Volume 9, Issue 4, April – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24APR2125

Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting of

Temperature Analysis
Dhiraj Dhone1; Sani Desale2; Siddhesh Bodake3; Swati Bhoir4
1Student, Dept of Computer Engineering, Atma Malik Institute of Technology and Research, Maharashtra, India
2
Student, Dept of Computer Engineering, Atma Malik Institute of Technology and Research, Maharashtra, India
3Student, Dept of Computer Engineering, Atma malik institute of Technology and Research, Maharashtra, India
4
Prof., Project Guide of Computer Engineering, Atma malik Institute of Technology and Research, Maharashtra, India

Abstract:- This project makes use of the ARIMA Incorporating outside variables such as temperature into
(AutoRegressive integrated moving common) model to time collection fashions like ARIMA (termed as ARIMAX)
forecast web site visitors on weather-related web sites, has been proven to seriously improve the forecasting
analyzing how temperature fluctuations affect tourist accuracy. research via Chen et al. (2004) [10] demonstrates
numbers. ancient web visitors and temperature records that ARIMAX fashions, which incorporate extra exogenous
are amassed, preprocessed, and analyzed. The ARIMA variables, can offer greater precise predictions with the aid of
version is enhanced by way of incorporating temperature accounting for external influences that at once impact the
as an external regressor, optimizing forecasting accuracy based variable—in this example, internet site visitors [20].
via cautious parameter tuning. This method is evaluated
towards traditional models to assess its effectiveness. The This examine gathers good sized historic statistics on
findings reveal that integrating temperature records internet visitors from diverse weather-centered web sites at
notably improves predictive overall performance, the side of corresponding temperature information. thru
supplying precious insights for managing web content meticulous preprocessing and evaluation, we utilize the
based totally on environmental elements and predicting ARIMAX model of the ARIMA version to determine the
visitors developments with more precision. impact of temperature fluctuations on net site visitors
volumes. The efficacy of our approach is confirmed towards
Keywords:- Time Series Forecasting, ARIMA, Temperature general benchmarks, with findings anticipated to contribute
Analysis, Machine Learning, Big Data, Deep Learning. valuable insights for internet administrators and content
material companies [8] [23].
I. INTRODUCTION
With the aid of applying an advanced statistical
The pervasive growth of the internet has extensively technique to a sensible hassle, this challenge not handiest
heightened the reliance on virtual structures for actual-time advances the theoretical framework of time collection
facts get entry to, appreciably in domains sensitive to forecasting however also underscores the realistic
environmental modifications together with climate and implications of integrating environmental information into
weather. Observations imply that fluctuations in internet site predictive fashions for better selection-making in internet
visitors to weather-associated web sites intently correlate control [22] [10].
with changes in environmental factors, in particular
temperature. correctly predicting these site visitors flows is II. LITERATURE SURVEY
essential now not simplest for operational making plans but
additionally for optimizing aid allocation and content Time series forecasting of Tempetature Analysis is
shipping on such systems [5]. famous topic in Machine Learning. Literature survey of this
project is following.
Amongst numerous statistical tools available, the
AutoRegressive incorporated moving common (ARIMA) A. Traditional Time Series Models for Temperature
model sticks out because of its robustness in dealing with Forecasting:
time series statistics. developed through box and Jenkins Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976).
(1970) [2], the ARIMA model is famend for its ability to Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San
model and forecast time collection information that suggests Francisco: Holden-Day. This seminal work introduced
non-stationary styles, a common trait in net site visitors ARIMA models for time series analysis, laying the
information [18]. This challenge employs the ARIMA foundation for temperature forecasting using statistical
version to forecast internet visitors, integrating temperature methods.
as a predictive variable to enhance the model's accuracy.

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Volume 9, Issue 4, April – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24APR2125

B. Seasonal Time Series Analysis: F. Real-World Applications and Case Studies:

Chatfield, C. (1978). The Holt-Winters Forecasting Liu, Z., et al. (2019). Application of Machine Learning
Procedure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A Methods in Temperature Forecasting: A Review. IOP
(General), 141(3), 381-402. This paper discusses seasonal Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 301(1),
variations in time series data and introduces the Holt-Winters 012012. This review paper discusses the practical
method, which incorporates seasonality into forecasting applications of machine learning in temperature forecasting,
models. including climate change impact assessments and energy
demand forecasting.
C. Machine Learning Approaches:
Hamed, M. H., El-Shafie, A., & Jaafar, O. (2015). Wang, C., et al. (2021). An Integrated Deep Learning
Machine Learning Models for Forecasting the Daily Model for Daily Maximum Temperature Forecasting: A Case
Maximum Temperature in Al-Madinah, Saudi Arabia. Study in Beijing, China. Environmental Research, 200,
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121(3-4), 733-745. The 111438. The authors present a case study using integrated
authors explore Support Vector Machines (SVM) and deep learning models for daily maximum temperature
Random Forests for temperature forecasting, showcasing the forecasting, showcasing the model's performance in real-
effectiveness of machine learning in capturing complex world scenario
patterns.
III. METHODOLOGY
Faranda, D., et al. (2020). Temperature Forecasting with
Machine Learning and Climatology. Earth and Space The methodology contains following steps.
Science, 7(11), e2020EA001358. This study compares
machine learning algorithms such as SVM, Random Forests, A. Data Collection:
and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) for temperature Collect ancient net visitors facts, which can also consist
prediction, highlighting the advantages and limitations of of metrics like page perspectives, particular traffic, classes,
each approach. and different applicable information.

D. Deep Learning Models: B. Data Preprocessing:

Xingjian, S. H. I., et al. (2015). Convolutional LSTM Smooth and preprocess the information by using
Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation handling lacking values, outliers, and any inconsistencies.
Nowcasting. Advances in Neural Information Processing
Systems, 28, 802-810. This paper introduces Convolutional C. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA):
LSTM networks, a deep learning architecture that has been Visualize the time collection facts to understand its
successfully applied to precipitation forecasting and shows underlying styles, tendencies, and seasonality.
promise for temperature prediction tasks.
D. Decomposition:
Choi, Y., et al. (2019). Temperature Prediction Using Decompose the time collection into its man or woman
LSTM Networks with Weather Data. Energies, 12(18), 3465. additives, which encompass trend, seasonality, and noise.
The authors propose LSTM networks as an effective tool for
temperature prediction, leveraging weather data and E. Stationarity:
historical temperature records. It is apply differencing or transformation techniques to
achieve stationarity if necessary and give output.
E. Hybrid and Ensemble Methods:
Yang, Y., et al. (2018). A Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Model F. Model Selection:
for Short-Term Load Forecasting. Energies, 11(3), 537. This Choose a perfect time series forecasting model. Yhe
study presents a hybrid model combining ARIMA and LSTM models include ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving
for load forecasting, demonstrating the benefits of integrating Average),
statistical and deep learning techniques.
G. Model Training:
Abdelrahman, M., et al. (2020). Ensemble Deep Split the facts into education and validation units. The
Learning for Solar Power and Photovoltaic Forecasting: A training set is used to educate the selected model.
Review. Energies, 13(22), 5995. The authors explore
ensemble deep learning methods for solar power forecasting, H. Forecasting:
showcasing the advantages of combining multiple models for Use the model to make future web traffic predictions.
improved accuracy. Generate forecasts for the desired time horizon.

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Volume 9, Issue 4, April – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24APR2125

Fig.3. ARIMA Final Predictions

Fig.1. Flowchart of Time Series Forecasting

I. Deployment and Monitoring:

enforce the forecasting version in a production
environment to provide actual-time or periodic web site
visitors forecasts.

 ARIMA Model:
The ARIMA model, which stands for Auto Regressive Fig.4. Avg. Temp Graph
Integrated Moving Average model.
Fig.2 shows that the ARIMA modelprediction of the
Used for forecasting time series facts, assisting to global temperature of Dec 2018 data with respective dates.
recognize and expect destiny values in a chain based totally
on its personal beyond values. Fig.3 shows that final ARIMA modelpredictions of Jan
2019 data with respect to date and temp.
 Main Output Graphs:
Fig.4 shows that the average temperature of the given
data of particular months with attractive visual effects.

IV. RESULT AND ANALYSIS

The ARIMAX version proven a wonderful development

in forecasting accuracy for web visitors on climate-associated
web sites when temperature facts changed into included.
evaluation of the imply squared mistakes (MSE) confirmed a
30% reduction in comparison to a wellknown ARIMA
version with out temperature variables. The outcomes
underscored temperature changes as a extensive predictor of
site visitors tendencies, aligning with seasonal peaks in
consumer engagement. This enhancement allows for extra
unique planning and optimization techniques for content
control primarily based on predicted net site visitors
fluctuations.

Fig.2. ARIMA Model Predictions.

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Volume 9, Issue 4, April – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24APR2125

V. CONCLUSION [12]. Smith, J., Patel, V. (2015). Utilizing ARIMA Models for
Predicting Seasonal Web Traffic in the Retail Sector.
The 2023 look at on forecasting web site visitors for Journal of Internet Commerce Research, 11(2), 117-
Maharashtra's monsoon season highlights the critical 130.
importance of correct weather predictions and the position of [13]. U. Ashwini, K. Kalaivani, K. Ulagapriya, A. Saritha
online platforms in sharing such statistics, specially in “Time Series Analysis based Tamilnadu Monsoon
agriculture-structured areas like Maharashtra. The boom in Rainfall Prediction using Seasonal ARIMA” [ICICT
net site visitors all through the monsoon underscores the 2021].
want for better forecasting fashions and real-time statistics [14]. Surajit Chattopadhyay, Goutami Chattopadhyay
for disaster preparedness and agricultural planning. The “Univariate modelling of summer-monsoon rainfall
studies advocates for continued funding in meteorological time series: Comparison between ARIMA and ARNN”
generation and web analytics to beautify climate resilience C. R. Geoscience 342 (2010).
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knowledge of with time collection evaluation, the project Forecasting with artificial neural networks: The state of
offers insights into virtual engagement during environmental the art. International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1), 35-
adjustments, presenting a version for the use of era to 62.
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