LRMC Part - 5

Hypothesis Development
1. Introduction: Hypothesis is usually considered as an
important mechanism in Research. Hypothesis is a tentative
assumption made in order to test its logical or empirical consequences.
If we go by the origin of the word, it is derived from the Greek word-
‘hypotithenai’ meaning ‘to put under’ or to ‘to suppose’. Etymologically
hypothesis is made up of two words, “hypo” and “thesis” which means
less than or less certain than a thesis. It is a presumptive statement of a
proposition or a reasonable guess, based upon the available evidence,
which the researcher seeks to prove through his study. A hypothesis
will give a plausible explanation that will be tested. A hypothesis may
seem contrary to the real situation. It may prove to be correct or
incorrect. Hypothesis need to be clear and precise and capable of being
tested. It is to be limited in scope and consistent with known or
established facts and should be amenable to testing within the
stipulated time. It needs to explain what it claims to explain and should
have empirical reference.

2. Definition:
“A hypothesis can be defined as a tentative explanation of the
research problem, a possible outcome of the research, or an educated
guess about the research outcome.”
Goode and Hatt have defined it as “a proposition which can be
put to test to determine its validity”.
“Hypotheses are single tentative guesses, good hunches
(guess)– assumed for use in devising theory or planning experiments
intended to be given a direct experimental test when possible”
According to Lundberg, “A hypothesis is a tentative generalisation, the
validity of which remains to be tested. In its most elementary stage, the
hypothesis may be any hunch, guess, imaginative idea, which becomes
the basis for action or investigation”.

Hence, a hypothesis is a hunch, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an

idea about a phenomenon, relationship or situation, the reality or truth
of which you do not know. A researcher calls these assumptions/
hunches hypotheses and they become the basis of an enquiry. In most
studies the hypothesis will be based upon your own or someone else’s
observation. Hypothesis brings clarity, specificity and focus to a
research problem, but is not essential for a study. You can conduct a
valid investigation without constructing formal hypothesis.
 The formulation of hypothesis provides a study with focus. It tells you
what specific aspects of a research problem to investigate. A hypothesis
tells you what data to collect and what not to collect, thereby providing
focus to the study. As it provides a focus, the construction of a
hypothesis enhances objectivity in a study. A hypothesis may enable you
to add to the formulation of a theory. It enables you to specifically
conclude what is true or what is false. Ludberg observes, quite often a
research hypothesis is a predictive statement, capable of being tested by
scientific methods, that relates an independent variable to some
dependent variable.

3. Nature of Hypothesis:
The hypothesis is a clear statement of what is intended to be
investigated. It should be specified before research is conducted and
openly stated in reporting the results.
This allows to:
• Identify the research objectives.
• Identify the key abstract concepts involved in the research.
• Identify its relationship to both the problem statement and the
literature review.
• A problem cannot be scientifically solved unless it is reduced to
hypothesis form.
• It is a powerful tool of advancement of knowledge, consistent with
existing knowledge and conducive to further enquiry.
• It can be tested – verifiable or falsifiable.
• Hypotheses are not moral or ethical questions.
• It is neither too specific nor to general.
• It is a prediction of consequences.
• It is considered valuable even if proven false.

4. Importance of Hypothesis: Hypothesis though an

important part of research may not be required in all types of research.
The research which are based on fact finding (historical or descriptive
research) do not need hypothesis. Hillway also says that “When fact-
finding alone is the aim of the study, a hypothesis is not required.5”
Whenever possible, a hypothesis is recommended for all major studies
to explain observed facts, conditions or behaviour and to serve as a
guide in the research process.

o Hypothesis facilitates the extension of knowledge in an area. They

provide tentative explanations of facts and phenomena, and can be
tested and validated. It sensitizes the investigator to certain aspects of
the situations which are relevant from the standpoint of the problem
in hand.
o Hypothesis provide the researcher with rational statements,
consisting of elements expressed in a logical order of relationships
which seeks to describe or to explain conditions or events, that have
yet not been confirmed by facts.
o The hypothesis enables the researcher to relate logically known facts
to intelligent guesses about unknown conditions. It is a guide to the
thinking process and the process of discovery.
o Hypothesis provides direction to the research. It defines what is
relevant and what is irrelevant. The hypothesis tells the researcher
what he needs to do and find out in his study. Thus it prevents the
review of irrelevant literature and provides a basis for selecting the
sample and the research procedure to be used in the study.
o Hypothesis implies the statistical techniques needed in the analysis of
data, and the relationship between the variables to be tested. It also
helps to delimit his study in scope so that it does not become broad or
unwieldy.
o Hypothesis provides the basis for reporting the conclusion of the
study. It serves as a framework for drawing conclusions. In other
word, we can say that it provides the outline for setting conclusions in
a meaningful way.
• So, Hypothesis has a very important place in research although it
occupies a very small place in the body of a thesis.

5. Sources of Hypothesis: A good hypothesis can only be

derived from experience in research. Though hypothesis should precede
the collection of data, but some degree of data collection, literature
review or a pilot study will help in the development and gradual
refinement of the hypothesis. A researcher should have quality of an
alert mind to derive a hypothesis and quality of critical mind of rejecting
faulty hypothesis. The following sources can help the researcher in
coming up with a good hypothesis:
- Review of literature.
- Discussion with the experts in the given field to understand the
problem, its origin and objectives in seeking a solution.
- Intuition of the researcher also sometimes helps in forming a good
hypothesis.
- Previous empirical studies done on the given area.

6. Understanding Types of Hypothesis:

Research Problems are too general by themselves to enable us
to carryout meaningful analysis. They need to be specified in a more
focussed way. Hypotheses are specific statements that relate to the
problem, the answers to which are likely to be yes or no, depending
upon what is uncovered from the research. Examples of Hypothesis
can be:
• Suicide is related to general level of religiosity/secularisation of
society.
• Alienation and political participation are negatively related.

Such statements specify links between different phenomena, in order to

explain different patterns of behaviour that appear to occur. However,
such patterns of association do not necessarily demonstrate that a
causal relationship exists. We cannot for an instance say, ‘socio-
economic deprivation causes suicide.’ If that was the case, then all
those in Britain defined by various yardsticks as living in a state of
relative poverty would inevitably commit suicide. This is very unlikely to
happen.

7.1 Variable
So. to understand the types of hypothesis, we need to understand the
concept of variables first. The variables are empirical properties that
take two or more values or in other words a variable is any entity that
can take on different values. In simple terms, anything that can vary or
that is not constant can be considered a variable. For instance, age can
be considered a variable because age can take different values for
different people or for the same person at different times. Similarly
country can be considered a variable because a person’s country can be
assigned a value.
A variable is a concept or abstract idea that can be described in
measureable terms. In research, this term refers to the measureable
characteristics, qualities, traits, or attributes of a particular individual,
object or situation being studied. Variables differ in many respects,
most notably in the role they are given in our research and in the type
of measures that can be applied to them. The statement of problem
usually provides only general direction for the research study. It does
not include all the specific information. There is some basic terminology
that is extremely important in how we communicate specific information
about research problems and research in general. So, weight, height,
income are all examples of variables.
In Research, there is a need to make a distinction between various
kinds of variables. There are many classifications given for variables. We
will try to understand only the Dependent Variable and Independent
Variable.
 7.1.1 Independent Variables: The variables which are
manipulated or controlled or changed. These are also known as
manipulated variables. Researchers often mistake independent
variable and assume that it is independent of any manipulation. It is
called independent because variable is isolated from any other factor. In
research, we try to determine whether there is a cause and effect
relationship. In fact, when you are looking for some kind of relationship
between variables you are trying to see if the independent variable
causes some kind of change in the other variables, or dependent
variables.

7.1.2 Dependent Variables: Dependent variables are the outcome

variables and are the variables for which we calculate statistics. The
variable which changes on account of independent variable is known as
dependent variable. It is something that depends on other factors. For
example, a test score could be a dependent variable because it could
change depending on several factors such as how much you studied,
how much sleep you got the night before you took the test, or even how
hungry you were when you took it. Usually when you are looking for a
relationship between two things you are trying to find out what makes
the dependent variable change the way it does.

As we have discussed that a variable is an image, perception or concept

that can be measured, hence capable of taking on different values. The
variables that you wish to explain are regarded as dependant variables or
criterion variables. The other variable expected to explain the change in
the dependant variable is referred to as an independent variable or
predictor variable. The dependant variable is the expected outcome of the
independent variable and independent variable produce dependant
variables.

Variables can have three types of relationships among them.

- A positive relationship is one where an increase in one would
lead to increase in the other.
- A negative relationship is one where an increase in one
variable lead to decrease in the other.
- A zero relationship is one which shows no significant
relationship between the two variables.
Once we have understood variables, we can discuss the
various types of hypothesis.
 7.2 The Types of Hypothesis:

7.2.1 Research Hypothesis: The Research Hypothesis

could be understood in terms of Simple Research hypothesis and
Complex Research Hypothesis.
• A simple research hypothesis predicts the relationship between a
single independent variable and a single dependent variable.
• A Complex hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more
independent variables and two or more dependent variables. A
research hypothesis must be stated in a testable form for its proper
evaluation and it should indicate a relationship between variables
in clear, concise and understandable language.

Research Hypothesis are classified as being directional or non-

directional.
• Directional Hypotheses - These are usually derived from theory .They
may imply that the researcher is intellectually committed to a
particular outcome. They specify the expected direction of the
relationship between variables i.e. the researcher predicts not only
the existence of a relationship but also its nature.
• Non-directional Hypotheses - Used when there is little or no theory, or
when findings of previous studies are contradictory. They may imply
impartiality. Do not stipulate the direction of the relationship.

Research Hypothesis are classified as being Associative and causal

Hypotheses:
• Associative Hypotheses -Propose relationships between variables -
when one variable changes, the other changes. Do not indicate cause
and effect.
• Causal Hypothesese- Propose a cause and effect interaction between
two or more variables. The independent variable is manipulated to
cause effect on the dependent variable. The dependent variable is
measured to examine the effect created by the independent variable.
Statistical Hypothesis:
To test whether the data support or refute the research hypothesis, it
needs to be translated into a statistical hypothesis. It is given in
statistical terms. In the context of inferential statistics, it is statement
about one or more parameters that are measures of the population
under study. Inferential statistics is used for drawing conclusions about
population values. To use inferential statistics, we need to translate the
research hypothesis into a testable form, which is called the null
hypothesis. A testable hypothesis contains variables that are
measurable or able to be manipulated. They need to predict a
relationship that can be 'supported' or 'not supported' based on data
collection and analysis.

• Null Hypothesis: These are used when the researcher believes

there is no relationship between two variables or when there is
inadequate theoretical or empirical information to state a research
hypothesis.The null hypothesis represents a theory that has been put
forward, either because it is believed to be true or because it is to be
used as a basis for argument, but has not been proved. Has serious
outcome if incorrect decision is made. Designated by: Ho or Hn.

Null hypotheses can be:

- simple or complex;
- associative or causal.

• The Alternative Hypothesis: The alternative hypothesis is

a statement of what a hypothesis test is set up to establish. Designated
by: H1 or Ha. It is opposite of Null Hypothesis. It is only reached if Ha is
rejected. Frequently “alternative” is actual desired conclusion of the
researcher.
We give special consideration to the null hypothesis. This is due to the
fact that the null hypothesis relates to the statement being tested,
whereas the alternative hypothesis relates to the statement to be
accepted if when the null is rejected. The final conclusion, once the
test has been carried out, is always given in terms of the null
hypothesis. We either 'reject Ho in favour of Ha' or 'do not reject Ho'; we
never conclude 'reject Ha', or even 'accept Ha'. If we conclude 'do not
reject Ho', this does not necessarily mean that the null hypothesis is
true, it only suggests that there is not sufficient evidence against Ho in
favour of Ha; rejecting the null hypothesis then, suggests that the
alternative hypothesis may be true. For example:
 Ha= the males visited cinema more than females.

Ho= the males and females do not differ in respect of the frequency of
seeing cinema.

So, Alternative hypothesis is usually the one which one wishes to

prove and the Null hypothesis is the one which one wishes to
disapprove.

8 Formulating a Hypothesis: There are no precise rules for

formulating hypothesis and deducing consequences but there are some
difficulties that arise in formulating the hypothesis. However, there are
certain necessary conditions that are conducive to their formulation.
They are:
• Richness of background knowledge: In the absence of knowledge
concerning a subject matter, one can make no well founded judgement
of relevant hypothesis. Background knowledge is essential for
perceiving relationships among the variables and to determine what
findings other researchers have reported on the problem under study.
New knowledge, new discoveries and new inventions should always
form continuity with the already existing corpus of knowledge and
therefore it becomes all the more essential to be well versed with the
already existing knowledge.
• Hypothesis can be formulated correctly by persons who have rich
experience and academic background, but they can never be formulated
by those who have poor background knowledge.
• Logical and Scientific approach: Formulation of proper
hypothesis depends on one’s experience and logical insight.
Hypothesis does not have a clear cut and definite theoretical
background. Partly, it is a matter of lifting upon an idea on some
problem and it is not always possible to have complete
information of, and acquaintance with the scientific methods for
formulating hypothesis. This lack of scientific knowledge presents
difficulty in formulation of hypothesis. A researcher may begin a
study by selecting one of the theories in his own area of interest
and deduce a hypothesis from this theory through logic which is
possible only when the researcher has a proper understanding of
the scientific method and has a versatile intellect. At times,
conversations and consultations with colleagues and experts from
different fields are also helpful in formulating important and
useful hypothesis.
 9. Characteristics of A Good Hypothesis: Hulley says a good
hypothesis must be based on a good research question. It should be
simple, specific and stated in advance6. So a hypothesis could be called
as a good hypothesis if it possesses the following characteristics:

• Hypothesis should be simple so that it is easily understood by

everyone.
• Hypothesis should be clear, specific and precise. If the hypothesis is
not clear and precise, the inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken
as reliable.
• Hypothesis should be capable of being tested.
• Hypothesis should state relationship between variables.
• Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts. i.e. it
must be consistent with a substantial body of established facts.
• The hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for
explanation. It must actually explain what it claims to explain.

9. Hypothesis Testing: When the purpose of the research is to test a

research hypothesis, it is termed as hypothesis-testing research. It can
be of experimental design or the non-experimental design. Research in
which the independent variable is manipulated is termed ‘experimental
hypothesis-testing research’ and a research in which an independent
variable is not manipulated is called ‘non-experimental hypothesis
testing research’.

As we have discussed the Null hypothesis (Ho) and Alternative

Hypothesis (Ha) earlier so while testing hypothesis we generally proceed
on the basis of Null hypothesis (Ho), keeping the Alternative hypothesis
in view. We do so because on the assumption that Null hypothesis is
true, one can assign the probabilities to different possible sample
results, but this cannot be done if we proceed with the Alternative
hypothesis. Hence the use of null Hypothesis is quite frequent. While
testing the Hypothesis the following things to be kept in mind:
•
• Level of significance: This is a very important concept in the
context of hypothesis testing. It is always some percentage (usually 5%)
which should be chosen with great care, thought and reason. In case we
take the significance level at 5%, then this implies that Ho will be rejected
when the sampling result (i.e observed evidence) has a less than 0.05
probability of occurring if Ho is true. In other words, the 5% level of
significance means that researcher is willing to take as much as a 5% risk
of rejecting the Null hypothesis when it happens to be true. Thus the
significance level is the maximum value of the probability of rejecting Ho
when it is true and is usually determined in advance before testing the
hypothesis.
 a) The criteria for rejecting the null hypothesis may
differ. Sometimes the Null hypothesis is rejected only when the quantity
of the outcome is so large that the probability of its having occurred by
mere chance is 1 times out of 100. We consider the probability of its
having occurred by chance to be too little and we reject the chance
theory of the Null hypothesis and take the occurrence to be due to
genuine tendency. On the other occasions, we may reject the Null
hypothesis even when the quantity of the reported outcome is likely to
occur by chance 5 times out of 100. Statistically the former is known as
the rejection of Null hypothesis at 0.1 level and the latter is known as
the rejection at 0.5 level. It may be pointed out that if the researcher is
able to reject the Null hypothesis, he cannot directly uphold the
declarative hypothesis. If an outcome is not held to be due to chance, it
does not mean that it is due to the very cause and effect relationship
asserted in the particular declarative statement. It may be due to
something else which the researcher may have failed to control.
b) Declaration rule or test of hypothesis: Given a Null
hypothesis (Ho) and Alternative hypothesis (Ha), we make a rule which
is known as decision rule according to which we accept Ho (i.e reject
Ha)or reject Ho(i.e accept Ha). For instance, if Ho is, that a certain lot is
good (there are very few defective items in it) against Ha that the lot is
not good (there are too many defective items in it), then we must decide
the number of items to be tested and the criterion for accepting or
rejecting the hypothesis. We might test 10 times in the lot and plan our
decision saying that if there are none or only 1 defective item among the
10, we will accept Ho otherwise we will reject Ho (or accept Ha). This
sort of basis is known as decision rule.
c) Two-tailed and one-tailed test: In the context of
hypothesis testing, these two terms are quite important and must be
clearly understood. A two-tailed rejects the Null hypothesis if, say, the
sample mean is significantly higher or lower than the hypothesized
value of the mean of the population. Such a test is appropriate when the
Null hypothesis is some specified value and the Alternative hypothesis is
a value not equal to the specified value of Null hypothesis. In a two-
tailed test, there are two rejection regions, one on each tail of the curve
which can be illustrated as under:
If the significance level is 5% and the two-tailed test is to be applied, the
probability of the rejection area will be 0.005 (equally divided on both
tails of the curve is 0.0025) and that of the acceptance region will be
0.95.
But there are situations when only one-tailed test is considered
appropriate. A one-tailed test would be used when we are to test, say,
whether the population mean is either lower than or higher than some
hypothesized value. We should always remember that accepting Ho, on
the basis of sample information does not constitute the proof that Ho, is
true. We only mean that there is no statistical evidence to reject it.

10. Errors in Testing of Hypothesis: There are basically

two types of errors we make in the context of testing of Hypothesis.
These are called as Type-I error and the Type-II error. In type-I error, we
may reject Null hypothesis when Null hypothesis is true. Type-II error is
when we accept Null hypothesis when the Null Hypothesis is not true.
In other words, Type-I error means rejection of hypothesis which should
have been accepted and Type-II error means accepting the hypothesis
which should have been rejected. Type-I error is denoted by alpha
known as alpha error, also called the level of significance of test and
Type-II error is denoted by beta known as beta error.

Accept Null hypothesis Reject Null hypothesis

Null hypothesis (true) Correct decision Type-I error (alpha
error)
Null hypothesis (false) Type-II error (beta Correct decision
error)

The probability of Type-I error is usually determined in advance and is

understood as the level of significance of testing the hypothesis. If Type-
I error is fixed at 5%, it means that there are about 5 chance in 100 that
we will reject Null hypothesis when Null hypothesis is true. We can
control Type-I error just by fixing at a lower level. For instance, if we fix
it at 1%, we will say that the maximum probability of committing Type-I
error would only be 0.01.
But with the fixed sample size, when we try to reduce Type-I error, the
probability of committing Type-II error increases. Both types of errors
cannot be reduced simultaneously. There is trade off between two types of
errors which means that the probability of making one type error can only
be reduced if we are willing to increase the probability of making the
other type of error. One must set a very high level for Type-I error in one’s
testing technique of a given hypothesis. Hence, in the testing of
hypothesis, one must make all possible efforts to strike an adequate
balance between Type-I and Type-II errors.