UNIT-5

JOB SEQUENCING AND NETWORK ANALYSIS

Introduction
Sequencing deals with the selection of an optimum order for the number of jobs
to be performed
with a finite number of facilities. The objective of sequencing is to determine the
sequence of
performing jobs such that the total cost/time is minimized.
Sequencing problems arise in situation like a manufacturing plant for performing
orders, in a
hospital where the patients wait for different type of tests and in a bank where
customers wait
for different types of transactions, etc.
Sequencing models determine an appropriate order (sequence) for a series of
jobs to be done on a finite number of service facilities in some pre-assigned order,
so as to optimize the total cost (time) involved. The algorithm, which is used to
optimize the total elapsed time for processing n jobs through two machines is
called ‘Johnson’s Algorithm’. Consider n jobs (1, 2, ..., n) processing on three
machines A, B, C in the order ABC. The optimal sequence can be obtained by
converting the problem into a two-machine problem. If there are two jobs, each
of which is to be processed on K machines M1, M2, ..., MK in two different
orders. The ordering of each of the two jobs through K machines is known in
advance.
Terminology and Notations
The following are the terminologies and notations used in this unit.
Number of Machines: It means the service facilities through which a job must
pass before it is completed.
Processing Order: It refers to the order in which various machines are required
for completing the job.
Processing Time: It means the time required by each job on each machine.
Idle Time on a Machine: This is the time for which a machine remains idle
during the total elapsed time. The notation xij is used to denote the idle time of a
machine j between the end of the (i – 1)th job and the start of the ith job.
Total Elapsed Time: This is the time between starting the first job and completing
the last job, which also includes the idle time, if present.
No Passing Rule: It means, passing is not allowed, i.e., maintaining the same
order of jobs over each machine. If each of N-jobs is to be processed through 2
machines M1 and M2 in the order M1 M2, then this rule will mean that each job
will
go to machine M1 first and then to M2. If a job is finished on M1, it goes directly
to
machine M2 if it is free, otherwise it starts a waiting line or joins the end of the
waiting line, if one already exists. Jobs that form a waiting line are processed on
machine M2 when it becomes free.
Principal Assumptions
(i) No machine can process more than one operation at a time.
(ii) Each operation once started must be performed till completion.
(iii) Each operation must be completed before starting any other operation.
(iv) Time intervals for processing are independent of the order in which
operations
are performed.
(v) There is only one machine of each type.
(vi) A job is processed as soon as possible, subject to the ordering requirements.
(vii) All jobs are known and are ready for processing, before the period under
consideration begins.
(viii) The time required to transfer jobs between machines is negligible.
Job Sequence Problems
Job sequencing is basically the planning of the jobs in sequential manner and is
an
essential part of any work. Without proper planning and scheduling one can not
achieve the desired output and profit. For sequencing a job, generally the two
techniques are used termed as Priority Rules and Johnson’s Rules. Priority rules
give the guidelines for properly sequencing the job, where as Johnson’s rule is
used to minimize the completion time for a set of jobs to be done on two different
machines. Using these rules one can assign jobs and maximize product and profit.
Basic characteristics of job sequencing
1. Only one single job should be scheduled for a machine at a time.
2. Do not stop the process in between before completion.
3. New processing can be started after the completion of the previous
processing.
4. Any job is scheduled for processing as per the order and due date
requirements.
5. If the jobs are transferred from one machine to another due to some reason,
then the time involved in transferring the jobs is considered negligible.
Priority Rules: These rules are used to get specific guidelines for job sequencing.
The rules do not consider job setup cost and time while analysing processing
times. In it job processing time and due dates are given importance because the
due dates are fixed to give delivery in time to the customers. The rules are very
useful for process-focussed amenities, for example health clinics, print shops and
manufacturing industries. Hence, priority rules minimize the time for completing
a
job, sequences the jobs in the organization, checks if any job is late and
maximizes
resource utilization. The most popular priority rules are as follows:
First Come First Serve (FCFS): The job to be processed first is the job
that turned up first in the organization.
Earliest Due Date (EDD): The job to be processed first is the job that
has earliest due date.
Shortest Processing Time (SPT): The job to be processed first and
completed is the job that is shortest in nature; in other words the job can be
processed in short time.
Longest Processing Time (LPT): The job to be processed first is the
job that is very important or of high priority though it can take longer
processing time.
Critical Ratio (CR): The job to be processed first is analysed on the
basis of critical ratio, which is an index number calculated from time remaining
until due date divided by the remaining work time.
Johnson’s Rule: This rule is applied to minimize the completion time for a set
of
jobs that are to be processed on two different machines or at two consecutive
work stations. The main objectives of the rules are,
To minimize the processing time while sequencing a set of jobs on two
different machines or work stations.
To minimize the complete idle time on the processing machines.
To minimize the flow time of the job, i.e., from the start of the first job until
the completion of the last job.
Necessary Conditions for Johnson’s Rules: The necessary conditions to
efficiently complete the processing of the jobs are as follows:
Knowledge about job time for each job at the specific work station.
Job time must not depend on sequencing of jobs.
All the jobs to follow the predefined work sequence.
Avoid job priority.
Four Steps Johnson’s Rule: The following are the important four steps in
Johnson’s rule:
Step 1: List all the jobs and the processing time of each machine to which these
jobs are scheduled.
Step 2: Choose the job which has the shortest processing time. If the shortest
time has been scheduled on the first machine or work station then the job is
selected first for processing. In case the shortest time is scheduled on the second
machine
or work station then the job is processed at the end.
Step 3: After scheduling the job for processing go to Step 4.
Step 4: Repeat Step 2 again to schedule the processing of remaining jobs and fill
the sequence columns towards the centre till all the jobs are scheduled.

MAINTENANCE CREW SCHEDULING

Crew scheduling is the process of assigning crews to operate transportation
systems,
such as rail lines or airlines. Most transportation systems use software to manage
the crew scheduling process. Crew scheduling becomes more and more complex
as you add variables to the problem. These variables can be as simple as 1
location,
1 skill requirement, 1 shift of work and 1 set roster of people. For example, in air
lines crew scheduling consists of deciding the flight schedules of the crew. This
is
done according to their qualification in flying certain types of fleets (aircraft type
rating), by respecting labor and contractual rules and minimizing crew expenses.
Crew expenses are wages and overnight costs while away from their crew base.
In the Transportation industries, such as Rail or mainly Air Travel, these variables
become very complex. In Air travel for instance, there are numerous rules or
‘Constraints’ that are introduced. Basically, these deal with legalities relating to
work shifts and time, and crew members qualifications for working on a particular
aircraft. Fuel is also a major consideration as aircrafts and other vehicles require
a
lot of costly fuel to operate. Finding the most efficient route and staffing it with
properly qualified personnel is a critical financial consideration. The same applies
to rail travel.
The problem is computationally difficult and various competent mathematical
methods are used to solve the problem. Within a set of constraints and rules, move
a set roster of people with certain qualifications, from place to place with the least
amount of personnel and aircraft or vehicles in the least amount of time. Lowest
cost has traditionally been the major driver for any crew scheduling solution. The
following four equations are must for the computational process:
People and their qualifications and abilities.
Aircraft or vehicles, qualification requirements of people and their cost to
operate over distance.
Locations and the time, and distance between each location.
Work rules for the personnel, including shift hours and seniority.
In crew scheduling the rules and constraints are typically a combination of the
following:
Government regulations concerning flight time, duty time and required rest,
designed to promote aviation safety and limit crew fatigue.
 Crew bid requests and vacations.
Labor agreements.
Aircraft maintenance schedules.
Crew member qualification and licensing.
Other constraints related to training.
Pairing experienced crew members with more junior crew members. Sequencing
Problem
Returning crew to their base at the end of their trip called deadheading.
All of these issues must be addressed in order to create a satisfactory solution for
personnel and management of the organization. For the crew member in seniority
based system schedules are decided largely on workplace seniority. Those at the
top of a seniority list are allowed some choices. As assignments are made and the
remaining roster of personnel becomes fewer, managements’ systems start to
assign
the remaining trips based on a weighting of the 4 previously mentioned variables,
without any input from personnel. This does not allow the personnel to have any
choice or voice in the schedules they receive. This lack of scheduling awareness
until the end of each scheduling period is a major workforce issue and an
employee
morale problem, often creating a tenuous situation especially where a collective
bargaining agreement is in place and particularly at negotiation time. Crew
members
and management can interact with schedules and data in a real time Web
interface.
Status can be seen and acted upon as it develops and changes rather than
requesting
or bidding for a schedule once then waiting to see the outcome. Additional
unplanned
disruptions in schedules due to weather and air traffic control delays can disrupt
schedules, so crew scheduling software remains an area for ongoing research.

Network analysis
Network analysis, as stated above, is a technique
related to sequencing problems which are concerned with minimizing some
measure
or performance of the system such as the total completion time of the project, the
overall cost and so on. The technique is useful for describing the elements in a
complex situation for the purpose of designing, planning, coordinating
controlling
and making decision. Network analysis is especially suited for projects which are
not routine or repetitive and which will be conducted only once or a few time.
It allows the total requirements
of men, materials, and money, machinery and space resources to be readily
calculated and also indicates where the delaying of non-critical jobs (i.e., jobs
which do not immediately affect the duration of the project) may be used for
optimal utilisation of resources.
Network scheduling is a technique used for planning and scheduling large
projects in the field of construction, maintenance, fabrication, etc. It is a tool for
minimizing problems in the execution and controlling critical factors in a project.
Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM)
are two planning and control techniques for keeping a project schedule on track
to complete within the scheduled time.
The Critical Path Method (CPM), or Critical Path Analysis (CPA), is
an algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. It is commonly used in
conjunction with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). A
critical
path is determined by identifying the longest stretch of dependent activities and
measuring the time required to complete them from start to finish. The Program
(or project) Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used
in project management, which was designed to analyse and represent
the tasks involved in completing a given project.
Objectives
The main objectives of network analysis are:
1. To foster increased orderliness and consistency in the planning and evaluating
of all areas in the project.
To provide an automatic mechanism for the identification of potential trouble
spots in all areas which arise as a result of a failure in one.
3. To structure a method to give operational flexibility to the programme by
allowing for experimentation in a simulated sense.
4. To effect speedy handling and analysis of the integrated data, thus allowing
for expeditious correction of recognised trouble areas in project management.
Network analyses, thus, plays an important role in project management.
Through network analysis, which is a graphic depiction of ‘Activities’ and
‘Events’ related to a project, planning, scheduling and control of project
becomes easier and effective.

Steps Involved in Network Analysis

Network analyses achieve their purpose in three broad steps:
1. They present in diagrammatic form, a picture of all the jobs (or activities) to
be accomplished and of their dependence on one another. The way in which
this is done is to construct what is known as a ‘Network Diagram’ in which
each job is represented by an arrow on the diagram. The way in which the
arrows are linked indicates the dependencies of the jobs on each other.
2. They consider the limitations imposed by the availability of resources viz.,
of men, machine, money and material and in view of these estimate the time
required to do each job.
3. They apply the estimated job time to the network diagram and then analyse
the network. Analysis in this case means the calculation of the total length of
time involved in each path through the network.

Significance of Network Analysis

1. Network analysis clearly shows the interdependences between jobs to be
performed in contest of a project and thus enables people to see not only
the overall plan but the ways in which their own activities depend upon or
influence those of others.
2. By splitting up the project into smaller activities, it assist in the estimation of
their durations and thereby leading to more accurate target dates.
3. It enables stricter controls to be applied since any deviation from schedule
is quickly noticed.
4. It allows the total requirements of men, materials, money, machinery and
space resources to be readily calculated and also indicates where the delaying
of non-critical jobs (i.e., jobs which do not immediately affect the duration
of the project) may be used for optimal utilisation of resources.
5. Its identification of the critical path has two advantages: (i) If the completion
date has to be advanced, attention can be concentrated on speeding up the
relatively few ‘Critical’ jobs, (ii) Money is not wasted on speeding up ‘Non
Critical’ jobs.
6. It allows modifications of policy to be built easily and their impact can also
be assessed quickly.
7. It allows schedules to be based on considerations of costs so as to complete
projects in a given time at minimum expense.
8. It separates the planning of the sequence of jobs from the scheduling of
times for the jobs and thus it makes planning and scheduling effective.

Limitations of Network Analysis

The only real disadvantage of network analysis as a planning tool is that it is a
tedious and exacting task if attempted manually. The calculations are done in
terms
of the sequence of activities and, if this is all that is required, a project involving
several hundred activities may be attempted manually. However, the possibility
of
error is high, and if the results are to be sorted, the cost of manual operation
rapidly becomes uneconomic. The consideration of various alternative plans also
becomes impossible, because of the large volumes involved.
But now we have standard computer programmes for network analysis,
which can handle project plans of upto 5000 activities and more, and produce
‘Output’ in various forms. Even then it must be emphasised, that a computer only
assists with the calculation and with the printing of pirns of operation sorted into
various orders. The project manager is still responsible for the planning and must
still make me necessary decisions based upon the information supplied by the
computer. The computer can not take over this responsibility. Equally important
is
the fact that the computer output is only as accurate as its input which is supplied
in the first instance by human beings.

Basic Terms
To understand the network techniques one should be familiar with few basic
terms of which both CPM and PERT are special applications.
Network: It is the graphic representation of logically and sequentially connected
arrows and nodes representing activities and events of a project. Networks are
also called arrow diagram.
Activity: An activity represents some action and is a time consuming effort
necessary to complete a particular part of the overall project. Thus, each and
every activity has a point of time where it begins and a point where it ends.

Event: The beginning and end points of an activity are called events or nodes.
Event is a point in the time and does not consume any resource. It is represented
by a numbered circle. The head event called the jth event has always a number
higher than the tail event called the ith event.

Merge and Burst Events: It is not necessary for an event to be the ending event
of only one activity but can be the ending event of two or more activities. Such
event is defined as a merge event.
If the event happens to be the beginning event of two or more activities it is
defined as a burst event.

Preceding, Succeeding and Concurrent Activities: Activities, which must be

accomplished before a given event can occur are termed as preceding activities.
Activities, which cannot be accomplished until an event has occurred are
termed as succeeding activities.
Activities, which can be accomplished concurrently are known as concurrent
activities.
Dummy Activity: Certain activities, which neither consumes time nor resources
but are used simply to represent a connection or a link between the events are
known as dummies. It is shown in the network by a dotted line. The purpose of
introducing dummy activity is as follows:
(i) To maintain uniqueness in the numbering system as every activity may have
distinct set of events by which the activity can be identified.
(ii) To maintain a proper logic in the network.

Common Errors
Following are the three common errors in a network construction:
Looping (cycling): In a network diagram looping error is also known as cycling
error. Drawing an endless loop in a network is known as error of looping. A loop
can be formed if an activity were represented as going back in time.

Dangling: To disconnect an activity before the completion of all the activities in

a
network diagram is known as dangling.

Redundancy: If a dummy activity is the only activity emanating from an event

and
which can be eliminated is known as redundancy.
Rules of Network Construction
There are a number of rules in connection with the handling of events and
activities
of a project network that should be followed.
(i) Try to avoid arrows which cross each other.
(ii) Use straight arrows.
(iii) No event can occur until every activity preceding it has been completed.
(iv) An event cannot occur twice, i.e., there must be no loops.
(v) An activity succeeding an event cannot be started until that event has
occurred.
(vi) Use arrows from left to right. Avoid mixing two directions. Vertical and
standing arrows may be used if necessary.
(vii) Dummies should be introduced if it is extremely necessary.
(viii) The network has only one entry point called the start event and one point of
emergence called the end or terminal event.

Numbering the Events (Fulkerson’s Rule)

After the network is drawn in a logical sequence, every event is assigned a
number.
The number sequence must reflect the flow of the network. In numbering the
events the following rules should be observed:
(i) Event numbers should be unique.
(ii) Event numbering should be carried out on a sequential basis from left to
right.
(iii) The initial event which has all outgoing arrows with no incoming arrow is
numbered as 1.
(iv) Delete all arrows emerging from all the numbered events. This will create at
least one new start event out of the preceding events.
(v) Number all new start events 2, 3 and so on. Repeat this process until all the
terminal event without any successor activity is reached. Number the terminal
node suitably.
Note: The head of an arrow should always bear a number higher than the one
assigned to the
tail of the arrow.
Critical path method

CPM
uses two time and two cost estimates for each activity (one time-cost estimate for
the normal situation and the other estimate for the crash situation) but does not
incorporate any statistical analysis in determining such time estimates. CPM
operates on the assumption that there is a precise known time that each activity
in
the project will take.

Time Analysis
Once the network of a project is constructed the time analysis of the network
becomes essential for planning various activities of the project. An activity time
is
a forecast of the time an activity is expected to take from its starting point to its
completion (under normal conditions).
We shall use the following notation for basic scheduling computations.
(i, j) = Activity (i, j) with tail event i and head event j
Tij = Estimated completion time of activity (i, j)
(ES)ij = Earliest starting time of activity (i, j)
(EF)ij = Earliest finishing time of activity (i, j)
(LS)ij = Latest starting time of activity (i, j)
(LF)ij = Latest finishing time of activity (i, j)

Network diagram notes

Merge and Burst Events: It may be pointed out that it is not necessary for
an event to be the ending event of only one activity but an event can be the
ending event of two or more activities in which case the said event is technically
described as merge event. Similarly, if the event happens to be
the beginning event of two or more activities it is technically called as the
‘Burst Event’.
Preceding, Succeeding and Concurrent Activities: The activities can be
classified as preceding activities; succeeding activities and the concurrent
activities. Activities which most be accomplished before a given event can
occur are termed as preceding activities; activities which cannot be
accomplished until an event has occurred are termed as succeeding
activities and activities which can be accomplished concurrently are known
as concurrent activities. This classification is relative which means that
one activity can be preceding to a certain event and the same activity can be
succeeding to some other event or it may be a concurrent activity with one
or more of the activities.
Dummy Activities: Some times we use dummy activities in the preparation
of network diagram. Such activities are to designate a precedence
relationship and in the network diagram are shown as broken lines. They
are characterized by their use of zero time and zero resource. Their main
function is to help in assuring that the activities and events in a network
diagram are in proper sequence.
Path and Critical Path: A path is continuous chain of activities through a
network which connects the first event to the last event. Critical path consists
of the sequence of those events and connected activities that require the
maximum time in the completion of the project. It is that path which takes
the longest time. It is known as critical because it controls the completion
date of the project. The length of this path determines the minimum time in
which the project may be completed.
Critical Activities or Bottleneck Activities: All the activities associated
with the critical path are called as critical or bottleneck activities. Any
delay in the completion of one or more of these activities will cause delay in
the completion date of the project. Hence, such activities require special
attention of the project incharge.
Earlier Start Time or Est: Est for an activity is the earliest possible time an
activity can begin on the assumption that all activities preceding to it started
at the earliest possible times.
Earliest Finish Time or Eft: Eft is the sum of the earliest start time and the
estimated time to perform the concerning activity.
Latest Finish Time or Lft: Lft for an activity is the latest possible time an
activity can finish without delaying the project beyond its dead line on the
assumption that all the subsequent activities are performed as planned.
Latest Start Time (or Lst): Lst for an activity is the difference between the
latest finish time and the estimated time for the activity to be performed.

Float (Total, Interfering Independent and Free floats): Total float is the duration
by which an activity can be
delayed without delaying the project and can be worked out as either (Lst-
Est) or (Lft-Eft). Interfering float is that part of the total float which causes
a reduction in the float of the successor activity or activities.
Free float is that portion of
the total float within which an activity can be manipulated without affecting
the float of subsequent activities. It is worked out by subtracting the head
event slack from the total float.
Independent float is that portion of
the total float within which an activity can be delayed for started without
affecting float of the preceding activities.
Float may be positive or negative. Positive float indicates that the activities
concerned have certain amount of spare time and can be delayed without
effecting the project duration. On the other hand, negative float highlights
the situation in which the activities concerned are short of time and unless
their duration (to the extent of negative float) is reduced, completion of the
project by the target time cannot be assured. Thus, negative float indicates
the extent of criticality of the activities.

Slack: The term slack is normally associated with events. It indicates the
amount of latitude that is available for an event to occur. It is worked out as
under:
Slack of an event = (Latest occurence time of the event) – (Earlier occurence
time of the event) or simply slack of event = (LT – ET). Slack can be positive or
negative depending upon whether the targetted date of completion is later or
earlier
than the earliest finish time of the task respectively.
When used for activities, the term slack should be used for activity slack
(activity slack is synonymous to float). Since slack is associated with the events,
each activity will have two slacks which includes the slack of its head event or
the
head slack and the slack of its tail event or the tail slack.

PERT
The network methods discussed so far may be termed as deterministic, since
estimated activity times are assumed to be known with certainty. However, in
research project or design of gear box of a new machine, various activities are
based on judgement. It is difficult to obtain a reliable time estimate due to the
changing technology. Time values are subject to chance variations. For such cases
where the activities are non-deterministic in nature, PERT was developed. Hence,
PERT is a probabilistic method where the activity times are represented by a
probability distribution. This probability distribution of activity times is based
upon
three different time estimates made for each activity. These are as follows:
(i) Optimistic time estimate
(ii) Most likely time estimate
(iii) Pessimistic time estimate
Optimistic Time Estimate: It is the smallest time taken to complete the activity
if everything goes on well. There is very little chance that activity can be done in
time less than the optimistic time. It is denoted by t0 or a.
Most Likely Time Estimate: It refers to the estimate of the normal time the
activity would take. This assumes normal delays. It is the mode of the probability
distribution. It is denoted by tm or (m).
Pessimistic Time Estimate: It is the longest time that an activity would take if
everything goes wrong. It is denoted by tp or b. These three time values are shown
in the following figure.
COMPARISON AND LIMITATIONS OF PERT
AND CPM

1. CPM is activity oriented, i.e., CPM network is built on the basis of activities.
Also results of various calculations are considered in terms of activities of
the project. On the other hand, PERT is event oriented.

2. CPM is a deterministic model, i.e., it dose not take into account the
uncertainties
involved in the estimation of time for execution of a job or an activity. It
completely ignores the probabilistic element of the problem. PERT however
is a probabilistic model. It uses three estimates of the activity time- optimistic,
pessimistic and most likely with a view to take into account time uncertainty.
Thus the expected duration of each activity is probabilistic indicates that there
is fifty percent probability of getting the job done within the time.
3. CPM places dual emphasis on time and cost and evaluates the trade off
between project cost and project time. It allows the project manager to
manipulate project duration within certain limits so that project duration can
be shortened to an optimal cost. On the other hand PERT is primarily
concerned with time. It helps the manager to schedule and coordinate various
activities so that the project can be completed on scheduled time.
4. Since the Critical Path Method does not account for uncertainty, it is best
used in projects where the activity time estimate can be predicted fairly
accurately. For example, for repetitive projects you can estimate the time
for each activity quite accurately from past experience. Whereas for projects
that have a higher degree of uncertainty, use the PERT Network. Most
software projects will require you to account for a high degree of uncertainty.
5. Another difference in PERT and CPM is in how the diagrams are drawn. In
PERT, events are placed in circles or rectangles to emphasize a point in
time. Tasks are indicated by the lines connecting the network of events. In
CPM the emphasis is on the tasks, which are placed in circles. The circles
are then connected with lines to indicate the relationship between the tasks.
CPM use has become more widespread than the use of PERT applications.

PERT and CPM are used together because they have similarities. For example,
PERT and CPM both assume that a small set of activities, which make up the
longest path through the activity network control the entire project. In addition to
that, PERT and CPM also share the following six key assumptions:
1. All tasks have distinct beginning and end points.
2. All estimates can be mathematically derived.
3. Tasks must be able to be arranged in a defined sequence that produces a
pre defined result.
4. Resources may be shifted to meet the need.
5. Cost and time share a direct relationship, i.e., cost of each activity is evenly
spread over time.
6. Time, of itself, has no value.
When used together, PERT and CPM can provide:
A range of time estimates (by PERT).
Likely time estimates (by PERT and CPM).

Cost estimates (by CPM).

Time and costs if crashed (by CPM).
Probabilities of completion on time for a range of times (by PERT).
A clear path of tasks that are critical to the project (by PERT and CPM).
A central focus for solid communications on project issues (by PERT and
CPM).

Limitations of PERT/CPM
 Clearly defined, independent and stable activities.
Specified precedence relationships.
Over emphasis on critical paths.
Deterministic CPM model.
Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment. If the
estimates are subjective, then it compromises the purpose of the formula.
The weighted estimate and standard deviation will not accurately depict the
amount of time required for each task. In case where there is little experience
in performing the activity, these estimates may be only a guess. Moreover if
the person or group performing the activity estimates the time, there may be
a bias in the estimate.
PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual
distribution may be different.
Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the
probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as that of
the critical path. PERT consistently underestimates the expected project
completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical. Under estimation
of time can cause huge problems in project management. Not only can it
cause the project to fall behind, but it can also cause overages in budget
when employees are either forced to pull overtime to meet project deadlines
or the project might over extend what was budgeted resource wise, thus
causing a problem with over allocation.

---------------------- Good Luck ---------------------------