MICMAC - PRUEBA PROSPECTIVA Page 1 / 14

Final Micmac report

PRUEBA PROSPECTIVA

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SUMMARY

I. PARTICIPANTS PRESENTATION.....................................................................4
1. List of participants..............................................................................................................................4

2. Participant description.......................................................................................................................4
1. PEREZ DIANA.................................................................................................................................4
2. CUADRADO DIANA......................................................................................................................4
3. LONDOÑO NORLEYDA................................................................................................................4

II. VARIABLES PRESENTATION............................................................................5

1. List of variables...................................................................................................................................5

2. Variable description............................................................................................................................5
1. PERSONAL CALIFICADO (PER CALF).......................................................................................5
2. COMPETENCIA (COMP)...............................................................................................................5
3. FALTA DE MANUALES (FALT MAN)........................................................................................5
4. SECTOR PREFERENCIAL (SEC PREF).......................................................................................5
5. ZONAS VERDES (ZON VERD).....................................................................................................5
6. NORMATIVIDAD (NORM)...........................................................................................................5

III. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES...............................................................6

1. Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI)....................................................................................................6

2. Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MPDI).................................................................................6

IV. THE STUDY RESULTS......................................................................................6

V........................................................................................................................................6
1. Direct influences..................................................................................................................................6
1. MDI characteristics...........................................................................................................................6
2. MDI stability.....................................................................................................................................7
3. MDI row and column sum................................................................................................................7
4. Direct influence/dependence map.....................................................................................................7
5. Direct influence graph.......................................................................................................................7

2. Potential direct influences..................................................................................................................8

1. MPDI Characteristics........................................................................................................................8
2. MPDI stability...................................................................................................................................8
3. MPDI row and column sum..............................................................................................................8
4. Potential direct influence/dependence map.......................................................................................8
5. Potential direct influence graph........................................................................................................9

3. Indirect influences...............................................................................................................................9
1. Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII)..................................................................................................9
2. MII row and column sum..................................................................................................................9
3. Indirect influence/dependence map...................................................................................................9
4. Indirect influence graph..................................................................................................................10

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4. Potential indirect influences.............................................................................................................10

1. Matrix of Potential Indirect Influences (MPII)...............................................................................10
2. MPII row and column sum..............................................................................................................10
3. Potential indirect influence/dependence map..................................................................................10
4. Potential indirect influence graph...................................................................................................10

VI. GENERAL SYNTHESIS...................................................................................11

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I. PARTICIPANTS PRESENTATION
1. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
 PEREZ DIANA
 CUADRADO DIANA
 LONDOÑO NORLEYDA

2. PARTICIPANT DESCRIPTION

1. PEREZ DIANA
Role:
ADMINISTRADORA
Company:
UNIVERSIDAD DEL TOLIMA
Profession:
ESTUDIANTE
Address:
COLEGIO SAN JOSE
Telephone:
1223444
Email:
[email protected]

2. CUADRADO DIANA
Role:
ESTUDIANTE
Company:
UNIVERSIDAD DEL TOLIMA
Profession:
ADMINISTRADORA FINANCIERA
Address:
COLEGIO SAN JOSE
Telephone:
321432423
Email:
[email protected]

3. LONDOÑO NORLEYDA
Role:
ESTUDIANTE
Company:
UNIVERSIDAD DEL TOLIMA
Profession:
ADMINISTRADORA FINANCIERA
Address:
COLEGIO SAN JOSE
Telephone:
123123121
Email:
[email protected]

Micmac – Método actualizado por © Michel Godet. Aplicativo gratuito financiado por el Círculo de Acción Prospectiva (CAP prospectiva) y 3IE
EPITA.
MICMAC - PRUEBA PROSPECTIVA Page 5 / 14

II. VARIABLES PRESENTATION

1. LIST OF VARIABLES
1. PERSONAL CALIFICADO (PER CALF)
2. COMPETENCIA (COMP)
3. FALTA DE MANUALES (FALT MAN)
4. SECTOR PREFERENCIAL (SEC PREF)
5. ZONAS VERDES (ZON VERD)
6. NORMATIVIDAD (NORM)

2. VARIABLE DESCRIPTION

1. PERSONAL CALIFICADO (PER CALF)

Description:
CONOCER LA EFICIENCIA DE LA EMPRESA
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

2. COMPETENCIA (COMP)
Description:
PARA CONOCER POSICIONAMIENTO DE MARCA FRENTE A NUESTROS COMPETIDORES
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

3. FALTA DE MANUALES (FALT MAN)

Description:
CONOCER COMO INTEGRAR LOS PROCEDIMIENTOS EN BUSCA DE LA CALIDAD
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

4. SECTOR PREFERENCIAL (SEC PREF)

Description:
POSIBILIDADES DE CONSEGUIR MÁS CLIENTES
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

5. ZONAS VERDES (ZON VERD)

Description:
BIENESTAR
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

6. NORMATIVIDAD (NORM)
Description:
LEGISLACIÓN EXISTENTE
Theme:
SEPTIMO SEMESTRE

Micmac – Método actualizado por © Michel Godet. Aplicativo gratuito financiado por el Círculo de Acción Prospectiva (CAP prospectiva) y 3IE
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III. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES

1. MATRIX OF DIRECT INFLUENCES (MDI)
The Matrix of Direct Influence (MDI) describes the relations of direct influences between the
variables defining the system.

Influences range from 0 to 3, with the possibility to identify potential influences:

0: No influence
1: Weak
2: Moderate influence
3: Strong influence
P: Potential influences

2. MATRIX OF POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES (MPDI)

The Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MPDI) represents the present and potential influences
and dependences between the variables. It complements the MDI by also considering the foreseeable
future relations.

Influences range from 0 to 3:

0: No influence
1: Weak
2: Moderate influence
3: Strong influence

IV. THE STUDY RESULTS

V.
1. DIRECT INFLUENCES

1. MDI characteristics
This table presents the number of 0,1,2,3,4 of the matrix and shows the rate of filling
calculated as a ratio between the number of MDI values different from 0 and the total number of
elements of the matrix.

INDICATOR VALUE
Matrix size 6
Number of iterations 4
Number of zeros 13
Number of ones 5
Number of twos 6
Number of threes 11
Number of P 1
Total 23
Fillrate 63,88889%

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2. MDI stability
If it were demonstrated that any matrix must converge towards stability at the end of a certain
number of iterations (generally 6 or 7 for a matrix of size 30), it would be interesting to be able to
follow the evolution of this stability during successive multiplications. In the absence of
mathematically established criteria, it was chosen to rely on the number of permutations (bullets
sorting) necessary to each iteration to classify, by influence and dependence, the whole set of the
variables of the MDI matrix.

ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

1 71 % 100 %
2 100 % 100 %
3 100 % 100 %
4 100 % 100 %

3. MDI row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MDI
matrix.

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

ROWS COLUMNS
1 PERSONAL CALIFICADO 9 6
2 COMPETENCIA 9 12
3 FALTA DE MANUALES 13 4
4 SECTOR 4 8
PREFERENCIAL
5 ZONAS VERDES 6 10
6 NORMATIVIDAD 9 10
Totals 50 50
1 : PER CALF
2 : COMP
3 : FALT MAN
4 : SEC PREF
5 : ZON VERD
6 : NORM
© LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC

1 : PER CALF 0 3 1 0 2 3
2 : COMP P 0 0 3 3 3
3 : FALT MAN 3 3 0 2 2 3
4 : SEC PREF 0 2 0 0 2 0
5 : ZON VERD 0 3 0 2 0 1
6 : NORM 3 1 3 1 1 0

4. Direct influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the matrix of direct influences MDI.

5. Direct influence graph

This graph is set starting from the matrix of direct influences MDI.

Micmac – Método actualizado por © Michel Godet. Aplicativo gratuito financiado por el Círculo de Acción Prospectiva (CAP prospectiva) y 3IE
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2. POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES

1. MPDI Characteristics
This table presents the number of 0,1,2,3,4 of the matrix and shows the rate of filling
calculated as a ratio between the number of MPDI values different from 0 and the total number of
elements of the matrix.

INDICATOR VALUE
Matrix size 6
Number of iterations 4
Number of zeros 13
Number of ones 5
Number of twos 6
Number of threes 12
Number of P 0
Total 23
Fillrate 63,88889%

2. MPDI stability
If it were demonstrated that any matrix must converge towards stability at the end of a certain
number of iterations (generally 6 or 7 for a matrix of size 30), it would be interesting to be able to
follow the evolution of this stability during successive multiplications. In the absence of
mathematically established criteria, it was chosen to rely on the number of permutations (bullets
sorting) necessary to each iteration to classify, by influence and dependence, the whole set of the
variables of the MPDI matrix.

ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

1 100 % 100 %
2 86 % 100 %
3 100 % 100 %
4 100 % 100 %

3. MPDI row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MPDI
matrix.

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

ROWS COLUMNS
1 PERSONAL CALIFICADO 9 9
2 COMPETENCIA 12 12
3 FALTA DE MANUALES 13 4
4 SECTOR 4 8
PREFERENCIAL
5 ZONAS VERDES 6 10
6 NORMATIVIDAD 9 10
Totals 50 50

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4. Potential direct influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the matrice of potential direct influences MPDI.

5. Potential direct influence graph

This graph is set starting from the matrice of potential direct influences MPDI.

3. INDIRECT INFLUENCES

1. Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII)

The Matrix of the Indirect Influences (MII) corresponds to the Matrix of the Direct Influences
(MID) enhanced in power, by successive iterations. From this matrix a new classification of the
variables emphasizes the most important variables of the system. Indeed, one detects the hidden
variables, thanks to a program of matrix multiplication applied to an indirect classification. This
program allows studying the diffusion of the impacts by the ways and the loops of feedback, and
consequently to treat on a hierarchical basis the variables: by order of influence, by considering the
number of path and loops of length 1, 2... N generated by each variable; by order of dependence, by
considering the number of paths and loops of length 1, 2... N reaching each variable. Generally, the
classification becomes stable from a multiplication of the order 3, 4 or 5.

Values represent indirect influence rates

2. MII row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MII matrix.

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

ROWS COLUMNS
1 PERSONAL CALIFICADO 37857 19878
2 COMPETENCIA 28095 42456
3 FALTA DE MANUALES 49365 16236
4 SECTOR 12146 35098
PREFERENCIAL
5 ZONAS VERDES 19146 39090
6 NORMATIVIDAD 41295 35146
Totals 50 50
1 : PER CALF

2 : COMP

3 : FALT MAN

4 : SEC PREF

5 : ZON VERD

6 : NORM

© LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC

1 : PER CALF 4110 8621 3387 6984 7838 6917

2 : COMP 2898 6468 2142 5181 5919 5487
3 : FALT MAN 5241 11125 4254 9262 10222 9261
4 : SEC PREF 1272 2654 1128 2334 2558 2200
5 : ZON VERD 2094 4403 1794 3586 3896 3373
6 : NORM 4263 9185 3531 7751 8657 7908

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3. Indirect influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the indirect influence matrix MII.

4. Indirect influence graph

This graph is set starting from the indirect influence matrix MII.w

4. POTENTIAL INDIRECT INFLUENCES

1. Matrix of Potential Indirect Influences (MPII)

The Matrix of the Potential Indirect Influences (MPII) corresponds to the Matrix of the Potential
Direct Influences (MIDP) enhanced in power, by successive iterations. From this matrix, a new
classification of the variables emphasizes the potentially most important variables of the system

Values represent potential indirect influence rates

2. MPII row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MIIP
matrix.

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

ROWS COLUMNS
1 PERSONAL CALIFICADO 54972 48879
2 COMPETENCIA 57399 62262
3 FALTA DE MANUALES 70950 24513
4 SECTOR 20510 46510
PREFERENCIAL
5 ZONAS VERDES 31044 55824
6 NORMATIVIDAD 56835 53722
Totals 50 50
1 : PER CALF

2 : COMP

3 : FALT MAN

4 : SEC PREF

5 : ZON VERD

6 : NORM

© LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC

1 : PER CALF 8985 12086 4743 8496 10586 10076

2 : COMP 9891 11856 4509 9465 10929 10749
3 : FALT MAN 11874 15184 5958 11314 13546 13074
4 : SEC PREF 3426 4376 1806 3234 3962 3706
5 : ZON VERD 4941 7022 2763 4720 5954 5644
6 : NORM 9762 11738 4734 9281 10847 10473

3. Potential indirect influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the potential indirect influences matrix MIIP.

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4. Potential indirect influence graph

This graph is set starting from the potential indirect influences matrix MIIP.

VI. GENERAL SYNTHESIS

EL DOMINGO 28 EN LAS INSTALACIONES DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL TOLIMA HEMOS
APRENDIDO EL MANEJO DEL APLICATIVO MIC MAC

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Micmac – Método actualizado por © Michel Godet. Aplicativo gratuito financiado por el Círculo de Acción Prospectiva (CAP prospectiva) y 3IE
EPITA.