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cA39QuiIrQg Bayesian - Credit - Data - Analysis and Chi Quared

The document analyzes default rates across different categories like gender, activity, age, and family situation. Chi-squared tests are performed to determine if defaults are evenly distributed or if the categories have predictive value for defaults. Gender is found to not have predictive value, while activity, age, and family situation are found to have predictive value.

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ziad saberi
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24 views4 pages

cA39QuiIrQg Bayesian - Credit - Data - Analysis and Chi Quared

The document analyzes default rates across different categories like gender, activity, age, and family situation. Chi-squared tests are performed to determine if defaults are evenly distributed or if the categories have predictive value for defaults. Gender is found to not have predictive value, while activity, age, and family situation are found to have predictive value.

Uploaded by

ziad saberi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Actual Gender Totals nDefaults Defaults Default % rounded

Male 700 661 39 6%


Female 300 289 11 4%
1000 950 50 5%
Actual Activity Totals nDefaults Defaults Default % rounded
Agriculture 182 178 4 2%
Commerce 173 149 24 14%
Industry 88 78 10 11%
Services 269 264 5 2%
Crafts 288 281 7 2%
1000 950 50 5%
Actual Age Totals nDefaults Defaults Default % rounded
Under twenty 171 138 33 19%
Twenties 240 236 4 2%
Thirties 251 247 4 2%
Fourties 191 187 4 2%
Over fifty 147 142 5 3%
1000 950 50 5%
Actual Family situation Totals nDefaults Defaults Default % rounded
Single 147 123 24 16%
Married w/o children 122 111 11 9%
Married with children 731 716 15 2%
1000 950 50 5%

Probabilty of Default 5%
Gender H0 Defaults are distributed evenly
Expected nDefaults Defaults Totals Ha Defaults are not distributed evenly
Male 665.00 35.00 700.00
Female 285.00 15.00 300.00
950.00 50.00 1000.00

Chi-squared nDefaults Defaults


Male 0.02 0.46
Female 0.06 1.07

Chi-squared 1.60
Treshold 95%
# DF 1
Cut-off point 3.84
We accept the 0-Hypothesis and conclude that gender does not have a predictive value

Activity
Expected nDefaults Defaults Totals
Agriculture 172.90 9.10 182.00
Commerce 164.35 8.65 173.00
Industry 83.60 4.40 88.00
Services 255.55 13.45 269.00
Crafts 273.60 14.40 288.00
950.00 50.00 1,000.00

Chi-squared nDefaults Defaults


Agriculture 0.15 2.86
Commerce 1.43 27.24
Industry 0.38 7.13
Services 0.28 5.31
Crafts 0.20 3.80

Chi-squared 48.78
Treshold 95%
# DF 4
Cut-off point 9.49
We reject the 0-Hypothesis and conclude that "Activity" does have a predictive value

Age
Expected nDefaults Defaults Totals
Under twenty 162.45 8.55 171
Twenties 228 12 240
Thirties 238.45 12.55 251
Fourties 181.45 9.55 191
Over fifty 139.65 7.35 147
950 50 1000
Chi-squared nDefaults Defaults
Under twenty 3.68 69.92
Twenties 0.28 5.33
Thirties 0.31 5.82
Fourties 0.17 3.23
Over fifty 0.04 0.75

Chi-squared 89.53
Treshold 95%
# DF 4
Cut-off point 9.49
We reject the 0-Hypothesis and conclude that "Activity" does have a predictive value

Family situation
Expected nDefaults Defaults Totals
Single 139.65 7.35 147
Married w/o children 115.90 6.10 122
Married with children 694.45 36.55 731
Totals 950 50 1000

Chi-squared nDefaults Defaults


Single 1.99 37.72
Married w/o children 0.21 3.94
Married with children 0.67 12.71

Chi-squared 43.85
Treshold 95%
# DF 2
Cut-off point 5.99
We reject the 0-Hypothesis and conclude that "Family situation" does have a predictive value
distributed evenly
not distributed evenly

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