2311 - STEO Report

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 51

Short-Term

Energy Outlook
STEO
November 2023
November 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), prepared this report. By law, our data, analyses, and forecasts are
independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government. The views in this
report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 1


November 2023

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Overview
U.S. energy market indicators 2022 2023 2024

Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) $101 $84 $93

Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) $3.97 $3.55 $3.61

U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) 11.91 12.90 13.15
Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British
thermal units) $6.42 $2.67 $3.25
U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet
per day) 10.6 11.8 12.3
Shares of U.S. electricity generation
Natural gas 39% 42% 41%
Coal 20% 16% 15%
Renewables 21% 22% 24%
Nuclear 19% 19% 19%
U.S. GDP (percentage change) 1.9% 2.4% 1.5%
U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) 4.94 4.79 4.75
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

• Global oil supply. We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.0 million barrels per
day (b/d) in 2024. Ongoing OPEC+ production cuts will offset production growth from non-OPEC
countries and help maintain a relatively balanced global oil market next year. Although the conflict
between Israel and Hamas has not affected physical oil supply at this point, uncertainties
surrounding the conflict and other global oil supply conditions could put upward pressure on crude
oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will increase from an average
of $90 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2023 to an average of $93/b in 2024.

• U.S. gasoline consumption. U.S. gasoline consumption declines by 1% in 2024 in our forecast, which
would result in the lowest per capita gasoline consumption in two decades. An increase in remote
work in the United States, improvements in the fuel efficiency of the U.S. vehicle fleet, high gasoline
prices, and persistently high inflation have reduced per capita gasoline demand.

• Natural gas inventories. We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic
(Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S.
natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-
year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas
production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in
the commercial and residential sectors. We forecast the Henry Hub spot price to average near $3.20
per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November, down from a price of almost $5.50/MMBtu
a year earlier.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 2


November 2023

• Coal markets. U.S. coal exports have returned to pre-pandemic levels, driven by record-high global
coal demand stemming primarily from Europe and Asia. We forecast that exports will rise to 97
million short tons (MMst) in 2023, because of increases in both steam and metallurgical coal
exports. We expect steam coal exports to rise by 6 MMst compared with2022 to 45 MMst in 2023
and metallurgical coal exports to increase by 6 MMst to reach 52 MMst over the same period.
Despite this increase in coal exports, we expect U.S. production to fall by more than 100 MMst in
2024 due to reduced demand from the electric power sector. The decline in electricity generation
from coal will be offset by an increase in electricity generation from renewable resources.

• OPEC production capacity. Despite rising OPEC spare production capacity in 2023 and in 2024, we
lowered our estimate of Iraq’s spare capacity by about 0.4 million b/d compared with last month’s
STEO. We removed Iraq’s total production capacity assets in northern Iraq that relied on the
northern Iraq-to-Türkiye pipeline for access to global markets. The pipeline has been out of
commission since March 2023.

Notable forecast changes


Current forecast: November 7, 2023; previous forecast: October 11, 2023 2023 2024
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity (million barrels per day) 3.7 4.3
Previous forecast 4.1 4.9
Percentage change -10.0% -12.0%
U.S. coal power demand (million short tons) 384 356
Previous forecast 373 342
Percentage change 3.1% 4.0%
U.S. coal production (million short tons) 585 480
Previous forecast 581 465
Percentage change 0.7% 3.2%
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 3


November 2023

Global Oil Markets


Global oil supply
We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down
from growth of 1.6 million b/d this year. Although we forecast global oil production to grow next year,
we expect ongoing cuts from OPEC+ will keep global production growth lower than global consumption
growth and contribute to inventory draws and upward oil price pressure in the early part of 2024.

Growth in global crude oil supply has been limited in 2023 because of voluntary production cuts from
Saudi Arabia and ongoing production cuts from other OPEC+ countries, which raised OPEC’s spare crude
oil production capacity from 2.4 million b/d in 2022 to a forecast of 4.3 million b/d in 2024. Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates hold most of this capacity. Despite rising OPEC spare capacity in 2023 and
in 2024, we lowered our estimate of Iraq’s spare capacity compared with last month’s STEO. We
removed production capacity assets in northern Iraq that relied on the northern Iraq-to-Türkiye pipeline
for access to global markets. The pipeline has been offline since March 2023 because of a dispute
between Türkiye and Iraq over an international court ruling.

Although Russia’s total liquids production fell significantly after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early
2022, its production has stabilized in mid-2023 around 10.6 million b/d. We assume Russia’s oil
production will remain relatively flat over the remainder of our forecast period at an average of 10.7
million b/d.

Although it has not directly affected physical oil markets so far, heightened uncertainty around the
recent attacks on Israel and the potential for tensions spreading to a wider area in the Middle East poses
risks to oil supply including available surplus production capacity. At this time, we have not materially

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 4


November 2023

changed our oil production forecast for countries in the region, but the geopolitical situation could
change rapidly.

The United States lifted sanctions on Venezuela’s crude oil exports on October 18 for six months,
contingent on electoral reforms. While the political situation remains in flux, we expect sanctions relief
will only lead to limited increases in oil production. With sanctions relief, we forecast that Venezuela will
increase crude oil production by less than 0.2 million b/d to an average of 0.9 million b/d by the end of
2024. Further increases in Venezuela’s crude oil production will take longer and require significant
investment after years of deferred maintenance and lack of access to capital.

Iran’s crude oil production rose in recent years as it has increased exports to China using heavily
discounted prices. Our assumption is that Iran will raise production by an additional 0.2 million in 2024.
Sanctions on Iran’s crude oil, insufficient upstream investment, and limited oil consumption growth in
China cap Iran’s oil production beyond this limited growth.

Global oil prices and inventory levels


The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $91 per barrel (b) in October, a decrease of $3/b compared with
September, accompanied by a significant increase in oil price volatility. We forecast the Brent crude oil
price will increase from an average of $90/b in the fourth quarter of 2023 to an average of $94/b during
the first half of 2024. Modest upward oil price pressures in the coming months reflect a slight decline in
global oil inventories in the first half of 2024 as risks of supply disruptions remain high. Current OPEC+
production targets are set to expire at the end of 2024, and we assume that continuing voluntary cuts
and other factors will keep actual OPEC+ crude oil production well below targets as the group tries to
limit increases in global oil inventories. However, should OPEC+ produce closer to target levels than we
currently assume, it could reduce prices in 2024.

Petroleum Products
Gasoline prices and margins
U.S. regular gasoline retail prices declined throughout October, falling from $3.80 per gallon (gal) on
October 2 to $3.47/gal on October 30 because of a sharp decline in wholesale gasoline margins that
began in late September. We forecast retail gasoline prices to remain near $3.40/gal for the remainder
of 2023, resulting in an average 2023 price of $3.55/gal. We forecast a similar average near $3.60/gal for
2024.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 5


November 2023

Our forecast that retail gasoline prices will rise in 2024 primarily reflects a higher Brent crude oil price.
We expect crude oil prices to contribute an additional 22 cents/gal to the retail gasoline price in 2024
compared with 2023. However, we expect much of this increase to be offset by decreases in the
wholesale gasoline margin over crude oil. We expect the wholesale gasoline margin with crude oil to
average 52 cents/gal in 2024, a decrease of 14 cents/gal from the forecast 2023 average of 67 cents/gal,
resulting primarily from reduced demand for motor gasoline.

U.S. per capita gasoline consumption


Although the U.S. population has grown in recent years, the nation’s gasoline consumption has
increased more slowly in comparison, meaning U.S. gasoline consumption has been decreasing on a per
capita basis. There are two components to gasoline consumption—travel demand, measured by vehicle
miles traveled (VMT), and vehicle fuel efficiency. Some of the major factors that may be contributing to
the decline in per capita gasoline consumption include:

• The unclear effects of increased remote work on gasoline consumption since 2020. Although a
higher percentage of the workforce engages in some remote work than before the pandemic,
some studies suggest these workers drive more for nonwork purposes.

• Relatively high gasoline prices and persistently high inflation may be affecting consumer budgets
and reducing discretionary driving.

• An aging population is reducing per person driving. Since 2001, the share of population over the
age of 65 has increased, and this age cohort is less likely to be working. Partially offsetting this
trend, however, is increasing employment as a share of the working age population, which has
reached the highest levels since 2001.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 6


November 2023

• The replacement of older and less efficient internal combustion engine vehicles for newer
internal combustion engine vehicles with higher fuel efficiency. Purchases of newer vehicles is
partially offset by people keeping their vehicles longer, contributing to an increase in the
average age of the vehicle fleet.

• Increased adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, which reduces gasoline consumption.

Gradual improvements in fuel efficiency and the growing share of electric vehicles are reducing U.S.
motor gasoline demand per capita. Our gasoline consumption forecast contains a variable for fuel
economy that captures the combined effects that newer, more efficient internal combustion engine
vehicles and electric vehicles have on gasoline consumption. Researchers at Argonne National
Laboratory estimated electric vehicle adoption contributed to about 0.5% less U.S. gasoline
consumption in 2021 than what would have otherwise occurred. The effects of electric vehicle adoption
on gasoline consumption have likely increased since 2021; however, lags in data on vehicle scrappage
rates and evolving telework trends, among other factors, complicate the analysis of attributing the
degree to which electric vehicles have caused more recent declines in gasoline consumption per capita.

We forecast the average person in the United States will consume 402 gallons of gasoline in 2024, down
from a peak of 475 gallons per person in 2004. Because of lower per capita gasoline consumption, we
forecast overall U.S. gasoline consumption to decline in 2024 to 8.83 million barrels per day (b/d), from
8.88 million b/d in 2023 and down from the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 9.31 million b/d.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 7


November 2023

Natural Gas
Natural gas storage
At the end of October, which marks the end of the U.S. natural gas storage injection season (March–
October), we expect that U.S. working natural gas in underground storage reached 3,835 billion cubic
feet (Bcf), 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average.

Driven by strong natural gas production and expected warmer-than-average winter weather, we
forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season in March with 21% more natural
gas than the five-year average, with just under 2,000 Bcf in storage. We expect U.S. dry natural gas
production to average almost 105 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the second half of 2023, up
nearly 2 Bcf/d from the first half of the year. We forecast U.S. dry natural gas production will continue to
average around 105 Bcf/d during the winter heating season. Our expectation of warmer-than-average
winter weather, with 4% fewer heating degree days (HDDs) this winter compared with the prior 10-year
(2013–2022) average, reduces consumption for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors
by 2% compared with the five-year average. Although we expect this winter on average to be warmer
than normal, we expect January and February to be colder than last year’s warmer-than-average
January and February.

Natural gas storage inventories in the East, Midwest, and South Central are all more than 87% full
entering the winter according to our forecast. In the Mountain region, which has much less storage
capacity than the other regions, we estimate storage is 98% full, the highest level on record at the end
of October. Pacific region storage stocks were well below the five-year average all of last winter,

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 8


November 2023

supporting record-high natural gas prices in the region in December 2022, but Pacific inventories have
increased steadily this summer and are almost 80% full entering this winter heating season.

Natural gas prices


The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price in our forecast averages around $3.40 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu) over the course of the winter, peaking in January at over $3.60/MMBtu. Natural
gas prices typically rise during the winter as demand for space heating increases and consumption of
natural gas peaks for the year. We forecast prices this winter to be lower than last winter because of
increased production and relatively full natural gas storage inventories entering the winter heating
season. At the start of the winter last year, prices were over $5.00/MMBtu, and storage inventories
were 3% below the five-year average.

Lower wholesale natural gas prices contribute to lower prices for residential consumers this winter
compared with last year. Changes in residential natural gas prices lag changes in wholesale natural gas
prices because of the nature of some utility regulation. Fixed costs incurred by utility companies are
spread over time, usually resulting in lower residential prices in the winter than in the summer on a per-
unit basis when all charges are combined. We forecast the residential price of natural gas will average
just over $12 per thousand cubic feet this winter, down almost 20% from last year, reducing winter
heating expenditures for consumers that heat their homes with natural gas.

Electricity, Coal, and Renewables


Electricity consumption
Forecast sales of electricity to U.S. customers increase by more than 2% in 2024 after falling by an
estimated 1% in 2023. We expect electricity consumption will grow slightly in most sectors next year,
but mainly in the residential sector. Residential electricity use is sensitive to weather conditions. We

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 9


November 2023

expect winter temperatures in 2024, as measured by heating degree days (HDDs), will be 2% colder than
in 2023. We expect summer temperatures, measured by cooling degree days in our forecast, to be 6%
hotter than in 2023. Both a colder winter and a warmer summer increase electricity use by households.

In addition to weather conditions, macroeconomic conditions affect electricity demand in the


commercial and industrial sectors. Nationwide, we expect retail sales of electricity to these two sectors
to grow slightly in 2024 after a slight decline in 2023. More than 40% of forecast growth in 2024 occurs
in the West South Central Census Division where forecast GDP grows by 1.9% next year compared with
overall U.S. GDP growth of 1.5%.

Electricity generation
Generation from renewable energy sources is the main contributor to growth in U.S. electricity
generation over the STEO forecast horizon. The share of total U.S. generation from renewables rises
from 21% in 2022 to a forecast share of 22% in 2023 and to 24% in 2024. Much of this increase is the
result of an expected 60 gigawatts of new solar generating capacity entering service during 2023 and
2024. We believe that the solar capacity increase, in addition to our forecast of increased hydropower
generation and modest gains in new wind capacity, will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power
plants. We forecast the U.S. natural gas generation share will fall from its record high of 42% in 2023 to
41% in 2024, while coal’s generation share continues to fall from 16% to 15%.

About one-third of the forecast growth in solar capacity occurs in the Texas electricity market. Natural
gas is the largest source of power in that market, and we expect the share of generation from natural
gas in Texas will fall from 46% in 2023 to 41% in 2024, replaced by a significant increase in generation
from solar. New solar and wind capacity also is being added in the Midwest electricity region, which we
expect will lead to reduced generation from coal-fired power plants.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 10


November 2023

Coal markets
Coal production in our forecast totals 585 million short tons (MMst) in 2023 and falls by more than 100
MMst in 2024. The large decrease next year is due to falling demand from the U.S. electric power sector.
Reduced coal production is also a consequence of relatively full coal inventories held by electric
generating plants, in late 2023 there is 50% more coal held by plants than in mid-2022. Even though coal
prices have fallen due to demand reductions, coal-fired power generation is still not cost competitive
based on our expectations that natural gas prices for electric generation will average about
$3.50/MMBtu in 2024.

Declines in U.S. coal production from less domestic demand are partially offset by a return of demand
from export markets to pre-pandemic levels. We forecast that exports will rise by 13% to reach 97 MMst
in 2023, before again falling to 94 MMst in 2024. Exports fell to 69 MMst in 2020 though they returned
to 86 MMst in 2022. The increase in coal exports to pre-pandemic levels is made up of both steam and
metallurgical coal exports to customers in Europe and Asia. Exports to Europe have been bolstered by a
ban on the import of coal from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 11


November 2023

Economy, Weather, and CO2


U.S. macroeconomics
Our forecast assumes real U.S. GDP will grow 2.4% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, similar to our assumptions
in last month’s STEO. Growth in GDP next year is mostly the result of rising consumer expenditures with
a significant contribution from exports as well. Our forecast now assumes that GDP will grow at an
annualized rate of 4.8% in the third quarter of 2023 (3Q23), close to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s
(BEA) 3Q23 advanced estimate of 4.9%. We assume GDP growth will slow in the last quarter, with an
annualized growth rate of 1.7% in 4Q23.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 12


November 2023

Our U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. We incorporate
STEO energy price forecasts into the model to obtain the final macroeconomic assumptions.

Non-farm payroll employment increased by 336,000 jobs in September, but monthly additions are
trending down toward pre-pandemic levels. Additions to non-farm payroll averaged 260,000 jobs per
month in 2023 through September, down from a monthly average of nearly 400,000 jobs in 2022. Our
forecast assumes employment growth will slow further in 2023 and 2024, as the unemployment rate
rises to 4.1% by the end of 2024. S&P Global forecasts that slowing GDP growth and a rising
unemployment rate are necessary for year-over-year inflation to fall to the Federal Reserve’s target of
2%.

Emissions
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increase in our forecast during the last few months
of 2023 relative to October and remain relatively high during the first few months of 2024 as we enter
the winter. Most of these seasonal emissions increases come from increased consumption of coal,
predominantly for electric power, and natural gas for both electricity generation and space heating.
Seasonal emissions typically peak in January in the United States.

We expect slightly less emissions this winter than in recent winters. We forecast 3% less U.S. CO2
emissions between November 2023 and March 2024 than the average over that period during the past
five winters. Less-than-average winter emissions are the result of several factors, including higher-than-
average temperatures, improvements in energy efficiency, and decreases in the carbon intensity of
electricity and space heating.

We expect U.S. CO2 emissions to decrease by 3% for all of 2023. The largest reduction in CO2 emissions is
from decreased use of coal, down 18% from 2022. Emissions from petroleum remain unchanged as

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 13


November 2023

falling gasoline consumption is offset by rising consumption of jet fuel and diesel, and emissions from
natural gas increase slightly. In our forecast, total energy-related U.S. CO2 emissions fall by 1% in 2024.

Weather
In our forecast, we assume a warmer November than last year, with a total of 488 HDDs, 5% fewer than
in November 2022. We expect a colder 1Q24 with 4% more HDDs than in 1Q23. Overall, we expect an
average of around 3,220 HDDs in the United States this winter, about the same as last winter and 4%
fewer than the previous 10-winter average.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 14


Short-Term Energy Outlook
Chart Gallery

November 7, 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price and NYMEX confidence intervals
dollars per barrel 95% NYMEX
160 futures price
140 confidence
interval
120 upper bound
100 West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) spot price
80 STEO forecast
NYMEX
60 futures price
40
95% NYMEX
20 futures price
0 confidence
interval
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
lower bound
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023,
CME Group, Bloomberg, L.P., and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days
ending November 2, 2023. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-
money options contracts.

World
World liquid
liquidfuels
fuelsproduction
productionand consumption
and balance
consumption balance
million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
105
105
worldproduction
world production forecast
forecast
100
100
worldconsumption
world consumption
95
95

90
90

85
85

////
80
80
00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
6
6
4
4 impliedstock
implied stock build
build
2
2
0
0
-2
-2 impliedstock
implied stockdraw
draw
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
World liquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsproduction
production World liquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsconsumption
consumption
million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
120
120 120
120
forecast
forecast forecast
forecast
100
100 100
100

80
80 non-OPEC
non-OPEC 80
80 non-OECD
non-OECD

60
60 60
60

40
40 40
40

Organizationofofthe
Organization the Organizationfor
for
20
20 PetroleumExporting
Exporting
20
20 Organization
Petroleum EconomicCooperation
Economic Cooperation
Countries (OPEC) and Development
Development(OECD
(OECD
00
Countries (OPEC)
00 and ) )
2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

Worldcrude
World crudeoil
oiland
and liquid
liquid fuels
fuels production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
OPEC countries
OPEC countries
105
105 5
5
4.3
4.3 non-OPEC
non-OPEC
Eurasia
Eurasia
4
4 NorthAmerica
North America
100
100 Latin America
Latin America
other non-OPEC
other non-OPEC
3
3
net change
net change
95
95
2
2
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.0
90
90 1
1
monthly history
monthly history
0
0
monthly forecast
monthly forecast
85
85
annual average
annual average -1
-1
//
forecast
forecast
80
0
80 -2
-2
2021
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. crude
U.S. crudeoil
oilproduction
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
14
14 1.2
1.2
0.99
0.99
12
12 1.0
1.0
forecast
forecast
0.8
0.8
10
10 0.64
0.64
0.6
0.6
8
8 monthly history
monthly history
monthly forecast
monthly forecast 0.4
0.4 0.25
0.25
6
6
annual average
annual average 0.2
0.2
4
4
0.0
0.0
FederalGulf
Federal Gulf ofofMexico
Mexico (GOM)
(GOM)
-0.05
-0.05 Lower48
Lower 48excluding
excludingGOMGOM
2
2 -0.2
-0.2
Alaska
Alaska
net change
net change
0
0 -0.4
-0.4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
4
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
surplus crude oil production capacity
million barrels per day
6
forecast
5
2013-2022 average
4

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023
Note: Black line represents 2013-2022 average (2.7 million barrels per day).

Worldliquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
105
105 6
6
5.6
5.6 forecast
forecast

5
5 world
world change
change
100
100
Organizationfor
Organization for
Economic
Economic
4
4 Cooperationand
and
Cooperation
95
95 Development(OECD)
Development (OECD
monthly history
monthly history 3
3 non-OECD
non-OECD
monthly forecast
monthly forecast
90
90 annual average
annual average 2.0
2.0 1.9
1.9
2
2
1.4
1.4
85
85
1
1
//
80
80
0 0
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

Annual change in world liquid fuels consumption


million barrels per day
6 5.6 forecast
5
world
4 other non-OECD
Middle East
3 India
2.0 1.9 China
2 other OECD
1.4
United States
1

-1
2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
commercial inventories of crude oil and other liquids
days of supply
100

90

80

70

60
forecast
50
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022
//
40

30
0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

Estimated unplanned liquid fuels production outages among OPEC and non-
OPEC producers
million barrels per day
4.5
4.0 non-OPEC
other
3.5 United States
Canada
3.0
Russia
2.5
OPEC
2.0 Venezuela
1.5 Saudi Arabia
Iran
1.0 Kuwait
0.5 Iraq
Nigeria
0.0
Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. gasoline
U.S. gasolineand
andcrude
crudeoiloil prices
prices Componentsofofannual
Components annual gasoline
gasoline
price changes
price changes
dollars per
dollars pergallon
gallon dollars per
dollars pergallon
gallon
7.00
7.00
monthly retail regular
monthly regulargasoline
gasoline 1.25
6.50
6.50 annual average
annual average gasoline
gasoline 0.95
0.95 forecast
forecast
6.00
6.00 monthly Brent crude
monthly crudeoil
oil
1.00 0.84
0.84
5.50
5.50 annual average
annual average Brent
Brent forecast
forecast 0.75
5.00
5.00
4.50
4.50 0.50
4.00
4.00 0.25
3.50
3.50 0.05
0.05
3.00
3.00 0.00
2.50
2.50 Brent
Brent crude
crudeoil
oilprice
-0.25 price
-0.25
2.00
2.00 wholesale margin
1.50
1.50 -0.50 wholesale
-0.50 over crudemargin
-0.41
-0.41
1.00
1.00 over margin
retail crude
0.50
0.50 -0.75 retail
-0.75 margin
over wholesale
over
net wholesale
change
0.00
0.00 -1.00 net change
-1.00
2020 2021
2020 2021 20222022 2023 2024 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023,
2023,
and and Refinitiv
Refinitiv an LSEGanBusiness
LSEG Business
U.S. diesel
U.S. dieseland
andcrude
crudeoiloil prices
prices Componentsofofannual
Components annual diesel
diesel
price changes
price changes
dollarsper
dollars pergallon
gallon dollars per gallon
dollars per gallon
8.00
8.00 monthly retail
monthly retail diesel
diesel 2.25
2.25
7.50
7.50 forecast
forecast
annual average
annual averagediesel
diesel 2.00
2.00 1.73
1.73
7.00
7.00 monthly Brent
monthly Brent crude
crudeoil
oil 1.75
1.75
6.50
6.50 Brent annual
Brent annual average
average 1.50
1.50 Brent crude
Brent crudeoil
oilprice
price
6.00
6.00 forecast
forecast 1.25
1.25 wholesalemargin
wholesale margin
5.50
5.50 1.00
1.00 over crude
over crude
5.00
5.00 0.73
0.73 retail margin
margin
0.75
0.75 retail
4.50
4.50 0.50
0.50 over wholesale
over wholesale
4.00
4.00 net change
net change
0.25
0.25
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00 0.00
0.00
2.50
2.50 -0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50 -0.01
-0.01
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50 -0.75
-0.75
1.00
1.00 -1.00
-1.00 -0.75
-0.75
0.50
0.50 -1.25
-1.25
0.00
0.00 -1.50
-1.50
2020 2021
2020 2021 20222022 2023 2023 20242024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023,
2023,
and and Refinitiv
Refinitiv an LSEGanBusiness
LSEG Business

U.S. crude
U.S. crudeoil
oiland
andliquid
liquid fuels
fuels production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
25
25 3.00
3.00
biofuels
biofuels
natural gas
2.50 natural
2.50 gas
20
20 plant liquids
plant liquids
crude oil
2.00 crude oil
2.00 other
other
net change
net change 1.49
1.49
15
15 1.50
1.50 1.31
1.31
total monthly
total monthly production
production
forecast
forecast 1.00
1.00
10
10 annual average
annual average
0.37
0.37 0.43
0.50
0.50
5
5
0.00
0.00
forecast
forecast
0
0 -0.50
-0.50
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. natural
U.S. naturalgas
gasplant
plant liquids
liquids production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
7
7 0.80
0.80 net change
net change
naturalgasoline
natural gasoline
butanes
butanes
6
6 0.60
0.60 propane
propane
0.51
0.51 ethane
ethane
0.43
0.43
5
5 0.40
0.40
0.25
0.25

4
4 monthly production
monthly production 0.20
0.20 0.16
0.16

monthly forecast
monthly forecast

3
3 annual average
annual average 0.00
0.00
forecast
forecast
//
0
2
2 -0.20
-0.20
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
U.S. liquid
U.S. liquidfuels
fuelsproduct
product supplied
supplied Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
(consumption)
(consumption)
million barrels per day
million barrels per day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
25
25 2.00
2.00
1.70
1.70 forecast
forecast
1.75
1.75
20
20 1.50
1.50 motor gasoline
motor gasoline
distillate fuel
distillate fuel
1.25
1.25 jet fuel
fuel
15
15 1.00
1.00 hydrocarbon
hydrocarbon gas gas
monthly history
monthly history
liquids
liquids
monthly forecast
monthly forecast 0.75
0.75 other fuels
other fuels
10
10 annual average
annual average 0.50
0.50
0.12
0.12 0.14
0.14 0.21
0.25
0.25
5 0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
0 -0.50
-0.50
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
24
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. hydrocarbon
U.S. hydrocarbongas gas liquids
liquids Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
productsupplied
product supplied(consumption)
(consumption)
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
5
5 0.40
0.40
net change
net change
naturalgasoline
natural gasoline
4
4 0.30
0.30 ethane
ethane
0.21
0.21 propane
propane
0.20
0.20 butanes
butanes
3
3 0.15
0.15

0.10
0.10 0.06
0.06

2
2 monthly history
monthly history
monthly forecast
monthly forecast 0.00
0.00
-0.08
-0.08
1
1 annual average
annual average
-0.10
-0.10
forecast
forecast
0
0 -0.20
-0.20
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
3

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories


million barrels
600
forecast
575
monthly range from Jan 2018 −Dec 2022
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
//
275
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories
million barrels
280
total motor gasoline inventory forecast
260
240
220
200
monthly range from Jan 2018−Dec 2022
180
160
140
120
total distillate fuel inventory
100
80
60
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. commercial propane inventories


million barrels
125
forecast

100

75

50

25
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022
0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023
Note: Excludes propylene.

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels


million barrels per day
8
forecast
6
crude oil
4 net imports
2
total
0 net imports
-2
petroleum
-4 product and
other liquids
-6 net imports
Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023
Note: Petroleum product and other liquids include: gasoline, distillate fuels, hydrocarbon gas liquids,
jet fuel, residual fuel oil, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons/oxygenates, and other oils.
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)
million barrels per day
0.5
forecast
0.0 net imports
net exports
-0.5
net trade
-1.0
propane
ethane
-1.5 natural gasoline
butanes
-2.0

-2.5

-3.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX confidence intervals


dollars per million British thermal units
12
95% NYMEX
10 futures price
confidence interval
8 upper bound

6 STEO forecast
Henry Hub spot price
NYMEX
4 futures price

2 95% NYMEX
futures price
confidence interval
0 lower bound
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023,
CME Group, and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days
ending November 2, 2023. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-
the-money options contracts.

U.S. natural gas prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
30
monthly residential price forecast
annual average residential
25 monthly Henry Hub spot price
Henry Hub annual average

20

15

10

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023,
and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
U.S.
U.S. natural
naturalgas
gasproduction, consumption,
production, andand
consumption, net net
imports
imports
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
125
125
consumption
consumption forecast
forecast
100
100
75
75
50
50 production
production
25
25
net trade
net trade(imports
(importsminus
minus exports)
exports)
0
0
-25
-25
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Q1
2018 2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
30
30
20
20 net storage
net storagebuilds
builds
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20 net storage
net storagewithdrawals
withdrawals
-30
-30
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. marketed
U.S. marketednatural
natural gas
gas production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
115
115
7
7 U.S. non-Gulf
U.S. non-GulfofofMexico
Mexico forecast
forecast
U.S. Gulf
U.S. Gulfof
ofMexico
Mexico
110
110 net change
net change 5.7
6
6 5.7
105
105 5.0
5
5
100
100
4
4
95
95 3
3 2.5
2.5
90
90 1.7
1.7
2
2
monthly history
monthly history
85
85 monthly forecast
monthly forecast 1
1
annual average
annual average
80
80 0
0
//
0
75
75 -1
-1
2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. natural
U.S. naturalgas
gasconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
120
120 5
5 4.4
4.4
110
110 forecast
forecast
4
4
100
100
3
3
90
90
2
2 1.0
1.0
80
80
1
1 0.4
0.4
70
70
60
60 0
0
50
50 -1
-1
monthly history
monthly history -0.4
-0.4
40
40 net change
net change
monthly forecast
monthly forecast -2
-2 industrial
industrial
30
30 annual average
annual average electricpower
electric power
-3
-3
residentialand
and
20
20 residential
-4
-4 commercial
commercial
10
10 other
other
00 -5
-5
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
24

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
U.S. working
U.S. workingnatural
naturalgas
gasinin
storage
storage
billion cubicfeet
billion cubic feet forecast
forecast
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500 storagelevel
level
storage
1,000
1,000
500
500 monthlyrange
monthly rangefrom
from Jan
Jan 2018
2018 − Dec
− Dec 2022
2022
0
0
Jan
Jan 2018
2018 Jan
Jan 2019
2019 Jan
Jan 2020
2020 Jan
Jan 2021
2021 Jan
Jan 2022
2022 Jan
Jan 2023
2023 Jan
Jan 2024
2024
Percentagedeviation
Percentage deviation from
from 2018
2018 − 2022
− 2022 average
average
50%
50%
forecast
forecast
25%
25%

0%
0%

-25%
-25%
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. annual natural gas trade


billion cubic feet per day
10
forecast
gross imports
5 as liquefied
natural gas
0 by pipeline

-5 net trade

-10 gross exports


by pipeline
as liquefied
-15
-7.5 natural gas
-20 -10.5 -10.6
-12.9 -14.0
-25
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. monthly
U.S. monthlynominal
nominal residential
residential Annualgrowth
Annual growthininnominal
nominal
electricityprice
electricity price residentialelectricity
residential electricity prices
prices
cents per kilowatthour
cents per kilowatthour percent
percent
17
17 11%
11%
10.1%
10.1%
16
16 10%
10% forecast
forecast
15
15 9%
9%
14
14
13
13 8%
8%
12
12 7%
7%
11
11 6%
6%
10
10 4.7%
99 5%
5%
3.8%
88 4%
4%
77 2.7%
3%
3%
66 history
history
55 2%
2% 1.1% 1.1%
44 forecast
forecast 1%
1%
33 0%
0%
22 -0.1%
11 -1%
-1% -0.1% -0.4%
-0.4%
00 -2%
-2%
2017
2017 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
U.S. electric
U.S. electricpower
powersector
sector generating
generating capacity U.S. electricity
capacity U.S. electricitygeneration
generationbyby source
source
gigawattsatatend
gigawatts endofofperiod
period forecast
forecast trillion kilowatthours
trillion kilowatthours forecast
forecast
500
500 4.5
4.5
natural
natural
450
450 gas
gas 4.0
4.0
400
400 3.5
3.5
39% 41%
350
350 42%
3.0
3.0
300
300
2.5
2.5
250
250
15%
coal 2.0
2.0 20% 16%
200
200 coal
wind
wind 1.5
1.5 11%
150
150 solar 11% 11%
solar 6%
Hydro- 4% 4%
100
100 Hydro- 1.0
1.0 7%
power 6% 6%
power
nuclear
50
50 nuclear 0.5
0.5 19% 19% 19%
other
0
0 other
sources
sources 0.0
0.0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2018 2020 2022 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. electricity
U.S. electricityconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion kilowatthours
billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
billion kilowatthours
425
425 150
150 125
125 forecast
forecast
400
400 94
100
100 88
88
375
375
350
350 50
50
325
325
0
0
300
300
residentialsales
residential sales
275
275 -50
-50 industrialsales
industrial sales
commercial
commercial andand -48
250
250 monthly history
monthly history transportationsales
sales
transportation
-100
-100 direct use
direct use
225
225
//// monthly forecast
monthly forecast net change
net change
00
200
200 -150
-150
2020 2021
2020 2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. coal
U.S. coalproduction
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionshort
million shorttons
tons millionshort
million shorttons
tons
70
70 60
60
42
42 forecast
forecast
40
40
60
60
17
20
20
50
50
0
0
40
40 -20
-20 -9

30
30 -40
-40
monthly history
monthly history
-60
-60 Westernregion
Western region
20
20 monthly forecast
monthly forecast
Appalachianregion
Appalachian region
-80
-80
annual average
annual average Interiorregion
Interior region
10
10 -100
-100 net change
net change
-105
-105
0
0 -120
-120
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
U.S. coal
U.S. coalconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionshort
million shorttons
tons millionshort
million shorttons
tons
70
70 100
100
69
69 forecast
forecast
75
75 coke plants
coke plants
60
60
electricpower
power
electric
50
50 retail and
retail and
50
50 other industry
other industry
25
25 net change
net change
40
40 0

30
30 -25
-25
-30 -30
-50
-50
20
20 monthly history
monthly history
monthly forecast
monthly forecast -75
-75
10
10 annual average
annual average -100
-100
-91
00 -125
-125
2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023

U.S. electric power coal inventories


million short tons
200
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022 forecast
175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. renewable
U.S. renewableenergy
energy supply
supply Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
quadrillionBritish
quadrillion Britishthermal
thermal units
units quadrillionBritish
quadrillion Britishthermal
thermal units
units
10
10 0.70
0.70 0.65
0.65
forecast
forecast
9 0.60
0.60
8 0.50
0.50 net change
net change
0.40
0.40
7 solar
solar
0.40
0.40 0.34
0.34 wind
wind
6 hydropower
0.30
0.30 hydropower
5 0.23
0.23 liquidbiofuels
liquid biofuels
0.20
0.20 geothermal
geothermal
4 woodbiomass
biomass
0.10
0.10 wood
3 wastebiomass
waste biomass

2 0.00
0.00

1 -0.10
-0.10
forecast
forecast
0 -0.20
-0.20
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
Note:Hydropower
Note: Hydropowerexcludes
excludes pumped
pumped storage
storage generation.
generation. Liquids
Liquids include
include ethanol,
ethanol, biodiesel,
biodiesel, renewable
renewable
diesel, otherdiesel, other
biofuels, and biofuels, and biofuel
biofuel losses losses and coproducts.Waste
and coproducts.Waste biomass includesbiomass
municipalincludes
waste from
municipal
biogenic waste from
sources, landfillbiogenic
gas, andsources,
non-wood landfill
waste.gas, and non-wood waste.
U.S. annual energy expenditures
share of gross domestic product
10%
9%
8%
forecast
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2023

U.S. winter
U.S. winterheating
heatingdegree
degree days
days
population-weighted
population-weighted
1,000
1,000 4,000
4,000
2020−21
2020−21
cooler
cooler
2021−22
2021−22
2022−23
2022−23 warmer
warmer 3,000
3,000
750
750
2023−24
2023−24
previous 10-winter
previous 10-winter average
average

500
500 2,000
2,000

250
250 1,000
1,000

0 00
October
October November
November December
December January
January February
February March
March total winter
total winter

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023
Note: EIA
Note: EIAcalculations
calculations based
based onon National
National Oceanic
Oceanic and and Atmospheric
Atmospheric Administration
Administration (NOAA)
(NOAA) data.
data. Projections
Projections reflect NOAA's
reflect NOAA's 14-16
14-16 month month outlook.
outlook.
U.S. summer
U.S. summercooling
cooling degree
degree days
days
population-weighted
population-weighted
400
400 1,600
1,600
2021
2021 warmer
warmer
350
350 2022
2022 1,400
1,400
cooler
cooler
300
300 2023
2023
1,200
1,200
2024
2024
250
250 1,000
1,000
2014−2023 average
2014−2023 average
200
200 800
800
150
150 600
600
100
100 400
400
50
50 200
200
0
0 0
April May June July August
August September
September totaltotal
summer
summer
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
Note:EIA
Note: EIAcalculations
calculations based
based onon National
National Oceanic
Oceanic and and Atmospheric
Atmospheric Administration
Administration (NOAA)
(NOAA) data.
data. Projections
Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.

U.S. annual
U.S. annualCO2
CO2emissions
emissions
byby source
source Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionmetric
million metrictons
tons million metric
million metrictons
tons
6,000
6,000 400
400
forecast
forecast 321
321 forecast
forecast
5,500
5,500 total energy
total energy
300
300
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500 naturalgas
natural gas
200
200 petroleum
petroleum
4,000
4,000 coal
coal
3,500
3,500 100
100 net change
net change
34
34
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500 petroleum
petroleum 0
0
2,000
2,000 natural gas -35
-35
natural gas -100
-100
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000 -200
-200
coal -152
-152
500
500 coal
0 -300
-300
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, November
November 2023 2023
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Energy Production

Crude Oil Production (a)


(million barrels per day) ............................. 11.52 11.77 12.05 12.30 12.63 12.75 13.07 13.17 13.06 13.08 13.11 13.35 11.91 12.90 13.15

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) .......................... 96.6 98.9 101.2 101.6 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.1 105.1 104.8 104.7 105.9 99.6 103.7 105.1

Coal Production
(million short tons) ..................................... 149 145 154 146 149 142 152 143 129 113 123 116 594 585 480

Energy Consumption

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ............................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.24 20.29 20.10 20.38 20.53 20.39 20.01 20.15 20.35

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) .......................... 104.5 75.9 80.9 92.4 102.9 78.0 83.9 93.1 104.0 77.2 82.6 92.2 88.4 89.4 89.0

Coal (b)
(million short tons) ..................................... 134 119 146 116 102 91 132 99 98 82 125 89 516 424 394

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ................... 10.94 10.73 12.57 10.35 10.60 10.32 12.63 10.51 10.88 10.62 12.88 10.59 11.15 11.02 11.24

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) .......................................... 2.00 2.11 1.95 1.96 2.03 2.09 2.03 2.10 2.20 2.29 2.22 2.20 8.03 8.26 8.91

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) .......................................... 24.95 22.36 23.82 24.06 24.04 21.94 23.65 23.79 24.68 22.01 23.69 23.59 95.19 93.41 93.96

Energy Prices

Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate Spot


(dollars per barrel) ...................................... 95.18 108.93 93.07 82.69 75.96 73.49 82.25 85.93 89.64 90.34 89.00 88.00 94.91 79.41 89.24

Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot


(dollars per million Btu) .............................. 4.66 7.48 7.99 5.55 2.65 2.16 2.59 3.26 3.42 2.94 3.24 3.42 6.42 2.67 3.25

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) .............................. 2.18 2.25 2.49 2.54 2.57 2.49 2.49 2.44 2.44 2.42 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.50 2.41

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ........ 21,739 21,708 21,851 21,990 22,112 22,225 22,493 22,586 22,597 22,640 22,699 22,779 21,822 22,354 22,679
Percent change from prior year ................. 3.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.5

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2017=100) ...................................... 115.2 117.7 119.0 120.1 121.3 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 118.0 122.2 125.4
Percent change from prior year ................. 6.9 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.3 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 7.1 3.5 2.6

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ........ 16,067 16,010 16,152 16,239 16,663 16,808 16,780 16,859 17,009 17,137 17,260 17,366 16,117 16,777 17,193
Percent change from prior year ................. -12.6 -5.6 -3.5 -1.5 3.7 5.0 3.9 3.8 2.1 2.0 2.9 3.0 -6.0 4.1 2.5

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2017=100) ...................................... 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.0 99.9 100.1 100.1 99.4 98.8 98.5 98.6 99.1 100.5 99.9 98.7
Percent change from prior year ................. 4.5 3.6 2.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -0.4 2.9 -0.6 -1.2

Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days ........................ 2,146 490 54 1,552 1,921 486 61 1,445 2,004 472 75 1,454 4,243 3,913 4,005
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ........................ 47 467 953 90 68 362 943 101 50 444 968 105 1,557 1,476 1,568
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy
Review (MER). Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly , DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System. U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the S&P Global model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather forecasts from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Energy Information Administration.
Table 2. Energy Prices
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ............................... 95.18 108.93 93.07 82.69 75.96 73.49 82.25 85.93 89.64 90.34 89.00 88.00 94.91 79.41 89.24
Brent Spot Average .............................................................. 101.17 113.84 100.53 88.44 81.04 78.02 86.64 90.27 93.64 94.34 93.00 92.00 100.94 83.99 93.24
U.S. Imported Average ......................................................... 90.06 108.10 92.18 78.14 69.58 71.08 79.80 83.20 86.90 87.57 86.25 85.25 92.83 75.99 86.56
U.S. Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ................................. 92.68 110.12 95.19 83.11 74.44 73.99 81.94 85.44 89.16 89.82 88.50 87.50 95.33 79.04 88.75
U.S. Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ............................................................................ 278 376 311 267 262 265 296 244 254 289 292 261 309 267 274
Diesel Fuel ........................................................................ 301 418 357 364 295 245 309 302 308 294 292 303 360 288 299
Fuel Oil .............................................................................. 284 419 344 359 278 233 284 294 298 280 276 292 352 267 292
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel ............................................................................. 283 400 340 332 305 233 291 294 304 292 287 298 340 281 295
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ................................................. 251 259 228 201 196 189 202 218 227 228 226 224 234 202 226
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ............................................... 371 450 408 357 338 358 376 349 342 373 378 348 397 355 361
Gasoline All Grades (b) ..................................................... 380 460 419 369 349 369 387 362 354 385 390 361 408 367 373
On-highway Diesel Fuel ..................................................... 431 549 516 508 439 394 428 446 438 423 414 427 501 427 425
Heating Oil ........................................................................ 415 553 497 493 406 353 384 417 414 390 375 414 466 399 407
Propane
Mont Belvieu Spot ............................................................. 130 125 108 80 82 68 68 72 78 81 80 80 111 73 80
Natural Gas
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ................. 4.84 7.77 8.30 5.76 2.76 2.25 2.69 3.38 3.56 3.05 3.36 3.56 6.67 2.77 3.38
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per million Btu) .............................. 4.66 7.48 7.99 5.55 2.65 2.16 2.59 3.26 3.42 2.94 3.24 3.42 6.42 2.67 3.25
U.S. Retail Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Industrial Sector ................................................................ 6.64 7.97 8.93 7.33 6.06 3.76 3.89 4.72 5.34 4.25 4.27 4.88 7.66 4.67 4.72
Commercial Sector ............................................................ 9.99 11.65 14.05 12.11 11.81 10.48 10.90 9.16 9.05 9.51 10.11 8.84 11.32 10.67 9.18
Residential Sector ............................................................. 12.30 16.51 24.78 15.56 14.72 16.19 22.10 12.92 11.76 14.45 20.20 12.38 14.77 14.88 12.97
U.S. Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal .................................................................................. 2.18 2.25 2.49 2.54 2.57 2.49 2.49 2.44 2.44 2.42 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.50 2.41
Natural Gas ...................................................................... 5.93 7.39 8.23 6.86 4.98 2.60 2.89 3.54 3.95 3.07 3.29 3.71 7.23 3.42 3.48
Residual Fuel Oil (c) .......................................................... 16.59 25.86 26.65 21.22 19.23 17.88 17.66 17.29 17.41 18.20 17.26 17.19 21.58 18.06 17.46
Distillate Fuel Oil ................................................................ 21.32 30.71 26.71 24.73 22.84 19.91 22.52 23.13 23.51 22.57 22.17 23.12 25.00 22.24 22.97
Prices to Ultimate Customers (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ................................................................ 7.28 8.28 9.25 8.36 8.06 7.74 8.54 8.04 8.19 7.81 8.51 8.14 8.32 8.10 8.17
Commercial Sector ............................................................ 11.52 12.21 13.24 12.50 12.64 12.45 13.11 11.91 12.02 12.22 13.33 12.24 12.41 12.55 12.50
Residential Sector ............................................................. 13.91 14.96 15.74 15.44 15.77 16.12 15.91 15.18 15.36 15.98 16.01 15.31 15.04 15.75 15.69
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation; prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices, the Mt. Belvieu propane spot price, and the Henry Hub natural gas spot price are from
Refinitiv,an LSEG company, via EIA (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Production (million barrels per day) (a)
OECD ................................................ 31.75 32.00 32.59 33.03 33.48 33.76 34.49 35.03 34.88 34.51 34.69 35.34 32.35 34.19 34.86
U.S. (50 States) .............................. 19.57 20.24 20.65 20.72 21.05 21.69 22.15 22.24 22.04 22.15 22.24 22.45 20.30 21.79 22.22
Canada ........................................... 5.66 5.51 5.72 5.91 5.79 5.44 5.80 6.00 5.99 5.65 5.84 6.05 5.70 5.76 5.88
Mexico ............................................ 1.91 1.89 1.90 1.90 2.07 2.16 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.08 2.06 2.03 1.90 2.11 2.07
Other OECD ................................... 4.61 4.35 4.32 4.49 4.56 4.47 4.43 4.69 4.73 4.64 4.55 4.80 4.44 4.54 4.68
Non-OECD ........................................ 67.21 66.86 68.30 68.17 67.63 67.70 67.06 67.01 66.97 67.74 68.29 67.78 67.64 67.35 67.70
OPEC .............................................. 33.75 33.76 34.71 34.43 33.95 33.69 32.85 32.97 33.15 33.21 33.39 33.19 34.17 33.36 33.24
Crude Oil Portion ......................... 28.19 28.33 29.23 28.92 28.46 28.38 27.50 27.58 27.67 27.85 28.01 27.77 28.67 27.98 27.83
Other Liquids (b) .......................... 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.31 5.35 5.39 5.49 5.35 5.38 5.42 5.50 5.38 5.41
Eurasia ............................................ 14.39 13.39 13.59 14.01 14.11 13.67 13.45 13.63 13.67 13.73 13.76 13.84 13.84 13.71 13.75
China ............................................... 5.18 5.18 5.05 5.09 5.32 5.32 5.19 5.32 5.27 5.30 5.29 5.33 5.12 5.29 5.30
Other Non-OECD ........................... 13.90 14.53 14.94 14.65 14.26 15.02 15.58 15.10 14.88 15.51 15.85 15.42 14.51 14.99 15.41
Total World Production ...................... 98.96 98.86 100.88 101.20 101.11 101.45 101.55 102.05 101.85 102.25 102.98 103.12 99.99 101.54 102.55

Non-OPEC Production ...................... 65.22 65.10 66.18 66.76 67.16 67.77 68.70 69.08 68.70 69.04 69.59 69.93 65.82 68.18 69.32

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................ 45.63 45.11 46.22 45.63 45.20 45.33 46.20 46.45 45.74 45.35 46.13 46.20 45.65 45.80 45.86
U.S. (50 States) .............................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.24 20.29 20.10 20.38 20.53 20.39 20.01 20.15 20.35
U.S. Territories ............................... 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Canada ........................................... 2.24 2.21 2.38 2.30 2.24 2.23 2.32 2.30 2.26 2.21 2.31 2.29 2.28 2.27 2.27
Europe ............................................ 13.19 13.43 14.04 13.35 13.06 13.32 13.98 13.74 13.17 13.32 13.73 13.49 13.50 13.53 13.43
Japan .............................................. 3.70 3.03 3.19 3.56 3.72 3.03 3.15 3.48 3.62 3.00 3.10 3.43 3.37 3.34 3.29
Other OECD ................................... 6.30 6.33 6.37 6.45 6.39 6.26 6.38 6.52 6.46 6.31 6.34 6.47 6.36 6.39 6.40
Non-OECD ........................................ 52.83 53.49 53.86 53.85 54.70 55.43 55.44 55.39 56.24 56.74 56.68 56.65 53.51 55.24 56.58
Eurasia ............................................ 4.28 4.43 4.73 4.65 4.32 4.47 4.78 4.69 4.39 4.54 4.86 4.76 4.53 4.57 4.64
Europe ............................................ 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.77
China ............................................... 15.12 15.10 15.09 15.28 15.89 16.08 15.77 15.98 16.27 16.47 16.14 16.36 15.15 15.93 16.31
Other Asia ....................................... 13.74 13.75 13.41 13.84 14.30 14.37 13.79 14.09 14.90 14.88 14.27 14.58 13.69 14.14 14.66
Other Non-OECD ........................... 18.95 19.45 19.86 19.32 19.45 19.74 20.34 19.86 19.93 20.10 20.65 20.17 19.39 19.85 20.21
Total World Consumption .................. 98.46 98.60 100.08 99.48 99.90 100.76 101.64 101.85 101.98 102.09 102.82 102.85 99.16 101.04 102.44

Total Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)
U.S. (50 States) ................................. 0.80 0.51 0.45 0.41 -0.08 -0.11 -0.14 0.47 -0.06 -0.31 0.01 0.37 0.54 0.04 0.00
Other OECD ...................................... -0.09 -0.29 -0.48 -0.26 0.32 -0.53 0.07 -0.22 0.06 0.05 -0.05 -0.20 -0.28 -0.09 -0.04
Other Stock Draws and Balance ....... -1.21 -0.49 -0.79 -1.85 -1.45 -0.06 0.16 -0.45 0.13 0.10 -0.12 -0.44 -1.09 -0.45 -0.08
Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.51 -0.26 -0.81 -1.71 -1.21 -0.70 0.09 -0.20 0.13 -0.16 -0.16 -0.27 -0.83 -0.50 -0.12

End-of-period Commercial Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventories (million barrels)
U.S. Commercial Inventory ............... 1,154 1,180 1,216 1,223 1,231 1,264 1,273 1,230 1,235 1,264 1,262 1,229 1,223 1,230 1,229
OECD Commercial Inventory ............ 2,604 2,657 2,736 2,767 2,746 2,828 2,830 2,807 2,807 2,831 2,834 2,819 2,767 2,807 2,819
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia,
Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkiye, United Kingdom, and United States.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Production (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024

North America ....................................................... 27.14 27.65 28.27 28.54 28.91 29.29 30.06 30.34 30.14 29.88 30.14 30.54 27.90 29.66 30.18
Canada .................................................................... 5.66 5.51 5.72 5.91 5.79 5.44 5.80 6.00 5.99 5.65 5.84 6.05 5.70 5.76 5.88
Mexico ..................................................................... 1.91 1.89 1.90 1.90 2.07 2.16 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.08 2.06 2.03 1.90 2.11 2.07
United States ........................................................... 19.57 20.24 20.65 20.72 21.05 21.69 22.15 22.24 22.04 22.15 22.24 22.45 20.30 21.79 22.22

Central and South America ................................. 5.83 6.41 6.87 6.58 6.31 7.00 7.54 7.06 6.87 7.50 7.84 7.40 6.43 6.98 7.40
Argentina ................................................................. 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.87 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.92 0.79 0.83 0.88
Brazil ....................................................................... 3.33 3.79 4.15 3.78 3.55 4.19 4.69 4.14 3.84 4.42 4.74 4.29 3.76 4.15 4.32
Colombia .................................................................. 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.79
Ecuador ................................................................... 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.48 0.50
Guyana .................................................................... 0.12 0.24 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.44 0.56 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.26 0.39 0.60

Europe ................................................................... 4.04 3.76 3.81 3.93 4.01 3.92 3.89 4.14 4.17 4.08 4.00 4.26 3.89 3.99 4.13
Norway .................................................................... 1.97 1.74 1.91 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.96 2.09 2.11 2.04 2.05 2.22 1.90 2.03 2.10
United Kingdom ....................................................... 0.97 0.91 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.79 0.81 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.82 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.89

Eurasia ................................................................... 14.39 13.39 13.59 14.01 14.11 13.67 13.45 13.63 13.67 13.73 13.76 13.84 13.84 13.71 13.75
Azerbaijan ................................................................ 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.67 0.62 0.62
Kazakhstan .............................................................. 2.01 1.77 1.62 1.92 2.02 1.97 1.85 1.99 1.93 1.99 2.02 2.08 1.83 1.96 2.01
Russia ..................................................................... 11.30 10.59 10.95 11.06 11.06 10.68 10.58 10.62 10.72 10.72 10.72 10.73 10.97 10.73 10.72
Turkmenistan ........................................................... 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27

Middle East ............................................................ 3.23 3.29 3.34 3.28 3.22 3.22 3.19 3.17 3.20 3.21 3.20 3.20 3.28 3.20 3.20
Oman ....................................................................... 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.03
Qatar ....................................................................... 1.85 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86

Asia and Oceania ................................................. 9.17 9.16 8.87 9.00 9.21 9.26 9.13 9.28 9.24 9.25 9.23 9.26 9.05 9.22 9.25
Australia ................................................................... 0.44 0.47 0.39 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.43 0.42 0.40
China ....................................................................... 5.18 5.18 5.05 5.09 5.32 5.32 5.19 5.32 5.27 5.30 5.29 5.33 5.12 5.29 5.30
India ......................................................................... 0.88 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.90 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.89 0.91
Indonesia ................................................................. 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.83 0.82 0.85 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.81
Malaysia .................................................................. 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.62 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.60 0.59 0.58

Africa ..................................................................... 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.44 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.42 1.41
Egypt ....................................................................... 0.66 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.67 0.66 0.61
South Sudan ............................................................ 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15

Total non-OPEC liquids ......................................... 65.22 65.10 66.18 66.76 67.16 67.77 68.70 69.08 68.70 69.04 69.59 69.93 65.82 68.18 69.32

OPEC non-crude liquids ...................................... 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.31 5.35 5.39 5.49 5.35 5.38 5.42 5.50 5.38 5.41
Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude ............................ 70.77 70.54 71.66 72.28 72.65 73.08 74.05 74.46 74.18 74.40 74.97 75.35 71.32 73.57 74.73

Unplanned non-OPEC Production Outages ......... 0.76 1.31 0.78 0.56 0.56 1.02 0.92 - - - - - 0.85 - -
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region, and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Production (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Crude Oil
Algeria ............................................................... 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.98 0.95 - - - - - 1.00 - -
Angola ............................................................... 1.15 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.08 1.14 1.14 - - - - - 1.15 - -
Congo (Brazzaville) .......................................... 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.26 - - - - - 0.27 - -
Equatorial Guinea ............................................. 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 - - - - - 0.09 - -
Gabon ............................................................... 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.20 - - - - - 0.20 - -
Iran .................................................................... 2.55 2.53 2.53 2.56 2.60 2.74 2.97 - - - - - 2.54 - -
Iraq .................................................................... 4.30 4.42 4.55 4.51 4.41 4.19 4.32 - - - - - 4.45 - -
Kuwait ............................................................... 2.61 2.69 2.80 2.72 2.68 2.59 2.56 - - - - - 2.71 - -
Libya ................................................................. 1.06 0.76 0.95 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.15 - - - - - 0.98 - -
Nigeria .............................................................. 1.27 1.11 0.97 1.07 1.24 1.19 1.21 - - - - - 1.10 - -
Saudi Arabia ..................................................... 10.08 10.30 10.85 10.50 10.02 10.18 9.02 - - - - - 10.43 - -
United Arab Emirates ....................................... 2.94 3.04 3.17 3.09 3.06 2.94 2.91 - - - - - 3.06 - -
Venezuela ......................................................... 0.70 0.72 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.75 0.76 - - - - - 0.69 - -
OPEC Total .................................................... 28.19 28.33 29.23 28.92 28.46 28.38 27.50 27.58 27.67 27.85 28.01 27.77 28.67 27.98 27.83

Other Liquids (a) ................................................ 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.31 5.35 5.39 5.49 5.35 5.38 5.42 5.50 5.38 5.41

Total OPEC Production .................................... 33.75 33.76 34.71 34.43 33.95 33.69 32.85 32.97 33.15 33.21 33.39 33.19 34.17 33.36 33.24

OPEC+ Crude Oil Production ........................... 39.43 38.99 40.06 39.78 39.29 38.60 37.36 37.60 37.69 37.86 38.00 37.75 39.57 38.20 37.83

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Middle East ....................................................... 25.48 25.46 25.55 25.66 25.88 25.67 25.90 25.96 26.29 26.31 26.39 26.70 25.54 25.85 26.42
Other ................................................................. 5.83 5.45 5.35 5.55 5.71 5.78 5.81 5.82 5.73 5.72 5.71 5.70 5.54 5.78 5.72
OPEC Total .................................................... 31.31 30.91 30.89 31.21 31.59 31.45 31.70 31.78 32.02 32.03 32.10 32.40 31.08 31.63 32.14

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Middle East ....................................................... 3.00 2.47 1.65 2.28 3.10 3.02 4.12 4.13 4.30 4.11 4.03 4.57 2.35 3.60 4.25
Other ................................................................. 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
OPEC Total .................................................... 3.12 2.58 1.67 2.29 3.13 3.07 4.20 4.20 4.36 4.17 4.09 4.63 2.41 3.65 4.31

Unplanned OPEC Production Outages .......... 1.98 2.42 2.50 2.14 1.94 2.13 1.95 - - - - - 2.26 - -
(a) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Middle East); Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela (Other).
OPEC+ = OPEC (excluding Iran, Libya, and Venezuela) plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Forecasts are not published for individual OPEC countries.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024

North America ........................................................ 24.10 24.20 24.46 24.11 23.78 24.50 24.50 24.54 24.25 24.50 24.74 24.60 24.22 24.33 24.52
Canada .................................................................... 2.24 2.21 2.38 2.30 2.24 2.23 2.32 2.30 2.26 2.21 2.31 2.29 2.28 2.27 2.27
Mexico ..................................................................... 1.76 1.99 1.96 1.95 1.87 1.88 1.93 1.94 1.87 1.90 1.89 1.91 1.92 1.91 1.89
United States ........................................................... 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.24 20.29 20.10 20.38 20.53 20.39 20.01 20.15 20.35

Central and South America ................................. 6.27 6.43 6.57 6.54 6.42 6.57 6.66 6.59 6.46 6.61 6.71 6.64 6.45 6.56 6.61
Brazil ....................................................................... 2.85 2.93 3.02 3.02 2.98 3.04 3.11 3.10 2.97 3.03 3.11 3.09 2.96 3.06 3.05

Europe ................................................................... 13.93 14.19 14.80 14.11 13.81 14.08 14.74 14.51 13.92 14.09 14.50 14.27 14.26 14.29 14.20

Eurasia ................................................................... 4.28 4.43 4.73 4.65 4.32 4.47 4.78 4.69 4.39 4.54 4.86 4.76 4.53 4.57 4.64
Russia ..................................................................... 3.27 3.36 3.64 3.50 3.31 3.39 3.68 3.54 3.33 3.42 3.71 3.57 3.44 3.48 3.51

Middle East ............................................................ 8.92 9.28 9.67 9.02 9.20 9.32 9.91 9.32 9.50 9.51 10.05 9.45 9.23 9.44 9.63

Asia and Oceania ................................................. 36.50 35.62 35.49 36.58 37.82 37.26 36.57 37.55 38.79 38.17 37.35 38.36 36.05 37.30 38.17
China ....................................................................... 15.12 15.10 15.09 15.28 15.89 16.08 15.77 15.98 16.27 16.47 16.14 16.36 15.15 15.93 16.31
Japan ....................................................................... 3.70 3.03 3.19 3.56 3.72 3.03 3.15 3.48 3.62 3.00 3.10 3.43 3.37 3.34 3.29
India ......................................................................... 5.08 5.07 4.84 5.18 5.30 5.47 5.12 5.44 5.62 5.69 5.32 5.65 5.04 5.33 5.57

Africa ..................................................................... 4.45 4.45 4.34 4.48 4.55 4.56 4.48 4.64 4.67 4.68 4.60 4.76 4.43 4.56 4.68

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ............... 45.63 45.11 46.22 45.63 45.20 45.33 46.20 46.45 45.74 45.35 46.13 46.20 45.65 45.80 45.86
Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ........ 52.83 53.49 53.86 53.85 54.70 55.43 55.44 55.39 56.24 56.74 56.68 56.65 53.51 55.24 56.58

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ............... 98.46 98.60 100.08 99.48 99.90 100.76 101.64 101.85 101.98 102.09 102.82 102.85 99.16 101.04 102.44

Real Gross Domestic Product (a)


World Index, 2015 Q1 = 100 .................................... 122.2 122.3 124.0 124.9 125.5 126.6 127.5 128.2 128.6 129.5 130.6 131.8 123.4 126.9 130.1
Percent change from prior year ............................. 4.4 3.4 3.3 2.2 2.7 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.5
OECD Index, 2015 = 100 ......................................... 113.8 115.4 116.1
Percent change from prior year ............................. 2.9 1.4 0.6
Non-OECD Index, 2015 = 100 ................................. 128.9 134.2 139.6
Percent change from prior year ............................. 3.6 4.1 4.0

Nominal U.S. Dollar Index (b)


Index, 2015 Q1 = 100 .............................................. 109.5 112.8 117.1 118.4 114.1 113.5 114.2 116.7 118.0 118.2 117.5 116.6 114.5 114.6 117.6
Percent change from prior year ............................. 2.8 6.4 9.0 8.6 4.2 0.6 -2.5 -1.4 3.4 4.1 2.9 -0.1 6.7 0.1 2.6
(a) GDP values for the individual countries in the indexes are converted to U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity and then summed to create values for the world, OECD, and non-OECD. Historical and
forecast data are from Oxford Economics, and quarterly values are reindexed to 2015 Q1 by EIA.
(b) Data source is the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. An increase in the index indicates an appreciation of the U.S. dollar against a
basket of currencies and a decrese in the index indicates a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies. Historical and forecast data are from Oxford Economics, and quarterly values are
reindexed to 2015 Q1 by EIA.
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia,
Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkiye, United Kingdom, and United States.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world) and Oxford Economics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .................................................. 11.52 11.77 12.05 12.30 12.63 12.75 13.07 13.17 13.06 13.08 13.11 13.35 11.91 12.90 13.15
Alaska .......................................................................... 0.45 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.43 0.41
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ............................................ 1.66 1.70 1.77 1.79 1.87 1.77 1.93 1.94 1.92 1.91 1.86 1.92 1.73 1.88 1.90
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ........................................ 9.42 9.63 9.85 10.06 10.31 10.55 10.74 10.80 10.71 10.76 10.85 11.02 9.74 10.60 10.84
Transfers to Crude Oil Supply .......................................... 0.41 0.37 0.42 0.48 0.39 0.51 0.65 0.46 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.34 0.42 0.50 0.36
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ................................................. 3.06 2.81 2.75 2.20 2.27 2.51 2.66 2.27 2.43 2.75 2.83 2.06 2.71 2.43 2.52
SPR Net Withdrawals ...................................................... 0.31 0.80 0.84 0.48 0.01 0.26 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.06 0.00
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................... 0.08 -0.04 -0.12 -0.01 -0.39 0.12 0.41 0.02 -0.33 0.11 0.19 -0.10 -0.02 0.04 -0.03
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ................................................. 0.20 0.45 0.38 0.41 0.34 0.00 -0.27 0.24 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.36 0.08 0.37
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ...................................... 15.58 16.15 16.31 15.86 15.25 16.15 16.48 15.90 15.53 16.31 16.49 15.70 15.98 15.94 16.01
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain ................................................ 0.97 1.08 1.06 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00
Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production .............................. 5.66 5.96 6.13 5.97 6.01 6.42 6.51 6.50 6.48 6.50 6.54 6.55 5.93 6.36 6.52
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ..................... 1.20 1.20 1.18 1.23 1.24 1.29 1.29 1.32 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.33 1.20 1.29 1.33
Fuel Ethanol Production ............................................... 1.02 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.01 0.99
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) .................................. 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Petroleum Products Transfers to Crude Oil Supply .......... -0.41 -0.37 -0.42 -0.48 -0.39 -0.51 -0.65 -0.46 -0.36 -0.36 -0.37 -0.34 -0.42 -0.50 -0.36
Product Net Imports (c) ................................................... -3.54 -4.02 -4.12 -3.90 -3.91 -3.71 -4.16 -4.67 -4.32 -4.22 -4.54 -4.54 -3.90 -4.12 -4.41
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ............................................. -2.07 -2.36 -2.25 -2.26 -2.47 -2.39 -2.43 -2.66 -2.69 -2.63 -2.60 -2.59 -2.24 -2.48 -2.63
Unfinished Oils ............................................................. 0.17 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.23 0.30 0.24 0.30 0.33 0.21 0.26 0.27 0.27
Other HC/Oxygenates .................................................. -0.07 -0.10 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -0.07 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ........................................ 0.38 0.60 0.48 0.40 0.45 0.67 0.58 0.41 0.43 0.65 0.50 0.40 0.46 0.53 0.50
Finished Motor Gasoline ............................................... -0.69 -0.75 -0.79 -0.84 -0.75 -0.58 -0.73 -0.95 -0.76 -0.67 -0.74 -0.78 -0.77 -0.75 -0.74
Jet Fuel ........................................................................ -0.03 -0.06 -0.10 -0.03 -0.05 0.01 -0.06 0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 0.00
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................................................... -0.74 -1.08 -1.24 -1.00 -0.76 -0.97 -1.01 -1.01 -0.80 -1.08 -1.19 -0.98 -1.02 -0.94 -1.01
Residual Fuel Oil .......................................................... 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.01 -0.04 -0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.06 0.02 0.09 -0.01 -0.01
Other Oils (g) ............................................................... -0.58 -0.64 -0.53 -0.54 -0.58 -0.61 -0.66 -0.73 -0.66 -0.74 -0.74 -0.78 -0.57 -0.64 -0.73
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals .................................. 0.42 -0.25 -0.26 -0.06 0.30 -0.49 -0.51 0.45 0.27 -0.42 -0.18 0.46 -0.04 -0.06 0.03
Total Supply ....................................................................... 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.67 20.38 20.24 20.29 20.10 20.38 20.53 20.39 20.01 20.15 20.35

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ................................................ 3.77 3.18 3.17 3.32 3.40 3.36 3.29 3.61 3.76 3.36 3.39 3.76 3.36 3.42 3.57
Other HC/Oxygenates ..................................................... 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.17 0.25 0.28
Unfinished Oils ................................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Motor Gasoline ................................................................ 8.57 9.00 8.93 8.74 8.67 9.13 8.95 8.79 8.58 9.01 9.04 8.71 8.81 8.88 8.83
Fuel Ethanol blended into Motor Gasoline .................... 0.88 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.92
Jet Fuel ........................................................................... 1.45 1.61 1.60 1.58 1.55 1.67 1.73 1.71 1.65 1.77 1.83 1.75 1.56 1.67 1.75
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................................. 4.22 3.97 3.91 4.00 4.01 3.93 3.91 4.00 4.08 3.97 3.89 4.01 4.03 3.96 3.98
Residual Fuel Oil ............................................................. 0.33 0.30 0.38 0.30 0.29 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.23 0.33 0.26 0.22
Other Oils (g) .................................................................. 1.61 1.78 1.94 1.70 1.53 1.79 1.84 1.67 1.55 1.77 1.90 1.63 1.76 1.71 1.71
Total Consumption ............................................................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.24 20.29 20.10 20.38 20.53 20.39 20.01 20.15 20.35

Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Net Imports ............. -0.48 -1.21 -1.37 -1.69 -1.64 -1.20 -1.50 -2.40 -1.90 -1.47 -1.71 -2.47 -1.19 -1.69 -1.89

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) ............................................... 414.2 417.8 429.0 430.1 465.4 454.7 417.0 415.5 445.3 435.2 417.9 426.9 430.1 415.5 426.9
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ................................................ 142.1 186.7 243.7 211.1 174.3 225.4 274.8 229.5 189.8 236.6 275.6 230.1 211.1 229.5 230.1
Unfinished Oils ................................................................ 88.1 88.9 82.3 86.4 88.6 87.0 84.2 80.1 90.7 87.9 86.8 78.9 86.4 80.1 78.9
Other HC/Oxygenates ..................................................... 34.4 29.7 27.3 31.6 34.3 30.1 29.7 29.7 31.7 30.5 30.2 30.5 31.6 29.7 30.5
Total Motor Gasoline ....................................................... 238.5 221.0 209.5 224.4 225.3 223.2 226.6 237.0 234.3 231.1 219.0 230.3 224.4 237.0 230.3
Finished Motor Gasoline ............................................... 17.3 17.1 17.6 17.2 14.7 17.6 17.4 18.3 15.8 16.6 18.2 19.3 17.2 18.3 19.3
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ........................................ 221.2 203.9 191.9 207.2 210.6 205.6 209.2 218.7 218.6 214.5 200.8 211.0 207.2 218.7 211.0
Jet Fuel ........................................................................... 35.6 39.4 36.5 35.0 37.7 42.7 42.7 38.1 38.9 37.7 38.3 35.2 35.0 38.1 35.2
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................................. 114.7 111.3 110.5 118.9 112.3 112.6 118.3 120.4 114.5 116.9 118.1 119.7 118.9 120.4 119.7
Residual Fuel Oil ............................................................. 28.1 29.3 27.4 30.7 29.6 30.4 27.6 27.2 28.4 28.2 26.5 25.9 30.7 27.2 25.9
Other Oils (g) .................................................................. 58.6 56.3 49.3 54.3 63.3 58.3 52.5 52.5 61.6 59.3 49.9 51.3 54.3 52.5 51.3
Total Commercial Inventory ................................................ 1154.2 1180.4 1215.6 1222.6 1230.8 1264.4 1273.3 1230.0 1235.3 1263.5 1262.4 1228.7 1222.6 1230.0 1228.7
Crude Oil in SPR ................................................................ 566.1 493.3 416.4 372.0 371.2 347.2 351.3 351.5 351.5 351.5 351.5 351.5 372.0 351.5 351.5
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equal gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment equals the sum of disposition items (e.g. refinery inputs) minus the sum of supply items (e.g. production).
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels. Beginning in January 2021, renewable fuels includes biodiesel, renewable diesel,
renewable jet fuel, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha and gasoline, and other renewable fuels. For December 2020 and prior, renewable fuels includes only biodiesel.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blending components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) “Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and
miscellaneous products.
- = no data available
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
HGL Production
Natural Gas Processing Plants
Ethane .............................................................. 2.35 2.45 2.42 2.39 2.49 2.65 2.59 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.70 2.72 2.41 2.60 2.70
Propane ............................................................ 1.79 1.86 1.94 1.90 1.89 2.00 2.04 2.05 2.04 2.03 2.03 2.05 1.87 1.99 2.04
Butanes ............................................................ 0.93 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.10 1.10 0.99 1.05 1.10
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... 0.59 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.64 0.73 0.80 0.70 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.68 0.67 0.72 0.69
Refinery and Blender Net Production
Ethane/Ethylene ............................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Propane ............................................................ 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.27
Propylene (refinery-grade) ............................... 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.28
Butanes/Butylenes ........................................... -0.07 0.26 0.19 -0.15 -0.05 0.28 0.20 -0.19 -0.08 0.27 0.20 -0.19 0.06 0.06 0.05
Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

HGL Net Imports


Ethane ................................................................. -0.40 -0.40 -0.42 -0.45 -0.50 -0.49 -0.48 -0.47 -0.49 -0.50 -0.49 -0.52 -0.42 -0.49 -0.50
Propane/Propylene .............................................. -1.20 -1.34 -1.27 -1.27 -1.40 -1.40 -1.46 -1.55 -1.53 -1.46 -1.45 -1.41 -1.27 -1.45 -1.46
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. -0.29 -0.45 -0.37 -0.38 -0.42 -0.41 -0.42 -0.48 -0.47 -0.51 -0.50 -0.48 -0.37 -0.43 -0.49
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... -0.17 -0.17 -0.19 -0.15 -0.15 -0.09 -0.06 -0.16 -0.21 -0.17 -0.17 -0.18 -0.17 -0.11 -0.18

HGL Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 0.43 0.29 0.33 0.54 0.48 0.29 0.33 0.50 0.42 0.29 0.33 0.52 0.40 0.40 0.39
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.18

HGL Consumption
Ethane/Ethylene .................................................. 2.10 2.06 1.99 1.94 1.99 2.19 2.11 2.17 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.22 2.02 2.12 2.20
Propane ............................................................... 1.16 0.59 0.64 0.95 0.98 0.62 0.63 0.94 1.06 0.64 0.64 1.04 0.83 0.79 0.84
Propylene (refinery-grade) .................................. 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.29
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.20 0.18 0.28 0.28 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.23
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

HGL Inventories (million barrels)


Ethane ................................................................. 51.2 51.7 49.9 54.3 53.0 54.2 50.3 53.8 54.1 54.9 56.9 56.9 51.8 52.8 55.7
Propane ............................................................... 36.3 54.1 82.0 76.7 55.8 79.2 99.1 81.0 54.0 71.0 89.5 75.6 76.7 81.0 75.6
Propylene (at refineries only) .............................. 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.6
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 35.7 58.8 81.3 54.5 40.2 70.1 92.0 63.5 54.5 82.0 100.0 71.1 54.5 63.5 71.1
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 19.4 22.7 27.2 25.1 22.9 23.4 30.9 29.3 26.1 26.7 26.9 25.4 25.1 29.3 25.4

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................. 15.58 16.15 16.31 15.86 15.25 16.15 16.48 15.90 15.53 16.31 16.49 15.70 15.98 15.94 16.01
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.70 0.66 0.49 0.53 0.68 0.59 0.46 0.51 0.70 0.57 0.59 0.57
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates ....................... 1.13 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.13 1.20 1.22 1.21 1.16 1.21 1.23 1.17 1.17 1.19 1.19
Unfinished Oils .................................................... -0.06 0.21 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.07 0.27 0.09 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.14 0.19 0.25
Motor Gasoline Blend Components .................... 0.30 0.81 0.64 0.29 0.34 0.85 0.68 0.32 0.56 0.80 0.75 0.37 0.51 0.55 0.62
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ................... 17.53 18.83 18.91 18.17 17.58 18.90 18.97 18.37 17.93 19.09 19.30 18.24 18.36 18.46 18.64

Refinery Processing Gain .................................. 0.97 1.08 1.06 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.49 0.84 0.75 0.36 0.47 0.83 0.75 0.36 0.46 0.83 0.76 0.36 0.61 0.60 0.60
Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... 9.21 9.74 9.74 9.58 9.28 9.83 9.80 9.71 9.40 9.75 9.85 9.53 9.57 9.65 9.63
Jet Fuel ................................................................ 1.48 1.71 1.67 1.60 1.62 1.72 1.79 1.65 1.68 1.75 1.83 1.72 1.62 1.70 1.74
Distillate Fuel ....................................................... 4.79 5.01 5.15 5.09 4.69 4.91 4.98 5.03 4.81 5.08 5.09 5.01 5.01 4.91 5.00
Residual Fuel ...................................................... 0.27 0.23 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.25 0.21 0.25 0.27 0.23
Other Oils (a) ....................................................... 2.26 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.21 2.35 2.43 2.40 2.31 2.48 2.54 2.43 2.34 2.35 2.44
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ............ 18.50 19.92 19.97 19.18 18.54 19.91 20.02 19.41 18.91 20.10 20.32 19.24 19.40 19.47 19.64

Refinery Distillation Inputs ................................ 16.12 16.66 16.82 16.34 15.78 16.75 16.95 16.28 15.93 16.69 16.91 16.10 16.48 16.44 16.41
Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ........... 17.93 17.93 17.98 18.01 18.12 18.27 18.28 18.31 18.31 18.31 18.32 18.33 17.96 18.25 18.32
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor .............. 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.92 0.93 0.89 0.87 0.91 0.92 0.88 0.92 0.90 0.90
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Prices (cents per gallon)
Refiner Wholesale Price .......................... 278 376 311 267 262 265 296 244 254 289 292 261 309 267 274
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ................................................... 364 438 393 341 330 344 361 332 329 358 363 340 384 342 348
PADD 2 ................................................... 352 436 397 345 324 348 360 328 330 363 365 333 383 340 348
PADD 3 ................................................... 341 413 358 300 302 315 334 299 300 333 338 308 353 313 320
PADD 4 ................................................... 360 446 434 358 357 359 392 356 334 370 384 355 401 367 362
PADD 5 ................................................... 452 543 511 478 418 452 480 471 430 459 465 427 497 456 445
U.S. Average ........................................ 371 450 408 357 338 358 376 349 342 373 378 348 397 355 361
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 380 460 419 369 349 369 387 362 354 385 390 361 408 367 373

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ................................................... 57.0 53.6 54.3 56.4 52.7 57.1 58.9 62.6 60.2 63.6 57.7 59.5 56.4 62.6 59.5
PADD 2 ................................................... 56.5 46.7 44.1 46.6 49.5 45.2 45.9 48.5 47.9 44.5 44.5 51.8 46.6 48.5 51.8
PADD 3 ................................................... 87.0 83.9 80.2 81.4 84.1 85.0 85.6 87.1 87.9 85.9 80.1 80.6 81.4 87.1 80.6
PADD 4 ................................................... 8.1 6.4 6.4 7.4 7.8 6.8 6.9 8.4 8.5 7.2 7.2 7.8 7.4 8.4 7.8
PADD 5 ................................................... 29.9 30.3 24.5 32.6 31.2 29.0 29.4 30.4 29.8 29.9 29.5 30.6 32.6 30.4 30.6
U.S. Total ............................................. 238.5 221.0 209.5 224.4 225.3 223.2 226.6 237.0 234.3 231.1 219.0 230.3 224.4 237.0 230.3
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ............................................. 17.3 17.1 17.6 17.2 14.7 17.6 17.4 18.3 15.8 16.6 18.2 19.3 17.2 18.3 19.3
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ............................................. 221.2 203.9 191.9 207.2 210.6 205.6 209.2 218.7 218.6 214.5 200.8 211.0 207.2 218.7 211.0
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD).
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Total Marketed Production ............... 104.80 107.29 109.76 110.16 111.18 112.50 113.54 114.53 114.59 114.25 114.16 115.40 108.02 112.95 114.60
Alaska ........................................... 1.06 1.00 0.96 1.07 1.08 1.01 0.90 1.00 1.02 0.95 0.87 0.99 1.02 1.00 0.96
Federal GOM (a) .......................... 2.06 2.10 2.16 2.12 2.13 1.89 2.01 2.09 2.05 1.99 1.90 1.91 2.11 2.03 1.96
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ....... 101.69 104.19 106.64 106.97 107.97 109.60 110.63 111.44 111.52 111.31 111.39 112.49 104.89 109.92 111.68
Total Dry Gas Production ............... 96.63 98.92 101.20 101.57 102.28 103.19 104.14 105.05 105.11 104.80 104.71 105.85 99.60 103.68 105.12
LNG Gross Imports ......................... 0.15 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06
LNG Gross Exports ......................... 11.50 10.80 9.74 10.35 11.45 11.76 11.42 12.58 12.22 11.64 11.82 13.47 10.59 11.80 12.29
Pipeline Gross Imports .................... 8.89 7.73 7.84 8.41 8.45 7.32 7.87 7.68 8.39 7.03 7.26 7.50 8.22 7.83 7.55
Pipeline Gross Exports ................... 8.46 8.52 8.13 8.19 8.91 8.73 9.12 9.29 9.51 8.89 9.21 9.64 8.32 9.02 9.32
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ........ 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20
Net Inventory Withdrawals .............. 20.14 -10.25 -8.94 2.33 11.97 -11.69 -6.46 2.53 13.92 -12.20 -6.51 2.76 0.74 -0.95 -0.51
Total Supply ....................................... 106.04 77.30 82.49 94.03 102.64 78.51 85.23 93.66 105.98 79.33 84.67 93.27 89.91 89.97 90.80
Balancing Item (b) .............................. -1.52 -1.39 -1.59 -1.63 0.27 -0.52 -1.34 -0.61 -2.00 -2.12 -2.07 -1.04 -1.53 -0.55 -1.81
Total Primary Supply .......................... 104.53 75.92 80.90 92.40 102.91 77.99 83.89 93.05 103.98 77.21 82.59 92.23 88.38 89.42 89.00

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................... 25.97 7.80 3.56 17.28 23.50 7.29 3.62 16.15 24.60 7.49 3.85 16.20 13.60 12.60 13.02
Commercial ..................................... 15.55 6.65 4.74 11.61 14.51 6.43 4.83 11.27 14.72 6.55 5.14 11.37 9.61 9.24 9.44
Industrial .......................................... 25.73 22.46 21.68 23.72 24.83 22.40 21.95 24.22 24.80 21.63 21.28 23.55 23.39 23.35 22.81
Electric Power (c) ............................ 28.11 30.88 42.50 30.88 30.71 33.39 44.75 32.25 30.25 33.00 43.58 31.91 33.13 35.30 34.70
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................... 5.00 5.12 5.24 5.26 5.31 5.37 5.42 5.47 5.47 5.46 5.45 5.51 5.16 5.39 5.47
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......... 3.98 2.83 3.01 3.48 3.86 2.93 3.14 3.51 3.94 2.88 3.10 3.48 3.32 3.36 3.35
Vehicle Use ..................................... 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.18 0.20
Total Consumption ............................. 104.53 75.92 80.90 92.40 102.91 77.99 83.89 93.05 103.98 77.21 82.59 92.23 88.38 89.42 89.00

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................... 1,401 2,325 3,146 2,925 1,850 2,900 3,493 3,260 1,994 3,104 3,703 3,449 2,925 3,260 3,449
East Region (d) ............................ 242 482 759 698 334 646 851 786 387 687 873 799 698 786 799
Midwest Region (d) ...................... 296 557 917 831 417 701 995 900 439 735 1,017 921 831 900 921
South Central Region (d) ............. 587 885 1,006 1,042 919 1,136 1,093 1,109 840 1,203 1,237 1,211 1,042 1,109 1,211
Mountain Region (d) .................... 90 137 184 158 79 171 240 203 125 166 227 197 158 203 197
Pacific Region (d) ......................... 165 240 247 167 74 216 278 231 177 285 316 291 167 231 291
Alaska ........................................... 21 25 32 30 27 30 36 31 25 28 33 29 30 31 29
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer to Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Notes and Definitions (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/notes.html) .
- = no data available
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Wholesale/Spot
Henry Hub Spot Price ......... 4.84 7.77 8.30 5.76 2.76 2.25 2.69 3.38 3.56 3.05 3.36 3.56 6.67 2.77 3.38
Residential Retail
New England ....................... 17.69 20.92 26.28 21.48 21.04 20.48 22.21 17.09 16.78 17.75 21.05 16.57 19.77 19.73 17.17
Middle Atlantic ..................... 12.78 15.58 23.79 16.88 15.60 16.03 20.85 13.55 12.27 13.81 19.13 12.84 15.15 15.39 13.16
E. N. Central ....................... 9.85 14.88 25.94 13.23 11.06 13.28 22.46 10.28 9.00 12.33 20.81 9.79 12.51 11.77 10.43
W. N. Central ...................... 11.30 15.08 24.74 13.24 13.24 15.44 22.10 11.14 9.77 12.69 20.30 10.57 13.09 13.30 11.01
S. Atlantic ........................... 13.85 21.38 31.73 17.21 17.33 20.92 29.82 15.17 13.94 18.75 26.43 14.79 17.11 18.00 15.80
E. S. Central ....................... 11.69 17.04 26.25 15.32 13.63 16.66 22.88 11.90 10.79 14.77 21.85 11.96 14.20 13.99 12.31
W. S. Central ...................... 12.55 20.70 30.82 17.46 14.58 19.81 28.30 14.05 10.83 16.06 23.05 13.10 16.25 16.24 13.17
Mountain ............................. 10.31 12.82 19.22 13.40 12.61 13.86 18.51 12.20 11.45 13.69 18.46 11.99 12.36 13.09 12.51
Pacific ................................. 17.02 17.75 20.46 18.89 20.13 17.11 18.07 16.07 16.53 15.83 16.60 15.39 18.14 18.20 16.06
U.S. Average ................... 12.30 16.51 24.78 15.56 14.72 16.19 22.10 12.92 11.76 14.45 20.20 12.38 14.77 14.88 12.97
Commercial Retail
New England ....................... 12.68 14.64 16.13 15.77 15.19 13.66 12.40 11.10 11.37 11.78 11.93 11.11 14.24 13.37 11.41
Middle Atlantic ..................... 10.34 10.75 11.98 11.97 11.94 9.25 8.21 8.35 8.96 8.20 7.72 8.22 11.09 9.92 8.47
E. N. Central ....................... 8.19 10.61 14.94 10.42 9.20 8.63 10.42 7.13 6.99 8.08 9.84 7.01 9.61 8.54 7.35
W. N. Central ...................... 9.97 11.43 14.68 10.99 11.58 11.33 11.59 8.63 8.50 8.94 10.07 7.86 10.82 10.65 8.49
S. Atlantic ........................... 10.75 12.25 14.25 13.13 12.97 11.26 11.32 10.12 9.85 10.37 10.58 9.75 12.17 11.54 10.01
E. S. Central ....................... 10.32 12.73 15.50 13.38 11.89 10.94 11.82 9.83 9.17 10.14 11.09 9.68 12.17 11.04 9.70
W. S. Central ...................... 9.97 12.69 14.80 12.67 11.01 9.68 10.30 8.51 7.82 8.60 9.31 8.32 11.89 9.93 8.31
Mountain ............................. 8.77 9.96 12.52 11.29 10.76 10.77 11.99 10.76 10.64 11.08 11.79 10.39 10.17 10.88 10.76
Pacific ................................. 13.08 13.56 15.52 14.41 16.85 12.61 13.36 12.39 12.80 11.84 11.96 11.48 13.95 14.19 12.08
U.S. Average ................... 9.99 11.65 14.05 12.11 11.81 10.48 10.90 9.16 9.05 9.51 10.11 8.84 11.32 10.67 9.18
Industrial Retail
New England ....................... 11.27 12.14 12.21 13.60 13.55 10.07 7.79 8.67 9.65 8.79 7.50 8.52 12.22 10.34 8.80
Middle Atlantic ..................... 10.73 10.85 12.16 12.54 7.52 8.97 7.70 8.30 8.68 7.67 7.79 8.48 11.35 7.93 8.38
E. N. Central ....................... 7.67 8.90 10.71 10.33 9.18 6.67 6.53 6.09 6.36 6.32 6.30 6.24 8.92 7.43 6.31
W. N. Central ...................... 7.57 8.15 9.10 8.16 8.23 4.55 4.24 4.81 5.70 4.66 4.54 5.11 8.20 5.60 5.05
S. Atlantic ........................... 7.26 8.61 10.84 8.89 6.92 4.78 5.01 5.12 5.78 5.01 5.15 5.46 8.82 5.51 5.37
E. S. Central ....................... 6.23 8.29 10.13 7.65 5.46 3.75 4.09 4.64 5.25 4.47 4.60 4.99 7.95 4.52 4.85
W. S. Central ...................... 5.33 7.33 8.05 5.60 3.39 2.21 2.79 3.53 3.82 3.14 3.42 3.75 6.60 3.01 3.53
Mountain ............................. 7.10 8.39 10.47 9.87 8.86 7.73 7.75 6.96 6.74 6.44 6.54 6.21 8.85 7.92 6.49
Pacific ................................. 8.83 9.03 9.60 9.44 10.84 8.16 7.96 7.83 8.43 7.26 7.16 7.35 9.20 8.74 7.61
U.S. Average ................... 6.64 7.97 8.93 7.33 6.06 3.76 3.89 4.72 5.34 4.25 4.27 4.88 7.66 4.67 4.72
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price is from Refinitiv,an LSEG company, via EIA (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (million short tons)
Production .................................................. 149.3 144.6 154.5 145.8 148.7 142.3 151.7 142.6 128.6 112.9 122.9 116.0 594.2 585.4 480.4
Appalachia ............................................... 40.3 40.2 40.2 40.3 42.9 42.5 42.3 40.8 39.1 35.4 31.4 30.4 161.0 168.5 136.3
Interior ..................................................... 23.9 25.2 24.7 24.6 25.4 23.5 26.1 24.2 23.7 20.8 21.6 20.1 98.4 99.2 86.2
Western ................................................... 85.1 79.3 89.5 80.9 80.4 76.4 83.3 77.7 65.9 56.7 69.9 65.5 334.8 317.7 258.0
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ................... -0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.4 -1.6 0.3 3.6 0.0 -1.7 0.2 3.6 0.1 -1.8 2.3 2.3
Imports ....................................................... 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 6.3 4.2 3.5
Exports ....................................................... 20.4 23.4 21.1 21.0 24.6 24.1 24.5 24.3 23.1 23.2 22.7 24.7 86.0 97.4 93.7
Metallurgical Coal .................................... 10.5 13.1 11.5 11.4 12.4 12.6 13.9 13.1 12.8 13.5 12.6 13.2 46.5 52.0 52.0
Steam Coal ............................................. 9.9 10.3 9.6 9.6 12.2 11.5 10.6 11.1 10.4 9.7 10.1 11.5 39.5 45.4 41.7
Total Primary Supply ..................................... 129.6 121.9 135.5 125.8 123.5 119.5 131.9 119.4 104.6 90.8 105.0 92.2 512.7 494.4 392.5

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ............... 6.0 -0.7 7.3 -9.4 -20.1 -19.0 5.8 -22.6 -7.5 -9.9 18.7 -4.8 3.2 -55.9 -3.5
Waste Coal (a) ........................................... 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 7.0 7.0 4.8
Total Supply .................................................. 137.4 122.9 144.6 118.1 105.2 102.3 139.5 98.6 98.3 82.1 124.9 88.6 522.9 445.6 393.9

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants ................................................ 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 16.0 16.1 17.1
Electric Power Sector (b) ............................ 123.4 108.1 135.4 105.9 91.2 82.0 122.5 88.5 88.3 73.0 115.7 78.5 472.8 384.2 355.5
Retail and Other Industry ............................ 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.9 4.8 4.9 5.7 26.7 23.9 21.2
Residential and Commercial .................... 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.8
Other Industrial ........................................ 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.7 4.8 5.5 25.9 23.2 20.5
Total Consumption ....................................... 134.4 118.7 145.9 116.5 101.7 91.5 132.4 98.6 98.3 82.1 124.9 88.6 515.5 424.2 393.9

Discrepancy (c) 2.9 4.2 -1.3 1.6 3.5 10.8 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 21.4 0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ............................... 19.7 20.6 20.4 20.8 22.4 22.1 18.5 18.6 20.2 20.0 16.4 16.2 20.8 18.6 16.2
Secondary Inventories ................................ 90.3 91.0 83.7 93.2 113.3 132.3 126.5 149.0 156.5 166.4 147.7 152.5 93.2 149.0 152.5
Electric Power Sector .............................. 86.1 86.9 79.4 88.9 109.0 127.7 121.6 144.2 152.3 162.0 143.0 147.8 88.9 144.2 147.8
Retail and General Industry ..................... 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.9
Coke Plants ............................................. 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6
Commercial & Institutional …………… .... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) ........................................ 6.05 6.05 6.05 6.05 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 6.05 5.98 5.80
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ....................... 0.253 0.253 0.247 0.235 0.236 0.244 0.245 0.250 0.249 0.249 0.253 0.261 0.247 0.244 0.253
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) ........................... 2.18 2.25 2.49 2.54 2.57 2.49 2.49 2.44 2.44 2.42 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.50 2.41
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours)
Electricity generation (a) .................... 1,023 1,025 1,187 996 987 984 1,210 1,008 1,024 1,023 1,227 1,012 4,231 4,188 4,285
Electric power sector ....................... 984 987 1,146 957 948 947 1,169 968 984 985 1,185 972 4,074 4,033 4,126
Industrial sector ............................... 35 34 36 35 35 33 36 35 35 34 36 35 140 139 141
Commercial sector .......................... 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 17 17 18
Net imports ....................................... 7 10 15 10 10 10 11 9 11 12 14 11 41 41 48
Total utility-scale power supply .......... 1,029 1,035 1,202 1,006 997 994 1,221 1,017 1,034 1,035 1,241 1,023 4,272 4,230 4,333
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ....... 45 58 45 53 43 55 59 50 44 68 56 49 202 208 217
Small-scale solar generation (c) ........ 12 17 17 12 14 22 22 15 17 25 25 17 59 73 85
Residential sector ........................... 7 11 11 8 10 15 15 10 11 17 17 12 37 49 58
Commercial sector ......................... 4 5 5 3 4 6 6 4 5 7 7 5 17 20 23
Industrial sector .............................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 5

Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours unless noted)


Sales to Ultimate Customers ............. 949 942 1,119 917 918 906 1,125 931 955 932 1,147 938 3,927 3,880 3,971
Residential Sector ........................... 377 344 454 334 355 319 457 338 378 335 473 342 1,509 1,468 1,528
Commercial Sector ......................... 325 339 394 333 322 330 395 338 330 335 396 336 1,391 1,385 1,397
Industrial Sector .............................. 245 257 270 249 239 256 272 253 244 260 277 257 1,020 1,021 1,039
Transportation Sector ...................... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7
Direct Use (d) ..................................... 36 35 37 35 35 33 37 36 36 35 38 36 143 142 145
Total Consumption ............................ 984 976 1,157 952 954 939 1,162 967 990 966 1,185 974 4,070 4,022 4,116
Average residential electricity
usage per customer (kWh) ................. 2,698 2,459 3,246 2,391 2,530 2,268 3,250 2,404 2,667 2,361 3,332 2,414 10,794 10,452 10,775

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ........................................ 86.1 86.9 79.4 88.9 109.0 127.7 121.6 144.2 152.3 162.0 143.0 147.8 88.9 144.2 147.8
Residual Fuel (mmb) .......................... 5.8 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.3 5.9 5.7 3.9 3.7 1.8 2.6 5.8 5.7 2.6
Distillate Fuel (mmb) .......................... 17.3 17.3 16.2 16.5 17.0 16.9 16.1 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.4 16.1

Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ................................................. 2.18 2.25 2.49 2.54 2.57 2.49 2.49 2.44 2.44 2.42 2.42 2.38 2.37 2.50 2.41
Natural Gas ..................................... 5.93 7.39 8.23 6.86 4.98 2.60 2.89 3.54 3.95 3.07 3.29 3.71 7.23 3.42 3.48
Residual Fuel Oil ............................. 16.59 25.86 26.65 21.22 19.23 17.88 17.66 17.29 17.41 18.20 17.26 17.19 21.58 18.06 17.46
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................. 21.32 30.71 26.71 24.73 22.84 19.91 22.52 23.13 23.51 22.57 22.17 23.12 25.00 22.24 22.97
Prices to Ultimate Customers (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ........................... 13.91 14.96 15.74 15.44 15.77 16.12 15.91 15.18 15.36 15.98 16.01 15.31 15.04 15.75 15.69
Commercial Sector ......................... 11.52 12.21 13.24 12.50 12.64 12.45 13.11 11.91 12.02 12.22 13.33 12.24 12.41 12.55 12.50
Industrial Sector .............................. 7.28 8.28 9.25 8.36 8.06 7.74 8.54 8.04 8.19 7.81 8.51 8.14 8.32 8.10 8.17
Wholesale Electricity Prices (dollars per megawatthour)
ERCOT North hub ........................... 42.73 83.19 130.71 53.01 28.05 57.27 188.81 41.82 38.96 35.33 46.57 41.87 77.41 78.99 40.68
CAISO SP15 zone .......................... 45.20 60.34 110.03 135.13 92.54 30.00 67.59 54.86 51.11 36.99 66.20 52.69 87.67 61.25 51.75
ISO-NE Internal hub ........................ 116.48 73.28 99.14 80.77 52.63 32.55 40.41 44.68 77.16 44.98 76.01 56.70 92.42 42.57 63.71
NYISO Hudson Valley zone ............ 100.10 79.72 104.71 77.17 44.65 31.38 39.45 39.49 52.57 38.35 66.76 43.26 90.42 38.74 50.24
PJM Western hub ........................... 58.33 93.00 110.99 71.60 36.49 35.41 43.27 41.19 40.92 38.15 44.90 39.14 83.48 39.09 40.78
Midcontinent ISO Illinois hub ........... 47.88 89.21 101.80 57.87 31.39 32.13 40.60 39.17 39.36 36.72 42.05 37.64 74.19 35.82 38.94
SPP ISO South hub ........................ 37.25 72.85 109.97 55.87 28.96 34.56 46.96 34.94 37.85 37.95 46.58 37.52 68.98 36.36 39.97
SERC index, Into Southern ............. 42.45 84.96 94.82 59.33 30.53 31.66 36.45 32.89 33.71 31.56 34.63 32.25 70.39 32.88 33.04
FRCC index, Florida Reliability ....... 41.11 78.70 92.71 58.54 30.31 33.06 36.79 33.81 34.16 33.67 36.48 34.83 67.77 33.49 34.78
Northwest index, Mid-Columbia ...... 39.85 59.39 137.82 151.39 105.99 58.61 82.36 87.75 82.08 66.39 84.74 85.60 97.11 83.68 79.70
Southwest index, Palo Verde .......... 39.02 60.50 128.25 130.12 84.19 31.60 71.95 56.90 59.89 51.01 51.22 55.26 89.47 61.16 54.34
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
kWh = kilowatthours. Btu = British thermal units.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Generation supplied by utility-scale power plants with capacity of at least one megawatt.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Solar photovoltaic systems smaller than one megawatt such as those installed on rooftops.
(d) Direct use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual (electricity supply and
consumption, fuel inventories and costs, and retail electricity prices); S&P Global Market Intelligence (wholesale electricity prices).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Sales to Ultimate Customers (billion kilowatthours)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Residential Sector
New England ............... 13.1 10.5 13.9 10.9 12.2 9.8 13.4 11.0 13.1 10.2 14.2 11.3 48.5 46.4 48.9
Middle Atlantic .............. 35.9 29.9 42.5 30.3 33.3 27.5 39.9 30.2 35.4 28.9 42.8 30.5 138.7 130.8 137.5
E. N. Central ................ 50.6 43.6 54.6 42.9 46.5 39.8 52.9 44.4 51.0 42.6 57.4 44.7 191.8 183.6 195.7
W. N. Central ............... 30.5 24.6 31.2 25.6 29.4 24.1 30.9 26.0 30.6 24.3 32.6 26.2 111.9 110.4 113.7
S. Atlantic ..................... 94.5 89.6 113.7 85.9 87.2 83.8 117.1 86.1 96.2 90.9 123.8 88.9 383.8 374.1 399.9
E. S. Central ................. 32.2 27.3 36.6 26.2 29.3 25.4 37.3 26.6 33.0 26.5 38.9 26.8 122.3 118.6 125.2
W. S. Central ............... 56.6 58.5 80.7 51.0 51.6 52.4 87.8 54.5 55.9 53.6 81.9 53.4 246.8 246.2 244.9
Mountain ...................... 24.1 26.2 36.1 24.3 25.3 24.5 36.8 23.7 24.5 26.2 37.8 24.2 110.8 110.3 112.7
Pacific contiguous ........ 38.4 32.4 43.1 36.1 39.5 30.2 39.3 34.1 37.3 30.6 41.9 35.1 150.0 143.1 144.9
AK and HI ..................... 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 4.8 4.8 4.8
Total .......................... 377.3 343.8 453.8 334.3 355.4 318.6 456.6 337.7 378.3 334.9 472.5 342.4 1,509.2 1,468.2 1,528.1
Commercial Sector
New England ............... 12.2 11.9 14.0 11.8 11.9 11.5 13.7 11.9 12.1 11.6 13.8 11.8 49.9 49.0 49.2
Middle Atlantic .............. 36.5 34.6 40.9 34.9 35.0 33.1 40.0 34.9 35.4 33.5 40.8 34.8 146.8 143.0 144.4
E. N. Central ................ 43.3 42.9 48.8 42.2 42.4 41.9 48.3 42.5 43.2 42.4 49.1 42.1 177.2 175.0 176.7
W. N. Central ............... 25.2 24.8 28.6 24.9 25.3 25.1 29.1 25.3 25.9 25.1 29.3 25.1 103.5 104.8 105.4
S. Atlantic ..................... 76.4 83.6 94.7 80.1 75.4 81.7 96.6 81.3 78.0 84.3 97.6 81.6 334.8 334.9 341.4
E. S. Central ................. 21.2 22.6 27.0 21.2 20.6 21.8 27.1 21.7 21.3 22.0 27.1 21.4 91.9 91.2 91.8
W. S. Central ............... 48.2 54.0 63.5 52.6 47.4 51.2 64.4 55.7 50.2 52.1 62.5 54.8 218.3 218.7 219.6
Mountain ...................... 23.2 25.4 29.6 24.3 23.8 25.0 30.0 24.4 23.8 25.5 30.0 24.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
Pacific contiguous ........ 37.8 38.0 45.5 39.2 38.8 37.0 44.6 39.1 39.0 37.0 44.8 38.9 160.6 159.6 159.6
AK and HI ..................... 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.4 5.4 5.5
Total .......................... 325.3 339.1 393.8 332.6 321.9 329.6 395.1 338.2 330.2 334.8 396.3 336.2 1,390.9 1,384.7 1,397.5
Industrial Sector
New England ............... 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.8 15.6 15.1 14.9
Middle Atlantic .............. 17.6 18.4 19.5 18.3 17.3 17.7 19.3 18.5 17.6 17.8 19.5 18.8 73.8 72.9 73.8
E. N. Central ................ 45.8 46.8 48.6 45.2 44.8 45.8 48.1 45.5 45.1 45.8 48.3 45.8 186.4 184.2 185.0
W. N. Central ............... 24.1 24.7 26.7 24.8 24.1 25.5 27.0 24.8 24.4 26.0 27.6 25.4 100.3 101.3 103.5
S. Atlantic ..................... 35.2 35.8 37.1 34.9 33.6 35.2 36.5 35.3 33.9 35.5 36.9 35.7 143.0 140.5 142.0
E. S. Central ................. 24.7 25.8 25.5 23.3 23.2 23.9 24.7 23.2 23.3 23.8 24.6 23.2 99.3 95.1 94.8
W. S. Central ............... 52.4 57.0 59.0 55.4 53.6 62.4 64.7 58.5 56.5 65.7 68.3 60.8 223.8 239.3 251.4
Mountain ...................... 19.7 21.5 23.8 20.7 19.8 21.5 24.0 21.2 20.4 21.9 24.4 21.5 85.8 86.6 88.1
Pacific contiguous ........ 20.1 22.1 24.5 20.9 18.3 19.2 22.2 21.1 18.3 19.0 22.1 21.0 87.7 80.8 80.4
AK and HI ..................... 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 4.8 4.8 4.8
Total .......................... 244.6 257.2 270.1 248.6 239.5 256.2 271.8 253.0 244.4 260.3 276.7 257.3 1,020.5 1,020.5 1,038.7
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ............... 29.3 26.5 32.1 26.6 27.9 25.1 31.2 26.8 29.0 25.5 32.0 26.9 114.5 111.0 113.5
Middle Atlantic .............. 90.9 83.7 103.8 84.3 86.4 79.2 100.0 84.4 89.3 80.9 103.9 84.9 362.7 350.1 359.1
E. N. Central ................ 139.9 133.5 152.2 130.4 133.8 127.6 149.5 132.4 139.4 130.8 154.9 132.7 555.9 543.3 557.9
W. N. Central ............... 79.9 74.1 86.5 75.3 78.7 74.8 87.1 76.0 80.9 75.5 89.6 76.7 315.8 316.6 322.7
S. Atlantic ..................... 206.4 209.3 245.8 201.1 196.4 200.9 250.4 202.9 208.3 210.9 258.5 206.5 862.5 850.6 884.3
E. S. Central ................. 78.0 75.7 89.1 70.6 73.1 71.1 89.0 71.6 77.6 72.3 90.6 71.4 313.5 304.8 311.9
W. S. Central ............... 157.2 169.5 203.2 159.1 152.6 166.0 217.0 168.8 162.7 171.4 212.8 169.1 689.0 704.4 716.1
Mountain ...................... 67.1 73.2 89.5 69.3 68.9 71.1 90.9 69.2 68.8 73.7 92.2 70.1 299.1 300.1 304.7
Pacific contiguous ........ 96.5 92.7 113.4 96.5 96.8 86.6 106.4 94.5 94.8 86.8 108.9 95.2 399.1 384.3 385.7
AK and HI ..................... 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 15.0 14.9 15.1
Total .......................... 948.8 941.7 1,119.4 917.2 918.4 905.9 1,125.2 930.6 954.6 931.6 1,147.3 937.5 3,927.2 3,880.1 3,970.9
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Electricity sales to ultimate customers are sold by electric utilities and power marketers for direct consumption by the customer
and not available for resale. Includes electric sales to end users by third-party owners of behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic systems.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=C#census_division).
(a) Total includes sales of electricity to ultimate customers in transportation sector (not shown), as well as residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices to Ultimate Customers (Cents per Kilowatthour)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Residential Sector
New England .............. 23.90 24.21 24.66 26.31 30.65 29.58 27.58 27.10 30.36 28.61 26.69 26.99 24.73 28.70 28.15
Middle Atlantic ............. 17.19 18.23 18.89 19.44 19.70 19.13 19.98 19.62 19.80 19.56 20.64 20.45 18.43 19.64 20.16
E. N. Central ............... 14.11 15.38 16.01 16.00 16.14 16.58 15.89 15.37 15.32 16.00 15.61 15.52 15.36 15.98 15.60
W. N. Central .............. 11.12 13.09 14.13 12.18 11.85 13.52 14.10 11.87 11.66 13.59 14.05 11.82 12.63 12.85 12.79
S. Atlantic .................... 12.52 13.41 14.05 13.68 14.31 14.74 14.35 13.25 13.45 14.08 13.94 13.03 13.44 14.17 13.65
E. S. Central ............... 11.88 12.96 13.66 13.30 13.17 13.20 12.80 12.62 12.91 13.44 12.93 12.85 12.96 12.94 13.02
W. S. Central .............. 12.02 13.14 14.03 14.16 13.57 13.57 13.50 13.98 13.63 13.85 13.86 13.98 13.39 13.63 13.83
Mountain ..................... 12.09 12.78 13.17 12.92 12.96 13.89 14.00 13.41 13.10 13.76 13.76 13.36 12.79 13.61 13.53
Pacific ......................... 17.89 20.12 21.59 19.06 19.60 22.32 23.44 19.11 19.59 23.03 24.42 19.79 19.72 21.11 21.76
U.S. Average ........... 13.91 14.96 15.74 15.44 15.77 16.12 15.91 15.18 15.36 15.98 16.01 15.31 15.04 15.75 15.69
Commercial Sector
New England .............. 18.41 17.38 18.26 18.47 20.56 18.40 18.72 17.90 19.57 17.63 18.46 18.39 18.13 18.89 18.52
Middle Atlantic ............. 13.95 14.88 16.50 15.17 14.86 14.89 16.18 13.96 13.82 14.68 16.59 14.43 15.17 15.02 14.95
E. N. Central ............... 10.95 11.71 11.97 11.76 12.01 12.06 11.76 10.97 11.28 11.83 11.93 11.29 11.61 11.70 11.60
W. N. Central .............. 9.57 10.59 11.43 10.06 9.95 10.67 11.15 9.53 9.67 10.86 11.43 9.63 10.44 10.35 10.43
S. Atlantic .................... 10.14 10.69 11.32 11.04 11.31 10.95 10.82 10.10 10.28 10.34 10.53 9.95 10.83 10.79 10.29
E. S. Central ............... 11.49 12.00 12.81 12.38 12.57 12.10 12.28 12.01 12.49 12.40 12.70 12.34 12.21 12.24 12.49
W. S. Central .............. 8.54 9.47 10.36 9.60 9.36 8.84 9.54 8.61 8.73 9.01 10.37 9.42 9.56 9.10 9.43
Mountain ..................... 9.55 10.31 11.07 10.42 10.35 11.09 11.67 10.71 10.36 10.90 11.58 10.78 10.38 11.00 10.95
Pacific ......................... 16.12 17.80 20.35 18.24 18.06 18.85 22.53 19.36 18.38 18.71 22.88 20.21 18.24 19.81 20.16
U.S. Average ........... 11.52 12.21 13.24 12.50 12.64 12.45 13.11 11.91 12.02 12.22 13.33 12.24 12.41 12.55 12.50
Industrial Sector
New England .............. 14.85 14.74 15.48 15.01 16.24 15.24 15.65 14.51 15.39 14.50 15.32 14.78 15.02 15.41 15.01
Middle Atlantic ............. 7.80 8.25 9.21 8.36 8.20 7.72 7.88 7.60 8.06 7.68 7.99 7.57 8.42 7.85 7.82
E. N. Central ............... 7.52 8.35 8.77 8.28 8.31 7.89 8.05 7.97 8.49 8.05 8.18 8.06 8.24 8.05 8.19
W. N. Central .............. 7.10 7.94 8.66 7.47 7.44 7.79 8.44 7.44 7.69 7.96 8.57 7.54 7.82 7.79 7.95
S. Atlantic .................... 6.57 7.90 8.83 7.80 7.72 7.37 7.93 7.30 7.92 7.46 7.98 7.37 7.79 7.58 7.68
E. S. Central ............... 6.16 7.14 8.16 7.31 6.98 6.67 6.83 6.55 6.93 6.65 6.83 6.61 7.20 6.76 6.75
W. S. Central .............. 6.09 7.23 8.13 7.26 6.56 5.95 7.19 6.89 6.81 5.86 6.73 6.96 7.21 6.65 6.58
Mountain ..................... 6.55 7.24 8.44 7.84 7.65 7.65 8.49 7.85 7.75 8.00 8.61 8.04 7.56 7.93 8.12
Pacific ......................... 10.28 11.84 13.94 12.50 11.81 12.47 14.89 13.14 12.27 13.19 15.57 13.71 12.23 13.16 13.77
U.S. Average ........... 7.28 8.28 9.25 8.36 8.06 7.74 8.54 8.04 8.19 7.81 8.51 8.14 8.32 8.10 8.17
All Sectors (a)
New England .............. 20.37 19.68 20.66 21.14 24.39 22.26 22.11 21.16 23.89 21.56 21.71 21.46 20.47 22.49 22.17
Middle Atlantic ............. 14.03 14.60 16.08 15.20 15.38 14.75 16.08 14.58 15.04 14.87 16.63 15.06 15.02 15.24 15.47
E. N. Central ............... 10.97 11.73 12.39 11.95 12.20 11.97 12.03 11.41 11.85 11.86 12.13 11.59 11.77 11.90 11.87
W. N. Central .............. 9.41 10.53 11.55 9.93 9.89 10.60 11.36 9.65 9.83 10.74 11.50 9.68 10.38 10.40 10.47
S. Atlantic .................... 10.62 11.38 12.21 11.60 12.03 11.90 12.05 10.95 11.36 11.46 11.80 10.83 11.48 11.75 11.39
E. S. Central ............... 9.97 10.70 11.82 11.05 11.04 10.66 10.99 10.47 11.00 10.89 11.21 10.67 10.91 10.80 10.96
W. S. Central .............. 8.97 9.99 11.17 10.25 9.80 9.24 10.44 9.75 9.75 9.31 10.54 9.97 10.16 9.85 9.93
Mountain ..................... 9.58 10.29 11.22 10.52 10.53 11.01 11.77 10.76 10.56 11.05 11.69 10.83 10.46 11.07 11.08
Pacific ......................... 15.60 17.18 19.43 17.29 17.49 18.63 21.25 17.86 17.66 19.00 21.97 18.60 17.46 18.88 19.41
U.S. Average ........... 11.37 12.14 13.29 12.45 12.66 12.41 13.14 12.04 12.36 12.34 13.27 12.23 12.35 12.59 12.59
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data for average price of electricity to ultimate consumers represents the cost per unit of electricity sold and is calculated by dividing
electric revenue from ultimate consumers by the corresponding sales of electricity.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=C#census_division).
(a) Average price to all sectors is weighted by sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation (not shown) sectors.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7d part 1. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (billion kilowatthours), continues on Table 7d part 2
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
United States
Natural Gas ..................................... 336.5 363.2 507.3 375.8 367.4 395.2 538.4 395.6 368.9 394.6 529.4 395.7 1,582.7 1,696.7 1,688.7
Coal ................................................. 218.2 190.0 235.2 182.7 156.7 140.5 214.1 151.7 152.3 126.0 203.7 133.7 826.1 663.1 615.7
Nuclear ............................................ 195.6 184.4 201.5 190.1 194.5 183.1 205.5 192.4 199.8 193.1 208.7 192.7 771.5 775.5 794.3
Renewable Energy Sources: .......... 226.0 244.9 197.5 201.8 225.5 224.7 206.8 223.0 258.1 267.3 239.5 245.0 870.3 879.9 1,009.8
Conventional Hydropower 69.6 69.1 62.5 52.4 60.9 64.1 58.9 55.4 71.3 79.2 64.9 60.2 253.6 239.3 275.6
Wind ............................................. 118.0 122.0 81.5 112.5 125.7 102.5 86.1 123.1 135.9 110.0 91.4 127.8 434.0 437.3 465.1
Solar (a) ...................................... 28.4 44.3 43.3 26.9 29.1 48.9 52.0 34.8 40.6 69.2 73.2 47.3 142.9 164.9 230.3
Biomass ....................................... 6.0 5.7 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.4 6.1 5.6 23.7 22.1 23.0
Geothermal .................................. 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.4 3.5 3.9 4.1 16.1 16.3 15.9
Pumped Storage Hydropower ........ -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.9 -1.5 -6.0 -6.1 -6.3
Petroleum (b) ................................. 6.6 4.0 4.5 6.7 3.9 3.5 4.7 5.1 5.1 3.5 4.5 5.4 21.8 17.2 18.5
Other Gases ................................... 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 3.5 3.2 3.3
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (c) ....... 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 4.0 3.4 2.1
Total Generation ............................. 983.7 987.3 1,146.0 957.4 948.1 947.3 1,169.3 968.1 984.1 984.6 1,185.2 972.1 4,074.3 4,032.8 4,126.1
New England (ISO-NE)
Natural Gas ..................................... 11.4 12.5 18.2 11.3 11.5 12.4 15.5 12.1 11.9 11.1 17.7 12.7 53.3 51.4 53.5
Coal ................................................. 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8
Nuclear ............................................ 7.1 5.6 7.3 7.4 7.1 3.4 6.9 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 5.6 27.4 23.7 27.1
Conventional hydropower ............... 2.0 2.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.7 6.5 6.7 7.1
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.3 10.9 10.3 12.0
Other energy sources (e) .............. 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 2.5 1.1 1.5
Total generation .............................. 25.1 23.3 29.1 23.5 23.6 20.1 26.7 23.0 24.7 23.8 29.6 24.0 101.0 93.4 102.0
Net energy for load (f) .................... 30.6 26.8 33.5 28.0 29.0 25.6 32.0 28.5 30.4 27.8 34.3 29.5 118.9 115.0 122.0
New York (NYISO)
Natural Gas ..................................... 14.3 15.6 21.1 14.3 13.5 14.2 20.9 14.7 14.3 13.9 21.2 14.7 65.3 63.4 64.1
Coal ................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nuclear ............................................ 6.4 7.0 6.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 7.0 7.2 6.4 7.1 7.0 6.4 26.8 27.5 27.0
Conventional hydropower ............... 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.1 27.4 27.7 27.9
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.9 7.2 8.6 10.3
Other energy sources (e) .............. 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.9
Total generation .............................. 30.8 31.3 35.9 30.4 29.7 29.4 36.7 31.8 30.9 30.4 37.5 31.4 128.3 127.6 130.2
Net energy for load (f) .................... 38.1 35.0 44.0 35.6 36.1 33.3 42.1 36.2 38.0 36.5 45.8 37.2 152.7 147.8 157.4
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
Natural Gas ..................................... 76.0 73.1 102.3 79.3 85.1 81.6 111.3 85.0 82.3 78.9 107.0 83.8 330.8 363.0 352.1
Coal ................................................. 48.9 35.7 42.5 31.1 28.3 22.9 36.0 24.5 33.8 25.5 33.5 22.5 158.2 111.6 115.4
Nuclear ............................................ 69.0 65.1 69.7 66.8 67.6 65.7 70.6 68.5 69.0 64.8 71.9 68.6 270.6 272.4 274.3
Conventional hydropower ............... 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.1 8.4 8.5 9.0
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 13.4 13.1 9.3 12.6 12.9 11.9 10.0 13.6 15.0 14.6 12.5 15.5 48.4 48.3 57.6
Other energy sources (e) .............. 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.1 1.2 1.6
Total generation .............................. 210.5 189.5 225.6 192.9 196.9 183.9 230.0 194.3 203.3 186.6 226.7 193.3 818.5 805.1 809.9
Net energy for load (f) .................... 203.4 185.4 216.7 189.7 192.5 176.2 214.4 188.3 199.6 182.1 219.9 187.3 795.1 771.5 788.8
Southeast (SERC)
Natural Gas ..................................... 63.5 66.7 86.0 64.6 64.1 65.7 82.4 65.1 71.3 75.8 92.4 76.7 280.8 277.3 316.2
Coal ................................................. 32.3 32.8 32.0 28.1 23.6 26.5 38.8 24.2 23.0 18.9 34.9 15.3 125.1 113.1 92.2
Nuclear ............................................ 51.4 51.1 55.4 51.1 51.7 52.9 57.4 55.6 55.8 57.6 59.5 54.6 209.0 217.6 227.6
Conventional hydropower ............... 9.6 7.8 7.7 6.9 9.9 6.2 8.0 9.2 11.6 9.0 8.1 9.1 32.0 33.3 37.8
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 5.0 7.2 6.4 4.7 4.9 7.2 7.6 5.8 5.8 8.2 8.2 6.5 23.3 25.5 28.7
Other energy sources (e) .............. -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3
Total generation .............................. 161.5 165.3 187.0 155.3 154.0 158.2 193.8 159.6 167.3 169.2 202.7 161.9 669.2 665.5 701.0
Net energy for load (f) .................... 157.0 158.2 170.6 151.0 149.1 149.2 171.6 150.6 158.2 157.8 188.9 153.6 636.7 620.5 658.4
Florida (FRCC)
Natural Gas ..................................... 38.8 47.8 56.7 41.1 37.7 48.8 59.1 40.7 37.4 46.3 55.8 43.0 184.3 186.2 182.5
Coal ................................................. 3.5 4.2 3.7 4.1 2.7 2.6 3.9 2.4 2.6 2.3 3.3 1.4 15.5 11.6 9.5
Nuclear ............................................ 7.3 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.0 6.7 30.8 30.1 29.9
Conventional hydropower ............... 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 2.8 3.7 3.4 2.6 3.5 4.2 3.9 2.9 4.7 5.6 5.1 3.9 12.5 14.5 19.4
Other energy sources (e) .............. 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.2 2.1
Total generation .............................. 53.1 64.1 71.9 56.4 51.9 63.6 75.6 53.7 52.7 62.7 72.7 55.6 245.5 244.8 243.7
Net energy for load (f) .................... 52.2 63.6 73.9 57.8 54.4 65.5 77.2 56.7 52.6 63.6 74.2 55.8 247.5 253.9 246.2
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
The electric power sector includes utility-scale generating power plants (total capacity is larger than 1 megawatt) operated by electric utilities
and independent power producers whose primary business is to sell electricity over the transmission grid for consumption by the public.
(a) Generation from utility-scale (larger than 1 megawatt) solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants. Excludes generation
from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (see Table 7a).
(b) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(c) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
(d) Wind, large-scale solar, biomass, and geothermal
(e) Pumped storage hydroelectric, petroleum, other gases, batteries, and other nonrenewable fuels. See notes (b) and (c).
(f) Includes regional generation from generating units operated by electric power sector, plus energy receipts from neighboring U.S. balancing
authorities outside region minus energy deliveries to neighboring balancing authorities.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Table 7d part 2. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (billion kilowatthours), continued from Table 7d part 1
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Midwest (MISO)
Natural Gas ................................... 39.3 46.4 56.1 40.5 45.4 54.7 65.9 50.4 51.6 60.5 70.6 50.8 182.3 216.4 233.5
Coal .............................................. 60.5 51.2 65.0 49.3 43.0 38.0 55.9 42.8 43.7 33.8 56.0 39.9 226.1 179.7 173.4
Nuclear ......................................... 23.8 19.6 24.3 23.7 23.4 21.1 24.3 19.6 23.2 22.4 24.3 23.1 91.4 88.3 93.0
Conventional hydropower .............. 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 9.1 8.3 9.9
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 30.9 28.0 20.0 30.5 30.3 26.5 21.0 34.6 34.9 30.2 24.3 36.8 109.4 112.4 126.2
Other energy sources (e) ............. 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 5.9 4.4 5.4
Total generation ............................ 158.0 149.7 168.8 147.8 145.1 143.0 170.4 151.1 157.2 151.0 178.9 154.4 624.2 609.6 641.5
Net energy for load (f) .................. 167.1 163.4 182.5 158.8 158.6 157.9 184.3 161.7 165.6 162.3 191.2 163.4 671.8 662.5 682.6
Central (Southwest Power Pool)
Natural Gas ................................... 12.8 13.7 25.1 17.2 15.8 21.5 29.9 16.3 15.7 20.5 27.3 16.2 68.8 83.4 79.7
Coal .............................................. 24.0 21.4 31.2 20.5 20.4 17.2 27.1 16.9 17.2 17.9 26.6 14.5 97.1 81.7 76.2
Nuclear ......................................... 4.3 4.3 3.9 2.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 2.9 4.3 3.5 14.6 17.1 15.0
Conventional hydropower .............. 3.0 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.2 3.7 3.1 12.3 11.3 14.4
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 30.7 31.1 22.6 29.5 31.3 25.6 22.6 32.1 32.8 26.8 24.5 32.3 113.9 111.6 116.5
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8
Total generation ............................ 75.1 74.7 85.8 72.2 74.9 71.6 86.9 72.6 73.7 72.4 86.6 69.8 307.9 306.0 302.5
Net energy for load (f) .................. 67.4 67.7 81.7 66.0 66.6 66.6 81.8 64.1 65.4 66.1 80.5 63.5 282.8 279.1 275.4
Texas (ERCOT)
Natural Gas ................................... 33.7 42.9 65.3 40.9 36.4 49.6 71.1 45.9 35.1 44.2 60.9 41.8 182.8 203.0 182.0
Coal .............................................. 17.2 16.2 19.5 15.9 11.4 15.2 19.7 12.8 10.0 12.2 15.8 11.7 68.8 59.1 49.7
Nuclear ......................................... 11.0 9.9 10.7 10.0 10.5 9.0 10.9 10.2 11.0 9.8 10.6 9.4 41.6 40.7 40.8
Conventional hydropower .............. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 30.8 39.1 27.7 28.9 36.6 33.8 33.9 33.8 41.9 44.3 44.2 40.3 126.6 138.1 170.8
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.4 1.0
Total generation ............................ 93.2 108.6 123.7 96.2 95.4 108.1 136.0 103.2 98.4 111.1 131.8 103.6 421.6 442.7 444.9
Net energy for load (f) .................. 95.1 111.3 126.4 97.1 94.1 109.8 140.2 103.2 98.4 111.1 131.8 103.6 429.9 447.3 444.9
Northwest
Natural Gas ................................... 20.2 15.4 27.7 26.3 25.3 18.8 30.1 24.4 20.4 13.8 26.3 20.2 89.6 98.6 80.7
Coal .............................................. 24.1 20.5 29.7 24.7 20.2 14.3 24.0 20.5 16.5 11.5 23.6 19.7 99.0 79.1 71.3
Nuclear ......................................... 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 9.9 8.4 9.7
Conventional hydropower .............. 37.1 35.5 33.0 25.9 25.8 29.9 24.0 23.4 33.2 39.7 30.3 28.4 131.5 103.0 131.6
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 17.9 20.0 16.0 16.6 18.9 19.1 18.8 18.7 21.3 21.3 20.6 19.8 70.5 75.5 82.9
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6
Total generation ............................ 102.0 93.9 109.2 96.1 92.8 83.4 99.5 89.5 94.0 88.8 103.4 90.7 401.2 365.3 376.9
Net energy for load (f) .................. 85.2 76.8 87.4 86.8 88.7 76.7 86.5 82.3 84.3 75.8 86.9 82.1 336.1 334.1 329.1
Southwest
Natural Gas ................................... 9.7 13.0 18.8 13.9 11.5 15.7 22.4 16.3 11.9 15.5 23.4 14.2 55.5 66.0 65.0
Coal .............................................. 6.6 6.9 8.8 6.9 5.5 3.1 6.8 5.2 3.1 3.4 6.7 6.1 29.2 20.6 19.3
Nuclear ......................................... 8.2 7.5 8.7 7.6 8.6 6.8 8.6 7.5 8.5 7.4 8.6 7.5 31.9 31.5 32.0
Conventional hydropower .............. 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 7.1 7.4 7.9
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 5.8 7.0 5.1 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.0 6.4 8.9 8.5 7.5 7.6 23.5 25.3 32.5
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total generation ............................ 32.1 36.6 43.3 35.4 33.5 34.6 45.9 37.0 34.3 37.1 48.2 37.1 147.4 150.9 156.8
Net energy for load (f) .................. 27.4 34.8 42.0 28.8 28.3 32.9 45.8 29.4 28.0 34.2 45.4 29.3 133.0 136.4 137.0
California
Natural Gas ................................... 15.9 15.2 29.2 25.5 20.2 11.5 28.9 23.9 16.1 13.5 26.1 20.9 85.9 84.5 76.6
Coal .............................................. 0.5 0.7 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.2 2.6 1.9 5.5 5.3 6.3
Nuclear ......................................... 4.6 4.2 5.0 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 3.6 4.7 3.6 4.8 4.8 17.6 18.2 17.8
Conventional hydropower .............. 3.7 5.2 5.3 3.0 6.5 10.5 9.2 4.8 6.4 8.8 8.2 4.3 17.2 31.0 27.6
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 13.9 21.6 19.9 13.4 14.8 20.3 19.2 14.3 15.8 22.3 21.8 15.2 68.8 68.5 75.1
Other energy sources (e) ............. -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.6
Total generation ............................ 38.5 46.7 61.8 47.5 46.7 47.7 63.9 48.4 44.1 48.0 63.3 46.6 194.6 206.7 202.0
Net energy for load (f) .................. 59.2 64.4 81.3 63.6 60.5 59.9 76.7 63.2 60.0 63.9 82.6 63.0 268.4 260.3 269.6
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
The electric power sector includes utility-scale generating power plants (total capacity is larger than 1 megawatt) operated by electric utilities
and independent power producers whose primary business is to sell electricity over the transmission grid for consumption by the public.
(a) Generation from utility-scale (larger than 1 megawatt) solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants. Excludes generation
from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (see Table 7a).
(b) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(c) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
(d) Wind, large-scale solar, biomass, and geothermal
(e) Pumped storage hydroelectric, petroleum, other gases, batteries, and other nonrenewable fuels. See notes (b) and (c).
(f) Includes regional generation from generating units operated by electric power sector, plus energy receipts from neighboring U.S. balancing
authorities outside region minus energy deliveries to neighboring balancing authorities.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Table 7e. U.S. Electric Generating Capacity (gigawatts at end of period)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electric power sector (power plants larger than one megawatt)
Fossil fuel energy sources
Natural gas ...................................... 479.4 482.7 483.7 483.6 486.2 488.2 488.0 488.2 488.9 487.3 487.8 488.1 483.6 488.2 488.1
Coal ................................................. 199.4 194.4 191.0 187.9 186.3 182.6 181.4 178.6 177.9 177.4 177.4 177.0 187.9 178.6 177.0
Petroleum ........................................ 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 29.2 27.8 27.8
Other gases ..................................... 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Renewable energy sources
Wind ................................................ 135.0 137.9 137.9 141.3 143.1 144.5 145.3 149.6 150.1 153.1 153.2 156.1 141.3 149.6 156.1
Solar photovoltaic ............................ 62.1 64.5 66.6 70.8 73.1 76.7 82.5 95.1 102.1 110.5 114.0 130.7 70.8 95.1 130.7
Solar thermal ................................... 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Geothermal ...................................... 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7
Waste biomass ................................ 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Wood biomass ................................ 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Conventional hydroelectric .............. 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8
Pumped storage hydroelectric ............. 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.0 23.2 23.3
Nuclear ................................................ 95.4 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.7 95.8 95.8 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 94.7 95.8 96.9
Battery storage .................................... 5.3 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.4 10.8 14.4 18.0 20.4 25.0 25.9 32.1 9.0 18.0 32.1
Other nonrenewable sources (a) ......... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Industrial and commercial sectors (combined heat and power plants larger than one megawatt)
Fossil fuel energy sources
Natural gas ...................................... 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9
Coal ................................................. 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Petroleum ........................................ 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Other gases ..................................... 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Renewable energy sources
Wood biomass ................................ 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3
Waste biomass ................................ 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Solar ................................................ 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8
Wind ................................................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Geothermal ...................................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Conventional hydroelectric .............. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Battery storage .................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other nonrenewable sources (a) ......... 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
Small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity (systems smaller than one megawatt)
Residential sector ............................... 22.3 23.5 24.9 26.3 27.8 29.6 31.4 32.6 33.9 35.2 36.5 37.9 26.3 32.6 37.9
Commercial sector ............................. 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 10.9 12.6 14.4
Industrial sector .................................. 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.8
All sectors total ................................ 34.7 36.2 37.9 39.5 41.7 43.9 46.0 47.8 49.5 51.3 53.2 55.0 39.5 47.8 55.0
Notes:
EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Capacity values represent the amount of generating capacity that is operating (or expected to be operating) at the end of each period.
Changes in capacity reflect various factors including new generators coming online, retiring generators, capacity uprates and derates,
delayed planned capacity projects, cancelled projects, and other factors.
(a) Other sources include hydrogen, pitch, chemicals, sulfur, purchased steam, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
Data sources:
- Utility-scale capacity (power plants larger than one megawatt): EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, August 2023.
- Small-scale solar capacity (systems smaller than one megawatt): Form EIA-861M Monthly Electric Power Industry Report.
Historical capacity data may differ from other EIA publications due to frequent updates to the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.
Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electric Power Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.014 0.055 0.056 0.054
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.253 0.236 0.213 0.188 0.214 0.223 0.200 0.189 0.243 0.270 0.222 0.205 0.890 0.825 0.940
Solar (b) ................................................................. 0.097 0.151 0.148 0.092 0.099 0.167 0.177 0.119 0.139 0.236 0.250 0.161 0.487 0.563 0.786
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.047 0.043 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.043 0.041 0.042 0.041 0.176 0.168 0.168
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.051 0.046 0.053 0.047 0.044 0.040 0.047 0.045 0.048 0.043 0.052 0.046 0.198 0.175 0.189
Wind ...................................................................... 0.403 0.416 0.278 0.384 0.429 0.350 0.294 0.420 0.464 0.375 0.312 0.436 1.481 1.492 1.587
Subtotal ............................................................... 0.864 0.906 0.749 0.768 0.843 0.833 0.773 0.828 0.952 0.978 0.891 0.904 3.287 3.278 3.724
Industrial Sector
Biofuel Losses and Co-products (d) ....................... 0.203 0.202 0.197 0.206 0.199 0.202 0.205 0.210 0.201 0.200 0.204 0.201 0.808 0.816 0.806
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.003
Solar (b) .................................................................. 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.015 0.016 0.017
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.042 0.040 0.037 0.042 0.042 0.040 0.038 0.041 0.041 0.039 0.038 0.041 0.161 0.161 0.159
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.319 0.324 0.322 0.314 0.309 0.292 0.299 0.324 0.318 0.318 0.329 0.333 1.278 1.225 1.298
Subtotal (e) .......................................................... 0.573 0.577 0.567 0.571 0.559 0.545 0.554 0.585 0.570 0.569 0.583 0.584 2.288 2.244 2.307
Commercial Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.022 0.021 0.021
Solar (b) ................................................................ 0.012 0.018 0.018 0.012 0.014 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.017 0.024 0.024 0.017 0.061 0.070 0.081
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.037 0.047 0.043
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.083 0.082 0.082
Subtotal (e) .......................................................... 0.054 0.060 0.061 0.054 0.056 0.065 0.068 0.059 0.059 0.067 0.068 0.061 0.230 0.248 0.255
Residential Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.040 0.039 0.040
Solar (f) ................................................................... 0.038 0.057 0.057 0.041 0.046 0.069 0.070 0.049 0.052 0.078 0.078 0.054 0.192 0.234 0.262
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.111 0.112 0.109 0.106 0.111 0.112 0.109 0.106 0.422 0.439 0.439
Subtotal ............................................................... 0.152 0.172 0.173 0.157 0.167 0.192 0.189 0.165 0.173 0.200 0.197 0.170 0.654 0.712 0.740
Transportation Sector
Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, and Other (g) .......... 0.099 0.118 0.118 0.126 0.140 0.173 0.168 0.175 0.178 0.193 0.194 0.200 0.462 0.655 0.765
Ethanol (g) .............................................................. 0.262 0.281 0.281 0.283 0.268 0.284 0.283 0.285 0.268 0.283 0.289 0.277 1.108 1.120 1.117
Subtotal ............................................................... 0.361 0.399 0.400 0.410 0.408 0.457 0.451 0.460 0.447 0.475 0.483 0.477 1.569 1.776 1.882
All Sectors Total
Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, and Other (g) .......... 0.099 0.118 0.118 0.126 0.140 0.173 0.168 0.175 0.178 0.193 0.194 0.200 0.462 0.655 0.765
Biofuel Losses and Co-products (d) ....................... 0.203 0.202 0.197 0.206 0.199 0.202 0.205 0.210 0.201 0.200 0.204 0.201 0.808 0.816 0.806
Ethanol (f) ............................................................... 0.273 0.293 0.293 0.295 0.279 0.296 0.295 0.297 0.279 0.294 0.301 0.289 1.153 1.166 1.163
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.030 0.030 0.031 0.031 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.031 0.028 0.030 0.030 0.122 0.119 0.119
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.254 0.237 0.214 0.189 0.215 0.224 0.201 0.190 0.244 0.271 0.222 0.206 0.894 0.829 0.944
Solar (b)(f) ............................................................. 0.150 0.230 0.227 0.147 0.163 0.262 0.273 0.186 0.211 0.343 0.357 0.235 0.755 0.883 1.146
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.098 0.092 0.090 0.094 0.095 0.092 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.374 0.376 0.370
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.494 0.496 0.503 0.489 0.484 0.464 0.476 0.496 0.497 0.493 0.511 0.506 1.982 1.920 2.007
Wind ...................................................................... 0.403 0.416 0.278 0.384 0.429 0.350 0.294 0.420 0.464 0.375 0.312 0.436 1.481 1.492 1.587
Total Consumption .................................................. 2.004 2.114 1.950 1.960 2.034 2.092 2.035 2.098 2.201 2.290 2.222 2.196 8.028 8.258 8.908
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
(a) Solar
(b) Energy consumption
energy for conventional
consumption hydroelectric
by utility-scale power
power plants only. Hydroelectricity
(capacity greater than or generated by pumpedinstorage
equal to 1 megawatt) is notpower,
the electric included in renewable
commercial, andenergy.
industrial sectors
and energy consumption by small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (less than 1 megawatts in size).

(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
(d) Losses and co-products from the production of fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel
(e) Subtotals for the industrial and commercial sectors might not equal the sum of the components. The subtotal for the industrial sector includes ethanol consumption
that is not shown separately. The subtotal for the commercial sector includes ethanol and hydroelectric consumption that are not shown separately.
(f) Solar
(g) consumption
Fuel ethanol in the residential
and biodiesel, renewablesector includes
diesel, energy
and other from small-scale
biofuels consumptionsolar photovoltaic
in the systems
transportation sector(<1 megawatt),
includes and it includes
production, solar heating
stock change, consumption
and imports in all sectors.
less exports.
Some biomass-based diesel may be consumed in the residential sector in heating oil.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly, Electric Power Annual,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 21,739 21,708 21,851 21,990 22,112 22,225 22,493 22,586 22,597 22,640 22,699 22,779 21,822 22,354 22,679
Real Personal Consumption Expend.
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 14,995 15,069 15,127 15,171 15,313 15,344 15,493 15,564 15,596 15,633 15,679 15,738 15,091 15,428 15,662
Real Private Fixed Investment
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,976 3,974 3,931 3,876 3,906 3,956 3,977 3,990 3,990 3,998 4,005 4,020 3,939 3,957 4,003
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 249 120 82 178 24 19 47 33 30 24 33 49 157 31 34
Real Government Expenditures
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,659 3,641 3,667 3,715 3,759 3,790 3,818 3,833 3,842 3,851 3,857 3,861 3,670 3,800 3,853
Real Exports of Goods & Services
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 2,354 2,414 2,506 2,484 2,525 2,465 2,518 2,559 2,567 2,595 2,623 2,653 2,440 2,517 2,609
Real Imports of Goods & Services
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,495 3,530 3,487 3,450 3,460 3,393 3,378 3,424 3,470 3,510 3,549 3,593 3,491 3,414 3,530
Real Disposable Personal Income
(billion chained 2017 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 16,067 16,010 16,152 16,239 16,663 16,808 16,780 16,859 17,009 17,137 17,260 17,366 16,117 16,777 17,193
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) ......................................................................... 150.8 152.0 153.3 154.3 155.2 155.9 156.6 157.2 157.4 157.3 157.2 157.1 152.6 156.2 157.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate
(percent) ......................................................................... 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.9
Housing Starts
(millions - SAAR) ............................................................. 1.72 1.64 1.45 1.41 1.39 1.45 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.55 1.39 1.35

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2017=100)


Total Industrial Production ................................................ 101.7 102.8 103.3 102.7 102.6 102.8 103.4 102.6 102.0 101.7 101.7 101.9 102.6 102.8 101.8
Manufacturing ................................................................. 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.0 99.9 100.1 100.1 99.4 98.8 98.5 98.6 99.1 100.5 99.9 98.7
Food ............................................................................ 105.1 105.1 104.8 104.5 105.1 103.7 101.9 102.4 102.7 103.1 103.4 103.9 104.9 103.3 103.3
Paper .......................................................................... 95.9 96.2 92.7 89.1 87.8 86.7 83.3 83.1 82.9 82.7 82.8 83.1 93.5 85.2 82.9
Petroleum and Coal Products ..................................... 89.8 89.6 90.1 89.8 88.5 89.9 90.0 90.3 90.2 89.9 89.8 89.7 89.8 89.7 89.9
Chemicals .................................................................... 102.1 102.3 102.4 100.9 103.2 103.0 103.4 103.8 103.9 104.0 104.4 105.0 101.9 103.3 104.3
Nonmetallic Mineral Products .................................... 107.1 108.0 109.7 110.6 111.4 108.9 108.3 108.6 109.1 109.9 110.8 111.8 108.9 109.3 110.4
Primary Metals ............................................................. 94.9 96.4 95.7 92.5 92.7 95.9 95.5 96.0 94.8 94.4 95.7 97.3 94.9 95.0 95.6
Coal-weighted Manufacturing (a) ................................... 97.4 97.7 97.2 95.2 95.7 95.9 95.6 95.9 95.5 95.4 96.1 96.9 96.9 95.8 96.0
Distillate-weighted Manufacturing (a) ............................ 100.0 100.5 100.4 99.2 99.3 98.9 98.6 98.6 98.7 99.0 99.6 100.3 100.0 98.9 99.4
Electricity-weighted Manufacturing (a) ........................... 98.5 98.8 98.2 96.0 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.6 96.5 96.7 97.3 98.0 97.9 96.5 97.1
Natural Gas-weighted Manufacturing (a) ....................... 97.0 96.7 95.6 92.7 94.0 93.3 93.6 93.8 93.5 93.3 93.7 94.3 95.5 93.7 93.7

Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) ................................................. 2.85 2.92 2.95 2.99 3.01 3.03 3.06 3.09 3.10 3.12 3.13 3.15 2.93 3.05 3.13
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) .......................................................... 2.53 2.72 2.70 2.63 2.59 2.54 2.52 2.51 2.51 2.48 2.48 2.49 2.64 2.54 2.49
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) .......................................................... 3.16 4.21 3.74 3.44 3.09 2.91 3.08 2.72 2.77 2.89 2.91 2.80 3.64 2.95 2.84
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2017=100) ........................................................... 115.2 117.7 119.0 120.1 121.3 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 118.0 122.2 125.4

Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) ............................................................ 8,142 8,910 9,066 8,604 8,363 9,080 9,129 8,743 8,330 9,113 9,294 8,755 8,683 8,831 8,874
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .............................. 656 686 692 700 683 734 727 720 685 716 737 707 684 716 711
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) .............................. 356 419 422 407 390 440 449 435 406 445 458 443 401 429 438
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) .................................................. 225.6 328.7 293.1 285.2 277.6 290.8 248.6 258.8 263.1 316.6 290.6 289.9 283.1 268.9 290.1
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .............................................. 0.253 0.253 0.247 0.235 0.236 0.244 0.245 0.250 0.249 0.249 0.253 0.261 0.247 0.244 0.253

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum .......................................................................... 557 559 569 564 548 563 565 568 559 561 568 565 2,250 2,243 2,254
Natural Gas ....................................................................... 510 373 401 460 501 382 422 463 512 379 409 459 1,744 1,768 1,759
Coal ................................................................................... 244 215 264 212 184 167 229 183 181 153 229 165 935 764 728
Total Energy (c) ................................................................. 1,314 1,149 1,237 1,238 1,236 1,115 1,219 1,216 1,255 1,096 1,209 1,192 4,939 4,786 4,751
(a) Fuel share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey .
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
(c) Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste.
- = no data available
SAAR = Seasonally-adjusted annual rate
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration; and Federal
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System. U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the S&P Global model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2017)
New England ................ 1,031 1,024 1,029 1,034 1,039 1,042 1,055 1,059 1,058 1,059 1,062 1,065 1,029 1,049 1,061
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,855 2,856 2,872 2,880 2,891 2,900 2,936 2,947 2,947 2,952 2,959 2,969 2,866 2,919 2,957
E. N. Central ................ 2,594 2,581 2,586 2,590 2,598 2,611 2,641 2,651 2,649 2,652 2,657 2,661 2,588 2,625 2,655
W. N. Central ............... 1,219 1,214 1,217 1,218 1,234 1,240 1,250 1,255 1,255 1,258 1,261 1,266 1,217 1,245 1,260
S. Atlantic ..................... 3,575 3,575 3,593 3,619 3,638 3,657 3,707 3,725 3,728 3,736 3,747 3,761 3,590 3,681 3,743
E. S. Central ................ 883 882 885 892 898 902 913 916 916 917 918 920 886 907 918
W. S. Central ............... 2,375 2,381 2,419 2,455 2,472 2,491 2,526 2,538 2,541 2,548 2,557 2,568 2,407 2,507 2,553
Mountain ...................... 1,358 1,353 1,363 1,375 1,385 1,391 1,407 1,413 1,415 1,418 1,423 1,429 1,362 1,399 1,421
Pacific .......................... 3,802 3,799 3,829 3,856 3,874 3,898 3,940 3,956 3,960 3,969 3,979 3,995 3,822 3,917 3,976
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2017=100)
New England ................ 97.6 97.9 97.5 96.2 96.1 96.2 95.8 95.0 94.4 94.1 94.3 94.7 97.3 95.8 94.4
Middle Atlantic .............. 95.9 96.6 96.4 95.4 95.1 95.2 95.0 94.2 93.4 93.0 93.0 93.5 96.1 94.9 93.2
E. N. Central ................ 97.4 97.8 97.8 96.6 96.2 96.4 96.3 95.8 95.2 94.9 95.1 95.5 97.4 96.2 95.2
W. N. Central ............... 100.9 101.7 101.8 101.3 101.4 101.8 101.6 100.9 100.3 100.0 100.1 100.5 101.5 101.4 100.2
S. Atlantic ..................... 102.5 103.2 103.2 102.3 102.1 102.4 102.5 101.9 101.3 101.1 101.2 101.8 102.8 102.2 101.3
E. S. Central ................ 100.2 101.2 101.5 100.5 100.3 100.9 101.3 100.8 100.0 99.6 99.6 99.9 100.9 100.8 99.8
W. S. Central ............... 102.4 103.6 104.3 104.1 104.1 104.6 105.3 104.6 104.1 103.9 104.1 104.7 103.6 104.7 104.2
Mountain ...................... 111.6 112.5 112.7 111.3 111.6 111.7 111.5 110.6 109.9 109.6 109.8 110.3 112.0 111.4 109.9
Pacific .......................... 97.7 98.3 98.4 97.5 97.3 97.2 96.9 96.1 95.4 95.1 95.2 95.6 98.0 96.9 95.3
Real Personal Income (Billion $2017)
New England ................ 948 938 937 949 949 952 954 957 963 970 975 981 943 953 972
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,409 2,387 2,386 2,379 2,390 2,398 2,403 2,411 2,428 2,445 2,460 2,474 2,390 2,401 2,452
E. N. Central ................ 2,444 2,424 2,426 2,422 2,439 2,446 2,449 2,458 2,477 2,493 2,508 2,521 2,429 2,448 2,500
W. N. Central ............... 1,162 1,158 1,169 1,164 1,179 1,176 1,177 1,181 1,190 1,198 1,205 1,212 1,163 1,178 1,201
S. Atlantic ..................... 3,389 3,378 3,407 3,426 3,457 3,478 3,488 3,506 3,536 3,566 3,594 3,619 3,400 3,482 3,579
E. S. Central ................ 941 935 939 938 947 950 950 953 958 963 968 972 939 950 965
W. S. Central ............... 2,080 2,080 2,103 2,105 2,124 2,138 2,144 2,154 2,172 2,189 2,206 2,221 2,092 2,140 2,197
Mountain ...................... 1,305 1,304 1,320 1,320 1,330 1,335 1,335 1,340 1,350 1,361 1,370 1,379 1,312 1,335 1,365
Pacific .......................... 2,950 2,923 2,931 2,938 2,937 2,956 2,965 2,980 3,006 3,031 3,055 3,076 2,936 2,960 3,042
Households (Thousands)
New England ................ 6,101 6,090 6,081 6,076 6,073 6,082 6,094 6,104 6,112 6,118 6,125 6,130 6,076 6,104 6,130
Middle Atlantic .............. 16,124 16,093 16,063 16,047 16,033 16,057 16,084 16,114 16,136 16,155 16,174 16,192 16,047 16,114 16,192
E. N. Central ................ 19,058 19,033 19,008 18,992 18,971 18,997 19,031 19,067 19,092 19,111 19,132 19,149 18,992 19,067 19,149
W. N. Central ............... 8,655 8,654 8,654 8,654 8,657 8,680 8,705 8,731 8,753 8,770 8,787 8,803 8,654 8,731 8,803
S. Atlantic ..................... 27,104 27,175 27,241 27,289 27,331 27,433 27,536 27,636 27,718 27,786 27,855 27,915 27,289 27,636 27,915
E. S. Central ................ 7,825 7,834 7,842 7,854 7,865 7,896 7,927 7,958 7,984 8,006 8,028 8,048 7,854 7,958 8,048
W. S. Central ............... 15,856 15,897 15,935 15,966 15,991 16,053 16,119 16,184 16,238 16,286 16,339 16,389 15,966 16,184 16,389
Mountain ...................... 9,792 9,811 9,831 9,843 9,861 9,899 9,941 9,984 10,021 10,056 10,090 10,125 9,843 9,984 10,125
Pacific .......................... 19,052 19,033 19,015 18,999 18,987 19,016 19,048 19,080 19,105 19,124 19,148 19,173 18,999 19,080 19,173
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ................ 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.7
Middle Atlantic .............. 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 19.8 20.2 20.3
E. N. Central ................ 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.1 22.5 22.6
W. N. Central ............... 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.8 11.0 11.0
S. Atlantic ..................... 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.0 30.8 31.1
E. S. Central ................ 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.7
W. S. Central ............... 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 18.4 19.0 19.2
Mountain ...................... 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.6 11.9 12.0
Pacific .......................... 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.1 24.7 24.8
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Heating Degree Days
New England ................ 3,136 785 113 1,982 2,713 816 89 1,958 2,980 828 132 2,054 6,016 5,576 5,994
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,933 669 73 1,960 2,451 654 71 1,835 2,755 662 87 1,881 5,635 5,011 5,385
E. N. Central ................. 3,267 754 101 2,225 2,725 700 94 2,139 3,038 710 122 2,155 6,347 5,658 6,025
W. N. Central ................ 3,486 792 111 2,517 3,168 656 92 2,359 3,183 708 154 2,360 6,907 6,275 6,406
South Atlantic ............... 1,343 189 13 981 1,059 191 10 908 1,295 181 13 891 2,526 2,167 2,380
E. S. Central ................. 1,828 250 22 1,339 1,392 259 14 1,258 1,712 236 19 1,243 3,439 2,923 3,210
W. S. Central ................ 1,336 56 2 802 926 92 1 817 1,106 86 5 772 2,195 1,837 1,968
Mountain ....................... 2,298 732 84 2,012 2,558 727 128 1,794 2,138 701 152 1,815 5,126 5,207 4,806
Pacific ........................... 1,399 604 49 1,296 1,835 661 100 1,103 1,423 576 94 1,144 3,348 3,698 3,237
U.S. Average ............ 2,146 490 54 1,552 1,921 486 61 1,445 2,004 472 75 1,454 4,243 3,913 4,005
Heating Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................ 3,100 853 107 2,103 3,150 859 106 2,093 3,110 856 98 2,060 6,163 6,208 6,123
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,881 681 70 1,904 2,939 689 69 1,907 2,889 685 63 1,884 5,536 5,604 5,522
E. N. Central ................. 3,133 727 97 2,162 3,215 741 93 2,169 3,158 735 91 2,137 6,119 6,218 6,121
W. N. Central ................ 3,221 726 125 2,358 3,319 754 121 2,374 3,295 729 120 2,338 6,430 6,569 6,482
South Atlantic ............... 1,381 187 11 907 1,403 190 10 905 1,357 188 9 897 2,486 2,508 2,451
E. S. Central ................. 1,764 244 15 1,229 1,811 251 14 1,231 1,757 248 14 1,215 3,251 3,307 3,234
W. S. Central ................ 1,144 93 3 753 1,188 95 3 762 1,163 90 3 743 1,993 2,048 1,999
Mountain ....................... 2,173 681 131 1,810 2,193 696 128 1,834 2,207 696 128 1,814 4,794 4,851 4,845
Pacific ........................... 1,457 523 79 1,138 1,441 523 75 1,150 1,469 539 77 1,137 3,196 3,189 3,222
U.S. Average ............ 2,095 478 62 1,472 2,132 485 60 1,477 2,102 483 59 1,456 4,107 4,155 4,099
Cooling Degree Days
New England ................ 0 81 567 0 0 53 474 3 0 99 510 1 647 530 610
Middle Atlantic .............. 0 153 688 1 0 90 582 6 0 185 664 5 842 679 854
E. N. Central ................. 1 256 554 2 0 178 524 18 1 249 608 7 812 721 864
W. N. Central ................ 3 306 735 8 1 319 710 31 5 298 736 11 1,051 1,061 1,049
South Atlantic ............... 157 712 1,200 233 204 589 1,241 221 138 712 1,286 257 2,302 2,254 2,393
E. S. Central ................. 28 597 1,062 36 63 438 1,094 60 34 545 1,129 68 1,723 1,655 1,775
W. S. Central ................ 57 1,099 1,668 170 151 900 1,872 225 104 923 1,626 210 2,994 3,147 2,863
Mountain ....................... 17 474 1,024 67 3 350 1,030 79 21 457 1,032 84 1,581 1,462 1,593
Pacific ........................... 31 223 762 82 26 106 605 81 28 205 720 79 1,097 818 1,032
U.S. Average ............ 47 467 953 90 68 362 943 101 50 444 968 105 1,557 1,476 1,568
Cooling Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................ 0 87 472 2 0 87 480 2 0 83 483 2 561 569 568
Middle Atlantic .............. 0 163 612 8 0 160 617 8 0 154 623 8 783 785 785
E. N. Central ................. 3 238 571 9 1 234 561 10 1 230 566 11 821 805 808
W. N. Central ................ 7 299 682 11 4 292 674 12 4 301 680 14 999 982 999
South Atlantic ............... 146 667 1,188 268 144 674 1,192 272 153 674 1,212 269 2,269 2,283 2,308
E. S. Central ................. 44 517 1,056 83 36 520 1,058 83 41 518 1,076 83 1,701 1,697 1,719
W. S. Central ................ 113 852 1,537 224 101 861 1,549 223 109 873 1,585 229 2,726 2,734 2,795
Mountain ....................... 24 463 954 85 24 461 959 83 22 447 970 86 1,526 1,526 1,525
Pacific ........................... 31 208 664 85 32 214 675 86 32 203 676 89 988 1,007 999
U.S. Average ............ 53 413 890 109 50 416 895 110 53 414 909 111 1,464 1,470 1,488
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on November 2, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of state degree day data published by the National
Oceanic
See and in
Change Atmospheric
Regional and Administration (NOAA).
U.S. Degree-Day Calculations (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2012_sp_04.pdf) for more information.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/) for a list of states in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Forecasts: Current month based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml). Remaining months based on
the 30-year trend.

You might also like