
the dollar is being priced. If we are pricing dollars in terms of the number of euros it
takes to purchase 1 dollar, then the correct label is “Euros per dollar” or “Euro price of a
dollar”.
Changes in Net Export: Consequences
Changes in net export can bring significant impact.
Decrease in net exports:
decrease in aggregate demand.
exports become more expensive.
decrease in demand for domestic goods.
decrease in production and employment.
decrease in output.
Increase in net exports:
increase in aggregate demand.
exports become cheaper.
increase in demand for domestic goods.
increase in production and employment.
increase in output.
6.6 Real Interest Rates and International Capital Flows
Capital Flow
Inbound capital flow
It is the injection of funds into a domestic economy that occurs through the
purchase of domestic assets by foreign investors.
When real interest rates are high, it generates inbound capital flow.
This is because foreign investors look to invest their money into assets that have
high-interest rates because they can earn a higher profit.
Outbound capital flow
It is the extraction of funds from a domestic economy that occurs through the purchase of
foreign assets by domestic investors.
When real interest rates fall, it generates outbound capital flow.
This is due to the foreign investors look to invest in other countries because the interest
rate is higher there than in their own country.
Impact on net exports
A higher real interest rate in one country compared to another will make the currency of
the country with the higher interest rate more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an
appreciation of that currency. This can make exports from the country with the higher
interest rate more expensive for foreign buyers, and imports to that country cheaper,
which can lead to a decrease in net exports.
On the other hand, a lower real interest rate in one country compared to another will make
the currency of the country with the lower interest rate less attractive to foreign investors,
leading to a depreciation of that currency. This can make exports from the country with the
lower interest rate cheaper for foreign buyers, and imports to that country more expensive,
which can lead to an increase in net exports.
Central Banks and Domestic Interest Rates
Central Banks
It plays a major role in determining domestic interest rates.
It uses monetary policy tools such as open market operations, discount rates and
reserve requirements to influence interest rates.
When the central bank raises the interest rate, it will encourage banks to raise their
own interest rates as well.
Domestic Interest Rates
Affects net capital inflows:
country’s assets become more or less attractive to foreign investors.
domestic interest rate high → foreign investors may be likely to invest.
domestic interest rate low → foreign investors may be less likely to
invest.
Banks affect domestic interest rates:
When banks raise the interest rates they charge on loans, it can lead to higher
borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can, in turn, lead to
higher interest rates across the economy.
When banks raise the interest rates they pay on deposits, it can lead to higher
returns for savers, which can encourage them to save more and spend less,
which can also lead to higher interest rates across the economy.