Financial Modeling UG
Financial Modeling UG
Financial Modeling
A Financial Model is the process of
is a representing in
representation in numbers of a
numbers of some company's
or all aspects of a operations in the
company's past, present, and
operations. the forecasted
future.
Uses of Financial Models
Financial models are used to estimate the value of a
business, viability of projects, sensitivity analysis,
Cash Flow Analysis, Financial Statement
preparation.
Financial Model
Fin
anc
i al S
t ate
m ent
s: F
o rec
ast
Example of a Financial Model
Assumption: Sales
activities continue
as previous
Design a Sales Inputs:
Growth Model Y1: Sales
Units=200,000
Y2: Sales
Units=250,000
Sales Growth Model
Sales Growth
Description Y1 Y2 Rate
Sales Units 200,000 250,000 25%
The financial modeler creates:
• One cell for Description , cell A1
• One cell for the prior year's sales, cell B2, and
• One cell for the current year's sales, cell C2.
• The fourth cell, cell D2, is used for a formula that divides
the difference between cell B2 and C2 by cell B2.
• This is the growth formula.
• Cell D2, the formula, is hard-coded into the model. Cells B2
and C2 are input cells that can be changed by the user.
Financial Model
• A financial model is a
tool used to forecast
a business’s
financial
performance into the
future based on
historical data and
assumptions.
Why do we build financial models?
• For anyone pursuing a career in
– Finance and investment
– corporate development,
– investment banking,
– FP&A,
– equity research,
– commercial banking, or other areas of corporate finance,
building financial models is part of the daily routine.
Investment
Corporate Corporate
Project Decisions
Decisions Transactions
Finance Valuation,
Company Mergers &
Whether to Equity
Performance, Acquisitions,
invest in a Research,
Strategic Capital
project Portfolio
Planning Raising Management
Types of Financial Models
1. Financial Statement Models
2. DCF Model
3. Merger Model
4. Initial Public Offering (IPO) Model
5. Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Model
6. Sum-of-the Parts Model
7. Consolidation Model
8. Budget Model
9. Forecasting Model
10. Option Pricing Model
Hierarchy of Financial Modeling
Financial Modeling Best
Practices
Key Structure for Model Building
• Good Models clearly separate inputs, processing and
outputs.
Inputs Processing
Outputs
Clearly Transparent
identified Broken
Should only down in to
ever be simple steps
Quickly
entered once Easy to Accessible
follow
Modelling Best Practices
1. Clarify
2. Simplify
3. Plan
4. Integrity
5. Model Testing
Modelling Best Practices
• What problem is the model meant to
solve?
• Who is the end user?
1. Clarify
• What are users supposed to do with
the model?
Inputs
Processes Outputs
Model Inputs
Achieving objectives
Objectives
• Enter each data once
• Accurate • Use color to
• Reasonable data differentiate
ranges
inputs and outputs
• Easy to use
• Easy to understand • Use data validation &
• Easy to update data conditional formatting
• Use comments
Model Processing
Achieving objectives
• Break down complex
Objectives calculations
• Easy to maintain • Use comments and
• Accurate processing annotations
• Transparency • Use formatting
• Calculate final figures
which will go onto the
output reports
Model Outputs
Achieving objectives
Objectives • Make outputs
• Provide key results modular
to aid decision-making • Consider creating a
• Easy to understand summary section with
• Unambiguous only the most
important key model
outputs
Unit Two:
Excel Fundamentals: Formulas for
Models in Finance
Keyboard over the mouse
• Professionals use the keyboard over the
mouse to
– Save time
– Move around more easily
• Professional trainings unplug your mouse
(Challenge yourself to unplug or not use
key board)
• Slower in short run; much faster in long
run.
Excel Layout Workbook
corporatefinanceinstitute.com
Unit Three:
Financial Statement Modeling
Financial Statement Forecasting
Framework
Financial Statement Forecasting
Framework
Financial Modeling Steps
Historical Data
DATA
Assumptions, Drivers and
Forecasting Methods
Modeling EBIT
Modelling Balance Sheet (Working
Capital)
Forecast non-current
capital assets :
• PP&E
• Capex
• Depreciation
• Intangibles
Forecasting Non-Current Assets
Forecasting Non-Current Assets
First principles approach
• Forecast property, plant, and
equipment requirement directly “Quick and simple” approach
(e.g. store expansion) • Forecast depreciation &
• Forecast amortization as a percentage of
depreciation/amortization based on opening PP&E balance or
stated depreciation/amortization percentage of revenue • Forecast
policies. If deprecation policies are PP&E balance based on a capital
not available, divide gross assets asset turnover ratio
by the depreciation expense to get
average asset life.
Forecasting Non-Current Assets
Forecast Capital Structure
The financing
structure affects both
the balance sheet and
the income statement
(i.e. interest)
Forecast Capital Structure
Forecast Capital Structure
Approaches to modeling capital
structure (debt/equity)
Debt/Equity
Change Over
time based on
cash flow
Approaches to modeling capital
structure (debt/equity)
Approaches to modeling capital
structure (debt/equity)
Forecasting Cash Flows
A cash flow
forecast can be
derived from the
balance sheet and
income statement
Forecasting Cash Flows
Forecasting Cash Flows: Operating
Forecasting Cash Flows: Investing
Forecasting Cash Flows: Financing
Auditing Techniques
Auditing techniques
Unit Four:
Valuation Fundamentals
IFRS 13
78
Learning Objectives
ü non-financial assets
ü financial assets
ü financial liabilities
79
List of Applicable IFRS
80
The objective of IFRS 13
81
The objective of IFRS 13
l how (or whether) to account for any subsequent changes in fair value (e.g. in
profit or loss or in other comprehensive income).
82
THE SCOPE OF IFRS 13
Excluded from the scope •IFRS 2 (Share based payment)
•IFRS 16(leases)
• IAS 2 (net realisable value)
• IAS 36 (value in use)
84
85
Who would transact for the item?
l Market participants are buyers and sellers in the principal (or most advantageous)
market who are:
Independent Knowledgeable
87
Fair value: market participants’ view point
application guidance: characteristic of an asset or liability
l Fair value measurement is for a particular asset or liability
ü it captures all characteristics of the asset or liability being measured that market
participants would take into account when pricing the item
– Location
– age and remaining economic life
– Condition
– restrictions on use or sale that are a characteristic of the item
l it excludes things that are not characteristics of the asset or liability
ü transactions costs
ü restrictions on use or sale that are not a characteristic of the item
88
Restrictions on use, sale or transfer of
assets Example
Impacts fair
Scenario
value
1. entity holds an equity instrument (financial asset) for which sale is legally restricted for a
Yes
specified period and restriction is embedded in the terms of the instrument
2. entity holds an equity instrument (financial asset) and has agreed with another entity not
No
to sell for at least 12 months
3. charity holds land donated for use only as a playground but which could be sold to raise
No
funds and the restriction would not transfer to the buyer
4. entity holds a piece of land that is subject to an enduring legal right of the utility company
Yes
to run power cables across the land
Where would the transaction taken place?
90
Fair value: which market?
Determining the principal market
l The following three markets exist for EEP’s fleet of vehicles. The corporation has the
ability to transact in all three markets (and has historically done so). As at the
measurement date, the corporation has 100 vehicles (same make, model and
mileage) that it needs to measure at fair value. Volumes and prices in the respective
markets are as follows:
Which of the market is the principal market for the corporation's Vehicle?
IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement
Transaction and transport costs
include in
cost type description explanation
cost to sell the fair value
asset/transfer the no, but consider characteristic of
liability that are in assessment of the transaction,
transaction cost directly attributable to which market is not of the
the disposal or most asset/liability
transfer and would advantageous
not otherwise have
been
cost thatincurred
would be
incurred to transport
yes, if location characteristic of
transport cost an asset from its is a characteristic the asset
current location to its of the asset
exit market
Fair value: which market?
test your understanding: transaction costs
Example: EEP has an asset that is sold in two different markets, Market A and
Market B, with similar volumes of activities, but with different prices. EEP enters into
transactions in both markets and can access the price in those markets for the asset
at the measurement date. There is no principal market for the asset. Information
from both markets is presented as follows.
Market A Market B
Price Br. 30 Br.28
Transport costs (5) (4)
Br. 25 Br.24
Transaction costs (3) (1)
Net amount received Br. 22 Br.23
l How should EEP measure the fair value of the asset? Or how much is the fair value of
the asset?
93
IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement
Example
Price less
Transport
Market Price transport Transaction costs Net
costs
costs
A 27 3 24 3 21
B 25 2 23 1 22
Market 1 2
Daily trade volume 100,000 20,000
Price 100 108
Price less transport costs 95 101
Transaction costs 4 4
Net 91 97
Yes No
Replicate a market price through a valuation
Use this quoted price to measure fair
technique* (using observable+ and unobservable
value (Level 1) inputs: Levels 2 and 3)
IFRS 13 establishes a three level fair value hierarchy for inputs to measure fair value:
• Entity A measures the fair value of its investment property using the price per square metre
derived from market transactions for similar buildings in similar locations. The assets in the
observed transactions are sufficiently comparable so that no significant adjustments to
the inputs are required
• Entity B measures the fair value of its investment property using the price per square metre
derived from market transactions for similar buildings. The assets and the location in the
observed transactions are not sufficiently comparable so a significant adjustments to the
inputs are required.
•When a price for an identical asset or liability is not observable, an entity measures fair value
using another valuation technique that:
•maximises the use of relevant observable inputs and
•minimises the use of unobservable inputs
•IFRS 13 provides guidance on the use of valuation techniques when measuring fair value and
states that there are three widely used valuation techniques:
l the market approach
l the cost approach
l the income approach
•An entity should use valuation techniques consistent with one or more of those approaches to
measure fair value.
Fair value: non-financial asset
102
Highest and best use
•The fair value of non financial asset should reflect the highest and
best use from market participant perspective.
ü HBU: the use of a non-financial asset by market participants that
maximises the value of the asset:
– physically possible
– legally permissible
– financially feasible
is presumed to be the market or
other factors suggest otherwise
103
Valuation premise
l A non-financial asset either:
ü provides maximum value through its use in combination with other assets and
liabilities as a group.
– is its value influenced by it being ‘operated’ with other assets?
104
Valuation premise continued
105
Example : highest and best use
Land acquired in a business combination is currently developed for industrial use as a
site for a manufacturing facility. Nearby sites were recently developed for residential
high-rise flats. It was determined that the land could be used to develop residential
high-rise flats.
How is highest and best used determined?
l In this case, the highest and best use is determined from the higher of:
a) The value of the land used in the manufacturing operation
108
Fair value of a non-financial asset
test your understanding: example 2
On 31 December 2000 what is the fair value of your land rights (ie excluding the factory
building)?
l Choose 1 of:
1) Br. 0; 2) Br. 10 million; 3) Br. 20 million; 4) Br. 30 million; 5) Br. 70 million; 6) Br. 80
million; 7) Br. 100; million; or 8) another amount
On 31 December 2000 what is the fair value of your factory building (ie excluding the land
rights)?
l Choose 1 of:
1) Br. 0; 2) Br. 10 million; 3) Br. 20 million; 4) Br. 30 million; 5) Br. 70 million; 6) Br. 80
million; 7) Br. 100; million; or 8) another amount
109
Fair value of a non-financial asset
test your understanding: example 3
l The facts are the same as Example 1, except that in this example (fifteen years later),
on 31 December 2015:
ü high-rise commercial development is now the highest and best use for your land
rights because the rapidly expanding financial district of Addis Ababa has grown to
the boundary of plots 899, 900 and 901.
ü Consequently, on 31 December 2015 Plots 899 and 901 each sold for Br. 100
million.
110
Fair value of a non-financial asset
test your understanding: example 3
On 31 December 2015 what is the fair value of your land rights (ie excluding the factory
building)?
l Choose 1 of:
1) Br. 0; 2) Br. 10 million; 3) Br. 20 million; 4) Br. 30 million; 5) Br. 70 million; 6) Br. 80
million; 7) Br.100; million; or 8) another amount
On 31 December 2015 what is the fair value of your factory building (ie excluding the land
rights)?
l Choose 1 of:
1) Br. 0; 2) Br. 10 million; 3) Br. 20 million; 4) Br. 30 million; 5) Br. 70 million; 6) Br. 80
million; 7) Br.100; million; or 8) another amount
Does your estimate of the fair value of your factory building (ie excluding the land rights)
depend on which model you use for your land rights (cost model or revaluation model)?
111
Fair value of a non-financial asset
what do you think? example 4
l In Examples 1 and 2 fair value was determined with reference to the sale of similar
assets at the measurement date (31 December 2000 and 2015).
l The facts are the same as in Example 2, except that there have been no recent sales
of similar assets (ie Plots 899 and 901 are unsold).
l How could the fair value of the factory building on Plot 900 be measured at 31
December 2015?
l What judgements would be made in measuring such a Level 3 fair value?
l Can such a Level 3 fair value measurement be faithfully represented?
l Is such a Level 3 fair value measure verifiable?
112
Fair value: restriction on use
test your understanding
Example: A donor of land specifies that the land must be used by the corporation for
cultivation of sugar cane. Upon review of relevant documentation, the corporation
determines that the donor’s restriction would not transfer to market participants if the
corporation sold the asset (i.e. the restriction on the use of the land is specific to the
association). Furthermore, the corporation is not restricted from selling the land.
Without the restriction on the use of the land, the land could be used as a site for
coffee plantation. In addition, the land is subject to an easement (a legal right that
enables a utility to run power lines across the land).
l Under these circumstances, what is the effect of the restriction and the easement on
the fair value measurement of the land?
113
Fair value: restriction on use
test your understanding
l You own land use rights to Plot A that is zoned ‘green belt’—which prohibits the
construction of buildings on that land.
l Similar neighbouring plots’ with the same land use rights and subject to the same
restrictions sold recently:
ü for Br. 950,000 on 30 October 2015 (Plot B); and
ü for Br. 30,000,000 on 31 December 2015 (Plot C).
l The difference in the selling price of Plots B and C is attributable primarily to the press
leaked confidential government dossier setting out the government’s plans for proposing
an amendment to the law to allow for the construction of high-rise buildings on some
(but unspecified which) green belt land.
114
Fair value: restriction on use
test your understanding
You employ a reputable property valuation expert to value the land use rights to Plot A
at 31 December 2015 under each of the following hypothetical scenarios:
l Scenario 1: the land is rezoned allowing for the construction of a high-rise
building: Br. 100,000,000
l Scenario 2: market participants believe there is no prospect of the zoning laws
changing: Br. 1,000,000
What is the fair value of the land use rights to Plot A at 31 December 2015? Choose
one of:
1) Br. 950,000; 2) Br. 1,000,000; 3) Br. 30,000,000; 4) Br. 100,000,000; or 5) another
amount.
115
Fair value: location
test your understanding
On Sene 1, 2008 your firm buys a machinery for ¥ 90 million in china to increase its
productivity. Additionally the firm paid ¥ 10 million agent commission and ¥ 5 million
to transport the machine from China to its production site. The seller of the machine
incurred ¥ 6million selling costs. Assuming that the market at which the firm
purchased the machine is its principal market (should the firm choose to sell the
machine).
What is the fair value of the machine at Sene 30, 2008 (in ¥)?
Choose one:
A. 75 million
B. 80 million
C. 85 million
D. 74 million
E. 69 million
116
Fair value: financial asset
117
Specific requirements for financial instruments
l The ‘highest and best use’ concept does not apply to financial instruments
l The unit of account for financial instruments in the scope of IAS 39 and IFRS 9 is
typically the individual financial instrument
ü an exception, if certain conditions are met, IFRS 13 permits an entity to measure
the fair value of a group of financial assets and financial liabilities with offsetting
risk positions on the basis of its net exposure (the portfolio measurement
exception) (see paragraphs 48 and 49 of IFRS 13).
l Specific guidance for financial liabilities with demand features – the fair value of such
liabilities cannot be less than the amount payable on demand, discounted from the
first date that the amount could be required to be paid (see paragraph 47 of IFRS 13).
118
Measuring fair values of financial instruments
l Generally measure fair value using:
ü market approach (for example, quoted market prices and market multiples for
comparable assets); and/or
ü income approach (for example, present value techniques and option-pricing models)
ü liquidity risk
l Effect of risk: (i) variable expectations of future cash flows, (ii) price for bearing this
uncertainty (see paragraphs B15 to B17 of IFRS 13)
119
Fair value: liabilities
120
Fair value: a liability
the concept
l The fair value of a liability is
ü the price that would be paid to transfer a liability (exit price)
ü in an orderly transaction (not a forced sale)
121
Fair value: liability decision tree
application guidance: liabilities
Is there an observable market price No
Yes to transfer the instrument?
Does somebody hold the
Fair value = corresponding asset?
observable market Yes
price of instrument No
122
Disclosure
123
Disclosure
As the disclosures are really extensive, here, the examples of
the minimum requirements are listed:
l Fair value measurement at the end of the reporting period;
l The reasons for measurement (for nonrecurring)
l The level in which they are categorized in the fair value hierarchy,
l Description of valuation techniques and inputs used;
l And many others
124
IFRS and
Valuation
Brief introduction of the IVS
Presentation Outline
01
International
02
Market
03
Income
04
Cost
Valuation of Approach Approach Approach
Standards
(IVS)
Value
V
…an Estimate or Opinion of Value of some object or thing….
Value, Price and Cost
Value is the“…..most probable selling price, worth, usefulness, or utility of a property for some purpose.
129
IVS Glossary
Framework
Asset Standards
General
Standards
International
Valuation
Company Name
Standards
IVS General Standards
01
Cost Approach
Depreciated Replacement
Cost.
02
Income Approach
Direct Capitalization
Method.
03
Market Approach
134
Cost Approach Example
l A valuer has found the construction cost for three
homes which have developed recently. The homes
are similar in all features except for those as
indicatedSubject
in the below table. Comparable Comparable
Comparable
property sale #3
sale #1 sale #2
Square-meter 150 140 150 165
home/built up area
No of bed rooms 3 3 4 4
No. of bathrooms 2 2½ 2½ 2
No of kitchens 1 2 2 1
Construction Cost 1,500,000 Birr 1,650,000 Birr 1,930,000
135
Comparative (Area/Volume)Method
l The valuer estimates the following costs:
• Cost of a ½ bathroom to be Birr 45,000.
• The cost of one bed room to be Birr 50,000.
• The cost of one kitchen to be Birr 40,000
l Required
l Estimate the Replacement cost new of the Building
136
Valuation Approaches
Marketing is the study and management of exchange relationships. Marketing is the business process of creating relationships with and satisfying customers.
01
Cost Approach
Depreciated Replacement
Cost.
02
Income Approach
Direct Capitalization
Method.
03
Market Approach
Income
Approach
Example
139
Solution
l
140
Valuation Approaches
Marketing is the study and management of exchange relationships. Marketing is the business process of creating relationships with and satisfying customers.
01
Cost Approach
Depreciated Replacement
Cost.
02
Income Approach
Direct Capitalization
Method.
03
Market Approach
Age (years) 20 20 30
Unit 5
Valuation Modeling
Learning Objectives
• Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to:
• Understand the difference between equity and enterprise value
and when to use each of them
• Understand what discounted cash flow analysis is, how to
calculate free cash flow, WACC and NPV
• Understand why comparable company analysis is performed,
the pros & cons of it, and how to calculate the various ratios
• Understand various factors impacting valuation that cannot be
discretely modeled
• Understand why precedent transaction analysis is performed,
the pros & cons of it, and how to calculate the various ratios
• understand how to effectively present the results of valuation
analysis