Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024

Prakash Math-Tutor II PU mathematics

Probability
Conditional Probability: Soln: The sample space of the experiment is
The conditional probability of E given that 𝑆 = { 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇 }
F has already occurred is denoted by P(E|F) (i) 𝐸 = { 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻 } ; 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻 }
and is given by ∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻 }
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐸∩𝐹 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 2
𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 2 = 1.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐹
=
𝑛(𝐸∩𝐹) (ii) = { 𝐻𝐻 } , 𝐹 = { 𝑇𝑇 } ; 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = ∅
𝑛(𝐹) 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 0
𝑛(𝐸∩𝐹) ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 1 = 0.
𝑛(𝑠)
= 𝑛(𝐹) 3. Mother , father and son line up random for
𝑛(𝑠) a family picture, E: son on one end .
𝑷(𝑬∩𝑭)
𝑷(𝑬|𝑭) = 𝑷(𝑭)
................................ (1) F: father in middle.
Note that (1) is valid only when P(F) ≠ 0 i.e.,F ≠ 0. Find 𝑷(𝑬|𝑭).
Thus, we can define the conditional Soln: The sample space is
probability as follows: 𝑆 = { 𝑀𝐹𝑆, 𝑀𝑆𝐹, 𝐹𝑀𝑆, 𝐹𝑆𝑀, 𝑆𝑀𝐹, 𝑆𝐹𝑀 }
Defn: “If E and F are two events associated with Then 𝐸 = { 𝑀𝐹𝑆, 𝐹𝑀𝑆, 𝑆𝑀𝐹, 𝑆𝐹𝑀 }
the same sample space of a random experiment, and 𝐹 = { 𝑀𝐹𝑆, 𝑆𝐹𝑀 }
the conditional probability of the event E given ∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 𝑀𝐹𝑆, 𝑆𝐹𝑀 }
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 2
that F has already occurred , i.e., P(E|F) is ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 2 = 1.
given by 4. Ten cards numberd 1 to 10 are placed in a
𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹)
𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) =
𝑃(𝐹)
, provided P(F) ≠ 0 . box, mixed up thoroughly and then one
PROBLEMS: card is drawn randomly. If it is known
7 9 4 that the number on the drawn card is
I.1. If (𝐴) = 13 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 13 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 13 ,
more than 3, what is the probability that
evaluate 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) . it is an even number?
2. Given that events E and F are such that Soln: The sample space is
(𝐸) = 0.6 , 𝑃(𝐹) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 0.2 , find 𝑆 = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 }
𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) and 𝑃(𝐹|𝐸) . Let 𝐸: number on the card more than 3.
3. Compute 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵), if 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5 and 𝐹: number on the card is even.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.32 . ∴ 𝐸 = { 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 } and 𝐹 = { 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 }
4. If (𝐴) = 0.8 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5 and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 0.4 , ∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 4, 6, 8, 10 }
find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) , 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵). 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 4
5 ∴ 𝑃(𝐹|𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸) = 7 .
5. Evaluate 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵), if 2𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 13 and
2
5. In a school, there are 1000 students , out
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 5 . of which 430 are girls . It is known that
6 5
6. If (𝐴) = 11 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 11 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 11 , find
7 out of 430, 10% of the girls study in class
XII. What is the probability that a student
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) , 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
chosen randomly studies in class XII,
II. 1. A family has two children. What is the
given
probability that both the children are
that the chosen student is a girl?
boys given that atleast one of them is a
Soln: Let 𝐸: student studies in class XII
boy?
𝐹: the student is a girl.
Soln: Let 𝑏 stand for boy and 𝑔 for girl.
∴ 𝑛(𝐹) = 430 and 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 10% of 430
The sample space of the experiment is
= 43.
𝑆 = {(𝑏, 𝑏), (𝑔, 𝑏), (𝑏, 𝑔), (𝑔, 𝑔)} 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 43 1
Let 𝐸: ‘ Both the children are boys ’ ∴ 𝑃(𝐹|𝐸) = = = .
𝑛(𝐸) 430 10
𝐹: ‘ Atleast one of the child is a boy ’ 6. A coin is tossed three times, where
Then 𝐸 = {(𝑏, 𝑏)} and 𝐹 = {(𝑏, 𝑏), (𝑔, 𝑏), (𝑏, 𝑔)} (i) E: head on third toss,
Now, 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {(𝑏, 𝑏)} F: heads on first two tosses
3 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐹) = 4 and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 4 (ii) E: at least two heads ,
𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 1⁄ 1 F: at most two heads.
Hence, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹)
=34= . (iii) E: at most two tails , F: at least one
⁄4 3
2. Two coins are tossed once, where tail. Find 𝑷(𝑬|𝑭).
Soln: The sample space of the experiment is
(i) E: Tail appears on one coin
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇 }
F: One coin shows head (i) 𝐸 = { 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻 }
(ii) E: no tail appears and 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇 } ; ∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝐻 }
F: no head appears. 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = .
Find 𝑷(𝑬|𝑭). 𝑃(𝐹) 2

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
(ii) 𝐸 = { 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻 } 𝐹 ∶ atleast one is a girl
and 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇 } Then 𝑛(𝐹) = 3 and 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 1
∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻 } 𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = .
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 3 𝑃(𝐹) 3
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 7 .
11. An instructor has a question bank
(iii) 𝐸 = { 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻 } consisting of 300 easy true/false questions,
and 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇 } 200 difficult true/false questions, 500 easy
∴ 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻 } multiple choice questions and 400 difficult
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 6
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 7 . multiple choice questions. If a question is
selected at random from the question bank,
7. A die is thrown three times. Events A
what is the probability that it will be an easy
and B are defined as below:
question given that it is a multiple choice
A: 4 on the third throw.
question ?
B: 6 on the first and 5 on the second
Soln: Let 𝐸 ∶ it is an easy question
throw. Find the probability of A given
𝐹 ∶ it is a multiple choice question
that B has already occurred.
Then 𝑛(𝐹) = 500 + 400 = 900
Soln: Clearly 𝑛(𝑆) = 63 = 216 , 𝑛(𝐹) = 6 .
and 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 500
And 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {6, 5, 4} 𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 500 5
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) =
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 )
=
1
. ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = = .
𝑃(𝐹) 900 9
𝑃(𝐹) 6
8. A die is thrown twice and the sum of 12. Given that two numbers appearing on
the numbers appearing is observed to be throwing two dice are different. Find the
6. What is the conditional probability probability of the event the sum of the
that the number 4 has appeared at least numbers on the dice is 4.
once? Soln: Clearly 𝑛(𝑆) = 36
Soln: Clearly 𝑛(𝑆) = 62 = 36. Let 𝐸 ∶ sum of the dice on the dice is 4
Let 𝐸: number 4 appears atleast once. 𝐹 ∶ numbers appearing on two dice
𝐹: the sum of the numbers is 6. are different
Then 𝐹 = {(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)} Then 𝑛(𝐹) = 30 , 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 2
i.e., 𝑛(𝐹) = 5. 𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 2 1
And 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {(2,4), (4,2)} ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = = .
𝑃(𝐹) 30 15
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 2
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = . 13. Consider an experiment of throwing a
𝑃(𝐹) 5
die, if a multiple of 3 comes up throw the die
9. A black and a red dice are rolled.
again and if any number comes, toss a coin.
(a) Find the conditional probability of
Find the conditional probability of the event
obtaining a sum greater than 9, given
‘the coin shows a tail’, given that at least
that the black die resulted in a 5.
one die shows a 3.
(b) Find the conditional probability of
Soln: The sample space of the experiment is
obtaining the sum 8, given that the
𝑆 = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (6, 1),
red die resulted in a number less
(6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6), (1, 𝐻), (2, 𝐻),
than 4.
(1, 𝑇), (2, 𝐻), (2, 𝑇), (4, 𝐻), (4, 𝑇), (5, 𝐻), (5, 𝑇)}
Soln: Clearly 𝑛(𝑆) = 62 = 36.
Let 𝐸 ∶ the coin shows a tail
Let 𝐸 ∶ Obtaining a sum greater than 9.
𝐹 ∶ at least one die shows a 3
𝐹 ∶ Getting 5 on the black (first) die.
Then 𝑛(𝐹) = 7 and 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 0
Then 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = { (5,5), (5,6)} and 𝑛(𝐹) = 6. 𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 0
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) =
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) 2 1
= = . ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = =0.
𝑃(𝐹) 6 3 𝑃(𝐹) 7
10. Assume that each born child is equally 14. 𝑨 and 𝑩 are two events such that
likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family 𝑷(𝑨) ≠ 𝟎 . Find (𝑩|𝑨) , if (i) 𝑨 is a subset of 𝑩
has two children , what is the (ii) 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝝓 .
conditional probability that both are Soln:
girls given that (i) Given that 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 ⇒ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐴
(i) the youngest is a girl. ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
(ii) at least one is a girl. ∴ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
=
𝑃(𝐴)
=1.
Soln: The sample space of the experiment is 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑆 = { 𝐵𝑏, 𝐵𝑔, 𝐺𝑏, 𝐺𝑔 } (ii) And 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0
(i) Let 𝐸 ∶ both the children are girls ∴ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = = =0.
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)
𝐹 ∶ youngest is a girl
15. A couple has two children. (i) Find the
Then 𝑛(𝐹) = 2 and 𝑛(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 1
𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 1 probability that both both the children are
∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = = . boys if it is known that atleast one of the
𝑃(𝐹) 2
(ii) 𝐸 ∶ both the children are girls children is a boy. (ii) Find the probability

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
that both children are girls if it is known individual entries of the determinant are
that the elder child is a girl. chosen independently).
Soln: Let , 𝐺 be the elder boy and elder girl Soln: The probability of each entry of the
and 𝑏 , 𝑔 be the younger boy and the younger 1
determinant = .
2
girl respectively.
The possible determinants whose values are
∴ Sample Space 𝑆 = {𝐵𝑏, 𝐵𝑔, 𝐺𝑏, 𝐺𝑔} 1 0 1 0 1 1
∴ 𝑛(𝑆) = 4 . positive , are | | , | | ,| | . i.e.,
0 1 1 1 0 1
(i) Let 𝐸 ∶ ‘both the children are boys’ determinants are 3 in numbers.
𝐹 ∶ ‘atleast one of the children is a boy’ 1 1 1 1 3
∴ Required Probability = 3 (2 × 2 × 2 × 2) = 16 .
3 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐹) = and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 1
4 4 ( ∵ number of entries = 4 , each probability = )
∴ Required probability = 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) 2
𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 1 19. In a girls hostel 𝟔𝟎% of the students read
= 𝑃(𝐹) = 3 . Hindi newspaper 𝟒𝟎% read English
(ii) Let 𝐸 ∶ ‘both the children are girls’ newspaper and 𝟐𝟎% read both Hindi and
𝐹 ∶ ‘elder child is a girl’ English newspapers. A student is selected at
2 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐹) = 4 = 2 and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 4 .
1 random.
∴ Required probability = 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) (a) Find the probability that she reads
𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) neither Hindi nor English newspaper.
= 𝑃(𝐹) (b) If she reads Hindi newspaper , find the
= .
1 probability that she reads English
2 newspaper.
16. If a leap year is selected at random, what
(c) If she reads English newspaper, find the
is the chance that it will contain 𝟓𝟑
probability she read Hindi newspaper.
Tuesdays?
Soln: Let 𝐻 ∶ a student reading Hindi newspaper
Soln: In the leap year , number of days = 366
𝐸 ∶ a student reading English newspaper
⇒ 52 weeks and 2 days. 40 2 60 3
In 52 weeks there are 52 Tuesdays , and 2 days Here 𝑃(𝐸) = = , 𝑃(𝐻) = =
100 5 100 5
20 1
which can be and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐻) = = .
100 5
(i) Sunday and Monday
Properties of Conditional Probability :
(ii) Monday and Tuesday
1) Let 𝑭 be an event of sample space 𝑺 of an
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
experiment. Then 𝑷(𝑺|𝑭) = 𝑷(𝑭|𝑭) = 𝟏
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday 𝑃(𝑆∩𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹)
(v) Thursday and Friday Proof: 𝑃(𝑆|𝐹) = = =1.
𝑃(𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹)
(vi) Friday and Saturday 𝑃(𝐹∩𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹)
(vii) Saturday and Sunday. 𝑃(𝐹|𝐹) = = =1.
𝑃(𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹)
Out of these seven possibilities , only (ii) and (iii) 2) If 𝑨 and 𝑩 are any two events of a sample
possibilities are favorable to the event “53 space 𝑺 and 𝑭 is an event of 𝑺 such that
Tuesday” . 𝑷(𝑭) ≠ 𝟎 then
2 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 |𝑭) = 𝑷(𝑨|𝑭) + 𝑷(𝑩|𝑭) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 |𝑭)
∴ Required probability = .
7 Proof :
𝟏𝟕. An electronic assembly consists of two 𝑃((𝐴∪𝐵)∩𝐹)
systems say 𝑨 and 𝑩. From previous testing 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 |𝐹) =
𝑃(𝐹)
procedures, the following probabilities are
assumed to be known: (𝑨 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔 ) = 𝟎. 𝟐 ; 𝑃[(𝐴∩𝐹)∪(𝐵∩𝐹)]
=
𝑷(𝑩 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔 𝒂𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒆) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓 ; 𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔) = 𝑃(𝐹)
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓 . Evaluate the following problems (i) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐹)+𝑃(𝐵∩𝐹)−𝑃[(𝐴∩𝐹)∪(𝐵∩𝐹)]
𝑷(𝑨 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔 |𝑩 𝒉𝒂𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒅) (ii) (𝑨 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔 𝒂𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒆) . =
𝑃(𝐹)
Soln: 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐹) 𝑃(𝐵∩𝐹) 𝑃[(𝐴∪𝐵)∩𝐹]
𝑃(both 𝐴 and 𝐵 fa ils) = + –
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 fails |𝐵 has failed) = 𝑃(𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹) 𝑃(𝐹)
𝑃(𝐵 has failed)
= 𝑃(𝐴|𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 |𝐹).
0.15
= =1 . Note : If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two disjoint events then,
0.15
(ii) 𝑃(𝐴 fails alone) = 𝑃(𝐴 fails) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 |𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐹)
𝑃(both 𝐴 and 𝐵 fails) 3) If 𝑬 and 𝑭 are events of a sample space 𝑺,
= 0.12 − 0.15 = 0.05 . then 𝑷(𝑬′ |𝑭) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑬|𝑭) .
Proof: We have 𝑃(𝑆|𝐹) = 1
18. If each element of a second order ∴ 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐸 ′ |𝐹) = 1
determinant is either zero or one, what is ∴ 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ |𝐹) = 1
the probability that the value of the ∴ 𝑃(𝐸 ′ |𝐹) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) .
determinant is positive? (Assume that the
Problem:

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
∎. A fair die is rolled. Consider 𝐸 = {1, 3, 5} , Next, if 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events, then
𝐹 = {2 , 3} and = {2, 3, 4, 5} . Find (i) 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) 𝑃(𝐸𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹|𝐸)
(ii) 𝑃(𝐹|𝐹) (iii) 𝑃(𝐸|𝐺) , 𝑃(𝐺|𝐸) ⇒ 𝑃(𝐸𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹) .
(iv) (𝐸 ∪ 𝐺 |𝐺) , 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐺 |𝐺) . Problems :
3
Multiplication Rule of Probability: 1. Let 𝐸 and 𝐹 be two events with 𝑃(𝐸) = ,
5
3 1
Let 𝑬 and 𝑭 be two events of the same 𝑃(𝐹) = , 𝑃(𝐸𝐹) = . Are 𝐸 and 𝐹 independent?
10 5
sample space, then (𝑬𝑭) = 𝑷(𝑬) ∙ 𝑷(𝑭|𝑬) . 3 1
2. If 𝑃(𝐴) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 5 , find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) , if 𝐴 and
Problems : 𝐵 are independent events.
1. An urn contains 𝟏𝟎 black and 𝟓 white 3. Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be independent events with (𝐴) =
balls. Two balls drawn from the urn one after 0.3 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.4 . Find (𝑖) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) , (𝑖𝑖) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) ,
the other without replacement. What is the (𝑖𝑖𝑖) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) , (𝑖𝑣) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) .
probability that both drawn balls are black? 4. Given that the events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that
1 3
Soln: Let 𝐵1 ∶ first drawn ball is black. 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 5 , (𝐵) = 𝑝 . Find , if they
𝐵2 ∶ second drawn ball is black. are (i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent.
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐵1 𝐵2 ) 5. A fair coin and unbiased die is tossed.
= 𝑃(𝐵1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝐵1 ) Let 𝐴 ∶ head appears on the coin
10 9 3
= ∙ = . 𝐵 ∶ 3 on the die.
15 14 7
2. Two cards are drawn at random and Check whether 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events
without replacement from a pack of 𝟓𝟐 or not .
playing cards . Find the probability that both Soln: Here (𝑆) = 12 , 𝑛(𝐴) = 6 , 𝑛(𝐵) = 2
6 1 2 1
the cards are black. ∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = = and 𝑃(𝐵) = = .
12 2 12 6
Soln: Let 𝐵1 ∶ first drawn card is black. 1
𝐵2 ∶ second drawn card is black. And 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = .
12
1 1 1
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐵1 𝐵2 ) Clearly, 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) = ∙ = = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) .
2 6 12
= 𝑃(𝐵1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝐵1 )
26 25 25 ∴ 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events.
∙ = = 102 . 6. An unbiased die is thrown twice.
51 52
3.Three cards are drawn successively Let 𝐴 ∶ odd number on first throw
without replacement from the pack of 𝟓𝟐 𝐵 ∶ odd number on second throw
well-shuffled playing cards . What is the Check the independence of events 𝐴 and .
probability that first two cards are kings and 7. A die marked 1, 2 , 3 in red and 4 , 5 , 6 in
third card is ace? green , is thrown.
Soln: Let 𝐾1 ∶ first drawn card is king card Let 𝐴 ∶ the number is even.
𝐾2 ∶ second drawn card is king card 𝐵 ∶ the number is red.
𝐴3 ∶ third drawn card is an ace card Are 𝐴 and 𝐵 independent?
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐾1 𝐾2 𝐴3 ) 8. A die is thrown. If 𝐸 ∶ the number appearing
= 𝑃(𝐾1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐾2 |𝐾1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐾1 𝐾2) is a multiple of 3 , 𝐹 ∶ the number appearing is
=
4
×
3
×
4
=
2
. even. Then , find whether 𝐸 and 𝐹 are
52 51 50 5525 independent.
4. A box of oranges is inspected by 9. Three coins are tossed simultaneously.
examining three randomly selected oranges Consider 𝐸 ∶ 3 heads or 3 tails , 𝐹 ∶ atleast 2
drawn without replacement. If all three heads , 𝐺 ∶ atmost 2 heads . Of the pairs (𝐸, 𝐹) ,
oranges are good, the box is approved for (𝐹, 𝐺) and (𝐸, 𝐺) , which are independent and
sale otherwise it is rejected. Find the dependent?
probability that a box containing 𝟏𝟓 oranges Standard Results on Independent Events:
out of which 𝟏𝟐 are good and 𝟑 are bad ones Result 1 : If 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events,
will be approved for sale. then so are 𝐸 and 𝐹′ .
Soln: Let 𝐺1 ∶ first drawn orange is good Proof :
𝐺2 ∶ second drawn orange is good We know that 𝐸 = (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) ∪ (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
𝐺3 ∶ third drawn orange is good ∴ 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) + 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) , as 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹′ and 𝐸 ∩
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐺1 𝐺2 𝐺3 ) 𝐹 are disjoint.
= 𝑃(𝐺1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐺2 |𝐺1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐺3 |𝐺1 𝐺2 ) ∴ 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝐸) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
12 11 10 44
= × × = . = 𝑃(𝐸) − 𝑃(𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹)
15 14 13 91
= 𝑃(𝐸)[1 − 𝑃(𝐹)]
Independent Events :
= 𝑃(𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹 ′ )
Two events 𝐸 and 𝐹 are said to be independent,
∴ 𝐸 and 𝐹′ are independent .
if the probability of occurrence of one event is
Note : If 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events, then
not affected by occurrence of the other event.
𝐸′ and 𝐹 , 𝐸′ and 𝐹′ are also independent.
i.e., 𝑃(𝐸|𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) or 𝑃(𝐹|𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐹) .

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
Result 2 : If 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events, Soln: Let 𝐴 ∶ problem is solved by 𝐴
then the probability of occurrence of atleast one 𝐵 ∶ problem is solved by 𝐵 .
of 𝐸 and 𝐹 is given by 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹 ′ ) . (i) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
Proof : 𝑃(𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) 1 1
= + − 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) 2 3
5 1 1
= 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹) = − ∙
6 2 3
= 𝑃(𝐸) + [1 − 𝑃(𝐸)] 𝑃(𝐹) 5 1 4 2
= – = =
= 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹) 6 6 6 3
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹) (ii) 𝑃(𝐴𝐵 𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝐵
′ ′)
= 𝑃(𝐴𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴′ 𝐵) ′)

= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ′ )[1 − 𝑃(𝐹 ′ )] = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵′ ) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)

= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹 ′ ) . = 𝑃(𝐴)[1 − 𝑃(𝐵)] + [1 − 𝑃(𝐴)] ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
1
Problems : =2.
1
1. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 4 , 8. One card is drawn at random from a well
𝑃(𝐵) =
1
and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = . Find
1 shuffled deck of 𝟓𝟐 card. In which of the
2 8 following cases , the events 𝑬 and 𝑭 are
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝐵) independent?
1
2. Events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , (i) 𝑬 ∶ ‘the card drawn is a spade’
7 1
𝑃(𝐵) = 12 , 𝑃(𝐴′ 𝑜𝑟 𝐵′ ) = 4 . State whether 𝐴 and 𝐵 𝑭 ∶ ‘the card drawn is an ace’
(ii) 𝑬 ∶ ‘the card drawn is black’
are independent.
𝑭 ∶ ‘the card drawn is king’
3. Given two independent events 𝐴 and 𝐵 such
that (𝐴) = 0.3 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6. Find (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) , (iii) 𝑬 ∶ ‘the card drawn is a king or queen’
𝑭 ∶ ‘the card drawn is a queen or jack’.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) , 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝐵) , 𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝐵) .
Soln:
4. A die is tossed thrice. Find the probability
of getting an odd number atleast once. (iii) 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛)
4 4 8
Soln: Let 𝐸 ∶ getting even number = 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) + 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 52 + 52 = 52
Required Probability = 𝑃(𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) 𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) + 𝑃(𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸𝐸𝐸) 4 4 8
= + = .
3 3 3 1 7 52 52 52
= 1− 6 × 6 × 6 =1− 8 = 8 . Now 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ∶ card is queen
5. Find the probability of obtaining an even ∴ 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 52 .
4

prime number on each die when a pair dice 8 8

is rolled? Clearly 𝑃(𝐸) × 𝑃(𝐹) = × ≠ 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) .
52 52
Soln: ∴ 𝐸 and 𝐹 are not independent.
Required Probability = 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑒) 9. 𝑨 and 𝑩 throw a die alternatively till one
1
= 𝑃({(2, 2)}) = . of them gets a ‘𝟔’ and wins the game. Find
36
6. Two balls are drawn at random with their respective probabilities of winning , if 𝑨
replacement from a box containing 𝟏𝟎 black starts first.
and 𝟖 red balls. Find the probability that, Soln:
(i) both balls are red (ii) first ball is black and Here 𝑆 = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 } , (𝑆) = 6 .
second is red (iii) one of them is black and Let 𝐸 ∶ getting 6 , 𝐸 ′ : not getting 6 .
other is red. 1
𝑃(𝐸) = , 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − = .
1 5
Soln: Let 𝐵 ∶ getting black ball 6 6 6
𝑅 ∶ getting red ball If 𝐴 starts first, then 𝐴 can win at 1𝑠𝑡 , 3𝑟𝑑 , 5𝑡ℎ
8 8 16 throw and so on .
i) 𝑃(𝑅𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑅) ∙ 𝑃(𝑅) = ∙ = . ∴ 𝑃(𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ 𝐸 ′ 𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ 𝐸 ′ 𝐸 ′ 𝐸 ′ 𝐸) + ⋯
18 18 81
ii) 𝑃(𝐵𝑅) = 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝑅) = ∙
10
= .
8 20 = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸)
18 18 81 +𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸) + ⋯
iii) 𝑃(𝐵𝑅 𝑜𝑟 𝑅𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑅𝐵) 1 5 5 1 5 5 5 1
= 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑅) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) = + ∙ ∙ + ∙ ∙ ∙ +⋯
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
10 8 8 10 1 5 2 1 5 3 1
= ∙ + ∙ = +( ) ∙ +( ) ∙ +⋯
18 18 18 18 6 6 6 6 6
20 20 40 5 2 5 3
= + = . =
1
[1 + (6) + (6) + ⋯ ]
81 81 81 6
7. Probability of solving specific problem
𝟏 𝟏 1 1 1 36 6
independently by 𝑨 and 𝑩 are 𝟐 and 𝟑 = [ 5 2
] = 6 × 11 = 11 .
6 1−( )
respectively. If both try to solve the problem 6
6 5
independently. Find the probability that , And 𝑃(𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠) = 1 − = .
11 11
(i) the problem is solved
(ii) exactly one of them solves the problem. Baye’s Theorem :

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
∎ A set of events is said to represents a probability that it is manufactured by the
partition of a sample space if they are mutually machine B?
exclusive and exhaustive events and have non- 7. A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past
zero probabilities. experience, it is known that the probabilities
i.e., 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … , 𝐸𝑛 represent a partition of a that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by
sample space 𝑆 if 3 1
other means of transport are respectively 10 , 5 ,
(i) 𝐸𝑖 ∩ 𝐸𝑗 = 𝜙 , 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗 , 𝑗 = 1, 2, 3, … , 𝑛 1 2
and 5. The probabilities that he will be late
(ii) 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ 𝐸3 ∪ … ∪ 𝐸𝑛 = 𝑆 and 10
1 1 1
(iii) 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 ) > 0 , ∀ 𝑖 = 1 , 2, 3, … , 𝑛 are 4 , 3 and 12 , if he comes by train, bus and
∎ If 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … , 𝐸𝑛 be the partition of a scooter respectively. But, if he comes by other
sample space 𝑆 and 𝐴 be any event of 𝑆 then means of transport, then he will not be late.
n When he arrives, he is late. What is the
𝑃(𝐴) =  P ( A | Ei )  P ( Ei ) probability that he comes by train?
i =1 8. Given three identical boxes I, II and III , each
∎ If { 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … , 𝐸𝑛 } is a partition of a sample containing two coins. In box I, both are good
space 𝑆 and 𝐴 is any event of non-zero coins. In box II, both are silver coins and in box
probability, then III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A
𝑃(𝐸1 )∙𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1 )
𝑃(𝐸𝑖 |𝐴) = person chooses a box at random and takes out
𝑃(𝐸1 )∙𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1 )+𝑃(𝐸2 )∙𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2 )+⋯+𝑃(𝐸𝑛 )∙𝑃(𝐴|𝐸𝑛 )
a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the
for 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 .
probability that the other coin in the box is also
Problems :
of gold?
1. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A
9. There are three coins, one is two headed
ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted and
coin, another is a biased coin that comes up
is returned to the urn. Moreover two additional
headed 75% of the time and third is an
balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn and
unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen
then a ball is drawn at random. What is the
at random and tossed, it shows head. What is
probability that the second ball is red?
the probability that it was the two headed coin?
2. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls,
10. Of the students in a collage, it is known
another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls.
that 60% reside in hostel and 40% are day
One of the two bags is selected at random, a
scholars (not residing in hostel). Previous year
ball is drawn from the bag which is found to be
results report that 30% of all students, who
red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn
reside in hostel attain grade A and 20% of day
from the first bag?
scholars attained A grade in their annual
3. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls, while
examination. At the end of the year, one student
another bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls.
is chosen at random from the collage and he
One ball is drawn at random from one of the
has an A grade. What is the probability that the
bags and it is found to be red. Find the
student is a hotelier?
probability that it was drawn from bag II ?
11. In answering a question on multiple choice
4. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter
test, a student either knows answer or guesses.
drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck 3
drivers. The probabilities of the accidents are Let 4 be the probability that he knows the
1
0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the answer and 4 be the probability that he guesses.
insured persons meets with an accident. What Assuming that a student who guesses at the
is the probability that he is a scooter driver? 1
5. A factory has two machines A and B, past answer will be correct with probability 4 . What
record shows that machine A produced 60% of is the probability that the student knows the
items of output and machine B produced 40% answer, given that he answered it correctly?
3
of the items. Further 2% of items produced by 12. A man is known to speak truth 4 times. He
machine A and 1% produced by machine B were throws a die and reports that it is a 6. Find the
defective. All the items are put into one stock probability that it is actually a 6.
pile and then one item is chosen at random Soln: Let 𝑆 ∶ six occurs in the throw
from this is found to be defective. What is the 𝑆 ′ : six does not occur
probability that it was produced by machine B? 𝐴 ∶ man reports that six occurs
6. In a factory, which manufactures bolts,
machines A, B and C manufacture respectively ∴ Required Probability = 𝑃(𝑆|𝐴)
25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their
outputs 5, 4 and 2 % are respectively defective
13
bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the ∙ 3 3
64
product and is found to be defective, what is the =13 51= = .
∙ + ∙ 3+5 8
64 64

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 Probability , For II PU Board Exams, 2024
4 0.1 90
13. Probability that ‘𝐴’ speaks truth is 5 . A ×
100 100
coin is tossed. ‘𝐴’ reports that a head appears. = 0.1 90 99.9 1
What is the probability that actually there was a ×
100 100
+ 100 ×100
head ?
0.1×90 9
Soln: Let 𝐸1 ∶ coin shows a head = = = 0.083
𝐸2 ∶ coin shows a tail 0.1 × 90 + 99.9 9 + 99.9
𝐻 ∶ ‘𝐴’ man reports that head appears 16. Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of
∴ the required probability = 𝑃(𝐸1 |𝐻) women have grey hair. A grey haired person is
selected at random. What is the probability of
𝑃(𝐸1 ) 𝑃(𝐻 |𝐸1 ) this person being male? Assume that there are
=
𝑃(𝐸1 ) 𝑃(𝐻 |𝐸1 )+𝑃(𝐸2 )𝑃(𝐻|𝐸2 ) equal number of males and females.
14
∙ Soln: Let 𝑀 ∶ selected person is a male
25 4 𝐹 ∶ selected person is a female
=14 11= . 1 1
∙ + ∙ 5 Then 𝑃(𝑀) = , 𝑃(𝐹) = , ∵ number of males
25 25 2 2
and females are equal in number.
14. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in Let 𝐺 ∶ selected person is grey haired.
detecting certain disease when it is infact 5 0.25
present. However, the test also yields a false ∴ 𝑃(𝐺|𝑀) = 5% = and 𝑃(𝐺|𝐹) = 0.25% =
100 100
positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person ∴ Required probability = 𝑃(𝑀|𝐺)
tested. If 0.1% of the population actually has
=
the disease, what is the probability that a
person has the disease, given that his result is 𝑃(𝑀)∙𝑃(𝐺|𝑀)
positive? 𝑃(𝑀)∙𝑃(𝐺 |𝑀)+ 𝑃(𝐹)∙𝑃(𝐺 |𝐹 )
Soln: Let 𝐷 ∶ the person has the disease 1 5
𝐷 ∶ the person has no disease ×
2 100
= 1 5 1 0.25
𝐴 ∶ test result is positive × + ×
0.1 2 100 2 100
∴ 𝑃(𝐷) = 0.1% = 5 5
100
And 𝑃(𝐷) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐷) = 1 − =
0.1 99.9 = = = 0.95
100 100 5+0.25 5.25
∴ the required probability = 𝑃(𝐷|𝐴)
***************
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)
=
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷 )+𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷 )
K.S.Prakash. M.Sc., M.Phil.
0.1 99 Mathematics Tutor,
×
100 100 0.1×99 Mysuru.
= 0.1 99 99.9 0.5 = Ph: 9902044150.
× + × 0.1×99 + 99.9×0.5
100 100 100 100
9.9
= = 0.16 .
9.9 + 49.95
15. Suppose that the reliability of HIV test is
specified as follows. Of people having HIV, 90%
of the test detect the disease but 10% go
undetected. Of people free of HIV, 99% of test
are judged HIV negative but 1% are diagnosed
as HIV positive from a large population of which
0.1% have HIV, one person is selected at
random given the HIV test and the pathologist
reports him/her as HIV positive, what is the
probability that the person actually has HIV?
Soln: Let 𝐸 : selecting a person having HIV
𝐸 ∶ selecting a person not having HIV
𝐴 ∶ result shows HIV positive
∴ the required probability = 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐸) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )
=
𝑃(𝐸) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )+𝑃(𝐸) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )

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