Scatter plot of workers versus production

500
This scatter plot shows the relationship
between the number of workers and
amount of production in the sample.
450

400
Production

350

300

250

200
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Workers
 Scatter plot of workers versus production
500 Production is highest when there are many workers
and lowest when there are few workers.
The trendline shows that relationship.
We can expect production to be along the trend line.
450
This is the equation of the trend line

400
f(x) = 4.01996518980369 x + 75.329560025557
Production

R² = 0.385696593213043
350

300
Trend line
250

200
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Workers
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.62
R Square 0.39 Variance in workers explains 39% of the variance in production.
Adjusted R Square 0.38
Standard Error 36.3 We expect that 95% of the time production will be within two standard errors
Observations 150.0

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 122248.62 122248.62 92.92 0.00
Residual 148 194706.78 1315.59
Total 149 316955.39

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 75.3 26.8 2.8 0.01 22.3
Workers 4.0 0.4 9.6 0.00 3.2
In the sample, adding one worker added 4 units to production.
If the p-value is less than 0.05 then we are at
In the sample, adding one wok
RESIDUAL OUTPUT We do not know what the real
But we are 95% sure that addin
Observation Predicted Production Residuals
1 332.6 14.4 This table shows the predicted production for each observati
2 348.7 -3.7 Production is predicted based on the model.
3 312.5 -26.5 The residuals show the difference between actual production
4 360.7 -44.7 A residual close to zero means that our forecast was very acc
5 364.8 101.2
6 336.6 -33.6
7 352.7 -52.7
8 368.8 46.2
9 300.4 30.6
10 304.5 -63.5
11 296.4 -19.4
12 288.4 29.6
13 332.6 40.4
14 316.5 -10.5
15 344.7 -43.7
16 348.7 32.3
17 364.8 -63.8
18 296.4 -61.4
19 384.9 49.1
20 324.6 15.4
21 332.6 -5.6
22 308.5 0.5
23 360.7 -23.7
24 324.6 26.4
25 376.8 1.2
26 312.5 24.5
27 368.8 60.2
28 368.8 70.2
29 356.7 -26.7
30 316.5 -31.5
31 284.4 -21.4
32 352.7 -3.7
33 292.4 -16.4
34 336.6 8.4
35 388.9 54.1
36 380.8 -36.8
37 344.7 -45.7
38 276.3 21.7
39 304.5 -18.5
40 284.4 20.6
41 332.6 28.4
42 344.7 -0.7
43 304.5 -2.5
44 324.6 28.4
45 332.6 33.4
46 352.7 -14.7
47 308.5 33.5
48 296.4 -28.4
49 332.6 -42.6
50 376.8 65.2
51 304.5 24.5
52 292.4 10.6
53 376.8 29.2
54 316.5 -0.5
55 368.8 -79.8
56 348.7 2.3
57 276.3 -30.3
58 372.8 -21.8
59 348.7 -3.7
60 356.7 38.3
61 356.7 -49.7
62 348.7 73.3
63 320.5 -33.5
64 372.8 19.2
65 292.4 47.6
66 368.8 -44.8
67 352.7 -36.7
68 340.6 -12.6
69 280.3 -60.3
70 356.7 44.3
71 316.5 31.5
72 304.5 -42.5
 73 336.6 11.4
74 304.5 38.5
75 292.4 -77.4
76 336.6 -29.6
77 352.7 43.3
78 384.9 27.1
79 312.5 -35.5
80 320.5 -17.5
81 296.4 40.6
82 292.4 17.6
83 340.6 17.4
84 356.7 1.3
85 292.4 10.6
86 364.8 52.2
87 312.5 35.5
88 368.8 -38.8
89 324.6 -23.6
90 296.4 7.6
91 356.7 -28.7
92 320.5 23.5
93 352.7 53.3
94 368.8 -59.8
95 324.6 -4.6
96 316.5 -39.5
97 276.3 -47.3
98 292.4 29.6
99 356.7 21.3
100 336.6 43.4
101 324.6 36.4
102 312.5 -42.5
103 356.7 -52.7
104 308.5 42.5
105 348.7 -2.7
106 360.7 -14.7
107 316.5 26.5
108 340.6 -74.6
109 348.7 -43.7
110 292.4 23.6
111 368.8 44.2
112 356.7 -5.7
113 308.5 31.5
114 356.7 9.3
115 296.4 14.6
116 328.6 -9.6
117 336.6 4.4
118 352.7 -1.7
119 316.5 27.5
120 336.6 -26.6
121 356.7 20.3
122 336.6 74.4
123 340.6 -14.6
124 372.8 -18.8
125 280.3 27.7
126 368.8 -16.8
127 308.5 33.5
128 320.5 -2.5
129 296.4 -13.4
130 356.7 22.3
131 352.7 -7.7
132 292.4 59.6
133 364.8 -47.8
134 336.6 6.4
135 300.4 -9.4
136 344.7 -14.7
137 356.7 -3.7
138 344.7 -33.7
139 332.6 -43.6
140 360.7 -27.7
141 340.6 6.4
142 332.6 7.4
143 324.6 -5.6
144 364.8 0.2
145 276.3 11.7
146 316.5 -40.5
147 292.4 4.6
148 360.7 -57.7
149 304.5 67.5
150 344.7 -38.7
ithin two standard errors of our forecast.

If this is less than 0.05 then we are at least 95% confident that workers does help to explain production in the population.

Upper 95%
128.4 Our forecast is that production will be 75.3 plus 4 times the number of workers on duty.
4.8

than 0.05 then we are at least 95% confident that workers does help to explain production in the population.
e sample, adding one woker added 4 to production.
do not know what the real relation is in the population.
we are 95% sure that adding one worker will add between 3.2 and 4.8 to production.

duction for each observation in our data set.

between actual production and the prediction from our model.

t our forecast was very accurate.
oduction in the population.
 Scatter plot of workers versus production
500 The new forecast line and 95% confidence interval
are built based on the simple linear regression Upper boundary
model.
By taking into account the number of workers, we
can build better forecasts for production.
450

400
Production

Forecast line
350

300
Lower boundary
250

200
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Workers
 Forecasts

This page shows how our forecast for production varies as we build more complex models
We will product production for weekday afternoon shift with 60 workers on duty and 30 production machines in operation wi

The forecast is the most likely outcome.

The confidence interval gives us a range of probable outcomes around that forecast.

Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Lower
Just descriptive statistics
Mean 332.5 332.5 240.2
Standard deviation 46.1 We are 95% confident that productio
This is based only on the descriptive

Trend line Forecast

Variable Coefficient Forecast value
Intercept 75.3 1 316.5
Workers 4.0 60

Simple regression Forecast 95% Confidence Interval

Variable Coefficient Forecast value Lower
Intercept 75.3 1 316.5 244.0
Workers 4.0 60 We are 95% confident that productio
This is based on the simple regressio
Standard error 36.3
duction machines in operation with no breakdowns or deliveries.

95% Confidence Interval Lines for chart

Upper X Lower Middle Upper
0 240.2 332.5 424.7
424.7 100 240.2 332.5 424.7
are 95% confident that production will be within this range.
is based only on the descriptive statistics.

95% Confidence Interval Lines for chart

Upper X Lower Middle Upper
389.1 0 2.8 75.3 147.9
are 95% confident that production will be within this range. 100 404.8 477.3 549.9
is based on the simple regression results.
Number Shift Weekend Production Workers Managers Machines Breakdown Delivery
1 1 1 347 64 14 31 0 0
2 2 1 345 68 15 30 0 0
3 3 1 286 59 13 29 0 0
4 1 1 316 71 15 31 1 0
5 2 1 466 72 15 41 0 0
6 3 1 303 65 13 30 0 0
7 1 0 300 69 14 23 0 1
8 2 0 415 73 15 37 0 0
9 3 0 331 56 11 35 0 0
10 1 0 241 57 12 23 0 0
11 2 0 277 55 11 26 1 0
12 3 0 318 53 11 37 0 0
13 1 0 373 64 14 35 0 0
14 2 0 306 60 12 29 0 0
15 3 0 301 67 14 29 0 0
16 1 0 381 68 14 36 0 0
17 2 0 301 72 15 20 1 0
18 3 0 235 55 12 18 0 0
19 1 0 434 77 16 38 0 0
20 2 0 340 62 13 28 0 0
21 3 0 327 64 13 31 0 0
22 1 1 309 58 12 27 0 0
23 2 1 337 71 15 26 0 0
24 3 1 351 62 13 35 0 0
25 1 1 378 75 15 36 0 1
26 2 1 337 59 12 29 0 0
27 3 1 429 73 15 38 0 1
28 1 0 439 73 15 43 0 0
29 2 0 330 70 15 26 0 0
30 3 0 285 60 12 29 0 0
31 1 0 263 52 11 21 0 0
32 2 0 349 69 14 31 0 1
33 3 0 276 54 11 31 0 0
34 1 0 345 65 13 32 0 0
35 2 0 443 78 16 37 0 0
36 3 0 344 76 16 31 0 0
37 1 0 299 67 14 27 0 0
38 2 0 298 50 11 25 0 0
39 3 0 286 57 12 26 0 0
40 1 0 305 52 11 33 1 0
41 2 0 361 64 14 29 0 0
42 3 0 344 67 14 36 0 0
43 1 1 302 57 12 31 0 0
44 2 1 353 62 13 29 0 0
45 3 1 366 64 13 39 0 0
46 1 1 338 69 14 32 0 0
47 2 1 342 58 12 32 0 0
48 3 1 268 55 11 30 0 0
49 1 0 290 64 13 25 0 1
50 2 0 442 75 15 40 0 0
51 3 0 329 57 12 32 0 0
52 1 0 303 54 11 32 0 0
53 2 0 406 75 15 32 0 0
54 3 0 316 60 12 31 0 0
55 1 0 289 73 15 23 0 0
56 2 0 351 68 14 28 0 0
57 3 0 246 50 11 25 0 0
58 1 0 351 74 15 29 0 0
59 2 0 345 68 14 29 0 0
60 3 0 395 70 14 38 1 0
61 1 0 307 70 15 27 0 0
62 2 0 422 68 14 37 0 0
63 3 0 287 61 13 25 0 0
64 1 1 392 74 16 33 0 0
65 2 1 340 54 11 34 0 0
66 3 1 324 73 15 30 0 0
67 1 1 316 69 14 30 0 0
68 2 1 328 66 14 26 0 0
69 3 1 220 51 11 20 0 0
70 1 0 401 70 14 40 0 0
71 2 0 348 60 12 29 0 0
72 3 0 262 57 12 25 0 0
73 1 0 348 65 13 34 0 1
74 2 0 343 57 12 34 0 0
75 3 0 215 54 12 19 0 0
76 1 0 307 65 14 30 0 0
77 2 0 396 69 14 32 0 0
78 3 0 412 77 16 36 0 0
79 1 0 277 59 12 23 0 0
80 2 0 303 61 13 17 0 1
81 3 0 337 55 11 36 0 1
82 1 0 310 54 11 29 0 0
83 2 0 358 66 13 28 0 0
84 3 0 358 70 14 30 0 0
85 1 1 303 54 11 28 0 0
86 2 1 417 72 14 35 0 0
87 3 1 348 59 12 33 0 0
88 1 1 330 73 15 23 0 0
89 2 1 301 62 12 23 0 0
 90 3 1 304 55 11 34 1 1
91 1 0 328 70 15 24 0 0
92 2 0 344 61 13 34 0 0
93 3 0 406 69 15 39 0 0
94 1 0 309 73 15 26 0 0
95 2 0 320 62 13 23 0 0
96 3 0 277 60 13 29 0 0
97 1 0 229 50 11 24 0 0
98 2 0 322 54 12 27 0 1
99 3 0 378 70 15 33 0 0
100 1 0 380 65 13 37 0 1
101 2 0 361 62 13 31 0 0
102 3 0 270 59 12 25 0 0
103 1 0 304 70 15 27 1 0
104 2 0 351 58 12 31 0 1
105 3 0 346 68 14 35 0 0
106 1 1 346 71 14 29 0 0
107 2 1 343 60 13 34 0 0
108 3 1 266 66 14 22 0 1
109 1 1 305 68 15 26 0 0
110 2 1 316 54 11 27 0 0
111 3 1 413 73 15 39 0 0
112 1 0 351 70 15 33 0 0
113 2 0 340 58 12 31 0 0
114 3 0 366 70 14 33 0 1
115 1 0 311 55 12 35 0 0
116 2 0 319 63 13 26 0 0
117 3 0 341 65 13 32 0 0
118 1 0 351 69 15 29 0 0
119 2 0 344 60 13 29 0 0
120 3 0 310 65 14 32 0 0
121 1 0 377 70 14 39 0 0
122 2 0 411 65 13 40 0 0
123 3 0 326 66 14 28 0 0
124 1 0 354 74 16 30 1 0
125 2 0 308 51 10 29 0 0
126 3 0 352 73 15 29 0 1
127 1 1 342 58 12 37 0 0
128 2 1 318 61 12 26 0 0
129 3 1 283 55 11 25 0 0
130 1 1 379 70 15 35 0 0
131 2 1 345 69 14 27 0 0
132 3 1 352 54 11 38 0 0
133 1 0 317 72 15 28 0 0
134 2 0 343 65 13 31 0 0
135 3 0 291 56 11 30 0 0
136 1 0 330 67 14 27 0 0
137 2 0 353 70 14 29 0 0
138 3 0 311 67 14 28 0 1
139 1 0 289 64 13 24 0 0
140 2 0 333 71 15 28 0 0
141 3 0 347 66 13 32 0 0
142 1 0 340 64 13 30 0 0
143 2 0 319 62 13 30 0 0
144 3 0 365 72 15 30 0 0
145 1 0 288 50 11 34 0 0
146 2 0 276 60 12 23 0 0
147 3 0 297 54 12 29 0 0
148 1 1 303 71 14 27 0 0
149 2 1 372 57 12 40 0 0
150 3 1 306 67 14 27 0 0
Variable
Number
Shift
Weekend
Production
Factory Workers
Managers
Machines
Breakdown
Delivery
Afternoon
Definition
Observation number
Time of day. One indicates a morning shift, two indicates an afternoon shift, three indicates an evening shift.
Weekend shifts are given a value of one.
Number of air conditioners produced
Number of workers on duty
Number of managers on duty
Number of production machines online
A value of one indicates that at least one machine broke down.
A value of one indicates that a delivery of parts occurred.
A value of one indicates an afternoon shift.
Scatter plot Correlation
No obvious relationship
Production seems higher in the afternoon No obvious relationship
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship

Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production

Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production but multicollinearity with workers
Positive relationship with production Positive relationship with production
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship
No obvious relationship No obvious relationship
Maybe a positive relationship
rity with workers