Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2005 to 2018

Trend Analysis
of GHG Emissions of
INDIA
GHG Platform India is a civil society initiative providing an independent estimation and analysis of India's Greenhouse
Gas (GHG) emissions across key sectors.
The Platform aims to add value to the various ongoing GHG emissions estimation efforts by addressing existing data
gaps and data accessibility issues, broadening the scope of national inventories to include state inventories, and
increasing the volume of analytics and policy dialogue on India's GHG emissions sources, profile, and related policies.

The initiative estimates and assesses GHG emissions and removals from the following sectors:

ENERGY IPPU* AFOLU WASTE

*Fuel combusted for captive electricity generation (auto-producers) and direct fuel combustion (industrial energy) has been reported under energy sector.

India at a Glance (2018)

Population 3287 Net GHG Emissions

131.98 crore thousand km2 area 2952.87

Mt CO2e

Population Density

401.48 Per Capita Emissions

Persons/km2
2.24
t CO2e/capita

Forest Area

713 21.69%
GDP

thousand km2 of India’s total area

₹137
lakh crore

Mt CO2e – Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent | CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate *The map represents the data for 2018
Economy-wide Emissions Estimates
Figure 1: GHG Emissions Estimates of India (2005 to 2018)
3500
2952.87
Emissions Estimates (Mt CO2e)

3000
2520.27
2500
2087.70
2000
1585.51
1500

1000

500

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AFOLU Energy IPPU Waste Total Emissions

India’s emissions grew at a CAGR of 4.90% from 1585.51 Mt CO2e in 2005 to 2952.87 Mt CO2e in 2018 (see Figure
1). Energy sector was the major contributor to India’s total economy-wide emissions across the reference period. In
2005, the share of Energy sector in India’s economy-wide GHG emissions was ~72%, while Agriculture, Forestry and
Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector accounted for 16%. Both Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and Waste
sectors accounted for 6% each of economy-wide emissions in 2005. As can be seen in Figure 2 below, in 2018, the
share of emissions from Energy sector increased to ~83%, while that of AFOLU and Waste sectors declined to ~6%
and ~4%, respectively. IPPU’s sectoral share increased by 1% during the reference period.

Figure 2: Sector-wise Contribution (Mt CO2e) and Percentage Share in Net Economy-wide
GHG Emissions of India

88.23 114.50 170.58

6% 4% 6%
99.43 212.53
6% 256.70 7%
16%

1141.15 2455.25
72% 83%

2005 2018

AFOLU Energy IPPU Waste

 Figure 3: Per Capita GHG Emissions of India (2005 to 2018)

2.4 2.24
Emissions Estimates (t CO2e/capita)

2.2
1.98
2.0
1.77
1.8
1.6 1.45
1.4
1.2
1.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Per capita emissions of India

India’s per capita emissions increased at a compounded rate of 3.41% from 1.45 t CO2e per capita in 2005, to 2.24
t CO2e per capita in 2018, as illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 4: Percentage Share of Greenhouse Gases (in terms of CO2e) in

India’s Economy-wide Emissions (2018)

Key emitters of CH4

AFOLU (66%)
Waste (21%)
Energy (14%)
CH4
N2 O
16%
3%

Key emitters of N2O

AFOLU (60%)
Waste (21%)
Energy (19%)

CO2
Key emitters of CO2 81%
Energy (92%)
IPPU (8%)
 Energy Sector
The Energy sector emissions comprise of emissions from Fuel Combustion and Fugitive Emissions. Fuel Combustion
includes emissions from Public Electricity Generation, Transport, Captive Power Plants, Industries, Agriculture,
Commercial, and Residential categories. Fugitive Emissions are due to Fuel Production. The Energy sector of India
accounted for 83% of the economy-wide emissions in 2018. As illustrated in Figure 5, emissions from the Energy sector
more than doubled from ~1141 Mt CO2e in 2005 to ~2455 Mt CO2e in 2018. This rise in the Energy sector’s emissions
was majorly due to the increase in Fuel Combustion across various categories.

Figure 5: GHG Emissions Estimates of Energy Sector - India (2005 to 2018)

3000
Emissions Estimates ( Mt CO2e)

2455.25
2500
2012.79
2000
1576.06
1500
1141.15
1000

500

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Public Electricity Generation Industries Transport

Captive Power Plants Residential Others
Fugitive Emissions Total Energy

Figure 6: Category-wise Emissions (Mt CO2e) and Percentage Share in Total Energy Sector Emissions (2018)

Residential
Fugitive Emissions
118.19
38.57
5% Transport 2%
299.26
12% Agriculture
37.72
1%
Public Electricity Commercial
Generation Industries
639.05 14.47
1098.50 1%
45% 26%

Captive Power Plants

203.07
8%

Within the Energy sector, Public Electricity Generation (PEG) category was the major contributor of GHG emissions
with a share of ~45% of the total Energy emissions, in 2018. This was followed by Industrial Energy and Transport
categories at ~26% and~12%, respectively (see Figure 6).
 Within the Fuel Combustion sub-sector, emissions from Coal continued to be the highest contributor with an average
share of 71% during the reference period (see Figure 7). This was followed by Liquid Petroleum Fuels with an average
share of 20%, between 2005 and 2018. Gaseous Petroleum Fuels had an average share of 8%, while Other Fuels
contributed to less than 2% of the Fuel Combustion emissions throughout the reference period.

Figure 7: Fuel-wise Percentage Share in GHG Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2005-2018)

100%

90%

80%

70%
68.81 68.86 72.31 72.37
60%

50%
% Share

40%

30%

20%

10% 21.88 20.64 19.23 18.75

0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Liquid Petroleum Fuels* Gaseous Petroleum Fuels* Coal* Other Fuels*

*Notes:
1. Coke is included in Coal because the bifurcation of pet-coke and coke was not available
2. Gaseous Fuels - natural gas, LPG and other gaseous fuels
3. Liquid Petroleum Fuels - ATF, diesel, kerosene, motor spirit and other liquid fuels
4. Other Fuels comprises of firewood and charcoal
 IPPU Sector
Emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector are largely driven by Mineral, Chemical, Metal
Industries and Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use. IPPU sector represented ~7% of the total economy-
wide emissions of India, in 2018. Between 2005 and 2018, the overall IPPU emissions more than doubled, having
increased at a CAGR of 6.02% from 99.43 Mt CO2e in 2005 to 212.53 Mt CO2e in 2018. Mineral Industry was the major
contributor to the IPPU sector emissions across the reference period. Emissions from Mineral Industry increased at a
CAGR of 6.26%, from 59.48 Mt CO2e in 2005, to 130.89 Mt CO2e in 2018 (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: GHG Emissions Estimates of IPPU Sector - India (2005 to 2018)

250
212.53
Emissions Estimates ( Mt CO2e)

200 176.06

150 138.18
99.43
100

50

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chemical Industry Metal Industry
Mineral Industry Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use
Total IPPU

Within the Mineral Industry sub-sector, emissions were primarily driven by Cement Production category throughout
the reference years. This category’s share in total IPPU emissions in 2018 was ~55%, down from ~59% in 2005 (see
Figure 9). Ammonia Production emissions held a significant share of GHG emissions at 20.28% in 2005 but it gradually
decreased to 11.88% in 2018. On the other hand, the share of emissions from Iron and Steel Production increased
steadily, from 5.34% in 2005 to 11.12% in 2018. Since 2017, emissions from the category mentioned as Others, which
includes Ethylene Oxide Production, Ethylene Production, Carbon Black Production, Aluminium Production, Lime
Production, and Lubricant Use, also increased significantly, from 5.34% in 2005 to 11.12% in 2018, as illustrated in
Figure 10.

Figure 9: Sub-sector Emissions (Mt CO2e) and Percentage Share in Total IPPU Emissions (2018)

Non-Energy Products from

Fuels and Solvent Use
2.91
1.37%
Cement Production
Metal 117.22
Industry 55.15%
Mineral Industry
30.10 Chemical
130.90
14.16% Industry
61.59%
48.62
22.88%

Other Mineral Glass Production

Industries Lime Production 12.27
0.057 1.35 5.78%
0.03% 0.63%
 Figure 10: Percentage Share of GHG Emissions from IPPU Categories (2005 to 2018)

100%
90% 15.68 17.64 15.88
21.85
80%
70% 13.65
20.28 15.72
60% 11.88
% Share

50%
40%
61.84 65.73
30% 58.70 55.15
20%
10%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cement Production Ammonia Production Iron and Steel Production Others

 AFOLU Sector
Emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector arise from three main sub-sectors, namely
Livestock, Land and Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emissions Sources on Land*. Emissions from AFOLU sector
represented nearly 6% of India’s total economy-wide emissions in 2018. The net AFOLU emissions declined at a rate
of 3.09% (compounded annually), from 256.70 Mt CO2e in 2005, to 170.58 Mt CO2e in 2018, as illustrated in Figure 11.
In India, while the Livestock and Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emissions Sources on Land sub-sectors were net GHG
emitters, the Land sub-sector was a sink across all the reference years. This was because of increase in removals due
to Land Use and Land-Use Change practices. In particular, the significant increase in sink of the Land sub-sector,
observed post 2017, can be attributed to increase in forest area as well as enhanced carbon stock density of forests,
as reported by Forest Survey of India (2021)**. Overall, the average annual removals from the Land Sub-Sector in India
during the reference period were 107.62 Mt CO2e, which was around 31% of the average annual gross AFOLU
emissions.

Figure 11: GHG Emissions Estimates of AFOLU Sector - India (2005 to 2018)

400 345.03 355.16 348.96 351.55

350
266.84
Emissions Estimates (Mt CO2e)

300 256.70
224.59 170.58
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Aggregate Sources and non-CO

Non-CO22 emissions
Emissionssources
Sourceson
onland
Land Land
Livestock Total AFOLU (with Land)
Total AFOLU (w/o Land)

Figure 12: Category-wise Emissions (Mt CO2e) and Percentage Share in Gross AFOLU Emissions
(excluding Land sub-sector) (2018)

Manure Management
20.90 Agriculture Soils
6% 52.57
15%
Biomass Burning in
Cropland
Enteric Fermentation
7.30
201.57
2%
57%
Biomass Burning in
Forest land
Rice Cultivation 1.51
67.70 1%
19%

*The sub-sector called ‘Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emissions Sources on Land’ includes emissions from Rice Cultivation,
Agriculture Soils, and Biomass Burning in Cropland and Forestland.
**FSI Report 2021 reports data for 2019
 The Livestock sub-sector (Enteric Fermentation and Manure Management) was the major contributor to the gross
AFOLU emissions (excluding Land sub-sector) from 2005 to 2018 with an average share of ~64% across the reference
period. Within the Livestock sub-sector, Enteric Fermentation was the leading contributor to gross AFOLU emissions
with a share of ~57% in 2018 (see Figures 12 and 13).

From the Aggregate Sources sub-sector, the categories of Rice Cultivation and Agriculture Soils were the major
contributor. Share of Rice Cultivation emissions to gross AFOLU emissions decreased from ~20% in 2005 to ~19% in
2018. While, the share emissions from Agriculture Soils increased from ~12% in 2005 to ~15% in 2018, due to increase
in fertilizer use (see Figure 13).

Figure 13: Category-wise Share of Gross AFOLU Emissions (excluding Land sub-sector) (2005 to 2018)

100%

90% 20.28 19.28 19.18 19.26

80%

70% 12.26 13.83 14.90 14.95

60%

50%
% Share

40%

30% 58.36 57.70 57.67 57.34

20%

10%

0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Enteric Fermentation
Manure Management
Agriculture Soils
Biomass Burning in Cropland
Biomass Burning in Forest land
Rice Cultivation
Waste Sector
Solid Waste Disposal, Domestic Wastewater and Industrial Wastewater are the key sources of GHG emissions in the
Waste sector. The Waste sector contributed to almost 4% of India’s total economy-wide GHG emissions in 2018. Waste
sector emissions increased at a CAGR of 2.02%, from 88.23 Mt CO2e in 2005, to 114.50 Mt CO2e in 2018. An increase
in the overall emissions of Waste sector was observed in 2011 due to growth in emissions from the Domestic
Wastewater which reflects changing trends in use of various treatment systems, as reported in 2011 Census of India.
Although emissions from the Industrial Wastewater sub-sector displayed an increasing trend until 2014, nearly 50%
reduction of its emissions in 2015 led to a dip in overall Waste sector emissions. However, between 2015 and 2018
the emissions followed an increasing trend again (see Figure 14).

Figure 14: GHG Emissions Estimates of Waste Sector – India (2005 to 2018)
160

140
106.63 106.83 114.50
Emissions Estimates (Mt CO2e)

120
88.23
100

80

60

40

20

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Domestic Wastewater Industrial Wastewater Solid Waste Disposal Total Waste

Figure 15: Sub-sector Emissions (Mt CO2e) and Discharge of untreated wastewater and use of
Percentage Share in Total Waste Sector Emissions (2018) septic tanks are the key drivers of emissions due
to Domestic Wastewater sub-sector. Domestic
Wastewater had a major share of 56% in the
total Waste sector emissions of India in 2018.
Industrial Approximately 11% of the Waste sector
Wastewater
37.51
emissions were from Solid Waste Disposal,
33% which grew at an estimated CAGR of 4.97% from
Domestic
Wastewater 7.05 Mt CO2e in 2005 to 13.23 Mt CO2e in 2018.
63.76 Industrial Wastewater accounted for nearly 33%
56% of Waste sector emissions in 2018 and increased
Solid Waste
Disposal
nominally at a CAGR of 0.03% from 37.36 Mt
13.23 CO2e in 2005 to 37.51 Mt CO2e in 2018 (see
11% Figures 14 and 15).

Emissions from Domestic Wastewater of both rural and urban areas grew at a CAGR of 2.93%, from 43.82 Mt CO2e
in 2005 to 63.76 Mt CO2e in 2018. Almost 61% of Domestic Wastewater emissions were from the rural areas of India
in 2018, as shown in Figure 16.
 Figure 16: Area-wise GHG Emissions Estimates of Domestic Wastewater (2005 to 2018)

45
23.64 39.08
40 16.46 37.40
Emissions Estimates (Mt CO2e)

15.25 24.68
35 30.60
28.57
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rural Urban

Pulp and Paper Production was a major contributor to Industrial Wastewater emissions with a share of 73% in 2018.
This was followed by Fertilizers (~14%), Meat (~5%), and Dairy (~4%) industries as depicted in Figure 17.

Figure 17: Category-wise Emissions (Mt CO2e) and Percentage Share in

Total Industrial Wastewater Emissions (2018)

Fertilizers
5.11 Meat
14% 1.97
5%
Pulp & Paper
27.22 Dairy
73% 1.63
4%
Others
1.59
4%
 The GHG Platform India is a civil society initiative providing an independent estimation and analysis of India's
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions across key sectors, namely- Energy, IPPU, AFOLU and Waste.

The Platform comprises of the following civil society:

The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) is one of South Asia's leading not-for-profit policy
research institutions. It uses data, integrated analysis and strategic outreach to explain – and change – the
use, reuse, and misuse of resources.

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in agricultural
research for development in wheat and maize-based farming systems.

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) is a not for profit research organisation incorporated
in 2005 u/s 25 of The Companies Act, 1956.

ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability is a leading global network of over 1,500 cities, towns and regions
committed to building a sustainable future.

Vasudha Foundation, set up in 2010, is a not for profit organisation, working in the clean energy and climate
policy space.

Secretariat Contact
Vasudha Foundation, CISRS House, 14, Jangpura B,
Mathura Road, New Delhi - 110014, India
Phone No. - 011-24372680

This document has been compiled and analysed by Vasudha Foundation. All information mentioned in this document is sourced from GHG Platform India.
To download this document and to know more about the Platform, please visit www.ghgplatform-india.org or write to [email protected]