Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

https://www.sciendo.com

Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management

Based on BIM Technology

Xiufang Li1,†, Xiaorui Jia1, Mingqiang Huang1

1. Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen, Fujian, 361024, China.

Submission Info

Communicated by Z. Sabir
Received January 12, 2024
Accepted January 17, 2024
Available online February 26, 2024

Abstract

The core objective of this study is to explore the application of BIM technology in the whole process of cost management
of construction projects and to assess the project risk. The study covers the key stages of project planning, design,
transaction and construction, and focuses on analyzing the cost management process of investment decision, design
estimate, transaction and construction.Through questionnaire surveys and expert interviews with 72 valid samples, this
study collects data on green building and analyzes the quality of the risk assessment data. Through questionnaire survey
and expert interviews with 72 good samples, this study collects data on green building and analyzes the quality of the risk
assessment data. In establishing the BIM-based project cost risk model, the study analyzes the management elements of
BIM and IPD in detail, including the quantification of technical and management components. three case projects show
that the application of BIM and IPD technologies in different projects has different focuses, and produces other
management effects. for example, the number of engineering changes (e.g., the number of changes to the project)
exhibited by the project B For example, the number of project changes (NCO) is 35, the cost change rate (COP) is 0.93%,
the duration change rate (DCP) is -10.25%, and the number of contract negotiations (NRFI) is 6. The risk evaluation
model is applied in a mixed-use project in Xiamen, China, and the results of the simulation experiments show that the
method is effective in realizing the risk assessment of the construction project, and the clustered nature of the output
features is good. The average value of the risk fuzzy variable is 0.576, and the minimum value is 0.192.

Keywords: BIM technology; IPD technology; risk assessment; construction costing.

AMS 2010 codes: 68M11

†Corresponding author.
Email address: [email protected] ISSN 2444-8656
https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-0529
© 2023 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang, published by Sciendo.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution alone 4.0 License.
2 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

1 Introduction

In the construction industry, project cost control and risk management are the key to ensuring the
smooth progress of the project; with the development of technology, especially the application of
building information modeling (BIM) technology, construction cost management is being
transformed to digitalization [1-2].

BIM technology is a 3D model-based building information management technology which can

provide a detailed digital description of the whole life cycle of the construction project.BIM not only
involves graphical representation but also includes time management, cost control, project
management, and other aspects of the construction project [3-4]. The application of BIM technology
in the cost management of the construction project, including, but not limited to, cost estimation, risk
identification, and assessment. Although BIM technology provides many advantages in cost
management, it also faces some challenges; firstly, the application of BIM technology requires high
initial investment and training costs for professionals; secondly, how to integrate and coordinate the
relationship between traditional cost management methods and BIM technology is a problem that
needs to be solved, and furthermore, data security and privacy protection are also issues that need to
be emphasized in the application of BIM [5]. In addition, data security and privacy protection are also
issues that need to be emphasized in BIM applications [6-8].

In actual construction projects, BIM technology has been used in various stages of cost management:
in the design stage, BIM is used for cost estimation and budget control; in the construction stage,
BIM is used for schedule control and change management; in the maintenance stage, BIM technology
can be used for asset management and operation and maintenance cost estimation [9-11]. With the
continuous progress of technology and the growth of market demand, the application of BIM
technology in construction cost management will be further deepened, and it is expected that more
BIM solutions integrated with artificial intelligence, big data analysis, and other advanced
technologies will appear to realize more efficient and smarter cost management [12-14]. In addition,
with the development of cloud computing and mobile technology, BIM technology will be more
conveniently applied to on-site management and remote collaboration.

Based on the digital application of construction cost risk control and management of BIM technology,
it can not only improve the accuracy and efficiency of cost management but also effectively reduce
the risk and improve the overall management level of the project [15-17]. Despite the existence of
certain challenges, with the technological advances and the improvement of the industry's cognition,
there is a broad prospect of the application of BIM technology in the field of construction cost
management. The banking industry should actively explore innovative cost management combined
with BIM technology. The banking industry should actively explore innovative cost management
methods combined with BIM technology to adapt to the development needs of the digital era.

The study firstly focuses on the key stages of project planning, design, transaction, and construction
and analyzes the cost management in investment decisions, design estimate, transaction process,
construction, etc. Through 72 valid questionnaires and expert interviews, the study focuses on the
understanding of green building and the experts' views on construction risk. Furthermore, the study
establishes a BIM-based construction cost risk assessment model and analyzes in detail the
management elements of BIM and Integrated Project Delivery (IPD), covering both technical and
managerial levels, and quantifies the application and management effectiveness of these elements
through three case projects. A detailed analysis of the management elements of BIM and Integrated
Project Delivery (IPD), covering both technical and managerial levels, was conducted to quantify the
application and management effectiveness of these elements through three case projects. Finally, the
study proposes risk management strategies for different phases and emphasizes the importance of
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 3

whole-process audit intervention to enhance the investment efficiency and risk control of the project.
The whole research process shows that BIM technology not only improves the efficiency and
accuracy of construction cost management but also provides new perspectives and tools for risk
assessment and management. The whole research process shows that BIM technology can not only
improve the efficiency and accuracy of project cost management but also provide a new perspective
and tool for risk assessment and management.

2 BIM technology and whole process cost management of construction project

2.1 Cost management of construction works at all stages

The whole process of cost management should be carried out throughout the project planning, design,
trading, construction, and other stages of implementation, the whole process of cost management
work as shown in Figure 1.

In the investment decision-making stage, the construction project investors first need to consider the
amount of money to be invested, the opportunity cost, the actual level of technology, and other factors
to make a decision on the size of the project, the use of the project, etc. The investment decision-
making stage is the cost management of the project before the stage; only the correct investment
decision-making can be calculated to be reasonable and meaningful for the cost of the project.

Design estimates need to calculate the amount of each component of the cost of the project and its
proportion of investment according to the size of the scope of the project, which can be divided into
unit project, single project, and construction project estimates at three levels.

In the transaction stage of the project cost management and bidding process, bidders will try to reduce
their labor consumption level, optimize the management organization, and optimize the construction
process so as to make the construction market reduce the consumption of resources and the project
price more reasonable.

The engineering construction stage is the construction unit and the contracting unit project in the
whole life cycle of the work of the center, and it is the process of the formation of the actual project
cost, of course, is also the focus of the work of the construction unit and the construction unit is the
main scope of work of the cost staff of all parties.

Completion of the project settlement refers to the contractor completing the construction of the
subject matter of the contract construction, and by the construction unit, after the completion of the
inspection, the two sides, according to the terms of the construction contract specific agreement on
the completed construction products for all accounting, and pay the price of the process of engineering.
4 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Project proposal Preliminary Technical Construction Contract Completion and

Bidding
feasibility study Design design Design implementation acceptance

Estimation Estimation Finalised

Fixed Budget Enterprise quota
Indicators indicators estimates

Budget for
Investment Total Design Revised General Completion
construction Contract price Settlement price
Estimates Estimates Estimates Settlement
drawings

Figure 1. The process cost management content

2.2 Fundamentals of Construction Cost Risk Assessment

2.2.1 Assessment of data collection

The questionnaire data were obtained in two stages, and the target respondents included experts in
the field of engineering, construction industry practitioners, researchers from colleges and research
institutes, owners, contractors, designers, consultants, constructors, supervisors, and property owners,
who have a certain degree of understanding of green buildings. 72 or more valid samples can meet
the analytical needs of this study according to the relevant requirements of statistics.

In order to further analyze the experience of experts who have contacted with green building in the
engineering field, we set up a league table of experts' years of experience in construction and years
of work, and the specific data are shown in Table 1. 23 experts, accounting for 35% of the total number
of experts, have contacted with green building, but have more experience in engineering. The number
of experts who have some exposure to green building but have poor engineering experience, i.e., with
more than 0 years of experience in green building and less than 10 years of experience, is 24,
accounting for 37.5% of the total number of experts.

Table 1. Experts are engaged in the development of construction years and working years
Working life
Work in green buildings Total
Over 3 years 4-10 11-16 17-20  21
3 2 1 5 6 17
0
0.1765 0.1176 0.0589 0.2941 0.3529 1.00
12 10 6 3 5 36
1-4
0.3333 0.2778 0.1667 0.0833 0.1389 1.00
2 0 1 2 6 11
5
0.1818 0 0.0909 0.1818 0.5455 1.00
17 12 8 10 17 64
Total
0.2656 0.1875 0.125 0.1563 0.2656 1.00
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 5

2.2.2 Risk assessment data quality analysis

In this section, the risk assessment data from the valid questionnaire are processed and analyzed,
firstly, to check the quality of the questionnaire data, then to compare the differences between
different categories of experts on the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of harm, and finally
to assess the importance of the risk of construction projects.

The reliability of the questionnaire was tested by using the coefficients most commonly used in scale
reliability tests, and the reliability of the risk assessment part of the questionnaire was calculated to
be very good, and the validity of the questionnaire was good.

In order to ensure the quality of the data and the rigor of the analysis, it is necessary to compare the
data of the experts who have been exposed to green building and those who have not been exposed
to green building. Firstly, the quality of the data of the two types of experts is examined, and the
results show that the Chi-Square test value of the data of the experts who have not been exposed to
the estimation of the risk level of the hazards is slightly less than the critical value of the significance
of the condition of 0.05, and the probability of the test of the companion is 0.051, that is, within the
acceptance range of the present study. Therefore, the quality of both data sets was considered
acceptable.

Next, a t-test was conducted to examine whether there was a significant difference in the probability
of occurrence and the degree of harm between the responses of those who had been exposed and those
who had not been exposed to the green building experts and the prerequisite of the t-test was that the
overall population was normally distributed and independent, and the normality of the data was
examined by the K-S test. The results showed that the overall population was normally distributed at
the significance level of 0.01, and a t-test was possible. The results of the t-test are shown in Table 2.
The results are shown in Table 2, and it should be noted that only some index values are listed in the
table, from which it can be obtained that there is no significant difference between the two types of
experts' estimation of the probability of occurrence of risk and the degree of harm at the significance
level of 0.05, and thus the data are valid.

From the t-value of construction risk factors, the probability of occurrence of project funding
problems is 1.74, sig. = 0.13, and the degree of harm is 0.93, sig. = 0.41. Similarly, the probability of
occurrence of underestimation or inaccuracy of the cost of the construction project is also high, and
the t-value of the degree of harm is 1.97. The project funding and cost of the construction project are
crucial for the construction of the project.
6 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Table 2. Test of the t of the two groups of data

Probability of
Serial Hazard level
Risk factor occurrence
number
T- value Sig. T- value Sig.
1 Project funding problem 1.74 0.13 0.93 0.41
2 Owner requirement change 0.36 0.77 -0.32 0.80
3 Unexpected cost overruns 0.75 0.42 0.95 0.38
4 Unreasonable period requirement 1.23 0.31 0.82 0.37
5 The project positioning is not sure 1.04 0.31 0.88 0.81
6 The inefficiency of the owner's representative -0.89 0.47 -0.41 0.69
7 The owner interferes with the construction process -0.52 0.63 0.92 0.30
The project evaluation results did not meet the desired
8 -0.82 0.53 -1.95 0.07*
green certification grade
…… …… …… …… …… ……
45 Cost estimation or uncertainty 1.32 0.36 1.97 0.08
Field survey
46 0.62 0.75 -0.35 0.86
inadequacy
47 Exchange risk 0.47 0.89 -0.75 0.63
48 Irresistible force 0.68 0.67 -0.51 0.78

3 Construction cost risk modeling and application based on BIM

3.1 BIM-based analysis of engineering cost risk parameters

1) Analysis of the management elements of BIM

In this study, the quantifiable BIM management element indicators are assigned a value of 1 if the
technology is applied to a specific project and 0 if the technology is applied to a specific project, and
the set of quantifiable BIM management elements can be expressed as follows:

BIM Technical Factors = Bi  (1)

2) Analysis of the management elements of IPD

Based on the above table, the set of quantifiable IPD management elements can be expressed as
follows.

IPD Factors = Ii  (2)

3.1.1 Input factor data calculations

Through research and interviews, this paper obtains three case projects: Project A is a new
comprehensive laboratory building project using general contracting mode and part of BIM
technology, Project B is a new museum project using general contracting mode and part of BIM
technology, and Project C is a new small wharf hydraulic engineering project using general
contracting mode and part of BIM technology.
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 7

The input elements of the engineering cost model, i.e., the inputs of the management elements related
to BIM technology and IPD mode in the project, can be divided into the technical elements that are
directly quantified and the management elements that are quantitatively calculated using the SNA
method.

Based on the above basic data organization and calculation analysis of the management elements of
the BIM technology and IPD model of the case study projects, all the management elements of the
three case study projects have been obtained, including the directly quantified technical elements and
the quantified organizational elements using the SNA method, and all the management elements of
each project are summarized to obtain the set of input elements of the engineering management model
of the case study (X-set). The X-set is the set of inputs to the project management model for this case
study:

X = B, I , O (3)

The input element data of each case project is shown in Table 3. In the table, the management elements
of BIM technology B1 , B3 , B5 , B6 , B7 , B8 , B9 , B10 , B11 are schematic design, preliminary design,
construction drawing design, construction preparation, construction implementation, architectural
application, structural application, MEP application, building performance analysis, pipeline collision
detection, and optimization of structural headroom. The management elements of IPD
I1 , I 2 , I3 , I 4 , I 5 , I 6 , I 7 , I8 , I 9 are financial risk sharing and benefit sharing. Key participant
responsibility, key participant financial information, key participant early intervention, enhanced
design, key participant project goal setting, collaborative decision-making mechanism, and signing
of multi-party cooperation agreement. the organizational elements O1 , O2 are the density of the team
network, the central potential of the team network, the potential of the team network, and the potential
of the team network.

Due to the specificity of the case data, some of the elemental indicators are not practiced in the three
case projects, for example, the indicators of "applying BIM technology in the preliminary design
stage, applying BIM technology in the construction preparation stage, applying BIM to calculate the
project quantity, and establishing the BIM cooperative management platform" have the value of 0 in
the three case projects. For the convenience of Calculation, these three case projects are removed
from the index of 0, and a total of 19 input elements are obtained for each project; therefore, the set
of input elements X = ( xm ) , ( m = 1, 2,3, 19) can be obtained.

The inputs in BIM and IPD in the three case projects are different, and the technical inputs in BIM
and IPD, as well as the characteristics of the organizational relationships in the costing work, are
focused and different.
8 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Table 3. Input factor data for each case project

Serial number Indicator code Project A Project B Project C
1 x1 = B1 1 1 1
2 x2 = B3 1 1 0
3 x3 = B5 0 0 0
4 x4 = B6 0 0 0
5 x5 = B7 0
6 x6 = B8 0 0 0
7 x7 = B9 1 1 0
8 x8 = B10 1 0 1
9 x9 = B11 1 1 1
10 x10 = I1 0 0 0
11 x11 = I 2 1 0 1
12 x12 = I3 1 0 0
13 x13 = I 4 0 0 0
14 x14 = I5 0 0 0
15 x15 = I 6 1 1 1
16 x16 = I7 1 0 0
17 x17 = I8 1 1 1
18 x18 = O1 0.65 0.6725 0.4823
19 x19 = O2 19.35% 27.06% 25.96%

3.1.2 Calculation of output factor data

The project-related indicators selected in this study include the total number of project changes
(NCO), the rate of change in project cost (COP), the rate of change in project duration (DCP), and
the number of contract negotiations proposed by the project constructor (NRFI), etc. Corresponding
to these indicators, the project-related data of the three case studies are obtained directly through the
research, and the data are summarized in Table 4, which is shown below. The data are summarized in
Table 4.

The data of NCO, COP, DCP, and NRFI in Project B are 35, 0.93%, -10.25%, and 6, respectively,
which are negatively correlated with the project management effect of Project B. The data of NCO,
COP, DCP, and NRFI in Project B are 35, 0.93%, -10.25%, and 6, respectively.

Table 4. Relevant indicators of project engineering changes

Serial number Performance index Project A Project B Project C
1 NCO 90 35 5
2 COP 20.52% 0.93% 2.38%
3 DCP 18.06% -10.25% 0%
4 NRFI 70 6 2

The data of the four indicators will be processed in the reverse direction, and the data after the
directional processing will be used as the expression of the effect of project management, i.e., the
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 9

output indicators in the model. After the above data processing, the set of output elements of each
case study project will be Y = ( ys ) , ( s = 1, 2,3, 4) .

The model output elements for each project are shown in Table 5, with DCP values of 112.74% and
100.00% for Project B and Project C, respectively, and NRFI values of 0.89 and 0.97, respectively.

The output elements of the three case projects, i.e., the performance indicators of the effectiveness of
project management, are very different, indicating that the actual outputs of the three case projects in
terms of project management are different from each other.

Table 5. The project change control model output elements

Serial number Output factor Project A Project B Project C
1 y1 = NCO '
0.68 0.92 0.99
2 y2 = COP '
83.25% 90.03% 97.12%
3 y3 = DCP '
86.97% 112.74% 100.00%
4 y4 = NRFI '
0.25 0.89 0.97

3.2 BIM-based cost risk assessment model for construction projects

3.2.1 Establishment of construction project cost risk evaluation indexes

This paper takes a complex project under construction in Xiamen as an example, according to the
whole life cycle management process of project cost from the perspective of the construction unit,
combing the risk indicators involved in the cost management of five major phases of construction
projects, and thus constructs the risk evaluation index system of construction project cost
management. the risk of each phase is the guideline layer, i.e., the first-level indicators, a total of five
indicators, and the main risk factors of the different stages are The main risk factors at different stages
are indicator layer, i.e., secondary indicators, totaling 24 indicators, and the indicator system of
construction project cost risk is shown in Table 6.

The construction cost management risk evaluation indicators are divided into the investment decision-
making stage, design stage, bidding stage, construction stage, and completion stage, of which the
completion stage involves three secondary indicators, i.e., Review of the completion settlement, audit
of the completion account, acceptance of the project quality.
10 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Table 6. The index system of the cost risk of construction process

Target layer Standard layer (level indicator) Index layer (secondary indicator)
Project size
Established standards of construction
Investment decision stage
C1 The selection of the location of the construction area
Investment estimation rationality
Feasibility of the financing scheme
The design budget review
Budget review of construction drawings
Design phase
C2 Feasibility of the design
Design schedule
Quota design
Integrity of bidding documents
Evaluation index
of construction The preparation and Review of the price of tender control
project cost Bidding stage
C3 Preparation and Review of bid quotation
management
The choice of contract type and pricing method
Reasonable integrity of the terms of the contract
Construction schedule and schedule
Construction and technical measures
Construction phase The degree of control of design changes
C4 Cost of personnel and material
Construction environment
Natural disasters, such as unirresistible factors
Completion settlement review
Completion stage
C5 Final audit
Project quality acceptance

3.2.2 Engineering cost risk AHP-gray clustering evaluation model

1) Establishing the engineering cost risk evaluation index set

In this section, the cost risk of each stage will be expressed in the form of a collection as follows:

C1 = Project scale C11 , determined construction standards C12 , choice of construction area location
C13 , reasonableness of investment estimate C14 , feasibility of financing program C15 }.

C2 = {Review of design estimate C21 , Review of construction drawing budget C22 , Feasibility of
design program C23 , Design progress C24 , Limit design situation C25 }.
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 11

C3 = {Completeness of bidding documents C31 , Preparation and Review of bidding control price
C32 , Preparation and Review of bidding offer C33 , Selection of contract type and pricing method
C34 , Reasonable completeness of contract terms C35 }

C4 = {Construction progress plan and schedule C41 , construction program and technical measures
C42 , controllable degree of design changes C43 , price of manpower, materials and machinery C44 ,
construction environment C45 , natural disasters, and other force majeure factors C46 }.

C5 = {Completion Settlement Review C51 , Completion Settlement Audit C52 , Project Quality
Acceptance C53 }.

2) Establishment of engineering cost risk evaluation level

In this paper, the evaluation standard of project cost risk is divided into five levels: low risk, low risk,
medium risk, high risk, and high risk, and the corresponding values of different risk levels are 1, 2, 3,
4 and 5 points, respectively, and the scoring matrix of risk index ( C11 − C53 ) is obtained, which is
expressed as follows:

 x111 x121  x441 

x x122 x442 
X =  112 (4)
 
 
 x11k x12 k x44 k 

3) Hierarchical analysis method to determine the weight of risk evaluation indicators

According to the engineering cost risk evaluation index system, the judgment matrix is constructed
for different levels of risk evaluation indexes, and the judgment matrix for the first level of indexes
is as follows.

c11 c12 c13 c14 c15 

c c22 c23 c24 c25 
 21
C = c31 c32 c33 c34 c35  (5)
 
c41 c42 c43 c44 c45 
c51 c52 c53 c54 c55 

Among them in cij when i = j , cij = 1 , that is, when the indicator is compared with itself, the value
is 1. cij for the indicator Ci and the indicator C j compared to the degree of importance of the
judgment value, c21 and c12 values for each other as the reciprocal, and so on.

Similarly, the importance of the second level of indicators to determine the judgment matrix is as
follows:
12 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

C1 = c1ij  (i = 1, 2,3, 4,5; j = 1, 2,3, 4,5)

C2 = c2ij  (i = 1, 2,3, 4,5; j = 1, 2,3, 4,5)
C3 = c3ij  (i = 1, 2,3, 4,5; j = 1, 2,3, 4,5) (6)
C4 = c4ij  (i = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6; j = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6)
C5 = c5ij  (i = 1, 2,3; j = 1, 2,3)

1 n
Where, cij =  mkjj , mkij indicates the rating of the expert k for judging the relative
n k =1
importance of indicator i and indicator j , and n indicates the total number of experts, where the
discrete coefficient is calculated as follows:

1 n
 ( Pij − K i )
2
Vi = Si / K i , Si = (7)
n − 1 j =1

As a result, the weight coefficients of the indicators in the comparative judgment matrix of each level
of the project cost risk evaluation system are as follows:

Tier 1 indicator levelWC = (W1 ,W2 ,W3 ,W4 ,W5 )

T

WC1 = (W11 ,W12 ,W13 ,W14 ,W15 )

T

WC2 = (W21 ,W22 ,W23 ,W24 ,W25 )

T

(8)
Sec ondary indicator levelWC3 = (W31 ,W32 ,W33 ,W34 ,W35 )
T

WC4 = (W41 ,W42 ,W43 ,W44 ,W45 ,W46 )

T

WC5 = (W41 ,W42 ,W43 )

T

The formula for calculating whether a matrix deviates from consistency is shown below.

max − n
C.I . = (9)
n −1
n
( BW )i
max =  ( ( BW )i is the ith element of BW ) , max is the maximum eigenvalue of B , and
i =1 nWi
W is the regularized eigenvector corresponding to max .

Calculating the combined weights of the different indicators of the hierarchical level, we can get the
total hierarchical ranking, i.e., the relative advantages and disadvantages of the factors of the lowest
level relative to the evaluation target. The combined weights of the second-level indicator level of the
project cost risk evaluation are as follows:
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 13

C1 = W1  WC1 = W1  (W11 ,W12 ,W13 ,W14 ,W15 )

T

C2 = W2  WC2 = W2  (W21 ,W22 ,W23 ,W21 ,W25 )

T

C3 = W3  WC3 = W3  (W31 ,W32 ,W33 ,W34 ,W35 )

T
(10)
C4 = W4  WC4 = W4  (W41 ,W42 ,W43 ,W41 ,W45 ,W46 )
T

C5 = W5  WC5 = W5  (W51 ,W52 ,W53 )

T

4) Gray clustering method to determine the risk evaluation level

In the risk evaluation problem, assuming that there are m evaluation objects, n evaluation
indicators, s different gray classes. the i (i = 1, 2, , m) evaluation objects on the j ( j = 1, 2, , n)
indicators of the clustering sample value is expressed as Dij , the matrix of evaluation samples is
expressed as follows:

 x11 x12  x1n 

x x22 x2 n 
X =  21 (11)
 
 
 xm1 xm 2 xmn 

The gray category s ( s = 1, 2, , w) indicates the risk level of the evaluation indicator. i.e., the risk
level serial number for each gray category is s = 1, 2,3, 4,5 .

The degree to which the expert expects different values of X within the dynamic range of the gray
number is the value corresponding to different values of the gray variable X . f ( xij ) denotes the
weights of the gray number x , which can be referred to as the whitening weight function of x .A
typical expression for the whitening weight function is shown below:

0 x   x1 , x4 

 x − x1 x   x1 , x4 
x − x
f ( xij ) =  2 1 (12)
1 x   x2 , x3 
 x4 − x
 x   x3 , x4 
 x4 − x3

If the whitening weight function has no first and second turning points x1 and x2 ,then f ( xij ) is
said to be a lower bound whitening weight function with the following expression:


0 x   0, x4 

f ( xij ) = 1 x   0, x3  (13)
 x −x
 4 x   x3 , x4 
 x4 − x3
14 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

If the whitening weight function does not have the first and second turning points x2 and x3 ,then
f ( xij ) is said to be the middle limit whitening weight function and its expression is shown as follows:



0 x  1, x4 
 x − x1
f ( xij ) =  x   x1 , x2  (14)
 x2 − x1
 x4 − x
 x   x2 , x4 
 x4 − x2

If the whitening weight function does not have the first and second turning points x3 and x4 , then
f ( xij ) is said to be the upper limit whitening weight function whose expression is shown as follows:

0 x   x1 , + 

 x − x1
f ( xij ) =  x   x1 , x2  (15)
 x2 − x1
1
 x   x2 , + 

Let the gray weight vector of the s th gray category of the secondary indicator Cij be Rijs , which
is calculated as follows:

ijs
Rijs = (16)
ij

Then, the weight vector Rij / s of the secondary indicator Cij for the five gray categories is:

Rij =  Rij1 , Rij 2 , Rij 3 , Rij 4 , Rij 5  (17)

From the above weight vectors of each secondary indicator Cij , the gray weight matrix Ri for the
primary indicator Ci ( C1 ~ C5 ) can be summarized as follows:

 Ri11 Ri12 Ri13 Ri14 Ri15 

R Ri 22 Ri 23 Ri 24 Ri 25 
 i 21
Ri =  Ri 31 Ri 32 Ri 33 Ri 34 Ri 35  (18)
 
 Ri 41 Ri 42 Ri 43 Ri 44 Ri 45 
 Ri 51 Ri 52 Ri 53 Ri 54 Ri 55 

Obtaining Wi as the weight of the first level indicator, the gray composite weight vector H i of the
first level indicator Ci is:
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 15

Hi = Wi Ri =  hi1 hi 2 hi 3 hi 4 hi5  (19)

And its gray composite weight matrix R is:

 H1   h11 h12 h13 h14 h15 

 H  h h22 h23 h24 h25 
 2   21
R =  H 3  =  h31 h32 h33 h34 h35  (20)
   
 H 4   h31 h42 h43 h44 h45 
 H 5   h51 h52 h53 h54 h55 

H i Represents the corresponding weight vectors of the project cost risk in the investment decision
stage, design stage, bidding stage, construction stage, and completion stage, respectively, and R
represents the weight matrix composed of the weight vectors of each first-level index.

According to the gray comprehensive weight vector of the first-level indicators obtained above, the
comprehensive weight vector of the evaluation target can be obtained, i.e., the comprehensive
evaluation results of the project engineering management risk C are:

C = Q  R = h1 h2 h3 h4 h5  (21)

There are five levels of risk evaluation level in this paper, and the value corresponding to the risk
level is denoted as P , then P = 1 2 3 4 5 . The comprehensive evaluation level of project
engineering cost risk G is:

E = C  PT (22)

3.2.3 Risk ranking of composite weights of risk indicators

This paper uses the AHP and entropy weight method combined with the combination of weighting
calculation method to determine the comprehensive weight of the project evaluation indicators,
respectively, to obtain the results of the weight of each sub-risk factor and the weight of the results of
the random consistency test. Risk indicators of the comprehensive weight of the risk ranking are
shown in Table 7.

The construction phase of the comprehensive weight of the second-level indicators is 0.231,
construction schedule and schedule, manpower and machinery prices 0.201, construction
environment 0.175, natural disasters and other force majeure factors 0.142, construction programs
and technical measures 0.092, the degree of controllability of the design changes 0.067.
16 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Table 7. Risk order of risk indicators

Standard layer (level Composite Risk
Index layer (secondary indicator) Weighting
indicator) weight sort
Project size 0.085 0.021 3
Investment decision Established standards of construction 0.063 0.019 5
stage The selection of the location of the construction area 0.111 0.102 4
C1 =0.189
Investment estimation rationality 0.463 0.421 2
Feasibility of the financing scheme 0.587 0.552 1
The design budget review 0.123 0.105 5
Budget review of construction drawings 0.567 0.511 2
Design phase
C2 =0.156 Feasibility of the design 0.685 0.532 1
Design schedule 0.472 0.423 3
Quota design 0.320 0.294 4
Integrity of bidding documents 0.352 0.290 1
The preparation and Review of the price of tender control 0.213 0.193 3
Bidding stage
C3 =0.214 Preparation and Review of bid quotation 0.103 0.082 4
The choice of contract type and pricing method 0.076 0.035 5
Reasonable integrity of the terms of the contract 0.282 0.225 2
Construction schedule and schedule 0.275 0.231 1
Construction and technical measures 0.075 0.067 6
Construction phase The degree of control of design changes 0.130 0.092 5
C4 =0.335 Cost of personnel and material 0.231 0.201 2
Construction environment 0.186 0.175 3
Natural disasters, such as unirresistible factors 0.165 0.142 4
Completion settlement review 0.213 0.112 1
Completion stage
C5 =0.106 Final audit 0.165 0.072 2
Project quality acceptance 0.081 0.053 3

3.2.4 Calculation of total project risk probability

1) Calculation of risk probability for the main risk layer

The risk probability of the main risk layer is shown in Table 8, which shows the risk probability data
of the five first-level indicators, in which the probability of very high risk does not exist, and the
probability values of the five main risk layers are all 0. The high-risk probability of the five first-level
indicators is ranked as 0.0152 for the investment decision-making stage, 0.0056 for the construction
stage, 0.0052 for the design stage, 0.0035 for the bidding stage, and 0.0003 for the completion stage.

Table 8. Main risk layer risk probability

Risk probability C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
Extremely high 0 0 0 0 0
High 0.0152 0.0052 0.0035 0.0056 0.0003
Medium 0.1352 0.0251 0.0421 0.0201 0.0217
Low 0.2836 0.1750 0.3128 0.3521 0.2338
Extremely low 0.5660 0.7947 0.6416 0.6222 0.7442
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 17

2) Calculation of the total probability value of risk for this construction project

Based on the comprehensive weights of the risk indicators of the construction project calculated in
the previous section, combined with the risk probability value of the main risk layer in the above
table, the total risk probability data of the project studied in this paper are calculated. The total risk
probability value of the project is shown in Table 9.

The total risk probability of the construction cycle of the project will appear to be very low. The
probability value will be relatively large, with a probability of 65.56% and a total risk probability of
a low probability value of 29.06%. To determine the weight of all the risk indicators for the
construction project for the assessment of the cost risk, to determine the construction cycle of the
project, to determine the probability of all the risk indicators of the risk evaluation system in the
probability of the distribution of the construction cycle process after a specific calculation process
We can get the probability value of the indicators of the design stage and the completion stage of the
project with low-risk level are very large, respectively 79.47% and 74.42%, while the probability
value of the indicators of the bidding stage, the construction stage and the investment decision-making
stage with low-risk level are 64.16%, 62.22%, and 56.60%. The construction project should formulate
specific risk response measures according to the corresponding risk probability value. The
construction project should formulate specific risk response measures according to the corresponding
risk probability values.

Table 9. The total risk probability of the project

Risk level Probability distribution
Extremely high 0
High 0.189*0.0152+0.1560*0.0052+0.214*0.0035+0.335*0.0056+0.106*0.0003=0.006341
Medium 0.189*0.1352+0.1560*0.0251+0.214*0.0421+0.335*0.0201+0.106*0.0217=0.047512
Low 0.189*0.2836+0.1560*0.1750+0.214*0.3128+0.335*0.3521+0.106*0.2338=0.290576
Extremely low 0.189*0.5660+0.1560*0.7947+0.214*0.6416+0.335*0.6222+0.106*0.7442=0.655572

3.2.5 Simulation experiment and result analysis

Taking a complex project under construction in Xiamen as an example, the feasibility of the
construction risk assessment model is verified through the calculation example in order to provide a
basis for risk managers to make risk decisions.

In order to test the performance of this paper in realizing the construction cost risk assessment,
simulation experiments are carried out: BIM software is applied in the construction process of a
substation, combined with Matlab simulation tools, Windows XP operating system, Tomcat server,
construction cost risk assessment, the sampling length of the construction risk assessment data is 1200,
and the fuzzy coefficient of risk decision-making is 0.18. The fuzzy coefficient of decision-making
is 0.18, the size of the test sample set is 1000, and the results of descriptive statistical analysis are
shown in Table 10. The mean value of the risk fuzzy variable of the project is 0.576, and the minimum
value is 0.192. The method of this paper can effectively realize the risk assessment of the construction
project, and the clustering of the assessment output feature quantity is good.
18 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Table 10. Descriptive statistical analysis results

Variable Mean Standard value Minimum value Median value
Risk assessment benefits 0.801 0.501 0.135 0.483
Evaluation coefficient 0.583 0.586 0.068 0.492
Construction scale 0.683 0.471 0.079 0.797
Artificial cost input 0.672 0.768 0.175 0.682
Industrial support 0.365 0.563 0.670 0.566
Risk ambiguity variable 0.576 0.678 0.192 0.482

4 Cost Risk Response Mechanism of Construction Project Based on BIM Technology

4.1 Pre-investment decision-making phase

Pre-decision-making stage in a long time investor attaches great importance to the stage is not
important; this view is a one-sided, pre-decision-making stage of the work done carefully and reliably
will directly affect the project's investment returns, so increasing the benefits of investment in the
project cost estimation is the most important decision-making stage of the work.

1) Rationalize project scale and construction standards.

2) Fast and efficient completion of relocation and clearance.

3) Determination of construction funds.

4.2 Design phase

Due to the complexity of the project, it is difficult to avoid design changes during the construction
process, and the impact on the project cost will be different depending on the time of the design
changes, according to the risk factor weights obtained from the hierarchical analysis method, the
design standard and construction drawing budget review, design estimate review and design progress
in the design stage are the important risk management factors.

1) Improve the quality of design and ensure that the depth of design is up to standard.

2) Detailed geological investigation.

3) Strictly control the quality of design drawings and construction drawings.

4.3 Bidding stage

During the bidding process, the Office of Construction Management of the project strictly follows the
requirements of the Finance Bureau and national laws and regulations and adopts public bidding for
all those that require it.

1) Ensure that the bidding documents reach a certain depth.

2) Ensure the accuracy of the preparation of the bill of quantities.

3) Ensure that the bidding units do not violate any laws or regulations.
 Digital Application of Construction Project Cost Risk Control and Management Based on BIM Technology 19

4.4 Construction phase

The cost management of the construction stage is an important part of the construction project cost
risk management; the construction stage is the biggest stage of the project cost input, accounting for
about 60%-70% of the cost of the whole project.

1) Control engineering changes and reasonable engineering visas.

2) Strict implementation of the project contract.

3) The introduction of the whole process of cost consulting.

4.5 Completion Stage

Because the building project is still in the construction stage, not completed. Therefore, it is
recommended that in the construction stage, the investment department commissioned by the third-
party auditing company to carry out the audit of the reasonableness of the architectural design budget,
the implementation of the project budget estimates, the implementation of the contract and the
completion of the final accounts, etc., to review the use of construction funds, so as to achieve the
timely discovery of cost risks, timely and reasonable solutions. At the same time, according to past
experience, the effect of the audit is far worse than the whole process of control at the beginning, with
the same cost; it is better to intervene in advance, and the earlier, the better. At the same time,
according to past experience, the effect of the audit is far worse than the beginning of the whole
process of control, the same cost, rather than early intervention, and the earlier the intervention, the
better. as the government to exercise the business function of the construction site, should be in the
future of government investment projects, as soon as possible to realize the whole process of audit
intervention.

5 Conclusion

This study demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of Building Information Modeling (BIM)
technology in the whole process of cost management of construction projects through in-depth
analysis and application of the technology. The results of the study show that BIM technology not
only improves the quality of construction cost management but also significantly enhances the
accuracy and practicality of risk assessment.

Firstly, the understanding of green building experts on construction risk and its influence was
confirmed by analyzing 72 valid questionnaires; 35% of the expert team had more than 10 years of
green building experience, which showed the reliability of the research results, and the quality of the
risk assessment data was verified by the reliability test, which ensured the rigorousness of the study.

Secondly, the BIM-based project cost risk model comprehensively analyzes the management
elements of BIM and IPD, and in the three case projects, multiple technical and management elements,
including schematic design, construction drawing design, etc., are applied, which confirms the
effectiveness of BIM in improving the efficiency of project management.

Importantly, the study establishes a comprehensive engineering cost risk evaluation index system,
including five primary indicators and 24 secondary indicators, and carefully evaluates the engineering
cost risk by using the AHP and gray clustering evaluation model, especially in a mixed-use project in
Xiamen, which demonstrates the feasibility of the model in actual project management.
20 Xiufang Li, Xiaorui Jia and Mingqiang Huang. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1) (2024) 1-21

Finally, the study proposes risk management strategies for different phases, including design
standards, construction drawing budget review, design estimate review in the design phase,
engineering change control in the construction phase, engineering contract execution, etc. These
strategies are of great significance in reducing risks and improving the efficiency of cost management.

Acknowledgement

1. This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province: Research on
Cost Risks and Response Mechanisms of Construction Projects Based on BIM Technology
(2020J01279).

2. This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province: Quantitative
Analysis of Life-cycle Carbon Emission and Research on Energy-saving and Emission Reduction
Strategies of Fujian Construction Industry under "Dual Carbon" Goal (2023J011440).

3. This research was supported by the Fujian Province Social Science Planning Surface Project:
Study on carbon emission and emission reduction strategies of rural human settlements in Fujian
Province under the background of rural revitalization and dual carbon (FJ2023B054).

4. This research was supported by the Graduate Science and Technology Innovation Program of
Xiamen University of Technology: Analysis of Cost Control Measures in Pre-construction Stage
of Construction Project Based on BIM Technology (YKJCX2023257).

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