Grain and Feed Update - Beijing - China - People's Republic of - CH2023-0015
Grain and Feed Update - Beijing - China - People's Republic of - CH2023-0015
Grain and Feed Update - Beijing - China - People's Republic of - CH2023-0015
Post: Beijing
Report Highlights:
Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data
indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the
northeast. Feed mills have resumed mixing more corn in feed rations as higher prices for wheat and
sorghum reduce demand for corn alternatives. At the same time, Brazilian corn is now available and
priced competitively with domestic corn. Sorghum imports are forecast down significantly in
MY2022/23 with a smaller U.S. crop and high prices. Rice imports are forecast lower with smaller
production in supplying markets and owing to a rice-related export ban in one of those countries.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY
STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Note: This report compares Post information with USDA’s January 2023 estimates and forecasts for
MY2020/21, MY2021/22, and MY2022/23. FAS China GAIN reports do not represent official USDA
information.
China's MY2022/23 grains for feed and residual use is forecast to remain stable with little change from
MY2021/22 while the forecast for overall feed production should increase slightly. The swine inventory
in calendar year 2023 is forecast to decrease by 1 percent. For more information on animal, poultry, and
related agricultural production changes see the 2022 China Livestock and Products Annual and 2022
China Poultry and Products Annual reports.
China Feed Industry Association (CFIA) data through November 2022 indicates total industrial feed
production for MY2021/22 was almost unchanged from MY2020/21. Monthly feed production in 2022
saw incremental month-on-month growth from April to October while feed production in November
dropped three percent from the previous month. December feed production is projected to further
decline from November, as COVID rapidly spread through the population following a sudden total
relaxation of the zero-COVID control policies in early December. According to industry contacts, the
disease spread resulted in periods of production suspensions at some feed mills. Total October and
November feed production was still six percent higher than the same period last year.
Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) statistics in early December 2022 placed the
November sow herd at 43.8 million head, 0.2 percent higher than the previous month, or 2.1 percent
higher than last year. MARA considers this slightly above its “targeted” range of reasonable inventory
capacity. Hog prices at both spot and futures markets have declined notably since early November when
largescale hog producers culled hogs in preparation for the end of the year and the Spring Festival (also
known as Lunar New Year).
The poultry industry was impacted in 2022 by rising feed costs and weak consumption. Post believes
overall poultry sector and chicken production to remain steady in 2023.
Corn
Corn production in MY2022/23 is adjusted to 277.2 MMT, up 1.7 percent or 4.6 MMT from last year
owing to higher yields on policy-driven lower planting acreage. Production loss from the water logging
in portions of the Northeast was offset by the bumper harvest in the North China Plain (NCP) region,
particularly in Henan and Shandong provinces. It is worth noting that the official government estimates
astonished industry contacts and analysts which estimate production closer to 267.5 MMT to 272 MMT
output due a lower planted area with intercropping and extreme weather in the Northeast. Both
Northeast and NCP new crop corn are reportedly good quality with low mold and vomitoxin rates.
Post’s MY2022/23 feed corn and residual use forecast is 4 MMT more than USDA’s January estimate,
as feed mills mix more corn in rations with more local supply and lower imported corn prices. Feed
mills report more corn in rations each month since July 2022. Compound feed was estimated an average
35 percent corn in the first eleven months of 2022, 4 percent higher than 2021, but still dramatically
lower than the more traditional 50 to 55 percent in 2019 and before.
Despite the official reports of a bumper harvest, fourth quarter 2022 local corn prices remained high at
U.S. $404 (RMB 2,827) per MT, up 3.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, or up 12.5 percent from October
2021 Wheat is currently U.S. $55 (RMB 387) per MT higher than corn, pushing wheat out of rations as
a viable alternative.
Post forecasts MY2022/23 corn demand for industrial use to fall from MY2021/22. Corn starch plants
operated at an average 56 percent of capacity in the last quarter of 2022, down 10 percent from the
previous year. Starch plants continue to struggle operating at a loss with high corn prices. Food and
industrial ethanol plants operated at an average of 43 percent of capacity in the first ten months, up 6
percent year-on-year, on strong demand for ethanol as a sanitizer, but remain unprofitable.
Chart 1. China: Percentage of Corn used in Compound Feed
Post forecasts MY2022/23 corn imports at 18 MMT, the same as USDA's official estimate.
China currently holds contracts for 3.7 MMT of U.S. corn for delivery in MY2022/23, 70 percent less
than the same time last year. Customs data shows 600,000 MT of U.S. corn exported to China each
month in both October and November, the lowest monthly volume in two years.
With the arrival of the first vessel of Brazilian corn in early January 2023, China will likely turn to
Brazil for a substantial amount of its corn imports. Brazil is projected to have 40-50 MMT corn export
capacity in MY2022/23. China agreed to temporarily waive a key clause in the phytosanitary protocol
re-signed with Brazil in May 2022, in part to reduce dependence on the United States and replace
supplies cut off from Ukraine owing to Putin’s brutal war of aggression and the volatility surrounding
the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). In October, China approved over 130 Brazilian facilities for
export. Industry sources reported close to 2 MMT of Brazilian corn was planned to sail to China from
November 4 2022. According to industry contacts, over 900,000 MT was loaded by mid-December and
was en route with additional shipments expected in the first few months of 2023.
Southern American corn is relatively lower priced compared with U.S. corn. New crop Brazilian corn is
reportedly quoted at U.S.$400 (RMB 2,800) per MT after tariff (i.e., delivered duties paid or DDP) for
January delivery and U.S.$371 (RMB 2,600) per MT for 3rd quarter 2023. While January 2023 arrival
U.S. corn is quoted at U.S. $423 (RMB2,960) per MT DDP at Guangdong ports and U.S.$400
(RMB2,800) per MT DDP for June delivery. The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt trade from China’s
other leading supplier, but the current resumption of the BSGI deal allowed China to continue to import
Ukrainian corn, which is reportedly quoted at U.S.$379 (RMB 2,650) per MT for June delivery. Corn
prices in southern Guangdong province for domestic corn shipped form the Northeast averaged U.S.
$427 (RMB 2,990) per MT at the end of 2022.
On January 11, the PRC Ministry of Commerce issued notices on the expiry review of the antidumping
(AD) and export subsidy (i.e., countervailing duty, or CVD) measures imposed on U.S. Distillers Dried
Grains with or without Solubles (DDGS) which found continued harm to the domestic industry if the
AD/CVD measures were removed. As a result, China will continue to collect AD and CVD duties on
U.S. DDGS for five more years. For more information see GAIN CH2023-0005.
Table 3. China: Imported Coarse Grain and Substitute Prices in Major Ports
Grain RMB Price U.S. Dollar Price
Local Corn 2,800-2,990 $400-427
Imported U.S. Corn 2,960 $423
Imported Brazilian and Corn (quote for 2,770-2,854 $396-408
early 2023 delivery)
Imported U.S. Sorghum 4,227 $604
Imported Argentine and Australian 2,804-3,064 $401-438
Sorghum
Imported feed quality Australian (subject to 2,100-2,951 $300-422
AD/CVD), French and Argentine Barley
Local Wheat 3,200 $457
Imported U.S. Wheat 3,200-3,500 $457-500
Imported feed quality Australian Wheat 2,700 $386
Imported Indian Broken Rice 2,900 $417
Imported U.S. DDGs (without AD/CVD) 2,773 $396
Unit: RMB per metric ton, exchange Rate as of December 29, 2022 U.S. $1= RMB 7
Sorghum consumption in MY2022/23 is expected to decline from MY2021/22 levels with decreased
imports. Feed mills have exhibited increased flexibility in grain substitution in their feed formulas over
the last several years, making procurement even more price-driven than in the past. In addition, The
China Liquor Industry Association reported liquor production in the first eleven months decreased by
4.7 percent year-on-year.
China continues to diversify its grain imports sources. On October 14, China signed a phytosanitary
protocol with Uruguay to authorize Uruguay export sorghum to China. However, industry sources
postulate that Uruguay’s export potential to China will be relatively small.
Sorghum 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023
Market Year Begins Oct 2020 Oct 2021 Oct 2022
China USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 635 635 630 630 630 630
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 34 34 269 269 255 255
Production (1000 MT) 2970 2970 3000 3000 3000 3000
MY Imports (1000 MT) 8669 8669 10991 10991 5600 5600
TY Imports (1000 MT) 8669 8669 10991 10991 5600 5600
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT) 6511 6511 6435 6435 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 11673 11673 14260 14260 8855 8855
MY Exports (1000 MT) 4 4 5 5 30 30
TY Exports (1000 MT) 4 4 5 5 30 30
Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 8700 8700 11000 11000 5600 5600
FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 2700 2700 3000 3000 3000 3000
Total Consumption (1000 MT) 11400 11400 14000 14000 8600 8600
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 269 269 255 255 225 225
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 11673 11673 14260 14260 8855 8855
Yield (MT/HA) 4.6772 4.6772 4.7619 4.7619 4.7619 4.7619
Barley
There are no changes for barley production, supply, and distribution figures for MY2020/21,
MY2021/22, or MY2022/23. The NBS reported 0.5 percent year-over-year more beer production in the
first eleven months of 2022. With diversified import sources and relatively good prices, there are still
chances China will import barley for feed in MY2022/23. In early December, China reportedly bought a
few boats of new crop French barley for January 2023 delivery at U.S.$393 (RMB 2,750) per MT. The
Australian government is reportedly seeking negotiation with China to reopen barley trade with requests
to PRC authorities to revoke their AD/CVD duties on Australian barley. Russian barley could be another
option with a cost and freight (CNF) quote at U.S.$394 (RMB 2,761) per MT in late November,
however logistics challenges remain. There were approximately 330,000 MT of barley stocks, mostly
Canadian barley for malt use, at major Chinese importing ports at the end of 2022.
Wheat
Wheat production in MY 2022/23 is adjusted to 137.7 MMT, up 0.6 percent or 0.8 MMT from last year
owing to better yields. MARA claimed MY2022/23 wheat was of great quality, according to the “2022
Quality Monitor Report on New Crop Wheat in 13 Provinces” published by the State Administration of
Food and Strategic Reserve (SAFSR) in November. The report indicated more than 96 percent of the
newly harvested wheat was recorded above 3rd class quality and 63 percent met 1st class quality
standards. MY 2023/24 winter wheat planting is underway with no issues reported. The top producing
province, Henan, reported its best growing status in recent years with 90 percent 1st class seedlings, 12
percent higher than last year, and 3 percent better than normal years.
Post’s MY2022/23 and MY2021/22 wheat consumption for feed and fodder are both 5 MMT lower
than previous estimates and in line with USDA’s January update. After a short stumble due to COVID
waves spreading through China in November and December, local wheat prices resumed upward to U.S.
$471 (RMB 3,300) per MT in December, close to a 20 percent jump from early 2022. The wheat-corn
price gap continued to widen during the year and is roughly U.S. $57 (RMB 400) per MT at present
compared to roughly U.S. -$38 (RMB -260) per MT the previous year. SAFSR affiliated National Grain
& Oils Information Center (NGOIC) estimated 55 MMT of wheat were used for feed in MY2020/21 and
20 MMT were used in MY2021/22.
Chart 3. China: Wheat, Corn, Rice Price Comparisons
China reportedly aggressively purchased Australian and French wheat at cheap prices. Customs data
showed China imported 5.2 MMT of Australian wheat and 1.6 MMT of French wheat in the first eleven
months of 2022, up by 135 percent and 52 percent respectively. The imports accounts for more than 70
percent of China’s wheat tariff rate quota (TRQ) level of 9.636 MMT for calendar year 2022.
As of November 1, China allowed the import of wheat flour from Belarus if it meets inspection and
quarantine requirements. From 2018-2020, China imported 200,000-300,000 MT of wheat flour mainly
from Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan. The import volume was cut by about 75 percent in 2021 and
2022. Mills in Northeast China reportedly have used some Russian wheat flour to replace corn with
prices of U.S.$ 357 (RMB 2,500) per MT.
On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) set the 2023 Minimum
Support Price (MSP) for wheat procurement at U.S.$334 (RMB 2,340) per MT, up from U.S. $329
(RMB 2,300) per MT in 2022. Domestic wheat prices remain significantly above the government’s
MSP. The MSP was not triggered in 2022 and is once again not expected to be triggered in 2023. The
increase in MSP remains too low according to industry contacts to provide incentive for farmers to
expand their wheat area.
Rice
Milled rice production in MY 2022/23 is adjusted to 146 MMT, down by 2 percent or 1 MMT from last
year owing to both lower planting area and yields, because of drought on mid and late-season crops.
Domestic rice prices increased slightly in response to local production loss and international price
fluctuations.
Table 4: China: Old Stock Rice Auctions in 2020-2022
Auction Period Amount Amount Notes
Offered Sold
2020 14.5 MMT 9.2 MMT
March 31-October 48 MMT 15.6 MMT -Floor price increased from RMB1,300 to 1,500
14, 2021 per ton
-Rice mixed with wheat to be used in feed -2
MMT rice offered each week
March 17 to April 7, 40.5 4.5 MMT -500,000—1 MMT rice offered each week
2022
May 19-September 24.6 MMT -Floor price increased from RMB1,500 to
2022 RMB1,600—1,700 per ton
-2 MMT rice was offered every other week
Source: Post Industry Sources
MY2022/23 rice consumption for feed and fodder are estimated to be 2 MMT lower than MY2021/22
due to fewer imports from India and Pakistan. The state reserve sold a total of 29.1 MMT of feed-grade
old stock paddy rice in 2022. The current spot price for old stock brown rice still has a price advantage
over other corn substitutes in Northeast, NCP, and South China. Some feed mills in these provinces
report replacing as much as 20 percent of corn with brown rice in swine feed formulas. SAFSR affiliated
National Grain & Oils Information Center (NGOIC) estimated around 30 MMT of paddy rice for feed
use annually over the past three years.
Rice imports forecast for MY2022/23 are decreased to 5.2 MMT, 300,000 MT lower than Post’s
September estimate on lower Indian and Pakistan rice output and India’s broken rice export ban that was
issued in September.
China’s 2022 rice imports exceeded its 5.32 MMT tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) for the first time in history.
According to China Customs data, from January to November 2022, China imported 5.7 MMT of rice,
an increase of 32.2 percent year-on-year. As grain and oilseed imports have dropped due to higher world
prices, China’s rice imports have risen due to steady world supplies, relatively stable import prices, and
increased demand from China’s livestock feed sector. Most import growth was driven by low-priced
broken rice from India (2 MMT, up 101 percent), Pakistan (650,079 MT, up 88 percent), and Thailand
(203,668 MMT, up 31 percent).
However, China will face challenges to continue importing broken rice as a corn substitute with both
production and exports forecast down in Pakistan and India. China’s October rice imports slumped by
19 percent from September, among which imports of Indian broken rice dropped 66 percent month-on-
month. November imports were even lower. October and November average unit prices of imported
broken rice also increased by 6 percent to U.S.$ 399 per MT. As such, imported broken rice has lost its
price advantage over other feed grains.
Chart 4. China: China’s Rice Import 2017-2022
Source: TDM
Source: TDM
Though rice stock levels are not publicly available, the industry consensus maintains overall rice
volumes in the national reserve for food use are stable and sufficient.
In November, the SAFSR launched an MSP program in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, and
Heilongjiang provinces to prop up the new crop rice prices. Post estimates that the state reserve bought
close to 2 MMT of new crop rice under MSP in November. As the domestic rice prices started to rise
above the MSP level, the state reserve may not buy much rice under the price support program in
December.
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