2/28/2024

Lecture 7: Climate Change in

the Context of Bangladesh
PLAN 471: Natural Hazards and Disaster Management

Prepared by:
Meher Afjun Faria
Lecturer, DURP,BUET.

Acknowledgement:
Dr. Ishrat Islam
Professor, DURP, BUET.

2 Climate Change

 Climate change is no longer a theoretical concept.

 Global consensus among scientists, professionals and academics
that certain degree of global climate change has already been
noticed.
 Climate change will have impact on all living being, ecological
system and socio-economic activities.
 Global leadership is an urgent need to take necessary actions.
 Bangladesh is cited as one of the most vulnerable country.

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3 Climate Change

 A planet's climate is decided by

▪ Mass,
▪ Distance from the sun
▪ Composition of its atmosphere
• Atmospheric Composition of Earth
• 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases
• Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%
• Water vapor 0 to 2%

4 Climate Change

 Green House Gases

▪ CO2 and some other minor gases,
• Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of
the earth.
• Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to
space.
• They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from
the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it
would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.
▪ Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature
would be roughly –20°C.

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5 Climate Change

6 Climate Change

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7 Climate Change

8 Global Temperature and Greenhouse Gases

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9 Global Temperature and Greenhouse Gases

 There is a strong correlation between carbon dioxide content in the

atmosphere and temperature.
▪ Temperatures have been less variable during the last 10,000 years.
▪ It is unlikely that global mean temperatures have varied by more than 1°C in
a century during this period.
 Anthropogenic emissions of Green House Gases (GHGs) could bring the
climate to a state where it reverts to the highly unstable climate of the
pre-ice age period.
 Rather than a linear evolution, the climate follows a non-linear path
with sudden and dramatic surprises when GHG levels reach an as-yet
unknown trigger point.

10 Increasing Trend of CO2: The Age of Industrialization

 The rapid
increase in CO2
concentrations
has been
occurring since
the onset of
industrialization.
 Pre-industrial
levels were
about 278ppm.

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11 Global Temperature Increase Predictions

 IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change)

12 Evidence of Glacier Melting

 Glacier National Park in Montana

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=ur4I8tYnxP4

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13 Evidence of Glacier Melting

 https://www.youtube.c
om/watch?v=Dz1A02G
yCm8

14 Impacts of Climate Change

 On current trend, average global temperature could rise by 2-3º C in next 50
years.
▪ Climate change threatens the basic elements of life: access to water, food,
health and use of land and environment.
▪ Melting Glacier: will increase flood risk in wet season and reduce dry-season
water supplies to one sixth of the world’s population, predominantly in the
Indian sub-continent, parts of China, and Andes in South America.
▪ Rising sea level: Tens to hundreds of millions of more people flooded each
year with warming of 3-4º C
▪ Declining crop yield: At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for
moderate temperature rises but then decline with greater amount of
warming.

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15 Impacts of Climate Change

▪ Ocean acidification: due to increase of CO2 level, will have effects on marine
ecosystem and adverse impact on fish stock.
▪ Ecosystem: will particularly vulnerable to climate change. About 15-40% of
species face extinction with 2º C of warming.
▪ Climate change will increase death from malnutrition and heat stress.
Diseases like malaria, dengue will increase.
▪ By the middle of the century, 200 million more people may become
permanently displaced due to sea level rise, flood or drought.

16 Impacts of Climate Change

 Impacts on developing countries
Environmental Impacts Socio-economic resources and sectors
effected
▪ Change in rainfall patterns ▪ Water resources
▪ Increased frequency and severity ▪ Agriculture and forestry
of flood, droughts, storms, heat ▪ Food security
waves ▪ Human health
▪ Changes in growing seasons and ▪ Infrastructure (transport)
regions ▪ Settlements: displacement of
▪ Changes in water quality and inhabitants and loss of livelihood
quantity ▪ Coastal management
▪ Sea level rise ▪ Industry and energy
▪ Glacial melt ▪ Disaster response and recovery Plan

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17 Climate Change and Bangladesh

https://datacommons.org/ranking/Amount_E
 CO2 emission in Bangladesh: 0.5 t/capita missions_CarbonDioxide_PerCapita/Country
/asia?h=country%2FBGD&unit=t

18 Climate Change and Bangladesh

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19 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Even without climate change, Bangladesh is vulnerable due to its

disadvantageous geographic location, flat and low terrain, high density of
population, poverty, poor economy and weak institutional system.
 Climate change would increase the magnitude of vulnerability many fold.
 The poor will suffer most.
 Bangladesh has little scope to respond to climate change.
 Its per capita green house gas emission is one of the lowest in the world.
 It can not offer any appreciable mitigation at the global level.
 Thus Bangladesh has no other option but to consider some adaptation
options.

20 Climate Change and Bangladesh

The overall macroeconomic impact of sea-level rise would amount to
about 30% of current GNP in the coastal zone, which is about 5% of
overall GNP of Bangladesh.

40cm sea level rise will increase the annual number of people affected
by flooding in Asia from 12 million to 94 million, with almost 60% of
these people living in South Asia (including the coastlines of Pakistan,
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh).

1 million people will be directly affected by sea level rise in 2050 in the
region of the Bangladesh Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna mega-delta.

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21 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Temperature: Historical trend of

monthly mean -
▪ No significant change during
January-May.
▪ An increasing trend of 0.005-
0.035˚ C per year during June-
December .
▪ Maximum change is occurring
during November at a rate of
0.035˚ C increase per year.

22 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Rain Fall Trend -

▪ Moderate increases in monsoon
rainfall
▪ Moderate decreases in dry season
rainfall.
▪ Increase in annual mean
precipitation 0.25%
▪ Maximum increase is 0.57% during
September-November season.

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23 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Heat Waves -
 Cold Spells -

24 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Sea Level Rise -

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25 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Soil Salinity -

26 Climate Change and Bangladesh

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27 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 Average increase of temperature: 1.3ºC in 2030; 2.6ºC in 2070

▪ 2030 increase of temp: Winter 1.4ºC and 0.7ºC in monsoon
▪ 2070 increase of temp: Winter 2.1ºC and 1.7ºC in monsoon
 The total annual precipitation would increase.
 Distribution of rainfall would be different for monsoon and winter season.
 Monsoon precipitation would increase significantly, but winter precipitation
would decrease.
 The combination of elevated temperature and decreased rainfall in winter would
cause increased evapotranspiration.
 It would cause salinity intrusion in the coastal areas of the country.

28 Climate Change and Bangladesh

 A higher precipitation in monsoon would cause increased volume of run off

resulting in severe flooding in many parts of the country.
 A combined effect of climate change, confinement of river courses, increase in
river bed elevation due to sedimentation and sea level rise would increase both
the frequency and severity of flood in the country. About 21% of the population
who lives in coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise (Sari, 2008)
 Result of a modelling exercise shows that about 10 % increase in precipitation
would result in 20% increase in inundated area.
 Average evaporation would be almost similar in 2030 and slightly higher in 2075
which would decrease moisture availability in dry months.
 A moderate change is expected by the year 2030 but the changes would be high
by 2075.

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh
 Effect on Water Resources

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh

 Effects on Agriculture
▪ Increase of temperature would have negative impact on food grain production.
For example, it was found in a study that, 10°C increase in maximum
temperature in the ripening stage reduces production of Aman rice by 17.28 tons.
▪ Agriculture contributes will decrease by 2.1% and 3% in years 2050 and 2080.
▪ The employment opportunity in producing rice (Aman and Boro) will reduce by
7% and 10% by the years 2050 and 2080.
▪ Foreign exchange earning from potential Golda area will decrease by 7% and
8% in the same years (IWM, CEGIS, 2007).
▪ Decrease in winter precipitation could increase drought risks and also enhance
the demand for irrigation in the robi season

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh
 Effects on Forestry
▪ Many forest ecosystems in the tropics are becoming increasingly susceptible
to drought and associated changes in fire, pests and diseases.
▪ In Bangladesh, increased salinity or salt water intrusion is likely to
adversely affect the trees of the Sundarbans.
▪ The projected data shows that sea level at Sundarbans may rise up to 15.5
cm by 2050.
▪ 45cm rise in sea level would inundate 75% of the Sundarbans.
▪ Inundation will lead to the disappearance of terrestrial fauna, changes in
composition of aquatic fauna, vegetation loss etc.

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh
 Effects on Human Health

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh
 Effects on Infrastructure
▪ Direct: erosion of the embankment, wearing out of road surface and
material
▪ Indirect: decrease in national fund, use of road and rail infrastructure by
people

 Effects on Settlements
▪ increases the number of people’s displacement from their land due to
riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise
▪ IPCC’s findings show that a 45 cm sea level rise will inundate almost 10.9%
of our land which will make 5.5 million population of our coastal regions
landless.

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Socio-economic Impacts of
Climate Change in Bangladesh

Climate related Critical vulnerable Most impacted sectors

element areas
Temperature rise North-west Agriculture (crop livestock fisheries) Water,
and drought Energy, Health
Sea level rise & Coastal area, Island Agriculture (crop livestock fisheries), Water,
salinity intrusion Human settlement, Energy, Health
Floods Central region, North Agriculture (crop livestock fisheries), Water,
east region, Char Island Human settlement, Energy, Health, Infrastructure
Cyclone and Coastal and marine Life and property, Infrastructure, Human
storm surge zone settlement, Marine fishing
Drainage Coastal area, Urban, Water (Navigation), Agriculture (crop)
congestion South West

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35 Response to Climate Change

 There are two broad types of response options
▪ Mitigation
• Mitigation entails actions that are aimed at preventing or retarding the
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
• Mitigation can only slow down the process but can not prevent the
occurrence.
▪ Adaptation
• It is defined as any adjustmen that can respond to anticipated or actual
consequences associated with climate change.
• Adaptation can reduce the vulnerability to some extent on an individual
level.

36 Response to Climate Change

Sector Risk Impact Response Level of Action

Agriculture Reduce crop yield Climate resilient agriculture Local level
Water Increase salinity Saline resistant agriculture Immediate
Water logging Adaptive water management Mid-term
technology
Infrastructure Vulnerable infrastructure Climate resilient infrastructure

Economy Economic growth Economy tuned to climate Cross thematic

threatened hampered variability
Social Disruption of social Enhance coping mechanism
fabric
Livelihood Threat to livelihood Diversified adaptive livelihood Long-term
sources

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37 Response to Climate Change

 Formulation of Micro-level risk reduction plan: Climate Risk

Reduction Action Plan (CRRAP) at community level.
 Identification of climate-related risks in development plans -
Climate Check Tool
 Social communication of micro level climate risks: to establish a
mechanism that ensures appropriate information flow across the
wide array of stakeholders.
 Capacity building:
▪ Awareness
▪ Orientation
▪ Training
▪ Education

38 Response to Climate Change

 CLIMATE CHECK TOOL

▪ As Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, it is
necessary to incorporate climate change related issues in development process.
▪ Climate resilient development process has not yet been mainstreamed at project
preparation, approval and implementation stages both at national and local
levels.
▪ The Climate Check Tool (CCT) will improve the appraisal process of the planning
commission in order to better check the climate vulnerabilities of projects.
▪ Climate risk screening and assessment tools provide techniques to assess particular
policy, programme and project risks through climate lenses, but may also be used
more generically as structuring tools to raise awareness on key linkages between
climate change, vulnerability and development. Used in that capacity, they may
be applied at all levels of analysis.

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39 Response to Climate Change

 Bangladesh has been responding to climate change concerns since mid-90s.
 National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) was prepared in 2005 and
was updated in 2009.
 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) finalized in
2009 and approved by the government.
 The Nationally Determined Contribution of Bangladesh (NDC -2015)
Submitted
 Inclusion of Climate change adaptation (CCA) in the Seventh Five Year Plan
(2016-2020)
 Approved Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 in 2018
 Formulation and Advancement of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)
Process initiated.
 Recently, the Government has drafted a revised BCCSAP (2022).

40 Response to Climate Change

 NAPA
▪ National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) was prepared in
2005 as response to the decision of United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
▪ Six Sectoral Working Groups (SWG) were involved in preparation and
updating the NAPA:
• Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock;
• Forestry, Biodiversity and Land-use;
• Water, Coastal Areas, Natural Disaster and Health;
• Livelihood, Gender, Local Governance and Food Security;
• Industry and Infrastructure;
• Policies and Institutions

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41 Response to Climate Change

 Updated NAPA
▪ Emphasized on four basic national security issues of Bangladesh – (a) food
security, (b) energy security, (c) water security, and (d) livelihood security
and respect for local community on resource management and extraction.
▪ Provided physical, social, and economic circumstances of Bangladesh with
trend of changes.
▪ Elaborated present policy, planning, institutions and governance regime to
deal with environmental and climate change issues.
▪ Highlighted key climate change related development concern through
analyzing adverse effects of climate change, variability, and extreme
events on biophysical, social, and economic sectors.

42 Response to Climate Change

 Updated NAPA
▪ Identified 38 adaptation measures covering –
• Research and knowledge management
• Agriculture, fisheries and livestock
• Health
• Building climate resilient infrastructure
• Disaster management
• Livelihood
• Biodiversity
• Policy and institutional capacity building

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43 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ 10-year program (2009–2018) designed to build capacity and
resilience to meet climate change-derived challenges.
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Food Security, Social Protection, and Health
• Comprehensive Disaster Management
• Infrastructure
• Research and Knowledge Management
• Mitigation and Low Carbon Development
• Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening
 The updated BCCSAP will consist of eleven thematic areas with
newly included natural resources management, gender and
urban dimension of climate change.

44 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Food Security, Social Protection, and Health
• Increase the resilience of vulnerable groups through development
of community-level adaptation, livelihood diversification, better
access to basic services and social protection (safety net, insurance)
• Develop climate resilient cropping system, fisheries and livestock
systems to ensure local and national food security.
• Implement surveillance systems for existing and new disease risks
and ensure health systems are geared up to meet future
demands.
• Implement drinking water and sanitation programs in areas at
risk.

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45 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Comprehensive Disaster Management
• Strengthen the government capacity and that of civil society
partners and communities to manage natural disaster and ensure
appropriate policies, laws and regulations are in place.
• Strengthen community-based adaptation program.
• Strengthen cyclone, storm surge and flood early warning system.

46 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Infrastructure
• Repair and rehabilitate existing infrastructure (coastal
embankment, river embankment, drainage system etc,)
• Plan, design and construct urgently needed new infrastructure
(cyclone shelter, embankment, drainage, river erosion control
works)
• Undertake strategic planning of future infrastructure needs,
taking into account (a) future patterns of urbanization and (b)
changing hydrology of the country because of climate change.

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47 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Research and Knowledge Management
• Model climate change scenarios for Bangladesh by applying global climate
change models and methodologies at regional and national levels.
• Model the likely hydrological impacts of climate change on the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna system to assess likely future system of discharges
and river levels in order to derive design criteria for flood protection
embankments
• Monitor the impacts of climate change on ecosystem and biodiversity.
• Impacts on macro-economy of Bangladesh and key sectors (e.g. livelihood
and food security and contribute to developing a climate-proof national
development plan.
Continue…….

48 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Research and Knowledge Management
• Research the linkage between (a) climate change, poverty and
vulnerability and (b) climate change , poverty and health in order to
identify possible intervention to increase the resilience of poor and
vulnerable.
• Establish a Centre for research and knowledge Management of Climate
Change to ensure Bangladesh has access to the latest ideas and
technologies from around the world and data is freely available to
researchers.

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49 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Mitigation and Low Carbon Development
• Develop strategic plan to ensure national energy security and lower
greenhouse gas emission.
• Expand the social forestry program on government and community land.
• Expand greenbelt coastal afforestation program with mangrove planting
along shoreline.
• Seek the transfer of updated technology from developed countries to
ensure that we follow a low carbon growth path.
• Review energy and technology policies and incentives and revise these to
promote efficient production, consumption and distribution and use of
energy.

50 Response to Climate Change

 BCCSAP 2009
▪ Six thematic areas -
• Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening
• Review all government policies to ensure that they take full account of climate
change and its impacts.
• Mainstreaming climate change in national, sectoral and spatial development
planning and ensure that impacts on vulnerable group are priorities in plan.
• Build the capacity of key government ministries and agencies to take forward
climate change adaptation.
• Build the capacity of the government to undertake international and regional
negotiations of climate change.
• Build the capacity of the government, civil society and the private sector on carbon
financing to access various global climate fund.
• Build the capacity for education and training of environmental refugees to ease and
facilitate their migration to other countries and integration in new societies.

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51 Response to Climate Change

 National
Adaptation Plan of
Bangladesh (NAP)
2023-2050
▪ The NAP
formulation follows
the NAPA and the
BCCSAP, aiming to
further streamline
and reinforce
adaptation efforts.
▪ Sectors of NAP

52 Response to Climate Change

 Other National Effort –

▪ Enactment of Climate Change Trust Law
▪ Establishment of Climate Change Trust Fund

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53

Thank You, and

The End

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