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Lecture 6

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Lecture 6

Uploaded by

علي سعيد سعود
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Project Management Lecture -6

Critical Path Method (CPM)


What Is the Critical Path of a Project?

In project management, the critical path is the longest sequence of tasks that must be completed to
complete a project. The tasks on the critical path are called critical activities because if they’re delayed,
the whole project completion will be delayed.

When done properly, critical path analysis can help you:


1. Identify task dependencies, resource constraints and project risks
2. Accurately estimate the duration of each task
3. Prioritize tasks based on their float or slack time, which helps with project scheduling and
resource allocation
4. Identify critical tasks that have no slack and make sure those are completed on time
5. Monitor your project progress and measure schedule variance
6. Use schedule compression techniques like crash duration or fast tracking

CPM Key Elements


Before we learn the steps to calculate the critical path, we’ll need to understand some key CPM
concepts.

Earliest start time (ES): This is simply the earliest time that a task can be started in your project. You
cannot determine this without first knowing if there are any task dependencies
Latest start time (LS): This is the very last minute in which you can start a task before it threatens to
delay your project schedule
Earliest finish time (EF): The earliest an activity can be completed, based on its duration and its earliest
start time
Latest finish time (LF): The latest an activity can be completed, based on its duration and its latest start
time
Float: Also known as slack, float is a term that describes how long you can delay a task before it
impacts its task sequence and the project schedule. The tasks on the critical path have zero float,
because they can’t be delayed
Let’s take a look at some critical path examples to better understand these critical path analysis
elements.
Project Management Lecture -6

How to Find the Critical Path of a Project in 8 Steps


Now that you know the key concepts of the critical path method, here’s how to calculate the critical
path in 8 steps.
1. Collect Project Activities
Use a work breakdown structure to collect all the project activities that lead to the final deliverable.
2. Identify Task Dependencies
Figure out which tasks are dependent on other tasks before they can begin. Use your judgment and your
team members’ feedback. Failing to define task dependencies correctly makes the critical path method
useless. There are four types of task dependencies:
Finish to start: This means an activity cannot start before its predecessor is finished.
Start to start: Use this when two activities can begin simultaneously.
Finish to finish: Use this when activities must finish together.
Start to finish: Use this when one activity cannot finish until another one starts.

3. Create a Critical Path Diagram


A critical path analysis chart, or network diagram, depicts the order of activities.
4. Estimate Timeline
To use the critical path method, you’ll need to estimate the duration of each task. Use data from past
projects and other sources of information such as subject matter experts.
5. Use the Critical Path Algorithm
The critical path algorithm has two parts; a forward pass and a backwards pass.
Forward Pass
Use the network diagram and the estimated duration of each activity to determine their earliest start
(ES) and earliest finish (EF). The ES of an activity is equal to the EF of its predecessor, and its EF is
determined by the formula EF = ES + t (t is the activity duration). The EF of the last activity identifies
the expected time required to complete the entire project.
Backward Pass
Begins by assigning the last activity’s earliest finish as its latest finish. Then the formula to find the LS
is LS = LF – t (t is the activity duration). For the previous activities, the LF is the smallest of the start
times for the activity that immediately follows.
6. Identify the Float or Slack of Each Activity
Use this formula to determine the float or slack of each task. Float = LS – ES
7. Identify the Critical Path
The activities with 0 float make up the critical path. All of these critical path activities are dependent
tasks except for the first task in your CPM schedule. All project tasks with positive slack are parallel
tasks to the critical path activities.
8. Revise During Execution
Continue to update the critical path network diagram as you go through the execution phase.
These critical path analysis steps determine what tasks are critical and which can float, meaning they
can be delayed without negatively impacting the project schedule. Now you have the information you
need to plan the critical path schedule more accurately and have more of a guarantee you’ll meet your
project deadline.
You also need to consider other changes or constraints that might change the project schedule. The
more you can account for these unexpected events or risks, the more accurate your critical path
schedule will be. If time is added to the project because of these constraints, that is called a critical path
drag, which is how much longer a project will take because of the task and constraint.
Project Management Lecture -6
Project Management Lecture -6

Examples in Critical Path Method


1-
Project Management Lecture -6

2-
Find the :1-Project duration 2-Critical path

Duration
Activity Precedents
in week
A 6 –
B 4 –
C 3 A
D 4 B
E 3 B
F 10 –
G 3 E, F
H 2 C, D

Exercises : Find the :1-Project duration 2-Critical path


Activity Time Precedents
Activity Time Precedents
A 5 –
A 5 –
B 5 –
B 3 A
C 6 A
C 4 A D 13 B
D 2 B,C E 6 B
E 3 D F 4 –
G 9 E, F
H 2 C, D
Project Management Lecture -6

A PERT chart Method


A PERT chart, sometimes called a PERT diagram, is a project management tool used to
schedule, organize and coordinate tasks within a project. It provides a graphical representation
of a project's timeline that enables project managers to break down each task for analysis.

The PERT chart template uses nodes -- drawn as rectangles or circles -- to represent events and
milestones throughout the project. The nodes are connected by vectors -- drawn as lines --
which represent the various tasks that need to be completed.

PERT stands for Program Evaluation Review Technique, a methodology developed by the U.S.
Navy in the 1950s to manage the Polaris submarine missile program. A similar methodology,
the critical path method (CPM) was developed for project management in the private sector at
about the same time.

When to use a PERT chart


PERT charts should be used when a project manager needs to:

 determine the project's critical path in order to guarantee all deadlines are met;
 display the various interdependencies of tasks;
 estimate the amount of time needed to complete the project; and prepare for more
complex and larger projects.
 Project managers find best results when they use a PERT chart at the beginning of the
project.
 Doing so helps ensure the project is accurately scoped and can help avoid any potential
bottlenecks in the process.

Here is a list of terms associated with PERT charts:

 Nodes are visual representations of milestones or events within the project. They are
drawn as either numbered boxes or numbered circles.
 Arrows are visual representations of the tasks that occur throughout the project. The
direction of the arrow indicates the sequence of the task. Diverging arrows show that
various tasks can be completed at the same time.
 Fast tracking is when tasks and activities are performed simultaneously.
 A PERT event is the point at which one or more tasks are started or completed.
 A predecessor event occurs immediately before some events. A successor event
naturally occurs after events.
 Slack is the amount of time a single task can be delayed without harming other tasks or
the project as a whole.
 The critical path is the longest -- or most time-consuming -- path from the start to the
completion of an event or task.
 Critical path activity refers to a task that does not experience slack.
Project Management Lecture -6

 Crashing critical path is when the completion time of a task is shortened.


 Lag time refers to the earliest point at which a task can follow another.
 Lead time is the amount of time it should take to complete a task without impacting the
following activities.
 Expected time is the best estimation of how long a task will take to complete, taking into
consideration any problems or obstacles that might arise.
Expected time = ( Optimistic + 4 x Most likely + Pessimistic) / 6
 Optimistic time (To) refers to the minimum amount of time it will take to complete a
task.
 Pessimistic time (Tp) is the maximum amount of time it will take to finish a task.
 Most likely time (Tm) is the best guess of how long a task will take, assuming no
problems arise.

The PERT Formula


The PERT formula to calculate the PERT estimate is as follows:

PERT Estimate = (Tp + 4Tm + To) / 6

And Standard Deviation SD = (Tp – To) / 6 while Variance is the square of the SD

Z= Ts – T/ Scp

Z= The probability of completing the project


T= ∑ t critical ) Expected time(
Scp= √ for critical path only
T = The time at which the probability is to be found

The value of Z is searched for in the moderate distribution table to extract the
probability of project completion. When the probability value is less than 25%, there is a
great risk that the project will not end on time. 50% is an acceptable probability and
indicates the possibility of implementing the project. More than 50% means that there is
waste in the use of resources in the project.
Project Management Lecture -6

Examples in A PERT chart Method


1-Find the Expected time and Critical path
Project Management Lecture -6

2- Find the Critical path

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