CHAPTER 4

PROBABILITY

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Opening Example

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 KEY TERMS:
EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE
Definitions

A statistical experiment is a process that, when performed,

results in one and only one of many observations.

These observations are called the outcomes of the experiment.

The collection of all outcomes for an experiment is called a

sample space.

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Table 4.1 Examples of Statistical Experiments,
Outcomes, and Sample Spaces

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 HOW TO ORGANIZE EXPERIMENT
OUTCOMES

We use tree and Venn diagrams

Example 4-1

Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a
coin once.

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Figure 4.1 (a) tree diagram and (b)
Venn Diagram for one toss of a coin.

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 Example 4-2

Draw the tree diagrams and Venn for the experiment of tossing
a coin twice.

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Figure 4.2 (a) tree diagram and (b) Venn
diagram for two tosses of a coin.

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 Example 4-3

Suppose we randomly select two workers from a company and

observe whether the worker selected each time is a man or a
woman. Write all the outcomes for this experiment. Draw the tree
diagrams and Venn for this experiment.

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Figure 4.3 (a) Venn diagram and (b) tree
diagram for selecting two workers.

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 Simple and Compound Events

Definition
An event is a collection of one or more of the outcomes of an
experiment.

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 Simple and Compound Events

Definition
An event that includes one and only one of the (final)
outcomes for an experiment is called a simple event and is
denoted by Ei.

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 Example 4-4

Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers from a company

and observing whether the worker selected each time is a man or
a woman. Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, and
WW) for this experiment is a simple event. These four events can be
denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,

E1 = (MM), E2 = (MW), E3 = (WM), and E4 = (WW)

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 Simple and Compound Events

Definition
A compound event is a collection of more than one outcome
for an experiment.

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 Example 4-5

Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers from a

company and observing whether the worker selected each time
is a man or a woman. Let A be the event that at most one man is
selected. Event A will occur if either no man or one man is
selected. Hence, the event A is given by

A = {MW, WM, WW}

Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a

compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure 4.4 gives a
graphic presentation of compound event A.

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Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.

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 Example 4-6

In a group of a people, some are in favour of genetic

engineering and others are against it. Two persons are selected
at random from this group and asked whether they are in favour
of or against genetic engineering. How many distinct outcomes
are possible? Draw a tree diagram and a Venn diagram for this
experiment. List all the outcomes included in each of the
following events and state whether they are simple or
compound events.

(a) Both persons are in favour of the genetic engineering.

(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favour of genetic engineering.

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 Example 4-6: Solution

Let
´ F = a person is in Favour of genetic engineering
´ A = a person is against genetic engineering
´ FF = both persons are in Favour of genetic engineering
´ FA = the first person is in Favour and the second is
against
´ AF = the first is against and the second is in Favour
´ AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

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Figure 4.5 Tree and Venn diagrams.

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 Example 4-6: Solution

a) Both persons are in Favour of genetic engineering = {FF}

Because this event includes only one of the final four
outcomes, it is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic engineering = {FF, FA,
AF}
Because this event includes more than one outcome, it is a
compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in Favour of genetic engineering = {FA,
AF}
It is a compound event.

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 CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a
specific event will occur.

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 Two Properties of Probability

´ The probability of an event always lies in the range 0 to 1.

´ The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final

outcomes) for an experiment, denoted by ΣP(Ei), is always 1.

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 Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability
Classical Probability

Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that have the same
probability of occurrence are said to be equally likely
outcomes (or events).

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Classical Probability

Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability

1
P ( Ei ) =
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

Number of outcomes favorable to A

P ( A) =
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

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 Example 4-7

Find the probability of obtaining a head and the probability of

obtaining a tail for one toss of a coin.

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 Example 4-7: Solution

1 1
P(head) = = = .50
Total number of outcomes 2

Similarly,

1
P( tail) = = .50
2

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 Example 4-8

Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a

die.

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Example 4-8: Solution

A = {2, 4, 6}. If any one of these three numbers is obtained,

event A is said to occur. Hence,

Number of outcomes included in A 3

P(head) = = = .50
Total number of outcomes 6

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 Example 4-9

In a group of 500 women, 120 have played golf at least once.

Suppose one of these 500 women is randomly selected. What is
the probability that she has played golf at least once?

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Example 4-9: Solution

One hundred twenty of these 500 outcomes are included in

the event that the selected woman has played golf at least
once. Hence,

120
P (selected woman has played golf at least once) = = .24
500

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Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

Relative Frequency Concept of Probability

Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of Probability

If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is
observed f times, then, according to the relative frequency
concept of probability,

f
P( A) =
n

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 Example 4-10

Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain

auto factory are found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons
are manufactured randomly, what is the probability that the next
car manufactured at this auto factory is a lemon?

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Example 4-10: Solution

Let n denote the total number of cars in the sample and f the
number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of probability, we obtain

f 10
P(next car is a lemon) = = = .02
n 500

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Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars

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 Law of Large Numbers

Definition
Law of Large Numbers
If an experiment is repeated again and again, the probability of
an event obtained from the relative frequency approaches the
actual or theoretical probability.

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 Example 4-11

Allison wants to determine the probability that a randomly

selected family from New York State owns a home. How can she
determine this probability?

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Example 4-11: Solution

There are two outcomes for a randomly selected family from

New York State: “This family owns a home” and “This family
does not own a home.” These two events are not equally likely.
Hence, the classical probability rule cannot be applied.
However, we can repeat this experiment again and again.
Hence, we will use the relative frequency approach to
probability.

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 Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability
Subjective Probability

Definition
Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an event
based on subjective judgment, experience, information, and
belief.

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked

whether they are in Favour of or against paying high salaries
to CEOs of U.S. companies. Table 4.3 gives a two way
classification of the responses of these 100 employees.

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Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses

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Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses with Totals

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
Definition
Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without
consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.

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Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
Definition
Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur
given that another has already occurred. If A and B are two
events, then the conditional probability A given B is written as
P(A|B)
and read as “the probability of A given that B has already
occurred.”

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 Example 4-12

Compute the conditional probability P (in Favour | male) for

the data on 100 employees given in Table 4.4.

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 Example 4-12: Solution

Number of males who are in favor 15

P(in favor | male) = = = .25
Total number of males 60

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Figure 4.6 Tree Diagram.

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 Example 4-13

For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the conditional probability

that a randomly selected employee is a female given that this
employee is in Favour of paying high salaries to CEOs.

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Example 4-13: Solution

Number of females who are in favor

P(female | in favor) =
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
= = .2105
19

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Figure 4.7 Tree diagram.

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Case Study 4-1 Do You Worry About
Your Weight?

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
Definition
Events that cannot occur together are said to be mutually
exclusive events.

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 Example 4-14

Consider the following events for one roll of a die:

A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are events A and C mutually
exclusive?

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Example 4-14: Solution

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 Example 4-15

Consider the following two events for a randomly selected adult:

Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

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Example 4-15: Solution

As we can observe from the definitions of events Y and N and

from Figure 4.10, events Y and N have no common outcome.
Hence, these two events are mutually exclusive.

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
Definition
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one
does not change the probability of the occurrence of the other. In
other words, A and B are independent events if

either P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B)

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 Example 4-16

Refer to the information on 100 employees given in Table 4.4 in

Section 4.4. Are events “female (F)” and “in Favour (A)”
independent?

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 Example 4-16: Solution

Events F and A will be independent if

P (F) = P (F | A)

Otherwise they will be dependent.

Using the information given in Table 4.4, we compute the
following two probabilities:

P (F) = 40/100 = .40 and

P (F | A) = 4/19 = .2105

Because these two probabilities are not equal, the two events
are dependent.

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 Example 4-17

A box contains a total of 100 DVDs that were manufactured on

two machines. Of them, 60 were manufactured on Machine I.
Of the total DVDs, 15 are defective. Of the 60 DVDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected DVD is defective,
and let A be the event that a randomly selected DVD was
manufactured on Machine I. Are events D and A independent?

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 Example 4-17: Solution

From the given information,

P (D) = 15/100 = .15 and
P (D | A) = 9/60 = .15

Hence,
P (D) = P (D | A)

Consequently, the two events, D and A, are independent.

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Table 4.6 Two-Way Classification
Table

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MARGINAL PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY,
AND RELATED PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā and read as “A bar”
or “A complement,” is the event that includes all the outcomes
for an experiment that are not in A.

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Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two
complementary events.

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 Example 4-18

In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by the IRS

at least once. If one taxpayer is randomly selected from this
group, what are the two complementary events for this
experiment, and what are their probabilities?

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 Example 4-18: Solution

The two complementary events for this experiment are

´ A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at
least once
´ Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the
IRS

The probabilities of the complementary events are

P (A) = 400/2000 = .20 and

P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80

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Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.

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 Example 4-19

In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in Favour of stricter gun

control laws, 1200 are against such laws, and 300 have no
opinion. One adult is randomly selected from this group. Let A
be the event that this adult is in Favour of stricter gun control
laws. What is the complementary event of A? What are the
probabilities of the two events?

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 Example 4-19: Solution

The two complementary events for this experiment are

´ A = the selected adult is in Favour of stricter gun control laws
´ Ā = the selected adult either is against such laws or has no
opinion

The probabilities of the complementary events are

P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70 and

P (Ā) = 1500/5000 = .30

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Figure 4.13 Venn diagram.

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INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE

Intersection of Events

Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The
intersection of A and B represents the collection of all outcomes
that are common to both A and B and is denoted by
A and B

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Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A
and B.

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 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule

Definition
The probability of the intersection of two events is called their joint
probability. It is written as

P(A and B)

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 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability

The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B |A) = P(B) P(A |B)

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 Example 4-20

Table 4.7 gives the classification of all employees of a company given

by gender and college degree.

If one of these employees is selected at random for membership on

the employee-management committee, what is the probability that
this employee is a female and a college graduate?

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 Example 4-20: Solution

We are to calculate the probability of the intersection of the

events F and G.

P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)

P(F) = 13/40
P(G |F) = 4/13
P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)
= (13/40)(4/13) = .100

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Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F
and G.

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Figure 4.16 Tree diagram for joint
probabilities.

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 Example 4-21

A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective. If two DVDs are

selected at random (without replacement) from this box, what is
the probability that both are defective?

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 Example 4-21: Solution

Let us define the following events for this experiment:

G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good
D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good
D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective

We are to calculate the joint probability of D1 and D2,

P(D1 and D2) = P(D1) P(D2 |D1)
P(D1) = 4/20
P(D2 |D1) = 3/19
P(D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316

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Figure 4.17 Selecting two DVDs.

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INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE

Calculating Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events, then,

P( A and B) P( A and B)
P( B | A) = and P( A | B) =
P( A) P( B)

given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.

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 Example 4-22

The probability that a randomly selected student from a college is

a senior is .20, and the joint probability that the student is a
computer science major and a senior is .03. Find the conditional
probability that a student selected at random is a computer
science major given that the student is a senior.

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 Example 4-22: Solution

Let us define the following two events:

´ A = the student selected is a senior
´ B = the student selected is a computer science major

From the given information,

P(A) = .20 and P(A and B) = .03

Hence,
P (B | A) = P(A and B) / P(A) = .03 / .20 = .15

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 MULTIPLICATION RULE FOR
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Multiplication Rule to Calculate the Probability of Independent
Events

The probability of the intersection of two independent events A

and B is

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

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 Example 4-23

An office building has two fire detectors. The probability is .02 that
any fire detector of this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find
the probability that both of these fire detectors will fail to go off in
case of a fire.

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 Example 4-23: Solution

We define the following two events:

A = the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire

B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a fire

Then, the joint probability of A and B is

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) = (.02)(.02) = .0004

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 Example 4-24

The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is .20.

Suppose this drug is administered to three patients.

a) Find the probability that all three of them are allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the them is not
allergic to it.

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 Example 4-24: Solution

a) Let A, B, and C denote the events the first, second, and third
patients, respectively, are allergic to penicillin. Hence,

P (A and B and C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

= (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

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 Example 4-24: Solution

b) Let us define the following events:

G = all three patients are allergic
H = at least one patient is not allergic

P(G) = P(A and B and C) = .008

Therefore, using the complementary event rule, we obtain

P(H) = 1 – P(G) = 1 - .008 = .992

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Figure 4.18 Tree diagram for joint
probabilities.

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 MULTIPLICATION RULE FOR
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

The joint probability of two mutually exclusive events is always

zero. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then

P(A and B) = 0

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 Example 4-25

Consider the following two events for an application filed by a

person to obtain a car loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved
R = event that the loan application is rejected
What is the joint probability of A and R?

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 Example 4-25: Solution

The two events A and R are mutually exclusive. Either the loan
application will be approved or it will be rejected. Hence,

P(A and R) = 0

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UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION RULE

Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The union
of events A and B is the collection of all outcomes that belong to
either A or B or to both A and B and is denoted by

A or B

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 Example 4-26

A senior citizen center has 300 members. Of them, 140 are male,
210 take at least one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95
are male and take at least one medicine on a permanent
basis. Describe the union of the events “male” and “take at
least one medicine on a permanent basis.”

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 Example 4-26: Solution

´ Let us define the following events:

M = a senior citizen is a male
F = a senior citizen is a female
A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine

´ The union of the events “male” and “take at least one

medicine” includes those senior citizens who are either male or
take at least one medicine or both. The number of such senior
citizens is
140 + 210 – 95 = 255

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Table 4.8

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Figure 4.19 Union of events M and A.

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 UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION
RULE
Addition Rule

Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union of Events

The portability of the union of two events A and B is

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

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 Example 4-27

A university president has proposed that all students must take a

course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred
faculty members and students from this university were asked
about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9 gives a two-way
classification of the responses of these faculty members and
students.

Find the probability that one person selected at random from

these 300 persons is a faculty member or is in Favour of this
proposal.

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Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of
Responses

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 Example 4-27: Solution

Let us define the following events:

A = the person selected is a faculty member
B = the person selected is in Favour of the proposal

From the information in the Table 4.9,

P(A) = 70/300 = .2333
P(B) = 135/300 = .4500
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B | A) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500

Using the addition rule, we obtain

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
= .2333 + .4500 – .1500 = .5333

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 Example 4-28

In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian,

and 400 are female and vegetarian. What is the probability that
a randomly selected person from this group is a male or
vegetarian?

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Example 4-28: Solution

Let us define the following events:

F = the randomly selected person is a female
M = the randomly selected person is a male
V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian
N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.
P( M or V ) = P( M ) + P(V ) - P( M and V )
1100 600 200
= + -
2500 2500 2500
= .44 + .24 - .08 = .60

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Table 4.10 Two-Way Classification
Table

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 Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive
Events
Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the Union of Mutually
Exclusive Events

The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events A

and B is

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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 Example 4-29

A university president has proposed that all students must take a

course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred
faculty members and students from this university were asked
about their opinion on this issue. The following table,
reproduced from Table 4.9 in Example 4-30, gives a two-way
classification of the responses of these faculty members and
students.

What is the probability that a randomly selected person from

these 300 faculty members and students is in Favour of the
proposal or is neutral?

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Example 4-29: Solution

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-29: Solution

Let us define the following events:

F = the person selected is in Favour of the proposal
N = the person selected is neutral

From the given information,

P(F) = 135/300 = .4500
P(N) = 40/300 = .1333

Hence,
P(F or N) = P(F) + P(N) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833

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Figure 4.20 Venn diagram of
mutually exclusive events.

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 Example 4-30

Consider the experiment of rolling a die twice. Find the

probability that the sum of the numbers obtained on two rolls is
5, 7, or 10.

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Table 4.11 Two Rolls of a Die

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 Example 4-30: Solution

P(sum is 5 or 7 or 10)
= P(sum is 5) + P(sum is 7) + P(sum is 10)
= 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36 = 13/36 = .3611

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 Example 4-31

The probability that a person is in Favour of genetic

engineering is .55 and that a person is against it is .45. Two
persons are randomly selected, and it is observed whether
they Favour or oppose genetic engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment
b) Find the probability that at least one of the two persons
Favours genetic engineering.

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 Example 4-31: Solution

a) Let
F = a person is in Favour of genetic engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering

This experiment has four outcomes. The tree diagram in Figure

4.21 shows these four outcomes and their probabilities.

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Figure 4.21 Tree diagram.

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 Example 4-31: Solution

b) P(at least one person Favours)

= P(FF or FA or AF)
= P(FF) + P(FA) + P(AF)
= .3025 + .2475 + .2475 = .7975

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 COUNTING RULE, FACTORIALS,
COMBINATIONS, AND PERMUTATIONS
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes

If an experiment consists of three steps and if the first step can result
in m outcomes, the second step in n outcomes, and the third in k
outcomes, then

Total outcomes for the experiment = m · n · k

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 Example 4-32

Suppose we toss a coin three times. This experiment has three

steps: the first toss, the second toss, and the third toss. Each step
has two outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,

Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-33

A prospective car buyer can choose between a fixed and a

variable interest rate and can also choose a payment period of
36 months, 48 months, or 60 months. How many total outcomes
are possible?

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-33: Solution

There are two outcomes (a fixed or a variable interest rate) for

the first step and three outcomes (a payment period of 36
months, 48 months, or 60 months) for the second step. Hence,

Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-34

A National Football League team will play 16 games during a

regular season. Each game can result in one of three outcomes: a
win, a loss, or a tie. The total possible outcomes for 16 games are
calculated as follows:

Total outcomes = 3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3 ·3·3·3·3

= 316 = 43,046,721

One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16 wins.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 COUNTING RULE, FACTORIALS,
COMBINATIONS, AND PERMUTATIONS
Factorials

Definition
The symbol n!, read as “n factorial,” represents the product of all
the integers from n to 1. In other words,
n! = n(n - 1)(n – 2)(n – 3) · · · 3 · 2 · 1
By definition,
0! = 1

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 Example 4-35

Evaluate 7!

7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040

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 Example 4-36

Evaluate 10!

10! = 10 · 9 · 8 · 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1
= 3,628,800

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 Example 4-37

Evaluate (12-4)!

(12-4)! = 8! = 8 · 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1
= 40,320

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 Example 4-38

Evaluate (5-5)!

(5-5)! = 0! = 1
Note that 0! is always equal to 1.

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 COUNTING RULE, FACTORIALS,
COMBINATIONS, AND PERMUTATIONS
Combinations

Definition
Combinations give the number of ways x elements can be
selected from n elements. The notation used to denote the total
number of combinations is

n Cx

which is read as “the number of combinations of n elements

selected x at a time.”

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Combinations

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 Combinations

Number of Combinations
The number of combinations for selecting x from n distinct
elements is given by the formula

n!
n Cx =
x!(n - x)!

where n!, x!, and (n-x)! are read as “n factorial,” “x factorial,” “n

minus x factorial,” respectively.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-39

An ice cream parlor has six flavors of ice cream. Kristen wants to
buy two flavors of ice cream. If she randomly selects two flavors
out of six, how many combinations are there?

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Example 4-39: Solution

n = total number of ice cream flavors = 6

x = # of ice cream flavors to be selected = 2

6! 6! 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
6 C2 = = = = 15
2!(6 - 2)! 2!4! 2 ×1× 4 × 3 × 2 ×1

Thus, there are 15 ways for Kristen to select two ice cream
flavors out of six.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-40

Three members of a jury will be randomly selected from five

people. How many different combinations are possible?

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Example 4-40: Solution

n = 5 and x = 3

5! 5! 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 120
5 C3 = = = = = 10
3!(5 - 3)! 3!2! 3 × 2 × 1× 2 × 1 6 × 2

Dr S Muya @ 2024
 Example 4-41

Marv & Sons advertised to hire a financial analyst. The

company has received applications from 10 candidates who
seem to be equally qualified. The company manager has
decided to call only 3 of these candidates for an interview. If
she randomly selects 3 candidates from the 10, how many
total selections are possible?

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Example 4-41: Solution

n = 10 and x = 3

10! 10! 3,628,800

10 C3 = = = = 120
3!(10 - 3)! 3!7! (6)(5040)

Thus, the company manager can select 3 applicants from 10

in 120 ways.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Case Study 4-2 Probability of Winning
a Mega Millions Lottery Jackpot

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 Permutations

Permutations Notation
Permutations give the total selections of x element from n
(different) elements in such a way that the order of selections is
important. The notation used to denote the permutations is

n Px

which is read as “the number of permutations of selecting x

elements from n elements.” Permutations are also called
arrangements.

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 Permutations

Permutations Formula

The following formula is used to find the number of permutations

or arrangements of selecting x items out of n items. Note that
here, the n items should all be different.

n!
n Px =
(n - x )!

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 Example 4-42

A club has 20 members. They are to select three office holders

– president, secretary, and treasurer – for next year. They
always select these office holders by drawing 3 names
randomly from the names of all members. The first person
selected becomes the president, the second is the secretary,
and the third one takes over as treasurer. Thus, the order in
which 3 names are selected from the 20 names is important.
Find the total arrangements of 3 names from these 20.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Example 4-42: Solution

n = total members of the club = 20

x = number of names to be selected = 3
n! 20! 20!
n Px = = = = 6840
(n - x )! (20 - 3)! 17!

Thus, there are 6840 permutations or arrangements for

selecting 3 names out of 20.

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Excel

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Excel

Dr S Muya @ 2024
Excel

Dr S Muya @ 2024