Republic of the Philippines Department of Education Zoe P, Za Beeg STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 4 QUARTER — Module 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING es ohesaligan Name of Learner: pe ae Grade & Section:Mathematics - Grade 11 Alternative Delivery Mode Quarter 4 - Module 1: Hypothesis Testing First Edition, 2020 Republic Act 8293, section 176 states that: No copyright shall subsist in any work of the Government of the Philippines. However, prior approval of the government agency or office wherein the work is created shall be necessary for exploitation of such work for profit. Such agency or office may, among other things, impose as a condition the payment of royalty. Borrowed materials (Le., songs, stories, poems, pictures, photos, brand names, trademarks, etc.) included in this module are owned by their respective copyright holders. Every effort has been exerted to locate and seek permission to use these materials from their respective copyright owners. The publisher and authors do not represent nor claim ownership over them. Published by the Department of Education Secretary: Leonor Magtolis Briones Undersecretary: Diosdado M. San Antonio Development Team of the Module Writer: Dickenson L. Canizares Editors: Mercedita B. Tarog Illustrator: Edward S. Duarte Layout Artist: Abdurauf J. Baldomero Reviewers: EPS, Mathematics Vilma A. Brown, Ed. D. SHS Master Teacher Enrico P. Minao Management Team: SDS Roy C. Tuballa, EMD, JD, CESO VI ASDS Jay S. Montealto, CESO VI ASDS Norma T. Francisco, DM, CESE EPS Mathematics Vilma A. Brown, Ed. D. EPS LRMS Aida F. Coyme, Ed. D. Printed in the Philippines Department of Education — Region IX, Zamboanga Peninsula Office Address: Tiguma, Airport Road, Pagadian City Telefax: (062) - 215 - 3751; 991 - 5975 E-mail Address: [email protected]Introductory Message This Self ~ Learning Module (SLM) is prepared so that you, our dear learners, can continue your studies and learn while at home. Activities, questions, directions, exercises, and discussions are carefully stated for you to understand each lesson. Each SLM is composed of different parts. Each part shall guide you step-by-step as you discover and understand the lesson prepared for you. Pre-tests are provided to measure your prior knowledge on lessons in each SLM. This will tell you if you can proceed on completing this module or if you need to ask your facilitator or your teacher's assistance for better understanding of the lesson. At the end of each module, you need to answer the post-test to self-check your learning. Answer keys are provided for each activity and test. We trust that you will be honest in using these. In addition to the material in the main text, notes to the Teacher are also provided to our facilitators and parents for strategies and reminders on how they can best help you on your home-based learning Please use this module with care. Do not put unnecessary marks on any part of this SLM. Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises and tests. Read the instructions carefully before performing each task. If you have any questions in using this SLM or any difficulty in answering the tasks in this module, do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator. Thank you. Fd What I Need to Know This module was written as an aid in understanding Hypothesis testing knowing that Hypothesis testing is a widely used statistical technique. It forces you to think ahead about what you might find. By forcing you to think ahead, it often helps with decision-making by forcing you to think about what goes into your decision. All of statistics requires clear thinking, and clear thinking generally makes better decisions. Hypothesis testing requires very clear thinking and often leads to better decision-making The module follows a step — by step approach to understand the concept of Hypothesis testing and it is supported by examples and exercises. It covers the key concepts in testing hypothesis and probability of committing a type I or Type Il error. This module was designed to cater the academic needs of diverse learners in achieving and improving the twin goals of mathematics in basic education levels which are critical thinking and problem solving. The language used recognizes the vocabulary level of senior high school students. The lessons followed a developmentally sequenced teaching and learning processes to meet the curriculum requirement. After going through the module, you are expected to’ ‘+ ilustrate (a) null hypothesis; (b) alternative hypothesis; (c) level of significance; (d) rejection region; and (e) types of errors in hypothesis testing (M11/12SP-1va-1);‘© Calculates the probabilities of committing a Type | and Type Il error. (M11/12SP- WVa-2); and ‘+ Identify the parameter to be tested given a real-life problem. (M11/12SP-IVa-3) Believe that learning can continue amid the health crisis. Good luck, stay safe, and God bless. (2) What I Know Directions: Answer the following questions by choosing the letter of the correct answer. Write your answer on a separate sheet. 1. Hypothesis tests are designed so that the hypothesis will be rejected, a.null b. alternative ©. incorrect d. alpha 2. Which of the following is a statement about a population developed for the purpose of testing? a. Hypothesis b. Hypothesis testing ©. Level of significance d. Test-statistic Which of the following is a statement whose validity is tested based on a sample? a. Null hypothesis ». Alternative hypothesis ©. Statistical hypothesis d. Simple hypothesis 4, Which of the following is the dividing point between the region where the null hypothesis is rejected and the region where it is not rejected? a. Critical region . Critical value c. Acceptance region 4d. Significant region 5. The choice of one-tailed test and two-tailed test depends upon a. Null hypothesis b. Alternative hypothesis cc. None of these 4d. Composite hypotheses 6. What type of test is described by the hypothesis below? Ho: y= 50 and Hi: > 50 a. Left-tailed test b. Right-tailed test c. Two-tailed test 4d. No-tailed test 7. Which type of statistical error occurred when Hs is true, and itis rejected? a. Type-t error b. Type-Il error c. Standard error d. Sampling error 8. What type of statistical error occurred when a failing student is passed by an examiner? a. Type-lerror _b. Type-ll error c. Unbiased decision d. Fair decision 9. 1 ~ais also called ; a. Confidence coefficient b. Power of the test ©. Size of the test d. Level of significance 10. Which region of the distribution should the test statistic lie to reject the null hypothesis? 1. Rejection region b. Acceptance region . Both (a) and (b) d. Neither (a) nor (b)LESSON | HYPOTHESIS TESTING Fe What’s In rou iae 1. What would you wish to have with you if you were stranded in an island? Now consider the what ifs? Everybody can benefit from having good decision-making skills as we all encounter situations where decision-making is at most vital daily. Some problems or situations are obviously more severe or complex than others. It would be wonderful to have the ability to solve all problems/situations efficiently and in a timely fashion without difficulty, unfortunately though there is no one way in which all problems can be solved. However, well prepared we are for a situation, there is always an element of the unknown. Although planning and structuring will help make the decision-making process more likely to be successful, good judgement and an element of good luck ultimately determine whether the decision making was a success. fi What’s New Sometimes we hear claims on social media that we find unbelievable. Such as: * a whitening product advertisement stating that if you use their whitening product, then your skin is like snow white, ‘+ The weatherman stating that there is a 90% chance of rain tomorrow. We might feel compelled to challenge such claims. To challenge claims, we must tun a research study upon a sample (since the surveying the entire population would be impossible). To test a claim, you must write two hypotheses. The Null Hypothesis (no change) and the Alternative Hypothesis (change occurs). Then you will assume the Null Hypothesis is true and find evidence against the Alternative Hypothesis. You will either find evidence to reject the Null Hypothesis (it is not true) or fail to reject the Null Hypothesis (there is not enough evidence to disprove the Null Hypothesis).‘(de What is It Hypothesis testing is a decision-making process for evaluating claims about a population. In this process, the researchers must define the population under study, state the particular hypotheses to be investigated, give the significance level, select a sample from the population, collect the data, perform the required test, and reach a conclusion. There are two specific statistical tests for hypothesis testing on means: the zest and the ttest. On the other hand, the chi-square test is used for testing the standard deviation. As you will lear in this module, you need to choose between two statements about the population. These two statements are the hypotheses. Null hypothesis (Hs), is basically, “The population is like this.” It states, in formal terms, that the population is no different than usual. Alternative hypothesis (H.), is, “The population is like something else.” It states that the population is different than the usual, that something has happened to this population, and as a result it has a different mean, or different shape than the usual case. Between the two hypotheses, all possibilities must be covered. Remember that you are making an inference about a population from a sample. Keeping this inference in mind, you can informally transiate the two hypotheses into “I am almost positive that the sample came from a population like this" and “I really doubt that the sample came from a population like this, so it probably came from a population that is like something else”. Notice that you are never entirely sure, even after you have chosen the hypothesis, which is best. Though the formal hypotheses are written as though you will choose with certainty between the one that is true and the one that is false, the informal translation of the hypotheses, with “almost positive” or “probably came”, is a better reflection of what you find. Hypothesis testing has many applications in business, though few managers are aware that is what they are doing. As you will see, hypothesis testing, though disguised, is used in quality control, marketing, and other business applications. Many decisions are made by thinking as though a hypothesis is being tested, even though the manager is not aware of it. Learning the formal details of hypothesis testing will help you make better decisions and better understand the decisions made by others. Every hypothesis testing begins with the statement of a hypothesis. A statistical hypothesis is an inference about a population parameter. This inference may or may not be true. Anyone who has watched commercial TV cannot fall to be aware of the constant barrage of claims. Brand X detergent will wash white clothes sparkling white, With a certain gasoline, your car will get more kilometers to the liter than before. And so on and so on.The only sure way of finding the truth or falsify a hypothesis is by examining the entire population. Because this is not always feasible, a sample is instead examined for the purpose of drawing conclusion. In order to state the hypothesis correctly, the researcher must translate the claim into ‘mathematical symbols. There are three possible sets of statistical hypotheses, parameter = specific value : parameter < specific value parameter = specific value parameter > specific value type | error occurs if one rejects the null hypothesis when itis rue. A type Il error occurs if one does not reject the null hypothesis when it is false. The decision is made based on probabilities, that is, if there is a large difference between the value of the parameter obtained from the sample and the hypothesized Parameter, the null hypothesis is probably not true. The next question the researcher would ask is “How large a difference is necessary to reject the null hypothesis?” here is where the level of significance is used The level of significance is the maximum probability of committing a type | error. This probabilty is symbolized by a (Greek letter alpha). That is, P(type | error) = a. the probability of type Il error is symbolized by B (Greek letter beta), that is, P(type Il error) = B, although in most hypothesis testing situations, b cannot be computed. Generally, statisticians agree on using three arbitrary significance levels: the 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01 level. That is, if the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of type | error will be 10%, 5% and 1%, and the probability of a correct decision will be 90%, 95% and 99%, depending on which level of significance is used. In other words, when a = 0.05, there is a5% chance of rejecting a true nul hypothesis, In a hypothesis-testing situation, the researcher decides what level of significance to Use, It does not have to be the levels mentioned above. It can be any level, depending on the seriousness of the type | error.After significance level is chosen, a critical value is selected from a table for the appropriate test. + The critical value determines the critical and non-critical regions, + The critical region or the rejection region is the range of values of the test value that indicates that there is a significant difference and that the null hypothesis should be rejected. The non-critical or non-rejection region is the range of values of the test value that indicates that the difference was probably due to chance and that the null hypothesis should be rejected. The rejection region can be located on both sides with the non-rejection region in the middle, or it can be on the left side or right side of the non—rejection region. A test with two rejection regions is called a two-tailed test. In this test, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in either of the two critical regions. A one-tailed test indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test values are in the critical region on one side of the parameter. A one-tailed test is either right-tailed when inequality in the alternative hypothesis is greater than or left-ailed when the inequality is less than. If the test is two-tailed, the critical value will be either positive or negative. If the test is lefttalled, the critical value will be negative. If the test is right-tailed, the critical value will be positive. CRITICAL VALUES The z-test is a statistical test for the mean of a population. It can be used when the sample size is greater than 30, or when the population is normally distributed and population deviation is known. where, ¥-sample mean ¢-population deviation o/vn u-hypothesized mean n-sample size The test is a statistical test for the mean of a population and is used when the Population is normally or approximately normally distributed, population is less than 30 and Population deviation is unknown. where é-sample mean s-sample deviation pothesized mean n-sample size s/\n The degrees of freedom are df= n-1.fey What’s More eeu ia al PROBLEM 1. A manufacturer claims that the average lifetime of his lightbulbs is three 3 years or 36 months. The standard deviation is 8 months. Fifty bulbs are selected, and the average lifetime is found to be 32 months. Should the manufacturer's statement be rejected at a = 0.017 SOLUTION: STEP 1: State the hypotheses Ho: y= 36 months He: u #36 months ‘STEP 2: Level of significance « = 0.01 STEP 3: Determine the critical values and rejection region. The significance level is 0.01. the # sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is two-tailed with two rejection regions, one in each tail of the normal distribution curve of y. Because the total area of both rejections is 0.01 (Significance level), the area of rejection in each tail is 0.005, since the sample population is more than 30, z-test is to be utilized. The area to the right of y is 0.5, the area i. between 0 and the critical value z is 0.495. looking at the z-table the critical value is z = 42.575. STEP 4: tate the decision rule. Reject the null hypothesis if z; > 2.575 or z, < -2575. STEP 5: Compute the test statistic. ae ona apse 354 STEP lake a decision. The test satstic z. = -3.54is less than the ciical value z = -2.575 and it falls in the rejection region in the left tail. Therefore, reject Ho and conclude that the average lifetime of the lightbulb is not equal to 36 months. PROBLEM 2. In order to increase customer service, a muffler repair shop claims its mechanics can replace a muffier in 12 minutes. A time management specialist selected ssix repair jobs and found his mean time to be 11.6 minutes. The standard deviation of the sample was 2.1 minutes. At a = 0.025, is there enough evidence to conclude that the mean time in changing a muffier is less than 12 minutes? Since the sample population is less than 30, t-test is to be utilized SOLUTION: STEP1: Ho: STEP 2: a = 0.025 paz He: < 12STEP 3. Since a = 0.025 and df = 6 - STEP 4: Reject H, if t: < -2.571. STEP 5: Compute for the test statistic. Eu _ 16-12 shin ~ 24N6 STEP 6: Since the critical value falls within the noncritical region, do not reject Ho. (ae) What I Have Learned A hypothesis is essentially an idea about the population that you think might be true, but which you cannot prove to be true. While you usually have good reasons to think it is true, and you often hope that it is true, you need to show that the sample data support your idea. Hypothesis testing allows you to find out, in a formal manner, if the sample supports your idea about the population. Because the samples drawn from any population vary, you can never be positive of your finding, but by following generally accepted hypothesis testing procedures, you can limit the uncertainty of your results. In hypothesis testing the following steps should be considered 1. state the null and alternative hypotheses. Select the level of significance. determine the critical value and the rejection region/s. state the decision rule. compute the test statistic. make a decision, whether to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis. = 5, then te = -2.671 Parner eve iia@ LET'S CHECK Directions: Answer the problem applying the steps in testing hypothesis. A diet clinic states that there is an average loss of 24 pounds for those who stay ‘on the program for 20 weeks. The standard deviation is 5 pounds. The clinic tries a new diet, reducing salt intake to see whether that strategy will produce a = greater weight loss. A group of 40 volunteers loses an average of 16.3 pounds each over 20 weeks. ‘Should the clinic change the new diet? Use a= 0.05. STEP 1: STEP 2: STEPS: __ STEP 4: Decision Rule: ‘STEP 5: Compute the test Statistic:STEP6: Conclusion: Assessment A. Directions: Choose the letter that corresponds to your answer. Write your answer on a separate sheet, 41. Which of the following is TRUE? (a) the alternative hypothesis represents the conclusion for which evidence is sought (b) the statement of the null hypothesis never contains an equality (c)an increase in the risk of type | error also increases the risk of a type Il error (d) the computed test statistic is also known as the critical value 2. What is the dividing point between the region where the null hypothesis is rejected and the region where it is not rejected? (@) Critical region (b) Critical value (c) Acceptance region (d) Significant region 3. Which of the following is a statement about a population developed for the purpose of testing? (@) Hypothesis (b) Hypothesis testing (c) Level of significance (d) Test-statistic 4, What do you call any hypothesis which is tested for the purpose of rejection under the assumption that itis true? (2) Null hypothesis (b) Alternative hypothesis () Statistical hypothesis (d) Composite hypothesis 5. Which of the following is a statement about the value of a population parameter? (@) Null hypothesis (b) Alternative hypothesis (©) Simple hypothesis (4) Composite hypothesis 6. Which of the following is a statement whose validity is tested based on a sample? (@) Null hypothesis (b) Alternative hypothesis (c) Statistical hypothesis (4) Simple hypothesis 7. Which of the following is the basis in choosing between one-tailed test and two-tailed test? (@) Null hypothesis (b) Alternative hypothesis (c) Composite hypothesis (4) None of these 8. What type of testis described by the hypothesis below? He: = 50 and He: > 50 (@) Left-tailed test (b) Rightailed test (c) Two-tailed test —_(d) No-taled test 10. Which of the following is a rule or formula that provides a basis for testing a null hypothesis? (a) Test-statistic (b) Population statistic (0) Both of these (@) None of the above 1011. Which statistical error occurred if Ha is true and we reject it? (a) Type-I error (b) Type-Hl error (©) Standard error (4) Sampling error 12. What probability is associated with commiting type-| error? (@)B (b)a (c)1-B (d)1-a 19. Which statistical error occurred ifa failing student is passed by an examiner? (2) Type-t error (b) Typed! error (c) Unbiased decision (d) Fair decision B. Directions: Perform hypothesis testing. (5 Points Each) 1. A biologist knows that the average length of a leaf of a certain plant is 4 inches. The standard deviation of the population is 0.6 inch. A sample of 20 leaves of that type of plant given a new type of plant food had an average length of 4.2 inches. At a = 0.01, is there reason to believe that the new food is responsible for a change in the growth of leaves? 2. During the pandemic people have become more health conscious, especially in eating red meat. In March, the average consumption of red meat per person was 51 kilos. A sample of 100 persons showed that they consumed, on average, 48 kilos of red meat in April with a standard deviation of 12 kilos. Using a = 0.05, is there enough evidence to conclude that the mean consumption of red meat decreased in April. Z- DISTRIBUTION TABLE 40.4896 | 04898 0.4820 [oas22 04340 [ oasat 04955 04956 04966 04967 04975 0.4976 0.4982 0.4982 0.4987 0.4987 ‘T-Distribution Table 12S Answer Key a9 az vib imouy 1304 2 ueUy J2}2016 ueoU anuj e Jo wieIO e poddns 0} eouspins jusioynsu! S| aay) eOUEdYUBIS JO J2A2] $0'0 DYE IYI epNjoUCD ue of 84) 308K@4 0} 11} Om "yg" ON|eA JeoRUD Bu) > p2'6- = paInduloo-z eouIg:9 dang 2'6- Si payndwioo-z onsneys-jsey eyndwog:¢ dag #79" vey) so}20N6 s} anjen payndwoo-z y! o} yooley > dais ys0rz 2 dais 500 =n'z daig #2 <11:0H eH | dais fog up 1 uM 13References: Bluman, A. G., (2012). Elementary Statistics: A Step-by-Step Approach, Eight Edition. New York: MeGraw — Hill Companies, Inc., 400 - 411 14y I AM A FILIPINO by Carlos P. Romulo am a Filipino ~ inheritor of a glorious past, hostage to the uncertain future, As such, [ must prove equal to a two-fold task ~ the task of meeting my responsibility to the past, and the task of performing my obligation to the future. am sprung from a hardy race ~ child many generations removed of ancient Malayan pioneers. Across the centuries, the memory comes rushing back to me: of brown-skinned men putting out to sea in ships that were as fail as their hearts were stout. Over the sea I see them come, borne upon the billowing wave and the whistling wind, carried upon the mighty swell of hope — hope in the free abundance of the new land that was to be their home and their children’s forever. This is the land they sought and found. Every inch of shore that their eyes first set upon, every hill and mountain that, beckoned to them with a green and purple invitation, every mile of rolling plain that their view encompassed, every river and lake that promised a plentiful living and the fruitfulness of commerce, is a hollowed spot fo me. ; By the strength of their hearts and hands, by every right of Jaw, human and divine, this land and all the appurtenances thereof ~ the black and fertile soil, the seas and Takes and rivers teeming with fish, the forests with their inexhaustible ‘wealth in wild and timber, the mountains with their bowels swollen with minerals ~ the whole of this rich ‘appy will pass it to my children, more. heroes ~ seed that flowered down t courage and defiance. In my vei yet blood that sent ‘0 battle drove Diego Silang and Dagoho foreign oppressor. : ‘That seed is immortal. Itis in the heart of Jose Rizal when a volley of shots put Gregorio del Pilar at Tirad. Pas Calumpit, that bloomed in flowers of heart of dj royally again in the proud heart of he stood at last on. the thiesho Palace, in the symbolic act It is the mark of my manhood, the symbol of my dignity as a human being. Like the seeds that were once buried in the tomb of Tutankhamen many thousands of years ago, it shall- grow and flower and bear fruit again. It is the insigne of my race, and my generation is but a stage in the ‘unending search of my people for freedom and happiness. Lam a Filipino, child of the marriage of the East and the West. The East, with its languor and mysticism, its passivity and end ‘was my mother, and my sire was thundering across the seas with the Machine. I am of the East, an = seen the light of cart has been lifted shall not rest until my “blessed by these,