Definition

• Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or

system over time.
• Simulation involves the generation of an artificial history of the
system and the observation of that artificial history to draw
inferences concerning the operating characteristics of the real system
that is represented.
• Simulation is an indispensable problem solving methodology for the
solution of many real-world problems.
• Simulation is used to describe and analyze the behavior of a system,
ask what-if questions about the real.
Simulation modeling Concept
• System, Models and Events
• System State Variables:- The system state variables are the collection
of all information needed to define what is happening within a system
to a sufficient level (i.e., to attain the desired output) at a given point
in time.
• Entities and Attributes :- An entity represents an object that requires
explicit definition. An entity can be dynamic in that it "moves"
through the system, or it can be static in that it serves other entities.
Attributes should be considered as local values.
• Resources :- A resource is an entity that provides service to dynamic
entities.
• List Processing:- Entities are managed by allocating them to resources
that provide service; by attaching them to event notices, thereby
suspending their activity into the future; or by placing them into an
ordered list. Lists are used to represent queues.
Modeling Structure
• There are four modeling structure in Business simulation.
• Process Interaction method:- The simulation structure that has the greatest intuitive
appeal is the process-interaction method. The notion is that the computer program should
emulate the flow of an object through the system. The entity moves as far as possible in the
system until it is delayed, enters an activity, or exits from the system. When the entity's
movement is halted, the clock advances to the time of the next movement of any entity.
• For Eg. in a model of a self-service laundry a customer may enter the system, wait for a washing
machine to become available, wash his or her clothes in the washing machine, wait for a basket
to become available to unload the washing machine, transport the clothes in the basket to a drier,
wait for a drier to become available, unload the clothes into a drier, dry the clothes, and leave the
laundry.
• Event Scheduling Method:-
The basic concept of the event-scheduling method is to advance time to when something next
happens.
For eg. in the self-service laundry, if a customer's washing is finished and there is a basket available,
the basket could be allocated immediately to the customer and unloading of the washing machine
could begin. Time is advanced to the next scheduled event (usually the end of an activity) and
activities are examined to see if any can now start as a consequence.

• Activity Scanning :-
Activity scanning produces a simulation program composed of independent modules waiting to be
executed. Scanning takes place at fixed time increments at which a determination is made
concerning whether or not an event occurs at that time. If an event occurs, the system state is
updated.
3 Phase Methods:-
• Time is advanced until there is a state change in the system or until something next happens. The
system is examined to determine all of the events that take place at this time (i.e., all the activity
completions that occur). Only when all resources that are due to be released at this time have
been released is reallocation of these resources into new activities started in the third phase of
the simulation. the first phase is time advance. The second phase is the release of those
resources scheduled to end their activities at this time. The third phase is to start activities given
the global picture about resource availability.
Case Study (Adhoc simulation)
• Consider the operation of a one-teller bank where customers arrive
for service between 1 and 10 minutes apart in time, integer values
only, each value equally likely. The customers are served in between 1
and 6 minutes, also integer valued, and equally likely. Restricting the
times to integer values is an abstraction of reality since time is
continuous, but this aids in presenting the example. The objective is
to simulate the bank operation, by hand, until 20 customers are
served, and to compute measures of performance such as the
percentage of idle time, the average waiting time per customer, and
so on.
• To simulate the process, random inter arrival and service times
need to be generated. Assume that the inter arrival times are
generated using a spinner that has possibilities for the values 1
through 10. Further assume that the service times are
generated using a die that has possibilities for the values 1
through 6.
• Column (I), Customer,lists the 20 customers who arrive at the
system. It is assumed that customer 1 arrives at time zero;
thus a dash is indicated in row 1 of column (2), Time Between
Arrivals. Rows 2 through 20 of column (2) were generated
using the spinner. Column (3), Arrival Time, shows the
simulated arrival times. Since customer 1 is assumed to arrive
at time 0 and there is a 5-minute inter arrival time, customer 2
arrives at time 5. There is a I-minute inter arrival time for
customer 3; thus the arrival occurs at time 6. This process of
adding the inter arrival time to the previous arrival time is
called bootstrapping. By continuing this process, the arrival
times of all 20 customers are determined. Column (4), Service
Time, contains the simulated service times for all 20
customers. These were generated by rolling the die.
Now simulation of the service process begins. At time 0, customer 1 arrived and
immediately began service. The service time was 2 minutes, so the service period
ended
at time 2. The total time in the system for customer 1 was 2 minutes. The bank teller
was not idle since simulation began with the arrival of a customer. The customer did
not have to wait for the teller.
At time 5, customer 2 arrived and began service immediately, as shown in column
(6). The service time was 2 minutes, so the service period ended at time 7, as shown
in column (6). The bank teller was idle from time 2 until time 5, so 3 minutes of idle
time occurred. Customer 2 spent no time in the queue.
Customer 3 arrived at time 6, but service could not begin until time 7, as customer 2
was being served until time 7. The service time was 6 minutes, so service was
completed
at time 13. Customer 3 was in the system from time 6 until time 13, or for 7 minutes,
as indicated in column (7), Time in System. Although there was no idle time, customer
3 had to wait in the queue for 1 minute for service to begin.
This process continues for all 20 customers, and the totals shown in columns (7),
(8) (Idle Time), and (9) (Time in Queue) are entered. Some performance measures can
now be calculated as follows:
Average time in system = 79/20 = 3.95 minutes.
Percent idle time = (30/99)(100) = 30%.
Average waiting time per customer = 10/20 = 0.5 minute.
Fraction having to wait = 5/20 = 0.25.
Average waiting time of those who waited = 10/5 = 2 minutes.
This very limited simulation indicates that the system is functioning well. Only 25%
of the customers had to wait. About 30% of the time the teller is idle. Whether a slower
teller should replace the current teller depends on the cost of having to wait versus any
savings from having a slower server.
Advantages
1. Choose correctly. Simulation lets you test every aspect of a proposed change or
addition without committing resources to their acquisition. This is critical, because once
the hard decisions have been made, the bricks have been laid, or the material handling
systems have been installed, changes and corrections can be extremely expensive. Simulation
allows you to test your designs without committing resources to acquisition.
2. Compress and expand time. By compressing or expanding time, simulation
allows you to speed up or slow down phenomena so that you can investigate them
thoroughly. You can examine an entire shift in a matter of minutes if you desire, or you
can spend 2 hours examining all the events that occurred during 1 minute of simulated
activity.
3. Understand why. Managers often want to know why certain phenomena occur in a real system. With simulation, you
determine the answer to the "why" questions by reconstructing the scene and taking a microscopic examination of the
system to determine why the phenomenon occurs. You cannot accomplish this with a real system because you cannot see
or control it in its entirety.
4. Explore possibilities. One of the greatest advantages of using simulation software is that once you have developed a
valid simulation model, you can explore new policies, operating procedures, or methods without the expense and
disruption of experimenting with the real system. Modifications are incorporated in the model, and you observe the
effects of those changes on the computer rather than on the real system.
5. Diagnose problems. The modern factory floor or service organization is very complex, so complex that it is impossible
to consider all the interactions taking place in a given moment. Simulation allows you to better understand the interactions
among the variables that make up such complex systems. Diagnosing problems and gaining insight into the importance of
these variables increases your understanding of their important effects on the performance of the overall system.
6. Identify constraints. Production bottlenecks give manufacturers headaches. It is easy to forget that bottlenecks
are an effect rather than a cause. However, by using simulation to perform bottleneck analysis, you can discover
the cause of the delays in work in process, information, materials, or other processes.
7. Develop understanding. Many people operate with the philosophy that talking loudly, using computerized
layouts, and writing complex reports convinces others that a manufacturing or service system design is valid. In
many cases these designs are based on someone's thoughts about the way the system operates rather than on
analysis. Simulation studies aid in providing understanding about how a system really operates rather than
indicating someone's predictions about how a system will operate.
8. Visualize the plan. Taking your designs beyond CAD drawings by using the animation features offered by many
simulation packages allows you to see your facility or organization actually running. Depending on the software
used, you may be able to view your operations from various angles and levels of magnification, even in three
dimensions. This allows you to detect design flaws that appear credible when seen just on paper on in a two-
dimensional CAD drawing.
9. Build consensus. Using simulation to present design changes creates an objective opinion. You avoid having
inferences made when you approve or disapprove of designs because you simply select the designs and
modifications that provided the most desirable results, whether it be increased production or reducing the waiting
time for service. In addition, it is much easier to accept reliable simulation results, which have been
modeled, tested, validated, and visually represented, instead of one person's opinion of
the results that will occur from a proposed design
Disadvantages
The disadvantages of simulation include the following:
1. Model building requires special training. It is an art that is learned over time and
through experience. Furthermore, if two models of the same system are constructed by
two competent individuals, they may have similarities, but it is highly unlikely that they
will be the same.
2. Simulation results may be difficult to interpret. Since most simulation outputs are
essentially random variables (they are usually based on random inputs), it may be hard to
determine whether an observation is a result of system interrelationships or randomness.
3. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Skimping
on resources for modeling and analysis may result in a simulation model and/or
analysis that is not sufficient to the task.
4. Simulation may be used inappropriately. Simulation is used in some cases when
an analytical solution is possible, or even preferable. This is particularly true in the
simulation of some waiting lines where closed-form queueing models are available, at
least for long-run evaluation
Steps involved in Simulation
1. Problem formulation. Every simulation study begins with a statement of the problem. If the statement is provided
by those that have the problem (client), the simulation analyst must take extreme care to ensure that the problem is
extremely understood. If a problem statement is prepared by the simulation analyst, it is important that the client
understand and agree with the formulation. It is suggested that a set of assumptions be prepared by the simulation
analyst and agreed to by the client. Even with all of these precautions, it is possible that the problem will need to be
reformulated as the simulation study progresses.
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan. Another way to state this step is "prepare a proposal." This step
should be accomplished regardless of location of the analyst and client (i.e., as an external or internal consultant).
The objectives indicate the questions that are to be answered by the simulation study. The project plan should
include a statement of the various scenarios that will be investigated. The plans for the study should be indicated in
terms of time that will be required, personnel that will be used, hardware and software requirements if the client
wants to run the model and conduct the analysis, stages in the investigation, output at each stage, cost of the study
and billing procedures, if any.
3. Model conceptualization. The real-world system under investigation is abstracted by a conceptual model, a series of
mathematical and logical relationships concerning
the components and the structure of the system. It is recommended that modeling begin simply and that the model
grow until a model of appropriate complexity has been developed. For example, consider the model of a
manufacturing and material handling system. The basic model with the arrivals, queues, and servers is constructed.
Then add the failures and shift schedules. Next, add the material-handling capabilities. Finally, add the special
features. It is not necessary to construct an unduly complex model. This will add to the cost of the study and the time
for its completion without increasing the quality of the output.
4. Data collection. Shortly after the proposal is "accepted," a schedule of data requirements should be submitted to
the client. In the best of circumstances, the client has been collecting the kind of data needed in the format required
and can submit these data to the simulation analyst in electronic format. Often, the client indicates that the required
data are indeed available. However, when the data are delivered they are found to be quite different than anticipated.
For example, in the simulation of an airline reservation system, the simulation analyst was told "we have every bit of
data that you want over the last five years." When the study began the data delivered were the average
"talk time" of the reservationist for each of the years. Individual values were needed, not summary measures. This is
to indicate that the simulation analyst can readily construct the model while the data collection is progressing.
5. Model translation. The conceptual model constructed in step 3 is coded into a
computer-recognizable form, an operational model.
6. Verified? Verification concerns the operational model. Is it performing properly? Even with small textbook-
sized models, it is quite possible that they have verification difficulties. These models are orders of magnitude
smaller than real models (say, 50 lines of computer code versus 2000 lines of computer code). It is highly advisable
that verification take place as a continuing process. It is ill advised for the simulation analyst to wait until the entire
model is complete to begin the verification process. Also, use of an interactive run controller, or debugger, is
highly encouraged as an aid to the verification process.
7. Validated? Validation is the determination that the conceptual model is an accurate representation of the real
system. Can the model be substituted for the real system for the purposes of experimentation? If there is an
existing system, call it the base system, an ideal way to validate the model is to compare its output to that of the
base system. Unfortunately, there is not always a base system (such as in the design of a new system).
8. Experimental design. For each scenario that is to be simulated, decisions need to
be made concerning the length of the simulation run, the number of runs (also called
replications), and the manner of initialization, as required.
9. Production runs and analysis. Production runs, and their subsequent analysis, are
used to estimate measures of performance for the scenarios that are being simulated.
10. More runs? Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed, the simulation
analyst determines if additional runs are needed and if any additional scenarios
need to be simulated.
1 1 . Documentation and reporting. Documentation is necessary for numerous reasons.
If the simulation model is going to be used again by the same or different analysts,
it may be necessary to understand how the simulation model operates. This will stimulate
confidence in the simulation model so that the client can make decisions based
on the analysis. Also, if the model is to be modified, this can be greatly facilitated by
adequate documentation. One experience with an inadequately documented model is
usually enough to convince a simulation analyst of the necessity of this important step.
The result of all the analysis should be reported clearly and concisely. This will enable
the client to review the final formulation, the alternatives that were addressed, the criterion
by which the alternative systems were compared, the results of the experiments,
and analyst recommendations, if any.
12. Implementation. The simulation analyst acts as a reporter rather than an advocate.
The report prepared in step 11 stands on its merits and is just additional information
that the client uses to make a decision. If the client has been involved throughout the
study period, and the simulation analyst has followed all the steps rigorously, the likelihood
of a successful implementation is increased.
Area of application

Manufacturing and Material Handling Applications

Presentations included the following, among many others:
Minimizing synchronization delays of prefabricated parts before assembly Evaluation of AGV routing strategies
Flexible modeling and analysis of large-scale AS/RS-AGV systems
Design and analysis of large-scale material handling systems
Material flow analysis of automotive assembly plants
Analysis of the effects of work-in-process levels on customer satisfaction
Assessing the cost of quality
 Public system display
Health Systems Natural Resources
Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms Nonpoint-source pollution analysis
Lymphocyte development in immune-compromized patients Weed scouting and weed control decision making
Asthma dynamics and medical amelioration Evaluation of surface water quality data
Timing of liver transplants Public Services
Diabetic retinopathy Emergency ambulance system analysis
Evaluation of nurse-staffing and patient-population scenarios Evaluation of flow of civil lawsuits
Evaluation of automated equipment for a clinical processing Evaluation of field offices within a government agency
laboratory
Evaluation of hospital surgical suite and critical care area
Military Systems
Air Force support equipment use
Analysis of material handling equipment for prepositioning ships
Development and implementation of measures of effectiveness
Reengineering traditional stovepiped Army staffs for information
operations
Evaluation of theater airlift system productivity
Evaluation of C-141 depot maintenance
Evaluation of air mobility command channel cargo system
Service System Applications
Presentations included the following, among many others:
Transportation
Analysis of intelligent vehicle highway systems
Evaluation of traffic control procedures at highway work zones
Evaluation of taxi management and route control
Animation of a toll plaza
Port traffic planning model analysis
Evaluation of rapid transit modeling with automatic and manual controls
Computer Systems Performance

User transaction processing behavior analysis .

Evaluation of database transaction management protocols
Evaluation of analytic models of memory queueing
Air Transportation
Evaluation of human behavior in aircraft evacuations
Analysis of airport/airline operations
Evaluation of combination carrier air cargo hub
Communications Systems
Trunked radio network analysis
Evaluation of telephone service provisioning process
Picture archiving and communications system analysis
Evaluation of modeling of broadband telecommunication networks
Analysis of virtual reality for telecommunication networks
Discrete Simulation Modelling
The components that flow in a discrete system, such as people, equipment, orders, and
raw materials, are called entities. There are many types of entities, and each has a set
of characteristics or attributes. In simulation modeling, groupings of entities are called
files, sets, lists, or chains. The goal of a discrete simulation model is to portray the
activities in which the entities engage and thereby learn something about the system's
dynamic behavior. Simulation accomplishes this by defining the states of the system
and constructing activities that move it from state to state. The beginning and ending of
each activity are events. The state of the model remains constant between consecutive
event times, and a complete dynamic portrayal of the state of the model is obtained by
advancing simulated time from one event to the next. This timing mechanism, referred
to as the next-event approach, is used in many discrete simulation languages.
There are many ways to formulate a discrete simulation model. Four formulation
possibilities are:
1. Defining the changes in state that occur at each event time
2. Describing the process (network) through which the entities in the model flow
3. Describing the activities in which the entities engage
Continuous Simulation Modelling
In a continuous simulation model, the state of the system is represented by dependent
variables that change continuously over time. To distinguish continuous-change variables
from discrete-change variables, the former are, for communication convenience,
referred to as state variables. A continuous simulation model is constructed by defining
equations for a set of state variables.
State variables in a continuous model can be represented by one or more of the
following forms:

Typically, the independent variable is time which, in the examples above, is represented
by t and n. Simulation solutions are obtained by specifying values of the variables in the
equations at an initial (or specific) point in time and using these values as inputs to obtain
solutions at a next point in time. The new values then become the starting values for the
next evaluation. This evaluation-step-evaluation procedure for obtaining values for the
state variables is referred to as continuous simulation analysis.