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Chapter 9 Input Modeling

The document discusses input modeling for simulation. It describes how input models provide data driving forces for simulations and common input models. It outlines four steps to develop useful input models: collecting real data, identifying probability distributions, choosing distribution parameters, and evaluating goodness of fit.

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Tâjkîr Hâsâñ Fâhîm
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© © All Rights Reserved
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11 views

Chapter 9 Input Modeling

The document discusses input modeling for simulation. It describes how input models provide data driving forces for simulations and common input models. It outlines four steps to develop useful input models: collecting real data, identifying probability distributions, choosing distribution parameters, and evaluating goodness of fit.

Uploaded by

Tâjkîr Hâsâñ Fâhîm
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Input modeling

Input models provide the driving force for a


simulation model.
In the simulation of a queueing system, typical
input models are the distributions of time
between arrivals and of service times.
For an inventory system simulation, input
models include the distributions of demand and
of lead time.
For the simulation of a reliability system, the
distribution of time to failure of a component is
an example of an input model.
There are four steps in the development of a
useful model of input data:
1.Collect data from the real system of interest:
This often requires a substantial time and
resource commitment. Unfortunately, in some
situations it is not possible to collect data (for
example, when time is extremely limited, when
the input process does not yet exist, or when
laws or rules prohibit the collection of data).
When data are not available, expert opinion and
knowledge of the process must be used to make
educated guesses.
2.Identify a probability distribution to
represent the input process: When data are
available, this step typically begins with the
development of a frequency distribution, or
histogram, of the data. Given the frequency
distribution and a structural knowledge of the
process, a family of distributions is chosen.
3.Choose parameters that determine a specific
instance of the distribution family: When data
are available, these parameters may be estimated
from the data.
4.Evaluate the chosen distribution and the
associated parameters for goodness of fit:
Goodness of fit may be evaluated informally, via
graphical methods, or formally, via statistical
tests. The chi-square and the Kolmogorov-
Smimov tests are standard goodness-of-fit tests.
If not satisfied that the chosen distribution is a
good approximation of the data, then the analyst
returns to the second step, chooses a different
family of distributions, and repeats the
procedure. If several iterations of this procedure
fail to yield a fit between an assumed
distributional form and the collected data, the
empirical form of the distribution may be used,
GOODNES5-0F·FIT TESTS
Goodness-of-fit tests provide helpful guidance
for evaluating the suitability of a potential input
model; however, there is no single correct
distribution in a real application.
It is especially important to understand the effect
of sample size.
If very little data are available, then a goodness-
of-fit test is unlikely to reject any candidate
distribution; but if a lot of data are available,
then a goodness-of-fit test will likely reject all
candidate distributions.
Therefore, failing to reject a candidate
distribution should be taken as one piece of
evidence in favor of that choice, and rejecting an
input model as only one piece of evidence
against the choice.
Example 9.14:
The number of vehicles arriving at the northwest
corner of an intersection in a 5-minute period
between7:00 A.M. and 7:05 A.M. was monitored for
five workdays over a 20-week period. Table 9.1
shows the resulting data.
Apply appropriate test to these data to test the
hypothesis of the underlying distribution. Use the
level of significance α=0.05.

Example:
Records pertaining to the monthly number of job-
related injuries at an underground coal mine were
being studied by a federal agency. The values for the
past 100 months were as follows:
Injuries per Frequency of
month occurence
0 35
1 40
2 13
3 6
4 4
5 1
6 1

Apply the appropriate test to these data to test the


hypothesis of the underlying distribution. Use the
level of significance α= 0.05

Example9.3: Life tests were performed on a random


sample of electronic components at 1.5 times the
nominal voltage, and their lifetime (or time to
failure), in days, was recorded:
Use appropriate test to test the underlying
distribution of the hypothesis. Use the level of
significance α=.05.

Exercise: Time required for 50 different employees


to compute and record the number of hours worked
during the week was measured, with the following
results in minutes.
1.88 3.53 1.42 0.39 0.80
0.54 0.53 1.28 0.34 5.50
1.90 1.80 0.82 0.01 4.91
0.15 0.79 2.16 0.10 0.35
0.02 0.21 0.05 1.10 0.36
2.81 0.80 0.04 0.24 0.90
1.50 0.26 1.49 0.26 1.03
0.53 0.63 0.66 0.45 1.73
2.62 0.36 2.03 0.17 0.38
2.67 2.03 1.00 4.29 0.48

Use the chi-squared test to test the hypothesis that


these service time are exponentially distributed. Let
the number of class interval be k=6. Use level of
significance α=0.01.
Exercise:

How are the times between requests for service


distributed? Develop and test a suitable model.
Exercise: The highway between Atlanta, Georgia
and Athens, Georgia has a high incidence of
accidents along its 100 kilometers. Public safety
officers say that the occurrence of accidents along
the highway is randomly (uniformly) distributed, but
the news media say otherwise. The Georgia
department of public safety published records for the
month of September. These records indicated the
point at which 30 accidents involving an injury or
death occurred as follows (the data points
representing the distance from the city limits
Atlanta).
Use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to discover
whether the distribution of the location of accidents
is uniformly distributed for the month of September.

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