Scatter plot of workers versus production

500 Production is highest when there are many workers

and lowest when there are few workers.
If we take that into account, we should take this into
account in our forecasts for production.
450

400
Production

350

300

250

200
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Workers
 Scatter plot of machines versus production
500 We can see a strong positive relationship between
machines and production.
We expected this based on the positive correlation
coefficient.
This means we should take machines into account in
450 our model to forecast production.

400
Production

350

300

250

200
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Machines
 Scatter plot of afternoon versus production
500

450

400
Morning and Afternoon shifts
evening shifts Production appears
Production

to be higher in the
afternoon.
350
We should include
this information in
our forecasts.
300

250

200
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Afternoon
 Scatter plot of day of week versus production
500

450

400
Weekdays Weekends
The day of the
Production

week does not

350 seem to affect
production.

300

250

200
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Day of week
 Scatter plot of breakdown versus production
500

450

400
No breakdown Breakdown
There are few
Production

breakdowns so
350 it is hard to see
a pattern.

300

250

200
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Breakdown
 Scatter plot of delivery versus production
500

450

400
No delivery Delivery
Deliveries do not
Production

appear to affect
350 production.

300

250

200
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Delivery
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.62
R Square 0.39 Variance in workers explains 39% of the variance in production.
Adjusted R Square 0.38
Standard Error 36.3 We expect that 95% of the time production will be within two standard errors
Observations 150.0

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 122248.62 122248.62 92.92 0.00
Residual 148 194706.78 1315.59
Total 149 316955.39

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 75.3 26.8 2.8 0.01 22.3
Workers 4.0 0.4 9.6 0.00 3.2
In the sample, adding one worker added 4 units to production.
If the p-value is less than 0.05 then we are at
In the sample, adding one wok
RESIDUAL OUTPUT We do not know what the real
But we are 95% sure that addin
Observation Predicted Production Residuals
1 332.6 14.4 This table shows the predicted production for each observati
2 348.7 -3.7 Production is predicted based on the model.
3 312.5 -26.5 The residuals show the difference between actual production
4 360.7 -44.7 A residual close to zero means that our forecast was very acc
5 364.8 101.2
6 336.6 -33.6
7 352.7 -52.7
8 368.8 46.2
9 300.4 30.6
10 304.5 -63.5
11 296.4 -19.4
12 288.4 29.6
13 332.6 40.4
14 316.5 -10.5
15 344.7 -43.7
16 348.7 32.3
17 364.8 -63.8
18 296.4 -61.4
19 384.9 49.1
20 324.6 15.4
21 332.6 -5.6
22 308.5 0.5
23 360.7 -23.7
24 324.6 26.4
25 376.8 1.2
26 312.5 24.5
27 368.8 60.2
28 368.8 70.2
29 356.7 -26.7
30 316.5 -31.5
31 284.4 -21.4
32 352.7 -3.7
33 292.4 -16.4
34 336.6 8.4
35 388.9 54.1
36 380.8 -36.8
37 344.7 -45.7
38 276.3 21.7
39 304.5 -18.5
40 284.4 20.6
41 332.6 28.4
42 344.7 -0.7
43 304.5 -2.5
44 324.6 28.4
45 332.6 33.4
46 352.7 -14.7
47 308.5 33.5
48 296.4 -28.4
49 332.6 -42.6
50 376.8 65.2
51 304.5 24.5
52 292.4 10.6
53 376.8 29.2
54 316.5 -0.5
55 368.8 -79.8
56 348.7 2.3
57 276.3 -30.3
58 372.8 -21.8
59 348.7 -3.7
60 356.7 38.3
61 356.7 -49.7
62 348.7 73.3
63 320.5 -33.5
64 372.8 19.2
65 292.4 47.6
66 368.8 -44.8
67 352.7 -36.7
68 340.6 -12.6
69 280.3 -60.3
70 356.7 44.3
71 316.5 31.5
72 304.5 -42.5
 73 336.6 11.4
74 304.5 38.5
75 292.4 -77.4
76 336.6 -29.6
77 352.7 43.3
78 384.9 27.1
79 312.5 -35.5
80 320.5 -17.5
81 296.4 40.6
82 292.4 17.6
83 340.6 17.4
84 356.7 1.3
85 292.4 10.6
86 364.8 52.2
87 312.5 35.5
88 368.8 -38.8
89 324.6 -23.6
90 296.4 7.6
91 356.7 -28.7
92 320.5 23.5
93 352.7 53.3
94 368.8 -59.8
95 324.6 -4.6
96 316.5 -39.5
97 276.3 -47.3
98 292.4 29.6
99 356.7 21.3
100 336.6 43.4
101 324.6 36.4
102 312.5 -42.5
103 356.7 -52.7
104 308.5 42.5
105 348.7 -2.7
106 360.7 -14.7
107 316.5 26.5
108 340.6 -74.6
109 348.7 -43.7
110 292.4 23.6
111 368.8 44.2
112 356.7 -5.7
113 308.5 31.5
114 356.7 9.3
115 296.4 14.6
116 328.6 -9.6
117 336.6 4.4
118 352.7 -1.7
119 316.5 27.5
120 336.6 -26.6
121 356.7 20.3
122 336.6 74.4
123 340.6 -14.6
124 372.8 -18.8
125 280.3 27.7
126 368.8 -16.8
127 308.5 33.5
128 320.5 -2.5
129 296.4 -13.4
130 356.7 22.3
131 352.7 -7.7
132 292.4 59.6
133 364.8 -47.8
134 336.6 6.4
135 300.4 -9.4
136 344.7 -14.7
137 356.7 -3.7
138 344.7 -33.7
139 332.6 -43.6
140 360.7 -27.7
141 340.6 6.4
142 332.6 7.4
143 324.6 -5.6
144 364.8 0.2
145 276.3 11.7
146 316.5 -40.5
147 292.4 4.6
148 360.7 -57.7
149 304.5 67.5
150 344.7 -38.7
ithin two standard errors of our forecast.

If this is less than 0.05 then we are at least 95% confident that workers does help to explain production in the population.

Upper 95%
128.4 Our forecast is that production will be 75.3 plus 4 times the number of workers on duty.
4.8

than 0.05 then we are at least 95% confident that workers does help to explain production in the population.
e sample, adding one woker added 4 to production.
do not know what the real relation is in the population.
we are 95% sure that adding one worker will add between 3.2 and 4.8 to production.

duction for each observation in our data set.

between actual production and the prediction from our model.

t our forecast was very accurate.
oduction in the population.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.94
R Square 0.88 Our model explains 88% of the variance in production. This is much better than
Adjusted R Square 0.88 The Adjusted R Square takes into account the number of variables in our mode
Standard Error 16.0 We expect that 95% of the time production will be within two standard errors
Observations 150.0

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 279810.60 93270.20 366.60 0.00
Residual 146 37144.80 254.42
Total 149 316955.39

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.5 12.9 -4.1 0.00 -79.0
Workers 3.0 0.2 15.9 0.00 2.6
Machines 6.1 0.3 23.1 0.00 5.6
Afternoon 28.4 2.8 10.3 0.00 23.0
Our forecast is Production = -53.5 + 3.0 × Workers + 6.1 × Machines + 28.4 × Afternoon
The p-values are all less than 0.05 which means th

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Production Residuals

1 327.8 19.2
2 362.2 -17.2
3 300.6 -14.6
4 348.8 -32.8
5 441.3 24.7
6 324.7 -21.7
7 294.0 6.0
8 419.9 -4.9
9 328.2 2.8
10 258.0 -17.0
11 298.7 -21.7
12 331.4 -13.4
13 352.2 20.8
14 332.0 -26.0
15 324.6 -23.6
16 370.3 10.7
17 313.1 -12.1
18 221.5 13.5
19 409.6 24.4
20 331.9 8.1
21 327.8 -0.8
22 285.4 23.6
23 346.7 -9.7
24 346.2 4.8
25 391.3 -13.3
26 329.0 8.0
27 397.6 31.4
28 428.1 10.9
29 343.7 -13.7
30 303.6 -18.6
31 230.8 32.2
32 371.3 -22.3
33 297.8 -21.8
34 336.9 8.1
35 434.9 8.1
36 363.8 -19.8
37 312.4 -13.4
38 277.6 20.4
39 276.3 9.7
40 304.0 1.0
41 344.0 17.0
42 367.3 -23.3
43 306.8 -4.8
44 338.0 15.0
45 376.6 -10.6
46 348.9 -10.9
47 344.3 -2.3
48 294.7 -26.7
49 291.2 -1.2
50 444.2 -2.2
51 312.9 16.1
52 303.9 -0.9
53 395.4 10.6
54 315.8 0.2
55 306.0 -17.0
56 349.9 1.1
57 249.2 -3.2
58 345.6 5.4
59 356.1 -11.1
60 388.5 6.5
61 321.4 -14.4
62 404.9 17.1
63 282.2 4.8
64 370.0 22.0
65 344.6 -4.6
66 348.7 -24.7
67 336.7 -20.7
68 331.7 -3.7
69 221.7 -1.7
70 400.8 0.2
 71 332.0 16.0
72 270.2 -8.2
73 349.1 -1.1
74 353.6 -10.6
75 224.6 -9.6
76 324.7 -17.7
77 377.4 18.6
78 397.4 14.6
79 264.0 13.0
80 261.8 41.2
81 331.3 5.7
82 285.6 24.4
83 343.9 14.1
84 339.7 18.3
85 279.5 23.5
86 404.7 12.3
87 325.0 23.0
88 306.0 24.0
89 301.4 -0.4
90 319.1 -15.1
91 303.1 24.9
92 365.6 -21.6
93 391.7 14.3
94 324.3 -15.3
95 301.4 18.6
96 303.6 -26.6
97 243.1 -14.1
98 301.8 20.2
99 358.0 20.0
100 367.4 12.6
101 350.3 10.7
102 276.2 -6.2
103 321.4 -17.4
104 338.2 12.8
105 364.2 -18.2
106 336.6 9.4
107 362.6 -19.6
108 278.9 -12.9
109 309.3 -4.3
110 301.8 14.2
111 403.7 9.3
112 358.0 -7.0
113 338.2 1.8
114 358.0 8.0
115 325.2 -14.2
116 322.7 -3.7
117 336.9 4.1
118 330.6 20.4
119 332.0 12.0
120 336.9 -26.9
121 394.7 -17.7
122 414.2 -3.2
123 315.5 10.5
124 351.7 2.3
125 305.0 3.0
126 342.6 9.4
127 346.4 -4.4
128 316.7 1.3
129 264.2 18.8
130 370.2 8.8
131 346.8 -1.8
132 340.5 11.5
133 333.5 -16.5
134 359.3 -16.3
135 297.7 -6.7
136 312.4 17.6
137 362.1 -9.1
138 318.5 -7.5
139 285.1 3.9
140 359.0 -26.0
141 339.9 7.1
142 321.7 18.3
143 344.1 -25.1
144 345.7 19.3
145 304.1 -16.1
146 295.4 -19.4
147 285.6 11.4
148 324.4 -21.4
149 390.2 -18.2
150 312.4 -6.4
 roduction. This is much better than the simple regression.
he number of variables in our model. It is a better way to compare models than the R Square.
will be within two standard errors of our forecast. This value is much less than before, so we can expect more accurate forecasts.

If this is less than 0.05 then we are at least 95% confident that our model does help to explain production in the population.

Upper 95%
-28.0
3.4 In the sample, adding one worker added 3 units to production, accounting for machines in operation and time of
6.6 In the sample, every extra machine in operation added 6.1 units to production, accounting for the number of wo
33.9 In the sample, production averaged 28.4 units more in the afternoon, holding all else constant.
+ 28.4 × Afternoon
re all less than 0.05 which means that each of the variables in our model help to explain production.
more accurate forecasts.

n production in the population.

machines in operation and time of day. We are 95% confident the true impact of an extra worker is between 2.6 and 3.4.
accounting for the number of workers and time of day.
ll else constant.
SUMMARY OUTPUT In this model, we test if the other variables weekend, breakd

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.94
R Square 0.89
Adjusted R Square 0.88 Adding the extra variables into the model does not improve our Adjusted R Squ
Standard Error 15.8
Observations 150.0

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 281279.79 46879.96 187.91 0.00
Residual 143 35675.61 249.48
Total 149 316955.39

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.2 12.8 -4.2 0.00 -78.5
Workers 3.0 0.2 16.0 0.00 2.6
Machines 6.1 0.3 23.2 0.00 5.6
Afternoon 28.4 2.7 10.3 0.00 23.0
Weekend -0.7 2.8 -0.2 0.82 -6.2
Breakdown -12.0 5.8 -2.1 0.04 -23.3
Delivery 5.2 4.2 1.2 0.21 -3.0

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Production Residuals

1 327.4 19.6
2 361.8 -16.8
3 300.2 -14.2
4 336.5 -20.5
5 440.9 25.1
6 324.3 -21.3
7 299.5 0.5
8 420.1 -5.1
9 328.5 2.5
10 258.3 -17.3
11 287.0 -10.0
12 331.7 -13.7
13 352.5 20.5
14 332.3 -26.3
15 324.9 -23.9
16 370.6 10.4
17 301.4 -0.4
18 221.7 13.3
19 409.8 24.2
20 332.2 7.8
21 328.1 -1.1
22 285.0 24.0
23 346.4 -9.4
24 345.8 5.2
25 396.2 -18.2
26 328.6 8.4
27 402.4 26.6
28 428.3 10.7
29 344.0 -14.0
30 303.9 -18.9
31 231.0 32.0
32 376.8 -27.8
33 298.1 -22.1
34 337.2 7.8
35 435.2 7.8
36 364.1 -20.1
37 312.7 -13.7
38 277.9 20.1
39 276.6 9.4
40 292.3 12.7
41 344.3 16.7
42 367.6 -23.6
43 306.4 -4.4
44 337.6 15.4
45 376.3 -10.3
46 348.6 -10.6
47 343.9 -1.9
48 294.3 -26.3
49 296.7 -6.7
50 444.5 -2.5
51 313.2 15.8
52 304.2 -1.2
53 395.6 10.4
54 316.1 -0.1
55 306.3 -17.3
56 350.2 0.8
57 249.5 -3.5
58 345.9 5.1
59 356.3 -11.3
60 376.9 18.1
61 321.7 -14.7
62 405.1 16.9
63 282.5 4.5
64 369.7 22.3
65 344.1 -4.1
66 348.4 -24.4
67 336.4 -20.4
 68 331.3 -3.3
69 221.3 -1.3
70 401.0 0.0
71 332.3 15.7
72 270.5 -8.5
73 354.6 -6.6
74 353.8 -10.8
75 224.8 -9.8
76 325.0 -18.0
77 377.6 18.4
78 397.6 14.4
79 264.3 12.7
80 267.3 35.7
81 336.8 0.2
82 285.9 24.1
83 344.2 13.8
84 340.0 18.0
85 279.1 23.9
86 404.3 12.7
87 324.6 23.4
88 305.6 24.4
89 301.0 0.0
90 312.0 -8.0
91 303.4 24.6
92 365.8 -21.8
93 391.9 14.1
94 324.6 -15.6
95 301.7 18.3
96 303.9 -26.9
97 243.3 -14.3
98 307.3 14.7
99 358.3 19.7
100 373.0 7.0
101 350.5 10.5
102 276.5 -6.5
103 309.7 -5.7
104 343.7 7.3
105 364.5 -18.5
106 336.3 9.7
107 362.2 -19.2
108 283.8 -17.8
109 308.9 -3.9
110 301.4 14.6
111 403.3 9.7
112 358.3 -7.3
113 338.5 1.5
114 363.6 2.4
115 325.5 -14.5
116 323.0 -4.0
117 337.2 3.8
118 330.9 20.1
119 332.3 11.7
120 337.2 -27.2
121 394.9 -17.9
122 414.4 -3.4
123 315.8 10.2
124 340.1 13.9
125 305.3 2.7
126 348.2 3.8
127 346.0 -4.0
128 316.3 1.7
129 263.8 19.2
130 369.9 9.1
131 346.5 -1.5
132 340.1 11.9
133 333.8 -16.8
134 359.5 -16.5
135 298.0 -7.0
136 312.7 17.3
137 362.3 -9.3
138 324.0 -13.0
139 285.4 3.6
140 359.2 -26.2
141 340.2 6.8
142 322.0 18.0
143 344.4 -25.4
144 346.0 19.0
145 304.4 -16.4
146 295.7 -19.7
147 285.9 11.1
148 324.0 -21.0
149 389.8 -17.8
150 312.0 -6.0
he other variables weekend, breakdown and delivery impact production.

oes not improve our Adjusted R Square.

Upper 95%
-27.9
3.4
6.6
33.8
4.9 The P-value for weekend is well above 0.05. The day of the week does not seem to affect production.
-0.6 The P-value is less than 0.05. Breakdowns do seem to affect production when we account for the number of wor
13.5 The P-value for delivery is well above 0.05. Deliveries do not seem to affect production.

We eliminate Weekend and Delivery from our model and run the regression again.
m to affect production.
we account for the number of workers, machines, time of day, etc.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.94
R Square 0.89 Our model predicts 89% of the variance in production.
Adjusted R Square 0.88 The adjusted R Square improved a bit when we removed weekend and delivery
Standard Error 15.8 We expect that 95% of the time production will be within two standard errors
Observations 150.0

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 280870.96 70217.74 282.16 0.00
Residual 145 36084.43 248.86
Total 149 316955.39

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.2 12.8 -4.2 0.00 -78.5
Workers 3.0 0.2 16.1 0.00 2.6
Machines 6.1 0.3 23.3 0.00 5.6
Afternoon 28.2 2.7 10.3 0.00 22.8
Breakdown -11.9 5.7 -2.1 0.04 -23.2
Our forecast is Production = -53.2 + 3.0 × Workers + 6.1 × Machines + 28.2 × Afternoon - 11.9 × Afternoo
All the P-values are less than 0.05 so we are confid

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Production Residuals

1 328.5 18.5
2 362.7 -17.7
3 301.3 -15.3
4 337.8 -21.8
5 441.7 24.3
6 325.4 -22.4
7 294.9 5.1
8 420.4 -5.4
9 328.8 2.2
10 258.7 -17.7
11 287.3 -10.3
12 331.9 -13.9
13 352.9 20.1
14 332.5 -26.5
15 325.4 -24.4
16 371.0 10.0
17 302.0 -1.0
18 222.2 12.8
19 410.3 23.7
20 332.4 7.6
21 328.5 -1.5
22 286.1 22.9
23 347.4 -10.4
24 346.8 4.2
25 392.1 -14.1
26 329.5 7.5
27 398.3 30.7
28 428.7 10.3
29 344.4 -14.4
30 304.3 -19.3
31 231.4 31.6
32 371.8 -22.8
33 298.4 -22.4
34 337.6 7.4
35 435.5 7.5
36 364.7 -20.7
37 313.2 -14.2
38 278.0 20.0
39 277.0 9.0
40 292.7 12.3
41 344.5 16.5
42 368.0 -24.0
43 307.4 -5.4
44 338.5 14.5
45 377.2 -11.2
46 349.7 -11.7
47 344.7 -2.7
48 295.3 -27.3
49 292.0 -2.0
50 444.7 -2.7
51 313.5 15.5
52 304.5 -1.5
53 396.0 10.0
54 316.5 -0.5
55 306.9 -17.9
56 350.5 0.5
57 249.8 -3.8
58 346.5 4.5
59 356.6 -11.6
60 377.4 17.6
61 322.2 -15.2
62 405.3 16.7
63 282.9 4.1
64 370.8 21.2
65 344.8 -4.8
66 349.6 -25.6
67 337.5 -21.5
68 332.3 -4.3
69 222.3 -2.3
 70 401.4 -0.4
71 332.5 15.5
72 270.9 -8.9
73 349.8 -1.8
74 353.9 -10.9
75 225.3 -10.3
76 325.4 -18.4
77 377.9 18.1
78 398.2 13.8
79 264.7 12.3
80 262.4 40.6
81 331.8 5.2
82 286.2 23.8
83 344.5 13.5
84 340.5 17.5
85 280.1 22.9
86 405.2 11.8
87 325.6 22.4
88 306.9 23.1
89 302.0 -1.0
90 307.8 -3.8
91 304.0 24.0
92 365.9 -21.9
93 392.3 13.7
94 325.2 -16.2
95 302.0 18.0
96 304.3 -27.3
97 243.7 -14.7
98 302.2 19.8
99 358.8 19.2
100 368.1 11.9
101 350.7 10.3
102 276.9 -6.9
103 310.4 -6.4
104 338.6 12.4
105 364.9 -18.9
106 337.4 8.6
107 362.9 -19.9
108 279.7 -13.7
109 310.1 -5.1
110 302.2 13.8
111 404.4 8.6
112 358.8 -7.8
113 338.6 1.4
114 358.8 7.2
115 325.7 -14.7
116 323.3 -4.3
117 337.6 3.4
118 331.4 19.6
119 332.5 11.5
120 337.6 -27.6
121 395.3 -18.3
122 414.5 -3.5
123 316.3 9.7
124 340.7 13.3
125 305.3 2.7
126 343.5 8.5
127 347.0 -5.0
128 317.2 0.8
129 264.8 18.2
130 371.0 8.0
131 347.4 -2.4
132 341.0 11.0
133 334.4 -17.4
134 359.7 -16.7
135 298.3 -7.3
136 313.2 16.8
137 362.6 -9.6
138 319.3 -8.3
139 285.9 3.1
140 359.6 -26.6
141 340.6 6.4
142 322.4 17.6
143 344.6 -25.6
144 346.5 18.5
145 304.6 -16.6
146 295.9 -19.9
147 286.2 10.8
148 325.3 -22.3
149 390.4 -18.4
150 313.2 -7.2
we removed weekend and delivery from our model, this suggests that it is a better model over all.
will be within two standard errors of our forecast. This value has improved from the first multiple regression.

Overall, our model helps to predict production because the Significance F is less than 0.05.

Upper 95%
-28.0
3.4 In the sample, adding one worker added 3 units to production, accounting for machines in operation, time of da
6.6 In the sample, every extra machine in operation added 6.1 units to production, holding all else constant.
33.6 In the sample, production averaged 28.2 units more in the afternoon, holding all else constant.
-0.5 In the sample, a breakdown occuring was associated with 11.9 units of lost production, holding all else constant.
+ 28.2 × Afternoon - 11.9 × Afternoon breakdown.
s are less than 0.05 so we are confident that each variable helps to explain production.
machines in operation, time of day and breakdowns. We are 95% confident the true impact of an extra worker is between 2.6 and 3.4.
holding all else constant.
ll else constant.
duction, holding all else constant.
etween 2.6 and 3.4.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.942042
R Square 0.887443
Adjusted R 0.88272
Standard E 15.79493
Observatio 150

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 281279.8 46879.96 187.9109 3.14E-65
Residual 143 35675.61 249.4798
Total 149 316955.4

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -53.22231 12.79926 -4.158232 5.5E-05 -78.52251 -27.9221 -78.52251 -27.9221
Workers 3.002343 0.187607 16.00333 1.11E-33 2.631501 3.373185 2.631501 3.373185
Machines 6.102226 0.262839 23.21662 2.31E-50 5.582675 6.621777 5.582675 6.621777
Afternoon 28.41152 2.746312 10.34534 4.51E-19 22.9829 33.84013 22.9829 33.84013
Breakdown-11.95323 5.750932 -2.078486 0.039452 -23.32105 -0.585407 -23.32105 -0.585407
Weekend -0.654579 2.823923 -0.231798 0.817026 -6.236606 4.927448 -6.236606 4.927448
Delivery 5.242324 4.194367 1.249849 0.213396 -3.048649 13.5333 -3.048649 13.5333
 Forecasts

This page shows how our forecast for production varies as we build more complex models
We will product production for weekday afternoon shift with 60 workers on duty and 30 production machines in operation wi

The forecast is the most likely outcome.

The confidence interval gives us a range of probable outcomes around that forecast.

Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Lower
Just descriptive statistics
Mean 332.5 332.5 240.2
Standard deviation 46.1 We are 95% confident that productio
This is based only on the descriptive

Trend line Forecast

Variable Coefficient Forecast value
Intercept 75.3 1 316.5
Workers 4.0 60

Simple regression Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Variable Coefficient Forecast value Lower
Intercept 75.3 1 316.5 244.0
Workers 4.0 60 We are 95% confident that productio
This is based on the simple regressio
Standard error 36.3

Multiple regression 1 Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Variable Coefficient Forecast value Lower
Intercept -53.5 1 338.1 306.2
Workers 3.0 60 We are 95% confident that productio
Machines 6.1 30 This is based on the first multiple reg
Afternoon 28.4 1

Standard Error 16.0

Multiple regression 3 Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Variable Coefficient Forecast value Lower
Intercept -53.2 1 338.6 307.0
Workers 3.0 60 We are 95% confident that productio
Machines 6.1 30 This is based on the third multiple re
Afternoon 28.2 1
Breakdown -11.9 0

Standard Error 15.8

duction machines in operation with no breakdowns or deliveries.

95% Confidence Interval Lines for chart

Upper X Lower Middle Upper
0 240.2 332.5 424.7
424.7 100 240.2 332.5 424.7
are 95% confident that production will be within this range.
is based only on the descriptive statistics.

95% Confidence Interval Lines for chart

Upper X Lower Middle Upper
389.1 0 2.8 75.3 147.9
are 95% confident that production will be within this range. 100 404.8 477.3 549.9
is based on the simple regression results.

95% Confidence Interval

Upper
370.0
are 95% confident that production will be within this range.
is based on the first multiple regression model.

95% Confidence Interval

Upper
370.1
are 95% confident that production will be within this range.
is based on the third multiple regression model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.942660065406762
R Square 0.888607998912681
Adjusted R Square 0.883901294641385
Standard Error 15.7629069330634
Observations 149

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 281460.321652915 46910.05 188.7962 4.417661E-65
Residual 142 35282.6313672195 248.4692
Total 148 316742.953020134

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.2985738617192 12.773458181517 -4.172603 5.22E-05 -78.54928642
64 3.00214255225134 0.187227178468074 16.03476 1.13E-33 2.6320298075
31 6.10206919486586 0.262305857546361 23.26318 2.73E-50 5.583540092
0 28.6207232013773 2.7457877322523 10.4235 3.03E-19 23.192819826
0 -11.8192553503856 5.74026147101944 -2.05901 0.041321 -23.16666733
1 -1.09562529177265 2.83993533549524 -0.385792 0.700228 -6.709640684
0 5.38591568624056 4.18742054052721 1.286213 0.200462 -2.891823273
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-28.0478613 -78.549286421651 -28.047861301787
3.3722553 2.6320298075488 3.3722552969539
6.6205983 5.58354009197392 6.6205982977578
34.0486266 23.1928198260787 34.048626576676
-0.47184337 -23.166667332624 -0.4718433681472
4.5183901 -6.7096406841861 4.5183901006407
13.6636546 -2.8918232732377 13.663654645719
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9420418321722
R Square 0.8874428135624
Adjusted R Square 0.8827201344112
Standard Error 15.794928658512
Observations 150

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 281279.786033505 46879.96 187.910884 3.13748343E-65
Residual 143 35675.6072998286 249.4798
Total 149 316955.393333333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.222305900365 12.7992627026175 -4.158232 0.00 -78.52250862388
Workers 3.0023430837279 0.18760745507868 16.00333 0.00 2.631500891
Machines 6.1022260524408 0.262838691864963 23.21662 0.00 5.582674860917
Afternoon 28.411515776712 2.74631158624203 10.34534 0.00 22.9829030911
Breakdown -11.953229630322 5.75093196750139 -2.078486 0.04 -23.32105198131
Weekend -0.6545790874687 2.82392329193308 -0.231798 0.82 -6.236606226185
Delivery 5.2423238788661 4.19436702394409 1.249849 0.21 -3.048648692618
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-27.92210317685 -78.5225086239 -27.92210317685
3.373185276455 2.631500891 3.3731852764554
6.621777243964 5.58267486092 6.6217772439644
33.84012846232 22.9829030911 33.840128462321
-0.585407279337 -23.3210519813 -0.585407279337
4.927448051248 -6.23660622619 4.9274480512477
13.53329645035 -3.04864869262 13.53329645035
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.94135698039898
R Square 0.88615296454588
Adjusted R Squar0.88301235667128
Standard Error 15.775238541766
Observations 150

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 280870.961431139 70217.74 282.1597 0.00
Residual 145 36084.4319021947 248.8582
Total 149 316955.393333333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -53.22 12.77 -4.17 0.00 -78.46
Workers 3.01 0.19 16.11 0.00 2.65
Machines 6.09 0.26 23.26 0.00 5.57
Afternoon 28.20 2.74 10.30 0.00 22.79
Breakdown -11.85 5.74 -2.06 0.04 -23.20
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-27.97 -78.46 -27.97
3.38 2.65 3.38
6.61 5.57 6.61
33.61 22.79 33.61
-0.50 -23.20 -0.50
Number Shift Managers Production Workers Machines Afternoon Breakdown Weekend Delivery
1 1 14 347 64 31 0 0 1 0
2 2 15 345 68 30 1 0 1 0
3 3 13 286 59 29 0 0 1 0
4 1 15 316 71 31 0 1 1 0
5 2 15 466 72 41 1 0 1 0
6 3 13 303 65 30 0 0 1 0
7 1 14 300 69 23 0 0 0 1
8 2 15 415 73 37 1 0 0 0
9 3 11 331 56 35 0 0 0 0
10 1 12 241 57 23 0 0 0 0
11 2 11 277 55 26 1 1 0 0
12 3 11 318 53 37 0 0 0 0
13 1 14 373 64 35 0 0 0 0
14 2 12 306 60 29 1 0 0 0
15 3 14 301 67 29 0 0 0 0
16 1 14 381 68 36 0 0 0 0
17 2 15 301 72 20 1 1 0 0
18 3 12 235 55 18 0 0 0 0
19 1 16 434 77 38 0 0 0 0
20 2 13 340 62 28 1 0 0 0
21 3 13 327 64 31 0 0 0 0
22 1 12 309 58 27 0 0 1 0
23 2 15 337 71 26 1 0 1 0
24 3 13 351 62 35 0 0 1 0
25 1 15 378 75 36 0 0 1 1
26 2 12 337 59 29 1 0 1 0
27 3 15 429 73 38 0 0 1 1
28 1 15 439 73 43 0 0 0 0
29 2 15 330 70 26 1 0 0 0
30 3 12 285 60 29 0 0 0 0
31 1 11 263 52 21 0 0 0 0
32 2 14 349 69 31 1 0 0 1
33 3 11 276 54 31 0 0 0 0
34 1 13 345 65 32 0 0 0 0
35 2 16 443 78 37 1 0 0 0
36 3 16 344 76 31 0 0 0 0
37 1 14 299 67 27 0 0 0 0
38 2 11 298 50 25 1 0 0 0
39 3 12 286 57 26 0 0 0 0
40 1 11 305 52 33 0 1 0 0
41 2 14 361 64 29 1 0 0 0
42 3 14 344 67 36 0 0 0 0
43 1 12 302 57 31 0 0 1 0
44 2 13 353 62 29 1 0 1 0
45 3 13 366 64 39 0 0 1 0
46 1 14 338 69 32 0 0 1 0
47 2 12 342 58 32 1 0 1 0
48 3 11 268 55 30 0 0 1 0
49 1 13 290 64 25 0 0 0 1
50 2 15 442 75 40 1 0 0 0
51 3 12 329 57 32 0 0 0 0
52 1 11 303 54 32 0 0 0 0
53 2 15 406 75 32 1 0 0 0
54 3 12 316 60 31 0 0 0 0
55 1 15 289 73 23 0 0 0 0
56 2 14 351 68 28 1 0 0 0
57 3 11 246 50 25 0 0 0 0
58 1 15 351 74 29 0 0 0 0
59 2 14 345 68 29 1 0 0 0
60 3 14 395 70 38 0 1 0 0
61 1 15 307 70 27 0 0 0 0
62 2 14 422 68 37 1 0 0 0
63 3 13 287 61 25 0 0 0 0
64 1 16 392 74 33 0 0 1 0
65 2 11 340 54 34 1 0 1 0
66 3 15 324 73 30 0 0 1 0
67 1 14 316 69 30 0 0 1 0
68 2 14 328 66 26 1 0 1 0
69 3 11 220 51 20 0 0 1 0
70 1 14 401 70 40 0 0 0 0
71 2 12 348 60 29 1 0 0 0
72 3 12 262 57 25 0 0 0 0
73 1 13 348 65 34 0 0 0 1
74 2 12 343 57 34 1 0 0 0
75 3 12 215 54 19 0 0 0 0
76 1 14 307 65 30 0 0 0 0
77 2 14 396 69 32 1 0 0 0
78 3 16 412 77 36 0 0 0 0
79 1 12 277 59 23 0 0 0 0
80 2 13 303 61 17 1 0 0 1
81 3 11 337 55 36 0 0 0 1
82 1 11 310 54 29 0 0 0 0
83 2 13 358 66 28 1 0 0 0
84 3 14 358 70 30 0 0 0 0
85 1 11 303 54 28 0 0 1 0
86 2 14 417 72 35 1 0 1 0
87 3 12 348 59 33 0 0 1 0
88 1 15 330 73 23 0 0 1 0
89 2 12 301 62 23 1 0 1 0
 90 3 11 304 55 34 0 1 1 1
91 1 15 328 70 24 0 0 0 0
92 2 13 344 61 34 1 0 0 0
93 3 15 406 69 39 0 0 0 0
94 1 15 309 73 26 0 0 0 0
95 2 13 320 62 23 1 0 0 0
96 3 13 277 60 29 0 0 0 0
97 1 11 229 50 24 0 0 0 0
98 2 12 322 54 27 1 0 0 1
99 3 15 378 70 33 0 0 0 0
100 1 13 380 65 37 0 0 0 1
101 2 13 361 62 31 1 0 0 0
102 3 12 270 59 25 0 0 0 0
103 1 15 304 70 27 0 1 0 0
104 2 12 351 58 31 1 0 0 1
105 3 14 346 68 35 0 0 0 0
106 1 14 346 71 29 0 0 1 0
107 2 13 343 60 34 1 0 1 0
108 3 14 266 66 22 0 0 1 1
109 1 15 305 68 26 0 0 1 0
110 2 11 316 54 27 1 0 1 0
111 3 15 413 73 39 0 0 1 0
112 1 15 351 70 33 0 0 0 0
113 2 12 340 58 31 1 0 0 0
114 3 14 366 70 33 0 0 0 1
115 1 12 311 55 35 0 0 0 0
116 2 13 319 63 26 1 0 0 0
117 3 13 341 65 32 0 0 0 0
118 1 15 351 69 29 0 0 0 0
119 2 13 344 60 29 1 0 0 0
120 3 14 310 65 32 0 0 0 0
121 1 14 377 70 39 0 0 0 0
122 2 13 411 65 40 1 0 0 0
123 3 14 326 66 28 0 0 0 0
124 1 16 354 74 30 0 1 0 0
125 2 10 308 51 29 1 0 0 0
126 3 15 352 73 29 0 0 0 1
127 1 12 342 58 37 0 0 1 0
128 2 12 318 61 26 1 0 1 0
129 3 11 283 55 25 0 0 1 0
130 1 15 379 70 35 0 0 1 0
131 2 14 345 69 27 1 0 1 0
132 3 11 352 54 38 0 0 1 0
133 1 15 317 72 28 0 0 0 0
134 2 13 343 65 31 1 0 0 0
135 3 11 291 56 30 0 0 0 0
136 1 14 330 67 27 0 0 0 0
137 2 14 353 70 29 1 0 0 0
138 3 14 311 67 28 0 0 0 1
139 1 13 289 64 24 0 0 0 0
140 2 15 333 71 28 1 0 0 0
141 3 13 347 66 32 0 0 0 0
142 1 13 340 64 30 0 0 0 0
143 2 13 319 62 30 1 0 0 0
144 3 15 365 72 30 0 0 0 0
145 1 11 288 50 34 0 0 0 0
146 2 12 276 60 23 1 0 0 0
147 3 12 297 54 29 0 0 0 0
148 1 14 303 71 27 0 0 1 0
149 2 12 372 57 40 1 0 1 0
150 3 14 306 67 27 0 0 1 0
Variable
Number
Shift
Weekend
Production
Factory Workers
Managers
Machines
Breakdown
Delivery
Afternoon
Definition
Observation number
Time of day. One indicates a morning shift, two indicates an afternoon shift, three indicates an evening shift.
Weekend shifts are given a value of one.
Number of air conditioners produced
Number of workers on duty
Number of managers on duty
Number of production machines online
A value of one indicates that at least one machine broke down.
A value of one indicates that a delivery of parts occurred.
A value of one indicates an afternoon shift.
Scatter plot Correlation
No obvious relationship
Production seems higher in the afternoon No obvious relationship
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship

Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production

Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production but multicollinearity with workers
Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship
Maybe a positive relationship
rity with workers