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SYSTEM MODELLING AND SIMULATION (18AI821)

Module 1:
Introduction: When simulation is the appropriate tool and when it is not appropriate, Advantages and
disadvantages of Simulation; Areas of application, Systems and system environment; Components of a
system; Discrete and continuous systems, Model of a system; Types of Models, Discrete-Event System
Simulation Simulation examples: Simulation of queuing systems. General Principles.
Textbook 1: Ch. 1, 2, 3.1.1, 3.1.3

What is Simulation?
A Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time.
 It can be done by hand or on a computer.
 The behavior of a system as it evolves over time is studied by developing a simulation model.
 This model takes the form of a set of assumptions concerning the operation of the system.
 The assumptions are expressed in
1. Mathematical relationships
2. Logical relationships
3. Symbolic relationships between the entities of the system.
Why Simulation?
 Accurate Depiction of Reality
 Insightful system evaluations

When Simulation is the Appropriate Tool

1 Study of and experimentation with the internal interactions of a complex system, or of a subsystem
within a complex system.
2 Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and the model’s
behavior can be observer.
3 The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can be of great value toward
suggesting improvement in the system under investigation.
4 By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable insight may be
obtained into which variables are most important and how variables interact.
5 Simulation can be used as a pedagogical (teaching) device to reinforce analytic solution
methodologies.
6 Can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior to implementation, so as to prepare
for what may happen.
7 Can be used to verify analytic solutions.
8 By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be determined.
9 Simulation models designed for training, allow learning without the cost and disruption of
on-the-job instructions.
10 Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can be visualized.
11 The modern system (factory, water fabrication plant, service organization, etc) is so
complex that the interactions can be treated only through simulation
When Simulation is Not Appropriate
1. Simulation should not be used when the problem can be solved using common sense.
2. Not, if the problem can be solved analytically.
3. Not, if it is easier to perform direct experiments.
4. Not, if the costs exceeds savings.
5. Not, if the resources or time are not available.
6. No data is available, not even estimate simulation is not advised.
7. If there is not enough time or the people are not available, simulation is not appropriate.
8. If managers have unreasonable expectation say, too much soon – or the power of simulation is over
estimated, simulation may not be appropriate.
9. If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined, simulation is not appropriate.
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Advantages of Simulation
1. New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flow, etc can be explored
without disrupting the ongoing operations of the real system.
2. New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems can be tested without
committing resources for their acquisition.
3. Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility.
4. Time can be compressed or expanded allowing for a speedup or slowdown of the
phenomena under investigation.
5. Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
6. Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to the performance of the system.
7. Bottleneck analysis can be performed indication where work-in process, information materials and
so on are being excessively delayed.
8. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates rather than how
individuals think the system operates.
9. “what-if” questions can be answered. Useful in the design of new systems.
Disadvantages of simulation
1. Model building requires special training. It is an art that is learned over time and through
experience.
2. If two models are constructed by two competent individuals, they may have similarities, but it is
highly unlikely that they will be the same.
3. Simulation results may be difficult to interpret. Since most simulation outputs are essentially
random variables (they are usually based on random inputs), it may be hard to determine whether an
observation is a result of system interrelationships or randomness.
4. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Skimping on resources
for modeling and analysis may result in a simulation model or analysis that is not sufficient for the
task.
5. Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is possible, or even preferable. This
might be particularly true in the simulation of some waiting lines where closed-form queueing
models are available.

Applications of Simulation
1. Manufacturing Applications
 Analysis of electronics assembly operations
 Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high-precision scroll compressor shells
 Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing using large-facility models
 Evaluation of cluster tool throughput for thin-film head production
 Determining optimal lot size for a semiconductor back-end factory
 Optimization of cycle time and utilization in semiconductor test manufacturing
 Analysis of storage and retrieval strategies in a warehouse
 Investigation of dynamics in a service-oriented supply chain
 Model for an Army chemical munitions disposal facility
2. Semiconductor Manufacturing
 Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models
 The corrupting influence of variability
 A new lot-release rule for wafer fabs
 Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to proactive reticle management
 Comparison of a 200-mm and 300-mm X-ray lithography cell
 Capacity planning with time constraints between operations
 300-mm logistic system risk reduction
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3. Construction Engineering
 Construction of a dam embankment
 Trenchless renewal of underground urban infrastructures
 Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multiproject setting
 Investigation of the structural steel erection process
 Special-purpose template for utility tunnel construction
4. Military Application
 Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in an Army recruiting station
 Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater vehicles
 Modeling military requirements for nonwarfighting operations
 Multitrajectory performance for varying scenario sizes
 Using adaptive agent in U.S Air Force pilot retention
5. Logistics, Transportation, and Distribution Applications
 Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm
 Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance
 Parametric modeling in rail-capacity planning
 Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal
 Proactive flight-schedule evaluation
 Logistics issues in autonomous food production systems for extended-duration space exploration
 Sizing industrial rail-car fleets
 Product distribution in the newspaper industry
 Design of a toll plaza
 Choosing between rental-car locations
 Quick-response replenishment
6. Business Process Simulation
 Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment
 Product development program planning
 Reconciliation of business and systems modeling
 Personnel forecasting and strategic workforce planning
7. Human Systems
 Modeling human performance in complex systems
 Studying the human element in air traffic control
8. Healthcare
 Modeling front office and patient care in ambulatory health care practices
 Evaluating hospital operations b/n the emergency department and a medical
 Estimating maximum capacity in an emergency room and reducing length of stay in that room.

Systems
A system is defined as an a groups of objects that are joined together in some regular interaction
toward the accomplishment of some purpose.
Example: Production System
OR A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the system environment.

System Environment
A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the system,Such changes are said to occure in the
system environment.
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Components of a System
1) Entity: An entity is an object of interest in a system.
Ex: In the factory system, departments, orders, parts and products are the entities.
2) Attribute: An attribute denotes the property of an entity.
Ex: Quantities for each order, type of part, or number of machines in a department are
attributes of factory system.
3) Activity: Any process causing changes in a system is called as an
activity. Ex: Manufacturing process of the department.
4) State of the System: The state of a system is defined as the collection of variables necessary to
describe a system at any time, relative to the objective of study.
5) Event: An event is defined as an instantaneous occurrence that may change the state of the system.

Examples of system and components

System Entities Attributes Activities Events State variables
Banking Customers Checking- Making Arrival; No. of busy tellers;
account deposits departure no. of customers waiting.
balance
Rapid rail Riders Originati Traveling Arrival at No. of riders waiting at
on; station; each station; No. of riders
destinatio arrival at in transit
n destination
Production Machines Speed; Welding; Breakdown Status of machines
capacity; stamping (busy, idle or down)
breakdown
rate
length
Inventory Warehouse Capacity Withdrawing Demand Levels of inventory;
backlogged demands

Discrete and Continuous Systems

Continuous Is one in which the state Ex: Head of a water
Systems variable change behind a dam.
continuous over time.

Discrete Is one in which the state Ex: Bank – the number of

Systems variable change only at customer’s changes only
a discrete set of points when a customer arrives or
in time when the service provided a
customer is completed.
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Model of a system
 A model is defined as a representation of a system for the purpose of studying the system.
 It is necessary to consider only those aspects of the system that affect the problem under investigation.
 These aspects are represented in a model, and by definition it is a simplification of the system.

Types of Models
Sl. No Model Description
1 Mathematical Uses symbolic notation and the mathematical equations to represent a
Model system.
2 Static Model Represents a system at a particular point of time and also known as Monte-
Carlo
simulation.
3 Dynamic Model Represents systems as they change over time. Ex: Simulation of a bank
4 Deterministic Contains no random variables. They have a known set of inputs which will
Model result in a unique set of outputs. Ex: Arrival of patients to the Dentist at the
scheduled
appointment time.
5 Stochastic Model Has one or more random variable as inputs. Random inputs leads to
random
outputs. Ex: Simulation of a bank involves random inter arrival and service
times.
6 Discrete Used in an analogous manner. Simulation models may be mixed both with
an discrete and continuous. The choice is based on the characteristics of the
d Continuous system
Model and the objective of the study.
Discrete-Event System Simulation
 Modeling of systems in which the state variable changes only at a discrete set of points in time. The
simulation models are analyzed by numerical rather than by analytical methods.
 Analytical methods employ the deductive reasoning of mathematics to solve the model. E.g.:
Differential calculus can be used to determine the minimum cost policy for some inventory models.
 Numerical methods use computational procedures and are ‘runs’, which is generated based on the
model assumptions and observations are collected to be analyzed and to estimate the true system
performance measures.
 Real-world simulation is so vast, whose runs are conducted with the help of computer. Much insight
can be obtained by simulation manually which is applicable for small systems.

Steps in a Simulation study

1. Problem formulation: Every study begins with a statement of the problem, provided by policy
makers. Analyst ensures it’s clearly understood. If it is developed by analyst and policy makers
should understand and agree with it.
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan: The objectives indicate the questions to be
answered by simulation. At this point a determination should be made concerning whether
simulation is the appropriate methodology. Assuming that it is appropriate, the overall project plan
should include
I. A statement of the alternative systems
II. A method for evaluating the effectiveness of these alternatives
III. Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
IV. Cost of the study
V. The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work with the anticipated results.
3. Model conceptualization: The construction of a model of a system is probably as much art as
science. The art of modeling is enhanced by ability.
a. To abstract the essential features of a problem.
b. To select and modify basic assumptions that characterizes the system.
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c. To enrich and elaborate the model until a useful approximation results.

Thus, it is best to start with a simple model and build toward greater complexity. Model
conceptualizations enhance the quality of the resulting model and increase the confidence of the
model user in the application of the model.
4. Data collection: As the complexity of the model changes, the required data elements may also change.
5. Model translation: Real-world systems result in models that require a great deal of information
storage and computation. It can be programmed by using simulation languages or special purpose
simulation software. Simulation languages are powerful and flexible. Simulation software models
development time can be reduced. GPSS/HTM or special-purpose simulation software.
6. Verified: It pertains to the computer program and checking the performance. If the input parameters
and logical structure and correctly represented, verification is completed.
7. Validated: It is the determination that a model is an accurate representation of the real system.
Achieved through calibration of the model, an iterative process of comparing the model to actual
system behavior and the discrepancies between the two.
8. Experimental Design: The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined. For each
system design, decisions need to be made concerning
a. Length of the initialization period
b. Length of simulation runs
c. Number of replication to be made of each run
9. Production runs and analysis: They are used to estimate measures of performance for the system
designs that are being simulated.
10. More runs: Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed. The analyst determines if
additional runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
11. Documentation and reporting: Two types of documentation. Program documentation and
Process documentation
a. Program documentation: Can be used again by the same or different analysts to
understand how the program operates
b. Process documentation: This enable to review the final formulation and alternatives, results
of the experiments and the recommended solution to the problem. The final report provides a
vehicle of certification.
12. Implementation: Success depends on the previous steps. If the model user has been thoroughly
involved and understands the nature of the model and its outputs, likelihood of a vigorous
implementation is enhanced.
The simulation model building process can be broken into four phases
I Phase: Consists of steps 1 and 2 II Phase: Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7
 It is period of discovery/orientation  a model building and data collection
 The analyst may have to restart the  A continuing interplay is required among
process if it is not fine-tuned the steps
 Recalibrations and clarifications may  Exclusion of model user results
occur in this phase or another phase. in implications during
implementation
III Phase: Consists of steps 8,9 and 10 IV Phase: Consists of steps 11 and 12
 running the model  an implementation
 Conceives a thorough plan for  Successful implementation depends on
experimenting the involvement of user and every steps
 Discrete-event stochastic is a statistical successful completion.
experiment
 The output variables are estimates that
contain random error and therefore proper
statistical analysis is required.
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Simulation Examples
Three steps of the simulations
 Determine the characteristics of each of the inputs to the simulation. Quite often, these may be
modeled as probability distributions, either continuous or discrete.
 Construct a simulation table. Each simulation table is different, for each is developed for the
problem at hand.
 For each repetition i, generate a value for each of the p inputs, and evaluate the function, calculating
a value of the response yi. The input values may be computed by sampling values from the
distributions determined in step 1. A response typically depends on the inputs and one or more
previous responses.
 The simulation table provides a systematic method for tracking system state over time.

Simulation of queueing systems

A Queueing system is described by its calling population, the nature of its arrivals, the service
mechanism, the system capacity, and queueing discipline. Simulation is often used in the analysis
of queueing models. In a simple typical queueing model, shown in

 In the single-channel queue, the calling population is infinite; that is, if a unit leaves the calling
population and joins the waiting line or enters service, there is no change in the arrival rate of
other units that may need service.
 Arrivals for service occur one at a time in a random fashion; once they join the waiting line,
they are eventually served.
 The system capacity has no limit, meaning that any number of units can wait in line. Finally, units
are served in the order of their arrival (often called FIFO: first in, first out) by a single server
or channel.
 Arrivals and services are defined by the distributions of the time between arrivals and the
distribution of service times, respectively.
 For any simple single or multi-channel queue, the overall effective arrival rate must be less than
the total service rate, or the waiting line will grow without bound. When queues grow without bound,
they are termed “explosive” or unstable.
 The state of the system: the number of units in the system and the status of the server, busy or idle.
 An event: a set of circumstances that cause an instantaneous change in the state of the system.
In a single-channel queueing system there are only two possible events that can affect the state of the
system.
 the arrival event : the entry of a unit into the system
 the departure event : the completion of service on a unit
The queueing system includes the server, the unit being serviced, and units in the queue.
 The simulation clock is used to track simulated time.
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 If a unit has just completed service, the simulation proceeds in the manner shown in the flow
diagram of figure 2.2.
Note that the server has only two possible states: it is either busy or idle.

 The arrival event occurs when a unit enters the system. The flow diagram for the arrival event is
shown in figure 2.3

 The unit may find the server either idle or busy; therefore, either the unit begins service
immediately, or it enters the queue for the server. The unit follows the course of action shown in fig
2.4.
 If the server is busy, the unit enters the queue. If the server is idle and the queue is empty, the unit
begins service. It is not possible for the server to be idle and the queue to be nonempty.

 After the completion of a service the service may become idle or remain busy with the next unit. The
relationship of these two outcomes to the status of the queue is shown in fig 2.5.
 If the queue is not empty, another unit will enter the server and it will be busy.
 If the queue is empty, the server will be idle after a service is completed. These two possibilities
are shown as the shaded portions of fig 2.5. It is impossible for the server to become busy if the
queue is empty when a service is completed. Similarly, it is impossible for the server to be idle after
a service is completed when the queue is not empty.
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 Simulations of queuing systems generally require the maintenance of an event list

for determining what happens next.
 Simulation clock times for arrivals and departures are computed in a simulation
table customized for each problem.
 In simulation, events usually occur at random times, the randomness imitating
uncertainty in real life.
 Random numbers are distributed uniformly and independently on the interval (0, 1).
 Random digits are uniformly distributed on the set {0, 1, 2… 9}.
 The proper number of digits is dictated by the accuracy of the data being used for input
purposes.
 Pseudo-random numbers: the numbers are generated using a procedure.