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Task 1 - Data

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Minh Hoàng 2001 Nguyễn
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20 views5 pages

Task 1 - Data

Uploaded by

Minh Hoàng 2001 Nguyễn
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The table below contain the expected and actual payouts in respect of the lapse by year.

Expected payouts in respect Actual payouts in respect of


Year
of lapses lapses
2015 143,767,446 121,774,575
2016 181,244,022 161,890,816
2017 178,138,758 181,177,802
2018 152,604,107 191,588,138
2019 170,349,129 189,353,332
2020 186,216,000 195,040,124
2021 191,499,664 246,163,957
2022 187,968,157 250,548,243
Lapses 7 year
113.4%
Expected Actual
Year Number of policies Experience
decrement decrement
2015 143,767,446 121,774,575
2016 181,244,022 161,890,816
2017 178,138,758 181,177,802
2018 152,604,107 191,588,138
2019 170,349,129 189,353,332
2020 186,216,000 195,040,124
2021 191,499,664 246,163,957
2022 187,968,157 250,548,243

Lap
140.0%
130.0%
120.0%
110.0%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
2019 2020 2
Comments:
5 year 2 year 1 year 1 std dev 1/10
120.7% 130.9% 133.3% 12.1% 100% 86.0%
Observed Sample Sample lower
X bar Lapse Assumption df
A/E mean variance bound
84.7% 3.8%
89.3% 3.8%
101.7% 3.8%
125.5% 3.8%
111.2% 102.5% 2.743% 102% 3.8% 4 90.8%
104.7% 106.5% 1.764% 106% 3.8% 4 92.6%
128.5% 114.3% 1.473% 114% 3.8% 4 93.2%
133.3% 120.7% 1.474% 121% 3.8% 4 93.2%

Lapses

Column Z
1 in 10 years
1 in 20 years
Observed 5 year A/E

2020 2021 2022


1/10 1/20 1/20 1/100 1/100
94.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.5% 99.5% Bias adj.
upper lower upper lower upper
bound bound bound bound bound
Year 5 Year A/E

114.6% 85.4% 117.3% 75.6% 134.1% 2019 102%


111.7% 88.3% 113.9% 80.4% 127.3% 2020 106%
110.7% 89.3% 112.7% 82.1% 125.0% 2021 114%
110.7% 89.3% 112.7% 82.1% 125.0% 2022 121%
0
1/10 1/10 1/20 1/20 1/100 1/100
98.5% 99.5%
86% lower 94% upper 94% lower 96% upper lower upper
bound bound bound bound bound bound

75.6% 9.8% 5.4% 23.8% 2.7% 16.8%


80.4% 7.9% 4.3% 19.1% 2.1% 13.5%
82.1% 7.2% 3.9% 17.5% 2.0% 12.3%
82.1% 7.2% 3.9% 17.5% 2.0% 12.3%

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