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Module OF Introduction TO Statistics

Basic Statistics (Addis Ababa University)

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AMBO UNIVERSITY WOLISO CAMPUS

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS
Course Code: (ABVM2101)
(3/5 Cr.Hrs/ECTS)

Module Writer:
Getahun G. Woldemariam (MSc)

May, 2020
Woliso, Ethiopia

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS 2
MODULE OBJECTIVES 4
MAJOR COMPONENTS 5
L1.1 INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS IN STATISTICS 6
1.1. Definition and classifications of statistics 6

1.2. Definitions of some terms 7

1.3. Types of Variables or Data: 7

1.4. Applications, Uses and Limitations of statistics 8

1.5. Scales of measurement 9

1.6. SCALE TYPES 10

L1. 2. METHODS OF DATA PRESENTATION 13

2.1. Categorical frequency Distribution: 13

2.2. Ungrouped frequency Distribution: 15

2.2. Grouped frequency Distribution: 16

2.3. Diagrammatic and Graphic presentation of data. 20

2.4. Graphical Presentation of data 25

L1. 3. MEASURES OF CENTERAL TENDENCY 28

L1.4. Measures of Dispersion (Variation) 51
4.1. The Range (R) 52

4.2. Standard Deviation 60

L1.5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY 68

L1.6. ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING 80
L1.7. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION 95
7.1. Introduction 95

7.2. Correlation Analysis 95

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7.3. Steps 99

7.4. Simple Linear Regression 100

7.5. Choice of Dependent and Independent variable 105

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MODULE OBJECTIVES

The learning task was designed to equip students with the ability to
 Identify the importance and application areas of statistics in their
field of study;
 Interpret statistical information, reports, charts and figures;
 Choose appropriate sampling methods and procedures;
 Explain the basic concepts of probability distributions and their
application;
 Use estimation and testing methods for predication and
generalization purposes.
 In addition, the learning task attempts to enable students to describe
data collection tools and procedures.

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MAJOR COMPONENTS
1. Lectures
NO. Title Hours
L1.1 Introductory concepts in statistics 4
L1.2 Measures of central tendency 5
L1.3 Measures of dispersion 5
L1.4 Probability theories 8
L1.5 Concepts of sampling and their applications 5
L1.6 Estimation and hypothesis testing 8
L1.7 Correlation and simple linear regression 5
2. Problem based learning tasks
NumberCase Description
PBL1.1 Students will be provided with socio-economic data and asked to compute various measures such as frequency
distribution, measures of central tendency, measures of dispersion, and measures of shape of distribution.
3. Individual Studies
NO Title of Book, Article or website; or Reader Hrs
S1.1 Agrawal B.L. 1996. Basic statistics, new age international pub. Ltd. New Delhi 7
S1.2 Frank H. and Althoen S.C. 1994. Statistics: concepts, and application. Cambridge university press, UK 7
S1.3 Hooda R.P, 2001. Statistics for business and economics. 2nd , New York 7
S1.4 Johnson , R.A, and Bhata K.G. 1992, statistics principles and methods. New York 7
S1.5 Wayne, W. 1995. Biostatistics : a foundation for analysis in health. 6th ed. New York 7
S1.6 Students read their handouts, notes and any other materials they find helpful to fulfill the objectives of the educational unit 20
4. Practical Activities:
NO Title Practicals (guided) Hou
P1.1 With the help of appropriate software, students will be asked to compute correlation and various 3
test of hypothesis based on fictitious socio-economic data
Demonstrations
Students follow instructor’s demonstration of software package application and exercise to master
D1.1 4
the application
Routine training (independent)
Experts from statistical offices and other institutions that are known to use data processing
R1.1 3
activities will be invited to train students and share their practical experiences.
Hrs for different educational activities within the task (LT)
L task Total hrs LT
L P T S/WS PA A/PoA IS
LT 1 135 40 10 8 7 8 7 55

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L1.1 INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS IN STATISTICS

1.1.Definition and classifications of statistics
Definition:
We can define statistics in two ways.
1. Plural sense (lay man definition).
It is an aggregate or collection of numerical facts.
2. Singular sense (formal definition)
Statistics is defined as the science of collecting, organizing, presenting, analyzing and
interpreting numerical data for the purpose of assisting in making a more effective
decision.
Classifications:
Depending on how data can be used statistics is divided in to two main areas or branches.
1. Descriptive Statistics: is concerned with summary calculations, graphs, charts and tables.
2. Inferential Statistics: is a method used to generalize from a sample to a population.
For example: the average income of all families (the population) in Ethiopia can be
estimated from figures obtained from a few hundred (the sample) families.
 It is important because statistical data usually arises from sample.
 Statistical techniques based on probability theory are required.

Stages in Statistical Investigation

There are five stages or steps in any statistical investigation.

1. Collection of data: the process of measuring, gathering, assembling the raw data up on
which the statistical investigation is to be based.
 Data can be collected in a variety of ways; one of the most common methods is
through the use of survey. Survey can also be done in different methods, three of
the most common methods are:
 Telephone survey
 Mailed questionnaire
 Personal interview.

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Exercise: discuss the advantage and disadvantage of the above three methods with
respect to each other.
2. Organization of data: Summarization of data in some meaningful way, e.g table form
3. Presentation of the data: The process of re-organization, classification, compilation, and
summarization of data to present it in a meaningful form.
4. Analysis of data: The process of extracting relevant information from the summarized
data, mainly through the use of elementary mathematical operation.
5. Inference of data: The interpretation and further observation of the various statistical
measures through the analysis of the data by implementing those methods by which
conclusions are formed and inferences made.
 Statistical techniques based on probability theory are required.

1.2.Definitions of some terms

a. Statistical Population: It is the collection of all possible observations of a specified

characteristic of interest (possessing certain common property) and being under study. An
example is all of the students in AAU 3101 course in this term.
b. Sample: It is a subset of the population, selected using some sampling technique in such a
way that they represent the population.
c. Sampling: The process or method of sample selection from the population.
d. Sample size: The number of elements or observation to be included in the sample.
e. Census: Complete enumeration or observation of the elements of the population. Or it is
the collection of data from every element in a population.
f. Parameter: Characteristic or measure obtained from a population.
g. Statistic: Characteristic or measure obtained from a sample.
h. Variable: It is an item of interest that can take on many different numerical values.

1.3.Types of Variables or Data:

1. Qualitative Variables are nonnumeric variables and can't be measured. Examples include
gender, religious affiliation, and state of birth.

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2. Quantitative Variables are numerical variables and can be measured. Examples include
balance in checking account, number of children in family. Note that quantitative variables are
either discrete (which can assume only certain values, and there are usually "gaps" between the
values, such as the number of bedrooms in your house) or continuous (which can assume any
value within a specific range, such as the air pressure in a tire.)
1.4.Applications, Uses and Limitations of statistics

Applications of statistics:
 In almost all fields of human endeavor.
 Almost all human beings in their daily life are subjected to obtaining numerical facts
e.g. abut price.
 Applicable in some process e.g. invention of certain drugs, extent of environmental
pollution.
 In industries especially in quality control area.
Uses of statistics:
The main function of statistics is to enlarge our knowledge of complex phenomena. The
following are some uses of statistics:
1. It presents facts in a definite and precise form.
2. Data reduction.
3. Measuring the magnitude of variations in data.
4. Furnishes a technique of comparison
5. Estimating unknown population characteristics.
6. Testing and formulating of hypothesis.
7. Studying the relationship between two or more variable.
8. Forecasting future events.
Limitations of statistics
As a science statistics has its own limitations. The following are some of the limitations:
 Deals with only quantitative information.
 Deals with only aggregate of facts and not with individual data items.
 Statistical data are only approximately and not mathematical correct.
 Statistics can be easily misused and therefore should be used be experts.

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1.5.Scales of measurement
Proper knowledge about the nature and type of data to be dealt with is essential in order to
specify and apply the proper statistical method for their analysis and inferences. Measurement
scale refers to the property of value assigned to the data based on the properties of order,
distance and fixed zero.

In mathematical terms measurement is a functional mapping from the set of objects {Oi} to the
set of real numbers {M(Oi)}.

The goal of measurement systems is to structure the rule for assigning numbers to objects in
such a way that the relationship between the objects is preserved in the numbers assigned to the
objects. The different kinds of relationships preserved are called properties of the measurement
system.
Order
The property of order exists when an object that has more of the attribute than another object,
is given a bigger number by the rule system. This relationship must hold for all objects in the
"real world".
The property of ORDER exists
When for all i, j if Oi > Oj, then M(Oi) > M(Oj).
Distance
The property of distance is concerned with the relationship of differences between objects. If a
measurement system possesses the property of distance it means that the unit of measurement

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means the same thing throughout the scale of numbers. That is, an inch is an inch, no matters
were it falls - immediately ahead or a mile downs the road.
More precisely, an equal difference between two numbers reflects an equal difference in the
"real world" between the objects that were assigned the numbers. In order to define the
property of distance in the mathematical notation, four objects are required: Oi, Oj, Ok, and Ol .
The difference between objects is represented by the "-" sign; Oi - Oj refers to the actual "real
world" difference between object i and object j, while M(Oi) - M(Oj) refers to differences
between numbers.
The property of DISTANCE exists, for all i, j, k, l
If Oi-Oj ≥ Ok- Ol then M(Oi)-M(Oj) ≥ M(Ok)-M( Ol ).
Fixed Zero
A measurement system possesses a rational zero (fixed zero) if an object that has none of the
attribute in question is assigned the number zero by the system of rules. The object does not
need to really exist in the "real world", as it is somewhat difficult to visualize a "man with no
height". The requirement for a rational zero is this: if objects with none of the attribute did
exist would they be given the value zero. Defining O0 as the object with none of the attribute in
question, the definition of a rational zero becomes:
The property of FIXED ZERO exists if M(O0) = 0.
The property of fixed zero is necessary for ratios between numbers to be meaningful.
1.6.SCALE TYPES
Measurement is the assignment of numbers to objects or events in a systematic fashion. Four
levels of measurement scales are commonly distinguished: nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio
and each possessed different properties of measurement systems.
Nominal Scales
Nominal scales are measurement systems that possess none of the three properties stated
above. Level of measurement which classifies data into mutually exclusive, all inclusive
categories in which no order or ranking can be imposed on the data.
No arithmetic and relational operation can be applied.
Examples:
 Political party preference (Republican, Democrat, or Other,)
 Sex (Male or Female.)
 Marital status(married, single, widow, divorce)

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 Country code
 Regional differentiation of Ethiopia.

Ordinal Scales
Ordinal Scales are measurement systems that possess the property of order, but not the
property of distance. The property of fixed zero is not important if the property of distance is
not satisfied.

Level of measurement which classifies data into categories that can be ranked Differences
between the ranks do not exist. Arithmetic operations are not applicable but relational
operations are applicable. Ordering is the sole property of ordinal scale.
Examples:
 Letter grades (A, B, C, D, F)
 Rating scales (Excellent, Very good, Good, Fair, poor)
 Military status
Interval Scales
Interval scales are measurement systems that possess the properties of Order and distance, but
not the property of fixed zero. Level of measurement which classifies data that can be ranked
and differences are meaningful. However, there is no meaningful zero, so ratios are
meaningless. All arithmetic operations except division are applicable. Relational operations are
also possible.
Examples:
 IQ
 Temperature in oF
Ratio Scales
Ratio scales are measurement systems that possess all three properties: order, distance, and
fixed zero. The added power of a fixed zero allows ratios of numbers to be meaningfully
interpreted; i.e. the ratio of Bekele's height to Martha's height is 1.32, whereas this is not
possible with interval scales.

Level of measurement which classifies data that can be ranked, differences are meaningful, and
there is a true zero. True ratios exist between the different units of measure. All arithmetic and
relational operations are applicable.
Examples:
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 Weight
 Height
 Number of students
 Age
The following present a list of different attributes and rules for assigning numbers to objects.
Try to classify the different measurement systems into one of the four types of scales.
(Exercise)
 Your checking account balance as a measure of the amount of money you have in that
account.
 Your score on the first statistics test as a measure of your knowledge of statistics.
 Your score on an individual intelligence test as a measure of your intelligence.
 The distance around your forehead measured with a tape measure as a measure of your
intelligence.
 A response to the statement "Abortion is a woman's right" where "Strongly Disagree" =
1, "Disagree" = 2, "No Opinion" = 3, "Agree" = 4, and "Strongly Agree" = 5, as a
measure of attitude toward abortion.
 Times for swimmers to complete a 50-meter race
 Months of the year Meskerm, Tikimit…
 Socioeconomic status of a family when classified as low, middle and upper classes.
 Blood type of individuals, A, B, AB and O.
 Regions numbers of Ethiopia (1, 2, 3 etc.)
 The number of students in a college;
 The net wages of a group of workers;
 the height of the men in the same town;

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L1. 2. METHODS OF DATA PRESENTATION

Having collected and edited the data, the next important step is to organize it. That is to present
it in a readily comprehensible condensed form that aids in order to draw inferences from it. It is
also necessary that the like be separated from the unlike ones.
The presentation of data is broadly classified in to the following two categories:
 Tabular presentation
 Diagrammatic and Graphic presentation.
The process of arranging data in to classes or categories according to similarities technically is
called classification.
Classification is a preliminary and it prepares the ground for proper presentation of data.
Definitions:
 Raw data: recorded information in its original collected form, whether it is counts or
measurements, is referred to as raw data.
 Frequency: is the number of values in a specific class of the distribution.
 Frequency distribution: is the organization of raw data in table form using classes and
frequencies.
There are three basic types of frequency distributions
 Categorical frequency distribution
 Ungrouped frequency distribution
 Grouped frequency distribution
There are specific procedures for constructing each type.
2.1.Categorical frequency Distribution:
Used for data that can be place in specific categories such as nominal, or ordinal. e.g. marital
status.
Example: a social worker collected the following data on marital status for 25
persons.(M=married, S=single, W=widowed, D=divorced)
M S D W D
S S M M M
W D S M M
W D D S S
S W W D D
Solution:

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Since the data are categorical, discrete classes can be used. There are four types of marital status
M, S, D, and W. These types will be used as class for the distribution. We follow procedure to
construct the frequency distribution.
Step 1: Make a table as shown.
Class (1) Tally (2) Frequency (3) Percent (4)
M
S
D
W

Step 2: Tally the data and place the result in column (2).
Step 3: Count the tally and place the result in column (3).
Step 4: Find the percentages of values in each class by using;
f
%ý * 100 Where f= frequency of the class, n=total number of value.
n
Percentages are not normally a part of frequency distribution but they can be added since they are
used in certain types diagrammatic such as pie charts.
Step 5: Find the total for column (3) and (4).
Combing the entire steps one can construct the following frequency distribution.
Class (1) Tally (2) Frequency (3) Percent (4)
M 6 20
/////
S //// // 7 28
D //// // 7 28
W //// 5 24

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2.2.Ungrouped frequency Distribution:

-Is a table of all the potential raw score values that could possible occur in the data along with the
number of times each actually occurred.
-Is often constructed for small set or data on discrete variable.
Constructing ungrouped frequency distribution:
 First find the smallest and largest raw score in the collected data.
 Arrange the data in order of magnitude and count the frequency.
 To facilitate counting one may include a column of tallies.
Example:
The following data represent the mark of 20 students.

80 76 90 85 80
70 60 62 70 85
65 60 63 74 75
76 70 70 80 85

Construct a frequency distribution, which is ungrouped.

Solution:

Step 1: Find the range, Range=Max-Min=90-60=30.

Step 2: Make a table as shown
Step 3: Tally the data.
Step 4: Compute the frequency.
Mark Tally Frequency
60 // 2
62 / 1
63 / 1
65 / 1
70 //// 4

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74 / 1
75 // 2
76 / 1
80 /// 3
85 /// 3
90 / 1

Each individual value is presented separately, that is why it is named ungrouped frequency
distribution.

2.2.Grouped frequency Distribution:

-When the range of the data is large, the data must be grouped in to classes that are more than one
unit in width.
Definitions:
 Grouped Frequency Distribution: a frequency distribution when several numbers are
grouped in one class.
 Class limits: Separates one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another. The
limits could actually appear in the data and have gaps between the upper limits of one class
and lower limit of the next.
 Units of measurement (U): the distance between two possible consecutive measures. It is
usually taken as 1, 0.1, 0.01, 0.001, -----.
 Class boundaries: Separates one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another.
The boundaries have one more decimal places than the row data and therefore do not
appear in the data. There is no gap between the upper boundary of one class and lower
boundary of the next class. The lower class boundary is found by subtracting U/2 from the
corresponding lower class limit and the upper class boundary is found by adding U/2 to the
corresponding upper class limit.
 Class width: the difference between the upper and lower class boundaries of any class. It is
also the difference between the lower limits of any two consecutive classes or the
difference between any two consecutive class marks.

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 Class mark (Mid points): it is the average of the lower and upper class limits or the
average of upper and lower class boundary.
 Cumulative frequency: is the number of observations less than/more than or equal to a
specific value.
 Cumulative frequency above: it is the total frequency of all values greater than or equal
to the lower class boundary of a given class.
 Cumulative frequency below: it is the total frequency of all values less than or equal to
the upper class boundary of a given class.
 Cumulative Frequency Distribution (CFD): it is the tabular arrangement of class interval
together with their corresponding cumulative frequencies. It can be more than or less than
type, depending on the type of cumulative frequency used.
 Relative frequency (rf): it is the frequency divided by the total frequency.
 Relative cumulative frequency (rcf): it is the cumulative frequency divided by the total
frequency.
Guidelines for classes
1. There should be between 5 and 20 classes.
2. The classes must be mutually exclusive. This means that no data value can fall into two
different classes
3. The classes must be all inclusive or exhaustive. This means that all data values must be
included.
4. The classes must be continuous. There are no gaps in a frequency distribution.
5. The classes must be equal in width. The exception here is the first or last class. It is
possible to have an "below ..." or "... and above" class. This is often used with ages.
Steps for constructing Grouped frequency Distribution
1. Find the largest and smallest values
2. Compute the Range(R) = Maximum - Minimum
3. Select the number of classes desired, usually between 5 and 20 or use Sturges rule
k ý 1  3.32 log n where k is number of classes desired and n is total number of
observation.

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4. Find the class width by dividing the range by the number of classes and rounding up,
R
not off. w ý .
k
5. Pick a suitable starting point less than or equal to the minimum value. The starting
point is called the lower limit of the first class. Continue to add the class width to this
lower limit to get the rest of the lower limits.
6. To find the upper limit of the first class, subtract U from the lower limit of the second
class. Then continue to add the class width to this upper limit to find the rest of the
upper limits.
7. Find the boundaries by subtracting U/2 units from the lower limits and adding U/2 units
from the upper limits. The boundaries are also half-way between the upper limit of one
class and the lower limit of the next class. !may not be necessary to find the boundaries.
8. Tally the data.
9. Find the frequencies.
10. Find the cumulative frequencies. Depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it
may not be necessary to find the cumulative frequencies.
11. If necessary, find the relative frequencies and/or relative cumulative frequencies
Example*:
Construct a frequency distribution for the following data.
11 29 6 33 14 31 22 27 19 20
18 17 22 38 23 21 26 34 39 27
Solutions:
Step 1: Find the highest and the lowest value H=39, L=6
Step 2: Find the range; R=H-L=39-6=33
Step 3: Select the number of classes desired using Sturges formula;
k ý 1  3.32 log n =1+3.32log (20) =5.32=6(rounding up)
Step 4: Find the class width; w=R/k=33/6=5.5=6 (rounding up)

Step 5: Select the starting point, let it be the minimum observation.

 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 are the lower class limits.
Step 6: Find the upper class limit; e.g. the first upper class=12-U=12-1=11

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 11, 17, 23, 29, 35, 41 are the upper class limits.
So combining step 5 and step 6, one can construct the following classes.
Class limits
6 – 11
12 – 17
18 – 23
24 – 29
30 – 35
36 – 41
Step 7: Find the class boundaries;
E.g. for class 1 Lower class boundary=6-U/2=5.5
Upper class boundary =11+U/2=11.5
 Then continue adding w on both boundaries to obtain the rest boundaries. By doing so
one can obtain the following classes.
Class boundary
5.5 – 11.5
11.5 – 17.5
17.5 – 23.5
23.5 – 29.5
29.5 – 35.5
35.5 – 41.5
Step 8: tally the data.
Step 9: Write the numeric values for the tallies in the frequency column.
Step 10: Find cumulative frequency.
Step 11: Find relative frequency or/and relative cumulative frequency.

The complete frequency distribution follows:

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Class Class boundary Class Tally Freq. Cf (less Cf (more rf. rcf (less
limit Mark than than type) than type
type)
6 – 11 5.5 – 11.5 8.5 // 2 2 20 0.10 0.10
12 – 17 11.5 – 17.5 14.5 // 2 4 18 0.10 0.20
18 – 23 17.5 – 23.5 20.5 7 11 16 0.35 0.55
//////
24 – 29 23.5 – 29.5 26.5 //// 4 15 9 0.20 0.75
30 – 35 29.5 – 35.5 32.5 /// 3 18 5 0.15 0.90
36 – 41 35.5 – 41.5 38.5 // 2 20 2 0.10 1.00

2.3.Diagrammatic and Graphic presentation of data.

These are techniques for presenting data in visual displays using geometric and pictures.
Importance:
 They have greater attraction.
 They facilitate comparison.
 They are easily understandable.
-Diagrams are appropriate for presenting discrete data.
-The three most commonly used diagrammatic presentation for discrete as well as qualitative
data are:
 Pie charts
 Pictogram
 Bar charts
Pie chart
- A pie chart is a circle that is divided in to sections or wedges according to the
percentage of frequencies in each category of the distribution. The angle of the sector is
obtained using:
Valueofthepart
Angleof sec tor ý * 100
thewholequantity
Example: Draw a suitable diagram to represent the following population in a town.
Men Women Girls Boys

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2500 2000 4000 1500

Solutions:
Step 1: Find the percentage.
Step 2: Find the number of degrees for each class.
Step 3: Using a protractor and compass, graph each section and write its name corresponding
percentage.
Class Frequency Percent Degree
Men 2500 25 90
Women 2000 20 72
Girls 4000 40 144
Boys 1500 15 54

Pictogram
-In these diagram, we represent data by means of some picture symbols. We decide abut a
suitable picture to represent a definite number of units in which the variable is measured.
Example: draw a pictogram to represent the following population of a town.
Year 1989 1990 1991 1992

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Population 2000 3000 5000 7000

Bar Charts:

- A set of bars (thick lines or narrow rectangles) representing some magnitude over time
space.
- They are useful for comparing aggregate over time space.
- Bars can be drawn either vertically or horizontally.
- There are different types of bar charts. The most common being :

 Simple bar chart

 Component or sub divided bar chart.
 Multiple bar charts.

Simple Bar Chart

-Are used to display data on one variable.

-They are thick lines (narrow rectangles) having the same breadth. The magnitude of a quantity
is represented by the height /length of the bar.
Example: The following data represent sale by product, 1957- 1959 of a given company for
three products A, B, C.

Product Sales($) Sales($) Sales($)

In 1957 In 1958 In 1959
A 12 14 18
B 24 21 18
C 24 35 54

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Solutions:

Sales by product in 1957

30
25
Sales in $

20
15
10
5
0
A B C
product

Component Bar chart

-When there is a desire to show how a total (or aggregate) is divided in to its component parts,
we use component bar chart.
-The bars represent total value of a variable with each total broken in to its component parts
and different colours or designs are used for identifications

Example:
Draw a component bar chart to represent the sales by product from 1957 to 1959.
Solutions:

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SALES BY PRODUCT 1957-1959

100

80
Sales in $

Product C
60
Product B
40
Product A
20

0
1957 1958 1959
Year of production

Multiple Bar charts

- These are used to display data on more than one variable.

- They are used for comparing different variables at the same time.

Example:

Draw a component bar chart to represent the sales by product from 1957 to 1959.

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Solutions:

Sales by product 1957-1959

60
50
Sales in $

40 Product A
30 Product B
20 Product C

10
0
1957 1958 1959
Year of production

2.4.Graphical Presentation of data

The histogram, frequency polygon and cumulative frequency graph or ogive are most
commonly applied graphical representations for continuous data.

Procedures for constructing statistical graphs:

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 Draw and label the X and Y axes.

 Choose a suitable scale for the frequencies or cumulative frequencies and label it on the
Y axes.
 Represent the class boundaries for the histogram or ogive or the mid points for the
frequency polygon on the X axes.
 Plot the points.
 Draw the bars or lines to connect the points.

Histogram

A graph which displays the data by using vertical bars of various height to represent
frequencies. Class boundaries are placed along the horizontal axes. Class marks and class
limits are some times used as quantity on the X axes.

Example: Construct a histogram to represent the previous data (example *).

Frequency Polygon:

- A line graph. The frequency is placed along the vertical axis and classes mid points are
placed along the horizontal axis. It is customer to the next higher and lower class interval with
corresponding frequency of zero, this is to make it a complete polygon.
Example: Draw a frequency polygon for the above data (example *).
Solutions:

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0
2. 5 8. 5 14.5 20.5 26.5 32.5 38.5 44.5

Class Mid points

Ogive (cumulative frequency polygon)

- A graph showing the cumulative frequency (less than or more than type) plotted against
upper or lower class boundaries respectively. That is class boundaries are plotted along the
horizontal axis and the corresponding cumulative frequencies are plotted along the vertical
axis. The points are joined by a free hand curve.

Example: Draw an ogive curve(less than type) for the above data.(Example *)

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L1. 3. MEASURES OF CENTERAL TENDENCY

Introduction
 When we want to make comparison between groups of numbers it is good to have a single value
that is considered to be a good representative of each group. This single value is called the
average of the group. Averages are also called measures of central tendency.
 An average which is representative is called typical average and an average which is not
representative and has only a theoretical value is called a descriptive average. A typical average
should posses the following:
 It should be rigidly defined.
 It should be based on all observation under investigation.
 It should be as little as affected by extreme observations.
 It should be capable of further algebraic treatment.
 It should be as little as affected by fluctuations of sampling.
 It should be ease to calculate and simple to understand.

Objectives:
 To comprehend the data easily.
 To facilitate comparison.
 To make further statistical analysis.

The Summation Notation:

 Let X1, X2 ,X3 …XN be a number of measurements where N is the total number of
observation and Xi is ith observation.
 Very often in statistics an algebraic expression of the form X1+X2+X3+...+XN is used in a
formula to compute a statistic. It is tedious to write an expression like this very often, so
mathematicians have developed a shorthand notation to represent a sum of scores, called
the summation notation.

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N
 The symbol õX
i ý1
i is a mathematical shorthand for X1+X2+X3+...+XN

The expression is read, "the sum of X sub i from i equals 1 to N." It means "add up all the
numbers."
Example: Suppose the following were scores made on the first homework assignment for five
students in the class: 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8. In this example set of five numbers, where N=5, the
summation could be written:

The "i=1" in the bottom of the summation notation tells where to begin the sequence of
summation. If the expression were written with "i=3", the summation would start with the third
number in the set. For example:

In the example set of numbers, this would give the following result:

The "N" in the upper part of the summation notation tells where to end the sequence of
summation. If there were only three scores then the summation and example would be:

Sometimes if the summation notation is used in an expression and the expression must be
written a number of times, as in a proof, then a shorthand notation for the shorthand notation is
employed. When the summation sign "∑" is used without additional notation, then "i=1" and
"N" are assumed.
For example:

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PROPERTIES OF SUMMATION
n
1. õ k ý nk
i ý1
where k is any constant

n n
2. õ kX i ý kõ X i where k is any constant
i ý1 i ý1

n n
3. õ (a  bX
i ý1
i ) ý na  bõ X i
i ý1
where a and b are any constant

n n n
4. õ(X
i ý1
i  Yi ) ý õ X i  õ Yi
i ý1 i ý1

The sum of the product of the two variables could be written:

Example: considering the following data determine

X Y
5 6
7 7
7 8

6 7
8 8
5 5
a) õ Xi
i ý1
e) õ(X
i ý1
i  Yi )

5 5
b) õ Yi
i ý1
f) õX Y
i ý1
i i

5 5

õ10 õX
2
c) g) i
i ý1 i ý1

5 5 5
d) õ ( X i  Yi ) h) (õ X i )(õ Yi )
i ý1 i ý1 i ý1

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Solutions:
5
a) õX
i ý1
i ý 5  7  7  6  8 ý 33

5
b) õY
i ý1
i ý 6  7  8  7  8 ý 36

5
c) õ10 ý 5 *10 ý 50
i ý1

5
d) õ(X
i ý1
i  Yi ) ý (5  6)  (7  7)  (7  8)  (6  7)  (8  8) ý 69 ý 33  36

5
e) õ(X
i ý1
i  Yi ) ý (5  6)  (7  7)  (7  8)  (6  7)  (8  8) ý 3 ý 33  36

5
f) õX Y
i ý1
i i ý 5 * 6  7 * 7  7 * 8  6 * 7  8 * 8 ý 241

õX ý 5 2  7 2  7 2  6 2  8 2 ý 223
2
g) i
i ý1

5 5
h) (õ X i )(õ Yi ) ý 33 * 36 ý 1188
i ý1 i ý1

Types of measures of central tendency

There are several different measures of central tendency; each has its advantage and
disadvantage.
 The Mean (Arithmetic, Geometric and Harmonic)
 The Mode
 The Median
 Quantiles (Quartiles, Deciles and Percentiles)
The choice of these averages depends up on which best fit the property under discussion.

The Arithmetic Mean

 Is defined as the sum of the magnitude of the items divided by the number of items.

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 The mean of X1, X2 ,X3 …Xn is denoted by A.M ,m or X and is given by:
X 1  X 2  ...  X n
X ý
n
n

õX i
X ý i ý1

n
 If X1 occurs f1 times, if X2occurs f2 times, … , if Xn occurs fn times
k

õfX i i k
Then the mean will be Xý i ý1
k , where k is the number of classes and õf i ýn
õf
i ý1
i
i ý1

Example: Obtain the mean of the following number

2, 7, 8, 2, 7, 3, 7
Solution:
Xi fi Xifi
2 2 4
3 1 3
7 3 21
8 1 8
Total 7 36

õf i Xi
36
X ý i ý1
4
ý ý 5.15
7
õf i ý1
i

Arithmetic Mean for Grouped Data

If data are given in the shape of a continuous frequency distribution, then the mean is obtained
as follows:
k

õf i Xi th th
X ý i ý1
k
, Where Xi =the class mark of the i class and fi = the frequency of the i class
õf
i ý1
i

Example: calculate the mean for the following age distribution.

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Class frequency
6- 10 35
11- 15 23
16- 20 15
21- 25 12
26- 30 9
31- 35 6

Solutions:
 First find the class marks
 Find the product of frequency and class marks
 Find mean using the formula.

Class fi Xi Xifi
6- 10 35 8 280
11- 15 23 13 299
16- 20 15 18 270
21- 25 12 23 276
26- 30 9 28 252
31- 35 6 33 198
Total 100 1575

õf X i i
1575
X ý i ý1
6
ý ý 15.75
100
õf i ý1
i

Exercises:

1. Marks of 75 students are summarized in the following frequency distribution:

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Marks No. of students

40-44 7 If 20% of the students have marks between
45-49 10 55 and 59
50-54 22 i. Find the missing frequencies f4
55-59 f4 and f5.
60-64 f5 ii. Find the mean.

65-69 6
70-74 3

Special properties of Arithmetic mean

1. The sum of the deviations of a set of items from their mean is always zero. i.e.
n

õ ( X  X ) ý 0.
i ý1
i

2. The sum of the squared deviations of a set of items from their mean is the minimum. i.e.
n n

õ ( Xi  X ) 2 ü õ ( X i  A) 2 , A  X
i ý1 i ý1

3. If X 1 is the mean of n1 observations, if X 2 is the mean of n 2 observations, … , if X k is

the mean of n k observation, then the mean of all the observation in all groups often called
the combined mean is given by:
k

X n  X 2 n 2  ....  X k n k õX n i i
Xc ý 1 1 ý i ý1
n1  n 2  ...n k
k

õn
i ý1
i

Example: In a class there are 30 females and 70 males. If females averaged 60 in an

examination and boys averaged 72, find the mean for the entire class.
Solutions:

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Females Males
X 1 ý 60 X 2 ý 72
n1 ý 30 n2 ý 70

X n  X 2 n2 õ
X i ni
Xc ý 1 1 ý iý12
n1  n2
õn
i ý1
i

30(60)  70(72) 6840

 Xc ý ý ý 68.40
30  70 100

4. If a wrong figure has been used when calculating the mean the correct mean can be
obtained with out repeating the whole process using:
(CorrectValue  WrongValue)
CorrectMean ý WrongMean 
n
Where n is total number of observations.

Example: An average weight of 10 students was calculated to be 65.Latter it was discovered

that one weight was misread as 40 instead of 80 kg. Calculate the correct average weight.

Solutions:
(CorrectValue  WrongValue)
CorrectMean ý WrongMean 
n
(80  40)
CorrectMean ý 65  ý 65  4 ý 69k.g.
10

5. The effect of transforming original series on the mean.

a) If a constant k is added/ subtracted to/from every observation then the new mean
will be the old mean ± k respectively.
b) If every observations are multiplied by a constant k then the new mean will be

k*old mean

Example:

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1. The mean of n Tetracycline Capsules X1, X2, …, Xn are known to be 12 gm. New set
of capsules of another drug are obtained by the linear transformation Yi = 2Xi – 0.5
( i = 1, 2, …, n ) then what will be the mean of the new set of capsules
Solutions:
NewMean ý 2 * OldMean  0.5 ý 2 * 12  0.5 ý 23.5

2. The mean of a set of numbers is 500.

a) If 10 is added to each of the numbers in the set, then what will be the mean of the
new set?
b) If each of the numbers in the set are multiplied by -5, then what will be the mean of
the new set?
Solutions:
a).NewMean ý OldMean  10 ý 500  10 ý 510
b).NewMean ý 5 * OldMean ý 5 * 500 ý 2500

Weighted Mean

 When a proper importance is desired to be given to different data a weighted mean is

appropriate.
 Weights are assigned to each item in proportion to its relative importance.
 Let X1, X2, …Xn be the value of items of a series and W1, W2, …Wn their corresponding
weights , then the weighted mean denoted X w is defined as:
n

õX W i i
Xw ý i ý1
n

õW
i 1
i

Example:
A student obtained the following percentage in an examination:
English 60, Biology 75, Mathematics 63, Physics 59, and chemistry 55.Find the
students weighted arithmetic mean if weights 1, 2, 1, 3, 3 respectively are allotted to the
subjects.
Solutions:

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õX W i i
60 * 1  75 * 2  63 * 1  59 * 3  55 * 3 615
Xw ý i ý1
ý ý ý 61.5
1 2  1 3  3
5
10
õW
i 1
i

Merits and Demerits of Arithmetic Mean

Merits:
 It is based on all observation.
 It is suitable for further mathematical treatment.
 It is stable average, i.e. it is not affected by fluctuations of sampling to some extent.
 It is easy to calculate and simple to understand.

Demerits:
 It is affected by extreme observations.
 It can not be used in the case of open end classes.
 It can not be determined by the method of inspection.
 It can not be used when dealing with qualitative characteristics, such as intelligence,
honesty, beauty.

The Geometric Mean

 The geometric mean of a set of n observation is the nth root of their product.
 The geometric mean of X1, X2 ,X3 …Xn is denoted by G.M and given by:

G.M ý n X1 * X2 * ... * Xn
 Taking the logarithms of both sides
1
log(G.M) ý log(n X 1 * X 2 * ... * X n ) ý log(X 1 * X 2 * ... * X n ) n
1 1
 log(G.M) ý log(X 1 * X 2 * .... * X n ) ý (log X 1  log X 2  ...  log X n )
n n
1 n
 log(G.M) ý õ log X i
n iý1

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 The logarithm of the G.M of a set of observation is the arithmetic mean of

their logarithm.
1 n
 G.M ý Anti log( õ log X i )
n iý1

Example:

Find the G.M of the numbers 2, 4, 8.

Solutions:
G.M ý n X1 * X2 * ... * Xn ý 3 2 * 4 * 8 ý 3 64 ý 4
Remark: The Geometric Mean is useful and appropriate for finding averages of ratios.

The Harmonic Mean

The harmonic mean of X1, X2 , X3 …Xn is denoted by H.M and given by:
n
H.M ý n , This is called simple harmonic mean.
1
õ
i ý1 X i

In a case of frequency distribution:

k
n
H.M ý k , n ý õ fi
fi
õ
i ý1 X
i ý1

If observations X1, X2, …Xn have weights W1, W2, …Wn respectively, then their harmonic
mean is given by

õW i
H.M ý n
i ý1
, This is called Weighted Harmonic Mean.
õW
i ý1
i Xi

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Remark: The Harmonic Mean is useful and appropriate in finding average speeds and average
rates.

Example: A cyclist pedals from his house to his college at speed of 10 km/hr and back from the
college to his house at 15 km/hr. Find the average speed.

Solution: Here the distance is constant

The simple H.M is appropriate for this problem.
X1= 10km/hr X2=15km/hr
2
H.M ý ý 12km/hr
1 1

10 15

The Mode

- Mode is a value which occurs most frequently in a set of values

- The mode may not exist and even if it does exist, it may not be unique.
- In case of discrete distribution the value having the maximum frequency is the modal value.

Examples:
1. Find the mode of 5, 3, 5, 8, 9
Mode =5
2. Find the mode of 8, 9, 9, 7, 8, 2, and 5.
It is a bimodal Data: 8 and 9
3. Find the mode of 4, 12, 3, 6, and 7.
No mode for this data.

- The mode of a set of numbers X1, X2, …Xn is usually denoted by X̂ .

Mode for Grouped data

If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the mode is defined as:

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ö 1 ö
X̂ ý L mo  w÷÷ ÷÷
ø 1   2 ø

Where:
Xˆ ý the mod e of the distribution
w ý the size of the mod al class
 1 ý f mo  f 1
 2 ý f mo  f 2
f mo ý frequencyof the mod al class
f 1 ý frequencyof the class preceedingthe mod al class
f 2 ý frequencyof the class following the mod al class

Note: The modal class is a class with the highest frequency.

Example: Following is the distribution of the size of certain farms selected at random from a
district. Calculate the mode of the distribution.

Size of farms No. of farms

5-15 8
15-25 12
25-35 17
35-45 29
45-55 31
55-65 5
65-75 3

Solutions:

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45  55 is the mod al class, sin ce it is a class with the highest frequency.

Lmo ý 45
w ý 10
 1 ý f mo  f 1 ý 2
 2 ý f mo  f 2 ý 26
f mo ý 31
f 1 ý 29
f2 ý 5

 Xˆ ý 45  10ö÷
2 ö
÷
ø 2  26 ø
ý 45.71

Merits and Demerits of Mode

Merits:
 It is not affected by extreme observations.
 Easy to calculate and simple to understand.
 It can be calculated for distribution with open end class
Demerits:
 It is not rigidly defined.

 It is not based on all observations

 It is not suitable for further mathematical treatment.

 It is not stable average, i.e. it is affected by fluctuations of sampling to
some extent.
 Often its value is not unique.

Note: being the point of maximum density, mode is especially useful in finding the most
popular size in studies relating to marketing, trade, business, and industry. It is the appropriate
average to be used to find the ideal size.

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The Median
- In a distribution, median is the value of the variable which divides it in to two equal halves.
- In an ordered series of data median is an observation lying exactly in the middle of the series.
It is the middle most value in the sense that the number of values less than the median is equal to the
number of values greater than it.
-If X1, X2, …Xn be the observations, then the numbers arranged in ascending order will be X[1],
X[2], …X[n], where X[i] is ith smallest value.
 X[1]< X[2]< …<X[n]
-Median is denoted by X̂ .
Median for ungrouped data

ü X ( n1) 2  ,If n is odd.

~ ÿ1
X ý ý (X  Xù ), If n is even
ÿ 2 ùúûn 2 ùúû úû( n 2 )  1úû
ù
þ

Example: Find the median of the following numbers.

a) 6, 5, 2, 8, 9, 4.
b) 2, 1, 8, 3, 5, 8.

Solutions:
a) First order the data: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Here n=6
~ ý 1 (X  X
X )
n n
2 [2] [  1]
2

1
ý ( X [3]  X [ 4 ] )
2
1
ý ( 5  6) ý 5.5
2
b) Order the data :1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Here n=5

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~ý X
X n 1
[ ]
2
ý X [3]
ý3

Median for grouped data

If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the median is defined as:
~ ý L  w ( n  c)
X med
f med 2
Where :
L med ý lower class boundary of the median class.
w ý the size of the median class
n ý total number of observations.
c ý the cumulativefrequency(less than type) preceeding the median class.
f med ý thefrequency of the median class.

Remark:
The median class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less than type) greater than or

n
equal to .
2
Example: Find the median of the following distribution.

Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3

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Solutions:
 First find the less than cumulative frequency.
 Identify the median class.
 Find median using formula.

Class Frequency Cumu.Freq(less

than type)
40-44 7 7
45-49 10 17
50-54 22 39
55-59 15 54
60-64 12 66
65-69 6 72
70-74 3 75

n 75
ý ý 37.5
2 2
39 is the first cumulative frequencyto be greater thanor equalto 37.5
 50  54 is the median class.

L ý 49.5, w ý 5
med
n ý 75, c ý 17, f ý 22
med

~
 Xý L  w ( n  c)
med f 2
med
ý 49.5  5 (37.5  17)
22
ý 54.16

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Merits and Demerits of Median

Merits:
 Median is a positional average and hence not influenced by extreme observations.
 Can be calculated in the case of open end intervals.
 Median can be located even if the data are incomplete.

Demerits:
 It is not a good representative of data if the number of items is small.
 It is not amenable to further algebraic treatment.
 It is susceptible to sampling fluctuations.

Quantiles

When a distribution is arranged in order of magnitude of items, the median is the value of the middle
term. Their measures that depend up on their positions in distribution quartiles, deciles, and
percentiles are collectively called quantiles.

Quartiles:
- Quartiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to four equal parts.
- The value of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted Q1, Q2, and Q3
often called the first, the second and the third quartile respectively.
- Q1 is a value which has 25% items which are less than or equal to it. Similarly Q2 has
50%items with value less than or equal to it and Q3 has 75% items whose values are less
than or equal to it.

iN
- To find Qi (i=1, 2, 3) we count of the classes beginning from the lowest class.
4
- For grouped data: we have the following formula

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Q ý L Q  w ( iN  c) ,i ý 1,2,3
i i fQ 4
i
Where :
L Q ý lower classboundary of thequartile class.
i
w ý thesize of thequartile class
N ý total numberof observations.
c ý thecumulativefrequency(lessthantype) preceedingthequartile class.
f Q ý thefrequency of thequartile class.
i

Remark:
The quartile class (class containing Qi ) is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less

iN
than type) greater than or equal to .
4
Deciles:
- Deciles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to ten equal parts.
- The values of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted D1, D2,.. D9 often
called the first, the second,…, the ninth deciles respectively.

iN
- To find Di (i=1, 2,..9) we count of the classes beginning from the lowest class.
10

- For grouped data: we have the following formula

w iN
Di ý LD i  (  c) , i ý 1,2,...,9
f Di 10
Where :
LDi ý lower class boundaryof the decile class.
w ý the size of the decileclass
N ý total number of observations.
c ý the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the decile class.
f Di ý thefrequency of the decile class.

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Remark:
The deciles class (class containing Di) is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less

iN
than type) greater than or equal to .
10

Percentiles:
- Percentiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to hundred equal parts.
- The values of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted P 1, P2,.. P99 often
called the first, the second,…, the ninety-ninth percentile respectively.

iN
- To find Pi (i=1, 2,..99) we count of the classes beginning from the lowest class.
100

- For grouped data: we have the following formula

w iN
P ýL  (  c) , i ý 1,2,...,99
i P
i f P 100
i
Where :
L ý lower class boundary of the percentile class.
P
i
w ý the size of the percentile class
N ý total number of observations.
c ý the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the percentile class.
f ý thefrequency of the percentile class.
P
i

Remark:

The percentile class (class containing Pi) is the class with the small cumulative frequency

iN
(less than type) greater than or equal to .
100
Example: Considering the following distribution

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Calculate:
a) All quartiles.
b) The 7th decile.
c) The 90th percentile.

Values Frequency
140- 150 17
150- 160 29
160- 170 42
170- 180 72
180- 190 84
190- 200 107
200- 210 49
210- 220 34
220- 230 31
230- 240 16
240- 250 12

Solutions:
 First find the less than cumulative frequency.
 Use the formula to calculate the required quantile.
Values Frequency Cum.Freq(less
than type)
140- 150 17 17
150- 160 29 46
160- 170 42 88
170- 180 72 160
180- 190 84 244
190- 200 107 351

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200- 210 49 400

210- 220 34 434
220- 230 31 465
230- 240 16 481
240- 250 12 493

a) Quartiles:
i. Q1
- determine the class containing the first quartile.
N
ý 123.25
4
 170  180 is the class containingthe first quartile.

w N
 Q1 ý LQ1  (  c)
LQ ý 170 ,
1
w ý10 fQ 4
1

N ý 493 , c ý 88 , f Q ý 72
1 ý 170 
10
(123.25  88)
72
ý 174.90

ii. Q2
- determine the class containing the second quartile.

2* N
ý 246.5
4
 190  200 is the class containingthe sec ond quartile.

LQ ý 190 ,
2
w ý10
N ý 493 , c ý 244 , f Q ý107
2

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w 2* N
 Q2 ý LQ  (  c)
2
fQ 4
2

10
ý 170  (246.5  244)
72
ý 190.23

iii. Q3
- determine the class containing the third quartile.

3* N
ý 369.75
4
 200  210 is the class containingthe third quartile.

LQ ý 200 ,
3
w ý10
N ý 493 , c ý 351 , f Q ý 49
3

w 3* N
 Q3 ý LQ 3  (  c)
fQ
3
4
10
ý 200  (369.75  351)
49
ý 203.83

b) D7
- determine the class containing the 7th decile.

7* N
ý 345.1
10
190  200 is the class containingthe seventh decile.
LD ý 190 ,
7
w ý10
N ý 493 , c ý 244 , f D ý107
7

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w 7* N
 D7 ý LD  (  c)
7
fD
7
10
10
ý 190  (345.1  244)
107
ý 199.45

c) P90
- determine the class containing the 90th percentile.
90 * N
ý 443.7
100
 220  230 is the class containingthe 90th percentile.
LP ý 220 ,
90
w ý10
N ý 493 , c ý 434 , f P ý 3107 90

w 90 * N
 P90 ý LP  (  c)
90
f P 100
90

10
ý 220  (443.7  434)
31
ý 223.13

L1.4. Measures of Dispersion (Variation)

Introduction and objectives of measuring Variation
-The scatter or spread of items of a distribution is known as dispersion or variation. In other
words the degree to which numerical data tend to spread about an average value is called
dispersion or variation of the data.
-Measures of dispersions are statistical measures which provide ways of measuring the extent
in which data are dispersed or spread out.

Objectives of measuring Variation:

 To judge the reliability of measures of central tendency

 To control variability itself.
 To compare two or more groups of numbers in terms of their variability.
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 To make further statistical analysis.

Absolute and Relative Measures of Dispersion

The measures of dispersion which are expressed in terms of the original unit of a series are
termed as absolute measures. Such measures are not suitable for comparing the variability of
two distributions which are expressed in different units of measurement and different average
size. Relative measures of dispersions are a ratio or percentage of a measure of absolute
dispersion to an appropriate measure of central tendency and are thus pure numbers
independent of the units of measurement. For comparing the variability of two distributions
(even if they are measured in the same unit), we compute the relative measure of dispersion
instead of absolute measures of dispersion.

Types of Measures of Dispersion

Various measures of dispersions are in use. The most commonly used measures of dispersions
are:
1) Range and relative range
2) Quartile deviation and coefficient of Quartile deviation
3) Mean deviation and coefficient of Mean deviation
4) Standard deviation and coefficient of variation.
4.1.The Range (R)
The range is the largest score minus the smallest score. It is a quick and dirty measure of
variability, although when a test is given back to students they very often wish to know the
range of scores. Because the range is greatly affected by extreme scores, it may give a distorted
picture of the scores. The following two distributions have the same range, 13, yet appear to
differ greatly in the amount of variability.

Distribution 1: 32 35 36 36 37 38 40 42 42 43 43 45
Distribution 2: 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 45
For this reason, among others, the range is not the most important measure of variability.

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R ý LS , L ý l arg est observation

S ý smallest observation
Range for grouped data:
If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the range is computed as:
R ý UCLk  LCL1 , UCLk is upperclass lim it of the last class.
UCL1 is lower class lim it of the first class.

This is some times expressed as:

R ý X k  X1 , X k is class mark of the last class.
X 1 is classmark of the first class.

Merits and Demerits of range

Merits:
 It is rigidly defined.
 It is easy to calculate and simple to understand.
Demerits:
 It is not based on all observation.
 It is highly affected by extreme observations.
 It is affected by fluctuation in sampling.
 It is not liable to further algebraic treatment.
 It can not be computed in the case of open end distribution.
 It is very sensitive to the size of the sample.

Relative Range (RR)

It is also some times called coefficient of range and given by:

LS R
RR ý ý
LS LS
Example:

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1. Find the relative range of the above two distribution. (Exercise!)

2. If the range and relative range of a series are 4 and 0.25 respectively. Then what is the
value of: a) Smallest observation b) Largest observation
Solution: (2)
R ý 4  L  S ý 4 __________ _______(1)
RR ý 0.25  L  S ý 16 __________ ___( 2)
Solving (1) and (2) at the same time , one can obtain the following value
L ý 10 and S ý 6

The Quartile Deviation (Semi-inter quartile range), Q.D

The inter quartile range is the difference between the third and the first quartiles of a set of
items and semi-inter quartile range is half of the inter quartile range.
Q3  Q1
Q.D ý
2
Coefficient of Quartile Deviation (C.Q.D)

(Q3  Q1 2 2 * Q.D Q3  Q1
C. Q.D ý ý ý
(Q3  Q1 ) 2 Q3  Q1 Q3  Q1

 It gives the average amount by which the two quartiles differ from the median.

Example: Compute Q.D and its coefficient for the following distribution.

Values Freq.
140- 150 17
150- 160 29
160- 170 42
170- 180 72
180- 190 84

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190- 200 107 Solutions:

200- 210 49
210- 220 34 In the previous chapter we have obtained the values of
220- 230 31 all quartiles as:
230- 240 16 Q1= 174.90, Q2= 190.23, Q3=203.83
240- 250 12
Q3  Q1 203.83  174.90
 Q.D ý ý ý 14.47
2 2
2 * Q.D 2 *14.47
C.Q.D ý ý ý 0.076
Q3  Q1 203.83  174.90

Remark: Q.D or C.Q.D includes only the middle 50% of the observation.

The Mean Deviation (M.D):

The mean deviation of a set of items is defined as the arithmetic mean of the values of the
absolute deviations from a given average. Depending up on the type of averages used we have
different mean deviations.

a) Mean Deviation about the mean

 Denoted by M.D( X ) and given by

n
õ Xi  X
M .D ( X ) ý i ý1
n
 For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

k
õ fi X i  X
M .D ( X ) ý i ý1
n

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Steps to calculate M.D ( X ):

1. Find the arithmetic mean, X

2. Find the deviations of each reading from X .
3. Find the arithmetic mean of the deviations, ignoring sign.

b) Mean Deviation about the median.

~
 Denoted by M.D( X ) and given by

n ~
~
õ Xi  X
M .D( X ) ý i ý1
n
 For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

k ~
~
õ fi X i  X
M .D ( X ) ý i ý1
n
~
Steps to calculate M.D ( X ):
~
1. Find the median, X
~
2. Find the deviations of each reading from X .
3. Find the arithmetic mean of the deviations, ignoring sign.

c) Mean Deviation about the mode.

 Denoted by M.D( X̂ ) and given by

õX i
ˆ
X
ˆ)ý
M.D( X i ý1
n

 For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

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k
õ f i X i  Xˆ
M .D ( Xˆ ) ý i ý1
n
Steps to calculate M.D ( X̂ ):

1. Find the mode, X̂

2. Find the deviations of each reading from X̂ .
3. Find the arithmetic mean of the deviations, ignoring sign.

Examples:
1. The following are the number of visit made by ten mothers to the local doctor’s surgery. 8, 6,
5, 5, 7, 4, 5, 9, 7, 4
Find mean deviation about mean, median and mode.
Solutions:
First calculate the three averages
~
X ý 6, X ý 5.5, Xˆ ý 5

Then take the deviations of each observation from these averages.

Xi 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 total

Xi  6 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 14

X i  5.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 14

Xi  5 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 14

10
õ X i  6) 14
 M .D( X ) ý i ý1
ý ý 1.4
10 10

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10

~
õ X i  5.5 14
M .D ( X ) ý i ý1
ý ý 1.4
10 10

10
õ X i  5) 14
M .D( Xˆ ) ý i ý1
ý ý 1.4
10 10

2. Find mean deviation about mean, median and mode for the following distributions.(exercise)

Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3

Remark: Mean deviation about the median is always the smallest.

Coefficient of Mean Deviation (C.M.D)

M .D
C.M .D ý
Average about which deviations are taken

M .D( X )
 C.M .D( X ) ý
X

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~
~ M .D( X )
C.M .D( X ) ý ~
X
M .D( Xˆ )
C.M .D( Xˆ ) ý
Xˆ

Example: calculate the C.M.D about the mean, median and mode for the data in example 1
above.

Solutions:
M .D
C.M .D ý
Average about which deviations are taken
~
M .D( X ) 1.4 ~ M .D( X ) 1.4
 C.M .D( X ) ý ý ý 0.233 C.M .D( X ) ý ~ ý ý 0.255
X 6 X 5.5
M .D( Xˆ ) 1.4
C.M .D( Xˆ ) ý ý ý 0.28
Xˆ 5

Exercise: Identify the merits and demerits of Mean Deviation

The Variance
Population Variance
If we divide the variation by the number of values in the population, we get something called
the population variance. This variance is the "average squared deviation from the mean".
1
Population Varince ý  2 ý
N
õ ( X i   ) 2 , i ý 1,2,.....N

For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:

1
Population Varince ý  2 ý
N
õ f i ( X i   ) 2 , i ý 1,2,.....k

Sample Variance
One would expect the sample variance to simply be the population variance with the
population mean replaced by the sample mean. However, one of the major uses of statistics is

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to estimate the corresponding parameter. This formula has the problem that the estimated value
isn't the same as the parameter. To counteract this, the sum of the squares of the deviations is
divided by one less than the sample size.
1
Sample Varince ý S 2 ý
n 1
õ ( X i  X ) 2 , i ý 1,2,.....,n

For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:

1
Sample Varince ý S 2 ý
n 1
õ f i ( X i  X ) 2 , i ý 1,2,.....k

We usually use the following short cut formula.

n
õ Xi  nX 2
2

S2 ý i ý1
, for raw data.
n 1
k
õ fi X i  nX 2
2

S2 ý i ý1
, for frequency distribution.
n 1
4.2.Standard Deviation
There is a problem with variances. Recall that the deviations were squared. That means that the
units were also squared. To get the units back the same as the original data values, the square
root must be taken.
Population s tan dard deviation ý  ý  2
Sample s tan dard deviation ý s ý S 2

The following steps are used to calculate the sample variance:

1. Find the arithmetic mean.

2. Find the difference between each observation and the mean.
3. Square these differences.
4. Sum the squared differences.
5. Since the data is a sample, divide the number (from step 4 above) by the number of
observations minus one, i.e., n-1 (where n is equal to the number of observations in the data
set).

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Examples: Find the variance and standard deviation of the following sample data
1. 5, 17, 12, 10.
2. The data is given in the form of frequency distribution.
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3

Solutions:

1. X ý 11

Xi 5 10 12 17 Total

(Xi- X)2 36 1 1 36 74

n
õ ( X i  X )2 74
 S2 ý i ý1
ý ý 24.67.
n 1 3
 S ý S 2 ý 24.67 ý 4.97.

2. X ý 55

Xi(C.M) 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 Total

fi(Xi- X)2 1183 640 198 60 588 864 867 4400

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n
õ fi ( X i  X )2 4400
 S 2 ý i ý1 ý ý 59.46.
n 1 74
 S ý S 2 ý 59.46 ý 7.71.

Special properties of Standard deviations

1.
õ ( X i  X )2 ü õ ( X i  A) 2 , A  X
n 1 n 1
2. For normal (symmetric) distribution the following holds.
 Approximately 68.27% of the data values fall within one standard deviation of the mean.

i.e. with in ( X  S, X  S)
 Approximately 95.45% of the data values fall within two standard deviations of the mean.

i.e. with in ( X  2S , X  2S )
 Approximately 99.73% of the data values fall within three standard deviations of the mean.

i.e. with in ( X  3S , X  3S )
3. Chebyshev's Theorem

For any data set ,no matter what the pattern of variation, the proportion of the values that fall

1
with in k standard deviations of the mean or ( X  kS , X  kS ) will be at least 1 ,
k2
where k is a number greater than 1. i.e. the proportion of items falling beyond k standard

1
deviations of the mean is at most
k2
Example: Suppose a distribution has mean 50 and standard deviation 6. What percent of the
numbers are?

a) Between 38 and 62

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b) Between 32 and 68
c) Less than 38 or more than 62.
d) Less than 32 or more than 68.
Solutions:

a) 38 and 62 are at equal distance from the mean,50 and this distance is 12
 ks ý 12
12 12
ký ý ý2
S 6

1
 Applying the above theorem, at least (1  ) *100% ý 75% of the numbers lie
k2
between 38 and 62

b) Similarly done.

1
c) It is just the complement of a) i.e. at most 2
*100% ý 25% of the numbers lie less
k
than 32 or more than 62.
d) Similarly done.

Exercise: The average score of a special test of knowledge of wood refinishing has a mean of
53 and standard deviation of 6. Find the range of values in which at least 75% the scores will
lie.

4. If the standard deviation of X 1 , X 2 , .....X n is S , then the standard deviation of

a) X1  k , X 2  k , .....X n  k will alsobe S
b) kX1 , kX 2 , .....kX n would be k S
c) a  kX1 , a  kX 2 , .....a  kX n would be k S

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Exercise: Verify each of the above relation ship, considering k and a as constants.

Examples:

1. The mean and standard deviation of n Tetracycline Capsules X 1 , X 2 , .....X n are

known to be 12 gm and 3 gm respectively. New set of capsules of another drug are obtained
by the linear transformation Yi = 2Xi – 0.5 ( i = 1, 2, …, n ) then what will be the standard
deviation of the new set of capsules.

2. The mean and the standard deviation of a set of numbers are respectively 500 and 10.
a) If 10 are added to each of the numbers in the set, then what will be the variance and
standard deviation of the new set?
b) If each of the numbers in the set are multiplied by -5, then what will be the variance and
standard deviation of the new set?

Solutions:

1. Using c) above the new standard deviation = k S ý 2*3 ý 6

2. a. They will remain the same.

b. New standard deviation ý k S ý 5 *10 ý 50

Coefficient of Variation (C.V)

 Is defined as the ratio of standard deviation to the mean usually expressed as percents.
S
C.V ý *100
X
 The distribution having less C.V is said to be less variable or more consistent.

Example: An analysis of the monthly wages paid (in Birr) to workers in two firms A and B
belonging to the same industry gives the following results

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Value Firm A Firm B

Mean wage 52.5 47.5
Median wage 50.5 45.5
Variance 100 121

In which firm A or B is there greater variability in individual wages?

Solutions:
Calculate coefficient of variation for both firms.
SA 10
C.VA ý *100 ý *100 ý 19.05%
XA 52.5
SB 11
C.VB ý *100 ý *100 ý 23.16%
XB 47.5
Since C.VA < C.VB, in firm B there is greater variability in individual wages.

Exercise: A meteorologist interested in the consistency of temperatures in three cities during a

given week collected the following data. The temperatures for the five days of the week in the three
cities were

City 1 25 24 23 26 17
City2 22 21 24 22 20
City3 32 27 35 24 28

Which city have the most consistent temperature, based on these data?

Standard Scores (Z-scores)

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 If X is a measurement from a distribution with mean X and standard deviation S,

then its value in standard units is

X 
Zý , for population.

X X
Zý , for sample
S
 Z gives the deviations from the mean in units of standard deviation
 Z gives the number of standard deviation a particular observation lie above or below
the mean.
 It is used to compare two observations coming from different groups.

Examples:
1. Two sections were given introduction to statistics examinations. The following information
was given.

Value Section 1 Section 2

Mean 78 90
Stan.deviation 6 5

Student A from section 1 scored 90 and student B from section 2 scored 95.Relatively speaking
who performed better?

Solutions:
Calculate the standard score of both students.
X A  X 1 90  78
ZA ý ý ý2
S1 6
X B  X 2 95  90
ZB ý ý ý1
S2 5

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 Student A performed better relative to his section because the score of student A is two
standard deviations above the mean score of his section while, the score of student B is only
one standard deviation above the mean score of his section.

2. Two groups of people were trained to perform a certain task and tested to find out which
group is faster to learn the task. For the two groups the following information was given:
Value Group one Group two

Mean 10.4 min 11.9 min

Stan.dev. 1.2 min 1.3 min

Relatively speaking:
a) Which group is more consistent in its performance
b) Suppose a person A from group one take 9.2 minutes while person B
from Group two take 9.3 minutes, who was faster in performing the
task? Why?
Solutions:

a) Use coefficient of variation.

S1 1.2
C.V1 ý *100 ý *100 ý 11.54%
X1 10.4
S2 1.3
C.V2 ý *100 ý *100 ý 10.92%
X2 11.9
Since C.V2 < C.V1, group 2 is more consistent.

b) Calculate the standard score of A and B

X A  X 1 9.2  10.4
ZA ý ý ý 1
S1 1.2
X B  X 2 9.3  11.9
ZB ý ý ý 2
S2 1.3

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Child B is faster because the time taken by child B is two standard deviations shorter than
the average time taken by group 2, while the time taken by child A is only one standard
deviation shorter than the average time taken by group 1.
L1.5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

Definitions of some probability terms

1. Probability-is the chance that something will happen.
2. Experiment: probability theory is used as a model for which the outcome occur randomly.
3. Sample space- is the set of all possible outcome of the experiment. The size of sample
space is finite, countable infinite or uncountable infinite .
Examples:
A. the outcome of any of replication is the number of germinating seeds ,since 100 seeds were are
monitored the number of germinating could be anything from 0-100.
S= {0,1,2,….100} …… finite sample space
B. The survival time in weeks could be any non _negative integer
S={0,1,2…}…… countable infinite sample space
C. leaf size could be any positive real number S=R+ ={0,∞} uncountable infinite sample space
4. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or more outcomes of a
random experiment .They are denoted by capital letters. There are 4 types of events
A. Null events – is the empty subset of the sample space.
B. An atomic event is a subset consisting of a single element of the sample space.
C. A compound event is a subset consisting more than one element of the sample space.
D. The sample space itself is also an event.
Example: Considering in a rolling of dice only one time, let A be the event of odd numbers, B be the
event of even numbers, C be the event of number 8 and D the event of number 4.

 A ý 1,3,5
B ý 2,4,6
C ý   or empty spaceor impossibleevent
Remark: If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or events.

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6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non-occurrence of A and is

denoted by A' , or Ac , or A contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong
to A.
8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the same time.
10. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect
the probability of the other occurring.
11. Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.

Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment

a) Toss a die one time.

b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by time.

Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be
 Countable ( finite or infinite)
 Uncountable.
Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event
 The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.

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- The addition rule

- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule

THE ADDITION RULE :

If E & F are two events which can occur simultaneously then the probability that either E or F will
be occur is P(E) +P(F)
The Multiplication Rule: If E & F are two independent events then the probability that both occur
P(E) *P(F)
If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways, the second can be
made in n2 ways, …, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in

(n1 * n2 * ........* nk ) ways.

Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card. How many
different cards are possible if a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.

 5 * 5 * 5 * 5 ý 625 different cards are possible.

b)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit

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5 4 3 2

There are four steps

1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 4 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 3 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 2 ways.

 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 ý 120 different cards are possible.

Permutation

An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called permutation of the objects.

Permutation Rules:
1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is n!

Where n!ý n * (n  1) * (n  2) * .....* 3 * 2 *1

2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a time is called the

permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as n Pr and the formula

is

n!
n Pr ý
(n  r )!
3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike k2 are alike etc is

n!
ý
k1!*k2 * ...* kn

Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there if two letters are used at a time?

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2. How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the word
<CORRECTION=?
Solutions: 1. a)
Here n ý 4, there are four disnict object
 There are 4!ý 24 permutations.
b)
Here n ý 4, r ý 2
4! 24
 There are 4 P2 ý ý ý 12 permutations.
(4  2)! 2
2.
Here n ý 10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O, 2 are R ,1E ,1T ,1I ,1N
 K1 ý 2, k 2 ý 2, k 3 ý 2, k 4 ý k 5 ý k 6 ý k 7 ý 1
U sin g the 3rd rule of permutation , there are
10!
ý 453600 permutations.
2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1!
Combination

A selection of objects with out regard to order is called combination.

Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination for selecting two
letters.
Solutions:
Permutation Combination

AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC

Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule

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ö nö
The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by n Cr or ÷÷ ÷÷
ørø
and is given by the formula:

ö nö n!
÷÷ ÷÷ ý
ø r ø (n  r )!*r!
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people is chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:
ný9 , r ý5
önö n! 9!
÷÷ ÷÷ ý ý ý 126 ways
ø ø
r ( n  r )!* r! 4!* 5!
2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives .In how many ways can an inspector chose three
of the clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
Solutions: n=15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are non-defective; and r=3

a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks and this can be done in :
n ý 15 , r ý 3
önö n! 15!
÷÷ ÷÷ ý ý ý 455 ways
ø ø
r ( n  r )!* r! 12!* 3!

b) None of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to zero defective and three non defective, which can be done
in:

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ö 2 ö ö13 ö
÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý 286 ways.
ø 0ø ø 3 ø

c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to one defective and two non defective, which can be done in:

ö 2 ö ö13 ö
÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý 156 ways.
ø1ø ø 2 ø
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
This is equivalent to two defective and one non defective, which can be done in:

ö 2 ö ö13 ö
÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý 13 ways.
ø 2ø ø 3 ø
Approaches to measuring Probability
There are 3 different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The frequenters approach.
 The subjective approach.

The classical approach

This approach is used when:

- All outcomes are equally likely.
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes is conducted and out of
these NA outcomes are favorable to the event A, then the probability that event A occur

denoted P(A) is defined as:

N A No. of outcomes favourableto A n( A)
P( A) ý ý ý
N Total numberof outcomes n( S )
Examples:

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1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting

a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S

S ý 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
 N ý n( S ) ý 6
a) Let A be the event of number 4 c) Let A be the event of even numbers
A ý 4 A ý 2,4,6
 N A ý n( A) ý 1  N A ý n( A) ý 3
n( A) n( A)
P( A) ý ý1 6 P( A) ý ý 3 6 ý 0.5
n( S ) n( S )
b) Let A be the event of odd numbers d) Let A be the event of number 8
A ý 1,3,5 A ý {}
 N A ý n( A) ý 3  N A ý n( A) ý 0
n( A) n( A)
P( A) ý ý 3 6 ý 0.5 P( A) ý ý0 6ý0
n( S ) n( S )
2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective candles. If 10 of this
candles are selected at random, what is the probability that
a) All will be defective.
b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective

ö 80 ö
Solutions: Total selection ý ÷÷ ÷÷ ý N ý n( S )
ø10 ø
a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.

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ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
Total way in which A occur ý ÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý N A ý n( A)
ø 10 ø ø 0 ø
ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
÷ ÷*÷ ÷
n( A) ÷ø 10 ÷ø ÷ø 0 ÷ø
 P( A) ý ý ý 0.00001825
n( S ) ö 80 ö
÷÷ ÷÷
ø 10 ø
b) Let A be the event that 6 will be non defective.
ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
Total way in which A occur ý ÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý N A ý n( A)
ø4ø ø6ø
ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
÷ ÷*÷ ÷
n( A) ÷ø 4 ÷ø ÷ø 6 ÷ø
 P( A) ý ý ý 0.265
n( S ) ö 80 ö
÷÷ ÷÷
ø 10 ø
c) Let A be the event that all will be non defective.
ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
Total way in which A occur ý ÷÷ ÷÷ * ÷÷ ÷÷ ý N A ý n( A)
ø 0 ø ø 10 ø
ö 30 ö ö 50 ö
÷ ÷*÷ ÷
n( A) ÷ø 0 ÷ø ÷ø 10 ÷ø
 P( A) ý ý ý 0.00624
n( S ) ö 80 ö
÷÷ ÷÷
ø 10 ø
 Short coming of the classical approach:
This approach is not applicable when:
- The total number of outcomes is infinite.
- Outcomes are not equally likely.

The Frequentist Approach

This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to an event.
Relative frequency, which is the ratio of the occurrence of a singular event and the total number
of outcomes.
Example: 1. find the relative frequency of the data set
color frequency Relative frequency

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Purple 7 7/20 = 35%

Blue 3 3/20 = 15%
Pink 5 5/20 = 25%
Orange 5 5/20 = 25%
total 20 20/20 = 100%

2. If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective. What is the
probability of a newly produced bulb to be defective?

Solution: Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.

NA 60
P( A) ý lim ý ý 0.0006
N  N 100,000
Subjective approach - this is type of probability based on the beliefs of the person making the
probability assessment . subjective probability assessment are often found when events occur
only once or at most every few times.
The disadvantages of subjective probability is that two or more person facing the same
evidence / problem may arrive different probability. That is for the same problem there may be
different decision.
Conditional probability and Independency

Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect on the next occurrence of the
other event then the two events are conditional or dependant events.

Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement

Since the first drawn ball is replaced for a second draw it doesn’t affect the second
draw. For this reason A and B are independent. Then if we let
2
A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A) ý
5

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2
B= the event that the second draw is red  p( B) ý
5
2. Draw a ball with out replacement

This is conditional b/c the first drawn ball is not to be replaced for a second draw
in that it does affect the second draw. If we let

2
A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A) ý
5
B= the event that the second draw is red  p( B) ý ?
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that the first draw is red P(B) = 1/4

Conditional probability of an event

The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already occurred, denoted by

p( A B) is

p( A  B)
p( A B) = , p( B)  0
p( B)
Remark: (1) p ( A' B ) ý 1  p ( A B ) (2) p( B ' A) ý 1  p( B A)
Examples 1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the probability is 0.25
that he/she will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that
he/she will get scholarship and will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who
get a scholarship graduate?

Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a scholarship

B= the event that a student will graduate

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given p( A) ý 0.25, p( B) ý 0.75, pø A  B ù ý 0.20

Re quired pøB Aù
pø A  B ù 0.20
p ø B Aù ý ý ý 0.80
p ø Aù 0.25
1. If the probability that a research project will be well planned is 0.60 and the probability
that it will be well planned and well executed is 0.54, what is the probability that it will
be well executed given that it is well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be well
Planned
B= the event that a research project will be well
Executed

given p( A) ý 0.60, pø A  B ù ý 0.54

Re quired pøB Aù
pø A  B ù 0.54
p ø B Aù ý ý ý 0.90
p ø Aù 0.60

Exercise: A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective items from which two items are
chosen without replacement. Events A & B are defined as A = the first item chosen is
defective, B = the second item chosen is defective
a) What is the probability that both items are defective?
b) What is the probability that the second item is defective?

Note: for any two events A and B the following relation holds.

ø
pøB ù ý pøB Aù. pø Aù  p B A' . p A' ù ø ù
Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if pø A  B ù ý pø Aù. pøB ù

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Here pø A B ù ý pø Aù, P ø B Aù ý p ø B ù
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the probability of getting two
black balls in drawing one after the other under the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
Required pø A  B ù
a. pø A  B ù ý pøB Aù. pø Aù ý ø3 / 9ùø4 10ù ý 2 15
b. pø A  B ù ý pø Aù. pøB ù ý ø4 10ùø4 10ù ý 4 25

L1.6. ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

 Inference is the process of making interpretations or conclusions from sample data for the
totality of the population.
 It is only the sample data that is ready for inference.
 In statistics there are two ways though which inference can be made.
 Statistical estimation
 Statistical hypothesis testing.

Inference Analyzed
Population
Data

Numerical
Sample
data

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Data analysis is the process of extracting relevant information from the summarized data.

Statistical Estimation
This is one way of making inference about the population parameter where the investigator
does not have any prior notion about values or characteristics of the population parameter.
There are two ways estimation.
1) Point Estimation
It is a procedure that results in a single value as an estimate for a parameter.
2) Interval estimation
It is the procedure that results in the interval of values as an estimate for a parameter, which
is interval that contains the likely values of a parameter. It deals with identifying the upper
and lower limits of a parameter. The limits by themselves are random variable.
Definitions
Confidence Interval: An interval estimate with a specific level of confidence
Confidence Level: The percent of the time that the true value will lie in the interval
estimate given.
Consistent Estimator: An estimator which gets closer to the value of the parameter as the
sample size increases.
Degrees of Freedom: The number of data values which are allowed to vary once a statistic
has been determined.
Estimator: A sample statistic which is used to estimate a population parameter. It must be
unbiased, consistent, and relatively efficient.
Estimate: Is the different possible values which an estimator can assumes.
Interval Estimate: A range of values used to estimate a parameter.
Point Estimate: A single value used to estimate a parameter.
Relatively Efficient Estimator: The estimator for a parameter with the smallest variance.
Unbiased Estimator: An estimator whose expected value is the value of the parameter
being estimated.

Point and Interval estimation of the population mean: µ

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 Point Estimation
Another term for statistic is point estimate, since we are estimating the parameter value. A
point estimator is the mathematical way we compute the point estimate. For instance, sum of

xi over n is the point estimator used to compute the estimate of the population means,  .That
õ xi
is Xý is a point estimator of the population mean.
n
 Confidence interval estimation of the population mean

Although X possesses nearly all the qualities of a good estimator, because of sampling error,
we know that it's not likely that our sample statistic will be equal to the population parameter,
but instead will fall into an interval of values. We will have to be satisfied knowing that the
statistic is "close to" the parameter. That leads to the obvious question, what is "close"?

We can phrase the latter question differently: How confident can we be that the value of the
statistic falls within a certain "distance" of the parameter? Or, what is the probability that the
parameter's value is within a certain range of the statistic's value? This range is the confidence
interval.
The confidence level is the probability that the value of the parameter falls within the range
specified by the confidence interval surrounding the statistic.
 There are different cases to be considered to construct confidence intervals.
Case 1: If sample size is large or if the population is normal with known variance
Recall the Central Limit Theorem, which applies to the sampling distribution of the mean of a
sample. Consider samples of size n drawn from a population, whose mean is  and standard
deviation is  with replacement and order important. The population can have any frequency
distribution. The sampling distribution of X will have a mean  x ý  and a standard


deviation  x ý , and approaches a normal distribution as n gets large. This allows us to
n
use the normal distribution curve for computing confidence intervals.

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X 
Z ý has a normal distribution with mean ý 0 and var iance ý 1
 n
  ý X  Z n
ý X , where  is a measure of error.
 ý Z n
- For the interval estimator to be good the error should be small. How it be small?
 By making n large
 Small variability
 Taking Z small
- To obtain the value of Z, we have to attach this to a theory of chance. That is, there is an area of size
1ñ such that
P (  Zñ 2 ü Z ü Zñ 2 ) ý 1  ñ
Where ñ ý is the probabilit y that the parameter lies outside the int erval
Zñ 2 ý s tan ds for the s tan dard normal var iable to the right of which
ñ 2 probabilit y lies , i.e P( Z þ Zñ 2 ) ý ñ 2
X 
 P( Zñ 2 ü ü Zñ 2 ) ý 1  ñ
 n
 P( X  Zñ 2  n ü  ü X  Zñ 2  n) ý 1  ñ

 ( X  Zñ 2  n , X  Zñ 2  n ) is a100ø1  ñ ù% conifidenc e int erval for 

But usually 
2
is not known, in that case we estimate by its point estimator S2

 ( X  Zñ 2 S n , X  Zñ 2 S n ) is a100ø1  ñ ù% conifidenc e int erval for 

Here are the Z values corresponding to the most commonly used confidence levels.

100(1  ñ ) ñ ñ 2 Zñ 2
%
90 0.10 0.05 1.645

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95 0.05 0.025 1.96

99 0.01 0.005 2.58
Case

2: If sample size is small and the population variance,  2 is not known.

X 
tý has t distributi on with n  1 deg rees of freedom.
S n
 ( X  tñ 2 S n , X  tñ 2 S n ) is a100ø1  ñ ù% conifidenc e int erval for 

The unit of measurement of the confidence interval is the standard error. This is just the
standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the statistic.
Examples:
1. From a normal sample of size 25 a mean of 32 was found .Given that the population
standard deviation is 4.2. Find
a) A 95% confidence interval for the population mean.
b) A 99% confidence interval for the population mean.
Solution:
a)

X ý 32,  ý 4.2, 1  ñ ý 0.95  ñ ý 0.05, ñ 2 ý 0.025

 Zñ 2 ý 1.96 from table.
 The required int erval will be X  Zñ 2  n
ý 32  1.96 * 4.2 25
ý 32  1.65
ý (30.35, 33.65)

b)

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X ý 32,  ý 4.2, 1  ñ ý 0.99  ñ ý 0.01, ñ 2 ý 0.005

 Zñ 2 ý 2.58 from table.
 The required int erval will be X  Zñ 2  n
ý 32  2.58 * 4.2 25
ý 32  2.17
ý (29.83, 34.17)
2. A drug company is testing a new drug which is supposed to reduce blood pressure. From
the six people who are used as subjects, it is found that the average drop in blood pressure
is 2.28 points, with a standard deviation of .95 points. What is the 95% confidence interval
for the mean change in pressure?
Solution:

X ý 2.28, S ý 0.95, 1  ñ ý 0.95  ñ ý 0.05, ñ 2 ý 0.025

 tñ 2 ý 2.571 with df ý 5 from table.
 The required int erval will be X  tñ 2 S n
ý 2.28  2.571 * 0.95 6
ý 2.28  1.008
ý (1.28, 3.28)
That is, we can be 95% confident that the mean decrease in blood pressure is between 1.28 and 3.28
points.
Hypothesis Testing
This is also one way of making inference about population parameter, where the investigator has prior
notion about the value of the parameter.
Definitions:
 Statistical hypothesis: is an assertion or statement about the population whose plausibility is
to be evaluated on the basis of the sample data.
 Test statistic: is a statistics whose value serves to determine whether to reject or accept the
hypothesis to be tested. It is a random variable.

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 Statistic test: is a test or procedure used to evaluate a statistical hypothesis and its value
depends on sample data.
There are two types of hypothesis:
Null hypothesis:
- It is the hypothesis to be tested.
- It is the hypothesis of equality or the hypothesis of no difference.
- Usually denoted by H0.
Alternative hypothesis:
- It is the hypothesis available when the null hypothesis has to be rejected.
- It is the hypothesis of difference.
- Usually denoted by H1 or Ha.

Types and size of errors:

- Testing hypothesis is based on sample data which may involve sampling and non sampling
errors.
- The following table gives a summary of possible results of any hypothesis test:
Decision

Reject H0 Don't reject H0

H0 Type I Error Right Decision

Truth
H1 Right Decision Type II Error

- Type I error: Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.

- Type II error: Failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false.
NOTE:
1. There are errors that are prevalent in any two choice decision making problems.
2. There is always a possibility of committing one or the other errors.
3. Type I error ( ñ ) and type II error ( ò ) have inverse relationship and therefore, can not be
minimized at the same time.

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 In practice we set ñ at some value and design a test that minimize ò . This is because a type I
error is often considered to be more serious, and therefore more important to avoid, than a type
II error.

General steps in hypothesis testing:

1. Specify the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (H1).
2. Specify the significance level, ñ
3. Identify the sampling distribution (if it is Z or t) of the estimator.
4. Identify the critical region.
5. Calculate a statistic analogous to the parameter specified by the null hypothesis.
6. Making decision.
7. Summarization of the result.
Hypothesis testing about the population mean,  :

Suppose the assumed or hypothesized value of  is denoted by  0 , then one can formulate two

sided (1) and one sided (2 and 3) hypothesis as follows:

1. H 0 :  ý 0 vs H1 :   0
2. H 0 :  ý 0 vs H1 :  þ 0
3. H 0 :  ý 0 vs H1 :  ü 0

Case 1: When sampling is from a normal distribution with  2 known

- The relevant test statistic is
X  0
Z cal ý
 n
- After specifying ñ we have the following regions (critical and acceptance) on the standard
normal distribution corresponding to the above three hypothesis.

Summary table for decision rule:

H0 Reject H0 if Accept H0 if Inconclusive if

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  0 Z cal þ Zñ 2 Z cal ü Zñ 2 Z cal ý Zñ 2 or Z cal ý Zñ 2

 ü 0 Z cal ü Zñ Z cal þ Zñ Z cal ý Zñ
 þ 0 Z cal þ Zñ Z cal ü Zñ Z cal ý Zñ

Case 2: When sampling is from a normal distribution with  2 unknown and small sample size
- The relevant test statistic is
X  0
t cal ý ~ t with n  1 deg rees of freedom.
S n
- After specifying ñ we have the following regions on the student t-distribution
corresponding to the above three hypothesis.
H0 Reject H0 if Accept H0 if Inconclusive if

  0 tcal þ tñ 2 tcal ü tñ 2 tcal ý tñ 2 or tcal ý tñ 2

 ü 0 tcal ü tñ tcal þ tñ tcal ý tñ
 þ 0 tcal þ tñ tcal ü tñ tcal ý tñ

Case 3: When sampling is from a non- normally distributed population or a population

whose functional form is unknown.
- If a sample size is large one can perform a test hypothesis about the mean by using:

X  0
Z cal ý , if  2 is known.
 n
X  0
ý , if  2 is unknown.
S n
- The decision rule is the same as case I.

Examples:

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1. Test the hypotheses that the average height content of containers of certain lubricant is 10 liters if
the contents of a random sample of 10 containers are 10.2, 9.7, 10.1, 10.3, 10.1, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4,
10.3, and 9.8 liters. Use the 0.01 level of significance and assume that the distribution of contents
is normal.

Solution:

Let  ý Population mean. , 0 ý 10

Step 1: Identify the appropriate hypothesis

H 0 :  ý 10 vs H1 :   10
Step 2: select the level of significance, ñ ý 0.01( given)
Step 3: Select an appropriate test statistics
t- Statistic is appropriate because population variance is not known and the sample size is
also small.
Step 4: identify the critical region.
Here we have two critical regions since we have two tailed hypothesis

The critical region is tcal þ t0.005 (9) ý 3.2498

 (3.2498, 3.2498) is accep tan ce region.
Step 5: Computations:

X ý 10.06, S ý 0.25
X   0 10.06  10
 t cal ý ý ý 0.76
S n 0.25 10
Step 6: Decision
Accept H0 , since tcal is in the acceptance region.
Step 7: Conclusion
At 1% level of significance, we have no evidence to say that the average height content of
containers of the given lubricant is different from 10 litters, based on the given sample data.

2. The mean life time of a sample of 16 fluorescent light bulbs produced by a company is computed
to be 1570 hours. The population standard deviation is 120 hours. Suppose the hypothesized value

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for the population mean is 1600 hours. Can we conclude that the life time of light bulbs is
decreasing?
(Use ñ ý 0.05 and assume the normality of the population)
Solution:

Let  ý Population mean. , 0 ý 1600

Step 1: Identify the appropriate hypothesis

H 0 :  ý 1600 vs H1 :  ü 1600
Step 2: select the level of significance, ñ ý 0.05 ( given)
Step 3: Select an appropriate test statistics
Z- Statistic is appropriate because population variance is known.
Step 4: identify the critical region.

The critical region is Z cal ü Z 0.05 ý 1.645

 (1.645, ) is accep tan ce region.
Step 5: Computations:

X   0 1570  1600
Z cal ý ý ý 1.0
 n 120 16
Step 6: Decision
Accept H0, since Zcal is in the acceptance region.
Step 7: Conclusion
At 5% level of significance, we have no evidence to say that that the life time of light bulbs is
decreasing, based on the given sample data.

Exercise: It is known in a pharmacological experiment that rats fed with a particular diet over a
certain period gain an average of 40 gms in weight. A new diet was tried on a sample of 20 rats
yielding a weight gain of 43 gms with variance 7 gms. Test the hypothesis that the new diet is an
improvement assuming normality.

Test of Association

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 Suppose we have a population consisting of observations having two attributes or qualitative

characteristics say A and B.
 If the attributes are independent then the probability of possessing both A and B is PA*PB
Where PA is the probability that a number has attribute A.
PB is the probability that a number has attribute B.

- Suppose A has r mutually exclusive and exhaustive classes.

B has c mutually exclusive and exhaustive classes

- The entire set of data can be represented using r * c contingency table.

B
A B1 B2 . . Bj . Bc Total
A1 O11 O12 O1j O1c R1
A2 O21 O22 O2j O2c R2
.
.
Ai Oi1 Oi2 Oij Oic Ri
.
.
Ar Or1 Or2 Orj Orc
Total C1 C2 Cj n

- The chi-square procedure test is used to test the hypothesis of independency of two attributes
.For instance we may be interested
 Whether the presence or absence of hypertension is independent of
smoking habit or not.
 Whether the size of the family is independent of the level of education
attained by the mothers.
 Whether there is association between father and son regarding boldness.

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 Whether there is association between stability of marriage and period of

acquaintance ship prior to marriage.

- The ó 2 statistic is given by:

ù (Oij  eij ) 2 ù
ó 2 ( r 1)(c 1)
r c
ó 2
cal ý õ õú ú ~
i ý1 j ý1ú
û eij ûú
Where Oij ý the numberof units that belongto categoryi of A and j of B.
eij ý Expected frequencythat belongto categoryi of A and j of B.

- The eij is given by :

Where Ri ý the i th row total .

Ri * C j
eij ý C j ý the j th column total .
n
n ý total number of oservations
r c r c
Remark: n ý õ õ Oij ý õ õ eij
i ý1 j ý1 i ý1 j ý1

- The null and alternative hypothesis may be stated as:

H 0 : Thereis no association between A and B.
H1 : not H 0 ( Thereis association between A and B).

Decision Rule:Reject H0 for independency at ñ level of significance if the calculated value of

ó 2 exceeds the tabulated value with degree of freedom equal to (r  1)(c  1) .

ù (Oij  eij ) 2 ù
ó 2 ( r 1)(c 1) at ñ
r c
 Reject H 0 if ó 2
cal ý õ õú úþ
i ý1 j ý1ú
û eij ûú

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Examples:
1. A geneticist took a random sample of 300 men to study whether there is association between
father and son regarding boldness. He obtained the following results.

Son
Father Bold Not
Bold 85 59
Not 65 91
Using ñ ý 5% , test whether there is association between father and son regarding boldness.
Solution:

H 0 : Thereis no association between Father and Son regardingboldness.

H1 : not H 0

- First calculate the row and column totals

R1 ý 144, R2 ý 156, C1 ý 150, C2 ý 150
- Then calculate the expected frequencies( eij’s)
Ri * C j
eij ý
n
R1 * C1 144 *150 R1 * C2 144 *150
 e11 ý ý ý 72 e12 ý ý ý 72
n 300 n 300

R2 * C1 156 *150 R2 * C2 156 *150

e21 ý ý ý 78 e22 ý ý ý 78
n 300 n 300
- Obtain the calculated value of the chi-square.
2 2 ù (Oij  eij ) 2 ù
ó 2
cal ý õ õú ú
i ý1 j ý1ú e úû
û ij

(85  72) 2 (59  72) 2 (65  78) 2 (91  78) 2

ý    ý 9.028
72 72 78 78

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- Obtain the tabulated value of chi-square

ñ ý 0.05
Degrees of freedom ý (r  1)(c  1) ý 1*1 ý 1
ó 02.05 (1) ý 3.841 from table.
- The decision is to reject H0 since ó 2 cal þ ó 02.05 (1)
Conclusion: At 5% level of significance we have evidence to say there is association
between father and son regarding boldness, based on this sample data.
2. Random samples of 200 men, all retired were classified according to education and number of
children is as shown below
Education Number of children
level 0-1 2-3 Over 3
Elementary 14 37 32
Secondary 31 59 27
and above
Test the hypothesis that the size of the family is independent of the level of education attained
by fathers. (Use 5% level of significance)

Solution:
H 0 : There is no associatio n between the size of the family and the level of
education attained by fathers.
H1 : not H 0 .
- First calculate the row and column totals
R1 ý 83, R2 ý 117, C1 ý 45, C2 ý 96, C3 ý 59
- Then calculate the expected frequencies( eij’s)
Ri * C j  e11 ý 18.675, e12 ý 39.84, e13 ý 24.485
eij ý
n e21 ý 26.325, e22 ý 56.16, e23 ý 34.515
- Obtain the calculated value of the chi-square.

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2 3 ù (Oij  eij ) 2 ù
ó 2
cal ý õ õú ú
i ý1 j ý1ú
û eij ûú
(14  18.675) 2 (37  39.84) 2 (27  34.515) 2
ý   ...  ý 6.3
18.675 39.84 34.515
- Obtain the tabulated value of chi-square
ñ ý 0.05
Degrees of freedom ý (r  1)(c  1) ý 1* 2 ý 2
ó 02.05 (2) ý 5.99 from table.
- The decision is to reject H0 since ó 2 cal þ ó 02.05 (2)
Conclusion: At 5% level of significance we have evidence to say there is association between
the size of the family and the level of education attained by fathers, based on this sample data.

L1.7. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION

7.1.Introduction
Linear regression and correlation is studying and measuring the linear relation ship among two
or more variables. When only two variables are involved, the analysis is referred to as simple
correlation and simple linear regression analysis, and when there are more than two variables
the term multiple regression and partial correlation is used.

Regression Analysis: is a statistical technique that can be used to develop a mathematical

equation showing how variables are related.

Correlation Analysis: deals with the measurement of the closeness of the relation ship which
are described in the regression equation.
We say there is correlation if the two series of items vary together directly or inversely.
7.2.Correlation Analysis

Simple Correlation: Suppose we have two variables X ý ( X 1 , X 2 ,...X n ) and

Y ý (Y1 , Y2 ,...Yn )

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 When higher values of X are associated with higher values of Y and lower values of X
are associated with lower values of Y, then the correlation is said to be positive or
direct.
Examples:
- Income and expenditure
- Number of hours spent in studying and the score obtained
- Height and weight
- Distance covered and fuel consumed by car.
 When higher values of X are associated with lower values of Y and lower values of X
are associated with higher values of Y, then the correlation is said to be negative or
inverse.
Examples:
- Demand and supply
- Income and the proportion of income spent on food.
The correlation between X and Y may be one of the following
1. Perfect positive (slope=1)
2. Positive (slope between 0 and 1)
3. No correlation (slope=0)
4. Negative (slope between -1 and 0)
5. Perfect negative (slope=-1)

The presence of correlation between two variables may be due to three reasons:
1.One variable being the cause of the other. The cause is called <subject= or
<independent= variable, while the effect is called <dependent= variable.
2.Both variables being the result of a common cause. That is, the correlation that
exists between two variables is due to their being related to some third force.
Example:
Let X1= ESLCE result
Y1= rate of surviving in the University
Y2= the rate of getting a scholar ship.
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Both X1&Y1 and X1&Y2 have high positive correlation, likewiseY1 & Y2 have
positive correlation but they are not directly related, but they are related to each other
via X1.

3.Chance: The correlation that arises by chance is called spurious correlation.

Examples:
 Price of teff in Addis Ababa and grade of students in USA.
 Weight of individuals in Ethiopia and income of individuals in Kenya.

Therefore, while interpreting correlation coefficient, it is necessary to see if there is any likelihood
of any relation ship existing between variables under study.
The correlation coefficient between X and Y denoted by r is given by

rý
õ ( X i  X )(Yi  Y ) and the short cut formula is
õ ( X i  X ) õ (Yi  Y )
2 2

nõ XY  (õ X )( õ Y )
rý
[nõ X 2  (õ X ) 2 ] [nõ Y 2  (õ Y ) 2

rý
õ XY  nXY
[õ X 2  nX 2 ] [õ Y 2  nY 2 ]

Remark: Always this r lies between -1 and 1 inclusively and it is also symmetric.

Interpretation of r
1.Perfect positive linear relationship ( if r ý 1)
2.Some Positive linear relationship ( if r is between 0 and 1)

3.No linear relationship ( if r ý 0)

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4.Some Negative linear relationship ( if r is between -1 and 0)

5.Perfect negative linear relationship ( if r ý 1)

Examples:

1. Calculate the simple correlation between mid semester and final exam scores of 10 students
(both out of 50)

Student Mid Sem.Exam Final Sem.Exam

(X) (Y)
1 31 31
2 23 29
3 41 34
4 32 35
5 29 25
6 33 35
7 28 33
8 31 42
9 31 31
10 33 34
Solution:
n ý 10, X ý 31.2, Y ý 32.9, X 2 ý 973.4, Y 2 ý 1082.4
õ XY ý 10331, õX 2
ý 9920, õY 2
ý 11003

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rý
õ XY  nXY
[õ X 2  nX 2 ] [õ Y 2  nY 2 ]
10331  10(31.2)(32.9)
ý
(9920  10(973.4)) (11003  10(1082.4))
66.2
ý ý 0.363
182.5
This means mid semester exam and final exam scores have a slightly positive correlation.

Exercise The following data were collected from a certain household on the monthly income
(X) and consumption (Y) for the past 10 months. Compute the simple correlation coefficient.

X: 650 654 720 456 536 853 735 650 536 666
Y: 450 523 235 398 500 632 500 635 450 360

 The above formula and procedure is only applicable on quantitative data, but when we have
qualitative data like efficiency, honesty, intelligence, etc we calculate what is called
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient as follows:

7.3.Steps
i. Rank the different items in X and Y.
ii. Find the difference of the ranks in a pair , denote them by Di
iii. Use the following formula

6õ Di
2
rs ý 1 
n(n 2  1)
Where rs ý coefficien t of rank correlatio n
D ý the difference between paired ranks
n ý the number of pairs
Example:

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Aster and Almaz were asked to rank 7 different types of lipsticks, see if there is correlation
between the tests of the ladies.

Lipstick types A B C D E F G
Aster 2 1 4 3 5 7 6
Almaz 1 3 2 4 5 6 7

Solution:
X Y R1-R2
D2
(R1) (R2) (D)
2 1 1 1
1 3 -2 4
4 2 2 4
3 4 -1 1
5 5 0 0
7 6 1 1
6 7 -1 1
Total 12

6õ Di
2
6(12)
 rs ý 1  ý 1  ý 0.786
n(n 2  1) 7(48)

Yes, there is positive correlation.

7.4.Simple Linear Regression
- Simple linear regression refers to the linear relation ship between two variables
- We usually denote the dependent variable by Y and the independent variable by X.
- A simple regression line is the line fitted to the points plotted in the scatter diagram, which
would describe the average relation ship between the two variables. Therefore, to see the
type of relation ship, it is advisable to prepare scatter plot before fitting the model.

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Y ý ñ  òX  
Where:Y ý Dependentvar iable
- The linear model is: X ý independent var iable
ñ ý Re gression cons tan t
ò ý regression slope
 ý randomdisturbance term
Y ~ N (ñ  òX ,  2 )
 ~ N (0,  2 )

- To estimate the parameters ( ñ and ò ) we have several methods:

 The free hand method
 The semi-average method
 The least square method
 The maximum likelihood method
 The method of moments
 Bayesian estimation technique.

- The above model is estimated by: Yˆ ý a  bX

Where a is a constant which gives the value of Y when X=0 .It is called the Y-intercept. b
is a constant indicating the slope of the regression line, and it gives a measure of the change
in Y for a unit change in X. It is also regression coefficient of Y on X.

- a and b are found by minimizing SSE ý õ  ý õ (Yi  Yˆi )

2 2

Where : Yi ý observed value

Yˆi ý estimated value ý a  bX i

And this method is known as OLS (ordinary least square)

- Minimizing SSE ý õ  gives

2

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bý
õ ( X i  X )(Yi  Y ) ý õ XY  nXY
õ ( X i  X )2 õ X 2  nX 2

a ý Y  bX

Example 1: The following data shows the score of 12 students for Accounting and Statistics
examinations.

a) Calculate a simple correlation coefficient

b) Fit a regression equation of Statistics on Accounting using least square estimates.
c) Predict the score of Statistics if the score of accounting is 85.

Accounting Statistics
X2 Y2 XY
X Y

1 74.00 81.00 5476.00 6561.00 5994.00

2 93.00 86.00 8649.00 7396.00 7998.00

3 55.00 67.00 3025.00 4489.00 3685.00

4 41.00 35.00 1681.00 1225.00 1435.00

5 23.00 30.00 529.00 900.00 690.00

6 92.00 100.00 8464.00 10000.00 9200.00

7 64.00 55.00 4096.00 3025.00 3520.00

8 40.00 52.00 1600.00 2704.00 2080.00

9 71.00 76.00 5041.00 5776.00 5396.00

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10 33.00 24.00 1089.00 576.00 792.00

11 30.00 48.00 900.00 2304.00 1440.00

12 71.00 87.00 5041.00 7569.00 6177.00

Total 687.00 741.00 45591.00 52525.00 48407.00

Mean 57.25 61.75

a)

The Coefficient of Correlation (r) has a value of 0.92. This indicates that the two variables are
positively correlated (Y increases as X increases).
b)

where:

 Yˆ ý 7.0194  0.9560 X is the estimated regressionline.

c) Insert X=85 in the estimated regression line.

Yˆ ý 7.0194  0.9560 X
ý 7.0194  0.9560(85) ý 88.28

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Exercise: A car rental agency is interested in studying the relationship between the distance
driven in kilometer (Y) and the maintenance cost for their cars (X in birr). The following
summarized information is given based on samples of size 5.
2
õi ý1 X i ý 147,000,000 õi ý1Yi ý 314
5 5 2

õi ý1 X i ý 23,000 , õi ý1Yi ý 36 , õi ý1 X i Yi ý 212, 000

5 5 5

a) Find the least squares regression equation of Y on X

b) Compute the correlation coefficient and interpret it.
c) Estimate the maintenance cost of a car which has been driven for 6 km

- To know how far the regression equation has been able to explain the variation in Y we use a
2
measure called coefficient of determination ( r )

õ (Yˆ  Y ) 2
i.e r ý 2

õ (Y  Y ) 2
Where r ý the simple correlatio n coefficient.
- r 2 gives the proportion of the variation in Y explained by the regression of Y on X.
- 1  r 2 gives the unexplained proportion and is called coefficient of indetermination.
Example: For the above problem (example 1): r ý 0.9194
 r 2 ý 0.8453  84.53% of the variation in Y is explained and only 15.47% remains
unexplained and it will be accounted by the random term.
o Covariance of X and Y measures the co-variability of X and Y together. It is denoted by

S XY and given by

SX Y ý
õ ( X i  X )(Yi  Y ) ý õ XY  nXY
n 1 n 1

o Next we will see the relation ship between the coefficients.

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2
S S
i. r ý XY  r 2 ý X2 Y 2
S X SY S X SY
bS X rS
ii. rý bý Y
SY SX
o When we fit the regression of X on Y , we interchange X and Y in all formulas, i.e. we
fit

Xˆ ý a1  b1Y

b1 ý
õ XY  nXY
õ Y 2  nY 2
b1SY
a1 ý X  b1Y , rý
SX
Here X is dependent and Y is independent.
7.5.Choice of Dependent and Independent variable

- In correlation analysis there is no need of identifying the dependent and independent

variable, because r is symmetric. But in regression analysis
If bYX is the regression coefficient of Y on X
bXY is the regression coefficient of X on Y

bYX S X bXY SY
Then rý ý  r 2 ý bYX * bXY
SY SX
- Moreover, bYX and bX Y are completely different numerically as well as conceptually.

- Let us consider three cases concerning these coefficients.

1. If the correlation is perfect positive, i.e. r ý 1 then the b values reciprocals of each
other.

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2. If S X ý SY , then irrespective of the value of r the b values are equal, i.e.

r ý bYX ý bXY ( but this is unlikely case)
3. The most important case is when S X  SY and r  1, here the b values are not
equal or reciprocals to each other, but rather the two lines differ , intersecting at the

common point ( X , Y )

 Thus to determine if a regression equation is X on Y or Y on X , we have to use

the formula r 2 ý bYX * bXY
 If r þ [1,1] , then our assumption is correct
 If r ÿ [1,1] , then our assumption is wrong

Example: The regression line between height (X) in inches and weight (Y) in lbs of male
students are:
4Y  15 X  530 ý 0 and
20 X  3Y  975 ý 0
Determine which is regression of Y on X and X on Y

Solution
We will assume one of the equation as regression of X on Y and the other as Y on X and
calculate r

Assume 4Y  15 X  530 ý 0 is regressionof X on Y

20 X  3Y  975 ý 0 is regressionof Y on X
Then write these in the standard form.

530 4 4
4Y  15 X  530 ý 0  X ý  Y  bXY ý
15 15 15
 975 20 20
20 X  3Y  975 ý 0  Y ý  X  bYX ý
3 3 3

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ö 4 öö 20 ö
 r 2 ý bXY * bYX ý ÷ ÷÷ ÷ ý 1.78 þ 1,
ø 15 øø 3 ø
This is impossible (contradiction). Hence our assumption is not correct. Thus
4Y  15 X  530 ý 0 is regressionof Y on X
20 X  3Y  975 ý 0 is regressionof X on Y
To verify:

 530 15 15
4Y  15 X  530 ý 0  Y ý  X  bYX ý
4 4 4
975 3 3
20 X  3Y  975 ý 0  X ý  Y  bXY ý
20 20 20
ö 15 öö 3 ö 9
 r 2 ý bYX * bXY ý ÷ ÷÷ ÷ ý þ 0,1
ø 4 øø 20 ø 16

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