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Maths Probability

Maths Probability

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14 views39 pages

Maths Probability

Maths Probability

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swastidip.maji.ds27
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Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions Stat 4570/5570 Material from Devore’ s book (Ed 8) — Chapter 4 - and Cengage | Continuous r.v. Arandom variable X is continuous if possible values comprise either a single interval on the number line or a union of disjoint intervals. Example: If in the study of the ecology of a lake, X, the r.v. may be depth measurements at randomly chosen locations. Then X is a continuous r.v. The range for X is the minimum depth possible to the maximum depth possible. | Continuous r.v. In principle variables such as height, weight, and temperature are continuous, in practice the limitations of our measuring instruments restrict us to a discrete (though sometimes very finely subdivided) world. However, continuous models often approximate real-world situations very well, and continuous mathematics (calculus) is frequently easier to work with than mathematics of discrete variables and distributions. | Probability Distributions for Continuous Variables Suppose the variable X of interest is the depth of a lake at a randomly chosen point on the surface. Let M = the maximum depth (in meters), so that any number in the interval [0, M] is a possible value of X. If we “discretize” X by measuring depth to the nearest meter, then possible values are nonnegative integers less than or equal to M. The resulting discrete distribution of depth can be pictured using a probability histogram. | Probability Distributions for Continuous Variables If we draw the histogram so that the area of the rectangle above any possible integer k is the proportion of the lake whose depth is (to the nearest meter) k, then the total area of all rectangles is 1: 0 M Probability histogram of depth measured to the nearest meter | Probability Distributions for Continuous Variables If depth is measured much more accurately, each rectangle in the resulting probability histogram is much narrower, though the total area of all rectangles is still 1. 0 M Probability histogram of depth measured to the nearest centimeter | Probability Distributions for Continuous Variables If we continue in this way to measure depth more and more finely, the resulting sequence of histograms approaches a smooth curve. Because for each histogram the total area of all rectangles equals 1, the total area under the smooth curve is also 1. 0 M Alimit of a sequence of discrete histograms | Probability Distributions for Continuous Variables Definition Let X be a continuous r.v. Then a probability distribution or probability density function (pdf) of X is a function f(x) such that for any two numbers a and b with a s b, we have Pia f(x)dx | Example, cont Back to the gravel example, the pdf of the amount of weekly gravel sales X is: 3 fos = 5 -x) 0Sxe1 0 otherwise What is EX? 32 | Expected Values of functions of r.v. If A(X) is a function of X, then png) = BAY] = fhe) Fla) ae For h(X) = aX + b, a linear function, E{h(X)| = ElaX + 6] = aE[X] +b | Variance The variance of a continuous random variable X with pdf f(x) and mean value wis oe =V(X)= [ew se)ae = E\(X — E(X))?] = E(X?) — E(X)? The standard deviation (SD) of X is ox = VV(X) When h(X) = aX + b, V[A(X)] = V[aX +b] =a? -o% and o.x 4, = |al-ox 34 | Example, cont. How do we compute the variance for the weekly gravel sales example? 35. | The Normal Distribution The normal distribution is probably the most important distribution in all of probability and statistics. Many populations have distributions that can be fit very closely by an appropriate normal (or Gaussian, bell) curve. Examples: height, weight, and other physical characteristics, scores on various tests, etc. 36 | The Normal Distribution Definition A continuous r.v. X is said to have a normal distribution with parameters « and o > 0 (or wand 0%), if the pdf of X is 2 yyq2 ~(#-4)"/20" where — 00

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