Zifa Wang

Director and Research Professor

Institute of Engineering Mechanics
9 Xuefu Road, Harbin, China, 150080
[email protected]
Research interests: earthquake engineering, earthquake insurance, and information technology

Prof. Luis Esteva has been a long-time friend of China, especially with Institute of Engineering
Mechanics (IEM), China Earthquake Administration. He visited IEM and China in early 1980s
when China was still in its early stage of opening to the outer world. When I visited Mexico in
June, 2004 for his support of China’s bid to host 14WCEE, he instantly supported personally our
proposal. During 13WCEE in Vancouver, Canada, as the President of IAEE, he was instrumental
in organizing the Conference and witnessing China’s successful bid (see picture bid.gif). During
the closing ceremony, he was also congratulatory to China for its bid, and his genuine friendly
altitude toward China has made him largely popular among Chinese researchers on earthquake
engineering (see two attached pictures).

In July, 2005, he visited IEM and China again. His lecture on perform-based earthquake
engineering has helped young researchers in IEM to understand the frontline research results
outside China. His meeting with deputy director general of China Earthquake Administration has
been very helpful for us in soliciting supports for organizing 14WCEE in China.

As the secretary general of Chinese Association of Earthquake Engineering and the director of
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, I look forward to his continuous advice and support in the
future. May health and wealth be with him forever!

Zifa Wang
August 18, 2005
 EARTHQUAKE DISASTER REDUCTION IN CHINA

ABSTRACT

This paper starts with the broad definition of three major areas of work under
China Earthquake Administration for earthquake disaster reduction. The detailed
contents and measures for every task, combining with the introduction to China
Digital Earthquake Observation Network, is then defined and explained. A
mathematical formula, based on economical impact of every factor in earthquake
disaster reduction, is proposed to consider the overall effect of every measure for
earthquake disaster reduction. Finally, comments toward future direction of
earthquake disaster reduction in China are discussed.

Introduction
The first destructive earthquakes since the founding of People’s Republic of China occurred on
March 8, 1966 in Xingtai, Hebei Province, with a magnitude of 6.8 and 7.2. The quakes killed
more than 8,000 people and injured another 38,000. More than 5 million houses collapsed in the
two events. Since then, the government started to realize the impacts of earthquakes, and
subsequently, China Earthquake Administration (CEA, then called State Seismological Bureau)
was established in 1971 to deal with the taunting task of earthquake disaster reduction. Since its
formation, CEA has undergone a series of evolution in its short history. The name has changed
from State Seismological Bureau to China Seismological Bureau in 1998, and finally to China
Earthquake Administration in 2003. The staff team within CEA has grown from a few dozens of
members to over 12,000 full-time members, including over 8,000 technical personnel. Every
province in China has its provincial branch for earthquake administration, and local branches are
also set up under provincial guidance. In addition, there are 5 major research institutes and a
number of other administration institutes within CEA. These institutes, together with provincial
earthquake administration branches, work under CEA as a large composite team for earthquake
disaster reduction in China.

As one of the very few ministry level government agencies worldwide only for earthquake
disaster reduction, CEA’s focus on earthquake disaster reduction in China has gradually evolved
from earthquake observation, monitoring and prediction only to inclusion of preparedness,
prevention measures and the recent expansion to emergency response and management. These
three areas of work form the foundation for the daily administrational work and the project
planning within CEA.

Earthquake observation, monitoring and prediction

Earthquake observation, monitoring and prediction have been one of the top priorities for CEA.
With over 30 years of continuous construction, China now has accumulated a network of over
2,000 seismic observation stations. Another network of earthquake precursory observation is
also built. With these networks in place, China has the monitoring capacity as defined in the
following.

M≥ 4.0 nation wide

M≥ 2.5 50% land areas
M≥ 1.5 provincial capitals and their adjacent areas in the eastern part of China
M≥ 1.0 capital area

On the other hand, earthquake prediction has been one of the unique administration areas in
China. There are basically four different types of predictions as defined in the following.

z Long-term Prediction：a few years to tens of years or longer

z Mid-term Prediction：a few months to a number of years
z Short-term Prediction：a few days to a few months
z Imminent Prediction: within days

Although much progress has been made in earthquake prediction in China, the overall accuracy
of earthquake prediction is still in its infancy stage. The historical successful example of
predicting the Haicheng Earthquake in 1975 was a combination of empirical experiences and
earthquake observation, which is not readily duplicable in other cases. It is said that the success
rate of short-term prediction is close to 37% while it is higher for long-term and mid-term
predictions. It becomes more difficult to predict imminent occurrence of earthquakes. The
current status is that a few types of earthquakes could be predicted under certain conditions, but
the prediction relies more on empirical experience than scientific analysis. Earthquake prediction
is still a global challenge for earthquake scientists.

Earthquake preparedness and prevention measures

Seismic design for structures

Seismic design codes for structures were completed in China as early as 1964. Since then, a
number of improvements have been made, resulting in modified design codes in 1974, 1978,
1989 and 2001. The current seismic design code of buildings is prepared for the purpose of
carrying out the policy of giving priority to the prevention of earthquake disasters so that when
buildings are made earthquake resistant, damage to buildings, loss of life and economic losses
will be minimized. The principles for the design code can be summarized as the following.

When buildings designed based on the code are subjected to the influence of frequently
occurring earthquakes with an intensity of less than the fortification intensity of the region, the
buildings will not be, or will be only slightly damaged and will continue to be serviceable
without repair;
When they are subjected to the influence of earthquakes equal to the fortification intensity of the
region, they may be damaged but will still be serviceable after ordinary repair or without repair;
When they are subjected to the influence of unexpected rare earthquakes with intensity higher
than the fortification intensity of the region, they will neither collapse nor incur damage that
would endanger human lives.
Raising public awareness of earthquake disaster mitigation
Raising public awareness has been proven to be effective in past earthquakes. For example,
during Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake of October 23, 2004, a number of people escaped the disaster
because of prior knowledge on how to respond during an earthquake. This verifies the fact that
public awareness program is effective in reducing especially casualties during an earthquake. In
China, a number of earthquake exhibition halls and special libraries are set up to educate the
public. Outreach programs are sometimes incorporated into extension education for both the
general public and students in classrooms.

Improvement of legislation system

In order to increase the effect of earthquake disaster reduction in China, the People’s Congress of
People’s Republic of China promulgated in 1997 the national Law of the People’s Republic of
China on Protection against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters. This national law supports and
guarantees the works on earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. Based on this law, a
number of local regulations and industry stipulations are also issued to materialize the national
law into engineering practice. Some of the examples include “The Protection Act for Facilities of
Earthquake Monitoring and Environmental Condition of Earthquake Observation(1994)”,
“Emergency Response Act for Destructive Earthquakes(1995)”, and “Stipulations for Issuing
Earthquake Prediction(1998)”.

Another set of result issued as national regulation is the national acceleration zonation map for
China (2000), as shown in figure 1.
 Figure 1 Acceleration zonation map for China (2000) [CEA, 2004].

There are two rules as regard to how to apply the result from this map.
• Ordinary industrial and civil structures can be built in accordance with the above zoning
map
• Key construction projects and lifeline works have to be constructed in line with the
results from dedicated engineering assessment

Retrofitting the existing structures

There are two reasons why there is a need to retrofit existing structures. One is to fix the
weakening of strength due to aging or external damage to the existing structures. Two is to
enhance existing structures to be compatible with new design standards. Up to now, retrofitting
is performed either to mostly on historical monuments and important structures or to damaged
structures during an earthquake. Retrofitting has also been proven to be effective in Taiyuan,
Shanxi province. Before Yanggao Earthquake the city of Taiyuan had been retrofitted with the
aid from a UN fund. There was obviously light damage in the city for the retrofitted structures,
while comparable structures under similar ground motion excitation suffered heavier damage. At
this time, gradual and increasing efforts are put forward by both central and local governments as
well as private enterprises to retrofit vulnerable structures.

Engineering assessment for key projects

The national law described in 3.3 provides the basis for the need to assess earthquake safety for
large and key projects, especially the national key projects such as the Three Gorges Dam and
most of the nuclear power plants. The aim of the project is to determine the ground motion level
at or surround a given project construction site via sophisticated engineering approaches. The
result from this assessment shall be used to design the project accordingly, if it is different from
the zonation map. In a good percentage of the cases where there is a need for sophisticated
engineering assessment it is found that the ground motion level appears to be different from the
zonation map, which stresses the importance of such a complicated study.

Urban Active Faults Detection Projects

Starting from 2003 a new national key project, called China Digital Earthquake Observation
Network, is under way for a 5-year construction. Included in this project are three networks
(seismic observation, precursory, and strong ground motion), three systems (active fault
detection, information, and emergency response and commanding), and a training base for rescue
teams. Active fault detection system tries to identify active faults in almost all the major cities in
China, including the provincial capitals in the country. When the result from this project is
compiled, it will definitely help the preparedness and prevention of earthquake disaster if it
happens.

Earthquake loss estimation

Earthquake loss estimation tries to assess the economical impact of an earthquake disaster should
it happens. The purpose of this field of work is to identify the most vulnerable spots within a city
during an earthquake, and corresponding retrofitting measures are proposed at the same time.
For example, in Daqing city of Heilongjiang province, earthquake loss estimation is performed
for the whole city as well as the surrounding oil fields, and numerous vulnerable spots are
identified for further repair and enhancement. The result can be readily incorporated into city
planning.

Earthquake Emergency Response

Earthquake Emergency Pre-plan

In order to better prepare for emergency during an earthquake, the State Council has set up an
earthquake disaster relief headquarter within CEA. This headquarter will enact during a
destructive earthquake. On April 27, 2001 China International Search and Rescue Team
(CISAR) was established with much fanfare. This team is governed by the relief coordinating
office within CEA, which is under the administration of State Council of China. There are over
200 members in CISAR with the background of engineering, earthquake science and medicine.
CISAR is equipped with advanced tools and communication systems.

Emergency relief and rescue

Ever since its founding, CISAR has played a major role in relief, search and rescue. It was
deployed domestically to Bachu-Jiashi Earthquake and Zhaosu Earthquake in Xinjiang Province.
Internationally it was deployed to Algiers, Iran in 2003 and it was again deployed to Indonesia
after the great Sumatran Earthquake of 2004. The team has won a high fame as a hard working
and reliable search and rescue team at the field, thus earn an excellent reputation both
domestically and internationally.

The mathematical representation of earthquake disaster reduction in China

Around the world there are few countries like China that have coordinated central governmental
efforts in earthquake disaster reduction. There are many reasons to this. One could be that China
has suffered heavily during past earthquakes. In 20th century, around half of the casualties of
earthquakes occurred in China. Over half of the inland earthquakes also occurred within China.
The second reason is that Chinese government places a high priority to the importance of human
life. Therefore, in 2004, a national goal for earthquake disaster reduction in 2020 was issued,
which states “By 2020 China should be resistant nationally to an M6 class earthquake, or to the
current fortification level in design standards. Developed regions and large cities should have
comparable earthquake resistance level comparable moderately developed countries”.
There are at least two problems to this. 1) How to assess the resistance and scientifically define
such a goal? 2) How to get there? The second question can be partially answered if the first
question is clearly answered. Therefore, we will focus on the first one.

In order to assess earthquake resistance, we need a physical parameter that is a complicated

function of many factors. With the existence of such a parameter, the effect of every factor can
be studied independently, thus resulting in the identification of most important affecting factors
in determining earthquake resistance. Economic loss is proposed to be such a parameter because
an earthquake usually only causes damage and loss while creating little benefit. The extent of the
damage can be best expressed by the amount of economic loss of the event. Therefore, the 2020
national goal can be expressed via the following formula.

Minimize: Total_Loss = Property_Loss + Derivative_Loss + Human_Loss + Commercial_Loss

+ Other_Losses
Where
Casualty <= Target_1
Business_Interruption <= Target_2
Property_Loss <= Target_3
Derivative_Loss <= Target_4

From the above, it is clear that if we convert casualty loss into economic loss this becomes a
typical problem in operational research. By studying the amount variation of total loss due to the
change in every domain of work in earthquake disaster reduction, we can assess the effect of
different measures. With such a formula in place, we can at least derive the results for the
following questions.

1) What is the most important affecting factor?

2) What is the most effective measure?
3) Where is the problem?

and many more.

 Conclusion
China, with its ministry level government agency China Earthquake Administration, has put into
a good amount of efforts into earthquake disaster reduction. Earthquake observation, monitoring
and prediction, earthquake preparedness and prevention, and emergency response and rescue are
three areas of work in reducing earthquake disaster in China. A number of measures have been
taken in China to prepare and prevent earthquake should it happens. Furthermore, a national goal
for 2020 has been established requiring extra efforts to realize it. A mathematical formula is
proposed to further study the problem.

At this time, China is planning its 11th 5-year plan for earthquake disaster reduction. A long-term
plan for year 2020 is also simultaneously happening. In the next five years, China will focus on
at least the following areas in order to reduce the impacts of potential destructive earthquakes.

z Earthquake safety for large cities and major metropolitan areas

z Earthquake safety for rural areas
z Emergency response for key infrastructure systems
z Experimental fields in seismically active regions

For further reduction of earthquake disaster in China, both international and domestic help are
needed and a closer international collaboration is expected in the coming years.

References
China Earthquake Administration (2003), annual report (2003)
Wang, Z. (2005), Research Report for 11th 5-yearPlan for Earthquake Disaster Reduction, Recent
Developments in World Seismology, 2005(7), 17-22