Week3 Lecture 2&4
Week3 Lecture 2&4
1
Errors
Are errors which can vary in random Are errors which do not vary
manner between successive readings from one reading to another.
of the same quantity.
(a) Construction errors
(occurs while manufacturing the
(a) Operating errors (Ex. errors in instrument)
reading the output device)
(b) Approximation errors (result from
assumptions made regarding the
(b) Environmental errors (due to
relationship between quantities. As
change in temperature, pressure,
linearization)
humidity, …etc)
(c) Aging errors
(c) Stochastic errors (result from (d) Insertion errors (loading errors)
stochastic process such as noise)
2
Uncertainty (Error) analysis
Propagation of uncertainties
A quantity may be determined as a result of calculations carried out on
the results of a number of measurements, each of which has some error
associated with it. If the result O is a given function of the independent
(variables) measurements x1, x2, …, xn as
O f (x 1 , x 2 ,K , x n )
Then, the uncertainty (overall error) in the quantity O is given as
2 1/2
O O 2 2
O
O e1 e2 L en
x 1 x 2 x n
Where: δO is the uncertainty in O (overall error), and
ei s the error in the individual measurement xi
3
Uncertainty (Error) analysis
Propagation of uncertainties
O f (x 1 , x 2 ,K , x n )
Then, the uncertainty (overall error) in the quantity O is given as
2 1/2
O O 2
O
2
O e1 e2 L en
x 1 x 2 x n
O
The overall percentage error is:% eo 100
O
4
Propagation of uncertainties
5
Propagation of uncertainties
Example: Assume that we have the following measurements for the voltage E
and the current I for a certain heater:
E 12V 1.5%
I 10 0.2A
Calculate the power of the heater and its uncertainty (error)
Solution:
Nominal values are E0 12V, I 0 10A
Individual errors:
1.5
% eE 1.5 eE 12 0.18V
100
and eI 0.2A
6
Propagation of uncertainties
Power, P EI
2 12
P P
2
Overall error, P eE eI
E I
P P
Where I 10A, E 12V
E I
P [(10 0.18)2 (12 0.2)2 ]1 2 3 W
P
Percentage overall error is %e P 100
P0
Where P0 is the nominal power,
R r 1 (T 20)
R0 r0 1 0 (T0 20)
R0 6 1 0.004(30 20)
6.24
Individual errors:
0.3
er 6 0.018
100
1
e 0.004 4 105 C1
100
eT 1C
9
Propagation of uncertainties
The uncertainty in resistance of the wire is
2 12
R R R
2 2
R e r e eT
r T
where
R
1 0 (T0 20) 1 (0.004)(30 20) 1.04
r
R
r0 (T0 20) (6)(30 20) 60
R
r0 0 (6)(0.004) 0.024
T
10
Propagation of uncertainties
R [ 1.04 0.018 60 4 10 0.024 1
5 2
2 2 12
]
0.0305 (Answer)
R0.0305
%e R 0.49%
R0 6.24
11
Propagation of uncertainties
12
Propagation of uncertainties
Solution:
E2
P (is a function of E and R)
R
Uncertainty in the power is 2 12
P P
2
P eE eR
E R
13
Propagation of uncertainties
P 2 E 2 100 P E2 (100) 2
20 2 100
E R 0 10 R R 0
(10) 2
P22.36
%e P 100 2.236
P0 1000
14
Propagation of uncertainties
Case 2: Calculating the power by measuring the voltage and the current
2 12
P P
2
P eE eI
E I
P
Where I 0 10
E
P
E0 100
I
15
Propagation of uncertainties
Uncertainty in the power is
12
P 10 1 100 0.1 14.14W
2 2
The nominal power is
P
14.14
%e P 100 1.414
P0 1000
16
Propagation of uncertainties
Conclusion:
17
Loading Effects as a source
of systematic error
loading
When we insert an instrument into the position to measure a quantity, an error
in the measurement may occur due to loading effect.
Examples:
inserting an ammeter into a circuit to measure the current changes the value of
the current due to the ammeters own resistance which changes the total
resistance of the circuit.
in order to get maximum voltage transfer from the network to the load, the load
impedance should be far greater than the Thévenin impedance for the network. In
order to get maximum power transfer from network to load, the load impedance
should be equal to the network impedance
Therefore, the effect of connecting a load across the network yields a loading
error of magnitude
Loading Error E V Th L
ZL
ETh 1
Z Th Z L
Example
Loading a voltmeter
Rm
Rm
Vm ETh
Rm RTh
Error ETh Vm
Rm
ETh 1
Z Th Rm
and the accuracy of the voltmeter is
Vm
Accuracy 100%
ETh
Rm
100%
Z Th Rm
Note that if Rm is very large, the error goes to zero and the accuracy goes to
100%
24
Example 3.1
Reduction of Systematic Errors
Xo = KmKs Ei
High-Gain Feedback
The sensitivity of the gain constants Ka, Km, and Ks to the environmental inputs
Da, Dm, and Ds has thereby been rendered irrelevant, and we only have to be
concerned with one environmental input, Df.
Reduction of Systematic Errors
di xi xm
32
Statistics
The variance (V) of the measurements is given by
d 12 d 22 L d n2
V
n 1
1 n
V
n 1 i 1
(x i x m ) 2
33
Statistics
Example: Calculate xm, Vx and σ for measurement sets A, B, and C, and discuss the
results.
Measurement set A, n = 11
398 420 394 416 404 408 400 420 396
413 430
Measurement set B, n = 11
35
Statistics
Solution: measurement set B, n = 11. B
xi 409 406 402 407 405 404 407 404 407
407 408
1 n
Mean, xm xi 406.0
n i 1
di 3 0 -4 1 -1 -2 1 -2 1
1 2
(di)2 9 0 16 1 1 4 1 4 1
1 4
1 n 42
V
n 1 i 1
(d i ) 2
10
4.2,
V 2.05
36
Statistics
Solution: measurement set C, n = 23. C
409 406 402 407 405 404 407 404 407
xi
407 408 406 410 406 405 408 406 409
406 405 409 406 407
1 n
Mean, xm xi 406.5
n i 1
2.5 -0.5 -4.5 0.5 -1.5 -2.5 0.5 -2.5 0.5
di
0.5 1.5 -0.5 3.5 -0.5 -1.5 1.5 -0.5 2.5
-0.5 -1.5 2.5 -0.5 0.5
1 n 77.6
V
n 1 i 1
(d i ) 2
22
3.53, V 1.88
37
Statistics
Results:
Set n xm V σ
A 11 409.0 137 11.7
B 11 406.0 4.2 2.05
C 23 406.5 3.53 1.88
A plot of the
readings
(reading)
38
(i)
Statistics
Conclusions:
Note that the smaller values of V and σ for measurement set B compared with A
agree with the respective size of the scatter (smaller scatter) in the readings as
shown in the plot
Comparing V and σ for measurement sets B and C, V and σ get smaller as the
number of measurements increases, confirming that confidence in the mean value
increases as the number of measurements increases.
39
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Graphical techniques are a very useful method of analyzing the way in which random
measurement errors are distributed. The simplest way to do this is to draw a
histogram, in which intervals of equal width across the range of measurement values
are defined and the number of measurement (or frequency) within each interval is
counted.
K 1.87(n 1)0.40 1
40
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Example: Plot the histogram (frequency distribution) of measurement set
given in the table bellow
41
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Solution:
K 1.87(n 1)0.40 1
1.87(20 1)0.40 1
7 intervals
Range xmax xmin
1.34 0.68
0.66
Range 0.66
Interval width (x) 0.1
K 7
42
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Data distribution on the intervals
43
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
The sum of the number of occurrences must equal to the total number of
measurement n,
K
n j (1 1 3 7 4 2 2) 20
j 1
7
f j (2 5 15 35 20 2 10) / 100
1
1.0
45
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Since the measurement error is usually of most concern, it is often more
useful to draw a histogram of the deviations of the measurements (Di) from
the mean value (xm) rather than to draw a histogram of the measurements
themselves. The resulted graph is known as histogram of deviations.
This histogram has exactly the
histogram of deviations
same shape as the histogram of
the row measurements except
that the scaling of the horizontal
axis has to be redefined in
terms of the deviations (Di)
instead of xi as shown
Here
1
xm xi 1.1
n -.45 -.35 -.25 -.15 -.05 .05 .15 .25
Di xi xm Deviation, D
46
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
As the number of measurements increases, smaller intervals can be defined for
the histogram, which retains its basic shape but then consists of a larger number
of smaller steps on each side of the peak. In the limit, as the number of
measurements approaches infinity, the histogram becomes a smooth curve
known as a frequency distribution curve as shown in the figure. The ordinate of
this curve is the frequency of occurrence of each deviation value, F(D), and the
abscissa is the magnitude of deviation, D.
F(D)
47
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
The area under the curve is unity and can be expressed mathematically as
F ( D)dD 1 F(D)
The probability that the error in anyone
particular measurement lies between two
levels D1 and D2 can be calculated by
measuring the area under the curve
contained between two vertical lines drawn
through D1 and D2
D2
P( D1 D D2 ) F ( D)dD D0 Dp D1 D2 D
D1
48
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
The probability of observing a value less than or equal to D0 is expressed
mathematically as
D0
P( D D0 ) F ( D)dD F(D)
The deviation magnitude Dp
corresponding with the peak of the
frequency distribution curve is the
value of deviation that has the greatest
probability. If the errors are entirely
random in nature, then the value of Dp
will equal zero. Any non-zero value of
Dp indicates systematic errors in the D0 D p D1 D2 D
data, in the form of a bias that is often
removable by recalibration
49
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
Gaussian distribution
F (D )
1
e D 2 2 2
, where D x xm
2
50
Graphical data analysis technique-frequency
distributions
D2
1
P (D1 D D 2 ) e D 2 2 2
dD ,
D1 2
F(D)
Solution of this expression is simplified by
the substitution
D
z
Therefore
P( D1 D D2 ) P( z1 z z2 ) D0 Dp D1 D2 D
z2
1
e z 2 2
dz , Difficult to be solved
z 1 2
analytically !
51
Standard Gaussian tables z
1
F ( z) Sx e z 2 dz
2
2
0 z
1
2
z 2 2
e dz 1
52
Therefore
P( D1 D D2 ) P( z1 z z2 )
F ( z2 ) F ( z1 )
For negative values of z, we can make use of the following relation
F ( z ) 1 F ( z )
This is true because the total area the frequency distribution curve is equal to 1.
F(-z) is the area under the curve to the left of –z, i.e. it represents the
proportion of data values less than or equal to –z.
53
Example:
Solution F(D)
We know that D
z
For D , z 1
For D , z 1
P (D ) P (z 1)
-σ 0 +σ D
F (1) 1 F (1) 1 0.8413 0.1587
54
Similarly
P (D ) P (z 1)
0.1587 0.1587
0.3174
32%
i.e. 32% of the measurements lie outside σ boundaries, then 68% of the
measurements lie inside
55
The previous analysis shows that, for Gaussian-
distributed data values, 68% of the measurements
have deviations within the bounds σ. Similar
analysis shows that
Probability of any
% of the points lie within
Deviation boundaries particular data point
the boundary
being outside boundary
σ 68.0 32%
2σ 95.4 4.6%
3σ 99.7 0.3%
56
P
D
z D z
68%
95.4%
99.7%
57
Example:
Solution:
Assume that the signal has normal distribution about the mean value xm
It is required to find
P(10.0 x 11.5)
58
Now, find Di
D1 x1 xm 10 8.5 1.5 V
D2 x2 xm 11.5 8.5 3 V
Find zi
D1 1.5
z1 1
1.5
D2 3
z2 2
1.5
Now:
59
But we know that
P(1 z 2) F ( z 2 ) F ( z1 )
F (2) F (1)
From the Standard Gaussian tables, we get
F (1) 0.8413
F (2) 0.9772
60
Example 3
P (x 20.2) P (x 19.8)
61
Example 4
d) Greater than 12
62
Solution 4
a) Between 9 and 12
9 10 1 z2
12 10 2
z1 1
1
P (1 z 2) P (z 2) P (z 1)
P (1 z 2) 0.9772 1 P (z 1)
P (1 z 2) 0.9772 1 .8413
P (1 z 2) 0.8185 81.85%
63
Solution 4
64
Solution 4
c) Less or equal to 9
z1
9 10 1
1
65
Solution 4
d) Greater than 12
z1
12 10 2
1
P (2 z ) 1 P (z 2)
P (2 z ) 1 0.9772 0.0228
66
Confidence Interval
area / 2
area / 2
In general, a 95% confidence level
is used with 1.96 confidenceinterval Confidence
interval
Confidence level=1-
:level of significance z /2 z 0 z /2
67
Interval estimation of the mean µ
69
Example 6
70
Solution 6
x 25, 0.5, n 36 area / 2
area / 2
Confidence level is 90%,
Confidence
1 Confidence level interval
=1-0.9=0.1
0.05
2
We should find z /2 z /2 z 0 z /2
P ( z z ) 1 0.05 0.95 z 1.645
x z /2 x
2
0.5
25 1.645 25 0.14
36
The average resistance must be in this range with confidence level 90%
71
Least-Squares Linear fit
b
i y i x i x i y i
x 2
n x x i
2 2
i
72
Example
. 73
Solution:
74
75
Combined Effect of Systematic and
Random Errors
Error in a sum
If the two outputs y and z (each measurement is entirely independent of
the others) of separate measurement system components are to be added together,
we can write the sum as .
If the maximum errors in y and z are ± ay and ± bz, respectively,
76