LATINFOCUS

CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • April 2024
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
CALENDAR 17
LATIN AMERICA 18
ARGENTINA 19
BRAZIL 35
CHILE 51
COLOMBIA 67
MEXICO 82
PERU 98
VENEZUELA 112
OTHER COUNTRIES 120
BOLIVIA 120
ECUADOR 123
PARAGUAY 131
URUGUAY 134
NOTES 142

Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 16 April 2024
OLIVER REYNOLDS
FORECASTS COLLECTED Until 16.00 CET 15 April 2024
LATIN AMERICA SENIOR ECONOMIST
INFORMATION UPDATED Until 23.59 CET 14 April 2024
NEXT EDITION 14 May 2024 ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE JOAN ARGILAGÓS
Chief Economist Head of Data Solutions Head of Data Analysis

MASSIMO BASSETTI BENCE VÁRADI BORJA VALERO

Senior Economist Development Team Lead Junior Data Analyst
ALMANAS STANAPEDIS MAR LOBATO PAU ROMERO
Senior Economist Data Quality Coordinator Research Assistant
MARTA CASANOVAS PAOLA TIRANZONI ANTONI CRESPI
Economist Data Solutions Specialist Research Assistant
MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM JAN LEYVA ALINA PETRYK
Economist Junior Data Scientist Partnerships Manager
MAGDALENA PRESHLENOVA ALBERT NAVARRO
Economist Junior Data Scientist
ADRIÀ SOLANES CRISTÓBAL BASCUÑÁN
Economist Junior Data Scientist
AFONSO ALVES MONTEIRO MARTA OLIVA
Economist Junior Data Analyst
HANNAH TAYLOR ALEXANDER RITUERTO
Senior Content Editor Junior Data Analyst
 Summary
Summary April 2024

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
World 6.3 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 4.0 8.0 6.1 5.5 3.6
United States 5.8 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.7 4.7 8.0 4.1 2.9 2.4
Euro Area 5.9 3.5 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 2.1
China 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.6 4.4 0.9 2.0 0.2 0.9 1.7
Japan 2.6 1.0 1.9 0.7 1.1 -0.2 2.5 3.2 2.3 1.6
Latin America 7.2 3.9 2.2 1.6 2.3 10.0 15.5 18.1 27.6 11.0
Chile 11.3 2.1 0.2 2.2 2.3 4.5 11.6 7.6 3.6 3.1
Mexico 5.7 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.9 5.7 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6
Mercosur 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 2.3 16.9 24.0 32.8 56.8 20.3
Argentina 10.7 5.0 -1.6 -3.1 3.4 48.4 72.4 133.5 272.3 83.0
Brazil 4.8 3.0 2.9 1.8 2.0 8.3 9.3 4.6 3.9 3.7
Paraguay 4.0 0.2 4.7 3.7 3.6 4.8 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.7
Uruguay 5.6 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 7.7 9.1 5.9 5.4 5.7
Venezuela 0.5 11.8 2.0 4.3 3.8 1,589 186.7 337.2 108.1 89.5
Andean Com. 11.2 5.4 0.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 7.9 7.9 4.4 3.3
Bolivia 6.1 3.6 2.4 1.8 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.6
Colombia 10.8 7.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.5 10.2 11.7 6.4 4.0
Ecuador 9.8 6.2 2.4 1.0 1.7 0.1 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.9
Peru 13.4 2.7 -0.6 2.4 2.7 4.0 7.9 6.3 2.8 2.5
Centam & Carib. 7.6 4.7 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.9 7.6 4.3 2.9 3.1

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
World -6.2 -3.8 -4.5 -4.4 -4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -12.1 -5.4 -6.3 -6.2 -6.3 -3.5 -3.8 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9
Euro Area -5.2 -3.6 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 2.7 -0.7 1.6 2.0 2.1
China -3.8 -4.7 -4.6 -4.9 -4.7 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Japan -6.1 -5.9 -5.1 -4.1 -3.1 3.9 2.0 3.6 3.6 3.5
Latin America -4.1 -3.5 -5.3 -4.8 -4.0 -1.9 -2.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.4
Chile -7.7 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -7.3 -8.7 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5
Mexico -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -4.8 -3.7 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7
Mercosur -4.1 -4.3 -7.7 -5.7 -5.0 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.4
Argentina -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -1.5 -1.0 1.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.5
Brazil -4.3 -4.6 -8.9 -7.0 -6.2 -2.8 -2.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9
Paraguay -3.6 -2.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.9 -0.9 -7.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8
Uruguay -3.6 -3.2 -3.7 -3.0 -3.1 -2.4 -3.9 -3.6 -2.4 -2.2
Venezuela -4.6 -6.0 -5.5 -5.6 -4.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.9
Andean Com. -4.8 -3.4 -3.8 -3.9 -3.4 -2.7 -3.9 -0.9 -1.8 -2.1
Bolivia -9.3 -7.1 -7.5 -7.3 -7.0 2.6 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9
Colombia -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -4.9 -4.0 -5.6 -6.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.4
Ecuador -1.6 0.0 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3 2.9 1.8 1.9 0.4 -0.2
Peru -2.5 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -2.2 -4.0 0.6 -0.7 -0.9
Centam & Carib. -3.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -1.2 -2.2 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

 Summary April 2024

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

Latin American GDP growth will likely be the weakest among all
world regions this year on political and policy uncertainty, high
levels of crime and corruption and a general lack of economic
competitiveness versus other emerging markets. However,
sizable interest rate cuts, lower inflation vs 2023 in most of the
region and nearshoring investment will provide support.

This year, President Milei’s macroeconomic adjustment plan for

sustained fiscal tightening, currency devaluation and the removal
of price controls will take its toll on the economy. A strong rebound
in agricultural output will partly mitigate the slump. Parliamentary
support for the government’s reforms and social unrest are key
factors to watch.

Economic growth will cool from 2023 this year owing to slowdowns
in both private consumption—on the delayed impact of tight
monetary policy—and exports. A rebound in fixed investment
will lend support to growth, however. Extreme weather, the
government’s fiscal stance and October’s local elections—
particularly their impact on reform—are key factors to monitor.

Our Consensus is for Chile’s economy to grow faster than the

Latin American average this year. Aggressive interest rate cuts
and lower inflation will buttress domestic demand, while an
expected rebound in copper output—following five straight years
of contraction—should boost exports. Progress on government
efforts to lift pensions and taxes are key factors to watch.

GDP growth will accelerate this year from 2023’s moderation;

lower inflation and interest rates will benefit private consumption.
However, the government’s interventionist agenda will discourage
private investment, capping the recovery. Downside risks include
political instability, social unrest and a resurgence in organized
crime and violence.

GDP growth should stay above the Latin American average

this year, supported by a higher minimum wage, nearshoring
investment and brisk government spending ahead of the June
elections. However, the completion of large infrastructure projects
will drag on fixed investment. The U.S. economy is a key risk
factor, as it shapes trade and remittances.

GDP should return to growth this year. Lower inflation and interest
rates, rising real wages and recovering mining activity will fuel
consumer spending and investment activity. That said, weaker
export growth—partly due to a lackluster Chinese economy—will
limit the external sector’s contribution. Downside risks include the
El Niño weather event and social unrest.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

 Summary April 2024

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

Inflation fell in March from February in Brazil, Chile, Colombia,

Peru and Uruguay, rose in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and
Paraguay, and was stable in Mexico. Regional inflation should
increase on average this year from 2023, mainly due to a more-
than-doubling of inflation in Argentina; most other countries will
see lower average inflation in 2024 versus 2023.

Inflation rose to 287.9% in March (February: 276.2%), although

the monthly increase in consumer prices slowed for the third
month running. This year, inflation will remain high on the removal
of price controls and the narrowing gap between the official and
parallel FX rates. Fiscal tightening, money supply growth and any
changes to the exchange-rate regime will be key.

In March, inflation waned to a nine-month low of 3.9% (February:

4.5%), moving closer to the mid-point of the BCB’s 1.5–4.5%
target band. Similarly, core inflation fell to a near three-year low of
4.3% (February: 4.7%). Inflation is set to average below 2023 this
year but remain above the mid-point of the BCB’s target range on
lower interest rates and an expansionary fiscal stance.

Inflation came in at 3.7% in March, down from February’s 4.5%

and moving back within the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target
range. March’s figure represented the weakest inflation rate since
May 2021. Moreover, the month-on-month price rise was a third
below market expectations. Inflation should average within the
target range this year amid lower average commodity prices.

Inflation fell to an over two-year low of 7.4% in March (February:

7.7%). Similarly, core inflation receded to 7.6% (February: 8.1%).
Disinflation will continue through Q4, although average inflation
will remain above the Central Bank (BanRep)’s 2.0–4.0% target
range. The performance of the peso is a two-sided risk; planned
fiscal stimulus is an upside risk.

Inflation was unchanged at 4.4% in March from February, slightly

below market expectations but still above the Central Bank’s
2.0%–4.0% target range. Our Consensus is for inflation to
average marginally above target in the remainder of the year due
to elevated growth in wages and government spending.

Inflation fell to 3.0% in March from February’s 3.3%, entering the

Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range. The reading was mainly
driven by a softer increase in food prices. Inflation will average
lower this year than last on the delayed effects of past interest
rate hikes. A looser-than-expected fiscal stance and the recent
pension drawdown pose upside risks.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2024. Forecasts refer to AOP.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

 Summary April 2024

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

Multiple central banks continued to cut interest rates over the last
month in the face of moderating price pressures. Despite rising
annual inflation, Argentina’s monetary authority chopped its policy
rate by 20 basis points in March on lower monthly inflation and a
stable peso. Central banks are forecast to ease monetary policy
further by end-2024.

At its 11 March meeting, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)

decided to cut the 1-day reverse repo rate to 80.00% from
100.00%. A slowdown in monthly inflation and a recovery of
depleted net reserves were behind the decision. Our panelists
expect the BCRA to cut rates further this year while attempting to
avoid monetary financing of the fiscal deficit.

At its 19–20 March meeting, the BCB extended its loosening

cycle, slashing the benchmark SELIC rate by 50 basis points to
10.75%. The BCB hinted that, if its baseline scenario materialized,
it would again cut rates by 50 basis points when it convenes next
on 7–8 May. Our panelists see 75–275 basis points of additional
cuts this year.

On 2 April, Chile’s Central Bank cut the monetary policy rate from
7.25% to 6.50%, aiming to boost economic activity amid falling
inflation. Rates have now been cut by 475 basis points over the
last year. With inflation expectations anchored at 3.0%, around
200 basis points of additional cuts are anticipated by end-2024,
according to our Consensus.

At its 22 March meeting, BanRep accelerated the pace of its

loosening cycle: It slashed the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis
points—in line with market expectations—to 12.25%. The bigger
cut was driven by the continued deceleration of inflation through
February. Our panelists see 150–625 basis points of additional
cuts this year. The next meeting is set for 30 April.

On 21 March, Banxico cut the overnight rate from 11.25% to

11.00%, driven by falling core inflation and the Bank’s expectations
of continued disinflation. Our panel anticipates around an
additional 175 basis-point cut this year, supported by monetary
easing by the U.S. Fed and given that interest rates in Mexico are
still at historically high levels.

At its 11 April meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut its
key policy interest rate from 6.25% to 6.00%. The decision was
driven by recent falls in both headline and core inflation, as well as
marginally lower inflation expectations. Our panel sees the Bank
delivering further rate cuts ahead as inflation continues to ease.

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

 Summary April 2024

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

In the last month, the currencies of Argentina, Brazil, and Peru

depreciated against the USD, those of Colombia and Mexico
depreciated and Chile’s peso was stable. Latin American
currencies will weaken year-on-year against the USD by end-
2024. This will be largely due to regional rate cuts being more
pronounced than those of the Fed.

The peso traded at ARS 866.7 per USD on 12 April, depreciating

2.1% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at ARS
1,005 per USD on 12 April, appreciating 1.5% month on month.
Therefore, the gap between the official and parallel exchange
rates narrowed further from the prior month. The peso should
weaken from current levels ahead.

The real traded at BRL 5.14 per USD on 12 April, depreciating 3.1%
month on month. The BCB’s loosening cycle and expectations of
a delay in the first U.S. Fed cut likely weighed on the currency.
The BRL should regain some ground on the USD by end-2024.
The country’s fiscal performance is a factor to watch amid market
concerns over high public debt and a large budget deficit.

The peso traded at CLP 963 per USD on 12 April, unchanged

month on month. Looking ahead, our panelists expect the CLP to
appreciate from its current level by end-2024 thanks to eventual
rate cuts by the Fed, though the currency will remain vulnerable
to swings in prices for copper—Chile’s key merchandise exports.

The peso traded at COP 3,820 per USD on 12 April, appreciating

2.3% month on month. Despite recent gains, our panelists expect
the peso to gradually weaken from current levels against the dollar
through the end of 2024. Depreciatory pressure will stem from a
narrowing positive interest rate differential with the U.S. Fed and
widening fiscal and current account deficits.

The peso traded at MXN 16.73 per USD on 12 April, appreciating

0.6% month on month. Strong remittances, goods exports and
inbound tourism likely supported the peso. Our panelists expect
the peso to depreciate versus the dollar from current levels by
end-2024, as Banxico is projected to cut rates by more than the
Fed.

The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 12 April, depreciating

0.5% month on month. The PEN is expected to lose some
ground against the USD by end-2024 due to the BCRP’s rate
cuts. Stronger-than-expected copper prices and production pose
appreciatory risks, while social instability poses a depreciatory
risk. The interest rate differential with the U.S. is a key factor to
watch.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive
number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

 News in Focus
Summary April 2024

News in Focus
ARGENTINA: GDP slides at a more pronounced pace in Q4
GDP contracted at a steeper pace of 1.4% year on year in Q4,
below the 0.8% contraction logged in the third quarter. On a ARGENTINA | Consumer Price Index
seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity
contracted 1.9% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s 2.2% expansion.

ARGENTINA: Monthly inflation falls again in March

Inflation rose to 287.9% in March from February’s 276.2%. That
said, consumer prices increased 11.01% in March over the
previous month, below February’s 13.24% rise. March’s result
marked the weakest reading since October 2023.

BRAZIL: Economic activity growth eases in January

The Brazilian economy kicked off 2024 on softer footing: Economic
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
activity grew 0.6% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
in January (December: +0.8% s.a. mom). Nevertheless, January’s
result overshot market expectations.
BRAZIL | Economic Activity
BRAZIL: Bank delivers sixth 50 basis point reduction in
March
At its 19–20 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of
the Central Bank of Brazil extended its loosening cycle, slashing
the benchmark SELIC rate by a further 50 basis points to 10.75%.

CHILE: Economic activity records quickest growth since May

2022 in February
Economic activity increased 4.5% compared to the same month
a year earlier in February, which was above January’s 2.3%
increase and triple market expectations. The notable upturn came
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
on the back of faster expansions in the mining and non-mining Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and year-on-year changes in %.
sectors. Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

COLOMBIA: Economic activity growth gains momentum in

January
MEXICO | Merchandise Trade
Economic activity grew 1.6% year on year in January (December:
+0.1% yoy). Looking at the details of the release, January’s upturn
was largely due to pickups in the agriculture and services sectors.

MEXICO: Merchandise exports increase in February

Merchandise exports soared 13.0% year-on-year in February
(January: -1.5% year-on-year). February’s result was driven by
higher oil and non-oil exports. Within non-oil exports, car exports
to the U.S. saw particularly strong growth.

PERU: Economic activity records quickest growth since

November 2022 in January Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %.
Economic activity rose 1.4% compared to the same month a Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
year earlier in January, contrasting December’s 0.7% decrease.
January’s result marked the best reading since November 2022.
The notable improvement was largely driven by an improvement
in the commerce sector.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |7

 Summary April 2024

Population, millions Population, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 619 625 630 635 640 645 651
Chile 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5
Mexico 130 131 132 133 134 135 136
Mercosur 260 262 264 266 267 269 271
Argentina 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.1
Brazil 203 204 205 206 208 209 210
Paraguay 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1
Uruguay 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela 26.9 26.5 26.5 - - - -
Andean Com. 116 117 118 120 121 122 124
Bolivia 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0
Colombia 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3 54.8
Ecuador 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6
Peru 34.2 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 35.9 36.3
Centam & Carib. 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.4 98.4 99.5

Notes and sources

Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GDP, USD billions GDP, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5,809 6,509 6,838 7,183 7,640 8,065 8,561
Chile 302 335 323 351 383 407 440
Mexico 1,464 1,790 1,906 1,958 2,070 2,159 2,261
Mercosur 2,694 2,935 3,056 3,243 3,449 3,674 3,923
Argentina 630 642 601 676 755 819 891
Brazil 1,952 2,173 2,325 2,430 2,550 2,705 2,875
Paraguay 41.8 42.9 46.5 49.1 52.4 55.5 58.6
Uruguay 70.1 77.2 83.0 87.6 92.4 94.8 98.2
Venezuela 97 101 108 113 - - -
Andean Com. 751 796 873 919 982 1,030 1,098
Bolivia 44.1 45.7 47.5 49.3 49.5 51.5 54.3
Colombia 345 364 424 449 492 515 558
Ecuador 116.6 118.8 123.7 127.7 133.0 138.2 143.7
Peru 245 268 278 293 308 325 342
Centam & Carib. 598 653 679 713 756 794 838

Notes and sources

Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |8

 Summary April 2024

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 3.9 2.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Chile 2.1 0.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6
Mexico 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3
Mercosur 3.5 1.9 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
Argentina 5.0 -1.6 -3.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.6
Brazil 3.0 2.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Paraguay 0.2 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Uruguay 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Venezuela 11.8 2.0 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7
Andean Com. 5.4 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9
Bolivia 3.6 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5
Colombia 7.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0
Ecuador 6.2 2.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3
Peru 2.7 -0.6 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.0
Centam & Carib. 4.7 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.0

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 9,380 10,420 10,857 11,312 11,935 12,497 13,160
Chile 15,235 16,805 16,083 17,393 18,857 19,910 21,431
Mexico 11,250 13,641 14,408 14,679 15,407 15,954 16,588
Mercosur 10,348 11,197 11,584 12,213 12,910 13,666 14,502
Argentina 13,606 13,728 12,733 14,172 15,669 16,828 18,131
Brazil 9,615 10,640 11,323 11,770 12,285 12,967 13,712
Paraguay 5,610 5,674 6,080 6,335 6,666 6,972 7,262
Uruguay 19,720 21,636 23,192 24,408 25,667 26,257 27,129
Venezuela 3,603 3,788 4,078 - - - -
Andean Com. 6,488 6,799 7,380 7,683 8,120 8,423 8,878
Bolivia 3,686 3,771 3,869 3,956 3,914 4,018 4,170
Colombia 6,692 6,972 8,054 8,445 9,150 9,498 10,183
Ecuador 6,475 6,509 6,681 6,803 6,986 7,160 7,341
Peru 7,169 7,755 7,971 8,318 8,665 9,052 9,427
Centam & Carib. 6,410 6,922 7,128 7,398 7,761 8,069 8,426

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |9

 Summary April 2024

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5.3 2.7 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4
Chile 1.6 -5.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5
Mexico 5.2 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
Mercosur 5.4 2.7 0.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Argentina 9.7 1.1 -5.9 4.1 2.9 2.6 2.6
Brazil 4.1 3.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Paraguay 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5
Uruguay 5.7 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.1
Venezuela 10.0 1.9 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.9
Andean Com. 7.4 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8
Bolivia 3.4 2.2 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.7
Colombia 10.7 1.1 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.0
Ecuador 7.4 1.4 0.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4
Peru 3.6 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8
Centam & Carib. 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5.3 3.9 1.7 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2
Chile 3.9 -1.1 0.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7
Mexico 7.7 19.4 4.6 1.8 3.1 3.0 3.3
Mercosur 3.7 -2.9 0.0 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.1
Argentina 11.1 -1.9 -10.0 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.4
Brazil 1.1 -3.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.4
Paraguay -1.8 -3.5 3.9 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.7
Uruguay 11.8 -7.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.5
Venezuela 20.6 3.3 4.0 3.4 2.4 2.3 3.1
Andean Com. 7.3 -5.7 0.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5
Bolivia 5.6 3.2 2.4 1.6 - - -
Colombia 11.5 -8.9 -0.5 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.5
Ecuador 8.5 0.5 -0.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8
Peru 1.0 -5.6 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7
Centam & Carib. 5.4 6.1 4.0 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.3

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

 Summary April 2024

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 2.3 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3
Chile -4.6 -0.4 1.5 - - - -
Mexico 5.3 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2
Mercosur 0.5 -0.2 0.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
Argentina 4.2 -1.8 -4.5 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.8
Brazil -0.7 0.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
Uruguay 3.6 0.6 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.5 -
Venezuela 13.6 3.3 5.5 3.1 - - -
Andean Com. 6.6 -5.7 1.3 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.3
Colombia 10.6 -4.9 0.1 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.0
Peru 1.0 -6.8 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile,

Colombia, Peru and Uruguay refers to manufacturing. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 7.2 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3
Chile 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.3
Mexico 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
Mercosur 8.8 7.6 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.3
Argentina 6.8 6.1 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.3 6.9
Brazil 9.5 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.5
Paraguay 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
Uruguay 7.9 8.3 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9
Venezuela 34.3 34.3 33.7 31.7 30.9 29.6 24.3
Andean Com. 8.6 7.8 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.0 -
Bolivia 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 - - -
Colombia 11.2 10.2 10.5 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8
Ecuador 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 -
Peru 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.4
Centam & Carib. 7.2 6.1 6.6 6.7 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes

in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 11

 Summary April 2024

Public Debt, % of GDP Public Debt, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 61.1 65.7 63.6 63.3 63.8 64.1 64.6
Chile 37.5 38.9 40.7 41.5 40.8 40.4 39.8
Mexico 48.3 47.5 50.6 50.8 52.0 52.2 52.4
Mercosur 74.3 86.6 79.5 79.1 79.6 80.1 80.7
Argentina 85.2 133.2 92.2 76.5 73.2 69.7 69.1
Brazil 71.7 74.4 77.4 79.8 81.5 83.3 84.2
Paraguay 40.8 40.1 40.6 - - - -
Uruguay 68.2 69.0 68.8 - - - -
Andean Com. 52.0 49.7 51.4 52.1 51.9 51.9 51.3
Bolivia 80.0 83.8 86.6 87.3 92.8 94.2 92.0
Colombia 60.8 57.2 59.1 59.8 58.7 58.6 58.0
Ecuador 53.5 51.4 51.2 53.2 53.9 54.4 -
Peru 33.8 32.9 33.8 34.0 33.6 33.5 34.0
Centam & Carib. 54.3 51.6 52.6 52.1 50.9 49.8 49.1

Notes and sources

Note: Public debt as % GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and IMF.

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -3.5 -5.3 -4.8 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.4
Chile 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3
Mexico -3.2 -3.3 -4.8 -3.7 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8
Mercosur -4.3 -7.7 -5.7 -5.0 -4.7 -4.5 -4.3
Argentina -3.8 -4.4 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0
Brazil -4.6 -8.9 -7.0 -6.2 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
Paraguay -2.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Uruguay -3.2 -3.7 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -2.5 -2.2
Venezuela -6.0 -5.5 -5.6 -4.8 - - -
Andean Com. -3.4 -3.8 -3.9 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.8
Bolivia -7.1 -7.5 -7.3 -7.0 -6.5 -5.9 -5.8
Colombia -5.3 -4.3 -4.9 -4.0 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2
Ecuador 0.0 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8
Peru -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3
Centam & Carib. -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.1

Notes and sources

Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.

Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: General government.
Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and IMF.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 12

 Summary April 2024

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 15.5 18.1 27.6 11.0 7.4 5.5 4.8
Chile 11.6 7.6 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
Mexico 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
Mercosur 24.0 32.8 56.8 20.3 12.4 8.2 6.7
Argentina 72.4 133.5 272.3 83.0 43.6 24.5 17.7
Brazil 9.3 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Paraguay 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Uruguay 9.1 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.7
Venezuela 186.7 337.2 108.1 89.5 60.9 51.7 52.6
Andean Com. 7.9 7.9 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.7
Bolivia 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.6
Colombia 10.2 11.7 6.4 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.1
Ecuador 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Peru 7.9 6.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4
Centam & Carib. 7.6 4.3 2.9 3.1 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Average-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 18.91 20.11 13.40 10.66 9.38 8.23 7.36
Chile 11.25 8.25 4.63 4.21 4.31 4.33 4.20
Mexico 10.50 11.25 9.38 7.42 7.00 6.96 6.88
Mercosur 27.92 30.91 19.52 15.46 12.92 10.62 8.86
Argentina 75.00 100.00 62.39 41.53 29.17 19.00 11.38
Brazil 13.75 11.75 9.13 8.69 8.49 8.20 8.16
Paraguay 8.50 6.75 5.38 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Uruguay 11.25 9.25 8.21 7.80 7.08 - -
Andean Com. 10.13 10.35 6.87 5.11 4.66 4.79 4.77
Colombia 12.00 13.00 8.21 5.78 5.11 5.32 5.23
Peru 7.50 6.75 4.83 4.09 3.94 3.94 4.04
Centam & Carib. 6.35 5.64 4.64 4.09 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: One-day reverse repo rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: Monetary policy rate.
Sources: National central banks

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 13

 Summary April 2024

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Exchange Rates versus USD, 2024
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -2.3 1.0 -7.8 -4.8 -3.0 -2.1 -0.2
Chile 0.0 -2.4 -3.7 1.7 0.9 -1.8 1.8
Mexico 5.0 15.1 -5.5 -3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -0.2
Mercosur -5.6 -10.6 -11.5 -8.0 -5.3 -2.6 -0.4
Argentina -42.0 -78.1 -47.8 -31.4 -20.4 -11.1 1.3
Brazil 5.5 8.7 -2.6 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 -0.8
Paraguay -6.2 1.1 -1.6 -1.3 -1.9 -1.2 -1.3
Uruguay 12.7 1.6 -3.3 -4.3 -4.7 -1.5 -3.0
Andean Com. -7.6 15.1 -3.7 -0.4 0.3 -1.8 -0.3
Bolivia -0.3 0.2 -2.4 -3.9 -11.0 -1.0 -1.0
Colombia -17.2 25.9 -5.3 -0.5 1.3 -2.7 -0.4
Peru 4.6 3.0 -1.4 0.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.1
Centam & Carib. -0.2 2.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.4 -1.6 -0.3

Notes and sources

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
On 1 October 2021, authorities in Venezuela removed six zeros from
the currency. As a result, the figures have been temporarily removed
from the table.
Sources: Central banks and Macrobond Financial AB.

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -2.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Chile -8.7 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4
Mexico -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8
Mercosur -2.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4
Argentina -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2
Brazil -2.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9
Paraguay -7.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2.1
Uruguay -3.9 -3.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3
Venezuela 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 - -
Andean Com. -3.9 -0.9 -1.8 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2
Bolivia -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -2.7 -1.6 -1.4
Colombia -6.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ecuador 1.8 1.9 0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -1.4 0.1
Peru -4.0 0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4
Centam & Carib. -2.2 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 14

 Summary April 2024

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 17.3 -2.5 5.3 3.8 5.0 5.0 6.9
Chile 4.2 -4.1 3.7 3.1 4.9 2.4 2.6
Mexico 16.7 2.6 6.6 4.9 4.9 5.0 3.8
Mercosur 17.1 -4.2 4.9 3.5 5.3 5.6 9.8
Argentina 13.5 -24.5 21.1 6.2 4.0 4.6 4.2
Brazil 19.0 1.7 0.3 2.8 5.7 5.9 11.8
Paraguay -3.1 15.5 5.9 5.0 2.5 5.4 2.3
Uruguay 7.5 -11.5 14.3 3.0 5.0 4.5 3.9
Venezuela 46.9 -3.1 20.0 0.8 -0.3 2.3 0.9
Andean Com. 24.5 -6.4 4.1 2.2 4.4 3.9 6.8
Bolivia 21.5 -15.1 1.3 1.9 -1.5 5.1 3.8
Colombia 39.2 -11.7 7.1 2.9 5.0 3.6 9.1
Ecuador 22.5 -4.7 -0.7 -1.9 1.0 3.4 3.9
Peru 5.2 1.5 2.1 3.1 6.0 4.5 4.7
Centam & Carib. 17.6 -3.6 6.2 4.5 4.5 5.6 3.5

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 23.0 -7.8 4.8 5.4 5.6 5.1 7.0
Chile 12.5 -16.4 6.3 5.2 3.7 3.1 2.7
Mexico 19.6 -1.0 7.9 4.2 5.2 5.2 4.1
Mercosur 25.2 -10.8 1.9 7.0 6.8 5.5 10.6
Argentina 29.0 -9.6 -13.2 12.1 10.2 6.3 5.7
Brazil 24.2 -11.7 5.4 5.7 5.9 5.2 12.4
Paraguay 17.1 -0.5 5.9 6.8 2.3 5.6 4.0
Uruguay 20.8 -4.1 8.2 3.1 6.9 4.6 4.0
Venezuela 42.6 -5.0 14.0 8.5 -9.1 2.5 0.7
Andean Com. 23.8 -12.5 7.0 3.3 5.3 4.5 3.9
Bolivia 35.6 -7.1 0.9 0.8 -0.2 2.1 3.9
Colombia 26.3 -17.1 8.0 3.8 5.5 3.8 2.6
Ecuador 27.2 -4.0 3.1 0.4 3.7 3.7 -0.3
Peru 16.5 -10.8 8.2 4.2 6.4 6.3 7.7
Centam & Carib. 27.1 -1.5 6.2 4.0 2.4 5.3 3.7

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 15

 Summary April 2024

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 9.0 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8
Chile 5.0 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5
Mexico 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9
Mercosur 12.4 14.4 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.9 13.4
Argentina 6.6 3.8 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.3
Brazil 14.3 17.7 17.2 16.7 16.2 15.9 15.3
Paraguay 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.0 - - -
Uruguay 13.4 15.0 14.3 14.5 13.9 13.9 13.9
Venezuela 9.0 9.4 8.4 8.0 9.0 8.9 -
Andean Com. 10.6 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 12.8
Colombia 9.6 12.0 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.9 9.9
Ecuador 3.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.0 -
Peru 15.5 17.2 16.5 16.5 17.1 16.9 17.7
Centam & Carib. 5.8 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.9

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 37.9 35.2 34.3 33.6 - - -
Chile 76.1 71.8 74.8 72.2 - - -
Mexico 39.8 33.2 31.9 32.7 30.3 29.7 29.0
Mercosur 25.0 24.1 23.1 22.3 - - -
Argentina 43.9 44.5 46.9 42.3 38.7 36.4 34.1
Brazil 16.4 15.7 14.6 14.2 - - -
Paraguay 58.6 61.7 59.1 58.5 56.8 55.4 54.4
Uruguay 76.1 67.3 69.8 70.7 - - -
Venezuela 113.4 130.3 127.3 - - - -
Andean Com. 47.9 47.8 46.0 45.6 - - -
Bolivia 36.1 40.2 41.4 41.9 50.1 54.0 57.9
Colombia 53.2 54.0 49.4 49.8 48.1 48.4 47.4
Ecuador 49.4 50.6 50.1 - - - -
Peru 41.8 39.5 40.0 39.7 - - -
Centam & Carib. 66.5 63.0 62.7 61.8 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 16

 Economic Release Calendar
Calendar April 2024

Date Country Event

18 April Argentina March Merchandise Trade
Brazil February Economic Activity
Colombia February Economic Activity
20 April Argentina April Consumer Confidence (E)
21 April Peru February Economic Activity
22 April Mexico February Economic Activity
23 April Argentina February Economic Activity
25 April Brazil March Balance of Payments
26 April Mexico March Merchandise Trade
28 April Brazil April Economic Sentiment (E)
30 April Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Mexico Q1 2024 National Accounts (P)
Uruguay February Economic Activity
1 May Chile April Business Confidence (E)
2 May Brazil April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Chile March Economic Activity
Colombia April Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Mexico April IMEF PMI
3 May Uruguay April Consumer Prices
5 May Brazil April S&P Global Services PMI
Peru April Consumer Prices
7 May Colombia April Consumer Confidence
8 May Argentina March Industrial Production
Brazil Central Bank Meeting
Chile April Consumer Prices
Colombia April Consumer Prices
9 May Mexico April Consumer Prices
Mexico Central Bank Meeting
10 May Brazil April Consumer Prices

(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 17

 Latin Americ Latin America April 2024

Latin America
Regional GDP growth to be tepid this year
Economic overview: Latin America’s economy grew just 1.6% in annual
terms in Q4, around half the global average and over a quarter below the
region’s 10-year pre-pandemic average; high interest rates and inflation,
as well as political and policy uncertainty, constrained momentum. The
economies of Argentina, Ecuador and Peru all shrank in Q4, while most
remaining economies saw growth in the 0–2.5% range. Turning to Q1 of this
year, our Consensus is for regional growth to slow further. This will mainly
be the result of a sharper contraction in Argentina amid tough spending
cuts and surging inflation. Among other major regional economies, Brazil,
Colombia and Mexico should all see softer GDP expansions. The slowdown
Oliver Reynolds in Brazil will come as a result of a tough base effect, given that the economy
Economist was buoyed in Q1 last year by a record harvest.

GDP outlook: Latin American GDP growth will likely be the weakest among
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages all world regions this year on political and policy uncertainty, high levels of
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 crime and corruption and a general lack of economic competitiveness versus
GDP growth (%): 1.5 2.0 2.4 other emerging markets. However, sizable interest rate cuts, lower inflation
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -4.7 -3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 64.3 64.2 64.2 vs 2023 in most of the region and nearshoring investment will provide
Inflation (%): 10.6 18.9 5.9 support. Our panelists see Latin America GDP expanding 1.6% in 2024,
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.5 -1.3 -1.4
unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.3% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation fell in March from February in Brazil, Chile, Colombia,

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Peru and Uruguay, rose in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay, and
was stable in Mexico. Regional inflation should increase on average this
year from 2023, mainly due to a more-than-doubling of inflation in Argentina;
most other countries will see lower average inflation in 2024 versus 2023.
Our panelists see Latin America consumer prices rising 27.6% on average in
2024, down by 0.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 11.0%
on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: Multiple central banks continued to cut interest rates over
the last month in the face of moderating price pressures. Despite rising
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
annual inflation, Argentina’s monetary authority chopped its policy rate
by 20 basis points in March on lower monthly inflation and a stable peso.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
Central banks are forecast to ease monetary policy further by end-2024.
Our panelists see the aggregate policy rate in Latin America ending 2024 at
13.40% and ending 2025 at 10.66%.

Currency: In the last month, the currencies of Argentina, Brazil, and Peru
depreciated against the USD, those of Colombia and Mexico depreciated
and Chile’s peso was stable. Latin American currencies will weaken year-
on-year against the USD by end-2024. This will be largely due to regional
rate cuts being more pronounced than those of the Fed. Our panelists see
regional currencies depreciating 7.8% on aggregate against the USD in
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 2024 and depreciating 4.8% in 2025.
variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 18

 Argentina April 2024

Argentina
Near-term economic pain amid policy changes
Economic overview: GDP dived 1.9% sequentially in Q4 2023, contrasting
Q3’s 2.2% expansion, hit by hyperinflation, a plunging peso and sky-high
interest rates. According to our panel, the pace of quarter-on-quarter
contraction intensified in Q1 2024 amid President Milei’s macroeconomic
adjustment plan. In January, economic activity shrank month on month, as did
industrial production in January−February. Moreover, consumer sentiment
soured notably in January−March from Q4. That said, the government
recorded two consecutive monthly fiscal surpluses in January−February for
the first time in over 12 years, thanks to drastic cuts to public expenditure.
Moreover, month-on-month inflation fell for the third consecutive period
Massimo Bassetti in March—and by more than expected by markets—while the peso has
Senior Economist appreciated by over 20% in the parallel market from late January’s lows
amid improving market sentiment.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: This year, President Milei’s macroeconomic adjustment
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 plan for sustained fiscal tightening, currency devaluation and the removal
GDP growth (%): 1.9 -0.4 2.7 of price controls will take its toll on the economy. A strong rebound in
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -2.3 -1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP): 89.9 100.6 70.7
agricultural output will partly mitigate the slump. Parliamentary support
Inflation (%): 54.3 162.9 28.6 for the government’s reforms and social unrest are key factors to watch.
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.5 -0.7 0.3
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.1% in 2024, which is
down by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 3.4%
in 2025.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
Inflation: Inflation rose to 287.9% in March (February: 276.2%), although
the monthly increase in consumer prices slowed for the third month running.
This year, inflation will remain high on the removal of price controls and the
narrowing gap between the official and parallel FX rates. Fiscal tightening,
money supply growth and any changes to the exchange-rate regime will
be key. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 272.3% on
average in 2024, which is down by 15.4 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 83.0% on average in 2025.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025

2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Monetary policy: At its 11 March meeting, the Central Bank of Argentina
(BCRA) decided to cut the 1-day reverse repo rate to 80.00% from 100.00%.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
A slowdown in monthly inflation and a recovery of depleted net reserves
were behind the decision. Our panelists expect the BCRA to cut rates further
this year while attempting to avoid monetary financing of the fiscal deficit.
FocusEconomics panelists see the 1-day reverse repo rate ending 2024 at
62.39% and ending 2025 at 41.53%.

Currency: The peso traded at ARS 866.7 per USD on 12 April, depreciating
2.1% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at ARS 1,005 per
USD on 12 April, appreciating 1.5% month on month. Therefore, the gap
between the official and parallel exchange rates narrowed further from
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 the prior month. The peso should weaken from current levels ahead.
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at ARS 1549.2 per
USD and ending 2025 at ARS 2257.8 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 19

 Argentina April 2024

REAL SECTOR | GDP slides at a more pronounced pace in Q4

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP contracted at a steeper pace of 1.4% year on year in
the fourth quarter, below the 0.8% contraction logged in the third quarter. On
a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted
1.9% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter’s 2.2% expansion.

Drivers: The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public

spending, fixed investment and exports all contracting.

Private consumption contracted 1.5% in Q4, marking the worst result since
Q4 2020 (Q3: +0.2% yoy). Government spending dropped 3.2% (Q3: +2.1%
yoy), while fixed investment shrank 6.8% in Q4, marking the worst result
since Q3 2020 (Q3: +1.0% yoy). Exports of goods and services fell 6.3%
Note: Year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP in %. on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which was below the third quarter’s
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast. 4.7% contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated,
contracting 1.8% in Q4 (Q3: +2.1% yoy).

GDP outlook: Q1 should register an even sharper sequential drop amid

President Milei’s macroeconomic adjustment plan, as indicated by depressed
consumer sentiment in January-February and falling industrial output in
January. Meanwhile, in January-February, the government recorded two
consecutive first monthly fiscal surpluses, which bodes well for macroeconomic
stability going forward.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the risks surrounding the outlook for 2024,
Credicorp Capital’s analysts stated:

“The year 2024 continues to be fraught with uncertainty, due to the high levels
of inflation at the beginning of the year impacting household purchasing power.
Risks remain tilted to the upside, considering the process of relative prices
adjustment, the characteristic high persistence in the economy, uncertainty
about the dismantling of capital controls, and governance tensions that hinder
fiscal consolidation efforts.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.1%

in 2024, which is down by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 3.4% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Decline in economic activity softens in January

Latest reading: The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % 4.3% in year-on-year terms in January, which was a smaller contraction than
December’s 4.5% decrease. The figure was largely due to an improvement
in the agriculture sector. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector fell at a softer
rate. Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector decreased at a sharper
rate, while transport and communications production contracted at a steeper
pace than in December.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.2% in January, moderating from

December’s 2.8% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual
average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 2.1%, down from
December’s minus 1.5%.

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez
(Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica)
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC). and Diego Ciongo stated:

“We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024, affected by the
expected drop in real wages and the sharp fiscal consolidation plan, but
partially offset by the normalization of the agricultural sector after the severe
drought in 2023.”

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 20

 Argentina April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Industrial activity improves in February

Industrial Production | variation in % Latest reading: Industrial production dropped 9.9% year on year in
February (January: -12.2% yoy). February’s softer drop largely reflected less
pronounced contractions in machinery and equipment, chemical products,
food and beverages output and automotive vehicles production.

On a monthly basis, factory output decreased 0.7% in calendar adjusted terms

in February, a smaller contraction than January’s 1.3% fall. Meanwhile, the
trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production
coming in at minus 3.7% in February, down from January’s minus 3.1%.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production

contracting 4.5% in 2024, which is down by 1.1 percentage points from one
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of industrial production in %. month ago, and expanding 3.9% in 2025.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).

REAL SECTOR | Consumer sentiment ticks up in March

Consumer Confidence Latest reading: The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer
confidence index rose to 36.7 in March from 36.0 in February. However, the
index remained entrenched below the 50-threshold that separates optimism
from pessimism among consumers.

Consumers’ expectations over the general economic conditions in the year

ahead improved, and they grew less pessimistic over their future financial
situations. Conversely, willingness to purchase big ticket items deteriorated.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption

contracting 5.9% in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and expanding 4.1% in 2025.
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation comes in at highest level since our
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
records began
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation rose to 287.9% in March from February’s 276.2%.
March’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since our current records
began.

The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 183.2% in
March (February: 165.9%).

Lastly, consumer prices increased 11.01% in March over the previous month,
below February’s 13.24% rise. March’s result marked the weakest reading
since October 2023.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the reading, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez

and Diego Ciongo stated:
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
“The appreciation of the currency and weaker consumption driven by the sharp
contraction of real wages contributed to slow the monthly rise of inflation at
the margin. We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%, with monthly
headline inflation projected to fall to one digit in April.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

272.3% on average in 2024, which is down by 15.4 percentage points from
one month ago, and rising 83.0% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank delivers sizable rate cut in March

Latest bank decision: At its 11 March meeting, the Central Bank of Argentina
(BCRA) decided to cut the 1-day reverse repo rate to 80.00% from 100.00%.
Moreover, the Bank eliminated the minimum fixed-term deposit rate.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 21

 Argentina April 2024

Monetary Policy Rate | in % Monetary policy drivers: These decisions reflect the Central Bank’s
commitment to navigating economic normalization, enhancing monetary
stability and fostering investor confidence. Following initial price adjustments
in December 2023, there has been a significant slowdown in month-on-month
inflation, while year-on-year inflation is still affected by sizable statistical
carryovers. Retail inflation trends indicate the reduced pass-through effect
of exchange rate fluctuations compared to past experience. Meanwhile,
addressing fiscal deficit monetization has translated into a reduction in
monetary emission in real terms and a consequent improvement in the Central
Bank’s balance sheet. A recovery in depleted net reserves was an additional
driver behind the decision to cut rates.

Note: 7-day LELIQ Rate in %. Policy outlook: The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press
Source: Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (Banco Central de la República
Argentina). release. However, it said it would continue to focus on managing inflation,
enhancing monetary stability and fostering confidence through transparent
policy measures. Most of our panelists expect the BCRA to cut the one-day
reverse repo rate further this year.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, economists at the EIU stated:

“We expect that the BCRA will keep the interest rate negative in real terms in
2024 to shrink the monetary base further. With the monetary base falling to
more normal levels, real interest rates will turn positive from 2025, which will
support the authorities’ efforts to sustain disinflation. Mr Milei made the closure
of the BCRA and the dollarisation of Argentina’s economy a major plank of
his proposed free-market reforms, but our forecasts do not incorporate these
extreme changes.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the 1-day reverse repo rate
ending 2024 at 62.39% and ending 2025 at 41.53%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports increase at a milder pace in

February
Merchandise Trade Latest reading: Merchandise exports increased 5.6% annually in February
(January: +9.6% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports slid 18.6%
over the same month last year in February (January: -14.1% yoy), marking the
weakest reading since December 2022.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month,
recording a USD 1.4 billion surplus in February (January 2024: USD 0.8 billion
surplus; February 2023: USD 0.2 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved,
with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 4.5
billion deficit in February, compared to the USD 5.7 billion deficit in January.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising

Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports 21.1% in 2024, which is down by 0.5 percentage points from one month ago,
in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
and rising 6.2% in 2025.
calculations.
Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 13.2% in 2024, which is down
by 0.7 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 12.1% in 2025.

Our panelists see a trade surplus of USD 16.9 billion in 2024 and a trade
surplus of USD 14.2 billion in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 22

 Argentina April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 44.9 45.4 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.1
GDP per capita (USD) 9,942 8,483 10,625 13,606 13,728 12,733 14,172 15,669 16,828 18,131
GDP (USD bn) 447 385 487 630 642 601 676 755 819 891
GDP (ARS bn) 21,558 27,210 46,346 82,436 189,780 692,094 1.36 mn 2.1 mn 2.63 mn 3.07 mn
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 46.2 26.2 70.3 77.9 130.2 264.7 97.0 54.0 25.4 16.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -2.0 -9.9 10.7 5.0 -1.6 -3.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -6.1 -12.2 10.4 9.7 1.1 -5.9 4.1 2.9 2.6 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -6.4 -2.0 6.3 1.9 1.2 -6.8 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -16.0 -13.1 33.8 11.1 -1.9 -10.0 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.8 -17.4 8.5 5.8 -6.7 11.6 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -18.7 -17.2 20.4 17.9 2.2 -8.1 5.3 5.2 4.4 4.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -6.3 -7.5 15.7 4.2 -1.8 -4.5 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 45.2 45.0 47.9 78.4 144.6 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.8 11.5 8.8 6.8 6.1 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.3 6.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -8.4 -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 89.8 103.9 80.6 85.2 133.2 92.2 76.5 73.2 69.7 69.1
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 29.0 78.9 59.5 67.6 170.6 140.3 89.1 23.0 12.5 14.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 53.8 36.1 50.9 94.8 211.4 190.0 58.0 33.7 18.5 14.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 53.5 42.0 48.4 72.4 133.5 272.3 83.0 43.6 24.5 17.7
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 58.3 42.5 59.1 69.3 135.7 280.2 73.5 22.5 12.3 10.1
1-Day Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 55.00 38.00 38.00 75.00 100.00 62.39 41.53 29.17 19.00 11.38
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 39.44 34.25 34.19 68.81 109.00 58.85 45.71 28.09 15.82 10.86
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 59.9 84.1 102.7 177.1 808.5 1,549 2,258 2,838 3,191 3,150
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 78.50 166.00 208.00 346.00 1,025 1,792 2,509 3,358 3,851 4,153
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 48.25 70.67 95.16 130.86 295.62 1,151 2,017 2,782 3,215 3,449
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 51.84 123.70 170.79 253.52 620.12 1,359 2,150 2,933 3,605 4,002
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 2.7 6.6 -4.3 -21.5 4.2 3.3 3.7 2.6 2.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.8 0.7 1.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 16.0 12.5 14.8 6.9 -6.9 16.9 14.2 10.3 9.4 8.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 65.1 54.9 77.9 88.4 66.8 80.9 85.9 89.4 93.4 97.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 49.1 42.4 63.2 81.5 73.7 64.0 71.8 79.1 84.0 88.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.4 -15.7 42.0 13.5 -24.5 21.1 6.2 4.0 4.6 4.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -25.0 -13.8 49.2 29.0 -9.6 -13.2 12.1 10.2 6.3 5.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.6 4.7 6.8 15.1 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 44.8 39.4 39.7 44.6 23.1 32.8 38.7 44.1 50.1 53.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 11.0 11.2 7.5 6.6 3.8 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.3
External Debt (USD bn) 278 271 267 276 286 282 286 292 298 304
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.3 70.3 54.8 43.9 44.5 46.9 42.3 38.7 36.4 34.1
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.8 -1.4 -5.0 -2.1 -3.9 -0.9 3.6 3.8 4.2 3.7
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 2.2 -1.9 -3.3 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.2 -1.5 -7.4 -6.5 -6.0 -2.2 3.2 4.9 5.0 4.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -3.2 -7.1 -8.3 -8.2 -6.5 -3.7 -0.7 1.3 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 -6.8 -11.1 -13.6 -12.9 -0.2 2.9 6.3 7.7 6.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.7 -6.3 9.6 17.7 16.2 9.9 10.3 8.1 7.7 6.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.1 -1.8 -9.7 -9.4 -6.2 6.4 9.3 8.0 6.5 3.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.7 5.7 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 125.9 172.8 273.5 307.9 299.7 231.8 130.1 91.7 69.3 56.2
1-Day Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 118.00 100.00 80.00 75.63 73.25 69.00 64.38 60.00 60.83 55.00
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 113.88 109.00 70.88 71.54 67.08 60.63 53.80 48.89 42.03 41.35
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 350.0 808.5 857.5 1,137 1,388 1,630 1,795 2,011 2,233 2,431
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 800.00 1,025 1,010 1,354 1,583 1,818 - - - -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -2.2 -2.0 0.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.4 0.9 0.2 0.8
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (EMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.2 2.0 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -2.0 -2.8 -1.2 - -
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) -4.8 -1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.0 -0.9 -4.5 -4.3 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.5 -4.0 -3.1 -3.3 -0.7 -4.9 -12.9 -12.2 -9.9 -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 117.1 111.5 138.3 149.9 166.6 168.4 218.9 248.4 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 41.8 43.6 44.1 43.4 45.1 47.5 39.8 35.6 36.0 36.7
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 5.95 6.34 12.44 12.75 8.30 12.81 25.47 20.61 13.24 11.01
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 115.6 113.4 124.4 138.3 142.7 160.9 211.4 254.2 276.2 287.9
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 256.7 275.3 350.0 350.0 350.0 360.6 808.5 826.2 842.3 857.5
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 489.00 550.00 735.00 800.00 920.00 905.00 1,025 1,195 1,030 1,010
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -35.8 -22.4 -21.6 -23.5 -32.2 -30.9 -13.8 9.6 5.6 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 27.9 24.1 27.8 26.9 22.6 21.5 23.1 27.6 26.7 27.1
Notes: On 18 December, the Central Bank of Argentina switched its benchmark interest rate to the 1-Day Reverse Repo Rate from the previous 28-day Leliq
Rate. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 23

 Argentina April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB -3.5 5.5
Allianz 0.1 1.8
Analytica Consultora -3.2 -
Aurum Valores -4.7 2.5
Banco de Galicia -3.8 4.5
Banco Supervielle -3.7 4.0
BancTrust & Co. -6.8 4.5
Barclays Capital -4.0 4.5
BBVA Argentina -4.0 6.0
BNP Paribas -3.0 2.5
C&T Asesores -2.9 -
Capital Economics -3.8 1.8
Credicorp Capital -3.1 3.3
DekaBank -1.4 1.7
E2 Economia -4.3 4.4
Eco Go -3.4 5.0
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Ecolatina -3.5 3.5
Econométrica -3.0 5.0
Econosignal -2.7 2.0
Econviews -3.3 8.0
EIU -3.5 5.4
EmergingMarketWatch -3.5 1.0
EMFI -3.1 5.0
Empiria Consultores -3.3 5.9
Equilibra -4.5 -
Euromonitor Int. -2.9 3.4
FIEL -4.5 -
Fitch Ratings -3.6 3.9
Fitch Solutions -1.9 0.5
FMyA -3.9 4.5
FrontierView -3.0 1.3
Goldman Sachs -3.2 1.7
HSBC -4.0 3.0
Invecq Consulting -3.5 -
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Itaú Unibanco -3.0 2.5
JPMorgan -3.6 5.2
Julius Baer -2.2 3.0
Kiel Institute -3.4 2.0
LCG -4.8 -
MAP -3.0 4.4
MAPFRE Economics -2.0 -1.8
Moody's Analytics -3.0 3.3
OJF & Asociados -3.2 4.5
Oxford Economics -4.3 4.6
Pantheon Macroeconomics -2.0 2.1
Pezco Economics -0.9 0.6
Quantum Finanzas -3.0 -
S&P Global Ratings -3.5 3.3
Santander -4.0 -
Standard Chartered -1.1 2.0
Torino Capital -1.2 -
UBS -0.8 1.4
UIA - CEU -2.5 -
Notes and sources VDC Consultora -1.8 3.5
Public Forecasts
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. IMF -2.8 5.0
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the World Bank -2.8 5.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist Others (3)** -2.2 2.2
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Summary
General: Minimum -6.8 -1.8
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Maximum 0.1 8.0
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute Median -3.2 3.4
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Consensus -3.1 3.4
Forecast. The Consensus Forecast for domestic demand contains a range of definitions.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. History
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 30 days ago -2.7 3.1
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months. 60 days ago -2.4 3.1
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months. 90 days ago -2.0 3.0
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 24

 Argentina April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB -6.1 6.5 -13.5 14.0
Analytica Consultora -4.9 - -8.3 -
Banco de Galicia -5.9 - -7.5 -
Banco Supervielle -7.6 5.4 -9.9 6.3
BancTrust & Co. -14.5 11.5 -9.6 12.9
Barclays Capital - - -6.3 6.6
BBVA Argentina -2.9 5.1 -13.6 17.2
Capital Economics -5.4 0.7 -11.3 0.5
Credicorp Capital -4.2 4.0 -3.9 8.3
Eco Go -6.5 3.1 -15.7 14.9
Ecolatina -4.9 3.9 -5.8 7.8
Econométrica -5.0 7.0 -10.0 12.0
Econviews -6.0 8.1 -7.0 8.8
EIU -9.0 7.5 -8.0 10.0
Empiria Consultores -8.7 6.9 -17.8 6.0 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Euromonitor Int. -5.4 4.4 - -
FIEL -5.3 - -24.0 -
Fitch Solutions -3.0 0.1 -4.2 -0.9
FMyA -8.3 6.6 -7.5 0.0
FrontierView -5.5 0.6 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.8 0.6 -19.4 -1.7
HSBC -6.6 4.1 -14.7 7.6
Invecq Consulting -5.0 - -12.0 -
LCG -6.8 - -1.4 -
MAPFRE Economics -7.8 2.0 -10.0 1.5
Moody's Analytics -3.9 3.0 -10.0 3.9
OJF & Asociados -7.1 4.1 -1.9 8.9
Oxford Economics -11.8 3.1 -9.9 1.5
Pezco Economics -1.1 0.8 -1.9 1.3
Quantum Finanzas -3.9 - -6.0 -
S&P Global Ratings -5.5 3.2 -4.5 3.4
Torino Capital -4.5 - -3.3 -
UBS -2.7 1.1 -3.4 1.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
Public Forecasts
IMF -6.7 3.5 -23.6 12.7
OECD* -1.5 1.7 -0.7 2.2
World Bank -6.7 3.5 -23.6 12.7
Summary
Minimum -14.5 0.1 -24.0 -1.7
Maximum -1.1 11.5 -1.4 17.2
Median -5.5 3.9 -9.6 7.1
Consensus -5.9 4.1 -10.0 6.8
History
30 days ago -5.7 3.9 -6.6 6.9
60 days ago -4.8 3.1 -5.7 7.2
90 days ago -4.5 3.0 -5.1 7.4

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25

 Argentina April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB -5.2 6.9 6.8 6.4
Banco de Galicia -4.1 - 6.8 -
Banco Supervielle -4.2 2.0 7.1 7.4
BBVA Argentina - - 8.6 7.9
Capital Economics 1.0 1.0 7.2 8.5
Credicorp Capital - - 9.2 8.3
E2 Economia -6.8 4.9 - -
Eco Go - - 8.9 8.2
Ecolatina - - 8.1 7.4
Econométrica -4.0 8.0 7.7 7.2
Econviews - - 8.7 7.6
EIU -2.2 8.5 9.1 7.9
EMFI - - 7.1 6.8
Empiria Consultores - - 9.0 -
Equilibra - - 9.5 - 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Euromonitor Int. -3.8 4.0 8.2 8.1
FIEL - - 8.1 -
Fitch Ratings - - 9.5 8.5
Fitch Solutions - - 10.0 9.0
FrontierView -3.2 2.3 9.9 8.5
Goldman Sachs - - 8.1 7.8
HSBC -7.7 2.1 6.5 6.2
Invecq Consulting -5.0 - 7.5 -
LCG -9.0 - 7.2 -
MAP -3.4 4.7 11.3 10.5
Moody's Analytics -11.7 2.4 9.0 7.6
OJF & Asociados -3.1 4.8 8.6 8.6
Oxford Economics -3.9 3.5 7.9 7.9
Pezco Economics -0.7 0.5 8.6 8.6
Quantum Finanzas -6.7 - 9.8 -
S&P Global Ratings - - 9.5 8.5
Torino Capital - - 7.0 -
UBS -2.5 3.5 8.5 8.0 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
UIA - CEU -6.0 - - -
VDC Consultora -3.0 3.0 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 8.0 7.5
Summary
Minimum -11.7 0.5 6.5 6.2
Maximum 1.0 8.5 11.3 10.5
Median -4.0 3.5 8.5 7.9
Consensus -4.5 3.9 8.4 8.0
History
30 days ago -3.4 3.5 8.7 8.1
60 days ago -2.7 2.8 8.8 8.1
90 days ago -2.4 2.6 8.8 8.0

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 26

 Argentina April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 0.0 0.0 80.7 77.7
Analytica Consultora -1.1 - - -
Aurum Valores -0.5 -0.5 - -
Banco de Galicia -0.5 - - -
Banco Supervielle -0.6 -1.4 - -
BancTrust & Co. 0.0 0.5 - -
Barclays Capital -1.7 -1.2 - -
BBVA Argentina -3.0 -2.0 - -
BNP Paribas -3.0 -2.0 90.0 82.0
Capital Economics -4.3 -4.0 90.8 74.6
Credicorp Capital -2.1 -0.2 111.7 74.3
DekaBank -2.0 -2.1 - -
Eco Go -0.6 -0.6 - -
Ecolatina -2.1 -1.6 - -
Econométrica 0.0 0.0 80.0 80.0 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
EIU -1.1 -1.1 97.2 75.9
EMFI -2.1 -1.5 - -
Empiria Consultores -0.6 1.1 - -
Equilibra -1.5 - - -
FIEL -2.0 - - -
Fitch Ratings -3.6 -1.9 86.4 63.6
Fitch Solutions -2.9 -1.1 150.0 109.0
FMyA 0.1 1.9 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.8 -2.8 78.7 59.7
HSBC -2.4 -2.0 - -
Invecq Consulting -2.0 - - -
LCG 0.0 - - -
MAP -2.0 -0.5 95.7 79.4
MAPFRE Economics -0.3 -0.5 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 73.0 73.1
OJF & Asociados -1.6 -0.6 - -
Oxford Economics -1.6 -1.4 - -
Pezco Economics -1.7 -1.4 96.0 77.9 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Quantum Finanzas 0.0 - - -
Santander -1.5 - - -
Torino Capital - - 85.0 -
UBS - - 87.7 61.7
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 86.2 79.5
World Bank 0.0 0.7 85.5 78.3
Summary
Minimum -4.3 -4.0 73.0 59.7
Maximum 0.1 1.9 150.0 109.0
Median -1.6 -1.1 87.0 77.7
Consensus -1.5 -1.0 92.2 76.5
History
30 days ago -1.7 -1.1 95.7 79.4
60 days ago -1.9 -1.3 91.3 78.4
90 days ago -2.1 -1.6 89.4 79.0

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance % of GDP.

15 Fical balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 27

 Argentina April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 165.5 50.2 252.6 71.1
Analytica Consultora 177.4 - 264.1 -
Aurum Valores 174.0 38.0 - -
Banco de Galicia 178.6 44.6 268.2 66.9
Banco Supervielle 186.2 80.8 265.6 115.5
BancTrust & Co. 127.6 11.1 286.9 28.2
Barclays Capital 195.8 40.0 284.4 68.5
BBVA Argentina 175.0 50.0 266.4 69.3
BNP Paribas - - 331.0 67.0
C&T Asesores 163.3 - - -
Capital Economics 242.2 189.9 265.0 102.5
Credicorp Capital 213.1 62.7 - -
DekaBank - - 265.6 47.7
E2 Economia 107.1 42.6 - -
Eco Go 164.8 70.0 267.7 86.5 15 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Ecolatina 217.4 63.0 293.6 107.0
Econométrica 210.0 70.0 280.0 110.0
Econosignal 170.8 47.9 252.4 79.2
Econviews 215.0 35.0 296.7 124.7
EIU 162.7 34.5 258.3 54.6
EmergingMarketWatch 275.0 80.0 - -
EMFI 196.3 76.3 290.8 98.8
Empiria Consultores 183.0 57.0 264.9 83.0
Equilibra 300.0 - 333.8 -
Euromonitor Int. - - 255.0 83.4
FIEL 165.0 - 260.0 -
Fitch Ratings - - 294.7 156.5
Fitch Solutions 170.0 30.0 270.0 70.0
FMyA 189.3 80.3 265.1 53.6
FrontierView - - 238.0 60.0
Goldman Sachs 160.0 50.0 248.8 69.7
HSBC 175.8 40.0 249.2 72.2
Invecq Consulting 200.0 - 280.0 - 16 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 180.0 60.0 - -
Julius Baer - - 339.5 79.9
Kiel Institute 220.0 28.1 323.5 56.4
LCG - - 280.6 -
MAP 212.3 45.8 295.9 76.5
MAPFRE Economics 302.6 46.8 339.3 78.6
Moody's Analytics 203.9 57.6 254.9 73.1
OJF & Asociados 199.0 50.4 272.1 100.9
Oxford Economics 209.1 46.8 292.8 85.0
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 282.3 100.0
Pezco Economics 165.5 119.6 188.5 142.6
Quantum Finanzas 143.6 - 258.0 -
S&P Global Ratings 215.0 60.0 275.0 105.0
Santander 200.2 - - -
Standard Chartered - - 269.1 77.8
Torino Capital 140.5 - 188.0 -
UBS 150.3 67.8 212.1 83.3
VDC Consultora 219.5 60.0 300.3 108.0 17 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
Public Forecasts
IMF 149.4 45.0 253.4 59.6
OECD - - 250.6 64.7
United Nations* - - 139.4 44.9
Summary
Minimum 107.1 11.1 188.0 28.2
Maximum 302.6 189.9 339.5 156.5
Median 183.0 50.2 268.0 78.6
Consensus 190.0 58.0 272.3 83.0
History
30 days ago 214.7 58.0 287.7 89.5
60 days ago 226.8 54.6 296.9 85.6
90 days ago 222.1 56.8 280.1 84.5

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 28

 Argentina April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

18 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB 60.00 43.00
Analytica Consultora 75.00 -
Banco de Galicia 52.00 -
BancTrust & Co. 25.00 11.00
BBVA Argentina 56.00 -
Capital Economics 80.00 60.00
Eco Go 65.00 41.00
Ecolatina 72.00 45.00
Econosignal 60.00 30.00
Econviews 80.00 35.00
EIU 65.00 45.00
Equilibra 74.00 -
Fitch Solutions 50.00 20.00
FMyA 60.00 60.00
HSBC 65.00 30.00
Itaú Unibanco 70.00 60.00
20 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
LCG 72.00 -
MAP 65.00 38.00
OJF & Asociados 60.00 -
Pantheon Macroeconomics 70.00 50.00
Quantum Finanzas 39.00 -
S&P Global Ratings 70.00 55.00
Santander 50.00 -
Summary
Minimum 25.00 11.00
Maximum 80.00 60.00
Median 65.00 43.00
Consensus 62.39 41.53
History
30 days ago 76.96 48.21
60 days ago 76.89 49.79
90 days ago 74.77 48.85

22 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the The Central Bank of the
Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina) and the National Statistical
Institute and the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop). Source: INDEC.

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
18 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop). Source: BCRA.
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 29

 Argentina April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB 1,361 2,089
Analytica Consultora 2,063 -
Aurum Valores 1,530 2,050
Banco de Galicia 1,348 -
Banco Supervielle 1,310 3,232
BancTrust & Co. 1,271 1,377
Barclays Capital 1,500 1,902
BBVA Argentina 1,480 2,079
C&T Asesores 1,240 -
Capital Economics 1,600 2,500
Credicorp Capital 1,872 1,997
E2 Economia 1,475 2,297
Eco Go 1,329 2,193
Ecolatina 1,600 2,820
Econométrica 1,600 2,700
Econosignal 1,477 1,870
25 | ARS per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Econviews 2,021 2,368
EIU 1,608 2,043
EMFI 1,510 2,121
Empiria Consultores 1,320 2,073
Equilibra 2,250 -
FIEL 1,200 -
Fitch Ratings 1,613 3,113
Fitch Solutions 980.0 900.0
FMyA 1,357 2,731
HSBC 1,600 -
Invecq Consulting 1,500 -
Itaú Unibanco 1,500 2,350
JPMorgan 1,500 -
LCG 1,928 -
MAP 1,688 2,376
MAPFRE Economics 2,085 2,872
OJF & Asociados 1,852 2,908
Oxford Economics 1,549 2,549
27 | ARS per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Pezco Economics 934.7 795.3
Quantum Finanzas 1,790 -
S&P Global Ratings 2,100 3,300
Santander 1,647 -
Standard Chartered 1,550 1,875
Torino Capital 946.3 -
UBS 1,350 1,900
VDC Consultora 1,633 2,352
Summary
Minimum 934.7 795.3
Maximum 2,250 3,300
Median 1,520 2,245
Consensus 1,549 2,258
History
30 days ago 1,702 2,425
60 days ago 1,805 2,488
90 days ago 1,700 2,384

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).

24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 30

 Argentina April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 2.2 1.1 15.5 12.7
Analytica Consultora 2.1 - 11.7 -
Banco de Galicia 0.3 - 10.0 -
Banco Supervielle 2.0 1.0 17.1 21.5
BancTrust & Co. 2.2 0.8 20.2 18.8
Barclays Capital 0.6 0.5 24.3 27.0
BBVA Argentina 0.5 -0.3 15.5 12.7
BNP Paribas 1.5 1.0 - -
Capital Economics 1.5 1.3 - -
Credicorp Capital 0.3 1.0 - -
DekaBank 0.4 -0.6 - -
Eco Go 1.0 1.0 17.0 10.2
Ecolatina 0.8 -0.6 14.4 8.1
Econométrica 1.0 0.5 20.0 17.0
Econosignal 1.0 1.4 13.8 17.0 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Econviews - - 17.5 16.3
EIU 0.2 -0.8 - -
EMFI -0.1 -0.1 13.6 12.5
Empiria Consultores 0.7 0.5 14.1 12.2
Equilibra 1.8 - 20.0 -
Euromonitor Int. -2.9 -0.9 - -
FIEL -0.9 - 10.0 -
Fitch Ratings 1.8 1.1 - -
Fitch Solutions 0.1 1.2 - -
FMyA -3.4 0.0 15.1 4.3
Goldman Sachs 0.5 0.1 - -
HSBC 0.6 0.5 17.7 18.1
Invecq Consulting 2.0 - 21.0 -
LCG 1.0 - 14.8 -
MAP 0.6 0.3 16.1 13.9
MAPFRE Economics 1.2 1.8 - -
Moody's Analytics 0.3 0.1 - -
OJF & Asociados 1.2 0.3 18.6 11.9 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Oxford Economics 0.9 1.8 - -
Pezco Economics -1.5 -0.8 6.6 7.8
Quantum Finanzas 3.0 - - -
Standard Chartered 0.5 0.4 - -
Torino Capital 0.2 - - -
UBS 1.0 0.2 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 0.9 0.9 - -
OECD* -1.3 -0.8 - -
World Bank 0.9 0.9 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.4 -0.9 6.6 4.3
Maximum 3.0 1.8 24.3 27.0
Median 0.9 0.5 15.5 12.7
Consensus 0.7 0.5 16.9 14.2
History
30 days ago 0.8 0.5 16.7 14.7
60 days ago 0.7 0.3 16.9 14.1 31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
90 days ago 0.8 0.3 17.1 14.3

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.

29 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions.
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 31

 Argentina April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 81.0 85.5 65.6 72.9
Analytica Consultora 80.7 - 69.0 -
Banco de Galicia 73.6 - 63.6 -
Banco Supervielle 77.7 81.2 60.6 59.7
BancTrust & Co. 76.5 81.4 56.3 62.6
Barclays Capital 81.0 92.0 56.7 65.0
BBVA Argentina 83.2 91.0 67.7 78.3
Eco Go 78.5 95.2 61.5 85.0
Ecolatina 80.5 82.5 66.1 74.4
Econométrica 83.0 90.0 63.0 73.0
Econosignal 78.6 84.0 64.8 67.0
Econviews 86.8 91.2 69.3 74.8
EIU 82.2 85.9 - -
EMFI 70.0 72.1 56.5 59.6
Empiria Consultores 76.1 87.7 62.1 75.5 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Equilibra 81.0 - 61.0 -
FIEL 77.0 - 67.0 -
Fitch Ratings 90.7 97.9 - -
FMyA 78.0 78.0 62.9 73.7
Goldman Sachs 81.8 86.3 - -
HSBC 76.4 81.7 58.7 63.5
Invecq Consulting 83.0 - 62.0 -
LCG 81.4 - 66.6 -
MAP 81.7 86.2 65.7 72.4
OJF & Asociados 83.9 90.0 65.3 78.1
Oxford Economics 67.3 68.9 - -
Pezco Economics 87.1 92.4 80.5 84.5
Quantum Finanzas 91.0 - - -
Torino Capital 93.0 - - -
UBS 85.9 91.1 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 79.3 84.2 - -
Summary 34 | Imports | variation in %
Minimum 67.3 68.9 56.3 59.6
Maximum 93.0 97.9 80.5 85.0
Median 81.0 86.2 63.6 73.0
Consensus 80.9 85.9 64.0 71.8
History
30 days ago 81.2 85.7 64.5 71.1
60 days ago 82.7 85.9 65.8 71.8
90 days ago 83.5 87.0 66.3 72.8

35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Exports, annual variation in %.

33 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Imports, annual variation in %.
35 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 32

 Argentina April 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 34.5 42.7 - -
Banco de Galicia 30.8 - - -
Banco Supervielle 30.0 33.0 - -
BancTrust & Co. 36.7 45.7 - -
Barclays Capital 34.0 36.7 283 291
BNP Paribas 30.0 35.0 - -
Credicorp Capital 41.4 48.5 - -
Eco Go 30.2 38.2 - -
Econométrica 33.0 37.0 285 285
EIU 34.5 42.8 - -
Equilibra 35.0 - - -
Euromonitor Int. 24.7 26.3 - -
FIEL 32.0 - 281 -
Fitch Ratings 36.4 45.2 - -
Fitch Solutions 33.5 36.8 310 325 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
FMyA 31.1 31.1 - -
Goldman Sachs 30.0 35.0 - -
LCG 33.0 - - -
MAP 33.1 45.3 285 293
Moody's Analytics 35.2 45.0 - -
OJF & Asociados 30.8 38.2 - -
Oxford Economics - - 256 253
Quantum Finanzas 34.0 - - -
Torino Capital 34.5 - 282 -
UBS 32.0 37.0 276 276
Public Forecasts
IMF 30.1 36.1 277 280
Summary
Minimum 24.7 26.3 256 253
Maximum 41.4 48.5 310 325
Median 33.0 37.0 282 285
Consensus 32.8 38.7 282 286
History 38 | External Debt | % of GDP
30 days ago 32.1 38.8 285 293
60 days ago 31.7 38.3 284 295
90 days ago 31.6 35.9 280 288

39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 International reserves, months of imports.

37 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 External debt as % of GDP.
39 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 33

 Argentina April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.6 m)
Rosario (1.4 m)
Area (km2): 2,780,400
Population (million, 2019 est.): 45.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 16.5
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.8
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 0.9
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 132
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 19.1

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,157
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,868
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 138
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 125
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 678
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 752
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 200

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 281,290
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca

Political Data
President: Javier Milei
Last elections: 19 November 2023
Next elections: 2027 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Santiago Bausili

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ca Stable
S&P Global Ratings: CCC Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: C -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Rich in natural resources • Weak fiscal metrics

• Large producer of agricultural • External debt repayment risks
Exports Imports
commodities • Runaway inflation
• Diversified industrial base • Currency volatility
• Current policy shift to market- • Policy uncertainty
friendly policies • Highly-taxed country
• IMF financial support .

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 34

 Brazil April 2024

Brazil
Softer private spending to drag on GDP
Economic overview: Our Consensus is for sequential GDP growth to have
made a comeback in Q1 after flatlining in Q4. Available data is optimistic:
Monthly economic activity growth roughly doubled from Q4’s average in
January. Moreover, both the manufacturing and services PMIs averaged
above Q4 in Q1—well into expansionary territory—highlighting that business
conditions in these sectors improved markedly. Furthermore, business
sentiment was higher in Q1 than in Q4. Additionally, average inflation was
below Q4 in Q1. This, paired with lower interest rates from Q3 2023, led to
retail sales rebounding from Q4 on average in January–February, posting
their strongest expansion in a year in the former month. Continued nominal
Marta Casanovas year-on-year wage growth likely lent further support to private consumption.
Economist Still, consumers were more pessimistic in Q1 than in Q4.

GDP outlook: Economic growth will cool from 2023 this year owing to
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages slowdowns in both private consumption—on the delayed impact of tight
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 monetary policy—and exports. A rebound in fixed investment will lend
GDP growth (%): 1.5 2.2 2.1 support to growth, however. Extreme weather, the government’s fiscal
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.4 -7.4 -5.6
Public Debt (% of GDP): 78.6 77.2 83.0
stance and October’s local elections—particularly their impact on reform—
Inflation (%): 6.9 4.1 3.5 are key factors to monitor. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.4 -1.6 -1.9
1.8% in 2024, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.0% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: In March, inflation waned to a nine-month low of 3.9% (February:
4.5%), moving closer to the mid-point of the BCB’s 1.5–4.5% target band.
Similarly, core inflation fell to a near three-year low of 4.3% (February: 4.7%).
Inflation is set to average below 2023 this year but remain above the mid-
point of the BCB’s target range on lower interest rates and an expansionary
fiscal stance. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 3.9%
on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
3.7% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 19–20 March meeting, the BCB extended its
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
loosening cycle, slashing the benchmark SELIC rate by 50 basis points
to 10.75%. The BCB hinted that, if its baseline scenario materialized, it
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
would again cut rates by 50 basis points when it convenes next on 7–8
May. Our panelists see 75–275 basis points of additional cuts this year.
FocusEconomics panelists see the SELIC rate ending 2024 at 9.13% and
ending 2025 at 8.69%.

Currency: The real traded at BRL 5.14 per USD on 12 April, depreciating
3.1% month on month. The BCB’s loosening cycle and expectations of
a delay in the first U.S. Fed cut likely weighed on the currency. The BRL
should regain some ground on the USD by end-2024. The country’s fiscal
performance is a factor to watch amid market concerns over high public debt
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 and a large budget deficit. FocusEconomics panelists see the real ending
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
2024 at BRL 4.99 per USD and ending 2025 at BRL 5.07 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 35

 Brazil April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth eases in January

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: The Brazilian economy kicked off 2024 on softer footing:
Economic activity grew 0.6% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in
January, which was a deterioration from December’s 0.8% increase. January’s
print still overshot market expectations.

On an annual basis, economic activity rose at a quicker rate of 3.4% in January

(December: +1.3% yoy), the best result since April 2023. That said, the trend
was unchanged, with annual average economic activity growth coming in at
December’s 2.5% in January.

Meanwhile, retail sales growth ebbed to 1.0% in seasonally adjusted month-

on-month terms in February, slowing from January’s 2.8% increase.
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and year-on-year changes in %. In the same month, industrial output fell at a slower pace of 0.3% (January:
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
-1.5% s.a. mom).

Outlook: Going forward, the Central Bank’s interest rate cuts are set to trickle
down to the real economy, providing some support to investment and, in turn,
economic growth. That said, inflation will remain above the midpoint of the
Central Bank’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band during the rest of this year, partly
offsetting the positive effect of looser monetary policy on private spending and
capping the overall improvement of household consumption.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8%

in 2024, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.0% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Services PMI hits a near two-year high in March

Services Purchasing Managers’ Index Latest reading: The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI rose to a 20-month high
of 54.8 in March from 54.6 in February. As a result, the index moved further
above the 50.0 no-change threshold and signaled a faster improvement in
services sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.

March’s improvement was primarily driven by the second-fastest increase in

sales in nearly a year and a half, supported by healthy demand conditions
and new business acquisitions. The positive sales trends and optimistic output
projections encouraged the fastest expansion in employment since October
2022.

Regarding prices, March saw heightened wage pressures and rising material
Note: S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading costs, contributing to the most significant increase in business expenses in
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
five months. Still, charge inflation eased to its lowest in five months. Lastly,
Source: S&P Global. service providers remained optimistic about future growth driven by rising job
creation, government incentives, and positive demand prospects.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index REAL SECTOR | Brazil manufacturing PMI ticks down in March
Latest reading: The S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) fell to 53.6 in March from 54.1 in February, but still marked the
second-highest reading since July 2022. Despite the downtick, the index
remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaling a softer improvement
in manufacturing sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.

March’s moderation reflected output expanding at a slower pace than in

February. Similarly, the job creation rate softened from February to the second-
strongest in 20 months. More positively, external sales fell at a milder pace in
March, and new orders rose at the sharpest rate in over two-and-a-half years.

Note: S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous
month, while a value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: S&P Global.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 36

 Brazil April 2024

Regarding prices, input and output charges rose mildly, with inflation rates
remaining well below the peaks recorded in 2020–2022; higher expenses
for international freight, metals, plastics, and textiles drove the slight rise in
costs. Lastly, manufacturers exhibited optimism for the coming 12 months,
supported by job creation, more responsive suppliers, and successful efforts
in reducing backlogs.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer sentiment improved while industrial business

sentiment wanes in March
Consumer and Business Confidence Indices Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index
published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) rose
to a three-month high of 91.3 in March, up from February’s 89.7. As such, the
index moved closer to, but remained below, the 100-point threshold, indicating
pessimism among Brazilian consumers.

Conversely, the seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index

declined to 96.5 in March from February’s 97.4. Consequently, the index
moved further below the 100-point threshold, signaling starker pessimism
among industrial firms.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ebbs to nine-month low in March

Note: Consumer and industrial business confidence indexes (seasonally
Latest reading: Inflation dropped by more than markets had anticipated to
adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers 3.9% in March from February’s 4.5%. March’s result marked the weakest
and industrial businesses expect economic conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas). reading since June 2023. Looking at the details of the release, the moderation
Inflation | Consumer Price Index was driven by milder price pressures for transportation, as well as housing
and utilities. Moreover, prices for clothing grew at a more subdued pace.

Accordingly, the trend pointed slightly down, with annual average inflation
coming in at 4.3% in March (February: 4.4%). Meanwhile, core inflation waned
to 4.3% in March, down from February’s 4.7% and marking the lowest print
since May 2021.

Finally, consumer prices increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.16% in March

over the previous month, a smaller increase than the 0.83% rise seen in
February. March’s result marked the weakest reading since July 2023 and
also surprised markets on the downside.
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to average around current levels—
remaining comfortably within the Central Bank of Brazil’s 1.5%–4.5% tolerance
band—during the remainder of 2024. That said, our panelists expect average
inflation to remain above the mid-point of the band through Q4 2025.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

3.9% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
3.7% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank delivers sixth 50 basis point reduction in

Monetary Policy Rate | in %
March
Latest bank decision: At its 19–20 March meeting, the Monetary Policy
Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) extended its
loosening cycle, slashing the benchmark SELIC rate by a further 50 basis
points to 10.75%. The cut was the sixth consecutive half-percentage-point
reduction, and it was once again unanimous. The decision had been priced in
by markets as the BCB did not deviate from the path it announced at its prior
meeting.

Monetary policy drivers: The cut was motivated by the ongoing gradual
reduction in both headline and core price pressures. While both measures
Note: SELIC target rate (Taxa SELIC meta) in %.
are still above target, the policy stance remains contractionary, and the Bank
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 37

 Brazil April 2024

affirmed that the ongoing reduction in interest rates is still consistent with
bringing inflation down to target over “the relevant horizon, which includes the
years 2024 and 2025”. Particularly, the BCB’s baseline inflation expectations
have remained unchanged since December at 3.5% and 3.2% for 2024 and
2025, respectively. Consequently, the Bank forecasts inflation to remain within
its 1.5–4.5% tolerance band but be above the 3.0% mid-point.

Policy outlook: The communiqué’s forward guidance mirrored that of

the prior meetings; if the COPOM’s baseline inflation expectation scenario
materializes, it will slash rates by another 50 basis points when it convenes
next on 7–8 May. Even if another cut materializes, the policy stance will still
remain restrictive as upside risks to the inflation outlook linger. The Bank
added that the size of future cuts is dependent on shifts in the disinflation
process and the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Accordingly, our panelists have penciled in 75–275 basis points of additional

rate cuts by end-2024.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the SELIC rate ending

2024 at 9.13% and ending 2025 at 8.69%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account deficit narrows in February

Current Account Balance | USD billion Latest reading: The current account recorded a USD 4.4 billion deficit in
February, improving from the USD 5.1 billion deficit clocked in January
(February 2023: USD 4.4 billion deficit). Meanwhile, in the 12 months leading
up to February, the current account posted a USD 24.7 billion deficit, mirroring
the deficit booked in January.

The merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month,

recording a USD 5.3 billion surplus in February (January 2024: USD 6.3 billion
surplus). Merchandise exports jumped 16.1% annually in February (January:
+17.6% year on year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 2.9% in
annual terms in February, improving from January’s flat result, and marking
the strongest reading since January 2023.
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the current account posting
a deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from
one month ago, and posting a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 38

 Brazil April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 208 209 210
GDP per capita (USD) 9,363 7,347 8,266 9,615 10,640 11,323 11,770 12,285 12,967 13,712
GDP (USD bn) 1,873 1,477 1,670 1,952 2,173 2,325 2,430 2,550 2,705 2,875
GDP (BRL bn) 7,389 7,610 9,012 10,080 10,856 11,544 12,191 13,101 13,805 14,611
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.5 3.0 18.4 11.8 7.7 6.3 5.6 7.5 5.4 5.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 -3.3 4.8 3.0 2.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 -4.6 3.0 4.1 3.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.5 -3.7 4.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.0 -1.7 12.9 1.1 -3.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.6 -2.3 4.4 5.7 9.1 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -9.5 13.8 1.0 -1.2 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.1 -4.7 4.2 -0.7 0.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.1 13.5 13.5 9.5 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.8 -13.3 -4.3 -4.6 -8.9 -7.0 -6.2 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 74.4 86.9 77.3 71.7 74.4 77.4 79.8 81.5 83.3 84.2
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.7 29.0 8.1 18.1 15.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.3 4.5 10.1 5.8 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.7 3.2 8.3 9.3 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.0 16.7 36.4 11.7 -5.8 - - - - -
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 4.50 2.00 9.25 13.75 11.75 9.13 8.69 8.49 8.20 8.16
Interbank Deposit Overnight Rate (%, eop) 4.40 1.90 9.15 13.65 11.65 9.38 9.03 8.65 8.40 8.40
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.78 6.90 10.83 12.66 10.36 10.20 9.78 9.96 - -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 4.02 5.19 5.57 5.28 4.86 4.99 5.07 5.12 5.13 5.17
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.95 5.15 5.40 5.16 5.00 4.96 5.02 5.14 5.10 5.08
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -68.0 -28.2 -46.4 -48.3 -28.6 -34.9 -45.1 -46.7 -51.7 -55.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 35.2 50.4 61.4 61.5 98.9 86.9 81.7 86.0 93.0 102.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 221 209 281 334 340 341 350 370 392 438
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 186 159 219 273 241 254 268 284 299 336
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.6 -5.4 34.2 19.0 1.7 0.3 2.8 5.7 5.9 11.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 0.3 -14.6 38.2 24.2 -11.7 5.4 5.7 5.9 5.2 12.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 69.2 38.3 46.4 74.6 62.0 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 357 356 362 325 355 363 373 384 396 429
International Reserves (months of imports) 23.0 26.9 19.8 14.3 17.7 17.2 16.7 16.2 15.9 15.3
External Debt (USD bn) 323 311 325 320 342 340 345 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 17.2 21.0 19.5 16.4 15.7 14.6 14.2 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.8 -4.4 0.4 1.6 4.6 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.0 7.3 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.1 -0.9 2.3 1.1 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 4.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.8 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 12.75 11.75 10.75 9.88 9.40 9.19 9.01 8.93 8.85 8.78
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 11.67 10.36 11.07 10.52 10.33 10.19 9.93 9.78 9.64 9.49
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 5.01 4.86 5.01 4.95 4.97 4.98 4.97 5.01 5.06 5.08
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.5 -2.3 -0.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.8 -1.2 -1.9 -2.4
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom s.a. var. %) 0.3 0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) 2.7 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 3.4 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.5 -1.5 -0.3 -
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.2 -1.5 2.8 1.0 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.8 -
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 46.6 47.8 50.1 49.0 48.6 49.4 48.4 52.8 54.1 53.6
S&P Global Services PMI (50-threshold) 53.3 50.2 50.6 48.7 51.0 51.2 50.5 53.1 54.6 54.8
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 91.9 94.2 95.0 94.9 92.7 92.3 93.2 90.8 89.7 91.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.08 0.12 0.23 0.26 0.24 0.28 0.56 0.42 0.83 0.16
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.9
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 4.82 4.76 4.95 5.01 5.04 4.93 4.86 4.94 4.97 5.01
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.8 -5.2 -2.0 -0.2 -0.8 -1.8 -5.9 -5.1 -4.4 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 39

 Brazil April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 1.9 2.1
Actinver 1.6 2.1
Allianz 1.7 1.9
Banco BMG 1.7 2.0
Banco BV 2.0 1.5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.8 3.0
Barclays Capital 1.9 1.7
BNP Paribas 1.8 1.8
BTG Pactual 2.3 2.2
Capital Economics 1.3 1.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.5
Credicorp Capital 1.9 1.6
Credit Agricole 1.5 1.8
DekaBank 1.6 2.0
DIW Berlin 1.6 2.1
E2 Economia 1.8 2.0
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
EIU 1.8 2.2
EmergingMarketWatch 2.3 -
Euromonitor Int. 1.8 1.9
Fitch Ratings 1.7 2.1
Fitch Solutions 1.6 2.0
FrontierView 1.9 2.0
Goldman Sachs 1.9 2.1
HSBC 2.0 2.3
ifo Institute 0.7 2.3
Itaú Unibanco 2.3 1.8
JPMorgan 2.2 1.9
Julius Baer 1.5 2.0
KBC 1.7 1.8
Kiel Institute 1.2 1.9
Kínitro Capital 2.3 2.2
LCA Consultores 1.5 1.9
MAPFRE Economics 1.6 2.2
MB Associados 2.0 1.8
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Moody's Analytics 2.0 2.5
Oxford Economics 0.9 1.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.3 2.1
Petros 1.8 1.5
Pezco Economics 2.0 2.5
Prometeia 0.9 1.8
Rabobank 1.8 1.8
S&P Global Ratings 1.8 2.0
Santander 1.8 2.0
Scotiabank 1.9 2.0
SEB 1.8 2.0
Société Générale 1.5 1.9
Standard Chartered 1.7 2.3
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.8 1.9
Torino Capital 2.8 -
UBS 2.0 2.2
Public Forecasts
CEPAL* 1.6 -
IMF* 1.5 1.9
OECD 1.8 2.0
Notes and sources United Nations* 1.6 2.3
World Bank 1.7 2.2
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Summary
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
Minimum 0.7 1.5
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Maximum 2.8 3.0
Median 1.8 2.0
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Consensus 1.8 2.0
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography History
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
30 days ago 1.6 2.0
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
60 days ago 1.6 2.0
1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 90 days ago 1.5 2.0
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 40

 Brazil April 2024

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 1.9 1.4 3.9 4.5
Banco BMG 1.8 - 1.0 -
Banco BV 2.9 2.5 3.7 3.0
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.2 3.0 1.5 5.0
Barclays Capital 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3
BTG Pactual 3.5 3.3 0.3 1.2
Capital Economics 1.3 1.6 0.2 1.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.7 1.9 2.0 3.7
Credicorp Capital 2.6 2.6 0.8 1.2
E2 Economia 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0
EIU 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.0
Euromonitor Int. 1.5 1.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.0
FrontierView 2.0 2.4 - -
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.8 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.0
LCA Consultores 2.7 1.6 1.0 2.1
MAPFRE Economics -1.7 0.2 5.2 4.4
MB Associados 1.9 2.0 0.6 3.2
Oxford Economics -0.4 -0.6 2.7 6.1
Pezco Economics 2.6 2.8 3.5 2.3
Rabobank 1.7 2.1 5.7 5.4
S&P Global Ratings 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.2
Société Générale 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.8
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.8 1.9 2.3 3.9
Torino Capital 2.8 - 7.2 -
UBS 1.9 2.5 3.5 3.6
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - 0.6 1.2
OECD* 2.1 1.9 0.8 1.2
World Bank 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.5
Summary
Minimum -1.7 -0.6 0.2 1.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
Maximum 3.5 3.3 7.2 6.1
Median 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.6
Consensus 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9
History
30 days ago 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.8
60 days ago 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.8
90 days ago 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.5

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 41

 Brazil April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 1.7 2.8 8.0 7.8
Banco BMG 2.0 2.0 8.1 8.6
Banco BV - - 7.8 7.8
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.5 3.0 8.1 -
Barclays Capital 1.4 1.3 8.4 9.1
BTG Pactual - - 8.0 8.5
Capital Economics 1.0 2.0 8.2 8.1
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.5 7.0
Credicorp Capital - - 7.9 8.5
DIW Berlin - - 8.2 8.3
E2 Economia 0.7 0.7 - -
EIU 1.1 1.5 - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.8 2.0 8.3 8.4
Fitch Ratings - - 8.0 8.0
Fitch Solutions - - 8.0 8.5 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
FrontierView - - 8.5 8.6
HSBC 2.7 2.0 7.8 7.8
Itaú Unibanco - - 7.7 7.9
Kínitro Capital - - 8.1 8.2
LCA Consultores 2.5 2.1 7.7 6.9
MB Associados 2.1 1.5 7.5 7.5
Moody's Analytics 0.8 3.2 - -
Oxford Economics 1.2 2.1 7.8 8.4
Petros - - 8.1 8.4
Pezco Economics 1.9 1.2 7.5 7.4
Rabobank 1.2 0.9 8.3 8.5
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.7 8.6
Santander - - 7.9 8.7
Société Générale - - 8.1 8.0
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.5 2.6 7.8 8.3
Torino Capital - - 8.6 -
UBS 0.4 1.0 - -
Public Forecasts 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
IMF* - - 8.2 8.1
Summary
Minimum 0.4 0.7 7.5 6.9
Maximum 2.8 3.2 8.7 9.1
Median 1.5 2.0 8.0 8.3
Consensus 1.6 1.9 8.0 8.2
History
30 days ago 1.7 1.8 8.2 8.3
60 days ago 1.6 1.9 8.2 8.4
90 days ago 1.5 1.9 8.3 8.4

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 42

 Brazil April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Banco BMG -6.1 -5.4 76.9 78.5
Banco BV -6.0 -6.0 78.0 80.4
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. - - 78.2 79.7
Barclays Capital -6.9 -6.5 77.0 79.8
BNP Paribas -7.3 -6.9 78.7 81.1
BTG Pactual - - 76.8 79.5
Capital Economics -7.0 -6.0 77.5 79.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -7.1 -7.4 78.3 81.7
Credicorp Capital -7.4 -6.0 79.2 84.8
DekaBank -7.2 -6.7 - -
EIU -7.2 -6.7 77.8 82.1
Fitch Ratings -6.3 -5.7 77.3 79.3
Fitch Solutions -7.2 -6.4 77.8 80.4
Goldman Sachs -6.9 -6.3 77.8 80.0
HSBC -6.6 -6.3 76.6 77.4 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco - - 77.2 80.6
LCA Consultores -7.1 -6.1 78.9 80.7
MAPFRE Economics -8.5 -7.5 - -
MB Associados -6.3 -5.6 78.0 81.0
Moody's Analytics - - 75.8 77.1
Oxford Economics -8.1 -6.4 79.4 81.9
Petros - - 78.5 81.2
Pezco Economics -6.2 -4.6 76.2 76.0
Rabobank -6.8 -6.2 77.6 80.1
Santander -6.9 -6.7 76.8 79.5
Société Générale -6.4 -5.8 75.1 76.1
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -7.0 -7.0 77.0 79.2
Torino Capital - - 73.4 -
UBS -7.9 -5.8 78.7 79.9
Public Forecasts
IMF* -6.0 -5.3 90.3 92.4
OECD* -6.4 -5.8 - -
World Bank -7.1 -5.1 77.2 77.3 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Summary
Minimum -8.5 -7.5 73.4 76.0
Maximum -6.0 -4.6 79.4 84.8
Median -7.0 -6.3 77.6 79.9
Consensus -7.0 -6.2 77.4 79.8
History
30 days ago -7.1 -6.2 77.7 80.3
60 days ago -7.1 -6.2 78.3 80.7
90 days ago -7.1 -6.2 78.3 80.8

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 43

 Brazil April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 3.9 3.5 - -
Actinver 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.7
Allianz - - 4.2 3.5
Banco BMG 4.0 3.5 4.2 3.6
Banco BV 4.0 3.5 - -
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3
Barclays Capital 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.4
BNP Paribas - - 3.9 3.8
BTG Pactual 3.9 3.5 - -
Capital Economics 4.4 4.3 4.4 3.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.5
Credicorp Capital 4.1 3.5 4.3 3.7
Credit Agricole - - 3.8 3.5
DekaBank - - 3.7 3.6
DIW Berlin - - 3.4 3.0 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
E2 Economia 4.5 5.0 4.2 5.0
EIU 3.8 3.5 4.1 3.4
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.8 3.6
Fitch Ratings - - 4.3 3.7
Fitch Solutions 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.6
FrontierView - - 4.0 3.7
Goldman Sachs 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.0
HSBC 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.1
ifo Institute - - 3.7 3.6
Itaú Unibanco 3.7 3.6 - -
Julius Baer - - 3.7 3.5
KBC - - 4.0 3.8
Kiel Institute 3.8 3.7 - -
Kínitro Capital 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.0
LCA Consultores 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
MAPFRE Economics 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7
MB Associados 3.8 4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.6
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 3.9 3.5
Petros 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.6
Pezco Economics 4.0 4.0 - -
Prometeia - - 4.5 4.8
Rabobank 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.5
S&P Global Ratings 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7
Santander 3.4 4.0 - -
Scotiabank 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6
SEB - - 4.1 3.8
Société Générale - - 4.2 3.6
Standard Chartered - - 4.1 3.5
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 3.8 3.6 - -
Torino Capital 2.9 - 3.1 -
UBS 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9
Public Forecasts
IMF* 3.9 3.0 4.5 3.0
OECD - - 3.3 3.0 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
United Nations* - - 4.2 3.5
World Bank - - 3.9 3.7
Summary
Minimum 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.9
Maximum 4.5 5.0 4.5 5.0
Median 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.6
Consensus 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.7
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.6
60 days ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7
90 days ago 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.6

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 44

 Brazil April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 9.75 8.00
Actinver 9.00 8.50
Banco BMG 9.50 8.50
Banco BV 9.00 8.50
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 9.00 9.00
Barclays Capital 9.50 8.50
BTG Pactual 9.50 8.75
Capital Economics 9.50 9.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 10.00 10.00
Credicorp Capital 8.50 8.00
Credit Agricole 9.25 8.50
E2 Economia 9.50 9.50
EIU 9.00 8.75
Fitch Solutions 9.25 8.50
Goldman Sachs 9.50 8.50
HSBC 8.50 8.75
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 9.75 9.75
JPMorgan 9.50 -
Kínitro Capital 9.00 8.50
LCA Consultores 9.00 8.50
MAPFRE Economics 9.00 9.00
MB Associados 9.25 9.00
Oxford Economics 9.00 9.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 8.50 8.00
Petros 8.75 8.50
Pezco Economics 9.00 9.00
Rabobank 9.00 9.00
S&P Global Ratings 9.00 9.00
Santander 9.00 8.00
Scotiabank 9.00 8.50
Société Générale 8.75 -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 9.50 9.00
Torino Capital 9.00 -
UBS 8.00 7.50
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Summary
Minimum 8.00 7.50
Maximum 10.00 10.00
Median 9.00 8.50
Consensus 9.13 8.69
History
30 days ago 9.03 8.61
60 days ago 9.06 8.61
90 days ago 9.06 8.55

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 45

 Brazil April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 5.00 4.98
Actinver 4.99 5.11
Banco BMG 4.90 5.10
Banco BV 5.30 5.30
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.95 4.95
Barclays Capital 4.90 4.80
BTG Pactual 5.00 5.10
Capital Economics 5.20 5.30
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.95 4.99
Credicorp Capital 5.02 5.12
Credit Agricole 5.10 5.25
E2 Economia 5.00 5.00
EIU 5.04 5.05
Fitch Ratings 5.10 5.20
Fitch Solutions 4.95 5.02
HSBC 4.75 -
29 | BRL per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | BRL per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 5.00 5.20
JPMorgan 5.10 -
Julius Baer 4.91 5.06
Kínitro Capital 4.90 4.95
LCA Consultores 5.00 5.03
MAPFRE Economics 5.12 5.20
MB Associados 5.00 5.00
Moody's Analytics 4.99 5.04
Oxford Economics 5.13 5.21
Petros 4.80 4.89
Pezco Economics 5.00 5.16
Rabobank 5.00 5.05
S&P Global Ratings 5.00 5.10
Santander 5.00 5.05
Scotiabank 4.94 5.03
Société Générale 4.50 4.96
Standard Chartered 4.70 4.95
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 4.95 5.07
31 | BRL per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Torino Capital 5.30 -
UBS 5.00 5.05
Summary
Minimum 4.50 4.80
Maximum 5.30 5.30
Median 5.00 5.05
Consensus 4.99 5.07
History
30 days ago 4.99 5.07
60 days ago 4.99 5.09
90 days ago 5.02 5.11

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 46

 Brazil April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence -1.4 -1.6 - -
Banco BMG -1.4 -1.8 85.5 83.9
Banco BV -1.8 -1.9 85.0 89.9
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -1.4 -1.6 - -
Barclays Capital -1.3 -1.3 - -
BNP Paribas -1.1 -1.5 - -
BTG Pactual -1.5 -1.0 - -
Capital Economics -1.8 -2.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.3 -1.7 - -
Credicorp Capital -1.6 -1.6 - -
Credit Agricole -1.7 -2.0 - -
DekaBank -1.5 -1.9 - -
EIU -1.5 -2.1 - -
Euromonitor Int. -2.1 -2.8 75.4 55.1
Fitch Ratings -1.7 -1.8 - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Fitch Solutions -1.7 -1.9 - -
Goldman Sachs -1.2 -1.4 - -
HSBC -1.2 -1.7 - -
Itaú Unibanco -0.6 -1.0 85.0 70.0
Kínitro Capital -1.5 -1.6 - -
LCA Consultores -1.1 -2.1 88.7 70.0
MAPFRE Economics -1.6 -2.2 - -
MB Associados -0.6 -0.8 84.9 90.2
Moody's Analytics -1.9 -5.1 - -
Oxford Economics -1.5 -1.8 - -
Pezco Economics -1.6 -1.8 104.7 112.1
Rabobank -1.5 -1.6 86.0 77.3
Société Générale -1.5 -2.1 - -
Standard Chartered -1.5 -1.7 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -1.6 -1.6 85.0 80.1
Torino Capital -2.0 - - -
UBS -2.0 -2.2 89.1 88.8
Public Forecasts 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
IMF* -1.8 -1.9 - -
OECD* -1.6 -1.5 - -
World Bank -1.8 -2.1 - -
Summary
Minimum -2.1 -5.1 75.4 55.1
Maximum -0.6 -0.8 104.7 112.1
Median -1.5 -1.8 85.3 82.0
Consensus -1.5 -1.9 86.9 81.7
History
30 days ago -1.6 -1.9 84.3 78.3
60 days ago -1.7 -1.9 81.2 74.4
90 days ago -1.8 -2.0 79.8 74.3

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 47

 Brazil April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Banco BMG 350 371 264 287
Banco BV 339 354 254 264
Euromonitor Int. 337 340 262 285
Itaú Unibanco 340 325 255 255
LCA Consultores 335 330 247 260
MB Associados 320 349 235 258
Pezco Economics 382 409 277 297
Rabobank 347 355 261 277
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 317 319 232 239
UBS 342 350 253 262
Public Forecasts
IMF* 343 349 296 302
Summary
Minimum 317 319 232 239
Maximum 382 409 277 297 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Median 339 350 254 263
Consensus 341 350 254 268
History
30 days ago 340 350 256 271
60 days ago 338 349 257 274
90 days ago 338 351 259 277

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 48

 Brazil April 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 382 392 - -
Banco BMG 360 360 - -
Banco BV 355 355 - -
Barclays Capital 381 402 - -
BNP Paribas 342 350 - -
BTG Pactual 345 345 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 355 355 - -
Credicorp Capital 359 361 - -
Euromonitor Int. 380 404 - -
Fitch Ratings 360 364 - -
Fitch Solutions 369 386 - -
Goldman Sachs 355 342 - -
LCA Consultores 364 372 348 355
MB Associados - - 330 336
Moody's Analytics 370 422 - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 384 407 - -
Rabobank 362 371 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 364 371 - -
Torino Capital - - 343 -
UBS 355 355 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 346 346 - -
Summary
Minimum 342 342 330 336
Maximum 384 422 348 355
Median 361 367 343 345
Consensus 363 373 340 345
History
30 days ago 362 371 344 363
60 days ago 359 369 342 360
90 days ago 353 364 332 360

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, USD billion.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 49

 Brazil April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770
Population (million, 2019 est.): 213
Population density (per km2, 2019): 25.0
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 6.8
Language: Portuguese
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 18.3 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 70.4
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 14.9

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 11,221
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 12,565
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 578
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 516
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,363
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,029
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 464

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 4,093
Railways (km): 29,850
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,000,000
Waterways (km): 50,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem, Rio de Janeiro

Political Data
President: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last elections: 2 October 2022
Next elections: 2026
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic

orthodoxy inequalities Exports Imports
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure
diversified production creates bottleneck for economic
• Stable financial system growth
• Limited progress on privatization
• Strong foreign direct investment and deregulation
flows bolster capital account
.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 50

 Chile April 2024

Chile
Panelists upgrade growth projections
Economic overview: GDP growth moderated to 0.1% on a seasonally
adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 2023 from 0.8% in the third quarter.
Deteriorations in public spending, fixed investment and exports—the latter
linked to lower mining output—largely offset a recovery in private spending.
Over last year as a whole, the economy broadly stagnated, recording one
of the worst performances in Latin America. Early data for this year is more
upbeat, however: Economic activity outperformed market expectations by
a wide margin in January and February, accelerating in both year-on-year
and month-on-month terms thanks to lower interest rates and higher mining
output. In addition, business sentiment hit a near two-year high in March,
Oliver Reynolds boding well for investment. These indicators are in line with our panelists’
Economist forecasts for an acceleration in GDP growth in both annual and quarterly
terms in Q1.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for Chile’s economy to grow faster than the
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 Latin American average this year. Aggressive interest rate cuts and lower
GDP growth (%): 2.4 1.6 2.5 inflation will buttress domestic demand, while an expected rebound in copper
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.6 -2.2 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 35.4 40.4 40.3
output—following five straight years of contraction—should boost exports.
Inflation (%): 6.4 4.8 3.0 Progress on government efforts to lift pensions and taxes are key factors to
Current Account (% of GDP): -6.0 -3.5 -3.4
watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2% in 2024, which
is up by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.3% in
2025.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
Inflation: Inflation came in at 3.7% in March, down from February’s 4.5%
and moving back within the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. March’s
figure represented the weakest inflation rate since May 2021. Moreover, the
month-on-month price rise was a third below market expectations. Inflation
should average within the target range this year amid lower average
commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising
3.6% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 3.1% on average in 2025.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025

2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Monetary policy: On 2 April, Chile’s Central Bank cut the monetary policy
rate from 7.25% to 6.50%, aiming to boost economic activity amid falling
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
inflation. Rates have now been cut by 475 basis points over the last year.
With inflation expectations anchored at 3.0%, around 200 basis points of
additional cuts are anticipated by end-2024, according to our Consensus.
FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2024 at
4.63% and ending 2025 at 4.21%.

Currency: The peso traded at CLP 963 per USD on 12 April, unchanged
month on month. Looking ahead, our panelists expect the CLP to appreciate
from its current level by end-2024 thanks to eventual rate cuts by the Fed,
though the currency will remain vulnerable to swings in prices for copper—
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 Chile’s key merchandise exports. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
ending 2024 at CLP 907 per USD and ending 2025 at CLP 892 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 51

 Chile April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows in Q4

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP growth moderated to 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted
quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of 2023, from 0.8% in the third
quarter. On an annual basis, economic growth lost momentum, cooling to
0.4% in Q4, compared to the previous quarter’s 0.6% expansion.

Drivers: Household spending bounced back, growing 0.4% seasonally-

adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, which marked the best
reading since Q4 2021 (Q3: -0.3% s.a. qoq). Lower inflation and interest rates
likely supported private spending. Public spending deteriorated, contracting
0.3% in Q4 (Q3: +0.6% s.a. qoq). Fixed investment shrank at a quicker rate
of 3.5% in Q4, following the 2.3% contraction logged in the previous quarter.
Exports of goods and services dropped 0.9% in Q4 (Q3: +2.1% s.a. qoq),
Note: Year-on-year and seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP likely linked to lower copper output. Conversely, imports of goods and services
in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. dropped at a softer pace of 2.2% in Q4 (Q3: -2.7% s.a. qoq).

GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for the economy to accelerate in Q1 thanks

to looser financial conditions and lower inflation. In addition, the mining sector
appears to be experiencing a recovery in Q1, as suggested by economic
activity data for January.

Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio

Armella said:

“After eight quarters of consecutive sequential decline in final domestic

demand, our assessment is that the bulk of the macroeconomic adjustment
is now behind. We highlight firmer activity in the second half of 2023 and
a meaningful strengthening of activity in January where the IMACEC print
was revised up to +2.0% mom sa from 1.7% before, even as the December
contraction was similarly revised upwards to -0.6% mom sa from -1.0% mom
sa before. All in, we revised our growth forecast for 2024 up by 0.5pp to 2.2%
from 1.7% before.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2%

in 2024, which is up by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.3% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity records quickest growth since May

2022 in February
Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: Economic activity increased 4.5% compared to the same
month a year earlier in February, which was above January’s 2.3% increase
and triple market expectations. February’s print marked the best reading since
May 2022. The notable upturn came on the back of faster expansions in the
mining and non-mining sectors.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rose at a more

moderate pace of 0.8% in February (January: +2.0% mom). Meanwhile, the
trend improved, with the annual average growth of economic activity coming
in at 0.6%, up from January’s 0.3% reading.

Outlook: Taken together, the data for January and February is in line with our
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month growth rate in %. panelists’ forecasts for an acceleration in economic activity in Q1. That said,
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh).
our current Consensus likely underestimates the degree of the acceleration
in light of strong February data, and as such panelists’ Q1 GDP forecasts are
likely to be revised upwards in the coming weeks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 52

 Chile April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Business confidence hits highest reading since May

2022 in March
Business Confidence Latest reading: Business confidence rose to 46.3 in March from February’s
44.9. March’s result marked the best performance since May 2022. However,
the index remained below the 50-point threshold, signaling pessimism among
consumers.

March’s reading was driven by more upbeat sentiment in the retail, construction
and mining sectors.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see fixed investment expanding

0.1% in 2024, which is down by 0.8 percentage points from one month ago,
and expanding 3.0% in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since May 2021 in

Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate March
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. Latest reading: Inflation came in at 3.7% in March, down from February’s
4.5% and moving back within the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range.
March’s figure represented the weakest inflation rate since May 2021. The
Inflation | Consumer Price Index softer rise was primarily due to a slower increase in prices for food and non-
alcoholic beverages.

Annual average inflation fell to 5.7% in March (February: 6.3%). Meanwhile,

core inflation fell to 3.3% in March, from February’s 4.2%.

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.37% in March over the previous month,
a smaller increase than February’s 0.59% rise and well below market
expectations of 0.6%.

Panelist insight: On inflation and monetary policy, Itaú Unibanco analysts

said:
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE). “Looking ahead, notable upside risks stemming from electricity price
adjustments, continued passthrough from the CLP’s depreciation on tradable
items, while sequential employment growth and real wage growth of around
2.5% YoY could stall the services inflation adjustment. We project inflation to
end the year at 3.5%, with upside risks. We see the BCCh slowing the pace of
rate cuts to 50bps in the May 23 monetary policy meeting, as upside inflation
pressures persist.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

3.6% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 3.1% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts rates in April; signals further

cuts ahead
Monetary Policy Rate | in % Latest bank decision: On 2 April, the board of the Central Bank of Chile
(BCCH) cut the monetary policy rate (MPR) from 7.25% to 6.50%. Rates have
now fallen by 475 basis points since their peak last July.

Monetary policy drivers: The decision to continue to cut rates aimed to

boost economic activity amid sustained falls in headline and core inflation
since the middle of last year, notwithstanding an uptick in price pressures in
February. Moreover, inflation expectations for the coming two years were well-
anchored at the Bank’s 3.0% target.

Policy outlook: The Central Bank made clear that interest rates would be cut
further in the coming months. This is in line with our panelists’ projections: Our
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %. Consensus is for around 200 basis points of additional cuts by end-2024, with
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCH).
a spread among panelists’ end-2024 forecasts of 125 basis points.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 53

 Chile April 2024

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:

“Inflation above the target, lingering upside inflationary pressures, and a more
cautious Fed stance lead us to expect cuts of 50-bps in the near term, and
then eventually slowing to 25bps once the policy rate approaches the upper
end of the 3.5-4.5% neutral range.”

Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella had a similar view:

“The central bank still shows a willingness to continue with substantial cuts
in the next few meetings, and we see its inflation forecasts for 2024 as
conservative. We see our expectation for the central bank to slow its pace of
cuts to 50bps in the next two meetings and to 25bps in the two meetings in the
third quarter of the year.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate

ending 2024 at 4.63% and ending 2025 at 4.21%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 54

 Chile April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5
GDP per capita (USD) 14,549 13,070 16,010 15,235 16,805 16,083 17,393 18,857 19,910 21,431
GDP (USD bn) 278 254 315 302 335 323 351 383 407 440
GDP (CLP bn) 195,532 201,258 239,562 263,843 281,870 303,837 313,552 330,635 362,928 392,816
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 2.9 19.0 10.1 6.8 7.8 3.2 5.4 9.8 8.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.6 -6.1 11.3 2.1 0.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.7 -7.4 21.0 1.6 -5.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.6 -3.5 14.1 6.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.5 -10.8 16.0 3.9 -1.1 0.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.5 -0.9 -1.5 0.8 -0.3 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.7 -12.3 31.9 1.5 -12.0 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 0.7 -2.4 4.2 -4.6 -0.4 1.5 - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.2 0.2 27.1 -3.5 -7.2 6.5 5.3 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.2 10.6 9.1 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -7.3 -7.7 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.6 32.3 36.5 37.5 38.9 40.7 41.5 40.8 40.4 39.8
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 10.3 4.9 12.2 2.6 6.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.0 3.0 7.2 12.8 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 3.0 4.5 11.6 7.6 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 6.9 26.9 19.3 -4.8 6.8 0.7 - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 1.75 0.50 4.00 11.25 8.25 4.63 4.21 4.31 4.33 4.20
Overnight Interbank Interest Rate (%, eop) 1.74 0.30 4.00 11.25 9.00 4.75 - - - -
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.14 2.65 5.65 5.32 5.30 5.36 5.18 - - -
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 752 711 852 852 873 907 892 884 900 884
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 703 791 760 873 840 941 892 863 892 892
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14.5 -5.0 -23.0 -26.2 -11.9 -11.3 -12.3 -12.9 -13.8 -15.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -1.9 -7.3 -8.7 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.0 18.9 10.3 3.7 15.3 13.9 12.5 14.2 13.9 14.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 68.8 74.0 94.6 98.6 94.6 98.1 101.1 106.1 108.6 111.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 65.8 55.1 84.3 94.8 79.2 84.2 88.6 91.9 94.7 97.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -8.1 7.6 27.8 4.2 -4.1 3.7 3.1 4.9 2.4 2.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.6 -16.2 53.0 12.5 -16.4 6.3 5.2 3.7 3.1 2.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 14.4 10.8 13.2 19.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 40.7 39.2 51.3 39.2 46.4 46.4 47.8 50.5 51.9 52.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.4 8.5 7.3 5.0 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5
External Debt (USD bn) 198 208 235 230 241 242 254 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 71.4 82.0 74.7 76.1 71.8 74.8 72.2 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.6 0.4 1.8 2.7 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.4 -2.5 1.4 2.7 3.6 4.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.4 3.4 0.2 1.7 3.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.9 -5.7 -3.6 -2.6 -0.1 3.0 5.0 4.0 3.2 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.4 -1.2 2.7 5.2 6.1 5.1 - - - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -10.3 -8.1 6.3 4.7 8.5 4.2 - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.6 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.50 8.25 7.25 5.52 4.98 4.70 4.60 4.45 4.33 4.25
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.31 5.30 5.85 5.45 5.40 5.34 5.28 5.21 5.01 5.02
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 893 873 981 939 925 921 898 887 878 891
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.6 -4.4 -2.9 -3.9 -4.8 -3.8 -3.5 -3.8 -4.9 -4.2
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Copper Production (ann. var. %) -0.2 1.8 4.5 5.0 -4.4 -2.6 0.0 0.6 9.9 -
Economic Activity (IMACEC, mom s.a. var. %) 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 2.0 0.8 -
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) -0.3 2.2 -0.6 0.3 1.0 1.0 -0.7 2.3 4.5 -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -0.4 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 9.4 4.6 -2.0 6.5 8.8 -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -10.0 -8.2 -10.0 -4.0 -6.7 -2.5 -1.5 1.8 3.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.5 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.5 -
Consumer Confidence (OECD) 96.3 96.4 96.4 96.3 96.2 96.3 96.4 96.7 97.0 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 39.5 41.1 43.2 43.4 43.9 42.7 35.7 43.7 44.9 46.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.15 0.35 0.11 0.67 0.45 0.74 -0.54 0.67 0.59 0.37
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 7.6 6.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 3.9 3.8 4.5 3.7
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 802 840 857 893 898 868 873 932 967 981
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.9 -10.2 -1.9 -9.0 -4.8 -3.8 -15.2 2.8 -2.9 -13.7

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 55

 Chile April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 2.2 2.4
Actinver 1.8 2.3
AGPV 1.8 2.3
Allianz 1.6 2.5
Banchile Inversiones 2.2 -
Barclays Capital 2.0 1.7
BCI 2.6 1.6
BICE Inversiones 3.0 -
BTG Pactual 2.7 2.0
Capital Economics 2.3 2.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.5
Corficolombiana 2.3 -
Credicorp Capital 2.5 2.4
DekaBank 1.8 2.4
E2 Economia 1.9 2.1
EIU 2.0 2.4
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
EmergingMarketWatch 1.5 2.5
Euromonitor Int. 1.7 2.4
Fitch Ratings 1.8 2.3
Fitch Solutions 1.8 2.5
FrontierView 2.3 2.1
Gemines 3.0 2.0
Goldman Sachs 2.5 2.6
HSBC 2.0 2.4
Inversiones Security 2.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 2.4 2.0
JPMorgan 2.7 2.3
Julius Baer 1.8 3.1
Kiel Institute 1.6 2.3
LarrainVial Asset Management 2.3 1.7
Moody's Analytics 2.1 2.3
Oxford Economics 3.3 2.7
Pantheon Macroeconomics 3.0 2.5
Pezco Economics 2.4 2.3
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Rabobank 1.9 2.5
S&P Global Ratings 2.0 2.7
Santander 2.8 2.1
Scotiabank 3.0 2.5
Standard Chartered 1.8 2.5
Torino Capital 1.7 -
UBS 1.7 2.0
Public Forecasts
CAF 1.8 2.5
CEPAL* 1.9 -
IMF 1.9 2.5
OECD* 1.8 2.1
United Nations* 2.2 2.1
World Bank 2.0 2.2
Summary
Minimum 1.5 1.6
Maximum 3.3 3.1
Median 2.0 2.4
Consensus 2.2 2.3
History
30 days ago 1.8 2.4
60 days ago 1.8 2.4
Notes and sources 90 days ago 1.8 2.4
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 56

 Chile April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 2.2 2.0 -0.5 2.5
Banchile Inversiones 2.9 - 4.0 -
BCI 1.8 2.5 -1.8 2.5
BICE Inversiones 2.5 - -0.5 -
BTG Pactual 2.7 3.2 -3.1 4.5
Capital Economics 1.1 2.0 2.4 3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.8 2.4 2.0 3.4
Credicorp Capital 2.1 - -0.5 2.0
EIU 2.3 2.1 0.0 2.0
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.7 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.2
FrontierView 4.6 1.7 - -
Gemines 4.7 3.2 -1.4 2.8
Goldman Sachs 2.4 3.2 -1.5 3.9
HSBC 3.0 1.6 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Inversiones Security 1.2 - -2.6 -
LarrainVial Asset Management 2.4 1.7 -0.3 2.0
Moody's Analytics 3.2 2.4 -4.4 3.4
Oxford Economics 4.3 5.9 1.1 6.0
Pezco Economics 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.1
Rabobank 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.4
S&P Global Ratings 1.6 2.8 0.8 2.8
Santander 1.6 2.5 -2.6 3.1
Scotiabank 2.3 2.8 2.0 3.0
Torino Capital 1.5 - -0.3 -
UBS 1.8 2.4 2.0 3.0
Public Forecasts
CAF* 2.1 2.8 -1.0 2.2
IMF 1.6 2.2 1.8 3.0
OECD* 2.3 2.0 0.7 2.1
World Bank 1.9 2.1 0.2 2.4
Summary
Minimum 1.1 1.6 -4.4 2.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
Maximum 4.7 5.9 4.0 6.0
Median 2.2 2.4 0.0 2.8
Consensus 2.4 2.5 0.1 3.0
History
30 days ago 2.3 2.5 0.9 2.6
60 days ago 2.3 2.5 0.9 2.7
90 days ago 2.4 2.5 0.7 2.7

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 57

 Chile April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF - - 8.5 8.2
BICE Inversiones - - 7.7 -
BTG Pactual - - 8.5 8.1
Capital Economics - - 9.0 8.9
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 8.5 -
Credicorp Capital - - 8.5 -
EIU - - 8.9 8.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 8.6 8.3
Fitch Solutions - - 8.1 8.2
FrontierView - - 7.5 7.0
Gemines -0.4 - 8.7 8.5
HSBC - - 8.5 8.3
Inversiones Security 3.8 - 9.2 -
Oxford Economics - - 7.9 6.8
Pezco Economics - - 8.4 8.2 11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Rabobank 1.1 1.7 8.7 8.8
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.2 7.6
Scotiabank - - 8.0 7.8
Torino Capital - - 8.0 -
UBS - - 8.8 8.5
Public Forecasts
CAF - - 8.4 8.0
IMF - - 8.9 8.4
OECD* - - 7.9 7.4
Summary
Minimum -0.4 - 7.5 6.8
Maximum 3.8 - 9.2 8.9
Median 1.1 - 8.5 8.2
Consensus 1.5 - 8.4 8.1
History
30 days ago 0.6 - 8.4 8.1
60 days ago 1.1 1.7 8.5 8.1
90 days ago 1.1 - 8.4 8.0 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing output, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing output, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 58

 Chile April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF -2.2 -1.4 41.3 41.7
AGPV -2.0 -1.8 - -
Barclays Capital -2.4 -2.2 41.5 43.0
BCI -2.8 -2.4 - -
BTG Pactual -2.1 -2.0 41.6 42.9
Capital Economics -2.8 -2.8 39.0 39.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.9 -1.7 38.6 37.4
Credicorp Capital -2.4 -2.0 42.0 43.0
DekaBank -2.2 -1.8 - -
EIU -2.5 -2.4 41.2 42.2
Fitch Ratings -2.1 -2.1 41.4 42.5
Fitch Solutions -2.1 -2.3 40.3 41.7
Gemines -1.9 -1.2 41.0 42.5
Goldman Sachs -2.2 -2.0 40.4 41.5
HSBC -1.9 -1.5 41.2 41.5 15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
Inversiones Security -2.5 - 41.5 -
Moody's Analytics -3.2 -3.2 41.2 42.6
Oxford Economics -1.8 -1.2 36.8 35.8
Pezco Economics -2.8 -2.4 41.8 43.8
Rabobank -2.3 -2.1 41.3 42.4
Santander -2.1 -2.1 40.0 -
Scotiabank -2.3 -2.0 - -
Torino Capital -1.5 - - -
UBS -2.5 -2.3 41.5 42.3
Public Forecasts
CAF -1.9 -1.6 - -
IMF -2.1 -1.4 40.5 40.7
OECD* -2.3 -1.6 - -
World Bank -2.2 -2.0 41.3 41.6
Summary
Minimum -3.2 -3.2 36.8 35.8
Maximum -1.5 -1.2 42.0 43.8
Median -2.2 -2.0 41.2 42.2 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Consensus -2.2 -2.0 40.7 41.5
History
30 days ago -2.3 -2.0 40.8 41.5
60 days ago -2.3 -2.0 40.7 41.4
90 days ago -2.3 -2.1 40.9 41.8

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the DIPRES (Dirección de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 59

 Chile April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 3.3 3.1 3.7 2.9
Actinver 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.1
AGPV - - 4.1 3.5
Allianz - - 4.8 3.0
Banchile Inversiones 3.0 - 3.1 -
Barclays Capital 3.5 3.0 - -
BCI 3.8 3.0 - -
BICE Inversiones 4.2 - - -
BTG Pactual 3.9 3.0 3.7 3.1
Capital Economics 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.2
Corficolombiana 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.8
Credicorp Capital 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.0
DekaBank - - 3.2 3.0
E2 Economia 4.1 3.0 - - 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
EIU 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.1
EmergingMarketWatch 3.0 2.6 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.5 3.2
Fitch Ratings - - 3.5 3.0
Fitch Solutions 3.4 3.1 3.8 3.3
FrontierView - - 3.8 3.1
Gemines 3.8 3.3 4.2 2.6
Goldman Sachs 3.4 3.0 3.4 2.9
HSBC 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.3
Inversiones Security 3.5 - 4.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 4.1 3.1 - -
Julius Baer - - 3.0 2.1
Kiel Institute 3.7 3.0 3.7 3.1
LarrainVial Asset Management 4.3 3.4 4.0 3.8
Moody's Analytics 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.1
Oxford Economics 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.2
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 3.5 3.3
Pezco Economics 3.5 3.1 3.7 3.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Rabobank 3.8 3.0 3.9 3.0
S&P Global Ratings 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2
Santander 3.7 2.8 3.9 2.9
Scotiabank 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2
Standard Chartered - - 4.3 3.2
Torino Capital 3.1 - 3.2 -
UBS 3.3 2.8 3.5 2.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.3
IMF 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.0
OECD* - - 3.9 3.4
United Nations* - - 3.3 2.9
World Bank - - 3.3 3.0
Summary
Minimum 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.1
Maximum 4.3 4.0 4.8 3.8
Median 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.1
Consensus 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.1 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.0
60 days ago 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.1
90 days ago 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.1

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 60

 Chile April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 4.75 4.00
Actinver 4.50 4.00
AGPV 5.00 4.50
Banchile Inversiones 4.00 -
Barclays Capital 4.75 4.50
BCI 4.50 4.00
BICE Inversiones 5.00 -
BTG Pactual 4.75 4.00
Capital Economics 4.50 3.75
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.00 5.00
Corficolombiana 4.50 -
Credicorp Capital 5.00 4.00
EIU 4.25 4.00
Fitch Solutions 5.00 4.00
Gemines 4.50 4.50
Goldman Sachs 4.50 4.50
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
HSBC 5.00 4.50
Inversiones Security 4.50 -
Itaú Unibanco 5.25 4.50
JPMorgan 5.25 -
LarrainVial Asset Management 4.50 4.00
Oxford Economics 4.00 3.25
Pantheon Macroeconomics 4.00 4.00
Rabobank 4.50 4.50
S&P Global Ratings 5.00 5.00
Santander 4.50 4.00
Scotiabank 4.50 4.25
UBS 4.00 4.00
Public Forecasts
CAF* 5.25 4.00
Summary
Minimum 4.00 3.25
Maximum 5.25 5.00
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution Median 4.50 4.00
Consensus 4.63 4.21
History
30 days ago 4.42 4.21
60 days ago 4.56 4.25
90 days ago 4.82 4.28

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas).
Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INE.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). Source: BCCh.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 61

 Chile April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 860 860
Actinver 890 870
AGPV 830 830
Banchile Inversiones 790 -
Barclays Capital 950 940
BCI 870 840
BICE Inversiones 880 -
BTG Pactual 870 860
Capital Economics 925 900
Citigroup Global Mkts 977 872
Credicorp Capital 920 -
E2 Economia 890 870
EIU 993 990
Fitch Ratings 850 850
Fitch Solutions 960 930
Gemines 925 897
29 | CLP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | CLP per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
HSBC 880 -
Inversiones Security 880 -
Itaú Unibanco 920 850
JPMorgan 970 -
Julius Baer 1,037 968
LarrainVial Asset Management 890 870
Moody's Analytics 875 866
Oxford Economics 931 889
Pezco Economics 903 929
Rabobank 890 870
S&P Global Ratings 975 985
Santander 890 900
Scotiabank 870 870
Standard Chartered 920 860
Torino Capital 894 -
UBS 925 915
Public Forecasts
CAF 900 900
31 | CLP per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Summary
Minimum 790 830
Maximum 1,037 990
Median 894 871
Consensus 907 892
History
30 days ago 889 867
60 days ago 877 861
90 days ago 864 852

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 62

 Chile April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF -3.4 -3.4 16.5 18.2
Barclays Capital -3.6 -3.6 17.9 17.2
BCI -2.6 -2.2 - -
BICE Inversiones -3.2 - - -
BTG Pactual -3.5 -3.8 11.1 9.7
Capital Economics -3.3 -3.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.5 -3.7 12.8 10.9
Credicorp Capital -3.5 -3.2 - -
DekaBank -3.8 -3.0 - -
EIU -3.9 -3.1 15.0 17.2
Euromonitor Int. -5.5 -5.4 - -
Fitch Ratings -4.1 -4.2 10.2 9.9
Fitch Solutions -4.3 -4.4 15.5 16.4
Gemines -4.2 -4.7 12.6 9.7
Goldman Sachs -3.1 -3.5 13.8 13.2 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
HSBC -4.0 -4.1 10.9 8.8
Inversiones Security -3.0 - 18.3 -
Moody's Analytics -2.2 -2.7 - -
Oxford Economics -4.2 -4.9 12.9 8.0
Pezco Economics -3.2 -3.0 8.8 10.5
Rabobank -3.2 -2.6 14.7 10.3
Santander -3.0 -2.9 17.1 16.4
Scotiabank -2.0 -2.0 - -
Standard Chartered -3.8 -3.7 - -
Torino Capital -2.8 - 18.7 -
UBS -3.5 -3.7 13.4 12.3
Public Forecasts
CAF -3.8 -3.5 - -
IMF -3.4 -3.3 - -
OECD* -4.0 -3.5 - -
World Bank -3.6 -3.4 - -
Summary
Minimum -5.5 -5.4 8.8 8.0 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Maximum -2.0 -2.0 18.7 18.2
Median -3.5 -3.4 13.8 10.9
Consensus -3.5 -3.5 13.9 12.5
History
30 days ago -3.4 -3.6 13.3 11.7
60 days ago -3.5 -3.7 13.4 11.8
90 days ago -3.6 -3.6 13.1 12.0

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 63

 Chile April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 101.2 106.7 84.7 88.5
Barclays Capital 101.5 102.5 83.6 85.3
BTG Pactual 91.7 95.5 80.6 85.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 95.5 97.7 82.7 86.8
EIU 98.1 104.9 83.1 87.8
Euromonitor Int. 93.6 99.9 - -
Fitch Ratings 100.8 100.8 90.6 90.9
Fitch Solutions 99.5 103.8 84.0 87.3
Gemines 97.4 101.3 84.8 91.6
Goldman Sachs 99.3 104.2 85.5 91.1
HSBC 95.2 99.8 84.3 91.0
Inversiones Security 99.1 - 80.7 -
Oxford Economics 88.8 87.9 75.9 79.9
Pezco Economics 104.5 107.6 95.6 97.1
Rabobank 99.6 102.8 84.9 92.5 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Santander 90.7 96.2 73.6 79.8
Torino Capital 106.5 - 87.8 -
UBS 102.2 105.8 88.9 93.4
Public Forecasts
CAF* 100.6 103.0 89.0 93.0
IMF* 100.2 103.8 89.5 90.0
Summary
Minimum 88.8 87.9 73.6 79.8
Maximum 106.5 107.6 95.6 97.1
Median 99.2 101.9 84.3 88.5
Consensus 98.1 101.1 84.2 88.6
History
30 days ago 98.6 101.2 85.3 89.5
60 days ago 99.0 101.5 85.6 89.7
90 days ago 99.6 102.0 86.4 90.1

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 64

 Chile April 2024

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 44.0 45.0 - -
Barclays Capital 52.6 49.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 42.5 42.5 - -
EIU 48.3 48.1 237 241
Euromonitor Int. 47.3 50.0 - -
Fitch Ratings 47.8 48.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 49.7 49.7 - -
Gemines 46.0 46.0 246 252
Goldman Sachs 46.3 51.7 - -
Inversiones Security 46.5 - 245 -
Moody's Analytics 47.9 51.3 - -
Oxford Economics 41.8 42.8 255 280
Rabobank 46.3 50.0 226 243
Torino Capital 44.0 - - -
UBS 45.1 45.7 - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evol. of forecasts
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - 254 261
Summary
Minimum 41.8 42.5 226 241
Maximum 52.6 51.7 255 280
Median 46.3 48.9 245 247
Consensus 46.4 47.8 242 254
History
30 days ago 46.1 47.4 238 249
60 days ago 46.2 47.5 240 250
90 days ago 45.8 47.4 248 256

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 65

 Chile April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m)
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102
Population (million, 2019 est.): 19.7
Population density (per km2, 2019): 26.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 79.4
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 3.6
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 16.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 134
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 82.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 419
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,503
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 72.0
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 357
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.4

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 481
Railways (km): 7,282
Roadways (km): 77,801 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %

Political Data
President: Gabriel Boric
Last elections: 21 November 2021
Next elections: 2025
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Rosanna Costa

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: A2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Market-oriented policy • High dependence on copper

• Structurally sound and prudent exports
Exports Imports
fiscal policy • Relatively small domestic
• Free trade agreements with market
major economic areas • Political uncertainty surrounding
new constitution

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 66

 Colombia April 2024

Colombia
Private spending to drive 2024 GDP growth
Economic overview: Our Consensus is for the economy to have recorded
softer annual growth in Q1 compared to Q4, mainly owing to a high base of
comparison. That said, available data is upbeat: Economic activity growth
gained steam in January to 1.6% year on year (December: +0.1% yoy). The
improvement reflected stronger increases in agriculture and services, which
outweighed a steeper fall in industry. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI
showed conditions in the sector improved robustly through Q1. Meanwhile,
consumer sentiment was less pessimistic on average in Q1 than in the prior
three months, and average inflation was below Q4 in Q1. Consequently,
the Central Bank was able to speed up the pace of its loosening cycle in
Marta Casanovas March. Less positively, the unemployment rate averaged higher in January–
Economist February than in Q4.

GDP outlook: GDP growth will accelerate this year from 2023’s moderation;
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages lower inflation and interest rates will benefit private consumption. However,
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 the government’s interventionist agenda will discourage private investment,
GDP growth (%): 3.6 1.5 3.0 capping the recovery. Downside risks include political instability, social
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.7 -4.4 -3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP): 62.9 58.7 58.4
unrest and a resurgence in organized crime and violence. FocusEconomics
Inflation (%): 5.4 7.4 3.2 panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage
Current Account (% of GDP): -5.1 -3.1 -3.4
points from one month ago, and expanding 2.7% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation fell to an over two-year low of 7.4% in March (February:

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 7.7%). Similarly, core inflation receded to 7.6% (February: 8.1%). Disinflation
will continue through Q4, although average inflation will remain above
the Central Bank (BanRep)’s 2.0–4.0% target range. The performance
of the peso is a two-sided risk; planned fiscal stimulus is an upside risk.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 6.4% on average in
2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
4.0% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 22 March meeting, BanRep accelerated the pace

of its loosening cycle: It slashed the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
points—in line with market expectations—to 12.25%. The bigger cut was
driven by the continued deceleration of inflation through February. Our
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
panelists see 150–625 basis points of additional cuts this year. The next
meeting is set for 30 April. FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest
rate ending 2024 at 8.21% and ending 2025 at 5.78%.

Currency: The peso traded at COP 3,820 per USD on 12 April, appreciating
2.3% month on month. Despite recent gains, our panelists expect the peso
to gradually weaken from current levels against the dollar through the end
of 2024. Depreciatory pressure will stem from a narrowing positive interest
rate differential with the U.S. Fed and widening fiscal and current account
deficits. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at COP 4,038
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 per USD and ending 2025 at COP 4,057 per USD.
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 67

 Colombia April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth gains momentum in January

Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: Economic activity grew 1.6% year on year in January
(December: +0.1% yoy). Looking at the details of the release, January’s upturn
was largely due to improvements in the agriculture and services sectors.

On a monthly basis, economic activity grew 2.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

in January, significantly above December’s 0.2% uptick and marked the best
result since September 2021. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the
annual average growth of economic activity coming in at 0.4%, down from
December’s 0.6%.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3%

in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %.
expanding 2.7% in 2025.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI softens in March amid economic
challenges
Purchasing Managers’ Index Latest reading: The Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in March from 51.2 in February. As a result,
the index remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold but signaled a softer
improvement in manufacturing sector operating conditions compared to the
previous month.

March’s downtick reflected new orders falling for the first time in four months—
albeit only mildly—due to demand reduction and a challenging underlying
economic environment. Moreover, output growth slowed from the prior month,
though resilient demand for certain items and new product launches supported
production. More positively, job creation hit a near one-year high.

Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate Regarding prices, companies attempted to stimulate demand by reducing
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
deterioration.
selling prices for the first time in five months. Conversely, input prices continued
Source: S&P Global and Davivienda. to rise, albeit at a slower pace. Lastly, business sentiment was dampened by
concerns over public policy and unemployment, despite optimism regarding
higher sales and the launch of new products. This mixed sentiment reflects
the complex environment manufacturers are navigating.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production

expanding 0.1% in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and expanding 3.4% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer sentiment deteriorates further in March

Consumer Sentiment Latest reading: Consumer sentiment fell to a three-month low of minus 13.0
in March, deteriorating from February’s minus 9.4. As such, the index moved
further below the 0-point threshold, indicating starker pessimism among
consumers.

The downturn in the headline reading chiefly reflected consumers becoming

more pessimistic regarding the country’s general economic situation in the
coming year.

Outlook: Sentiment remained deeply pessimistic in Q1, boding ill for private
spending in the quarter and ahead. In Q1, inflation averaged below Q4 but
remained above the Central Bank’s target, which will likely continue to dampen
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic
sentiment in the coming months.
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.
Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption
expanding 1.4% in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and
expanding 2.5% in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 68

 Colombia April 2024

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level in over two years in

March
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation came in at 7.4% in March, down from February’s
7.7%. March’s result marked the weakest inflation rate since January 2022.
The moderation was broad-based, with reduced price pressures for housing
and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels.

Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in
at 10.3% in March (February: 10.8%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 7.6% in
March from the previous month’s 8.1%.

Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.70% over the previous month in March, a
smaller increase than the 1.09% rise logged in February.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for the disinflation process to continue through

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). at least the fourth quarter of 2025. Our panelists expect average inflation
to return within the Central Bank’s target band of 2.0–4.0% in H2 2025 but
remain above its mid-point. The disinflation process will likely slow once the
impact of interest rate cuts trickles down to the real economy.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

6.4% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 4.0% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank hastens loosening cycle in March

Monetary Policy Rate | In % Latest bank decision: At its 22 March meeting, the Board of Directors of
the Central Bank of Colombia (BanRep) accelerated the pace of its loosening
cycle; it slashed interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the benchmark
interest rate to 12.25%. The decision, which followed January’s 25 basis point
reduction, was again not unanimous: One of the seven members preferred
a 75 basis point cut, and another a 100 basis point reduction. Markets had
largely anticipated the move.

Monetary policy drivers: The decision was driven by the continued

deceleration of both headline and core inflation through February, which fell
to 7.7% and 7.3%, respectively. Similarly, the Bank downwardly revised its
inflation expectations and sees inflation receding close to the 3.0% mid-point
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %. target—with a plus or minus 1.0 tolerance band—by mid-2025.
Source: Colombia Central Bank (BanRep).

Regarding activity, BanRep upwardly revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to
1.1% from 0.8% in its January meeting.

Policy outlook: BanRep’s communiqué was again void of explicit forward

guidance, and its tone was unchanged from that of January’s meeting. The
Bank noted that the current interest rate level remains consistent with the goal
of returning inflation to target.

All of our panelists expect additional rate cuts this year, although the spread
remains wide at 150–625 basis points worth of further reductions. The Bank’s
next meeting is scheduled for 30 April.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate

ending 2024 at 8.21% and ending 2025 at 5.78%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 69

 Colombia April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 49.4 50.4 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3 54.8
GDP per capita (USD) 6,541 5,367 6,242 6,692 6,972 8,054 8,445 9,150 9,498 10,183
GDP (USD bn) 323 270 319 345 364 424 449 492 515 558
GDP (COP tn) 1,060 998 1,193 1,470 1,573 1,681 1,807 2,033 2,179 2,388
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 -5.8 19.4 23.2 7.0 6.9 7.5 12.5 7.2 9.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 -7.2 10.8 7.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.1 -5.0 14.7 10.7 1.1 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.3 -0.8 9.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.3 3.1 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.2 -23.6 16.7 11.5 -8.9 -0.5 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.1 -22.5 14.6 12.3 3.1 2.6 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.3 -20.1 26.7 23.6 -14.7 2.7 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.2
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 -8.1 16.2 10.6 -4.9 0.1 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.1 -1.5 12.3 9.2 -4.0 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.9 16.7 13.8 11.2 10.2 10.5 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -7.8 -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -4.9 -4.0 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 50.3 65.0 63.0 60.8 57.2 59.1 59.8 58.7 58.6 58.0
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.7 14.3 11.8 12.1 7.2 7.8 6.4 6.5 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.8 1.6 5.6 13.1 9.3 5.2 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 2.5 3.5 10.2 11.7 6.4 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 -0.8 17.0 29.6 0.6 1.7 3.7 - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 1.75 3.00 12.00 13.00 8.21 5.78 5.11 5.32 5.23
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.48 1.89 3.21 13.70 12.69 8.40 5.58 4.93 5.62 5.56
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.42 5.76 8.46 13.22 9.94 9.71 8.57 7.56 7.88 -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,277 3,433 3,981 4,810 3,822 4,038 4,057 4,006 4,117 4,134
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 3,281 3,693 3,743 4,255 4,325 3,961 4,020 4,135 4,229 4,281
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14.8 -9.3 -18.0 -21.4 -9.7 -13.0 -15.3 -17.0 -17.5 -18.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -3.4 -5.6 -6.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -9.9 -8.9 -14.0 -12.2 -6.9 -7.9 -8.7 -9.5 -10.0 -6.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 40.7 32.3 42.7 59.5 52.5 56.2 57.8 60.8 62.9 68.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 50.5 41.2 56.7 71.7 59.4 64.1 66.5 70.2 72.9 74.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -5.4 -20.5 32.3 39.2 -11.7 7.1 2.9 5.0 3.6 9.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.3 -18.5 37.7 26.3 -17.1 8.0 3.8 5.5 3.8 2.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 14.0 7.5 9.4 17.0 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 53.2 59.0 58.6 57.3 59.6 59.5 60.7 59.1 59.9 61.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.6 17.2 12.4 9.6 12.0 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.9 9.9
External Debt (USD bn) 139 155 171 184 196 209 224 236 249 264
External Debt (% of GDP) 42.9 57.2 53.8 53.2 54.0 49.4 49.8 48.1 48.4 47.4
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 1.5 1.0 -1.4 0.2 2.8 1.7 1.4 2.7 3.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -10.9 -14.0 -8.4 -1.4 0.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.3 7.0 2.5 2.6 3.1 1.2 2.1 2.5 3.6 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -23.1 -12.8 -4.6 1.8 8.2 6.6 5.0 6.2 5.2 5.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.4 9.4 11.2 10.4 10.2 9.7 11.2 10.3 10.1 9.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.4 10.0 7.8 6.8 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 13.25 13.00 12.25 11.19 9.81 8.50 7.41 6.61 6.03 5.79
90-day DTF (%, eop) 13.01 12.69 10.94 10.79 9.50 8.33 7.25 6.41 5.87 5.68
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 11.87 9.94 10.32 10.86 10.69 10.42 8.90 8.15 7.95 7.95
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,054 3,822 3,842 3,988 4,009 4,024 4,006 4,014 4,027 4,044
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.6 -3.4
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.7 -1.1 1.1 -0.8 -0.6 1.1 0.2 2.2 - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 1.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -1.0 1.9 0.1 1.6 - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -4.9 -7.2 -8.6 -6.9 -5.9 -6.4 -6.8 -4.3 - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -11.1 -3.8 -5.6 -3.6 -7.6 -3.3 -2.7 -4.1 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 9.3 9.6 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 10.0 12.7 11.7 -
Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 49.8 48.4 46.8 47.8 48.1 49.4 52.0 55.1 51.2 50.6
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -14.1 -17.4 -18.8 -17.9 -14.0 -20.9 -17.3 -7.9 -9.4 -13.0
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.53 0.25 0.47 0.46 0.91 1.09 0.70
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 12.1 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.3 8.3 7.7 7.4
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,191 3,923 4,085 4,054 4,061 3,981 3,822 3,926 3,934 3,842
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -26.9 -30.1 -10.1 -13.6 -1.4 -9.0 -4.2 1.3 - -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Due to the absence of a standard definition, the Consensus Forecast for public debt contains a range of
definitions.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 70

 Colombia April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012 - 2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 1.2 2.8
AGPV 1.8 2.5
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 1.3 2.8
Allianz 1.5 2.5
Asobancaria 1.2 3.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia 0.7 2.6
Banco Davivienda 1.5 3.0
Banco de Bogotá 1.0 2.5
Bancolombia 0.6 2.4
Barclays Capital 1.8 2.8
BBVA Research 1.5 2.8
BTG Pactual 1.7 2.6
CABI 1.9 -
Capital Economics 1.0 2.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.6
Corficolombiana 1.3 2.0
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Credicorp Capital 1.1 2.8
DekaBank 1.8 3.5
E2 Economia 1.8 2.7
Ecoanalítica 2.5 4.3
Econosignal 1.5 2.7
EIU 1.2 3.0
EmergingMarketWatch 1.7 -
Euromonitor Int. 1.4 2.8
Fedesarrollo 1.8 3.0
Fitch Ratings 1.1 2.8
Fitch Solutions 1.3 2.2
FrontierView 1.1 2.5
Goldman Sachs 1.4 2.9
HSBC 1.2 2.0
Itaú Unibanco 1.0 2.6
JPMorgan 1.6 2.7
Julius Baer 0.0 3.2
Kiel Institute 1.3 2.6
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Moody's Analytics 1.5 2.8
Oxford Economics 1.0 2.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics 1.5 2.6
Pezco Economics 1.5 1.9
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 1.3 2.0
Rabobank 1.6 2.7
S&P Global Ratings 1.1 2.8
Scotiabank Colpatria 1.4 2.2
Sectorial 1.7 2.7
Standard Chartered 1.3 3.1
Torino Capital 0.8 -
UBS 1.4 2.6
Public Forecasts
CAF* 2.2 3.1
CEPAL* 1.7 -
IMF 1.1 2.5
OECD* 1.4 3.0
United Nations* 1.7 2.8
World Bank 1.3 3.2
Summary
Minimum 0.0 1.9
Maximum 2.5 4.3
Notes and sources Median 1.3 2.7
Consensus 1.3 2.7
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
History
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 30 days ago 1.4 2.7
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute 60 days ago 1.5 2.7
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus 90 days ago 1.5 2.7
Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 71

 Colombia April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 0.8 2.1 0.8 4.8
Asobancaria 1.9 - -4.2 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia 0.9 2.3 - -
Banco Davivienda 1.7 - 1.0 -
Bancolombia 0.1 2.1 - -
Barclays Capital 2.5 3.7 1.1 4.8
BBVA Research 1.9 3.2 -0.1 6.0
BTG Pactual 2.2 3.5 2.0 3.1
Capital Economics 1.3 2.3 -3.8 3.2
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.6 -9.8 3.6
Corficolombiana 0.9 - -6.0 -
Credicorp Capital 1.5 - - -
Ecoanalítica 3.4 4.3 - -
EIU 1.6 3.2 - -
Euromonitor Int. 1.3 2.2 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Fedesarrollo 2.0 3.3 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.4 2.4 - -
FrontierView 1.7 3.1 - -
Goldman Sachs 2.2 3.2 -6.8 2.7
HSBC 0.9 1.7 0.8 2.5
Moody's Analytics 1.6 2.7 -3.9 2.9
Oxford Economics -2.6 -1.7 3.6 11.1
Pezco Economics 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.6
Rabobank 1.8 2.7 5.8 6.7
S&P Global Ratings 1.4 2.8 - -
Scotiabank Colpatria 0.7 1.7 -1.4 0.8
Torino Capital 2.1 - 8.9 -
UBS 1.5 2.5 - -
Public Forecasts
CAF* - - 2.1 3.5
OECD* 0.3 1.9 1.2 7.7
World Bank 0.6 2.7 1.0 5.5
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum -2.6 -1.7 -9.8 0.8
Maximum 3.4 4.3 8.9 11.1
Median 1.5 2.7 0.8 3.6
Consensus 1.4 2.5 -0.5 4.4
History
30 days ago 1.4 2.5 0.1 4.1
60 days ago 1.4 2.5 0.8 4.2
90 days ago 1.4 2.4 0.7 4.4

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 72

 Colombia April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 0.3 2.7 11.4 11.3
Asobancaria - - 10.4 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -1.2 2.1 10.5 11.0
Banco de Bogotá - - 11.1 10.9
Bancolombia - - 10.8 10.8
BBVA Research - - 10.7 10.5
BTG Pactual - - 10.4 10.3
Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 9.3 9.2
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 11.0 9.9
Corficolombiana - - 11.0 -
Credicorp Capital - - 10.6 -
E2 Economia 0.1 4.3 - -
Econosignal - - 10.4 10.5
EIU 3.3 6.2 8.9 8.1
Euromonitor Int. -2.7 2.8 11.1 10.8 11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Fitch Solutions - - 10.7 10.0
FrontierView - - 10.8 10.1
Moody's Analytics -0.4 3.1 10.0 9.6
Oxford Economics -2.0 4.4 9.8 10.0
Pezco Economics 1.8 2.5 10.4 10.1
Positiva Compañía de Seguros - - 11.0 11.5
Rabobank - - 9.4 8.9
S&P Global Ratings - - 10.9 10.4
Sectorial - - 10.4 10.2
Torino Capital - - 11.0 -
UBS - - 11.0 9.9
Public Forecasts
CAF* - - 10.7 10.6
IMF* - - 10.4 10.0
OECD* - - 10.2 10.0
Summary
Minimum -2.7 2.0 8.9 8.1
Maximum 3.3 6.2 11.4 11.5 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Median 0.1 2.8 10.7 10.2
Consensus 0.1 3.4 10.5 10.2
History
30 days ago 0.3 3.0 10.5 10.2
60 days ago 1.0 3.0 10.5 10.1
90 days ago 1.2 3.1 10.5 10.1

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing production, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 73

 Colombia April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores -5.0 -4.5 58.0 57.0
AGPV -4.0 -3.5 - -
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -5.3 -4.3 - -
Asobancaria -5.9 - 57.8 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -5.3 -3.5 - -
Banco Davivienda -5.3 - - -
Banco de Bogotá -5.3 -4.2 - -
Bancolombia -4.9 -4.6 60.1 61.7
Barclays Capital - - 60.7 61.6
BBVA Research -5.2 -3.9 59.8 60.0
BTG Pactual -5.9 -5.0 57.6 57.3
CABI -4.5 - 59.0 -
Capital Economics -5.3 -5.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.2 -3.4 57.0 56.9
Corficolombiana -4.4 - 61.5 - 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Credicorp Capital -4.9 - 55.5 -
DekaBank -4.3 -3.9 - -
Econosignal -4.7 -4.0 - -
EIU -5.1 -4.3 - -
Fedesarrollo -4.6 -3.9 60.2 60.3
Fitch Solutions - - 61.2 62.0
Goldman Sachs -6.1 -4.0 - -
HSBC -5.3 -4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 67.0 69.9
Oxford Economics -5.3 -3.8 58.6 58.7
Pezco Economics -2.7 -3.0 59.2 59.2
Rabobank -4.5 -4.2 57.7 57.2
Scotiabank Colpatria -4.5 - 56.0 -
Torino Capital -3.9 - 60.0 -
UBS -5.5 -4.3 59.5 59.9
Public Forecasts
CAF* -4.5 -3.5 56.4 56.4
IMF -5.3 -4.5 54.4 55.6 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
World Bank -3.5 -3.0 60.4 59.3
Summary
Minimum -6.1 -5.0 54.4 55.6
Maximum -2.7 -3.0 67.0 69.9
Median -5.0 -4.0 59.2 59.3
Consensus -4.9 -4.0 59.1 59.8
History
30 days ago -4.7 -4.0 59.2 60.0
60 days ago -4.6 -3.9 57.8 57.1
90 days ago -4.4 -3.8 58.1 56.9

17 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the Colombian
Ministry of Finance & Public Credit (MINHACIENDA). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

15 Central government balance, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: MINHACIENDA.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Colombia April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 6.0 3.8 6.8 4.5
AGPV 4.5 4.2 - -
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 5.6 3.8 - -
Allianz - - 5.8 3.6
Asobancaria 5.3 3.7 6.5 4.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia 5.8 3.9 6.7 4.7
Banco Davivienda 5.1 - 6.4 -
Banco de Bogotá 5.7 3.6 4.9 3.4
Bancolombia 5.7 4.3 6.8 4.8
Barclays Capital 4.5 3.7 6.3 3.7
BBVA Research 5.4 3.8 6.7 4.2
BTG Pactual 5.1 3.1 6.5 3.9
CABI 5.2 - - -
Capital Economics 4.5 4.4 6.0 4.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.4 3.0 5.9 3.6 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Corficolombiana 5.5 3.8 6.7 4.2
Credicorp Capital 5.5 - 7.1 -
DekaBank - - 5.2 3.4
E2 Economia 4.9 3.0 - -
Ecoanalítica 4.9 3.6 5.9 4.2
Econosignal 5.4 3.9 6.2 4.1
EIU 4.5 3.0 5.8 3.2
EmergingMarketWatch 5.2 - - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 6.4 4.2
Fitch Ratings - - 8.3 4.9
Fitch Solutions 4.9 3.2 6.9 4.0
FrontierView - - 4.5 3.5
Goldman Sachs 5.8 3.5 6.5 4.3
HSBC 5.4 3.8 7.2 4.6
Itaú Unibanco 5.2 3.0 - -
Julius Baer - - 6.6 3.8
Kiel Institute 5.0 3.7 5.7 4.1
Moody's Analytics 5.5 3.7 6.7 4.1 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 4.9 4.0 6.6 3.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 6.2 3.8
Pezco Economics 5.8 4.3 7.5 5.0
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 5.4 3.4 6.7 4.0
Rabobank 5.4 4.0 6.6 4.3
S&P Global Ratings 5.5 3.5 6.4 3.9
Scotiabank Colpatria 5.5 3.7 6.7 4.0
Sectorial 6.4 4.2 7.2 4.9
Standard Chartered - - 6.0 3.2
Torino Capital 3.8 - 6.2 -
UBS 5.4 3.9 6.7 4.2
Public Forecasts
CAF* 5.0 3.6 7.0 4.3
IMF 5.3 3.0 6.4 3.6
OECD* - - 6.3 4.0
United Nations* - - 4.9 3.8
World Bank - - 6.4 3.8
Summary 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
Minimum 3.8 3.0 4.5 3.2
Maximum 6.4 4.4 8.3 5.0
Median 5.4 3.7 6.5 4.0
Consensus 5.2 3.7 6.4 4.0
History
30 days ago 5.1 3.7 6.3 4.1
60 days ago 5.1 3.7 6.3 4.1
90 days ago 5.1 3.8 6.4 4.1

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 75

 Colombia April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 9.00 5.25
AGPV 7.00 6.00
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 7.50 5.00
Asobancaria 8.25 5.75
Banco Agrario de Colombia 8.50 5.00
Banco Davivienda 8.00 -
Banco de Bogotá 8.25 5.75
Bancolombia 8.75 6.00
Barclays Capital 8.00 7.00
BBVA Research 7.00 5.50
BTG Pactual 7.75 5.50
CABI 7.00 -
Capital Economics 9.00 6.50
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.50 5.50
Corficolombiana 8.00 6.00
Credicorp Capital 6.00 -
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
Ecoanalítica 7.00 4.50
Econosignal 8.00 -
EIU 8.75 4.75
Fedesarrollo 7.75 5.50
Fitch Ratings 8.00 5.50
Fitch Solutions 8.75 5.25
Goldman Sachs 9.25 5.50
HSBC 8.50 7.50
Itaú Unibanco 8.75 6.00
JPMorgan 8.25 -
Oxford Economics 10.75 7.25
Pantheon Macroeconomics 9.25 6.00
Rabobank 8.50 6.00
S&P Global Ratings 9.00 7.00
Scotiabank Colpatria 8.25 5.50
Sectorial 8.75 5.25
Torino Capital 7.00 -
UBS 8.00 5.50
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Public Forecasts
CAF* 7.25 6.00
Summary
Minimum 6.00 4.50
Maximum 10.75 7.50
Median 8.25 5.50
Consensus 8.21 5.78
History
30 days ago 8.10 5.79
60 days ago 8.18 5.82
90 days ago 8.25 5.87

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep,
Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 76

 Colombia April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 4,180 4,185
AGPV 4,100 4,100
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 3,800 3,400
Asobancaria 3,857 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia 3,960 3,925
Banco de Bogotá 3,850 3,950
Bancolombia 4,100 4,270
Barclays Capital 4,200 4,368
BBVA Research 4,365 4,365
BTG Pactual 4,180 4,080
Capital Economics 4,300 4,500
Citigroup Global Mkts 3,829 3,805
Corficolombiana 4,140 4,170
Credicorp Capital 4,150 -
E2 Economia 3,900 3,850
Ecoanalítica 3,597 3,378
29 | COP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | COP per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Econosignal 4,200 -
EIU 3,707 3,663
Fitch Ratings 4,281 4,366
Fitch Solutions 4,050 4,100
HSBC 4,150 -
Itaú Unibanco 4,000 4,000
JPMorgan 4,150 -
Julius Baer 4,176 4,175
Moody's Analytics 3,941 4,007
Oxford Economics 4,004 4,228
Pezco Economics 3,973 4,094
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,950 4,050
Rabobank 4,085 4,110
S&P Global Ratings 4,000 4,100
Scotiabank Colpatria 4,116 4,150
Sectorial 3,915 3,887
Standard Chartered 3,700 4,170
Torino Capital 4,186 -
31 | COP per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
UBS 4,240 4,200
Public Forecasts
CAF* 3,900 3,800
Summary
Minimum 3,597 3,378
Maximum 4,365 4,500
Median 4,085 4,100
Consensus 4,038 4,057
History
30 days ago 4,059 4,073
60 days ago 4,072 4,075
90 days ago 4,129 4,117

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 77

 Colombia April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores -3.2 -4.0 -12.7 -9.5
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -2.9 -3.5 - -
Asobancaria -3.6 -4.0 - -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -3.3 -3.9 - -
Banco Davivienda -2.8 - -9.5 -
Banco de Bogotá -2.9 -3.3 - -
Bancolombia -2.7 -3.0 - -
Barclays Capital -3.1 -3.5 - -
BBVA Research -3.4 -3.9 -14.2 -16.2
BTG Pactual -3.1 -3.4 - -
Capital Economics -2.8 -3.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.8 -2.6 -7.7 -7.8
Corficolombiana -2.7 - -7.8 -
Credicorp Capital -2.9 - -7.7 -
DekaBank -2.8 -2.8 - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
EIU -3.1 -2.8 -5.7 -7.9
Euromonitor Int. -3.5 -4.2 - -
Fedesarrollo -2.7 -3.6 -9.3 -14.6
Fitch Ratings -3.3 -4.0 -11.2 -14.1
Fitch Solutions -3.2 -3.7 -7.0 -6.2
Goldman Sachs -2.7 -2.8 -7.7 -8.4
HSBC -2.4 -2.7 -6.1 -6.6
Moody's Analytics -2.7 -3.5 - -
Oxford Economics -3.0 -3.0 -2.4 -1.7
Pezco Economics -3.9 -3.6 -10.8 -10.3
Rabobank -3.1 -3.6 -8.8 -9.0
Scotiabank Colpatria -3.5 -3.8 - -
Standard Chartered -3.2 -3.3 - -
Torino Capital -3.1 - -4.5 -
UBS -3.2 -3.3 -8.5 -10.3
Public Forecasts
CAF* -3.6 -3.5 - -
IMF* -4.3 -4.3 - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
OECD* -3.2 -3.2 - -
World Bank -3.1 -3.0 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.9 -4.2 -14.2 -16.2
Maximum -2.4 -2.6 -2.4 -1.7
Median -3.1 -3.5 -7.8 -9.0
Consensus -3.1 -3.4 -7.9 -8.7
History
30 days ago -3.2 -3.5 -7.9 -9.4
60 days ago -3.2 -3.4 -8.9 -8.9
90 days ago -3.3 -3.5 -9.0 -8.9

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the
Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: DIAN.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 78

 Colombia April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 53.1 57.3 65.8 66.8
Banco Davivienda 55.6 - 65.1 -
Bancolombia - - 54.8 56.8
BBVA Research 50.5 56.0 64.7 72.3
CABI 54.4 - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 54.9 55.7 62.6 63.5
Corficolombiana 53.0 - 60.8 -
Credicorp Capital 54.6 - 62.3 -
EIU 59.2 62.4 64.9 70.3
Fedesarrollo 55.3 55.2 64.6 69.8
Fitch Ratings 54.1 55.2 65.3 69.2
Fitch Solutions 65.9 71.1 72.9 77.3
Goldman Sachs 52.0 53.0 59.7 61.5
HSBC 52.8 52.5 58.8 59.2
Oxford Economics 54.9 56.5 57.3 58.2 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 62.2 63.5 73.0 73.8
Rabobank 56.9 58.7 65.7 67.7
Torino Capital 68.4 - 72.9 -
UBS 54.0 54.9 62.5 65.2
Public Forecasts
CAF* 61.4 68.3 70.3 77.8
Summary
Minimum 50.5 52.5 54.8 56.8
Maximum 68.4 71.1 73.0 77.3
Median 54.7 56.0 64.6 67.3
Consensus 56.2 57.8 64.1 66.5
History
30 days ago 56.0 57.2 63.9 66.6
60 days ago 56.3 57.0 65.2 65.9
90 days ago 56.4 57.1 65.4 66.0

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 79

 Colombia April 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 57.8 59.9 204 211
AGPV 59.0 61.0 - -
Barclays Capital - - 201 207
Citigroup Global Mkts 57.9 57.9 199 215
Corficolombiana 58.5 - - -
Credicorp Capital 57.3 - - -
EIU 54.6 55.7 193 197
Euromonitor Int. 63.0 66.6 - -
Fitch Ratings 59.8 57.2 - -
Fitch Solutions 59.6 59.8 228 251
Goldman Sachs 57.0 57.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 65.8 67.8 - -
Oxford Economics 59.3 60.3 227 237
Rabobank 60.0 60.8 218 235
Scotiabank Colpatria 60.1 60.1 - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Torino Capital 60.0 - 196 -
UBS 61.9 64.8 218 238
Public Forecasts
IMF 60.4 61.2 - -
Summary
Minimum 54.6 55.7 193 197
Maximum 65.8 67.8 228 251
Median 59.6 60.2 204 225
Consensus 59.5 60.7 209 224
History
30 days ago 59.2 60.3 209 224
60 days ago 58.9 60.1 210 224
90 days ago 58.9 60.3 206 214

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 80

 Colombia April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Cali (2.7m)
Area (km2): 1,138,910
Population (million, 2019 est.): 51.0
Population density (per km2, 2019): 44.8
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.6
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 4.9
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 14.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 64.1
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 13.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,098
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,661
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 73.4
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 67.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 879
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 338
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 93.1

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 836
Railways (km): 2,141
Roadways (km): 206,500 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 24,725 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura

Political Data
President: Gustavo Petro
Last elections: 29 May 2022
Next elections: 2026 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Leonardo Villar Gómez

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts

including coffee, oil and gas, in international commodity prices
coal, gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports
• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector
• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity
• High poverty and inequality rates

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 81

 Mexico April 2024

Mexico
Slowing domestic demand to hit economy
Economic overview: GDP growth slowed to a seasonally adjusted 0.1%
quarter on quarter in Q4 (Q3: +1.1% s.a. qoq) due to softer expansions in the
hospitality and construction sectors and declines in energy, manufacturing,
financial services and primary-sector output. That said, the economy still
grew roughly 50% more than the Latin American average over 2023 as a
whole, spurred by strong services activity, progress on major infrastructure
projects and robust merchandise exports to the U.S. Our Consensus is for
the economy to have accelerated in sequential terms in Q1, though January’s
sharp fall in economic activity suggests downside risks to this projection;
drought and weaker services activity weighed on the economy in the month.
Oliver Reynolds More positively, elevated pre-election government spending, robust tourist
Economist arrivals, low unemployment and resilient exports should have supported the
economy in the first quarter.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: GDP growth should stay above the Latin American average
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 this year, supported by a higher minimum wage, nearshoring investment
GDP growth (%): 0.3 2.5 2.2 and brisk government spending ahead of the June elections. However, the
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.9 -3.9 -2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.2 49.6 52.2
completion of large infrastructure projects will drag on fixed investment.
Inflation (%): 5.7 4.5 3.4 The U.S. economy is a key risk factor, as it shapes trade and remittances.
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.3 -0.6 -0.7
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2024, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: Inflation was unchanged at 4.4% in March from February, slightly
below market expectations but still above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0%
target range. Our Consensus is for inflation to average marginally above
target in the remainder of the year due to elevated growth in wages and
government spending. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices
rising 4.4% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from
one month ago, and rising 3.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: On 21 March, Banxico cut the overnight rate from 11.25%
to 11.00%, driven by falling core inflation and the Bank’s expectations of
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
continued disinflation. Our panel anticipates around an additional 175
basis-point cut this year, supported by monetary easing by the U.S. Fed
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
and given that interest rates in Mexico are still at historically high levels.
FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2024 at
9.38% and ending 2025 at 7.42%.

Currency: The peso traded at MXN 16.73 per USD on 12 April, appreciating
0.6% month on month. Strong remittances, goods exports and inbound
tourism likely supported the peso. Our panelists expect the peso to
depreciate versus the dollar from current levels by end-2024, as Banxico
is projected to cut rates by more than the Fed. FocusEconomics panelists
see the peso ending 2024 at MXN 17.92 per USD and ending 2025 at MXN
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 18.51 per USD.
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

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 Mexico April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity falls at sharpest rate since May 2020
in January
Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: The monthly indicator for economic activity (IGAE) slid 0.6%
in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in January, which was a larger
contraction than December’s 0.1% decrease. January’s figure marked the
worst reading since May 2020. The weakening was driven by a double-digit
fall in primary-sector activity, amid a severe drought, and a softer fall in the
services sector. In contrast, industrial activity rose, driven by construction.

On an annual basis, economic activity rose at a quicker rate of 2.0% in January

(December: +1.1% yoy), though this reading was below market expectations.
Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of
economic activity coming in at 3.0% in January, down from December’s 3.2%.

Note: Month-on-month (s.a.) and year-on-year changes of economic activity Panelist insight: On recent data and the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Julio Ruiz
indicator in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
said:

“The weakness in activity data at the beginning of the year (especially in

services), follows January’s lower-than-expected retail sales data […], which
are both difficult to square with the resilience of the labor market and the
frontloaded expansionary fiscal stance. Our GDP growth forecast for 2024
stands at 2.8% in 2024, supported also by favorable external demand.”

Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos commented:

“Going forward, real activity is likely to face headwinds from high rates
Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
and declining workers’ remittances in local currency (a reflection of MXN
appreciation). On the positive side, household spending is likely to continue
to benefit from still firm credit flows, robust labor market backdrop (including
solid formal job creation and generous minimum wage increases), moderating
inflation, and an expansionary budget.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in

2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI hits highest reading since June

2017 in March; services PMI dips
Latest reading: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF)
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 54.5 in March,
Note: Seasonally-adjusted IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs.
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing up from February’s 50.2. March’s result marked the strongest reading since
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration.
Source: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano June 2017. As a result, the index moved further above the 50.0 no-change
de Ejecutivos de Finanzas).
threshold, signaling a faster improvement in manufacturing sector operating
conditions compared to the previous month. The headline print reflected
improvements in output, employment and new orders.

Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.1 in March, down from

Inflation | Consumer Price Index
February’s 52.7, on softer readings for new orders and output.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains steady in March at slightly

above Central Bank’s target range
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 4.4% in March, matching February’s
figure and above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range, but below market
expectations of 4.5%. Looking at the details of the release, transportation
prices rose at a quicker pace in March compared to the previous month, while
price pressures for housing also picked up pace. In contrast, food inflation
ebbed.

The trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). 4.8% in March (February: 5.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation was unchanged,
coming in at February’s 4.6% in March.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 83

 Mexico April 2024

Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.29% over the previous month in March, picking
up from February’s 0.09% rise.

Outlook: Our panelists expect inflation in Mexico to stay slightly above target
for the remainder of this year, before falling back into the target range in 2025.

Panelist insight: Scotiabank analysts highlighted upside risks to the outlook:

“Despite the better-than-expected data in March, […] the market will

closely monitor future prints, particularly in the core components, which are
merchandise and services, where wage cost pressures and higher public
spending represent some of the upside risks. It is important to keep in mind
that weather disruptions during the year and an escalation in geopolitical
tensions could also affect non-core inflation.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

4.4% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 3.6% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts rates in March

Monetary Policy Rate | in %
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 21 March, the Governing Board of
the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reduced the overnight interbank interest rate
target from 11.25% to 11.00%.

Monetary policy drivers: The decision to cut rates was driven by a sustained
fall in core inflation in recent months, and by the Central Bank’s belief that
the disinflation process would continue going forward; Banxico sees both
headline and core inflation returning to the 2.0–4.0% target range in H2 2024.

Policy outlook: Banxico did not give explicit guidance on what its future
monetary policy moves would be, though the Bank should have room to
continue cutting rates in light of an expected decline in inflation, likely monetary
Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.
easing by the Fed, and given interest rates are still at a historically high level.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico). Our Consensus is for over 150 basis points of further rate cuts this year. That
said, recent upside surprises to inflation and economic activity data in the U.S.
could lead the Fed to keep rates higher for longer; there is therefore a risk that
Banxico follows suit in order to protect the peso.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:

“The data dependent forward guidance for further rate cuts suggests, in our
view, that rate cuts are likely in the coming meetings. Our base case, remains
for the central bank to cut by 25-bp in each of the policy meetings of the year,
reaching an end of year level of 9.50%, still well above neutral.”

Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos was more dovish:

“In our assessment, the data-dependent mode likely implies that another
moderate 25bp rate cut is the most likely outcome at the May meeting,
unless the data vector is clearly unfriendly, or the global monetary winds turn
materially more hawkish. At this juncture we continue to expect the policy rate
to reach 9.00% by end-2024.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the Banxico target rate

ending 2024 at 9.38% and ending 2025 at 7.42%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports increase in February

Latest reading: Merchandise exports soared 13.0% year-on-year in February
(January: -1.5% year-on-year). February’s result marked the strongest result
since January 2023, and was driven by higher oil and non-oil exports. Within
non-oil exports, car exports to the U.S. saw particularly strong growth.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 84

 Mexico April 2024

Merchandise Trade Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 9.7% in annual terms in February
(January: -1.0% yoy), marking the strongest reading since January 2023.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month,
recording a USD 0.6 billion deficit in February (January 2024: USD 4.3 billion
deficit; February 2023: USD 1.9 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with
the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 4.4 billion
deficit in February, compared to the USD 5.7 billion deficit in January.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising

6.6% in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.9% in
2025.
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %. Our panelists see merchandise imports rising 7.9% in 2024, which is
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. unchanged from one month ago, and rising 4.2% in 2025.

Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 14.1 billion in 2024 and a trade deficit
of USD 10.4 billion in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 85

 Mexico April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136
GDP per capita (USD) 10,318 8,768 10,173 11,250 13,641 14,408 14,679 15,407 15,954 16,588
GDP (USD bn) 1,306 1,120 1,312 1,464 1,790 1,906 1,958 2,070 2,159 2,261
GDP (MXN bn) 25,143 24,082 26,619 29,453 31,768 33,202 36,212 40,186 43,027 45,183
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -4.2 10.5 10.6 7.9 4.5 9.1 11.0 7.1 5.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.3 -8.6 5.7 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.2 -10.8 8.3 5.2 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.8 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 2.0 2.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.4 -17.3 9.7 7.7 19.4 4.6 1.8 3.1 3.0 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -7.2 7.4 8.8 -6.9 2.3 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.0 -12.2 15.4 8.3 5.7 2.4 3.4 4.0 3.8 3.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.6 -9.1 6.7 5.3 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.2 -8.7 13.3 7.2 3.7 2.6 1.8 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.5 4.4 4.1 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -4.8 -3.7 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 45.5 51.7 50.7 48.3 47.5 50.6 50.8 52.0 52.2 52.4
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.8 11.3 10.0 9.7 9.1 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.8 3.2 7.4 7.8 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.6 3.4 5.7 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.5 3.1 7.1 8.9 1.1 2.1 4.7 4.4 3.5 3.2
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.25 4.25 5.50 10.50 11.25 9.38 7.42 7.00 6.96 6.88
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 7.56 4.48 5.71 10.76 11.50 9.69 7.68 7.12 6.91 6.79
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.86 5.47 7.55 9.04 8.96 8.55 7.90 7.65 7.64 7.37
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 18.88 19.93 20.46 19.49 16.93 17.92 18.51 18.74 19.04 19.08
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 19.25 21.49 20.29 20.12 17.75 17.42 18.50 19.41 19.93 19.98
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.9 26.9 -4.5 -17.7 -5.7 -12.0 -14.1 -14.7 -16.6 -17.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.3 2.4 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.4 34.2 -10.8 -26.9 -5.5 -14.1 -10.4 -12.7 -14.6 -17.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 461 417 495 578 593 632 663 695 730 758
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 455 383 506 605 598 646 673 708 745 775
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.2 -9.4 18.6 16.7 2.6 6.6 4.9 4.9 5.0 3.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.0 -15.9 32.0 19.6 -1.0 7.9 4.2 5.2 5.2 4.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 181 196 202 199 213 215 224 228 236 250
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.8 6.1 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9
External Debt (USD bn) 622 629 602 582 594 609 640 628 641 655
External Debt (% of GDP) 47.6 56.1 45.9 39.8 33.2 31.9 32.7 30.3 29.7 29.0
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 2.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.5 5.1 2.8 3.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 25.6 19.0 9.5 4.9 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -12.4 -7.2 -1.1 2.0 3.1 1.1 2.8 3.5 5.2 5.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.9 3.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 11.25 11.25 11.00 10.65 10.13 9.48 8.68 8.16 7.75 7.42
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 11.50 11.50 11.25 10.87 10.48 9.58 9.06 8.54 8.18 7.90
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 9.88 8.96 9.27 8.98 8.71 8.48 7.97 7.69 7.53 7.40
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.38 16.93 16.62 17.57 17.80 18.00 18.13 18.51 18.83 19.05
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 2.5 -1.8 0.4 -0.5 0.4 -1.9 0.1 -0.7 0.1
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 - -
Economic Activity (IGAE, ann. var. %) 4.0 3.4 3.8 3.6 4.4 2.3 1.1 2.0 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.1 4.4 4.6 4.0 5.5 2.9 0.0 2.7 3.3 -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.3 5.0 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.7 0.6 -0.9 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 -
IMEF Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 50.8 51.1 52.1 51.1 50.4 51.2 50.3 52.0 50.2 54.5
IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.6 52.1 52.3 53.0 52.7 52.7 52.2 52.1 52.7 52.1
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.10 0.48 0.55 0.44 0.38 0.64 0.71 0.89 0.09 0.29
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.4
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.15 16.70 16.83 17.38 18.05 17.37 16.93 17.18 17.07 16.62
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.9 3.8 -5.1 5.6 2.0 -0.1 -1.5 13.0 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 8.4 6.1 7.9 10.6 7.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.7 -

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 86

 Mexico April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 2.4 1.8
AGPV 1.9 2.0
Allianz 2.0 2.2
American Chamber Mexico 3.1 2.5
Barclays Capital 3.0 1.1
BBVA Bancomer 2.5 2.4
CABI 1.5 -
Capital Economics 1.8 1.8
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.6 1.6
Citibanamex 2.1 1.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.2 1.7
Credicorp Capital 2.7 1.6
Credit Agricole 1.8 1.5
DekaBank 2.1 1.9
DIW Berlin 1.8 2.2
E2 Economia 1.8 2.1
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Econosignal 2.3 1.5
EIU 2.3 2.2
EmergingMarketWatch 1.8 1.8
Euromonitor Int. 2.4 1.9
Fitch Ratings 2.2 2.0
Fitch Solutions 2.5 1.2
FrontierView 2.4 2.1
GBM Securities 2.5 2.0
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.5
Grupo Financiero Banorte 2.4 1.7
Grupo Financiero BASE 1.6 0.8
HSBC 2.7 2.5
ifo Institute 1.9 2.1
Infonavit 2.7 2.0
Itaú Unibanco 2.8 1.8
JPMorgan 1.9 1.4
Julius Baer 1.9 2.1
Kiel Institute 2.0 2.1
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
MAPFRE Economics 2.0 2.1
Monex 2.4 1.9
Moody's Analytics 2.4 1.5
Oxford Economics 1.9 2.0
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.2 2.6
Prognosis 2.4 -
S&P Global Ratings 2.5 1.8
Scotiabank 2.8 1.6
Société Générale 1.9 2.1
Standard Chartered 2.4 1.8
Thorne & Associates 2.4 1.9
Torino Capital 3.3 -
UBS 2.2 2.9
Ve Por Más 1.9 2.5
Public Forecasts
CEPAL* 2.5 -
IMF* 2.1 1.5
OECD 2.5 2.0
United Nations* 2.3 1.9
World Bank 2.3 2.1
Notes and sources Summary
Minimum 1.5 0.8
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Maximum 3.3 2.9
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
Median 2.3 2.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Consensus 2.3 1.9
History
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 30 days ago 2.3 1.9
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics 60 days ago 2.3 1.9
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
90 days ago 2.2 2.0
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 87

 Mexico April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
American Chamber Mexico 2.3 2.1 4.3 1.4
Barclays Capital 2.1 1.1 3.0 1.1
BBVA Bancomer 2.5 2.4 4.5 3.4
CABI - - 4.0 -
Capital Economics 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.5 1.8 6.0 2.3
Citibanamex 2.6 1.9 0.5 -0.8
Credicorp Capital 2.8 2.0 6.0 1.7
EIU 1.8 1.7 -0.2 2.2
Euromonitor Int. 2.6 2.1 - -
Fitch Solutions 3.0 1.7 4.5 -1.0
FrontierView 2.2 1.9 - -
GBM Securities 2.1 2.0 6.5 3.2
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8
Grupo Financiero Banorte 3.8 2.4 7.9 2.1 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Grupo Financiero BASE 2.6 2.3 3.8 1.8
HSBC 2.4 2.8 7.5 5.5
JPMorgan - - 4.9 2.0
MAPFRE Economics 1.0 1.9 -3.1 0.2
Moody's Analytics 3.5 3.3 3.9 -2.8
Oxford Economics 1.6 1.2 -3.2 -0.2
Prognosis 3.2 - 10.0 -
S&P Global Ratings 2.2 1.8 6.7 2.2
Société Générale 2.3 2.5 - -
Torino Capital 3.3 - 14.4 -
UBS 2.6 3.1 9.0 5.4
Public Forecasts
IMF* 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.4
OECD* 2.7 2.6 5.7 3.8
World Bank 2.1 2.0 6.9 5.8
Summary
Minimum 1.0 1.1 -3.2 -2.8
Maximum 3.8 3.3 14.4 5.8 8 | Investment | variation in %
Median 2.5 2.0 4.5 2.0
Consensus 2.5 2.1 4.6 1.8
History
30 days ago 2.4 2.2 4.2 1.8
60 days ago 2.4 2.3 4.4 2.1
90 days ago 2.3 2.2 3.7 2.2

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 88

 Mexico April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital - - 3.4 3.5
BBVA Bancomer - - 3.1 3.3
Capital Economics 2.7 2.4 3.3 3.3
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.0 1.9 - -
Citibanamex 2.4 1.6 3.0 3.3
Credicorp Capital - - 2.8 3.3
DIW Berlin - - 3.2 3.3
EIU 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.0
Euromonitor Int. 1.7 1.9 3.2 3.4
Fitch Ratings - - 2.7 2.7
Fitch Solutions - - 3.0 3.4
FrontierView 2.7 2.2 3.1 3.4
GBM Securities 2.4 2.3 - -
Goldman Sachs - - 2.5 2.5
Grupo Financiero Banorte 2.6 1.3 3.1 - 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Grupo Financiero BASE 3.0 - 2.9 3.9
HSBC 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.0
Moody's Analytics 1.3 0.8 - -
Oxford Economics 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.8
Prognosis 2.9 - 3.0 -
S&P Global Ratings - - 3.3 3.4
Scotiabank - - 3.1 3.4
Société Générale - - 3.1 3.5
Torino Capital - - 3.3 -
UBS 4.1 3.4 2.9 3.2
Ve Por Más - - 3.0 3.0
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - 3.1 3.4
OECD* - - 3.0 3.1
Summary
Minimum 1.3 0.8 2.5 2.5
Maximum 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.9
Median 2.6 2.2 3.1 3.3 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Consensus 2.5 2.1 3.0 3.3
History
30 days ago 2.7 2.3 3.1 3.3
60 days ago 2.7 2.2 3.1 3.3
90 days ago 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.3

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 89

 Mexico April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver -5.2 -4.0 - -
AGPV -3.5 -2.9 - -
American Chamber Mexico -4.5 -3.4 - -
Barclays Capital -5.4 -4.5 48.8 48.0
BBVA Bancomer -4.9 -3.0 49.0 50.1
CABI -4.5 - 50.0 -
Capital Economics -4.5 -4.0 49.5 52.0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -5.0 -3.5 50.0 50.0
Citibanamex -5.4 -3.9 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -5.4 -3.9 54.1 55.4
Credicorp Capital -4.9 -3.6 50.0 49.7
DekaBank -4.9 -3.8 - -
EIU -4.7 -3.6 48.5 49.7
Euromonitor Int. -4.3 -4.0 - -
Fitch Ratings -5.1 -4.1 - - 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Fitch Solutions -4.9 -3.5 48.2 48.4
GBM Securities -4.0 - 50.5 -
Goldman Sachs -5.0 -4.1 50.3 51.0
Grupo Financiero Banorte -5.4 -3.2 48.8 49.0
Grupo Financiero BASE -5.0 -4.0 49.0 51.0
HSBC -4.9 -3.7 48.8 49.0
JPMorgan -5.1 -4.8 - -
MAPFRE Economics -4.6 -2.7 - -
Moody's Analytics -4.0 -4.3 - -
Oxford Economics -4.5 -2.7 49.7 50.2
Prognosis -5.0 - 50.2 -
Société Générale -4.9 -3.9 56.1 57.2
Torino Capital -3.5 - 60.7 -
UBS -4.6 -4.0 50.1 50.7
Public Forecasts
IMF* -4.9 -2.1 54.7 55.1
World Bank -5.4 -3.0 - -
Summary 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Minimum -5.4 -4.8 48.2 48.0
Maximum -3.5 -2.7 60.7 57.2
Median -4.9 -3.8 50.0 50.1
Consensus -4.8 -3.7 50.6 50.8
History
30 days ago -4.7 -3.8 50.1 50.2
60 days ago -4.7 -3.7 50.3 50.5
90 days ago -4.7 -3.5 50.2 50.0

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 90

 Mexico April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012-2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.8
AGPV - - 4.0 3.8
Allianz - - 5.5 3.8
American Chamber Mexico 4.0 3.6 - -
Barclays Capital 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.8
BBVA Bancomer 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6
CABI 4.0 - - -
Capital Economics 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 4.1 3.8 4.5 3.7
Citibanamex 4.5 4.0 4.7 3.9
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 4.6 4.0
Credicorp Capital 3.8 3.7 4.3 3.8
Credit Agricole - - 3.8 3.5
DekaBank - - 4.4 3.3
DIW Berlin - - 3.7 3.1 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
E2 Economia 4.3 3.5 - -
Econosignal 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.2
EIU 4.1 3.4 4.5 3.7
EmergingMarketWatch 4.1 3.8 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 4.3 3.7
Fitch Ratings - - 4.3 3.9
Fitch Solutions 4.0 3.5 4.3 4.0
FrontierView - - 4.1 3.1
GBM Securities 4.4 3.7 - -
Goldman Sachs 4.1 3.2 4.5 3.6
Grupo Financiero Banorte 4.3 3.7 4.5 3.8
Grupo Financiero BASE 4.3 3.5 4.5 3.8
HSBC 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.7
ifo Institute - - 4.2 3.3
Infonavit 4.2 3.7 4.3 3.8
Itaú Unibanco 4.2 3.7 - -
JPMorgan 3.9 3.7 4.3 3.6
Julius Baer - - 4.2 3.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Kiel Institute 4.3 3.7 5.0 3.7
MAPFRE Economics 3.9 3.7 4.2 3.5
Monex 4.1 3.9 - -
Moody's Analytics 4.0 3.2 4.4 3.3
Oxford Economics 3.6 3.4 4.3 3.4
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 4.4 3.6
Prognosis 4.0 - 4.3 -
S&P Global Ratings 4.0 3.4 4.5 3.5
Scotiabank 4.6 3.6 4.6 3.9
Société Générale - - 4.4 3.7
Standard Chartered - - 4.0 3.2
Thorne & Associates 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.7
Torino Capital 3.4 - 4.3 -
UBS 4.4 3.5 4.7 3.7
Ve Por Más 4.0 3.8 4.4 3.8
Public Forecasts
IMF* 3.2 3.0 3.8 3.1
OECD - - 4.1 3.2 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
United Nations* - - 4.0 3.1
World Bank - - 4.1 3.5
Summary
Minimum 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.1
Maximum 4.6 4.0 5.5 4.2
Median 4.1 3.7 4.3 3.7
Consensus 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.6
History
30 days ago 4.1 3.6 4.3 3.6
60 days ago 4.0 3.6 4.3 3.6
90 days ago 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.6

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 91

 Mexico April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012-2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 10.00 7.75
AGPV 8.00 7.00
American Chamber Mexico 10.00 9.25
Barclays Capital 9.50 7.50
BBVA Bancomer 9.25 7.25
CABI 8.50 -
Capital Economics 10.00 8.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 9.75 8.00
Citibanamex 9.25 7.25
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.50 6.50
Credicorp Capital 9.75 7.00
Credit Agricole 9.50 7.75
DekaBank 8.50 5.00
Econosignal 9.50 7.00
EIU 10.50 9.50
Fitch Solutions 9.50 8.00
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities 9.75 7.00
Goldman Sachs 9.00 7.25
Grupo Financiero Banorte 10.00 7.00
Grupo Financiero BASE 10.25 7.25
HSBC 9.50 7.50
Infonavit 10.00 9.25
Itaú Unibanco 9.75 7.75
JPMorgan 9.50 -
MAPFRE Economics 8.00 6.00
Monex 10.00 8.00
Oxford Economics 8.25 6.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 9.00 7.00
Prognosis 9.50 -
S&P Global Ratings 9.50 7.00
Scotiabank 10.00 8.00
Société Générale 9.25 -
UBS 8.75 7.50
Ve Por Más 9.00 7.25
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Public Forecasts
IMF* 10.00 8.00
Summary
Minimum 8.00 5.00
Maximum 10.50 9.50
Median 9.50 7.25
Consensus 9.38 7.42
History
30 days ago 9.26 7.25
60 days ago 9.16 7.30
90 days ago 9.19 7.45

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico,
Banco de México) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INEGI.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop). Source: Banxico.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 92

 Mexico April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 17.50 18.00
AGPV 18.00 18.00
American Chamber Mexico 17.39 18.11
Barclays Capital 18.00 18.00
BBVA Bancomer 18.20 19.05
CABI 19.00 -
Capital Economics 19.00 20.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 17.54 17.97
Citibanamex 17.83 18.79
Citigroup Global Mkts 17.83 18.79
Credicorp Capital 17.26 17.78
Credit Agricole 18.00 19.00
DekaBank 17.70 19.45
E2 Economia 17.00 17.00
Econosignal 17.70 19.20
EIU 17.59 18.07
29 | MXN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | MXN per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Fitch Ratings 18.00 18.50
Fitch Solutions 19.00 17.50
GBM Securities 18.20 18.52
Grupo Financiero Banorte 17.70 -
Grupo Financiero BASE 16.90 17.00
HSBC 17.75 -
Infonavit 17.20 17.70
Itaú Unibanco 17.90 18.90
JPMorgan 17.50 -
Julius Baer 17.38 18.47
MAPFRE Economics 18.71 19.87
Monex 18.20 18.70
Moody's Analytics 17.09 17.20
Oxford Economics 17.92 19.50
Prognosis 18.50 -
S&P Global Ratings 17.50 18.00
Scotiabank 18.20 19.50
Société Générale 16.60 18.04
31 | MXN per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Standard Chartered 18.40 18.45
Torino Capital 19.10 -
UBS 18.75 19.75
Ve Por Más 18.90 19.50
Summary
Minimum 16.60 17.00
Maximum 19.10 20.00
Median 17.87 18.48
Consensus 17.92 18.51
History
30 days ago 18.30 18.91
60 days ago 18.30 18.96
90 days ago 18.44 19.13

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 93

 Mexico April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver -0.7 -0.9 - -
American Chamber Mexico -1.1 - - -
Barclays Capital -1.2 -1.6 -8.2 -
BBVA Bancomer -0.7 -0.7 - -
CABI - - -71.8 -
Capital Economics -0.8 -1.5 - -
Citibanamex 0.2 0.1 -6.4 3.2
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.6 0.4 - -
Credicorp Capital -0.5 -0.6 -8.4 -9.9
Credit Agricole -1.4 -1.0 - -
DekaBank -0.7 -0.9 - -
EIU -0.6 -0.8 -4.9 -20.1
Euromonitor Int. -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -3.0
Fitch Ratings -0.5 -0.6 -5.9 -6.2
Fitch Solutions -1.0 -0.8 -16.6 -11.4 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
GBM Securities -1.2 - - -
Goldman Sachs -0.6 -0.9 -7.0 -9.2
Grupo Financiero Banorte -1.6 -1.5 - -
Grupo Financiero BASE -1.2 -1.2 -14.1 -12.0
HSBC -0.5 -0.6 -7.0 -
Infonavit -0.9 -0.9 - -
JPMorgan -0.9 -1.3 -10.8 -16.1
MAPFRE Economics -0.4 -0.7 - -
Moody's Analytics 1.1 1.3 - -
Oxford Economics -0.4 -0.2 -20.8 -14.1
Prognosis -0.8 - -20.0 -
Société Générale -0.5 -0.9 - -
Standard Chartered -0.8 -0.9 - -
Torino Capital -0.1 - -7.2 -
UBS -0.9 -0.9 -16.8 -16.0
Public Forecasts
IMF* -1.4 -1.1 - -
OECD* -0.7 -0.9 - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
World Bank -0.4 -0.6 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.6 -1.6 -71.8 -20.1
Maximum 1.1 1.3 -0.1 3.2
Median -0.7 -0.8 -8.3 -11.4
Consensus -0.6 -0.7 -14.1 -10.4
History
30 days ago -0.7 -0.7 -13.5 -13.3
60 days ago -0.6 -0.7 -16.4 -19.7
90 days ago -0.7 -0.9 -19.7 -22.8

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 94

 Mexico April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 667 - 675 -
CABI 614 - 685 -
Citibanamex 604 617 611 614
Credicorp Capital 618 634 626 644
EIU 634 634 639 654
Euromonitor Int. 655 700 655 703
Fitch Ratings 629 661 635 667
Fitch Solutions 613 701 630 712
Goldman Sachs 628 668 635 678
Grupo Financiero BASE 634 660 648 672
HSBC 618 690 625 695
JPMorgan 651 687 662 703
Oxford Economics 672 683 693 697
Prognosis 611 - 631 -
Torino Capital 628 - 635 - 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 635 647 652 663
Public Forecasts
IMF* 622 647 662 685
Summary
Minimum 604 617 611 614
Maximum 672 701 693 712
Median 629 661 637 672
Consensus 632 663 646 673
History
30 days ago 632 662 646 675
60 days ago 628 655 644 675
90 days ago 629 658 648 680

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 95

 Mexico April 2024

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 210 220 - -
Barclays Capital 205 220 - -
Citibanamex 216 220 - -
Credicorp Capital 217 220 - -
EIU 212 213 602 606
Euromonitor Int. 243 272 - -
Fitch Ratings 215 219 - -
Fitch Solutions 219 236 - -
GBM Securities 205 - - -
Goldman Sachs 214 205 - -
JPMorgan 219 220 - -
Moody's Analytics 229 242 - -
Oxford Economics 219 230 602 624
Prognosis 220 - - -
Torino Capital 207 - - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 195 200 621 691
Public Forecasts
IMF* 225 234 - -
Summary
Minimum 195 200 602 606
Maximum 243 272 621 691
Median 215 220 602 624
Consensus 215 224 609 640
History
30 days ago 214 223 612 642
60 days ago 213 223 614 624
90 days ago 213 222 612 622

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 96

 Mexico April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.8m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375
Population (million, 2019 est.): 129
Population density (per km2, 2019): 65.7
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.0
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 4.6
Language: Spanish and Indigenous
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 17.2
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 95.2
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 65.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 14.5

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,673
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 7,931
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 305
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 261
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,260
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,020
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 493

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,714
Railways (km): 20,825
Roadways (km): 398,148 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 2,900 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas

Political Data
President: A. M. López Obrador
Last elections: 1 July 2018
Next elections: 2 June 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Victoria Rodríguez Ceja

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa2 Stable
Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Drug-related violence

policy • Uncertain business environment
Exports Imports
• Large domestic market
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 97

 Peru April 2024

Peru
Growth to speed up on lower interest rates
Economic overview: The economy shrank less sharply year on year in Q4
2023 than in Q3, thanks to rebounding consumer spending, faster public
expenditure growth and a milder fall in fixed investment. Our panel expects
the economy to have rebounded in annual terms in the first quarter of 2024.
In January, year-on-year economic activity bounced back from Q4’s average
contraction, while merchandise exports continued to rise at a strong clip.
Additionally, in January−March, business sentiment strengthened, and
inflation declined from Q4. Meanwhile, in early April, lawmakers backed
a new cabinet proposed by President Boluarte after the government
announced spending plans that included USD 4.6 billion for mining projects
Massimo Bassetti and around USD 8 billion for public-private partnerships. The reshuffle
Senior Economist followed corruption charges against the President, which prompted nearly a
third of ministers to resign.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: GDP should return to growth this year. Lower inflation and
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 interest rates, rising real wages and recovering mining activity will fuel
GDP growth (%): 1.7 1.5 3.0 consumer spending and investment activity. That said, weaker export
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -2.5 -2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.8 33.6 33.7
growth—partly due to a lackluster Chinese economy—will limit the external
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.9 2.3 sector’s contribution. Downside risks include the El Niño weather event and
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.7 -0.3 -1.1
social unrest. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2024,
which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
2.7% in 2025.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
Inflation: Inflation fell to 3.0% in March from February’s 3.3%, entering
the Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range. The reading was mainly driven
by a softer increase in food prices. Inflation will average lower this year
than last on the delayed effects of past interest rate hikes. A looser-than-
expected fiscal stance and the recent pension drawdown pose upside risks.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.8% on average in
2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 2.5% on average
in 2025.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025

2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Monetary policy: At its 11 April meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP)
cut its key policy interest rate from 6.25% to 6.00%. The decision was driven
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
by recent falls in both headline and core inflation, as well as marginally lower
inflation expectations. Our panel sees the Bank delivering further rate cuts
ahead as inflation continues to ease. FocusEconomics panelists see the
monetary policy rate ending 2024 at 4.83% and ending 2025 at 4.09%.

Currency: The sol traded at PEN 3.71 per USD on 12 April, depreciating
0.5% month on month. The PEN is expected to lose some ground against
the USD by end-2024 due to the BCRP’s rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected
copper prices and production pose appreciatory risks, while social instability
poses a depreciatory risk. The interest rate differential with the U.S. is a key
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see the sol ending 2024 at PEN
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
3.75 per USD and ending 2025 at PEN 3.74 per USD.

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 Peru April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity records quickest growth since

November 2022 in January
Economic Activity | annual variation in % Latest reading: Economic activity rose 1.4% compared to the same month
a year earlier in January, which contrasted December’s 0.7% decrease.
January’s result marked the best reading since November 2022. The notable
rebound was largely driven by an improvement in the commerce sector.
Moreover, activity in the manufacturing sector gained pace, as did mining and
hydrocarbons output. In contrast, the agricultural sector fell.

On a monthly basis, economic activity grew 0.4% in January, rebounding

from December’s 0.6% fall. Meanwhile, the trend improved slightly, with the
annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 0.4%, up
from December’s minus 0.6%.

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.4%
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI). in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.7% in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops in February

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation came in at 3.0% in March, down from February’s
3.3%. The result was largely driven by softer growth in prices for food and
non-alcoholic beverages and restaurants and hotels.

Annual average inflation fell to 5.0% in March (February: 5.4%).

Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.01% over the previous month in March, above
February’s 0.56% rise.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the release, Itaú Unibanco’s Julio Ruiz

stated:

“While headline inflation surprised to the upside for the second consecutive
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %. month, both - headline and core inflation are stable and remain slightly above
Source: INEI.
the upper bound of the central bank target (2+-1%) which is unlikely to turn the
central bank hawkish (we also note that inflation expectations are inside the
target range). […]Our end of year policy rate stands at 5.25%.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

2.8% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
2.5% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank resumes easing cycle in April

Monetary Policy Rate | in % Latest bank decision: At its 11 April meeting, the Central Bank of Peru
(BCRP) cut its key policy interest rate to 6.00% from 6.25%, following March’s
pause in its easing cycle.

Monetary policy drivers: The BCRP’s decision to resume its easing cycle
was due to March’s inflationary moderation. Inflation fell to 3.0% in March
from February’s 3.3%, while the Bank’s measure of core inflation remained
unchanged at February’s 3.1% in March. Meanwhile, 12-month inflation
expectations ticked down from 2.65% to 2.56% between February and March,
moving closer to the mid-point of the Bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range for the
fourth consecutive month. Moreover, the Bank expects inflation to continue its
downtrend in the next few months.
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
Policy outlook: The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press
release; it reiterated that future adjustments to the reference rate would be
conditional on new information relating to inflation and its determinants. All
our panelists see further rate cuts this year in line with a projected decline in
inflation. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 9 May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 99

 Peru April 2024

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate

ending 2024 at 4.83% and ending 2025 at 4.09%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports increase at a softer rate in

February
Merchandise Trade Latest reading: Merchandise exports climbed 1.6% annually in February,
on the heels of January’s 9.5% increase. Meanwhile, merchandise imports
declined 0.9% over the same month last year in February (January: +6.4%
yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous

month, recording a USD 1.4 billion surplus in February (January 2024: USD
1.5 billion surplus; February 2023: USD 1.2 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend
improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a
USD 18.0 billion surplus in February, compared to the USD 17.9 billion surplus
in January.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising

Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %. 2.1% in 2024, which is up by 0.7 percentage points from one month ago, and
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
rising 3.1% in 2025.

Our panelists see merchandise imports rising 8.2% in 2024, which is up by 0.6
percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.2% in 2025.

Our panelists see a trade surplus of USD 14.7 billion in 2024 and a trade
surplus of USD 14.6 billion in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 100

 Peru April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 35.9 36.3
GDP per capita (USD) 7,008 6,157 6,680 7,169 7,755 7,971 8,318 8,665 9,052 9,427
GDP (USD bn) 232 206 226 245 268 278 293 308 325 342
GDP (PEN bn) 776 721 878 939 1,002 1,039 1,091 1,150 1,205 1,263
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -7.1 21.8 7.0 6.6 3.7 5.0 5.4 4.8 4.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.2 -10.9 13.4 2.7 -0.6 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 -9.9 12.4 3.6 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 7.5 10.9 -3.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.3 -16.2 34.6 1.0 -5.6 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.1 -19.7 13.2 6.1 3.7 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.0 -15.8 18.0 4.4 -0.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -1.7 -12.6 18.7 1.0 -6.8 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.5 -13.3 17.2 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 12.8 11.3 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -8.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.6 34.6 35.9 33.8 32.9 33.8 34.0 33.6 33.5 34.0
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.1 37.7 -4.0 0.4 - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 2.0 6.4 8.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.1 1.8 4.0 7.9 6.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.2 0.2 9.3 10.8 1.8 1.5 2.3 - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.25 0.25 2.50 7.50 6.75 4.83 4.09 3.94 3.94 4.04
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.31 3.62 3.99 3.81 3.70 3.75 3.74 3.72 3.74 3.74
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.34 3.50 3.88 3.84 3.74 3.74 3.73 3.73 3.71 3.69
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.3 2.2 -5.1 -9.9 1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -2.9 -3.4 -4.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 1.1 -2.2 -4.0 0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 6.9 8.1 15.0 10.3 17.4 14.7 14.6 15.2 14.8 13.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 48.0 42.8 63.0 66.2 67.2 68.6 70.8 75.0 78.4 82.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 41.1 34.7 48.0 55.9 49.8 53.9 56.2 59.8 63.6 68.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -2.2 -10.7 47.0 5.2 1.5 2.1 3.1 6.0 4.5 4.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -1.8 -15.5 38.2 16.5 -10.8 8.2 4.2 6.4 6.3 7.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.2 -0.4 5.8 11.7 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 68.4 74.9 78.5 72.2 71.3 74.3 77.2 85.2 89.7 100.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 20.0 25.9 19.6 15.5 17.2 16.5 16.5 17.1 16.9 17.7
External Debt (USD bn) 80.9 89.7 102.0 102.3 105.7 111.1 116.4 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 34.8 43.5 45.1 41.8 39.5 40.0 39.7 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.9 -0.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.7 2.7 3.8 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 7.3 2.2 0.9 2.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -5.9 -0.3 5.4 1.4 3.2 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.5 3.9 4.3 2.8 4.6 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.3 3.7 5.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.5 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 7.50 6.75 6.25 5.77 5.36 4.98 4.73 4.48 4.33 4.25
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.79 3.70 3.72 3.73 3.74 3.73 3.71 3.72 3.73 3.74
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.6 2.3 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 1.1 -1.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.8
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 1.9 -1.0 0.9 0.2 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.4 - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) -0.6 -1.2 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 1.4 - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -14.6 -13.0 -3.7 -9.2 -3.2 -2.8 -10.9 -4.2 - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.4 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 7.2 7.3 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 42.8 44.5 44.1 40.4 38.7 37.6 41.2 43.8 47.2 50.8
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.15 0.39 0.38 0.02 -0.32 -0.16 0.41 0.02 0.56 1.01
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.62 3.60 3.70 3.79 3.84 3.73 3.70 3.80 3.77 3.72
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.4 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -2.5 6.1 -4.6 2.5 8.1 13.5 1.5 9.5 1.6 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -17.6 -19.1 -13.8 -5.9 1.5 -9.8 -8.2 6.4 -0.9 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

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 Peru April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
AGPV 3.0 3.1
Allianz 2.0 3.1
Barclays Capital 1.5 2.0
BBVA Banco Continental 2.7 2.9
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.0 2.5
BTG Pactual 2.2 3.0
CABI 2.0 -
Capital Economics 1.8 2.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.9
Corficolombiana 2.0 -
DekaBank 2.1 2.4
E2 Economia 2.0 2.8
Econosignal 3.0 3.0
EIU 2.4 2.5
EmergingMarketWatch 2.5 3.0
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.7
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Ratings 2.6 2.4
Fitch Solutions 1.9 2.3
FrontierView 2.2 2.4
Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.1
HSBC 2.5 2.7
IEDEP - CCL 2.6 2.7
IPE 2.4 2.8
Itaú Unibanco 2.5 3.0
JPMorgan 2.1 3.0
Julius Baer 2.4 3.6
Kiel Institute 2.2 2.8
Macroconsult 2.7 -
Moody's Analytics 2.2 3.1
Oxford Economics 2.5 3.5
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.5 2.5
Pezco Economics 2.2 2.7
Rabobank 2.5 2.9
Rimac Seguros 2.3 2.5
S&P Global Ratings 2.7 3.0
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution Scotiabank 2.7 2.5
Standard Chartered 2.6 2.9
Thorne & Associates 2.5 3.0
Torino Capital 4.7 -
UBS 2.0 2.7
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.4 2.6
CEPAL* 2.4 -
IMF* 2.7 3.1
OECD* 2.3 2.7
United Nations* 2.3 2.5
World Bank 2.7 2.4
Summary
Minimum 1.5 2.0
Maximum 4.7 3.6
Median 2.4 2.8
Consensus 2.4 2.7
History
30 days ago 2.3 2.8
60 days ago 2.2 2.8
90 days ago 2.2 2.7

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 102

 Peru April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 1.6 2.2 -1.8 1.1
BBVA Banco Continental 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.0 2.5 4.4 2.0
BTG Pactual 2.1 3.2 1.8 2.5
CABI - - 3.5 -
Capital Economics 1.4 2.5 4.3 1.7
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 1.9 3.0 3.3
EIU 2.9 2.4 1.5 2.6
Euromonitor Int. 2.4 2.6 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.8 2.3 0.5 2.8
FrontierView 2.2 2.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 2.6 3.8 2.4 3.9
HSBC 3.0 2.7 -4.0 4.9
IEDEP - CCL 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.4
IPE 1.7 2.8 2.6 1.5 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Macroconsult - - -0.1 -
Moody's Analytics 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.9
Oxford Economics 1.5 2.8 2.5 1.5
Pezco Economics 2.6 2.9 2.3 2.8
Rabobank 1.6 2.0 0.9 2.0
Rimac Seguros 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.4
S&P Global Ratings 2.4 2.8 1.3 2.1
Scotiabank 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.8
Thorne & Associates 2.3 3.3 3.8 2.5
Torino Capital 4.5 - 3.1 -
UBS 2.1 2.5 0.2 2.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.8
OECD* 1.9 2.9 1.8 2.4
World Bank 2.6 2.3 - -
Summary
Minimum 1.1 1.9 -4.0 1.1
Maximum 4.5 3.8 4.4 5.9 8 | Investment | variation in %
Median 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.6
Consensus 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.7
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.7
60 days ago 2.0 2.7 1.5 2.8
90 days ago 1.9 2.7 1.5 2.6

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 103

 Peru April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Banco Continental 2.7 2.7 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital - - 6.5 6.6
BTG Pactual 3.1 2.8 6.6 6.5
Capital Economics - - 6.4 6.5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 6.6 6.5
E2 Economia 2.2 1.7 - -
Econosignal - - 7.0 6.8
EIU - - 6.0 6.0
Euromonitor Int. - - 7.4 7.3
Fitch Solutions - - 6.5 6.5
HSBC - - 6.8 6.8
IEDEP - CCL 3.8 2.5 7.2 7.0
Oxford Economics 2.6 3.2 6.6 6.9
Pezco Economics - - 7.1 7.0
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Rabobank 3.9 2.5 6.6 6.3
Scotiabank 3.9 2.6 6.4 6.2
Thorne & Associates 2.5 2.0 - -
Torino Capital - - 7.2 -
UBS - - 7.0 6.5
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.6 3.0 7.2 7.1
IMF* - - 7.4 7.3
OECD* - - 4.8 4.3
Summary
Minimum 2.2 1.7 6.0 6.0
Maximum 3.9 3.2 7.4 7.3
Median 2.7 2.6 6.6 6.6
Consensus 3.0 2.6 6.8 6.7
History
30 days ago 3.1 2.9 7.0 6.8
60 days ago 2.9 3.0 7.0 6.7
90 days ago 2.8 3.0 6.9 6.7 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e
Informática del Perú) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.

11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: BCRP.
13 Unemployment, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 104

 Peru April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital -3.0 -3.0 34.6 37.1
BBVA Banco Continental -2.3 -2.2 33.5 34.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.2 -1.8 33.4 33.6
BTG Pactual -2.0 -1.5 33.5 33.3
CABI -2.5 - 35.0 -
Capital Economics -2.5 -2.0 34.0 34.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.6 -1.5 32.6 32.5
DekaBank -2.5 -2.2 - -
EIU -2.9 -2.3 36.4 36.9
Euromonitor Int. -2.4 -2.3 - -
Fitch Ratings -2.5 -2.4 33.4 34.1
Fitch Solutions -3.0 -5.0 30.9 30.1
Goldman Sachs -2.0 -1.6 - -
HSBC -2.3 -1.9 33.2 32.9
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
IEDEP - CCL -2.4 -2.2 35.2 34.5
IPE -3.0 -2.8 - -
Macroconsult -3.1 - 34.1 -
Moody's Analytics -2.8 -2.5 33.1 34.3
Oxford Economics -2.2 -1.6 32.6 32.2
Pezco Economics -1.9 -1.8 34.7 35.5
Rabobank -2.6 -2.4 33.4 33.6
Rimac Seguros -2.5 -1.5 - -
Scotiabank -2.5 -2.2 - -
Thorne & Associates -2.1 -2.0 33.9 33.3
Torino Capital -3.3 - 34.3 -
UBS -3.1 -2.8 35.3 35.4
Public Forecasts
CAF -2.0 -1.5 - -
IMF* -1.8 -1.2 34.0 33.5
World Bank -2.4 -2.0 33.5 33.8
Summary
Minimum -3.3 -5.0 30.9 30.1 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Maximum -1.6 -1.5 36.4 37.1
Median -2.5 -2.2 33.5 34.0
Consensus -2.5 -2.2 33.8 34.0
History
30 days ago -2.5 -2.2 34.0 34.2
60 days ago -2.5 -2.3 34.3 34.5
90 days ago -2.6 -2.3 34.4 34.9

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 105

 Peru April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices

variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Allianz - - 4.2 2.4
Barclays Capital 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6
BBVA Banco Continental 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4
BCP/Credicorp Capital 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6
BTG Pactual 2.9 2.3 2.8 2.2
CABI 3.5 - - -
Capital Economics 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.0
Corficolombiana 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.1
DekaBank - - 2.6 2.5
E2 Economia 3.0 2.3 - -
EIU 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4
EmergingMarketWatch 2.5 2.3 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 2.5 2.5
19 | Inflation | Q4 20 - Q4 24 | in %
Fitch Ratings - - 2.9 2.8
Fitch Solutions 3.1 2.3 3.4 2.7
Goldman Sachs 3.3 2.3 3.0 2.6
HSBC 2.4 2.5 - -
IEDEP - CCL 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.7
IPE 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.3
Itaú Unibanco 2.8 2.5 - -
Julius Baer 2.5 2.6 - -
Kiel Institute 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.6
Macroconsult 2.5 - 2.6 -
Moody's Analytics 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.2
Oxford Economics 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 2.8 2.8
Pezco Economics 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.4
Rabobank 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8
Rimac Seguros 2.4 2.2 - -
S&P Global Ratings 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3
Scotiabank 2.4 2.4 - - 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Standard Chartered - - 2.7 2.3
Thorne & Associates 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.3
Torino Capital 3.6 - 2.6 -
UBS 2.9 2.3 3.5 2.4
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.3
IMF* 2.2 2.0 2.9 2.1
OECD* - - 2.7 2.2
United Nations* - - 4.0 2.8
World Bank - - 2.6 2.3
Summary
Minimum 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
Maximum 3.6 3.5 4.2 3.0
Median 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.4
Consensus 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.5
History
30 days ago 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.6
60 days ago 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.5 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
90 days ago 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.5

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 106

 Peru April 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate

Individual Forecasts 2024 2025

AGPV 5.00 4.00
Barclays Capital 4.50 4.00
BBVA Banco Continental 4.25 4.25
BCP/Credicorp Capital 5.00 4.25
BTG Pactual 5.25 4.25
Capital Economics 5.75 4.50
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.00 4.50
EIU 5.25 4.25
Fitch Solutions 4.50 3.50
Goldman Sachs 5.00 4.50
HSBC 4.75 4.00
IEDEP - CCL 4.50 3.25
IPE 4.75 4.00
Itaú Unibanco 5.75 4.25
JPMorgan 5.25 -
Macroconsult 4.25 -
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst Oxford Economics 5.50 4.13
Pantheon Macroeconomics 4.00 4.00
Rabobank 5.25 4.75
Rimac Seguros 5.00 4.25
S&P Global Ratings 4.00 4.00
Scotiabank 4.25 4.00
Thorne & Associates 5.00 4.00
UBS 4.75 4.00
Public Forecasts
CAF 4.25 3.50
Summary
Minimum 4.00 3.25
Maximum 5.75 4.75
Median 5.00 4.00
Consensus 4.83 4.09
History
30 days ago 4.64 4.02
60 days ago 4.62 4.01
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution 90 days ago 4.64 4.01

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

22 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 107

 Peru April 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD

Individual Forecasts 2024 2025

AGPV 3.80 3.80
Barclays Capital 3.80 3.91
BBVA Banco Continental 3.88 3.75
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.75 3.75
BTG Pactual 3.69 3.67
Capital Economics 3.70 3.80
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.70 3.70
E2 Economia 3.70 3.70
Econosignal 3.88 3.75
EIU 3.68 3.65
Fitch Ratings 3.82 3.85
Fitch Solutions 3.60 3.50
HSBC 3.70 -
IEDEP - CCL 3.79 3.82
IPE 3.75 3.74
Itaú Unibanco 3.75 3.77
29 | PEN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | PEN per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst JPMorgan 3.70 -
Macroconsult 3.65 -
Moody's Analytics 3.71 3.70
Oxford Economics 3.74 3.77
Pezco Economics 3.61 3.72
Rabobank 3.77 3.79
Rimac Seguros 3.75 3.80
S&P Global Ratings 3.75 3.85
Scotiabank 3.75 3.75
Standard Chartered 3.68 3.55
Thorne & Associates 3.90 3.70
Torino Capital 4.00 -
UBS 3.90 3.85
Public Forecasts
CAF 3.73 3.70
Summary
Minimum 3.60 3.50
Maximum 4.00 3.91
31 | PEN per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution Median 3.75 3.75
Consensus 3.75 3.74
History
30 days ago 3.77 3.76
60 days ago 3.77 3.76
90 days ago 3.78 3.78

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from Macrobond Financial AB. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 108

 Peru April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Int. Reserves

% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital -0.8 -1.8 66.5 63.7
BBVA Banco Continental 0.8 0.2 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital -0.7 -1.3 74.0 72.5
BTG Pactual -0.8 -1.1 - -
Capital Economics 0.5 0.8 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.0 -0.8 75.0 76.2
DekaBank -0.8 -1.6 - -
EIU -0.4 -1.0 74.4 82.0
Euromonitor Int. -0.2 -0.5 80.4 88.6
Fitch Ratings -0.7 -1.2 71.7 71.1
Fitch Solutions -0.9 -1.0 75.1 79.1
Goldman Sachs -0.4 -0.5 73.8 74.2
HSBC -0.5 -1.0 - -
IEDEP - CCL -1.5 - 76.2 77.8
Macroconsult -0.8 - - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Moody's Analytics -0.4 -1.4 78.9 86.8
Oxford Economics -0.5 -0.8 74.6 83.6
Pezco Economics -1.9 -2.1 - -
Rabobank -0.3 -0.8 72.5 75.4
Rimac Seguros -0.8 -1.2 - -
Scotiabank -0.6 -0.8 73.0 74.0
Standard Chartered -1.2 -1.3 - -
Thorne & Associates -0.5 -0.2 - -
Torino Capital -0.4 - - -
UBS -1.5 -1.1 74.1 75.6
Public Forecasts
CAF -0.6 -0.8 - -
IMF* -2.1 -1.7 73.3 74.8
OECD* -0.7 -0.5 - -
World Bank -1.3 -1.2 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.9 -2.1 66.5 63.7
Maximum 0.8 0.8 80.4 88.6 34 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
Median -0.7 -1.0 74.3 75.9
Consensus -0.7 -0.9 74.3 77.2
History
30 days ago -0.8 -1.1 74.2 76.9
60 days ago -1.0 -1.1 74.3 76.9
90 days ago -1.0 -1.0 74.8 77.0

35 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance as % of GDP.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 International reserves, months of imports.
35 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109

 Peru April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Banco Continental 69.8 70.1 50.9 53.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital 68.1 68.8 53.0 54.8
BTG Pactual 66.7 70.3 51.2 53.6
CABI 67.9 - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 62.3 64.8 52.6 55.2
EIU 70.5 74.7 52.4 58.7
Euromonitor Int. 66.4 70.0 55.4 58.7
Fitch Ratings 66.7 68.2 51.8 54.2
Fitch Solutions 71.3 77.0 54.8 60.7
Goldman Sachs 66.1 69.4 51.5 53.0
HSBC 68.9 70.2 52.8 54.9
IEDEP - CCL 69.4 71.1 55.7 56.7
Macroconsult 65.9 - 55.0 -
Oxford Economics 67.8 70.7 53.4 57.8 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 68.6 71.4 57.9 60.2
Rabobank 68.7 72.9 55.7 59.2
Scotiabank 68.5 70.8 52.5 54.6
Thorne & Associates 68.8 72.6 53.3 56.3
Torino Capital 84.4 - 63.5 -
UBS 68.2 70.2 53.6 55.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 66.4 70.4 51.8 53.9
Summary
Minimum 62.3 64.8 50.9 53.0
Maximum 84.4 77.0 63.5 60.7
Median 68.2 70.3 53.2 55.5
Consensus 68.6 70.8 53.9 56.2
History
30 days ago 68.2 70.1 53.6 55.7
60 days ago 67.8 69.8 53.7 55.6
90 days ago 68.2 70.7 53.6 56.0
38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 110

 Peru April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m)
Trujillo (0.8m)
Area (km2): 1,285,216
Population (million, 2019 est.): 33.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 26.3
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 5.6
Language: Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 9.6 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 121
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 52.5
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 7.2

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,100
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,118
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 51.3
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 45.8
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 143
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 255
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 52.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 191
Railways (km): 1,854
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 140,672
Waterways (km): 8,808 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani

Political Data
President: Dina Boluarte
Last presidential elections: 6 June 2021
Next elections: by 2026 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative

Strengths Weaknesses

• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy

resources • Inadequate infrastructure Imports
Exports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
• Strong growth potential prices

. .

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 111

 Venezuela April 2024

Venezuela
Possible return of sanctions clouds outlook
Economic overview: The economy recovered in H2 2023 from a H1
contraction on higher oil production and lower inflation, according to the
Finance Observatory, an opposition-led think-tank. Economic activity is
likely gaining steam so far in 2024. Oil output rose around 20% in annual
terms in January–February due to the rollback of U.S. sanctions on the oil
sector. In addition, both monthly and annual inflation fell to fresh multi-year
lows in March on the back of exchange rate stability in both the official and
parallel markets, which should be supporting private consumption. That
said, U.S. sanctions relief on the oil sector could end after 18 April in light of
the Venezuelan government’s decision to bar opposition candidate Corina
Oliver Reynolds Yoris from registering for the July presidential elections; sanctions relief was
Economist contingent on free and fair elections.

GDP outlook: GDP growth should more than double in 2024 from 2023,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages as lower price pressures support private spending and oil exports are
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 boosted early in the year by U.S. sanctions. The future of U.S. sanctions
GDP growth (%): -5.9 3.4 2.8 and the outcome of the elections are key factors to watch, while conflict with
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.2 -5.3 -
Public Debt (% of GDP): 246 - -
neighboring Guyana over the disputed Essequibo region is a downside risk.
Inflation (%): 1,376.8 178.3 55.1 FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.3% in 2024, which is up
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.0 1.3 -
by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 3.8% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation fell to 67.8% in March from 75.9% in February, coming in

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts below triple figures for only the second time in nearly a decade. Inflation is
set to average markedly lower in 2024 than in 2023, but it will likely remain
the second highest in Latin America due to currency depreciation later this
year and continued monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 108.1% on average in 2024, which is
down by 6.7 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 89.5% on
average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The Central Bank’s monetary policy has been ineffective
at controlling inflation for years due to triple-digit money supply growth amid
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
significant monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Money supply growth is
forecast to remain well above 100% both this year and next, which will result
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
in extremely elevated price pressures by global standards.

Currency: The bolívar traded at VED 36.24 per USD on 12 April, depreciating
0.2% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at VED 39.22 per
USD on 12 April, depreciating 2.6% month on month. Stronger oil sales
and Central Bank intervention have aided the VED recently. The official and
parallel rates are expected to depreciate by year-end on the likely expiration
of sanctions relief. FocusEconomics panelists see the bolívar ending 2024 at
VED 72.53 per USD and ending 2025 at VED 138.76 per USD.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

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 Venezuela April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.5 - - - -
GDP per capita (USD) 5,398 3,810 4,053 3,603 3,788 4,078 - - - -
GDP (USD bn) 150 106 112 97 101 108 113 - - -
GDP (VES bn) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -27.7 -30.0 0.5 11.8 2.0 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -35.9 -15.4 0.4 10.0 1.9 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -25.7 -26.4 4.9 9.4 6.0 6.5 4.7 2.7 1.8 3.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -28.7 -30.1 -3.0 20.6 3.3 4.0 3.4 2.4 2.3 3.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -11.6 -48.1 -25.3 17.5 6.4 11.6 6.0 4.5 3.8 3.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -22.2 -20.6 -14.4 20.3 4.8 9.8 5.1 2.9 2.7 2.9
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -40.1 -36.5 12.9 13.6 3.3 5.5 3.1 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 27.0 42.7 38.4 34.3 34.3 33.7 31.7 30.9 29.6 24.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -10.0 -5.0 -4.6 -6.0 -5.5 -5.6 -4.8 - - -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 205 328 251 158 - - - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4,946 1,287 635 354 268 152 107 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9,586 2,960 686.4 234.1 189.8 137.6 98.0 49.2 39.8 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 19,906 2,355 1,589 186.7 337.2 108.1 89.5 60.9 51.7 52.6
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 24.12 24.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 46,829 709,900 4.59 17.23 35.85 72.53 138.76 185.07 273.26 326.51
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 54,703 998,942 4.69 18.60 39.49 71.76 136.32 - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 13,356 234,032 3.28 6.70 28.57 52.01 105.64 161.91 229.17 299.89
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 14,354 337,031 3.47 7.28 30.05 54.84 104.04 - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 6.3 -1.7 1.2 1.8 1.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.2 -1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.8 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.1 4.5 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.0 9.2 11.2 16.2 15.7 18.8 19.0 18.9 19.3 19.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.3 7.5 8.9 13.2 12.5 14.3 15.5 14.1 14.5 14.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -34.5 -58.4 21.9 46.9 -3.1 20.0 0.8 -0.3 2.3 0.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -27.5 -18.7 18.2 42.6 -5.0 14.0 8.5 -9.1 2.5 0.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.6 6.4 10.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.6 10.1 14.7 9.0 9.4 8.4 8.0 9.0 8.9 -
External Debt (USD bn) 186 189 193 110 131 137 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 123.6 177.8 172.5 113.4 130.3 127.3 - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 3.0 5.6 4.1 4.6 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 364.8 253.2 82.0 124.1 116.6 119.8 139.7 123.5 120.4 118.6
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 36.00 36.00 36.00 - - - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 34.26 35.85 36.20 51.11 61.47 82.46 - - - -
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 35.47 39.49 38.79 53.47 64.72 86.74 - - - -
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 356 421 340 332 320 251 268 214 204 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 6.16 6.20 7.42 8.67 5.86 3.46 2.43 1.71 1.20 1.17
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 404.4 398.2 394.8 317.6 316.5 282.8 189.8 107.4 75.9 67.8
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 27.80 29.36 32.14 34.26 35.08 35.45 35.85 36.10 36.03 36.20
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 29.40 31.63 34.17 35.47 36.59 37.06 39.49 38.39 38.33 38.79
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.74 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.81
International Reserves (USD bn) 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

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 Venezuela April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 4.4 3.8 - -
Allianz 0.1 2.9 - -
BancTrust & Co. 6.9 4.8 -6.8 -6.6
DekaBank 3.2 2.8 - -
Dinámica Venezuela 5.1 3.4 - -
Ecoanalítica 5.0 3.4 - -
Econosignal 4.5 3.7 - -
EIU 3.8 2.8 - -
EMFI 7.1 5.2 - -
Euromonitor Int. 4.5 3.7 - -
Fitch Solutions 4.8 3.3 -5.1 -4.3
FrontierView 3.3 2.6 - -
Julius Baer 0.0 2.8 - -
Moody's Analytics 4.8 5.1 - -
Oxford Economics 0.0 2.8 - - 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Síntesis Financiera 7.4 - - -
Torino Capital 5.7 - - -
UBS 7.0 7.0 -5.0 -3.5
Public Forecasts
CEPAL* 4.0 - - -
IMF* 4.5 - - -
United Nations* 2.7 2.8 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.0 2.6 -6.8 -6.6
Maximum 7.4 7.0 -5.0 -3.5
Median 4.7 3.4 -5.1 -4.3
Consensus 4.3 3.8 -5.6 -4.8
History
30 days ago 4.2 3.7 -5.6 -4.8
60 days ago 4.3 3.7 -5.7 -4.8
90 days ago 4.8 4.0 -5.7 -4.8

3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD) and the IMF. See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: UNCTAD.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

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 Venezuela April 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 5 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV - - - -
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 5.2 5.1 9.6 7.7
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 3.3 2.1 5.3 3.4
Ecoanalítica 6.5 3.9 0.0 1.3
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 2.8 2.4 8.0 5.0
EMFI - - - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 5.0 3.2 4.0 2.0
FrontierView 5.1 4.3 - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 2.9 5.7 2.2 1.5
Oxford Economics 0.1 2.9 0.1 2.9 6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Síntesis Financiera 6.0 - - -
Torino Capital 2.4 - 2.5 -
UBS - - - -
Summary
Minimum 0.1 2.0 0.0 1.3
Maximum 6.5 5.7 9.6 7.7
Median 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.9
Consensus 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.4
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.4
60 days ago 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.4
90 days ago 4.5 3.9 4.2 3.6

7 | Investment | variation in %

8 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

6 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
7 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
8 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 115

 Venezuela April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 9 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 61.9 85.9 - -
Allianz - - 64.9 36.4
BancTrust & Co. 77.5 52.9 80.2 62.7
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 159.6 119.3 105.8 138.2
Ecoanalítica 73.9 63.9 66.8 80.1
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 78.2 57.7 80.1 66.3
EMFI 246.6 283.4 204.9 267.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 148.1 110.4
Fitch Solutions 91.7 40.5 - -
FrontierView - - 110.0 90.0
Julius Baer - - 69.8 36.4
Moody's Analytics - - 73.5 59.8
Oxford Economics - - 67.1 36.9 10 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Síntesis Financiera 87.0 - 75.0 -
Torino Capital 269.9 - 258.6 -
UBS 230.0 80.0 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 230.0 - 200.0 -
United Nations* - - 115.0 85.0
Summary
Minimum 61.9 40.5 64.9 36.4
Maximum 269.9 283.4 258.6 267.7
Median 89.3 72.0 80.1 66.3
Consensus 137.6 98.0 108.1 89.5
History
30 days ago 138.3 98.0 114.8 93.8
60 days ago 156.9 110.3 127.7 108.4
90 days ago 173.7 109.0 148.1 110.4

11 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

12 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (aop).
11 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 116

 Venezuela April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 13 | Current Account | USD bn

Current Account Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV - - 10.1 10.5
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 6.7 5.0 10.3 10.5
DekaBank 2.8 2.5 - -
Dinámica Venezuela - - 10.0 10.0
Ecoanalítica 2.9 5.1 10.2 10.1
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 3.8 3.4 8.9 9.6
EMFI 2.0 - - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 10.4 11.0
Fitch Solutions - - 10.3 10.5
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 3.5 6.6 - -
Oxford Economics 0.6 1.9 - - 14 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Síntesis Financiera 8.0 - - -
Torino Capital 0.6 - 9.5 -
UBS 3.4 3.4 10.5 10.0
Public Forecasts
IMF* 3.3 - - -
Summary
Minimum 0.6 1.9 8.9 9.6
Maximum 8.0 6.6 10.5 11.0
Median 3.1 3.4 10.2 10.3
Consensus 3.4 4.0 10.0 10.3
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.8 10.1 10.4
60 days ago 3.3 3.8 10.1 10.4
90 days ago 3.8 4.0 10.5 10.9

15 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

16 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Current account balance in USD billion.

14 Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 International reserves, months of imports.
16 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 117

 Venezuela April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 17 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 20.1 23.4 19.0 22.8
Allianz - - - -
BancTrust & Co. 21.7 25.5 14.6 17.8
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 14.0 14.6 12.8 13.0
Ecoanalítica 13.7 17.3 13.2 14.3
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 18.6 18.9 15.7 15.9
EMFI 22.3 - 13.3 -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
Fitch Solutions 19.7 20.8 15.2 17.3
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - -
Oxford Economics 13.2 14.3 7.8 7.9 18 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Síntesis Financiera 22.0 - 11.7 -
Torino Capital 24.2 - 19.1 -
UBS 17.6 17.0 15.0 15.0
Summary
Minimum 13.2 14.3 7.8 7.9
Maximum 24.2 25.5 19.1 22.8
Median 19.7 18.1 14.6 15.5
Consensus 18.8 19.0 14.3 15.5
History
30 days ago 18.7 19.0 14.1 15.5
60 days ago 18.7 18.8 14.1 15.4
90 days ago 19.4 20.1 14.1 15.9

19 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

20 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

17 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

18 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
19 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
20 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 118

 Venezuela April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Republic of Cuba Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Havana (2.1 m)
Other cities: Santiago de Cuba (0.42 m)
Camagüey (0.30 m)
Area (km2): 110,860
Population (million, 2019 est.): 11.0
Population density (per km2, 2019): 99.6
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): -0.3
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 79.2
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 0.2
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 12.7 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 47
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 49.1
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 0.9

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,242
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,493
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 104
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 69.5
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,077
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 493
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 154

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 96,189
Waterways (km): 7,100 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo

Political Data
President: Nicolás Maduro Moros
Last presidential elections: 20 May 2018
Next presidential elections: 28 July 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: - -
S&P Global Ratings: - - Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: Restricted Default -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Abundant wealth in natural • Government's heavy

resources intervention in the economy
Exports Imports
• Strategic geographic location • Rampant currency depreciation
between South America and the • Dependence on oil
Caribbean • Runaway inflation

*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 119

untries

Bolivia April 2024

Bolivia
Growth to cool further this year
Economic overview: The economy seemingly confronted economic
hardship in the first quarter. Social protests in January–February caused
traffic interruptions, prompting supply disruptions and price increases—
inflation quickened in February−March. Moreover, in January, exports
plunged 28% year on year, and imports shrank 10%, which translated into
a widening of the trade deficit compared to January 2023. Moreover, the
currency’s USD peg came under considerable pressure due to a severe
shortage of U.S. dollars, which prompted the reappearance of a black
market for the boliviano. Meanwhile, in mid-March, Moody’s warned against
a complicated outlook for the Bolivian economy this year and emphasized a
Massimo Bassetti worsening shortage of dollars—amid lower hydrocarbons production—and
Senior Economist social unrest as the main risks the country is facing.

GDP outlook: GDP growth should ease further from 2023’s projected
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages deceleration this year, mainly due to softer consumer spending growth.
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 Additionally, risks remain tilted to the downside and include possible
GDP growth (%): 0.3 2.1 2.6 currency and balance-of-payments crises, a potential flare-up in social
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.7 -7.3 -6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP): 79.8 85.9 93.0
unrest, unexpected declines in natural gas output and extreme weather
Inflation (%): 1.1 3.6 3.8 phenomena. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2024,
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.7 -2.2 -1.9
which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.1% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation rose to 3.1% in March from February’s 2.5% on faster

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts increases in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as
housing and utilities. Inflation will accelerate this year from last amid supply
constrictions due to heightened social unrest ahead of next year’s elections,
high inflation in key trading partner Argentina and a weaker black market
boliviano. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 3.6% on
average in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 4.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB)’s top priority is to

protect the bolivianos’ USD peg, so it effectively lacks an independent
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
Source: Instituto Nacional de forecasts during the last 12 months.
monetary policy. To achieve its monetary policy goals, the BCB alters
Estadística (INE). reserve requirements and its target growth rate for domestic credit, as well
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
as adjusting interest rates to mirror the U.S. Fed.

Currency: The boliviano has been pegged at around BOB 6.9 per USD
since 2011. The U.S. dollar index traded at 106 on 12 April, appreciating
3.0% month on month. Though most of our panel sees the peg in place until
at least 2025, some see a devaluation from current levels this year, as the
recent fall in FX reserves has made the peg vulnerable. FocusEconomics
panelists see the boliviano ending 2024 at BOB 7.08 per USD and ending
2025 at BOB 7.37 per USD.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: INE.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 120

 Bolivia April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0
GDP per capita (USD) 3,560 3,153 3,428 3,686 3,771 3,869 3,956 3,914 4,018 4,170
GDP (USD bn) 40.8 36.7 40.4 44.1 45.7 47.5 49.3 49.5 51.5 54.3
GDP (BOB bn) 283 253 279 304 317 331 356 387 429 456
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 -10.4 10.3 8.9 4.1 4.6 7.5 8.7 10.8 6.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.2 -8.7 6.1 3.6 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 -7.9 5.3 3.4 2.2 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 -2.8 5.4 3.7 2.5 2.4 1.1 0.7 1.4 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.5 -25.9 11.9 5.6 3.2 2.4 1.6 - - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.8 -18.8 15.4 15.1 -9.0 2.4 1.1 2.7 3.7 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.5 -25.0 15.7 8.8 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 2.4 2.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 8.3 6.9 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.2 -12.7 -9.3 -7.1 -7.5 -7.3 -7.0 -6.5 -5.9 -5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.3 78.0 81.4 80.0 83.8 86.6 87.3 92.8 94.2 92.0
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -7.5 14.1 6.6 4.0 - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.5 0.7 0.9 3.1 2.1 4.4 5.3 4.2 3.6 3.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.6
Prime Lending Rate (%, eop) 8.40 7.59 8.02 7.76 - - - - - -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.91 6.89 6.91 6.93 6.91 7.08 7.37 8.28 8.37 8.45
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.92 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.92 6.96 7.23 7.83 8.32 8.41
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.4 0.0 1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.3 0.0 2.6 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -2.7 -1.6 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.3 0.6 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 8.8 7.0 11.1 13.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 11.7 12.3 12.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.1 6.4 8.8 11.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.3 -20.6 58.9 21.5 -15.1 1.3 1.9 -1.5 5.1 3.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.1 -29.8 37.0 35.6 -7.1 0.9 0.8 -0.2 2.1 3.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -0.2 -1.1 0.6 0.0 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 4.4 2.7 2.2 1.3 - - - - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 5.0 3.1 1.3 - - - - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 14.3 15.4 16.0 15.9 18.4 19.7 20.6 24.8 27.8 31.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 35.0 42.1 39.6 36.1 40.2 41.4 41.9 50.1 54.0 57.9
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.22 0.37 0.39 -0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.63 0.08 0.20 0.46
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.1
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.93 6.92 6.91 6.92 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.90 6.91 6.93

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 121

 Bolivia April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m)
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)
Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581
Population (million, 2019 est.): 11.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 10.7
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.4
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 70.4
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 7.5
Language: Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 6.3 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 100.8
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 44.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 4.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 852
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 343
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 9.5
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.3
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 102.3
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 21.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 855
Railways (km): 3,960
Roadways (km): 90,568 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 10,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre

Political Data
President: Luis Arce
Last elections: 18 October 2020
Next elections: October 2025
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Caa1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: CCC+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: CCC -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country

• Tourism potential • Highly dependent on the
Exports Imports
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector
• Elevated levels of poverty
• Interventionist economic policy

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 122

 Ecuador April 2024

Ecuador
Panelists grow more gloomy on outlook
Economic overview: GDP fell in both annual and quarterly terms in Q4,
as elevated insecurity, lower oil output and tighter financial conditions likely
weighed on activity; private consumption, fixed investment and exports all
declined year on year. Economic prospects for early 2024 are poor. Ongoing
drug-related violence and the state of emergency imposed in January have
hit tourist arrivals and are likely weighing on domestic demand. In addition,
domestic interest rates have risen so far this year, translating into slowing
credit growth, while a three-percentage-point VAT hike from April will be
capping private spending moving into Q2. More positively, oil output rose at
the fastest pace since last June in February. In March, the president signed
Massimo Bassetti into law a free trade agreement (FTA) with China. This deal, together with
Senior Economist an FTA with Costa Rica, should take effect later this year and boost exports.

GDP outlook: GDP growth is forecast to more than halve this year from last.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages The state of emergency, elevated crime rates, the recent VAT hike and the
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 expected closure of the Block 43 oil field in August will hit the economy. An
GDP growth (%): 2.3 1.7 2.2 intensifying crime wave and consequent extension of the state of emergency
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.9 -2.6 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP): 57.8 51.9 -
is a downside risk, while a reversal of the Block 43 closure is an upside risk.
Inflation (%): 1.1 1.9 1.9 FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.0% in 2024, which is down
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.3 0.7 -0.8
by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.7% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation came in at 1.7% in March, up from February’s 1.4%

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts and the highest rate since October 2023. The pick-up was primarily due
to rebounding price pressures for transportation. Inflation should increase
in Q2 due to the VAT hike, but be muted this year on average compared to
the Latin American region on weak domestic demand and the economy’s
dollarized nature. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising
1.6% on average in 2024, which is down by 0.5 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 1.9% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The country officially dollarized its economy in January

2000. Therefore, it lacks an independent monetary policy, and monetary
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
conditions largely depend on the U.S. Fed’s stance. As a result, local interest
rates have risen around 200–300 basis points since end-2021 in line with
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
Fed hikes. Monetary conditions should ease towards end-2024 as the Fed
embarks on rate cuts.

Currency: The USD is legal tender and has circulated freely in Ecuador since
the economy was dollarized in 2000. The U.S. dollar index traded at 106 on
12 April, appreciating 3.0% month on month. The economy will likely remain
dollarized in the coming years, given the elevated costs of transitioning to a
different FX regime and that dollarization ensures low price pressures.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 123

 Ecuador April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economy records sharpest contraction since Q1 2021

in Q4
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP dropped 0.7% year on year in the final quarter of 2023,
contrasting the 0.7% expansion tallied in the third quarter. Q4’s reading
marked the worst result since Q1 2021. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-
on-quarter basis, GDP contracted 2.4% in Q4, following the previous period’s
1.3% contraction. Q4’s reading marked the largest decrease since Q2 2020.
Elevated insecurity, lower oil output and tighter financial conditions likely
weighed on activity in the fourth quarter.

Drivers: Private consumption fell 0.5% in the fourth quarter, which was above
the third quarter’s 2.3% contraction. Public consumption growth was 1.0%
(Q3: +3.9% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 5.2% in Q4. (Q3:
-3.2% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. 7.4% in Q4 (Q3: +1.7% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services
Source: Ecuador Central Bank (BCE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
rebounded, growing 16.2% in Q4 (Q3: -3.2% yoy).

GDP outlook: While GDP could return to growth in quarter-on-quarter terms

in Q1 following two large and successive quarterly declines, economic activity
will remain muted due to elevated crime rates, which led to the declaration
of a state of emergency in January. An increase in VAT from April will further
suppress domestic demand in Q2.

Panelist insight: On the outlook for this year as a whole, Oxford Economics’
Mauricio Monge said:

“Ecuador’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2024-2025 […]. Domestic

demand will remain weak, with private consumption and investment expected
to grow marginally. Factors such as the VAT rate increase, prolonged high
interest rates in the US, security issues, and electricity shortages will impact
household spending and investment. Additionally, the oil ban in the Yasuní
from Q4 2024 onward will affect the economy through 2025.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.0%

in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 1.7% in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in March

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation came in at 1.7% in March, up from February’s 1.4%.
March’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since October 2023. The pick-
up was primarily due to rising price pressures for transportation.

The trend pointed down slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at
1.8% in March (February: 1.9%).

Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.29% in March over the previous month,
accelerating from the 0.09% increase logged in February. March’s result was
the highest reading since August 2023.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

1.6% on average in 2024, which is down by 0.5 percentage points from one
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC). month ago, and rising 1.9% on average in 2025.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 124

 Ecuador April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6
GDP per capita (USD) 6,231 5,475 6,050 6,475 6,509 6,681 6,803 6,986 7,160 7,341
GDP (USD bn) 107.6 95.9 107.4 116.6 118.8 123.7 127.7 133.0 138.2 143.7
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -10.9 12.1 8.5 1.9 4.1 3.3 4.1 3.9 4.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.2 -9.2 9.8 6.2 2.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -10.6 11.3 7.4 1.4 0.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.8 -4.0 0.0 1.8 3.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.3 -21.8 13.2 8.5 0.5 -0.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.9 -3.9 9.4 7.3 2.3 0.5 0.6 2.9 3.0 2.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.0 -18.3 21.5 10.5 -0.9 1.3 1.9 3.1 3.4 3.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.4 6.1 5.2 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -7.1 -1.6 0.0 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.0 63.6 56.4 53.5 51.4 51.2 53.2 53.9 54.4 -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -0.1 -0.9 1.9 3.7 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 -0.3 0.1 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 6.17 5.89 5.91 6.35 7.70 - - - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 2.2 3.1 2.1 2.3 0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -1.9 0.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 2.3 2.9 1.8 1.9 0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -1.4 0.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.8 20.6 27.0 33.0 31.5 31.3 30.7 31.0 32.0 33.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 21.7 17.1 24.0 30.5 29.3 30.2 30.3 31.4 32.6 32.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.8 -9.7 31.1 22.5 -4.7 -0.7 -1.9 1.0 3.4 3.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.7 -21.4 40.3 27.2 -4.0 3.1 0.4 3.7 3.7 -0.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.4 7.2 7.9 8.5 4.5 5.2 5.5 7.3 8.0 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 1.9 5.1 4.0 3.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.0 -
External Debt (USD bn) 46.1 52.5 56.3 57.5 60.2 61.9 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 42.8 54.7 52.4 49.4 50.6 50.1 - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -1.3 -2.4 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 7.40 7.70 7.93 - - - - - - -
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) 12.3 3.9 3.8 -1.7 4.6 - - - - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 35.3 35.6 35.0 35.7 35.5 36.1 37.6 36.5 38.0 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.37 0.54 0.50 0.04 -0.18 -0.40 -0.02 0.13 0.09 0.29
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -17.0 -5.7 -0.8 16.8 -0.6 -2.3 -0.4 11.7 5.8 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -18.7 -8.0 -0.6 -11.0 2.7 -5.5 -8.4 -7.8 -13.6 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.3

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. On 19 December, the Central Bank of Ecuador changed the reference year for National
Accounts data from 2007 to 2018. Data from 2019 onwards reflects the new methodology, while data prior to 2019 reflects the previous base year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 125

 Ecuador April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BancTrust & Co. 0.9 1.8 -2.3 -2.7
Barclays Capital 1.1 2.0 -2.6 -1.4
CABI 1.8 - -2.1 -
Capital Economics 0.8 2.3 - -
Econosignal 1.0 1.8 - -
EIU 0.7 1.1 -2.4 -2.2
EmergingMarketWatch 2.0 - - -
EMFI 1.0 0.8 -3.2 -2.9
Euromonitor Int. 0.9 1.1 -2.6 -2.8
Fitch Ratings 1.0 0.7 -1.2 -2.9
Fitch Solutions 0.4 2.5 - -
FrontierView 0.8 2.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 0.2 2.3 - -
Humboldt Management 0.8 - - -
JPMorgan 0.6 2.0 - - 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Moody's Analytics 1.4 2.0 -3.8 -2.4
Oxford Economics 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.1
Torino Capital 2.2 - -1.6 -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL* 2.0 - - -
IMF* 1.8 2.0 -0.8 -0.6
United Nations* 2.4 2.2 - -
World Bank 0.7 1.7 -2.0 -1.7
Summary
Minimum 0.2 0.7 -3.8 -2.9
Maximum 2.2 2.5 -1.0 -1.4
Median 0.9 1.8 -2.3 -2.4
Consensus 1.0 1.7 -2.2 -2.3
History
30 days ago 1.2 1.8 -2.2 -1.8
60 days ago 1.4 1.8 -2.4 -1.9
90 days ago 1.3 1.8 -2.2 -1.6
3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and the IMF. See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 126

 Ecuador April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2012-2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BancTrust & Co. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6
Barclays Capital 2.0 2.0 - -
CABI 2.2 - - -
Capital Economics 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.0
Econosignal 1.9 1.9 - -
EIU 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2
EmergingMarketWatch 3.0 - - -
EMFI 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 1.4 1.8
Fitch Ratings - - 1.2 0.9
Fitch Solutions 0.9 2.5 1.2 1.7
FrontierView - - 1.8 2.3
Goldman Sachs 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.3
Humboldt Management 2.5 - - -
JPMorgan - - 2.4 1.9 6 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Moody's Analytics 2.8 3.1 2.3 3.1
Oxford Economics 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.9
Torino Capital 2.3 - 1.7 -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5
United Nations* - - 2.3 1.9
World Bank - - 1.9 1.8
Summary
Minimum 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9
Maximum 3.0 3.1 2.4 3.1
Median 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.8
Consensus 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9
History
30 days ago 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4
60 days ago 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.4
90 days ago 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.3
7 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the National
Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Ecuador April 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 9 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Int. Reserves
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BancTrust & Co. 0.7 -0.7 4.0 2.0
Barclays Capital 2.0 2.3 7.2 8.7
CABI - - - -
Capital Economics - - - -
Econosignal - - - -
EIU -0.3 -0.4 5.7 6.0
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI -0.5 0.9 - -
Euromonitor Int. 0.6 0.3 6.2 6.4
Fitch Ratings 1.7 0.9 3.7 2.6
Fitch Solutions -0.1 0.8 5.0 5.5
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs -5.0 -6.1 5.5 7.0
Humboldt Management 0.9 - 4.6 -
JPMorgan 0.6 0.2 - - 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Moody's Analytics -0.4 -0.7 - -
Oxford Economics 0.6 0.0 - -
Torino Capital 4.5 - - -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 1.6 1.6 - -
World Bank 0.1 -0.1 - -
Summary
Minimum -5.0 -6.1 3.7 2.0
Maximum 4.5 2.3 7.2 8.7
Median 0.6 0.1 5.3 6.0
Consensus 0.4 -0.2 5.2 5.5
History
30 days ago 0.6 0.1 5.1 4.8
60 days ago 0.6 0.1 5.1 4.8
90 days ago 0.5 0.4 5.7 5.1

11 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

12 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Current account balance as % of GDP.

10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 International reserves, months of imports.
12 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Ecuador April 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 13 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BancTrust & Co. 29.7 28.9 29.0 30.0
Barclays Capital - - - -
CABI 33.3 - 34.0 -
Capital Economics - - - -
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 29.4 28.6 28.4 28.1
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI 31.8 33.6 31.5 31.6
Euromonitor Int. 29.9 31.3 - -
Fitch Ratings 31.8 31.1 29.0 28.8
Fitch Solutions 29.0 30.4 28.2 28.4
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs 29.2 30.1 32.5 34.5
Humboldt Management 31.6 - 30.1 -
JPMorgan - - - - 14 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Moody's Analytics - - - -
Oxford Economics 31.8 31.4 30.3 30.8
Torino Capital 36.5 - 28.8 -
Summary
Minimum 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.1
Maximum 36.5 33.6 34.0 34.5
Median 31.6 30.8 29.6 30.0
Consensus 31.3 30.7 30.2 30.3
History
30 days ago 31.8 31.6 30.3 30.6
60 days ago 31.7 31.2 30.1 30.1
90 days ago 31.4 31.5 30.2 30.3

15 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

16 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

14 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Ecuador April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m)
Cuenca (0.3m)
Area (km2): 283,561
Population (million, 2019 est.): 17.8
Population density (per km2, 2019): 62.6
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.5
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 7.2
Language: Spanish, Quechua
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13.8 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 92
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 57.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 11.4

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,369
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 715
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 28.6
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 24.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 533
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 256
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 39.6

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Roadways (km): 43,216 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,500 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta

Political Data
President: Daniel Noboa
Last elections: 15 October 2023
Next elections: 2025 Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Guillermo Avellán Solines

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Caa3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: B- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: CCC+ -

Strengths Weaknesses

• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to

• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks
Exports Imports
• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports

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 Paraguay April 2024

Paraguay
Growth to outpace Latam average this year
Economic overview: Year-on-year GDP growth shot up in Q4, coming in at
4.9% from Q3’s 3.7%. Faster expansions in household spending and exports
and a softer drop in fixed investment were behind the acceleration. On the
flipside, government spending swung to contraction. Available data points to
a further improvement in momentum in the first quarter of 2024. Economic
activity expanded at a faster annual clip in January than in Q4. Additionally, in
January−February the pace of expansion in merchandise exports exceeded
Q4’s already staggering pace, hinting at a supportive external environment.
On top of this, in January−February monetary aggregates M1 and M2 rose at
stronger rates than in Q4, indicating that the economy was robust. Moreover,
Massimo Bassetti slightly lower inflation in the quarter will have sustained consumption.
Senior Economist
GDP outlook: Growth should moderate this year as exports growth softens
due to a high base. That said, activity will remain buoyant and outclass
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages regional peers thanks to sturdier domestic demand amid falling interest
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 rates and strong infrastructure spending. The Mercosur–EU trade deal and
GDP growth (%): 1.1 4.0 3.6 talks with Brazil on the Itaipú hydroelectric dam remain factors to watch.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.2 -2.8 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 38.4 - -
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.7% in 2024, which is
Inflation (%): 5.5 4.0 3.8 unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 3.6% in 2025.
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.1 -0.5 -1.5

Inflation: Inflation rose to 3.6% in March from 2.9% in February, remaining

below the Central Bank’s 4.0% target. Inflation should stay below target this
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts year, limited by positive real interest rates and lower fiscal spending. The El
Niño weather phenomenon and higher shipping costs due to Houthi attacks
in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Panama Canal pose upside risks.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 3.6% on average in
2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.7% on average
in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 21 March meeting, the Central Bank of Paraguay

lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.00%, extending the rate
normalization process in the wake of aggressive tightening in 2022–2023.
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
Source: Banco Central del Paraguay forecasts during the last 12 months.
The Bank should ease its policy stance further by the end of this year,
(BCP). although the pace of easing will be limited by the need to prevent capital
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
flight. FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate ending 2024 at
5.38% and ending 2025 at 5.00%.

Currency: The guarani traded at PYG 7,392 per USD on 12 April,

depreciating 1.4% month on month. The currency lost some ground against
the USD as the Central Bank extended its easing cycle. The PYG should
depreciate somewhat from current levels by year-end. A stronger-than-
expected El Niño weather event, faster-than-expected rate cuts and lower-
than-expected soybean prices pose depreciatory risks. FocusEconomics
panelists see the guarani ending 2024 at PYG 7,404 per USD and ending
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 2025 at PYG 7,501 per USD.
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: BCP.

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 Paraguay April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1
GDP per capita (USD) 5,297 4,872 5,414 5,610 5,674 6,080 6,335 6,666 6,972 7,262
GDP (USD bn) 37.9 35.3 39.8 41.8 42.9 46.5 49.1 52.4 55.5 58.6
GDP (PYG bn) 236,681 239,915 270,634 292,947 313,103 341,893 366,284 396,990 427,514 456,992
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 2.6 1.4 12.8 8.2 6.9 9.2 7.1 8.4 7.7 6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.4 -0.8 4.0 0.2 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 -3.6 6.1 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 5.1 2.6 -2.2 3.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.1 5.3 18.2 -1.8 -3.5 3.9 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.4 -9.0 2.1 -1.1 36.7 4.1 3.8 4.1 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.0 -15.2 21.8 9.4 14.1 1.6 2.9 3.5 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 7.7 7.5 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -6.1 -3.6 -2.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.8 36.9 37.5 40.8 40.1 40.6 - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.3 18.4 8.3 3.4 9.2 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.8 2.2 6.8 8.1 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.8 1.8 4.8 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.00 0.75 5.25 8.50 6.75 5.38 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 6,464 6,897 6,906 7,366 7,285 7,404 7,501 7,650 7,746 7,844
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 6,246 6,789 6,798 7,006 7,304 7,345 7,453 7,575 7,698 7,795
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 0.7 -0.3 -3.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 1.9 -0.9 -7.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.2 1.2 0.6 -1.9 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.1 11.0 13.2 12.8 14.8 15.7 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 11.9 9.7 12.6 14.7 14.7 15.5 16.6 17.0 17.9 18.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -8.1 -9.6 20.7 -3.1 15.5 5.9 5.0 2.5 5.4 2.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -5.5 -18.3 29.4 17.1 -0.5 5.9 6.8 2.3 5.6 4.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.7 9.5 9.9 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.7 11.7 9.5 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.0 - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 17.6 20.7 22.2 24.5 26.4 27.5 28.8 29.8 30.8 31.9
External Debt (% of GDP) 46.6 58.7 55.7 58.6 61.7 59.1 58.5 56.8 55.4 54.4
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.31 0.00 -0.16 0.47 0.47 0.39 0.31 0.92 0.00 1.07
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.2 3.5 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.6
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 7,290 7,297 7,298 7,314 7,471 7,431 7,285 7,268 7,302 7,394

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank of Paraguay
(BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ministry of the Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH and BCP.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 132

 Paraguay April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m)
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
Population (million, 2019 est.): 7.4
Population density (per km2, 2019): 18.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 6.0
Language: Spanish, Guaraní
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-4

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 4.4 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 107
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 65.0
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 4.6

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 546
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 518
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 59.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 11.6
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 60.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.2

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Roadways (km): 74,676 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 3,100 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Asunción

Political Data
President: Santiago Peña
Last elections: 30 April 2023
Next elections: 2028
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Carlos Carvallo Spalding

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Ba1 Positive
S&P Global Ratings: BB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price
agriculture swings
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Imports
reforms economies
• Stable source of income from
hydroelectric dams
• Market-friendly economic
policies

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 133

 Uruguay April 2024

Uruguay
2024 to see faster growth
Economic overview: The economy rebounded year on year in the fourth
quarter of 2023. A sharp rebound in exports was the main factor behind
the improved performance, along with a slightly softer contraction in fixed
investment. On the other hand, household spending growth moderated, and
public consumption swung into contraction. Our panel expects the economy
to have lost some speed in Q1. Economic activity and manufacturing rose
only timidly year on year in January; exports contracted, on average, in
January−February; and unemployment rose in January−February from Q4’s
average. Meanwhile, in mid-March, Moody’s raised the country’s rating to
‘Baa1’ from ‘Baa2’, with a stable outlook. The agency cited the country’s
Massimo Bassetti institutional strength—favorable for structural reforms—and compliance with
Senior Economist fiscal and monetary rules as supportive of growth.

GDP outlook: The economy is projected to expand at a notably faster clip this
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
year than in 2023. Abundant crops supported by improved weather conditions
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28
and a new pulp plant will buttress investment, exports and the manufacturing
GDP growth (%): 1.0 2.0 2.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.0 -3.3 -2.5 sector. The evolution of Argentina’s economy and negotiations over the
Public Debt (% of GDP): 70.8 - - Mercosur-EU trade deal remain the key factors to watch. FocusEconomics
Inflation (%): 8.9 5.7 4.9
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.7 -1.5 panelists see GDP expanding 3.2% in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage
points from one month ago, and expanding 2.5% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation fell to 3.8% in March from February’s 4.7%, remaining

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
within the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% target range. Price pressures should
intensify compared to current levels by the end of this year, and inflation
is seen around the upper bound of the Bank’s target range in H2 due
to prolonged monetary easing and, consequently, a weaker peso.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.4% on average in
2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 5.7% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: On 10 April, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 Bank of Uruguay (BCU) cut the policy rate to 8.50% from 9.00%. A sustained
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months. decline in inflation and the gradual lowering of inflation expectations were
behind the decision. The BCU stated that the policy stance would remain
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts focused on guiding inflation towards 4.5%. Our panel sees further easing by
year-end. FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending
2024 at 8.21% and ending 2025 at 7.80%.

Currency: The peso traded at UYU 38.66 per USD on 12 April, appreciating
0.3% month on month. The currency should lose ground from current
levels by year-end on a narrowing positive interest rate differential with
the U.S. Fed. Political uncertainty ahead of the October elections poses a
depreciatory risk. Stronger-than-expected capital inflows are an appreciatory
risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at UYU 40.37 per
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. USD and ending 2025 at UYU 42.18 per USD.
2025.

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 Uruguay April 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economy records best reading since Q3 2022 in Q4

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP rebounded, increasing 2.0% year on year in the fourth
quarter, contrasting the 0.2% contraction logged in the third quarter. Q4’s
reading marked the best result since Q3 2022. On a seasonally-adjusted
quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved moderately to 0.4% in Q4,
following the previous quarter’s 0.1% increase. Q4’s reading marked the best
result since Q1.

Drivers: The improvement in the year-on-year performance of the economy

came mainly on the back of a more supportive external sector.

Exports of goods and services increased 8.9% on an annual basis in the fourth
quarter, which contrasted the third quarter’s 8.6% contraction. Conversely,
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
imports of goods and services growth slowed to 3.1% in Q4 (Q3: +4.8% yoy),
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. marking the worst reading since Q4 2022.

On the domestic front, private consumption growth moderated to 2.8% year-on-

year in Q4 from a 3.9% expansion in Q3. Government consumption dropped
at the sharpest pace since Q3 2023, contracting 0.6% (Q3: +0.4% yoy). Fixed
investment contracted at a slower pace of 10.2% in Q4, from the 10.8%
decrease in the previous quarter.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, analysts at EIU stated:

“Real GDP will grow firmly in 2024 as a bumper crop boosts agricultural and
industrial production. Monetary policy easing will encourage investment. Rising
real salaries and employment growth will support private consumption. A
greater than expected economic contraction in Argentina poses downside risks
to forecasts.”

Manufacturing Production | variation in % Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.2% in
2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding
2.5% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing activity rebounds in January

Latest reading: Manufacturing output increased 1.1% in year-on-year terms in
January, which was above December’s 7.8% decrease. The notable turnaround
largely reflected pickups in food and paper output.

Meanwhile, the trend remained stable, with the annual average growth of
manufacturing production coming in at 0.6%, matching December’s outturn.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of manufacturing
production in %.
expanding 1.3% in 2024, which is down by 0.4 percentage points from one
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE). month ago, and expanding 2.9% in 2025.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops to lowest level since August 2005
in March
Latest reading: Inflation eased to 3.8% in March, below February’s 4.7%.
March’s reading represented the lowest inflation rate since August 2005. The
moderation was primarily due to a slower rise in prices for food and non-
alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for clothing and footwear
decreased at a quicker pace. Moreover, prices for transportation grew at a more
subdued pace.

Annual average inflation fell to 5.1% in March (February: 5.4%).

Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.02% in March over the previous month, coming
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
in below February’s 0.64% increase.
Source: INE.

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 Uruguay April 2024

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

5.4% on average in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 5.7% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts policy rate in April

Monetary Policy Rate | in % Latest bank decision: On 10 April, the Monetary Policy Committee of the
Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) cut the policy rate to 8.50% from 9.00%,
following February’s hold.

Monetary policy drivers: A sustained decline in inflation, its persistence

within the target range and the gradual decline of inflation expectations were
behind the decision. Inflation came in at 3.8% in March, its tenth consecutive
month within the BCU’s 3.0-6.0% target range. Meanwhile, two-year-ahead
market inflation expectations remained at 6.0%. As such, the Bank decided to
resume its easing cycle.

Policy outlook: In its communiqué, the BCU did not include explicit forward
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
guidance; however, it stated that the policy stance would remain focused on
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). guiding inflation towards 4.5%—the middle of the target range. Our panelists
expect the BCU to cut interest rates further this year.

The next meeting is set for 16 May.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate

ending 2024 at 8.21% and ending 2025 at 7.80%.

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 Uruguay April 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
GDP per capita (USD) 17,670 15,190 17,130 19,720 21,636 23,192 24,408 25,667 26,257 27,129
GDP (USD bn) 62.2 53.6 60.7 70.1 77.2 83.0 87.6 92.4 94.8 98.2
GDP (UYU bn) 2,194 2,255 2,646 2,889 2,999 3,243 3,626 4,115 4,389 4,740
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.3 2.8 17.4 9.2 3.8 8.1 11.8 13.5 6.7 8.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.9 -7.4 5.6 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 -8.4 3.2 5.7 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 -5.7 5.2 2.5 -0.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.0 -1.7 19.3 11.8 -7.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 -15.4 13.5 9.8 0.7 5.4 3.7 3.1 3.0 3.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.4 -12.1 17.9 12.4 6.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.6 2.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -1.6 -5.2 12.3 3.6 0.6 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.5 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.9 10.4 9.3 7.9 8.3 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -5.2 -3.6 -3.2 -3.7 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -2.5 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.9 74.4 69.9 68.2 69.0 68.8 - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 4.9 15.7 16.4 -0.1 6.1 8.9 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.8 9.4 8.0 8.3 5.1 5.7 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.9 9.8 7.7 9.1 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.7
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.25 4.50 5.75 11.25 9.25 8.21 7.80 7.08 - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 37.73 42.19 44.71 39.65 39.04 40.37 42.18 44.28 44.93 46.31
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 35.28 42.04 43.60 41.20 38.85 39.08 41.39 44.53 46.29 48.25
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.8 -0.4 -1.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -0.7 -2.4 -3.9 -3.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.1 2.2 4.6 3.5 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.9 10.1 15.8 17.0 15.1 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 8.8 7.9 11.2 13.5 13.0 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.2 16.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 0.7 -14.6 56.5 7.5 -11.5 14.3 3.0 5.0 4.5 3.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.8 -9.7 41.8 20.8 -4.1 8.2 3.1 6.9 4.6 4.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.0 0.8 2.2 3.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 14.5 16.2 17.0 15.1 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.0 18.8 19.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 19.9 24.6 18.1 13.4 15.0 14.3 14.5 13.9 13.9 13.9
External Debt (USD bn) 45.2 47.1 48.4 53.3 51.9 58.0 61.9 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 72.7 87.8 79.8 76.1 67.3 69.8 70.7 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.2 2.0 1.8 3.4 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.5 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 10.00 9.25 9.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 - - - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 38.55 39.04 37.56 38.75 39.75 40.21 40.34 40.91 42.54 43.31
Monthly Data Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 0.4 2.0 2.1 -4.4 9.1 2.4 -7.8 1.1 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.3 7.8 8.6 8.3 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.46 -0.36 0.17 0.61 0.63 0.34 -0.11 1.53 0.64 0.02
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.7 3.8
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 37.57 37.72 37.81 38.55 39.93 39.11 39.04 38.99 39.19 37.56
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -41.5 -46.5 -30.1 -4.6 1.1 22.4 -0.1 -4.5 2.1 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.6 -19.0 -10.0 0.1 -11.8 5.9 -14.7 -10.8 1.3 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 137

 Uruguay April 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012 - 2028 | var. in %
Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 3.0 - -3.2 -
BBVA Argentina 3.3 2.7 -3.0 -2.6
Capital Economics 1.8 2.0 - -
CINVE 3.3 2.6 - -
EIU 3.2 2.9 -2.9 -2.5
Equipos Consultores 3.7 2.5 -3.9 -3.5
Euromonitor Int. 3.3 2.5 - -
Fitch Ratings 3.2 2.2 -3.0 -3.1
Fitch Solutions 3.3 2.5 -3.0 -2.8
FrontierView 2.9 2.1 - -
HSBC 3.5 2.5 - -
Iecon - UdelaR 3.5 2.5 -3.5 -
JPMorgan 2.7 2.2 - -
Julius Baer 3.2 2.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 3.3 2.5 -2.6 -4.7 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Oikos 3.4 2.8 - -
Oxford Economics 3.1 2.7 -3.1 -3.0
República AFAP 3.6 - - -
Torino Capital 3.9 - -1.9 -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL* 3.2 - - -
IMF* 3.3 2.9 -2.6 -2.5
United Nations* 2.8 3.0 - -
World Bank 3.2 2.6 - -
Summary
Minimum 1.8 2.0 -3.9 -4.7
Maximum 3.9 2.9 -1.9 -2.5
Median 3.3 2.5 -3.0 -3.0
Consensus 3.2 2.5 -3.0 -3.1
History
30 days ago 3.1 2.4 -2.9 -3.1
60 days ago 3.0 2.5 -3.0 -3.1
3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
90 days ago 2.9 2.5 -3.4 -3.5

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. The Consensus Forecast for Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) contains a range of definitions. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay) and Ministry of Economy and Finance
(Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas de Uruguay.) See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU and Ministry of Economy and Finance.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 138

 Uruguay April 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 5.9 - - -
BBVA Argentina 6.4 5.0 5.4 5.4
Capital Economics 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0
CINVE 6.0 6.8 5.4 6.0
EIU 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.7
Equipos Consultores 6.0 6.0 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 5.6 5.9
Fitch Ratings - - 5.6 6.0
Fitch Solutions 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8
FrontierView - - 5.3 5.6
HSBC 5.8 5.8 5.0 5.5
Iecon - UdelaR 5.5 6.0 5.1 6.0
JPMorgan - - 5.1 5.9
Julius Baer - - 5.9 6.0
Moody's Analytics 5.5 6.5 5.2 6.1 6 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Oikos 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.8
Oxford Economics 5.0 6.5 5.0 6.5
República AFAP 6.4 7.5 - -
Torino Capital 5.8 - 6.7 -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.5
United Nations* - - 5.5 6.8
World Bank - - 5.8 5.7
Summary
Minimum 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8
Maximum 6.4 7.5 6.7 6.5
Median 5.8 5.9 5.3 5.9
Consensus 5.7 5.9 5.4 5.7
History
30 days ago 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.8
60 days ago 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.8
90 days ago 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.7
7 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 139

 Uruguay April 2024

Monetary and External Sector | Exchange Rate and Current Account

Exchange Rate and Current Account 9 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD
Exchange Rate Current Account
UYU per USD % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 41.00 - -2.8 -
BBVA Argentina 42.30 44.50 -1.9 -1.1
Capital Economics - - - -
CINVE - - - -
EIU 40.90 42.39 -2.5 -2.5
Equipos Consultores 40.70 42.50 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - -4.3 -2.9
Fitch Ratings 40.58 42.21 -2.1 -1.7
Fitch Solutions 40.00 40.30 -2.5 -1.7
FrontierView - - - -
HSBC 38.50 - -3.8 -3.5
Iecon - UdelaR 40.50 44.00 -2.5 -
JPMorgan - - -2.3 -2.6
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 39.72 38.87 -0.6 -0.9 10 | UYU per USD | evolution of fcsts
Oikos 40.06 43.38 - -
Oxford Economics 38.73 41.50 -2.8 -2.5
República AFAP - - - -
Torino Capital 41.46 - -0.1 -
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - -3.3 -2.9
World Bank - - -3.2 -2.9
Summary
Minimum 38.50 38.87 -4.3 -3.5
Maximum 42.30 44.50 -0.1 -0.9
Median 40.54 42.39 -2.5 -2.5
Consensus 40.37 42.18 -2.4 -2.2
History
30 days ago 41.33 43.40 -2.8 -2.5
60 days ago 41.42 43.27 -2.6 -2.6
90 days ago 41.92 43.67 -2.4 -2.3

11 | Current Account | % of GDP

12 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de
Uruguay) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
10 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
12 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 140

 Uruguay April 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m)
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215
Population (million, 2019 est.): 3.5
Population density (per km2, 2019): 20.1
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.3
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 1.3
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-3

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 33.4 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 150
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 74.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.3

Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 123
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 220
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 13.5
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 10.4
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 49.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 6.7

Transportation (2018)
Airports: 133
Railways (km): 1,673
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 77,732
Waterways (km): 1,600 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Montevideo

Political Data
President: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou
Last elections: 24 November 2019
Next elections: 27 October 2024 Exports Imports
Central Bank Govenor: Diego Labat

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's: Baa1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable

Strengths Weaknesses

• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy

• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring Exports Imports
• Abundant natural resources economies
• Market-friendly economic • Small domestic market
policies

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 141

 Notes April 2024

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2024 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
under International Copyright Conventions.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates and
the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
a monthly basis. Weights are based on Consensus Forecasts for of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
nominal GDP (USD billion). FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.U.
The regional aggregates include the following countries: Gran Via 657
E-08010 Barcelona
Latin America (21 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Spain
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua,
e-mail: [email protected]
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago and web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Uruguay.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (11 countries): Belize, Costa
Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and
Tobago.
Mercosur (4 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
World: 132 countries, comprising around 98% of global output.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this
information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of
their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment
objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any
transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the
Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 142

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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 132 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France,
Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, North Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate, 10-Year Bond Yield and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 35 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Diesel (U.S. benchmark), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas
(Europe), Natural Gas (U.S.), Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool

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