Whitepaper - Destination Analysis Q3 2011
Whitepaper - Destination Analysis Q3 2011
Whitepaper - Destination Analysis Q3 2011
Table of Contents
Q3 Travel Whitepaper UK Destination Analysis Table of Contents ........................................................... 2 Introduction ................................................................... 3 Summary & Recommendations ...................................... 4 Hotel Destination Analysis .............................................. 5 Domestic Hotel Destination Trends .......................... 5 Foreign Hotel Destination Trends ............................. 6 Full list of Hotel Destination Analysis ........................ 7 Air Travel Destination Analysis ....................................... 8 Foreign Air Travel Destination Trends ....................... 8 City Break Air Travel Destination Trends................... 9 IATA Airport Code Trends .......................................... 9 Full list of Air Travel Destinations .............................. 10 Holiday Destination Analysis .......................................... 11 Top 10 Holiday Destinations ..................................... 11 Seasonality profiles of top growing destinations ...... 12 Biggest moving Holiday Destinations ........................ 12 Country names as Holiday Destinations.................... 13 Full list of Holiday Destinations ................................. 14 Car Hire Destination Analysis .......................................... 15 Top Domestic Car Hire Destinations ......................... 15 Foreign Car Hire Destination trends .......................... 16 Car Hire Query composition and growth .................. 16 Full list of Car Hire Destinations ................................ 17 Methodology ................................................................. 18
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Introduction
Q3 Travel Whitepaper UK Destination Analysis
Global Recession, political unrest, a lot of snow, two ash clouds, and a rather big weddingwhere to start?
The past 24 months have been difficult for the UK Travel industry. After the initial low when the recession first hit, 2010 was expected to be a better year. But between the snow and ash cloud we never saw fruition of the peak season. By the time the snow storms of late 2010 arrived, we were ready for a break and looked forward to a robust 2011. January 2011 looked great, with a stellar few weeks and excellent query volumes and the bookings that followed. Alas, that was short lived as sales ended and bookings dropped. Will and Kate had their wedding, Easter followed and everyone was offline as Google saw query volumes dip. Some early good weather following Easter kept query volumes subdued and before you know it, 2011 was half gone. The world experienced various political uprisings, which played havoc in the holiday market, another Ash Cloud and a lates market that was shorter than anyone ever expected. Here we are in October with our heads still spinning. With all of that in mind, it can be difficult to know where to start to try and understand the behaviour of British tourists. This Whitepaper is an attempt to go beyond the usual trends and graphs that show the top level seasonality of the different travel products, and delve a bit deeper to try to help you understand your customers and align your strategy to those trends. Using Googles internal query data, we have compiled the top searched destinations per product, and where possible, we have tried to understand the trends in light of other research and publications available. We have provided some details on the methodology used, and referenced any other material so that you can look at both our data, and also the data that influenced our conclusions. We hope you find the information insightful and useful, and of course, please share your thoughts and feedback it is as welcome as always.
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Suggested actions resulting from this paper to help you achieve your goals in 2012
Sub Vertical Key Destinations & Recommended Actions
London: Expect 2012 to be a big year for London due to the Olympics. Weve already seen a surge in interest and January 2012 is likely to be a huge period for this destination. Ensure budgets are uncapped for this busy period and Ad Texts are optimised with Olympic-specific call-to-actions to reflect user intent towards domestic tourism. Sharm El Sheikh: As stability returns to Egypt it is likely that interest will also return to pre 2011 levels. Ensure that budgets will be adjusted for this traditionally popular holiday destination. City Breaks: As the late summer season has truly ended, focus on city break destinations such as New York, Copenhagen, Berlin and Edinburgh. Increase CPCs on these destinations to ensure top positions during the AutumnWinter period when City Breaks are more popular. Egypt/Sharm el Sheikh: Just as in the Hotels sector, interest in Sharm el Sheikh in 2012 is likely to return. Allow for additional traffic through increased budgets. IATA Codes: Search queries on Airport codes have increased five fold. Ensure full coverage of these terms and optimise Ad Texts to capture the opportunity going forward. Short Haul Destinations: Our analysis indicates that 2011 has seen a clear shift towards short haul holiday destinations. Reduced disposable income and a weaker pound have made British travellers more likely to research short haul holidays than in 2010. Sharm el Sheikh: Just as for Air Travel and Hotels, Sharm el Sheikh and Egypt are seeing renewed interest in late 2011, so allow for additional budgets for these destinations in 2012. France: 2011 was a big year for Holiday queries related to France as a destination. Allow for additional budget in January on this destination and direct traffic to high quality landing pages for French destinations. Domestic Airports: Car hire queries related to domestic airport locations have seen the greatest increase in query volumes YoY. Search terms containing destination names have not seen similar levels of growth. Miami/Florida: Similar to trends in the other Sub-Verticals, Miami and Florida have seen large increases in both queries and rankings YoY this destination should continue to perform in 2012. Brand Queries Driving Growth: Branded queries have been driving the majority of the 2011 Car Hire query growth, growing 19% YoY. Ensure full coverage of generic, top level queries which cover the upper levels of the search funnel in order to drive brand awareness further along the funnel and closer to the point of purchase.
Hotels
Air Travel
Holidays
Car Hire
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Destination London Brighton Edinburgh Blackpool Paris Manchester Amsterdam Liverpool Bath New York
In August 2011, The Office for National Statistics reported a drop in the numbers of visitors abroad for the fourth consecutive year since 2006.1 The weak Pound (1 = 1.46 in 2009, but only 1.17 in 2010), coupled with repeated disruption to Air Travel and political unrest in the Middle East and Africa contributed greatly to an increase in domestic tourism. This is reflected in the analysis above, with double digit growth in all but one of the top domestic Hotel destinations. With the decline in visits abroad, we can see that London continues to be the most searched for Hotel destination, with queries growing by 51% YoY and accounting for almost 15% of Hotel destination queries. This growing interest in London is likely to be due to the onset of research for accommodation for the 2012 Olympics. Edinburgh has managed to maintain its position, and even grow its share of queries - this can likely be attributed to the citys focus on hosting corporate events.2 Other notable movements in Domestic Destinations include Liverpool, Cardiff, Glasgow, Newcastle and Gatwick Airport all with double digit growth in queries and additional query share YoY.
Top 5 Domestic Movers Based on YTD Query Volumes Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 +19% 8 10 +2 15 2.19% 2.07% +26% 11 16 +5 13 1.90% 1.69% +21% 14 17 +3 12 1.80% 1.68% +22% 17 19 +2 10 1.55% 1.42% +29% 24 27 +3 7 1.05% 0.92%
1. 2.
www.statistics.gov.uk http://www.hotelindustry.co.uk/2011/04/mice-industry2011/
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Amsterdam leads growth in foreign destinations, but New York and Dubai fall behind
Looking at the trends in the top ten foreign destinations, we can see that Paris remains the fifth most searched destination in the Hotel category for UK users and has seen a 14% YoY query th increase. Amsterdam is the second most popular foreign destination, ranked 7 overall and has seen 18% YoY query volume growth. The Hotel Rate Parity Trends Study 2011, identified Amsterdam as the city with the lowest parity in Hotel prices when comparing offers on a Hotel brands website and an online aggregator. According to the research, for 80% of bookings it is cheaper to book an Amsterdam Hotel via an online aggregator than via the Hotel brand directly.3
Destination Paris Amsterdam New York Dublin Barcelona Dubai Las Vegas Rome Benidorm Ibiza Top 10 Foreign Destinations Based on YTD Query Volumes Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 +14% 5 5 0 21 3.11% 3.07% +18% 7 8 +1 17 2.46% 2.34% -9% 10 7 -3 13 1.96% 2.42% +8% 13 13 0 12 1.81% 1.88% -1% 15 12 -3 11 1.67% 1.89% -3% 18 15 -3 10 1.48% 1.71% +14% 19 18 -1 10 1.47% 1.45% +5% 22 21 -1 9 1.27% 1.35% +22% 25 30 +5 7 0.97% 0.89% +18% 26 26 0 7 0.96% 0.92%
The decline in New York queries is surprising as Air Travel related queries for New York have seen 70% growth YoY. It seems that while users are searching for New York flights, the same cannot be said for Hotel queries.4 The strong query growth in Dublin is a likely result of the online and offline efforts of Filte Ireland, an organization to promote tourism in Ireland. Even though Dublins overall query share has remained roughly the same, it could retain its position within the competitive environment of short-haul destinations. Las Vegas has seen very healthy growth, which would be expected given the growth it has th experienced in terms of Air Travel queries, again discussed later on. Las Vegas is ranked 19 on both the Hotel and Air Travel Destination Analyses, and has seen double digit growth in both areas, although a slight decline in rank in Hotels. Although not listed here, Sharm el Sheikh has rd dropped by over 50 places to 103 in our rankings. We can attribute this to the political unrest in Egypt earlier this year. Although the drop in hotel queries is quite dramatic (-45% YoY), this is not quite as severe across other areas such as flights and holidays, which are covered in the next section. In Table 4 on the next page we see the entire list of the top 50 hotel destinations. When looking past the top ranking destinations discussed above, the analysis shows a proportionally stronger query growth for destinations with smaller market share. The data suggest that users are becoming more and more specific when researching their destination and therefore driving stronger query growth to smaller UK as well as international destinations. Advertisers should ensure to meet this expanded query behaviour and cover a conclusive keyword universe for their underlying inventory. Q3 Travel Whitepaper 6
3.
4. 5.
Published in September 2011 by Hotel News Resource, a leading online information and knowledge base for the hospitality & travel industries http://www.hotelnewsresource.com/ar ticle57895.html http://www.hitwise.com/uk/registratio n-pages/quarterly-travel-review http://www.failteireland.ie/Information -Centre/Press-Releases/2011/DublinSet-to-Benefit-from-Growth-inTourism-in-20
Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Hotel related search queries combined with individual destination names
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Destination New York Amsterdam Malaga Florida Paris Dublin London Dubai Barcelona Alicante
The growth in queries for New York is most interesting, growing more than 70% YoY, and growth in share of queries increased by almost 4.5 percentage points. According to Hitwises latest Travel Quarterly Review, British Airways have grown market share in 2011, the majority of which is down to increased traffic on New York and Las Vegas routes. Queries for Las Vegas are up 32% YoY and share of queries has grown by 0.2 of a percentage point. 6 As discussed in the Hotel analysis, Dublin is performing well due to high visibility from destination marketing organisations and has grown share of queries by 0.1 of a percentage point. Although Hotel queries for Amsterdam have grown by 19% YoY, Air Travel queries for Amsterdam have declined by 3% YoY, and share of queries has decreased by 7%. City break destinations have widely seen strong growth YoY, and the Post Offices annual survey of holiday costs indicates that costs have decreased in Dublin, Rome, Berlin, Paris, New York and Copenhagen all of these destinations have shown strong growth in queries YoY.
City Break Destinations wiht Decreased Costs7 7 City Break Destinations with Decreased Costs Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 +71% 1 1 0 100 13.67% 9.25% +17% 5 5 0 23 3.14% 3.09% +20% 6 6 0 22 3.04% 2.92% +16% 13 14 +1 16 2.13% 2.12% +18% 21 23 +2 8 1.13% 1.11% +23% 64 73 +9 3 0.45% 0.45%
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City break destinations on the rise for the Autumn/Winter Market 2011
We looked at the seasonality profiles of some key city break destinations in Autumn/Winter 2010 and saw that peak queries peaked in October around half-term. In the graph below, we can see that last year, New Yorks autumn peak occurred at the end of September, Edinburgh shortly after that, followed by Manchester and Berlin. Copenhagen saw its peak in November, making it the latest peaking city break destination.
2011 City Break Peaks
8.
http://www.hitwise.com/uk/registratio n-pages/quarterly-travel-review
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Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Flight related search queries combined with individual destination names
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Top 10 destination rankings remain unchanged, but a clear shift towards short-haul destinations for UK Holidaymakers
Looking at the top ten destinations in the holidays market, the rankings are largely unchanged across the board. Although Florida and Dubai have lost some share YoY, the latter dropping almost 1 percentage point, there is still a way to go before we see a significant shift in the rankings.
Top 10 Holiday Destinations Based on YTD Query Volumes Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 -5% 1 1 0 100 8.24% 8.94% -7% 2 2 0 84 6.91% 7.70% +6% 3 3 0 81 6.70% 6.55% -8% 4 4 0 69 5.68% 6.35% -3% 5 5 0 63 5.16% 5.52% +28% 6 6 0 63 5.15% 4.16% +14% 7 7 0 54 4.46% 4.03% +22% 8 8 0 47 3.89% 3.28% +31% 9 10 +1 45 3.72% 2.92% +22% 10 13 +3 39 3.18% 2.70%
Destination Florida Dubai Tenerife New York Las Vegas Malta Ibiza Majorca Benidorm Hawaii
Despite the lack of change in the top 10 rankings, we can still see a very clear trend across the top ten. Short haul destinations, with the exception of Tenerife, have all seen double digit growth YoY. With this growth in short haul, we can also see a very clear decline in long haul holiday destinations. It is likely that the reduction in disposable income, the weaker pound and fuel charges are making holiday makers less inclined to travel farther afield for holidays. The only exception to this is the growth in Hawaii, but the rest of the trend is quite apparent. The decline in long haul destinations such as Florida, New York and Las Vegas is completely at odds with the analysis from Table 7 on the previous page. These destinations are seeing growth in air travel queries, but decline in holiday related queries. This would suggest that users are becoming more comfortable with booking single components of travel and putting their holiday together themselves instead of booking a package. A clear trend from the top ten destinations is the performance of Spanish destinations, with Tenerife, Ibiza, Majorca and Benidorm all performing well. The additional growth in Benidorm may be driven by the ITV sitcom Benidorm, which causes searches for the destination to surge by 159% on Friday evenings when the programme is on the air.9 A study performed by travelsupermarket.com has shown one in five British travellers have been inspired to go to a destination after seeing it in a TV production.9 Another interesting trend is the growth of Malta*, despite it being one of the most expensive holiday countries according to the Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer, which puts Malta as the second most expensive of those surveyed.10
9.
http://www.moneysupermarket.com/c /press-releases/the-benidorm-effectboosts-holiday-searches/0011119/ 10. http://www2.postoffice.co.uk/sites/def defa/files/Holiday_Costs_Barometer_2 020.pdf We have included Malta in the resorts destination analysis as it ranks highly, although it is a country term, and few Maltese resorts rank highly in the analysis.
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Malta outperforming Ibiza in 2011, while Hawaii has several peaks throughout the year
2.5 Malta Ibiza Majorca Benidorm
2
Hawaii
1.5
0.5
0 Jan 10
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May 10
Jul 10
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Sharm el Sheikh suffering after unrest in Egypt, while Santorini, Gibraltar and Los Angeles are biggest gainers
In terms of larger destinations, the decrease in query volume for Sharm el Sheikh is most th th alarming, but it has only fallen 3 positions in the holiday rankings from 15 to 18 , despite a 35% decrease in queries YoY and drop in share of queries from 2.31 to 1.46%. But while Sharm el Sheikh is falling, Santorini is showing impressive growth of 53% YoY, moving up 9 positions to th 19 , and increasing share from 0.96 to 1.42%. Indeed, Google is not the only organization to see this trend, with Thomas Cook citing Santorini in its top 11 Holiday Destinations for 2011.11 Not included here but worthy of noting Gibraltar has moved 16 places to make it into the top 50, th ranked 49 and showing 85% query growth, YoY.
10 Biggest Moving Holiday Destinations Based on YTD Query Volumes Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 -35% 18 15 -3 18 1.46% 2.31% +53% 19 28 +9 17 1.42% 0.96% +20% 20 24 +4 17 1.41% 1.22% +24% 21 26 +5 17 1.39% 1.16% -15% 23 20 -3 16 1.32% 1.60% -17% 24 19 -5 16 1.29% 1.60% -6% 25 22 -3 15 1.26% 1.38% -2% 27 23 -4 14 1.16% 1.22% -13% 29 25 -4 12 0.98% 1.16% +64% 32 36 +4 10 0.83% 0.52%
Destination Sharm el Sheikh Santorini Rome Madeira Jamaica Amsterdam Orlando Barcelona Rhodes St Lucia
11.
http://www.thomascook.com/holidaydestinations-infographic/
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It is difficult to draw a solid conclusion regarding country terms. As with resort terms, some country terms are growing and some are declining. Its worth noting the growth of France, Cuba and Australia; however, France has moved 6 places year on year, and has grown share of queries by almost 0.7 of a percentage point a huge jump from a relatively small base. There have been smaller but significant jumps of 2 and 3 places respectively for Cuba and Australia. In Table 11 on the next page we see the entire list of the top 50 holiday destination. Similar to the Hotel destination analysis, Holiday specific data suggest that the majority of growth is triggered by smaller, more specific destinations. The data suggest that users become more and more specific when researching their holiday destination; making it increasingly important to cover a conclusive keyword universe. Q3 Travel Whitepaper 13
Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Holiday related search queries combined with individual destination names. These queries consist of holidays to florida, package holidays to florida, florida all inclusive holidays etc....
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Destination Spain London Malaga France Cyprus Florida Alicante Orlando Faro Edinburgh
The apparent overall decrease in destination queries YoY is concerning, and at first glance it may indicate that Car Hire queries have declined as a whole, but we know this to be untrue and have reported between 12 and 17% YoY growth in Car Hire queries in 2011, depending on the periods compared. On the next page we have discussed the composition of Car Hire queries, and have determined the growth rates of the different types of queries, but for the purposes of this section of the Whitepaper, we will focus on understanding the movements in destination rankings.
Domestic Car Hire Destinations Based on YTD Query Volumes Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 -15% 2 2 0 57 5.64% 5.98% +7% 10 11 +1 22 2.16% 1.83% +6% 12 12 0 20 2.00% 1.71% +24% 17 21 +4 16 1.59% 1.16% +38% 20 29 +9 15 1.42% 0.93% -11% 23 20 -3 12 1.17% 1.19% +23% 26 35 +9 11 1.11% 0.81% -4% 28 30 +2 10 0.97% 0.91% +3% 29 34 +5 10 0.94% 0.82% +10% 35 43 +8 8 0.82% 0.67% +22% 37 52 +15 8 0.79% 0.58% +54% 43 61 +18 7 0.70% 0.41% -11% 46 40 -6 7 0.68% 0.69% -12% 47 41 -6 7 0.66% 0.68%
Destination London Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Brighton Manchester Inverness Heathrow Belfast Liverpool Gatwick Dundee Leeds Bristol
Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Car Hire related search queries combined with individual destination names
Looking at the movement in destination rankings, we can see that airport destinations in the UK have seen the largest increases in both rankings and queries YoY. The only airport specific destination to decrease YoY is Heathrow, but it has still gained 2 places in the rankings YoY.
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Despite general decline in foreign destinations for Car Hire, some clear trends still emerge
Orlando and Miami have gained in rankings (Miami by 12 places) while Florida, although th unchanged in rank, is placed 6 overall. This is strong performance for Miami and Florida overall when we consider the Hotel, Air Travel and Holiday Destination Analysis Miami has grown in th all areas with increases of 11 places in Hotels, 2 places in Air, and holding 30 place in Holidays.
Top Foreign Gainers in Car Hire Destinations Based on YTD Query Volumes Destination Queries YoY Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Rank Change Size Share 2011 Share 2010 Orlando -8% 8 10 +2 22 2.18% 2.15% Ibiza +0% 18 19 +1 15 1.48% 1.33% Dublin +4% 22 23 +1 13 1.32% 1.15% Mallorca -0% 24 25 +1 12 1.16% 1.06% Las Vegas +2% 25 26 +1 12 1.13% 1.01% Miami +12% 34 46 +12 8 0.82% 0.66% Birmingham -6% 36 38 +2 8 0.80% 0.76% Dubai +7% 39 49 +10 8 0.76% 0.64% Los Angeles -0% 40 45 +5 7 0.73% 0.66% San Francisco +0% 41 47 +6 7 0.73% 0.66% Fuerteventura -5% 42 44 +2 7 0.71% 0.67% Corfu +2% 45 50 +5 7 0.69% 0.61%
Looking at query composition, we see that Branded queries not only make up the largest proportion of queries in the UK, but are also driving YoY growth. Destination specific queries make up a significant portion at 17% of all queries, but these have only grown by 1.5% YoY. This suggests users have started to go direct to Car Hire websites more than searching on generics or longer tail destination terms. When we look deeper at the composition of Brand queries, we see that Aggregator searches are consistently up more than 50% YoY, while Supplier searches are only up 20-30%, depending on the period examined. This change in query trends implies the obvious opportunity to align your strategy to user behaviour: if you havent seen significant growth in your brand traffic, direct competitors have, and this is through ensuring full coverage of generics at the upper end of the search funnel. Generic queries drive brand awareness early in the path to purchase, and brand queries drive conversions closer to the time of purchase. You can then utilise brand building platforms such as the Google Display Network and YouTube to further grow your brand. Another opportunity arising from this analysis is the clear growth in van related queries if van rentals are part of your business, ensure this is being addressed in your ad creative. Q3 Travel Whitepaper 16
Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Car Hire related search queries combined with individual destination names
Source: Google Internal Data based on a bucket of Car Hire related search queries combined with individual destination names
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Methodology
Q3 Travel Whitepaper UK Destination Analysis
2011 Sum of
Rank of the destination based on sum of queries for Jan 1 th September 5 of that year.
st
to
Rank Change
Rank 2010 Rank 2011 (Positive movement is seen as a decrease in th rd the numerical value of rank, i.e. from 5 to 3 ) The most popular destination is that with the highest rank and largest number of queries for year to date 2011. This is set to 100 and every other destination is sized based on that top destination. For example, if London is sized 100 and Brighton is sized 24, then for every 100 search queries related to London, there are 24 for Brighton. This is a variation of the size metric which is sometimes seen in other reports, so has been included here. This metric is the share of all queries on the batch of 115 destinations which we have measured. For example, if there are 1.5m queries for all of these destinations, and London has 10% share of these queries, there were 150k queries for London. As per Googles data sharing policy, we cannot share actual numbers of queries. 18
Size
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