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Lesson 1 - Overview of Modeling and Simulation

Simulation involves creating a model of a system to study how it behaves over time. It allows experimenting with changes to better understand complex systems without impacting the real system. Simulation is useful when a system is too complex for analytical solutions or when exploring designs and policies. While it provides insights, simulation also requires specialized skills and resources.

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victor phiri
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44 views

Lesson 1 - Overview of Modeling and Simulation

Simulation involves creating a model of a system to study how it behaves over time. It allows experimenting with changes to better understand complex systems without impacting the real system. Simulation is useful when a system is too complex for analytical solutions or when exploring designs and policies. While it provides insights, simulation also requires specialized skills and resources.

Uploaded by

victor phiri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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What is Simulation?

● Simulation is like a pretend game where we mimic how real things work.
● We can do this with pen and paper or using a computer. The idea is to create a
fake version of a system and then watch how it behaves to learn about the real
system.
● When we study a system over time, we create a simulation model. This model
is like a blueprint where we make assumptions about how the system works.
● These assumptions are written down using maths, logic, and symbols to
describe the relationships between different parts of the system.
● Once we have our model, we can ask "what if" questions to see how changes
might affect the real system. This helps us make decisions, especially when
designing new systems or improving existing ones.
● Sometimes, we can solve these models using maths techniques like calculus or
probability. This gives us numbers that show how well the system performs.
● But often, real systems are too complicated for this. In those cases, we use
computer simulations to imitate how the system behaves over time.
● We collect data from these simulations just like we would if we were observing
a real system.
● This data helps us understand how the system works and how different
changes might affect its performance.
● By using simulation modelling, we can better understand complex systems and
make smarter decisions about them.
● It's like playing with a model of a car before building the real thing, helping us
avoid mistakes and improve outcomes.

When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool

● Simulation has become a widely embraced tool in operations research and


systems analysis due to advancements in technology and methodologies.
● Understanding when simulation is the right tool to use is essential for effective
problem-solving and decision-making. Here are some circumstances where
simulation is appropriate:

1. Studying Complex Systems: Simulation enables the study and experimentation


of internal interactions within complex systems or subsystems.
2. Modelling Changes: Informational, organisational, and environmental changes
can be simulated to observe their effects on a model's behaviour.
3. System Improvement: Insights gained during the design of a simulation model
can suggest improvements for the system under investigation.
4. Variable Analysis: Changing simulation inputs and observing outputs can
provide valuable insights into the importance of variables and their
interactions.
5. Educational Purposes: Simulation serves as a pedagogical tool to reinforce
analytical solution methodologies.
6. Design and Policy Experimentation: Simulation allows experimentation with
new designs or policies before implementation, aiding in preparation for
potential outcomes.
7. Verification of Analytical Solutions: Simulation can be used to verify analytical
solutions obtained through other means.
8. Determining Machine Requirements: Simulating different capabilities for a
machine helps in determining its requirements.
9. Training: Simulation models designed for training facilitate learning without the
cost and disruption of on-the-job instruction.
10. Visualisation through Animation: Animation of simulated operations allows
visualisation of the system, aiding in planning and decision-making.
11. Dealing with Complexity: Modern systems are often too complex to be treated
analytically, making simulation necessary for understanding internal
interactions.
When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

● While simulation is a powerful tool, there are situations where it may not be the
best approach. Here are some guidelines for when simulation might not be
appropriate:

1. Common Sense Solutions: Simulation should not be used when the problem
can be solved straightforwardly using common sense.
2. Analytical Solutions: If the problem can be solved using analytical methods,
simulation may not be necessary.
3. Cost Considerations: If direct experiments are less expensive than simulation
and provide adequate results, simulation may not be justified.
4. Costs vs. Savings: If the costs of conducting a simulation exceed potential
savings, simulation may not be appropriate.
5. Resource and Time Constraints: Simulation should not be pursued if there are
insufficient resources or time available to complete the study.
6. Data Availability: If necessary data for simulation is unavailable, simulation may
not be advisable.
7. Verification and Validation Challenges: If there are challenges in verifying and
validating the simulation model, simulation may not be suitable.
8. Unrealistic Expectations: If there are unreasonable expectations or an
overestimation of the power of simulation, it may not be the right tool.
9. Complex System Behavior: If system behaviour is too complex or cannot be
accurately defined, simulation may not be appropriate, especially when dealing
with human behaviour.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation

● Simulation is a powerful tool in problem-solving and decision-making, as it


closely mimics real-world scenarios, providing insights that are valuable for
both existing systems and those in the design stage.
● However, like any method, it has its advantages and disadvantages.
Advantages:

1. Exploration without Disruption: New policies, procedures, or designs can be


explored without disrupting ongoing operations of the real system.
2. Risk-Free Testing: New hardware designs or layouts can be tested without
committing resources for their acquisition, minimising risk.
3. Feasibility Testing: Hypotheses about certain phenomena can be tested for
feasibility, providing valuable insights into system behaviour.
4. Time Manipulation: Time can be compressed or expanded to observe system
behaviour at different speeds, facilitating analysis.
5. Variable Interaction Insight: Simulation provides insight into the interaction of
variables within the system, aiding in understanding complex relationships.
6. Variable Importance Identification: It helps in understanding the importance of
variables to the system's performance, guiding decision-making.
7. Bottleneck Analysis: Bottlenecks can be identified to discover areas where
delays occur excessively, facilitating process optimization.
8. Operational Understanding: Simulation helps in understanding how the system
operates in reality, rather than how individuals perceive it, leading to more
informed decisions.
9. Scenario Analysis: "What if" questions can be answered, particularly useful in
designing new systems, allowing exploration of various scenarios.

Disadvantages:

1. Specialised Training: Model building requires specialised training and


experience, making it an art that develops over time.
2. Interpretation Challenges: Simulation results can be difficult to interpret due to
randomness, making it hard to distinguish between system interrelationships
and random fluctuations.
3. Resource Intensive: Simulation modelling and analysis can be time-consuming
and expensive, requiring sufficient resources to ensure adequacy.
4. Over-reliance on Simulation: Simulation is sometimes used when an analytical
solution is possible or preferable, leading to unnecessary complexity and cost.

● In defence of simulation, advancements in simulation software, output-analysis


capabilities, and faster computing have mitigated some of these
disadvantages.
● Additionally, closed-form models ( a model for which a solution can be
obtained using algebraic or calculus techniques, without the need for iterative
computation or approximation) often cannot analyse the complexity of
real-world systems encountered in practice, making simulation a valuable tool
despite its challenges.

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