Survey of Likely Primary Election Voters

Montana Congressional District 02

Conducted May 8 - 9, 2024
n=410 | ±4.83%
Q1. Partisanship by Response: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or
Independent?
Freq. %
Republican 319 77.9%
Strongly Republican 182 44.3%
Mostly Republican 138 33.6%

Independent 91 22.1%
Total 410 100.0%

Q2. Vote Method: How do you plan to vote in the June 2024 Republican primary election for President and
Congress?
5/9/24 4/16/24
Vote in-person on Election Day 28.4% 30.4%
Definitely vote in-person on Election Day 19.8% 21.8%
Probably vote in-person on Election Day 8.6% 8.6%

Vote absentee by mail 65.0% 62.0%

Definitely vote absentee by mail 45.3% 42.5%
Probably vote absentee by mail 19.7% 19.5%

Vote early in-person 6.6% 7.6%

Definitely vote early in-person 3.9% 4.4%
Probably vote early in-person 2.7% 3.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q3. Top Priority: Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in the Republican primary
election for U.S. Congress?
5/9/24 4/16/24
Illegal immigration and border security 45.3% 42.5%
Inflation and economy 23.6% 22.5%
Election integrity 9.6% 10.3%
National security 5.4% 5.7%
Gun rights 3.8% 4.0%
Crime and public safety 3.7% 3.7%
Pro-life protections 2.4% 4.3%
Woke corporations 1.6% 0.9%
Parental voice in education 1.4% 1.1%
Unsure 3.2% 5.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q4. MT-02 Primary Ballot: Thinking about the June 2024 Republican primary election... If the 2024
Republican primary election for Congress was held today, and you had to vote for one of these candidates,
who would you vote for?
5/9/24 4/16/24
Troy Downing 28.1% 21.2%
Elsie Arntzen 4.8% 6.5%
Kyle Austin 0.7% 0.9%
Ken Bogner 3.6% 3.7%
Denny Rehberg 11.6% 10.9%
Ed Walker 0.0% 0.2%
Stacy Zinn 8.3% 3.3%
Joel Krautter 1.8% 1.7%

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 Ric Holden 1.5% 1.1%
Undecided 39.5% 50.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q5 - Q7. Images: For each of the following, please indicate if you have heard of the person, and if you have,
whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven't heard of a name, choose so.

Q5. Image: Donald Trump

5/9/24 4/16/24
Favorable 76.5% 76.3%
Very favorable 55.6% 57.7%
Somewhat favorable 20.9% 18.6%

Unfavorable 20.1% 21.6%

Somewhat unfavorable 5.0% 4.6%
Very unfavorable 15.1% 17.0%

No opinion 2.5% 1.6%

Never heard of 0.9% 0.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q6. Image: Troy Downing

5/9/24 4/16/24
Favorable 50.7% 41.1%
Very favorable 22.0% 16.7%
Somewhat favorable 28.6% 24.4%

Unfavorable 16.4% 18.7%

Somewhat unfavorable 8.7% 9.8%
Very unfavorable 7.7% 8.8%

No opinion 23.7% 23.3%

Never heard of 9.3% 17.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q7. Image: Denny Rehberg

5/9/24 4/16/24
Favorable 38.8% 37.5%
Very favorable 10.8% 10.6%
Somewhat favorable 28.0% 26.9%

Unfavorable 28.2% 27.1%

Somewhat unfavorable 18.6% 13.8%
Very unfavorable 9.6% 13.3%

No opinion 19.3% 23.1%

Never heard of 13.7% 12.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0%

Q8. Gender
Freq. %
Female 205 50.1%
Male 205 49.9%
Total 410 100.0%

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Q9. Age Range
Freq. %
Under 65 195 47.6%
18 - 39 34 8.2%
40 - 49 49 12.0%
50 - 64 112 27.3%

65 and Over 215 52.4%

65 - 74 125 30.4%
75+ 90 22.0%
Total 410 100.0%

Q10. Ideology
Freq. %
Conservative 353 86.1%
Extremely conservative 80 19.6%
Very conservative 163 39.8%
Somewhat conservative 109 26.7%

Moderate 46 11.2%

Liberal 3 0.7%

Unsure 9 2.1%
Total 410 100.0%

Q11. Trump vs Trad GOP

Freq. %
Trump Republican 229 55.9%
Much more a Trump Republican 141 34.3%
Somewhat more a Trump Republican 89 21.7%

Traditional conservative Republican 150 36.6%

Somewhat more a traditional 89 21.8%
conservative Republican
Much more a traditional conservative 61 14.8%
Republican

Unsure 30 7.4%
Total 410 100.0%

Q12. Education Level

Freq. %
No degree 267 65.0%
Some high school 7 1.7%
High school diploma/GED 58 14.2%
Technical Certification 38 9.2%
Some college or Associate's Degree 164 40.0%

At least College 143 34.8%

Four-year undergraduate or Bachelor's 85 20.8%
Degree
Graduate degree or further 57 14.0%

Unsure 1 0.2%
Total 410 100.0%

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Q13. Primary Election X of 4
Freq. %
0 of 4 26 6.2%
1 of 4 50 12.1%
2 of 4 65 15.8%
3 of 4 85 20.8%
4 of 4 185 45.1%
Total 410 100.0%

Q14. Geo
Freq. %
Helena/West 72 17.6%
Billings/South 203 49.4%
Great Falls/North 135 33.0%
Total 410 100.0%

Q15. Geo - DMA

Freq. %
Helena/West 72 17.6%

Billings/South 203 49.4%

Billings DMA 201 49.0%
Rapid City DMA 2 0.4%

Great Falls/North 135 33.0%

Glendive DMA 10 2.3%
Great Falls DMA 103 25.0%
Minot-Bsmrck-Dcknsn(Wlsn) DMA 23 5.6%
Total 410 100.0%

Q16. Geo - County

Freq. %
Yellowstone 131 32.1%
Cascade 52 12.7%
Lewis And Clark 50 12.1%
Park 15 3.6%
Stillwater 15 3.6%
Carbon 14 3.5%
Broadwater 13 3.3%
Richland 11 2.8%
Hill 11 2.6%
Dawson 10 2.3%
Fergus 10 2.3%
Jefferson 9 2.2%
Custer 9 2.1%
Valley 7 1.6%
Fallon 5 1.3%
Musselshell 5 1.1%
Teton 4 1.1%
Chouteau 4 1.0%
Phillips 4 1.0%
Rosebud 4 0.9%
Sweet Grass 4 0.9%
Toole 3 0.9%
Pondera 3 0.7%
Sheridan 3 0.6%
Mccone 3 0.6%

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 Judith Basin 2 0.5%
Liberty 2 0.5%
Carter 2 0.4%
Other 7 1.6%
Total 410 100.0%

Q17. Gender + Age

Freq. %
F 18 - 39 12 3.0%
F 40 - 49 27 6.6%
F 50 - 64 55 13.3%
F 65 - 74 65 15.8%
F 75+ 47 11.4%
M 18 - 39 22 5.3%
M 40 - 49 22 5.5%
M 50 - 64 57 13.9%
M 65 - 74 60 14.6%
M 75+ 43 10.6%
Total 410 100.0%

Q18. Race from File

Freq. %
White 359 87.6%
Hispanic 1 0.3%
Asian 1 0.2%
Other 3 0.8%
Unknown 45 11.1%
Total 410 100.0%

Q19. Race from File + Gender

Freq. %
White Female 181 44.1%
White Male 178 43.5%
Hispanic Female 1 0.3%
Asian Male 1 0.2%
Other Male 3 0.8%
Unknown 47 11.1%
Total 410 100.0%

Q20. Gender + Education

Freq. %
Female At least College 65 15.8%
Female No degree 140 34.1%
Male At least College 78 19.0%
Male No degree 127 30.9%
Unsure 1 0.2%
Total 410 100.0%

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METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted May 8 - 9, 2024, with 410 likely primary election voters. It has a margin of error
of ±4.83%. Known registered voters were interviewed via SMS. This survey was weighted to a likely primary election
voter universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM

Cygnal is an award-winning international polling, public opinion, and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode
polling, text-to-web collection, and emotive analysis. Cygnal consistently ranks as the most accurate firm, and clients
rely on Cygnal’s ability to create intelligence for action. Its team members have worked in all 50 states and multiple
countries on more than 3,000 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

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