UBS Strategy Outlook 4Q2023
UBS Strategy Outlook 4Q2023
UBS Strategy Outlook 4Q2023
Strategy Outlook
UBS Hedge Fund Solutions
Fourth Quarter 2023
The views expressed are as of the date of this material and are a general guide to the views of UBS Hedge Fund Solutions LLC (HFS), a division within
UBS Asset Management. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice.
Macro thoughts and
portfolio themes
Risk sentiment turned negative in Q3 as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric,
concerns over fiscal sustainability, and a surge in oil prices culminated in a notable sell
off in equities and rates.
While conventional 60/40 portfolios (FIRV). Overall, we are pleased with our geopolitics, warrant higher rates for
were challenged as correlations across outperformance (versus traditional risk the foreseeable future. Further
asset classes turned positive, UBS assets) as it showcased the key role corroborating the case for higher real
Hedge Fund Solutions’ (“HFS”) broad hedge funds can play in a well- rates is economic resilience. Despite a
based diversified and broad based diversified strategic asset allocation. general slowdown in some of the
neutral hedge fund strategies generally That said, we recognize that a 5% risk- forward-looking growth indicators, the
produced positive returns for the free rate is a formidable benchmark private sector is in much better shape
quarter. Within Trading, curve which we strive to beat without than it has been in previous cycles. US
steepening positions benefited from altering the consistency of our returns. consumers, particularly homeowners,
the move higher in long-term rates, continue to enjoy historically low
while natural gas trading in We believe the repricing in Q3 reflects mortgage debt payments, rising real
commodities was also additive to market participants coming to terms income (albeit decelerating), and 15
returns. In Equity Hedged, the risk-off with a higher-for-longer rate years of accumulated wealth (via
tone bode well for managers’ short environment, aligning with our views. financial [and housing] asset inflation).
positions. These gains were While COVID-induced supply shocks Trends like these have helped sustain
supplemented by income derived from have mostly faded, the inflationary GDP growth, which in turn, may
ABS and agency mortgage strategies, forces stemming from secular dynamics require restrictive monetary policy to
as well as cash/futures basis trading such as an aging population, the prevent a rapid pick-up in inflation.
within fixed income relative value energy transition, and tectonic shifts in
As such, we maintain a defensive (as they have done so historically). In with cash yielding 5%, we place
positioning across our allocations. Equity Hedged, our allocations are increasing emphasis on sourcing short
FIRV and macro strategies remain core primarily driven by bottom-up factors; duration, carry-oriented strategies
allocations as they are expected to in addition to market neutral/multi-PM that offer less correlation to broader
benefit from a continuation of strategies, we position ourselves with markets. This is mostly complemented
elevated rate volatility. Tactical Macro sector specialists trafficking in more by allocations to more trading-
Trading managers may also offer inefficient, alpha-rich pockets of the oriented corporate long / short
positive convexity should there be a market, as well as with managers who managers that can be nimble in
more pronounced deterioration in have demonstrated expertise on the turbulent markets.
economic conditions and asset prices short side. Within Credit/Income, and
Agency MBS 6
Reinsurance / ILS 2
Asset-Backed 5
Other Income 5
Trading Systematic 3
Discretionary 12
Commodities 5
Trading total 21
We believe that the outlook for developed market (DM) macro We continue to favor fixed income relative value (FIRV)
strategies could improve with a more persistent trend of curve strategies and plan to maintain our allocations. Q4 and Q1
steepening in the US and other G3 markets. Managers could tend to be beneficial for FIRV managers, with opportunities
also benefit from short rates in Japan if inflationary pressures arising from potential year-end funding dislocations and the
continue. Additionally, we expect DM-focused managers to release of issuance schedules; thus, our 6-month forward-
perform well in a recessionary environment, be it via front-end looking return expectations for the strategy remain strong.
longs or bull steepeners, as well as short positions in equities
and credit. We maintain our allocations within emerging Meanwhile, our outlook for capital structure/volatility
markets (EM), after having added to this segment in previous arbitrage remains positive as the 2025-2026 maturity wall
quarters. While EM managers were challenged amid the risk- could lead to a surge in new issuance and corporate actions
off tape in Q3, the opportunity set still appears to be attractive, which should benefit the opportunity set.
with potentially better entry points into some of the receiver
trades and FX carry trades in countries that still hold a material
real rates buffer. In commodities, we continue to reduce our
target allocation, with our remaining exposure focused on gas/
power strategies, complemented by strategic long investments
in less correlated green materials.
250 90 -28
80 -30
150
70 -32
Index Level
50
Spread
Spread
60 -34
-50
50 -36
-150
40 -38
-250 30 -40
-350 20 -42
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023
Source: Bloomberg; Daily data; Jan 2, 2020-Oct 4, 2023. Discretionary trading Source: Bloomberg; Daily data; Oct 6, 2022-Oct 17, 2023. Data illustrates
strategies generally tend to underperform when the index is closer to zero, German and US 10y “invoice spreads” over the last year. Short swap spreads
which indicates that economic data releases are generally in line with market have been additive to manager performance this year across both macro and
expectations. Macro managers tend to perform better on macro data surprise, be FIRV strategies. The underperformance of cash bonds (sometimes expressed
to the upside or downside. US numbers continue to surprise to the upside, while via futures, as shown here) against swaps is expected to continue as central
negative news in Europe seems to have been more priced in and the backdrop banks continue the QT process while governments need to issue more debt
is generally improving. There is less variation in the UK and Japan. Indices are to fund higher fiscal needs. Indices are for illustrative purposes only. Please
for illustrative purposes only. Please see end notes for index descriptions. see end notes for index descriptions.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
We strive to maintain a low-beta construct. Our allocations As rates reach peak levels, we continue to seek short duration
mostly consist of sector specialists trafficking in more income opportunities with lower correlation to corporate
inefficient, alpha-rich pockets of the market (e.g., technology/ credit spreads, expressed through a mix of thematic funds
AI), as well as managers with more diversified exposure that and co-investments with attractive carry. One example of this
have demonstrated strength on the short side. This is also is an opportunity in US residential real estate debt that,
complemented by allocations to market neutral/multi-PM despite strong fundamentals, was attractively priced due to
strategies. funding pressures faced by regional banks. Elsewhere in
credit, our exposure to agency MBS remains full as it provides
We maintain minimal exposure to China given the weak a source of carry without credit risk given the government
economic rebound thus far and underwhelming government guarantee. The strategy also benefits from multi-decade low
stimulus. While we have seen signs of stabilization in markets, prepayment speeds. We plan to maintain current allocations
liquidity constraints may present additional challenges for to corporate long/short approaches. The opportunity is
managers with a focus on short selling. After 30 years of expected to remain as corporate distress, default activity and
depressed inflation, Japan may be transitioning to the next overall dispersion picks up, providing opportunities across
phase of the economic cycle, where rising inflation and higher fundamental long/short, event-driven, stressed and special
interest rates could create a healthy amount of dispersion in situations. Our allocations to corporate long-biased and
equity markets that is conducive for fundamental investing. distressed remain underweight. Distress in the corporate
sector has increased, spreads remain tight and better entry
points will likely emerge later in the credit cycle.
8 1200
6
1000
4
2 800
Short Alpha (%)
Spread (bps)
0
600
-2
-4 400
-6
200
-8
-10 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
High Yield Investment Grade
Source: Bloomberg; Monthly data; Jan 1, 2023-Sep 29, 2023. Data illustrates Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Daily Data; Jun 30, 2018-
the short alpha (calculated as SPX index minus the average of GSCBMSAL Sep 30, 2023. Indices are for illustrative purposes only. Please see end notes
index, MSSHRTUS index, MSXXSHRT index, GSTHVISP index). Please see end for index descriptions.
notes for index descriptions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Zurich
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